킴벨 로열티 파트너스(KRP) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 사상 최대 생산량 및 4분기 전망

핵심 요약

• 2026년 3분기 일평균 생산량은 인수 자산의 41일 기여분을 포함해 전 분기 대비 7% 증가한 일평균 2만 7,565 BOE로 사상 최고치를 기록했다.
• 원유, 천연가스 및 NGL 매출은 총 9,690만 달러에 달했으며, 연결 조정 EBITDA는 8,040만 달러를 기록했다.
• 킴벨은 분배 가능 현금의 75%에 해당하는 보통주당 0.45달러의 분기 배당금을 선언했다. 경영진은 이 중 약 76%가 자본반환으로 처리될 것으로 추정했다.
• 킴벨 보유 광구 전반의 시추 활동은 분기 말 기준 미국 전체 육상 시추기의 약 16%에 달하는 93개의 가동 시추기와 사상 최대 수준의 가시권 유정(line-of-sight wells) 수를 기록하며 견조세를 유지했다.
• 회사는 2026년 6월 이후 3억 6,700만 달러 규모의 인수를 완료했다. 경영진은 각 거래가 생산량을 늘리고 보통주당 분배 가능 현금을 증가시킬 것으로 예상된다고 밝혔다.
• 킴벨은 2026년 4분기 재무 및 운영 가이던스를 재확인했다. 경영진은 유가 상승과 4분기 예상 원유 생산량 중 약 84%가 미헤지 상태로 남아 있는 점에 힘입어 4분기 현금흐름이 크게 증가할 것으로 전망했다.

주요 재무 데이터

킴벨은 분배 가능 현금의 나머지 25%를 회전신용 차입금 상환에 사용할 계획이다. 경영진은 0.45달러의 배당금이 연환산 기준 약 11%의 절세 혜택 배당수익률에 해당한다고 설명했다.

사업 및 운영 실적

해당 분기 동안 킴벨의 사업 영역은 지속적으로 확장되었다. 가동 시추기 수는 2기 증가한 93기를 기록했으며, 회사는 사상 최고 수준의 가시권 유정을 확보했다. 경영진은 이러한 유정 재고가 생산 유지에 필요한 유정 수를 초과해, 연말 및 2027년까지의 생산 안정성에 대한 자신감을 뒷받침한다고 밝혔다.

퍼미안 분지는 매출, 생산량, 시추기 수, 미완공 유정(DUC), 허가 건수 기준 킴벨의 최대 분지로 유지되고 있다. 경영진은 현재의 원유 선물 가격 곡선 하에서 원유 비중이 높은 분지, 특히 퍼미안 분지의 활동이 견조하게 유지될 것으로 예상했다.

광구 임대 보너스 활동 역시 주로 퍼미안 분지에 집중되었다. 경영진은 분기별 임대 보너스 수익의 변동성이 클 수 있지만, 고유가 환경이 일반적으로 임대 활동 증가를 뒷받침한다고 언급했다.

분기 말 이후 킴벨은 담보부 회전신용공여한도의 차입 기준액과 약정 금액을 6억 6,000만 달러에서 7억 5,000만 달러로 증액했다. 또한 잔여 시리즈 A 누적 전환우선주의 50%를 상환하겠다고 통지했으며, 상환 절차는 2026년 11월 16일에 완료될 예정이다.

경영진 가이던스

킴벨은 2026년 8월 24일에 발표했던 2026년 4분기 재무 및 운영 가이던스 범위를 재확인했다.

경영진은 유가 상승과 4분기 예상 원유 생산량의 약 84%가 미헤지 상태라는 점을 들어 4분기 현금흐름이 전 분기 대비 크게 증가할 것으로 전망했다. 아울러 퍼미안 분지를 중심으로 한 활발한 시추와 사상 최대 수준의 가시권 유정 재고가 2027년까지 지속적인 개발을 뒷받침할 것으로 예상했다.

경영진은 이번 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜에서 공식적인 2027년 가이던스를 제시하지 않았다. 다만 기존 광구에서의 지속적인 활동과 퍼미안 분지 내 추가 벤치(bench) 개발이 2027년 또는 2028년에 대한 보다 긍정적인 전망을 뒷받침할 수 있다고 언급했다.

리스크 및 주시 요인

• 4분기 예상 원유 생산량의 약 84%가 미헤지 상태인 만큼, 현금흐름이 유가 변동에 상당 수준 노출되어 있다.
• 경영진은 임대 보너스 수익이 주기적으로 발생하며, 미미한 수준에서 예상치를 크게 웃도는 수준까지 변동 폭이 클 수 있다고 설명했다.
• 회사에 따르면 허가된 유정이 가동되기까지 통상 6~18개월이 소요되므로, 개발 시점에 불확실성이 존재한다.
• 킴벨은 거래가 즉각적인 현금흐름 증대로 이어져야 한다는 조건을 유지하면서 인수를 지속적으로 추진하고 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 투기적인 장기 개발 잠재력에 대해 선제적으로 비용을 지불하기보다는 기존의 인수 원칙을 유지할 방침임을 재차 강조했다. 진행 중이거나 기존의 개발 활동이 인수 타당성 평가를 뒷받침하는 경우 더 깊은 지층(벤치)에 더 높은 가치를 부여할 수 있지만, 즉각적인 현금흐름 증대가 여전히 최우선 과제라고 설명했다.

회사는 기존 롱포인트 인수와 연계된 러빙 카운티의 신규 허가 유정 10개를 강조했다. 이들 유정은 최초 인수 타당성 평가에는 포함되지 않았으며, 킴벨은 이에 대해 약 20%의 순매출 지분을 보유하고 있다. 경영진은 허가 후 생산까지 통상 6~18개월이 걸려온 점을 감안할 때, 잠재적인 최초 생산 시점을 현재 2027년 4분기로 예상하고 있다.

경영진은 미완공 유정(DUC) 및 허가 부지의 전 분기 대비 증가분이 최근 인수와 기존 자산에서의 자체 시추 활동에 대략 절반씩 기인한 것으로 추정했다. 특히 러빙 카운티의 허가 10건이 이번 증가의 주요 요인으로 꼽혔다.

임대 보너스의 경우, 경영진은 활동 증가 가능성을 염두에 두고 실적 모델링 시 과거 4개 분기 평균치를 활용할 것을 제안했다. 운영사들이 과거보다 더 가치 있게 평가할 수 있는 지층을 포함해, 관심은 여전히 퍼미안 분지에 집중되어 있다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Kimbell Royalty Partners Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

Note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Zach Vaughan. Please go ahead.

Zach Vaughan

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Kimbell Royalty Partners conference call to review financial and operational results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. This call is also being webcast and can be accessed through the audio link on the Events and Presentations page of the IR section of kimbellrp.com. Information recorded on this call speaks only as of today, November 5, 2026. So please be advised that any time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate as of the date of any replay listening or transcript reading. I would also like to remind you that statements made in today's discussion that are not historical facts, including statements of expectations or future results or future financial performance, are considered forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We will be making forward-looking statements as part of today's call, which, by their nature, are uncertain and outside of the company's control.

Actual results may differ materially. Please refer to today's earnings release for our disclosure on forward-looking statements. These factors and other risks and uncertainties are described in detail in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Management will also refer to non-GAAP measures, including adjusted EBITDA and cash available for distribution. Reconciliations to the nearest GAAP measures can be found at the end of today's earnings release. Kimbell assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob Ravnaas, Kimbell Royalty Partners Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Bob?

Davis Ravnaas

Thank you, Zach, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us this morning. With me today are several members of our senior management team, including Davis Ravnaas, our President and Chief Financial Officer; Matt Daly, our Chief Operating Officer; and Blaine Rheinsberger, our Controller. To start off, we are pleased to report another outstanding quarter for Kimbell, which included record daily production, an increase in our rig count by two rigs to 93 rigs actively drilling across our acreage, and record line-of-sight wells. It has also been a busy year with M&A, and we have now closed $367 million in acquisitions since June 2026. Each of these deals is expected to add meaningful production, be accretive to cash available for distribution per unit, and drive cash flow growth for years to come.

Production during the quarter grew by 7% quarter-over-quarter, resulting in oil, natural gas, and NGL revenues of approximately $97 million, while cash G&A per BOE remained well within our third quarter guidance range, highlighting the operating leverage of our platform as we continue to grow. Activity on our acreage remains robust, with our rig count representing approximately 16% of all U.S. land rigs at quarter end. In addition, a record number of line-of-sight wells gives us confidence in the resilience of our production as we close out the year and enter 2027. This strong third quarter performance allowed us to declare a Q3 2026 distribution of $0.45 per common unit as we continue to focus on returning value to unitholders. This distribution reflects an annualized tax-advantaged yield of approximately 11%.

Looking ahead, with these recently acquired assets now in our portfolio, we are excited about the earnings power of our extended asset base. With a recent surge in oil prices, not only for the rest of the year, but also for calendar year 2027, as reflected in the futures curve, we expect activity across the Lower 48 to remain strong. We expect to particularly see strong activity across our oil-weighted basins such as the Permian, which is our largest basin by revenue, production, rig count, DUCs, and permits. We also stand to significantly benefit from higher oil prices so far in the fourth quarter, and we expect a material increase in cash flow in the fourth quarter, given that approximately 84% of our estimated fourth quarter oil production is unhedged.

We believe the current futures curve and geopolitical landscape are conducive to incremental activity over time, and we look forward to both the prospects ahead of us and the long-term growth potential of our portfolio. We are bullish about the U.S. oil and natural gas royalty industry and our role as a consolidator in the sector. We continue to believe that the transition from private to public ownership of U.S. oil and natural gas royalties is in the early stages, and we are encouraged by the opportunities in front of us. We intend to continue pursuing accretive acquisitions as we strive to expand our industry-leading portfolio of assets. I'd like to thank all of our employees for their hard work and dedication in driving Kimbell forward and for their role in helping to generate long-term unitholder value. And now I'll turn the call over to Davis.

Unknown Speaker

Thanks, Bob, and good morning, everyone. As Bob mentioned, this was another strong quarter for Kimbell. We set new records for daily production and line-of-sight wells, and activity on our acreage continued to grow. I'll start by reviewing our financial results for the quarter. Oil, natural gas, and NGL revenues totaled $96.9 million during the quarter, which included 41 days of contribution from the acquired production. Third quarter average daily production was 27,565 BOE per day, a new record for Kimbell. On the expense side, third quarter general and administrative expenses were $10.7 million, $6.3 million of which was cash G&A expense, or $2.48 per BOE, near the midpoint of our guidance range and a reflection of our continued operational discipline.

Total third quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $80.4 million. You will find a reconciliation of both consolidated adjusted EBITDA and cash available for distribution at the end of our news release. This morning, we announced a cash distribution of $0.45 per common unit for the third quarter. This represents a cash distribution payment to common unitholders that equates to 75% of cash available for distribution, and the remaining 25% will be used to pay down a portion of the outstanding borrowings under Kimbell's secured revolving credit facility. We estimate that approximately 76% of this distribution will be considered return of capital and not subject to dividend taxes, further enhancing the after-tax return to our common unitholders.

Moving now to our balance sheet and liquidity, at September 30, 2026, we had approximately $535.8 million in debt outstanding under our secured revolving credit facility, which represented a net debt to trailing 12 months consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately 1.5x. We also had approximately $124.2 million in undrawn capacity under that facility at quarter end. Subsequent to quarter end, on October 15, we increased the borrowing base and elected commitments on Kimbell's secured revolving credit facility from $660 million to $750 million in connection with our fall redetermination. This increase reflects the growth of our asset base and provides additional financial flexibility and liquidity as we continue to pursue accretive acquisitions.

In addition, on October 16, Kimbell gave notice to redeem 50% of the remaining Series A cumulative convertible preferred units. After closing, which is expected to occur on November 16, the face value of the remaining outstanding preferred units will be less than 3% of Kimbell's $2.8 billion enterprise value. This further simplifies our capital structure and lowers our cost of capital. We continue to maintain a conservative balance sheet and remain very comfortable with our strong financial position, ample liquidity, and the ongoing support of our bank partners. Today, we are also reaffirming our financial and operational guidance ranges for the fourth quarter of 2026.

As a reminder, our outlook for the fourth quarter was included in the guidance release that was issued on August 24, 2026. We are confident about the prospects for continued development through year-end and into 2027, given the number of rigs actively drilling on our acreage, especially in the Permian, higher oil prices, and our record number of line-of-sight wells exceeding our maintenance well count. In closing, we believe Kimbell is very well positioned for the long term. The U.S. oil and natural gas royalty sector is highly fragmented and estimated at over $850 billion in size, giving us a significant runway for continued consolidation. We believe that our capital-light model and diversified portfolio across the leading U.S. basins allows us to generate durable cash flow and deliver attractive returns to unitholders for years to come. With that, operator, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And our first question will come from Tim Rezvan with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

질의응답

Timothy Rezvan

Good morning, folks. Thank you for taking our questions.

Unknown Speaker

Good morning, Tim.

Timothy Rezvan

I want to start – we noticed one of your large peers who operates in the Permian has been acquiring royalties with more of a longer-term focus as the deeper Permian zones get delineated. Some of these transactions are really not accretive on day 1, but have sort of longer-term value. Is that something that Kimbell would sort of entertain as you think about M&A, or are you going to stick with your kind of day-one accretion blueprint?

Unknown Speaker

I think we want to stick to our existing methodology. Obviously the other ventures that are being developed are not lost on us. We have significant exposure to Woodford, Barnett, all of those different zones across all of the acquisitions that we've made. At the time that we made those acquisitions, for the most part, we gave very little, if any, credit to those zones just because they hadn't been developed at the time. It's just part of our conservative underwriting process. We will, however, give credit to them in cases where we see that there is ongoing development or existing development of those benches. So I'd say that it's important to us that every time we make an acquisition that it's immediately accretive to cash flow, but we are going to give increasing value to benches that are being developed at this time.

And I would add that that's been a huge boon to us as we look back at our acquisitions that we've made in the Permian. Again, we gave very little credit to those areas, and we expect to get tremendous benefits from those as they are developed in the future. We do believe in them, and we think it's a very viable play. So...

Timothy Rezvan

Okay, I appreciate the context there. Following up, you mentioned it in your prepared comments, the line-of-sight wells now trending well above your maintenance level. I know you're not going to give a 2027 guide out there, but is there a reason to think that you could have some kind of modest inflection from where you are today, given that stronger visibility on production to come?

Unknown Speaker

Yes, yes. I mean, that was something that was very positive that we noticed across our asset base this quarter. We had 10 new permits come in in Loving County for wells that were not included in our underwriting, that were allocated to the LongPoint acquisition we made years ago. And that kind of feeds in a little bit, Tim, to my previous comment, which is we're starting to see other benches, different spacing being applied to these areas. So we had 10 permits where we have almost a 20% NRI. Of those permits, we have those coming online in the fourth quarter of 2027. It might happen sooner, it might happen later. Our experience with permits is it's usually 6 to 18 months, so midpoint 12 months. If you run the math on that, you can run your own math, but the cash flow associated with 10 20% NRI wells is tremendous. Again, that's something that we didn't pay for at the time of underwriting, so a nice tailwind that we have on that front. If we continue to see activity like that on the acreage that you were talking about in your first question, that would probably indicate some sort of more bullish guidance for 2027 or 2028 going forward.

It's been a really nice development to see.

Timothy Rezvan

All right, that's great. Thank you.

Unknown Speaker

Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And we will go next to Nick Armato with Texas Capital.

Unknown Speaker

Good morning, team. For my first one, lease bonuses were strong again this quarter. Can you help frame your outlook for them moving forward and discuss where you're currently seeing the most leasing activity across the portfolio? Are there any emerging areas where leasing activity suggests operator interest is increasing before it becomes visible on the drill bit?

Unknown Speaker

Yes, great question. You know, in these higher oil price environments, you tend to see greater lease bonuses. For modeling purposes, just to be conservative, I would take a trailing 4-quarter average and apply that going forward, but with maybe a bias towards more activity. It comes in waves. Some quarters we have de minimis lease bonus, some quarters it exceeds our expectations dramatically. I would say that it's mostly focused on the Permian. We're seeing some increased lease bonus activity in other areas as well, but the Permian continues to be the main driver. And again, it's folks that are looking to different benches in the Permian that they now believe have greater value than perhaps they did in the past and therefore justify increased interest in leasing activity. So I think that when you're dealing with a portfolio of assets like ours that are so diverse in nature with broad growth footprints, I would expect that we would continue to see significant leasing activity across those areas.

Unknown Speaker

Perfect. And then maybe just for my follow-up, you saw a meaningful sequential increase in the net DUC count and permit locations, which you've highlighted. Can you maybe just help characterize that increase and how much was attributed to some of the recent acquisitions versus organic increase in activity across the legacy acreage?

Unknown Speaker

It's a combination of both, obviously. I wouldn't have a split in front of me between the acquisition inventory that we've acquired versus organic. I would say the biggest driver of that are the 10 wells, the 10 permits that I mentioned just back on the last call. That was a meaningful boost, and that was on our legacy position, obviously, an acquisition that we made 3 or 4 years ago. So I would say it's evenly split between the two. If I had to handicap it, I'd say that most of that increase in inventory is probably attributable to... I'd say it's about 50/50 between acquisitions and legacy properties.

Unknown Speaker

Perfect. I appreciate it. I'll turn it back to the operator. Thank you.

Unknown Speaker

Thank you.

Operator

And this now concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

Davis Ravnaas

Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. This completes today's call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

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