지오 그룹(GEO) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표: 사상 최대 매출, 가이던스 상향

지오 그룹(The GEO Group, NYSE: GEO)은 미국 이민세관단속국(ICE)과의 신규 계약, 시설 가동률 상승, 호송 서비스 성장에 힘입어 2026 회계연도 3분기 분기 기준 사상 최대 매출과 조정 EBITDA를 기록했다고 발표했다. 경영진은 2026년 연간 실적 전망치를 상향 조정했으며, 4분기에도 기록적인 분기 실적이 이어질 것으로 예상했다.

핵심 요약

• 2026년 3분기 매출은 전년 동기 대비 12% 증가한 7억 6,110만 달러를 기록했으며, 조정 EBITDA는 21% 증가한 1억 4,530만 달러를 기록했다. 두 수치 모두 지오 그룹의 분기 사상 최대치다.
• 조정 순이익은 48% 증가한 5,180만 달러(희석 주당 0.39달러)를 기록했다. 지오 운영 부문 귀속 GAAP 순이익은 4,920만 달러(희석 주당 0.37달러)였다.
• 지오 그룹은 2026년 연간 매출 가이던스를 29억 7,500만~30억 2,500만 달러로 제시하며, 연간 조정 EBITDA 가이던스를 5억 6,800만~5억 7,300만 달러로, 조정 순이익 가이던스를 1억 8,500만~1억 9,000만 달러로 상향했다.
• 경영진에 따르면 2026년에 체결된 신규 및 확장 계약은 연간 약 5억 달러의 추가 매출에 해당한다. 총 약 4,800베드 규모의 신규 ICE 시설 4곳은 2027년에 운영을 시작할 예정이다.
• 지오 그룹은 미국 국토안보부(DHS)에 아델란토 콤플렉스를 9억 5,000만 달러에 매각하는 절차를 완료했다. 순매각 대금 약 7억 500만 달러는 6억 5,000만 달러 규모의 선순위 담보 채권 상환에 활용되었다.
• 이사회는 2029년 12월 31일까지 지오 그룹의 자사주 매입 한도를 7억 5,000만 달러 증액해 총 12억 5,000만 달러로 확대했다. 경영진은 추가적인 부채 감축과 더불어 자사주 매입이 여전히 최우선 과제라고 밝혔다.

주요 재무 실적

영업비용은 ICE 시설 가동과 수용률 상승을 반영해 약 8.5% 증가했다. 일반관리비는 주로 추가적인 사업 개발 비용으로 인해 매출 대비 비중이 9.1%에서 약 9.5%로 상승했다.

사업 및 운영 실적

자가 보유 및 임차 보안 서비스 부문 매출은 전년 동기 대비 약 4,600만 달러(13%) 증가했다. 이는 신규 ICE 계약에 따라 가동된 3개 자사 보유 시설이 견인했으나, 오클라호마주 로턴 시설 매각으로 인한 매출 감소로 일부 상쇄되었다.

단순 위탁 관리 계약 매출은 노스플로리다 구금시설을 관리하는 합작법인과 호송 매출 증가에 힘입어 약 3,100만 달러(19%) 증가했다.

지오 그룹이 운영 중인 ICE 시설의 현재 수용 인원은 약 2만 4,000명으로, 경영진이 언급한 미국 전체 ICE 수용 인원 약 7만 3,000명의 약 3분의 1을 차지했다. 계획된 신규 가동이 완료되면 지오 그룹은 29개 시설에 걸쳐 약 3만 3,000개의 계약 베드를 확보할 것으로 예상된다.

회사는 2027년으로 예정된 3대 주요 ICE 프로젝트의 개요를 다음과 같이 설명했다.

• 1,188베드 규모의 빅혼(Bighorn) 시설은 2027년 1분기 운영을 시작해 첫해에 약 8,500만 달러의 연간 매출을 창출할 것으로 예상된다.
• 1,320베드 규모의 리버스(Rivers) 시설 역시 2027년 1분기에 시작해 첫해 약 8,000만 달러의 연간 매출을 올릴 것으로 예상된다.
• 2,329베드 규모의 빅스프링(Big Spring) 콤플렉스는 2027년 2분기부터 가동되어 첫해 약 2억 달러의 연간 매출을 창출할 것으로 예상된다.

ICE는 이들 시설의 재가동에 필요한 자본적 지출을 보전하고 초기 가동 비용에 대한 자금을 제공할 예정이다. 또한 이 3개 프로젝트는 2027년에 정상화되면 연간 총 약 2,800만 달러의 호송 서비스 매출을 창출할 것으로 예상된다.

지오 그룹은 4개 자사 보유 시설에 걸쳐 약 2,900개의 유휴 베드를 보유하고 있다. 경영진은 이를 100% 가동할 경우 연간 총 약 1억 7,000만 달러의 추가 매출이 발생할 수 있다고 추산했다. 기존 가동 시설은 해당 분기 말 기준 93%의 수용률을 기록해, 신규 시설을 고려하지 않더라도 산술적으로 7%의 가동률 확대 여력이 남아 있다.

전자 감독 및 모니터링 부문 매출은 전년 동기 대비 약 1.6% 증가하며 수년간 이어진 감소세를 반전시켰다. 집중감독출두프로그램(ISAP)의 총 관리 인원은 3개월 전 18만 4,000명에서 약 19만 명으로 늘어났다. GPS 전자발찌 착용 대상자는 2025년 초 1만 7,000명에서 약 5만 8,000명으로 급증했으며, 약 12만 1,000명의 대상자가 사례 관리 서비스를 받았다. 소재 추적 계약은 3분기에 약 300만 달러의 매출을 기록했다.

경영진 가이던스

GAAP 순이익 가이던스에는 아델란토 콤플렉스 매각에 따른 이익이 포함되어 있다. 회사에 따르면 중간값 기준 2026년 연간 조정 순이익은 2025년 대비 56% 증가하고, 조정 EBITDA는 23% 증가할 전망이다.

지오 그룹은 2026년 연간 비보전 자본적 지출이 1억 4,000만~1억 5,000만 달러에 달할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 경영진은 2027년에는 일반적인 비보전 자본적 지출이 약 1억 달러 수준으로 감소할 것으로 내다봤다.

경영진은 2027년의 잠재적 성장 동력으로 신규 ICE 시설 4곳의 가동, 기존 운영 시설의 가동률 상승, 유휴 설비의 재가동 가능성, 2027년 7월 1일로 예정된 플로리다주 그레이스빌 및 베이 시설 계약 전환, ISAP 수익 믹스의 추가 개선, 호송 서비스 성장, 소재 추적 서비스 이용 증가 등을 꼽았다.

재무제표 및 자본 배분

아델란토 매각과 채무 상환 이후 지오 그룹의 잔여 회사채는 2031년 만기인 6억 2,500만 달러 규모의 선순위 무담보 채권으로 구성된다. 현금과 회전신용 한도를 포함한 가용 유동성은 약 6억 달러이며, 순레버리지는 조정 EBITDA 대비 약 1배 수준이다.

경영진은 순레버리지를 해당 수준 이하로 유지할 방침이다. 지오 그룹은 특정 레버리지 기준치 미만을 유지하는 한 자사주 매입을 포함한 제한적 지급을 제한 없이 집행할 수 있다고 밝혔다. 또한 회사는 조기 자사주 매입(ASR) 구조도 검토하고 있다.

리스크 및 주목할 점

• 지오 그룹은 최대 4개의 추가 시설을 ICE에 매각하는 방안을 협상 중이나, 아직 확정된 계약은 체결되지 않았다. 경영진은 정부 측 일정을 예측하기 어렵고 거래가 성사되지 않을 수도 있다고 경고했다.
• 지오 그룹은 잠재적 자산 매각 조건의 일환으로 장기 지원 서비스 계약 유지를 요구하고 있다. 경영진은 이러한 요건이 복잡성을 더해 협상 기간이 길어질 수 있다고 밝혔다.
• ISAP 참여 인원은 완만하게 증가하는 데 그쳤으나, 고단가인 발찌 착용과 사례 관리 서비스로의 전환 덕분에 매출 믹스는 개선되었다.
• 아델란토 시설 관리 계약과 관련한 소유권 관련 가격 책정은 여전히 협상 중이다. 경영진은 인력 및 서비스 확대를 통해 소유권 관련 자금 지원 감소분을 상쇄할 수 있을 것으로 기대하고 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

수용 능력과 관련해 경영진은 기존 포트폴리오의 93% 수용률이 7%의 추가 가동률 상승 여력을 의미한다고 밝혔다. 아울러 지오 그룹은 1월 1일까지 신규 시설 2곳에서 약 2,500베드를 가동하고, 이어 3월 1일까지 시설 2곳에서 약 2,300베드를 추가로 개소할 것으로 예상했다.

ISAP와 관련해 경영진은 정부가 구금 수용 능력 확충을 우선시함에 따라 2년 전 예상했던 만큼 프로그램이 확대되지 못했다고 설명했다. 그럼에도 지오 그룹은 구금 수용 시설이 확충됨에 따라, 특히 전자발찌 착용과 더욱 집중적인 사례 관리로의 전환을 통해 해당 프로그램이 확장될 것으로 전망했다.

잠재적 자산 매각 대금과 관련해 경영진은 대규모 대금이 유입될 경우 부채 감축과 주주 환원 모두에 활용하는 방안을 고려할 것이라고 밝혔다. 지오 그룹은 추가 거래가 성사될 경우 조기 자사주 매입(ASR) 구조를 검토할 예정이다.

경영진은 아델란토 시설의 인력 확충에 따른 약 6,000만 달러의 연간 매출 증가분이 2026년 가이던스에 포함되어 있다고 확인했다. 4분기에 예상되는 설비투자 증가는 주로 ICE 시설 가동과 연초부터 지연된 일부 프로젝트에 기인한다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Pablo Páez, Executive Vice President of Corporate Relations. Please go ahead.

Pablo Paez

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for today's discussion of The GEO Group's third quarter 2026 earnings results. With us today are George Zoley, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Founder, and Brian Evans, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

This afternoon, we will discuss our third quarter results as well as our outlook. We will conclude the call with a question-and-answer session. This conference call is also being webcast live on our investor website at investors.geogroup.com. Today, we will discuss non-GAAP basis information. A reconciliation from non-GAAP basis information to GAAP basis results is included in the press release and the supplemental disclosure we issued this morning.

Additionally, much of the information we will discuss today, including the answers we give in response to your questions, may include forward-looking statements regarding our beliefs and current expectations with respect to various matters. These forward-looking statements are intended to fall within the safe harbor provisions of the securities laws. Our actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors contained in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including the Form 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports. With that, please allow me to turn this call over to our Chairman, CEO, and Founder, George Zoley. George?

George Zoley

Thank you, Pablo, and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Our diversified business units have continued to deliver strong financial and operational performance through 2026, and our third quarter 2026 results marked a record-breaking quarter for GEO. Compared to the same period in 2025, our third quarter 2026 revenues increased 12% to approximately $761.1 million, while our third quarter 2026 net income attributable to GEO operations was approximately $49.2 million. Compared to the same period in 2025, our third quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA increased 21% to approximately $145.3 million, and our adjusted net income increased 48% to approximately $51.8 million. These results represent the highest level of quarterly revenues and adjusted EBITDA ever reported in our company's history. Even better-than-expected performance in 2026 has been driven by the significant revenue growth from the new contracts that we entered into throughout 2025. They included the activation of 4 facilities to house ICE detainees, totaling 6,000 beds, valued at approximately $280 million in annual revenues.

So far in 2026, we have had an even more successful year for the new expanded services, entering into new contracts for the activation of 4 additional facilities to house ICE detainees, totaling approximately 4,800 beds. These contracts, along with the expanded scope of services at existing facilities, created an overall value of approximately $500 million in incremental annual revenues. First, we entered into a 5-year support services contract with ICE for the activation of a federal immigration processing center at the 1,188-bed Bighorn facility in Hudson, Colorado, while also entering into a lease agreement with the facility owner. The Bighorn support services contract is expected to generate approximately $85 million in annual revenues in the first full year of operations, starting in the first quarter of 2027.

We then entered into a 5-year support services contract with ICE for the activation of a federal immigration processing center in the GEO-owned 1,320-bed Rivers facility in Winton, North Carolina. The Rivers support services contract is expected to generate approximately $80 million in annual revenues in the first full year of operations, also starting in the first quarter of 2027. More recently, we announced earlier this week the city of Big Spring in Texas has entered into a 10-year intergovernmental service agreement with ICE for the activation of a federal immigration processing center at the 2,329-bed Big Spring Complex comprised of a 1,404-bed Flightline facility and the 925-bed Cedar Hill facility.

GEO will provide support services at the Big Spring Complex, which is expected to generate approximately $200 million in annual revenues for GEO in the first full year of operations, starting in the second quarter of 2027. Under all 3 of these contracts, ICE will reimburse GEO for the capital expenditures needed to reactivate these 4 facilities, as well as providing funding for startup expenses during the activation period. Following the activation of these 4 facilities, our total ICE beds under contract will increase to approximately 33,000 beds at 29 facilities. The current census across our active ICE facilities is approximately 24,000, representing approximately one-third of the current national ICE population of approximately 73,000.

Over the past 2 quarters, we have also entered into new or modified contracts for the continued provision of support services at existing ICE processing centers. First, during the third quarter, we entered into a contract modification to increase staffing levels at the 1,940-bed Adelanto ICE Processing Center to support the increase in the scope of services at the facility, adding $60 million in incremental annual revenues. More recently, last week, we announced that we have entered into a new 10-year management contract with expanded support services at incremental annual revenue value of $50 million at the GEO-owned 1,635-bed Northwest ICE Processing Center in Tacoma, Washington.

The new 10-year contract is expected to generate approximately $140 million in total annual revenues for GEO and continue through October 27, 2036, making it the first contract we have entered into with ICE with a full base term of 10 years. This new contract was awarded under an ongoing procurement that involves 3 other GEO-owned facilities: the Aurora facility, the Moshannon Valley facility, and Broward ICE Processing Center, which are also expected to receive new 10-year contract awards.

ICE enforcement initiatives nationwide are supported by significant funding that has already been approved by the United States Congress. ICE was allocated $45 billion for detention under the One Big Beautiful Bill, which is available through September 30, 2029. We believe that less than $10 billion of the $45 billion has been spent so far. Under the Secure America Act, ICE also received $38.5 billion in baseline appropriations funding, as well as an additional $30 billion for other priorities under the One Big Beautiful Bill, all of which is also available through September 30. As ICE continues to pursue these enforcement initiatives, we expect GEO to continue to be part of the solution as a 40-year partner to the agency.

Following our recent contract announcements, we now have approximately 2,900 idle beds that remain available at 4 company-owned facilities, which are well-suited for the needs of the federal government. At full capacity, these 2,900 idle beds could generate approximately $170 million in combined incremental revenues. Additionally, we have expansion capacity of several thousands of beds at existing GEO-managed ICE facilities. Our third quarter 2026 results also reflect a significant expansion in our secure transportation services on behalf of ICE and the U.S. Marshals Service as a result of new or amended contracts we entered into in 2025. The support services that we provide under ICE air transportation subcontracts have continued to steadily grow, driven by the increase in the number of removal flights. Additionally, our new Bighorn, Rivers, and Big Spring contracts with ICE are expected to generate approximately $28 million in combined additional annual transportation services revenues once normalized in 2027.

Importantly, during the third quarter of 2026, our ISAP contract continued to experience a steady technology shift to more intensive and higher-priced monitoring devices, such as ankle monitors. ISAP is the only ICE program currently in place to provide electronic monitoring and case management services for individuals on the non-detained docket. The program relies on several forms of monitoring, including GPS ankle bracelets or wrist-worn devices that provide real-time tracking, as well as the SmartLink phone app, which relies on facial recognition, voice ID, and GPS to confirm a person's location during the predetermined check-in.

The current overall ISAP count is approximately 190,000 participants, up from 184,000 participants 3 months ago. The number of ISAP participants on GPS ankle monitors has increased to approximately 58,000 currently from 17,000 early in 2025. We also continue to experience a steady increase in the number of ISAP participants assigned to case management services, which involves staff interaction and monitoring for approximately 121,000 individuals currently. As a result of these trends, revenue and net operating income for our electronic monitoring and supervision services segment increased during the third quarter of 2026 compared to the same period a year ago, reversing a multi-year trend of revenue and net operating income declines. Additionally, during the third quarter of 2026, we generated revenues of approximately $3 million from our skip tracing contracts.

Moving to our outlook, we have increased our net income and adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 to reflect the strength of our results in the first 3 quarters of the year. Our fourth quarter 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance exceeds our third quarter 2026 results, positioning GEO to set another record-breaking quarter. Looking forward to 2027, there are several sources of future upside compared to our 2026 guidance. They include the expected activation of 4 new ICE facilities at Bighorn, Rivers, and the Big Spring Complex; additional growth in our secure services segment from the reactivation of additional idle facilities and/or higher overall populations across our active facilities; the expected transition of our previously announced managed-only contracts for the 1,884-bed Graceville facility and the 985-bed Bay facility in the state of Florida, which are expected to occur on July 1, 2027; additional volume increases and/or accelerated technology service mix in our ISAP contract; additional growth in our secure transportation services business; and additional revenue from higher utilization of our skip tracing contracts.

Before I turn the call over to our CFO, Shayn March, for a more detailed review of our third quarter results and guidance, I'd like to provide you with an update regarding the plan by ICE and DHS to purchase existing privately-owned turnkey ICE processing centers. As we announced last month, we completed the sale of our 1,280-bed Adelanto West ICE Processing Center, 660-bed Adelanto East ICE Processing Center, and our 704-bed Desert View Annex to DHS for an aggregate gross sales price of $950 million, with net proceeds after taxes and transaction fees and expenses of approximately $705 million. We expect to continue providing support services at the Adelanto Complex under our existing contract with ICE, which has a full effective term through December 19, 2034.

We used proceeds from the sales for the redemption of our $650 million 2029 senior secured notes, and we also entered into an amended and restated credit agreement extending the maturity of our $550 million revolving credit facility to July 2031, while also increasing our restricted payment capacity, including share repurchases. Following the redemption of the 2029 senior secured notes, our total outstanding corporate debt consists of our 2031 senior unsecured notes totaling $625 million. As we previously announced, our board of directors has increased our share repurchase authorization, which is effective through December 31, 2029, by $750 million to $1.25 billion. Based on our current leverage and so long as we remain below specified leverage levels, GEO is permitted to make unlimited restricted payments, including share repurchases, under both the amended credit facility agreement and the senior unsecured note indenture.

Given the intrinsic value of our assets, including 48,000 owned beds, our strong financial performance in providing diversified secured support services, and our expected future growth, we believe that our stock continues to be significantly undervalued and offers a very attractive investment opportunity. Therefore, in addition to further debt reduction and other general corporate purposes, we intend to allocate a substantial portion of future facility sales proceeds and recurring free cash flow toward our expanded share repurchase authorization, which may include structured share repurchases on an accelerated basis.

Following the recently completed asset sales, ICE now uses approximately 34 existing detention sites nationwide that are owned and operated by private contractors. CoreCivic now owns and operates approximately 12 ICE detention facilities, while GEO owns and operates 20 ICE detention facilities. In addition to the facility sales we completed last month, we remain engaged in an active process for the sale of multiple other company-owned facilities to ICE, subject to mutual agreement on price and GEO's continued management of those facilities under long-term support services contracts. We believe we have 2 types of assets: the buildings and the businesses of providing support services. We are pursuing additional potential sales of the buildings, but we want to retain the business of providing support services.

We continue to consider ourselves primarily a support services operator and will place particular importance on our ability to continue our support services at any additional facility sold to ICE. Specifically, we believe that our current active negotiations could result in additional sales before the end of 2026 for up to 4 additional facilities. We believe that future sales are likely to have similar valuations to the transactions that have already been completed by ICE, with standard adjustments with respect to geography, facility size, and age. And it is possible that the number of facilities targeted for acquisition by ICE could continue to grow in the future.

At this time, there is no definitive agreement in place and no precise timeline for the closing of any additional transactions, and GEO can provide no assurance that any additional transactions will, in fact, occur. While the exact timing of government actions is always difficult to estimate, we remain focused on pursuing new growth opportunities and allocating capital to enhance long-term value for our shareholders. At this time, I will turn the call over to Shayn to review our quarterly results and increased guidance.

Shayn March

Thank you, George. Good afternoon, everyone. The third quarter of 2026 set all-time highs for GEO in quarterly revenues and adjusted EBITDA, and also an all-time high in quarterly adjusted net income under a non-REIT corporate structure. Revenues for the third quarter of 2026 increased to approximately $761.1 million, up from approximately $682.3 million for the prior year's third quarter, reflecting a 12% increase. For the third quarter of 2026, we reported net income attributable to GEO operations of approximately $49.2 million, or $0.37 per diluted share. This compares to net income attributable to GEO operations of approximately $173.9 million, or $1.24 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2025, which included the $228 million gain on the sale of the Lawton, Oklahoma facility. Adjusting for unusual and non-recurring items, third quarter 2026 adjusted net income increased to approximately $51.8 million, or $0.39 per diluted share, from approximately $35 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, in the prior year's third quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 increased to approximately $145.3 million, up from approximately $120.1 million in the prior year's third quarter, reflecting a 21% increase.

Driving this historical quarterly performance, our owned and leased secured services revenues increased by approximately $46 million, or 13%, compared to the prior year's third quarter. This increase was driven by the activation of 3 company-owned facilities under new contracts with ICE, which was partly offset by revenue lost from the sale of the Lawton, Oklahoma facility. Quarterly revenues for our managed-only contracts increased by approximately $31 million, or 19%, from the prior year's third quarter. This increase was primarily driven by the joint venture agreement for the management of the North Florida Detention Facility, as well as certain transportation revenue increases that are reported in this segment. Quarterly revenues for our owned and leased reentry services increased by approximately $3.5 million, partly offset by a $3 million decline in non-residential services revenues compared to the prior year's third quarter. Finally, third quarter 2026 revenues for our electronic monitoring and supervision services increased by approximately 1.6% compared to the third quarter of 2025, reversing a multi-year trend of quarterly revenue declines for this important segment and demonstrating the strength of the favorable technology and case management mix shift in our ISAP contract, which more than offset some price reductions previously reported.

Turning to expenses, during the third quarter of 2026, our operating expenses increased by approximately 8.5% as a result of the activation of our ICE facility contracts and increased occupancy compared to the prior year's third quarter. The general and administrative expenses for the third quarter of 2026 increased modestly to approximately 9.5% of revenue from approximately 9.1% of the prior year's third quarter revenue, the result of additional business development expenses. Our third quarter 2026 net interest expense remained steady at approximately $36 million compared to the prior year's third quarter. Our effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2026 was approximately 27%.

Moving to our outlook, we have updated our guidance for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2026. In the fourth quarter of 2026, we've increased our GAAP net income guidance to a range of $591 million to $595.5 million, which includes the gain on the sale of the Adelanto, California ICE complex. We've also increased fourth quarter 2026 adjusted net income guidance to a range of $46 million to $51 million, or a range of $0.35 to $0.39 per diluted share, on quarterly revenue of $777 million to $827 million. We have increased our fourth quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $149 million to $154 million. If this guidance is achieved, the fourth quarter for 2026 would set another record-breaking quarter for GEO, while also positioning our company for a strong 2027 outlook.

For the full year 2026, we've increased GAAP net income guidance to a range of $726.3 million to $730.5 million, which includes the gain on sale of the Adelanto, California ICE complex in the fourth quarter of 2026. We have also increased full year 2026 adjusted net income guidance to a range of $185 million to $190 million, or a range of $1.40 to $1.44 per diluted share, on annual revenues of $2.975 billion to $3.025 billion, and based on an effective tax rate of approximately 28% inclusive of known discrete items. This represents a 56% increase over 2025 adjusted net income at the midpoint of $187.5 million. We have increased our full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $568 million to $573 million, representing a 23% increase at the midpoint of $570.5 million. We expect total unreimbursed capital expenditures for the full year 2026 to be between $140 million and $150 million, and expect normal unreimbursed CapEx to decline to approximately $100 million in 2027.

Moving to our balance sheet, following the sale of the Adelanto Complex in October, we completed the redemption of our $650 million senior secured notes and executed an amendment to our $550 million revolving credit facility, extending its maturity and increasing our restricted payments capacity, including share repurchases. Our total outstanding corporate debt consists of our 2031 senior unsecured notes totaling $625 million. Our available liquidity is approximately $600 million, including cash on hand and revolver availability. Net of cash, our current leverage is approximately 1x adjusted EBITDA. And based on our current outlook, we have reset our capital strategy to remain at or below this net leverage level going forward.

Based on our current leverage, and so long as we remain below specified leverage levels, GEO is permitted to make unlimited restricted payments, including share repurchases, under both the amended credit facility agreement and the senior unsecured note indenture. Given what I believe is a significant discount on our stock valuation, our board of directors, as previously reported, increased our share repurchase authorization, which is effective through December 31, 2029, by $750 million to $1.25 billion. We plan to remain active under this program regardless of future asset sales. At this time, I will turn the call back to George.

George Zoley

Thank you, Shayn. To recap, our third quarter of 2026 was a historic quarter for our company, setting new all-time highs for GEO for quarterly revenues and adjusted EBITDA. And based on our increased guidance, we expect the fourth quarter of 2026 to be another record-setting quarter. This historic financial performance in 2026 will position GEO for a very strong outlook in 2027, with several sources of potential further upside heading into next year, including: the expected activation of 4 new ICE facilities at Bighorn, Rivers, and the Big Spring Complex; additional growth in our secure services segment from the reactivation of additional idle facilities and overall higher populations across our active facilities; the expected transition of our previously announced managed-only contracts for the 1,884-bed Graceville facility and the 985-bed Bay facility in the state of Florida, which are expected to transition on July 1, 2027; additional volume increases and/or accelerated technology and service mix in our ISAP contract; additional growth in our secure transportation services business; and additional revenue from higher utilization of our skip tracing contracts.

In addition to our strong financial performance and significant expected future growth, we believe that additional asset sales could be completed before the end of 2026. Having already completed the sale of the Adelanto Complex for $950 million, we believe it's possible that up to 4 additional facilities owned by GEO could be sold in the fourth quarter of 2026. These potential asset sales represent another significant liquidity and shareholder value creation event for our company.

Given the intrinsic value of our assets, including 48,000 owned beds, our strong financial performance in providing diversified secure support services, and our expected future growth, we believe that our stock continues to be significantly undervalued and share repurchases are therefore a paramount capital allocation priority for our company. That completes our remarks and we would be glad to take any questions. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Joe Gomes with Noble Capital. Please go ahead.

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Joseph Gomes

Good afternoon.

George Zoley

Good afternoon.

Joseph Gomes

So I wanted to start out, George, looking at 93% occupancy at the end of the quarter, how much additional utilization upside remains in your view?

George Zoley

At existing facilities, mathematically, it would be 7%. But we are now transitioning 4 new facilities, as I discussed, 2 of which will open by January 1, representing about 2,500 beds, and 2 more facilities by March 1, representing about 2,300 beds. Those are major increases in our capacity.

Joseph Gomes

Okay, thanks for that. Maybe you could talk a little bit more about the ISAP contract. Obviously, it hasn't gone as the government had said, looking at numbers significantly higher than where we are today. I think there's about 1 year left on that contract. Obviously, you guys have won that contract on multiple occasions, but I just want to get your view and your thoughts on ISAP, and is ICE going to eventually start to use that contract, and your expectations when it comes up for renewal?

George Zoley

Okay. Well, remember the ISAP contract is under a program called Alternatives to Detention. The focus has obviously been under this administration to increase detention capacity, and we've participated in that initiative, increasing our contracted bed space at this point to 33,000 beds, which is almost the entirety of the number of beds that was under the Biden administration. So it's been very significant.

The ISAP contract didn't develop as we expected 2 years ago, but we're very pleased that the technology mix has shifted towards these more intensive electronic devices, including increasing case management. So we do think that contract will continue to grow and expand as the detention capacity is achieved by this administration in this country. So once that is achieved, we think ISAP will continue to grow as it has, particularly with regard to the technology mix.

Joseph Gomes

Yes, great. Thanks for that. I'll pass it on.

Operator

The next question comes from Greg Gibas with Northland Securities. Please go ahead.

Gregory Gibas

Good afternoon, George and Shayn. Wondering how you're thinking about ICE's timeframe for additional facility sales if they were to occur, and maybe if you could discuss kind of how you expect to split incremental proceeds for debt paydown versus repurchases, and would you consider an ASR like we've seen from your public peer?

George Zoley

Well, I'll take the first part of that question. We do think there is a reasonable chance of multiple sales occurring before the end of this year involving our company. And it is a complicated process because the facilities are located in different states, different designs, different cost of replacement construction for each facility, and we've required that the facility's contracts continue for a significant period of time, which further complicates and lengthens the process. But we are reasonably optimistic, as I say, that 1 or multiple facilities could be purchased by ICE from our company before the end of this quarter. With regard to the use of proceeds, I'll defer to Shayn March.

Shayn March

Regarding proceed application, we really don't have that much debt left. So it's the $625 million of unsecured notes, so any significant asset sale we would definitely use to reduce our indebtedness, and we would absolutely consider any type of return of capital back to shareholders, including accelerated type structure transactions. So we're evaluating all the different options and we'll act accordingly once those sales were to occur.

Gregory Gibas

Got it. That's very helpful. And to follow up on the previous question as it relates to ISAP, and I know ICE is very detention-focused, but wondering if you could touch on how populations have trended with respect to the ISAP contract.

George Zoley

Well, the population has slightly trended up. It's gone from, I think, 185,000 to approximately 190,000. But importantly, within that mix are the changes, as I've been discussing, in the electronic devices that are used. They've gone to the more costly and more secure ankle monitors rather than phones. And the other part is the case management, which involves our staff being involved on an interactive basis with people in the program to make sure we know who they are, where they are, and that they're going to be attending their meetings on site with our company, as well as the court hearings that will adjudicate their cases.

Gregory Gibas

Got it. Thanks very much. I'll pass it on.

Operator

The next question comes from Brendan McCarthy with Sidoti. Please go ahead.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Great. Good afternoon. I just wanted to start off on the new Adelanto management contract. I think you mentioned there was a contract modification there that added roughly $60 million in annual revenue. I believe it was due to staffing level increases. Is that baked into the guidance at this point for this year?

Shayn March

Yes, sir. Yep. That is baked in for the rest of this year.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And can you remind us of the contract economics there and maybe talk about the margin profile of that management contract and compare it to the margin profile of how it looked under ownership?

George Zoley

Well, it was an owned facility. It's now a leased facility. Normally, you would expect that there would be a price reduction on the ownership cost issues that are still to be negotiated. They haven't occurred yet. Concurrently, we've had, as the process of renegotiation of that facility, an expanded scope of services that was desired by ICE to add several more staff for several more purposes. And that will offset any decrease in the ownership funding of the facility.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Understood. I appreciate the detail. Last question. It looks like there's a large implied step-up for capital expenditures for Q4 of this year. Is it safe to assume that's mostly reactivation spending that will be reimbursed by ICE?

Shayn March

Yes, that's correct. It's that plus, obviously, we've pushed some CapEx scheduled for earlier in the year to the fourth quarter. So it's a combination of both, but predominantly going to be tied to activations of the ICE facilities.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Understood. That's all from me, and congrats on a good quarter.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to George Zoley, Chairman, CEO, and Founder of The GEO Group, for any closing remarks.

George Zoley

Okay, thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to our next call.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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