아스펜 에어로젤스(ASPN) 2026년 3분기 실적 컨퍼런스콜: 매출 및 EBITDA, 회사 가이던스 상회
아스펜 에어로젤은 2026년 3분기 매출 8,520만 달러, 조정 EBITDA 1,980만 달러를 기록해 양 지표 모두 가이던스 범위를 상회했다고 발표했다. 에너지 산업과 열 차단 부문의 물량 증가 및 비용 흡수 개선이 주요 요인으로 작용했으며, 유럽 전기차 프로그램도 지속적으로 확대될 것으로 예상된다. 경영진은 4분기 매출을 6,000만~7,500만 달러, 조정 EBITDA를 500만~1,300만 달러로 전망하고 있으며, 2027년 유럽 열 차단 부문 매출은 5,000만~6,000만 달러에 이를 것으로 내다보고 있다.
아스펜 에어로젤(Aspen Aerogels Inc., ASPN)은 2026년 3분기 매출 8,520만 달러, 조정 EBITDA 1,980만 달러를 기록해 두 지표 모두 가이던스 범위를 상회했다고 발표했다. 에너지 산업(Energy Industrial)과 열 차단(Thermal Barrier) 부문 전반의 물량 증가로 비용 흡수가 개선됐으며, 유럽 전기차(EV) 프로그램도 지속적으로 확대됐다.
핵심 요약
- 3분기 매출은 전 분기 대비 71%, 전년 동기 대비 17% 증가한 8,520만 달러를 기록해 경영진 가이던스(6,500만~8,000만 달러)를 웃돌았다.
- 조정 EBITDA는 1,980만 달러에 달해 전망치인 700만~1,500만 달러를 상회했다. 경영진은 제품 믹스, 물량 증가 및 고정비 흡수를 주요 요인으로 꼽았다.
- 에너지 산업 부문 매출은 계획된 해저(subsea) 프로젝트 납품과 견조한 LNG 수요에 힘입어 전 분기 대비 96%, 전년 동기 대비 64% 증가한 3,990만 달러를 기록했다.
- 열 차단 부문 매출은 전 분기 대비 54% 증가한 4,530만 달러를 나타냈다. GM 매출은 3,730만 달러로 증가했으며, 유럽 고객사 매출은 분기 사상 최대인 800만 달러에 달했다.
- 경영진은 4분기 매출을 6,000만~7,500만 달러, 조정 EBITDA를 500만~1,300만 달러로 예상하고 있다.
- 아스펜은 2026년 유럽 열 차단 부문 매출이 약 3,000만 달러에 이를 것으로 예상하며, 7개 OEM 및 8개 프로그램을 통해 2027년에는 5,000만~6,000만 달러를 목표로 하고 있다.
주요 재무 데이터
| 지표 | 2026년 3분기 | 변동 / 해설 |
|---|---|---|
| 매출 | 8,520만 달러 | 전 분기 대비 71% 증가, 전년 동기 대비 17% 증가 |
| 에너지 산업 부문 매출 | 3,990만 달러 | 전 분기 대비 96% 증가, 전년 동기 대비 64% 증가 |
| 열 차단 부문 매출 | 4,530만 달러 | 전 분기 대비 54% 증가(기존 이연된 GM 합의 매출 490만 달러 포함) |
| GM 매출 | 3,730만 달러 | 2분기 2,370만 달러에서 증가 |
| 유럽 열 차단 부문 매출 | 800만 달러 | 전 분기 580만 달러 대비 38% 증가 |
| GAAP 기준 매출총이익 | 2,060만 달러 | 매출총이익률 24%(2분기 7% 대비) |
| 조정 매출총이익 | 3,530만 달러 | 사고 관련 비용 제외 시 조정 매출총이익률 41% |
| GAAP 기준 영업비용 | 2,770만 달러 | 제2공장 자산 처분 손실 460만 달러 및 사고 관련 비용 약 40만 달러 포함 |
| GAAP 기준 순손실 | 1,040만 달러 | 2분기 2,330만 달러에서 축소 |
| 조정 EBITDA | 1,980만 달러 | 가이던스(700만~1,500만 달러) 상회 |
| 현금, 현금성 자산 및 사용제한 현금 | 1억 4,650만 달러 | 2분기 대비 690만 달러 감소 |
| 자본적 지출(CapEx) | 470만 달러 | 매출 규모가 비슷했던 2023년 4분기의 2,800만 달러와 대비 |
| 기간 대출 잔액 | 7,300만 달러 | 예정된 분할 상환액 650만 달러 반영 후 |
아스펜은 전 분기 대비 3,500만 달러의 매출 증가에 힘입어 약 2,600만 달러의 조정 EBITDA 증분을 창출했다. 경영진은 약 75%의 증분 전환율이 제품 믹스와 비용 흡수로 인해 이례적으로 높았다고 설명하며, 사업 계획 수립 시 전제치는 50~60%로 유지했다.
사업 및 운영 실적
에너지 산업
에너지 산업 부문은 3분기 계획된 2건의 해저 프로젝트 완료에 따른 수혜를 입었다. 경영진은 연간 해저 부문 매출이 통상 1,000만~2,000만 달러 범위이며, 2026년에도 이 범위 내에 들 것으로 예상한다고 밝혔다.
LNG 납품은 4분기까지 견조세를 유지했으며, 아스펜은 2026년과 2027년에 납품 예정인 프로젝트로 사업 범위를 넓히고 있다. 회사는 2026년 에너지 산업 부문에서 약 20% 성장을 지속 목표로 삼고 있으며, LNG 사업 활성화와 이미 확보된 해저 프로젝트의 모멘텀을 안고 2027년에 진입한다고 밝혔다.
또한 아스펜은 2026년 4분기 납품 및 설치 예정인 데이터센터 인프라 수주를 처음으로 확보했다. 초기 적용 분야는 열 관리와 자원 효율성에 초점을 맞추고 있다. 경영진은 이번 설치를 사례 연구로 활용할 계획이며, 이 시장이 추가적인 자본 투자 없이 에너지 산업 부문을 확장하는 데 기여할 수 있을 것으로 보고 있다.
열 차단
열 차단 부문 매출은 2분기 전 분기 대비 81% 증가에 이어 3분기에도 54% 증가하며 2개 분기 연속 성장세를 이어갔다. GM의 생산량은 현재 차량 판매율에 근접했으며 재고는 완만하게 재축적됐다.
3분기 유럽 열 차단 부문 매출은 사상 최대인 800만 달러를 기록했다. 아스펜은 8개 프로그램을 통해 7개 OEM에 제품을 공급했으며, 2026년 첫 9개월 동안 유럽 고객사로부터 1,890만 달러의 매출을 올렸다. 대다수 프로그램은 아직 양산 단계에 들어가지 않았으나, 경영진은 대부분 2027년에 생산을 시작할 예정이라고 전했다.
회사는 현재 유럽 내 제조 설비 구축 계획을 갖고 있지 않다. 멕시코 시설을 계속 활용할 방침이나, 경영진은 공급망 단축을 위해 유럽 고객사와 더 가까운 곳에 물류창고를 확보하는 방안을 논의 중이다.
배터리 에너지 저장 장치
아스펜은 첨단 설계 및 평가 작업을 통해 복수의 배터리 에너지 저장 시장 참여업체로부터 초기 매출을 창출했다. 경영진은 조만간 적격성 평가 절차가 진행될 것으로 예상하며, 이러한 기회들이 2027년부터 지속적인 매출 기여를 시작할 수 있을 것이라고 밝혔다.
이스트 프로비던스 공장 복구
아스펜은 지난 4월 발생한 사고의 영향을 받은 오븐을 복구하는 동안 이스트 프로비던스에서 에어로젤 블랭킷을 제조하고 있다. 경영진은 단계적 재가동이 2027년 상반기에 완료될 것으로 전망하고 있다.
3분기에는 긴급 운송비, 전문가 수수료, 일시적 외주 가공비 증가 등 사고 관련 비용 1,510만 달러가 포함됐다. 회사는 보험사에 보험금을 청구하고 있으며, 복구가 완료될 때까지 이러한 비용이 지속될 것으로 보고 있다.
경영진 가이던스
| 전망 | 경영진 가이던스 |
|---|---|
| 2026년 4분기 매출 | 6,000만~7,500만 달러 |
| 2026년 4분기 조정 EBITDA | 500만~1,300만 달러 |
| 4분기 에너지 산업 부문 매출 | 약 3,500만 달러 |
| 4분기 사고 관련 가산 비용 | 약 500만~1,000만 달러 |
| 2026 회계연도 내재 매출 | 2억 3,300만~2억 4,800만 달러 |
| 2026 회계연도 내재 조정 EBITDA | 550만~1,350만 달러 |
| 2026 회계연도 유럽 열 차단 부문 매출 | 약 3,000만 달러 |
| 2027년 유럽 열 차단 부문 목표 | 약 5,000만~6,000만 달러 |
4분기 매출 가이던스 하단은 연환산 약 7만~9만 대 수준의 GM 생산량을 가정한 수치다. 경영진은 4분기 연환산 약 11만 대로 제시된 IHS 전망치에 비해 보수적인 수준이라고 설명하며 계절적 불확실성을 언급했다.
이스트 프로비던스 복구 지출을 제외한 4분기 설비투자(CapEx) 및 예정된 부채 상환액은 총 약 1,000만 달러로 예상된다. 경영진은 아스펜이 연말까지 최소한 순현금 상태를 유지할 것으로 전망했다.
위험 요인 및 주요 관전 포인트
- 이스트 프로비던스 사고 비용은 GAAP 기준 매출총이익률과 현금흐름에 지속적인 부담을 주고 있다. 분기 말 기준 연초 이후 발생한 사고 관련 비용 중 약 2,000만 달러는 아직 보험금으로 보전받지 못했다.
- 생산 거점, 완제품 판매, 안전 재고 요건 및 보험금 수령 시기 등으로 인해 운전자본 변동성이 지속될 수 있다.
- 해저 프로젝트 매출은 본질적으로 불규칙하다. 계획된 2건의 프로젝트가 3분기에 납품됨에 따라 4분기 매출은 3분기 대비 감소할 것으로 예상된다.
- 유럽 열 차단 부문 전망은 고객사의 생산량 확대 속도에 달려 있다. 경영진은 현재 체결된 프로그램별 단가 및 수량 계약상으로는 2027년 6,000만 달러 이상을 시사하지만, 보다 보수적인 5,000만~6,000만 달러 목표를 유지했다고 밝혔다.
- 제2공장의 건물 및 장비 매각 가능성에 따른 수익금 대부분은 2027년에 유입될 것으로 예상되며, 유입 전액이 기간 대출 원금을 상환하는 데 1대 1로 사용될 예정이다.
애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용
- 유럽 제조: 아스펜은 현재 유럽 내 제조 설비에 투자할 계획이 없다. 생산은 계속해서 멕시코를 중심으로 유지되며, 현지 물류창고 확보를 검토 중이다.
- 데이터센터: 첫 번째 프로젝트는 음향보다는 에너지 효율성과 열 관리에 초점을 맞추고 있다. 납품 및 설치는 2026년 4분기로 예정되어 있다.
- 해저 및 LNG: 경영진은 2027년 해저 부문 매출이 과거 수준인 1,000만~2,000만 달러 범위 내에 머물 것으로 예상한다. LNG 사업 활동은 가속화되고 있으나, 구체적인 2027년 가이던스는 다음 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜로 미뤘다.
- 배터리 에너지 저장 장치: 아스펜은 복수의 참여업체에 첨단 평가용 소재를 공급하고 있다. 다음 단계는 최종 적격성 평가 및 고객사 프로젝트 수주이며, 매출 기여는 2027년부터 시작될 것으로 예상된다.
- 유럽 프로그램의 추가 성장 잠재력: 아스펜은 기존 및 신규 OEM 모두와 추가 프로그램 수주 경쟁을 이어가고 있다. 경영진은 개발 일정이 단축되고 있는 것으로 보이지만, 신규 수주가 일반적으로 당해 연도에 유의미한 매출을 창출하지는 못한다고 덧붙였다.
실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문
전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록
경영진 발표
Operator
Good morning. Thank you for attending the Aspen Aerogels Inc. Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Call. [Operator Instructions] And now I would like to turn the conference over to your host Neal Baranosky, Aspen's VP of Corporate Strategy and Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may proceed, Mr. Baranosky.
Neal Baranosky
Thank you, Kathleen. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for the Aspen Aerogels Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. With us today are Don Young, President and CEO; and Grant Thoele, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.
The press release announcing Aspen's financial results and business developments and the slide deck that will accompany our conversation today are available on the Investors section of Aspen's website, www.aerogel.com.
During this call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross profit, adjusted gross margin and adjusted net income. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures are included in the back of the slide presentation and earnings release. On today's call, management will make forward-looking statements about our expectations.
These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include the factors identified in our filings with the SEC. Please review the disclaimer statements on Page 1 of the slide deck as the content of our call will be governed by this language.
I'd also like to note that from time to time in connection with the vesting of restricted stock units and/or stock options issued under our long-term incentive equity program, we expect that our Section 16 officers will file Form 4 to report the sale and/or withholding of shares in order to cover the payment of taxes and/or the exercise price of options.
I'll now turn the call over to Don. Don?
Donald Young
Thanks, Neal. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Strong third quarter, exceeding the high end of our outlook for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The improvement was broad-based with robust energy industrial deliveries, increased demand from GM and growing contributions from our European EV customers. .
We also achieved early commercial milestones in data center infrastructure and battery energy storage systems. These results demonstrate progress toward our goal of growing and diversifying revenue while building durable profitability. Let me discuss the drivers of our performance, the opportunities ahead and our progress at the East Providence manufacturing facility. Our third quarter outlook called for a revenue range of $65 million to $80 million and an adjusted EBITDA range of $7 million to $15 million.
We delivered approximately $85 million in revenue and $20 million in adjusted EBITDA. This performance reflects the strength of customer demand across several parts of our business and a return to higher gross margins.
Starting with Energy Industrial -- we continue to target approximately -- we continue to target approximately 20% growth in 2026 despite the disruption at the East Providence facility. Strong project demand is driving our second half Energy Industrial performance. In Q3, we delivered our planned subsea projects, reflecting strong execution by the team.
LNG deliveries were also strong in Q3 and are continuing at a robust pace in Q4. We are expanding our scope on several current projects scheduled for 2026 and 2027 deliveries. We see a substantial multiyear opportunity in LNG particularly in the United States, the Middle East, Asia and Africa.
Looking ahead to 2027, we believe our Energy Industrial business is well positioned for another solid growth year. We have momentum from a strong second half of 2026, a 2027 subsea project in hand and market dynamics driven by a multiyear investment cycle in energy infrastructure to support the global need for energy security, supply diversification and reliable power.
On the topic of new and adjacent markets, growing investment in energy storage and data center infrastructure is creating new opportunities for Aspen. In BSS, we generated initial revenue during the third quarter from parts supply to multiple leading market participants for advanced design and evaluation work. As safety requirements evolve, manufacturers and developers are seeking higher performance, cost-effective Made in America thermal protection solutions and our proven PyroThin technology positions us well to address these needs.
We are pleased to capture first revenue and believe this opportunity will expand to contribute to our 2027 growth and profitability. In a new adjacent market, we are pleased to have captured our first data center infrastructure order for delivery in Q4 2026. A large data center campus is utilizing our products as part of its technical approach to manage the extreme resource demands associated with these mega sites and to reduce the impact on the surrounding community.
We believe resource efficiency will be a key factor in data center growth. This opportunity is a natural extension of our thermal management expertise drawing on our aerogel technology, manufacturing capabilities and technical experience.
We believe we are well positioned to support the growing power generation and resource efficiency needs of AI data centers. We will share more detail on future calls after completing our initial installations and further defining the opportunity. We believe this market could contribute significantly to scaling Energy Industrial into a durable high-margin business without the need for incremental capital investment.
Turning to our PyroThin thermal barrier business. Revenue grew 81% sequentially in Q2 and another 54% in Q3. In North America, U.S. EV demand has stabilized at approximately 6% to 7% of new vehicle sales. We see GM production aligning more closely with current sales rates while modestly rebuilding inventory, consistent with its stated demand-driven approach.
In Europe, battery electric vehicles are approaching 30% of new vehicle registrations. During Q3, our European thermal barrier business achieved record revenue, supplying 7 OEMs across 8 programs.
At our last earnings call, we projected 2026 revenue from European OEMs to be between $20 million and $30 million, up from the $10 million to $15 million projected earlier in the year. With momentum continuing in Q4, we are confident that we will be at the high end of that range. This expanding opportunity from a diverse group of European OEMs is an important contributor to our strong Q4 outlook, and we believe we can double our European Thermal Barrier revenue in 2027.
At East Providence, we are progressing toward completing our staged restart, which we expect to accomplish in the first half of 2027. I want to recognize the Aspen team for its tireless efforts to achieve a safe and disciplined restart in the plant and for its unwavering commitment to our customers. These actions strengthen our short- and long-term supply flexibility, operational resilience and ability to serve customers reliably. Grant, over to you.
Grant Thoele
Thanks, Don. And good morning, everyone. I'll cover our Q3 2026 results and Q4 outlook. Before we get into the details, I want to put this quarter into some context. Q3 showed the earnings power of this business at higher volumes, demonstrating that the financial framework we've been building since early 2025 is delivering. The last time we posted similar revenue was Q4 of 2023. Back then, we had a regulatory backdrop geared for mass EV adoption. We are preparing for GM's ramp as our primary OEM and we were building additional Aerogel capacity in Georgia. That quarter, we generated $9.1 million of adjusted EBITDA on $85 million of revenue and spent $28 million on CapEx.
Since then, we've taken more than $75 million out of our fixed cost structure, diversified supply across both of our segments, started delivering revenue to 7 European Thermal Barrier customers, and move to a more sustainable, capital-light and flexible manufacturing model. The results on essentially the same $85 million of revenue, we more than doubled adjusted EBITDA to $19.8 million and spent just $4.7 million on CapEx.
This is a fundamentally different Aspen, more profitable, less capital-intensive and backed by a healthy balance sheet. That positions us to grow share in our core markets, expand into adjacent markets and pursue new opportunities.
Now let's dive into the quarter. Third quarter revenue was $85.2 million, above the high end of our $65 million to $80 million guidance range and up 71% quarter-over-quarter or 17% year-over-year. Revenue included $39.9 million from Energy Industrial and $45.3 million from Thermal Barrier which included a $4.9 million of previously deferred revenue recognized in connection with the GM settlement received in Q1.
Energy Industrial revenue increased 96% quarter-over-quarter in line with our expectation of approximately $40 million as Subsea project revenue landed in the quarter. Compared with the third quarter of last year, Energy Industrial revenue increased 64%. Thermal Barrier revenue increased 54% quarter-over-quarter, driven by 2 factors: First, revenue from GM increased to $37.3 million from $23.7 million in Q2 as production rates align closer to sales.
Second, European Thermal Barrier revenue grew 38% quarter-over-quarter from $5.8 million to $8 million, marking the highest revenue generated from our European customers in a single quarter. Gross profit was $20.6 million or 24% gross margin, up from $3.3 million or 7% gross margin in Q2, as higher volumes absorb more of our fixed manufacturing costs. This includes $14.7 million of incremental costs from our -- from the April incident at East Providence, which are not indicative of normal operations.
While these costs are added back to adjusted EBITDA, they burden gross margin. Excluding these incident-related costs, non-GAAP adjusted gross profit was $35.3 million or 41% gross margin. Operating expenses were $27.7 million in Q3, including a $4.6 million loss on disposal of PPE related to Plant 2. We also incurred approximately $400,000 and incident-related charges within OpEx. Excluding these items, adjusted non-GAAP operating expenses were $22.7 million compared with $23.1 million in Q2.
GAAP net loss narrowed to $10.4 million in Q3 from $23.3 million in Q2. Adjusted EBITDA landed at $19.8 million, above our guidance range of $7 million to $15 million. To put this profitability into perspective, on $35 million additional revenues from Q2 to Q3, we generated $26 million incremental EBITDA. That's roughly 75% of additional revenue falling to the bottom line, which is impressive, but significantly higher than typical levels, primarily due to product mix and cost absorption.
For planning purposes, we continue to expect 50% to 60% of incremental revenue to fall to the bottom line. As a reminder, we add back incident-related charges to adjusted EBITDA in the quarter incurred and submit claims for these costs under our insurance policies. In Q3, these charges totaled $15.1 million. They consisted of expedited freight, professional fees and the incremental cost of temporarily sourcing certain products from our external manufacturing facility.
With higher volumes similar to Q3, these charges scale with increased activity. We are actively engaged in the claims process under our insurance policies and expect to continue incurring incident-related charges until the facility is restored, which we expect to complete in the first half of 2027.
Turning to liquidity. We ended the third quarter with $146.5 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, down $6.9 million from $153.4 million in Q2. Our net cash position remained consistent with prior quarter at just above $60 million.
Let's break down key cash flow items in Q3. During the quarter, we received $15 million of insurance proceeds related to property damage from the EP incident. $8.9 million flow through investing activities once cash was received, which settled the property damage receivable we recorded in Q2. The remaining $6.1 million was recorded within accrued expenses and flow-through operating activities.
Operating activities used $3.8 million of cash. Keep in mind, this is burdened by $15.1 million of incident-related charges that will be submitted under our insurance policies. So we'd see higher cash generation under normalized operations. Investing and financing activities used $3.2 million, driven by $4.7 million of CapEx, $8.9 million of insurance proceeds and $6.5 million of scheduled term loan amortization, leaving our term loan balance at $73 million to end the quarter.
Two final points on liquidity. First, I want to point out that our $146.5 million of cash does not include any potential insurance reimbursement for approximately $20 million of incident-related charges incurred year-to-date. Second, if we exclude incident-related charges, insurance proceeds and debt payments, we would have delivered approximately $10 million of cash on $85 million of revenues. We have more work to do to drive incremental cash flow, but these results are encouraging.
Turning to Slide 7. In its simplest form, Q4 could look similar to Q3 when excluding subsea project activity. As a reminder, we typically generate between $10 million to $20 million subsea revenue annually. We have momentum in both businesses going into the final quarter of the year. We are excited to see new opportunities landing for us with strong European Thermal Barrier activity, increased LNG orders and executing on our first data center infrastructure project. .
I'm excited to see the business becoming more sustainable as our full year assumptions around demand and supply have held up. We've seen GM production recover as inventory levels normalize. Our European Thermal Barrier programs are delivering increasing revenues and the Energy Industrial business has strong underlying drivers with approximately 20% year-over-year growth in our crosshairs.
For the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect total revenue to be between $60 million and $75 million. The low end reflects a conservative view, including GM production assumptions below the current IHS forecast. Continued strength in European Thermal Barrier and Energy Industrial building on Q3 gives us line of sight to the high end of that range. Breaking down our guide, we anticipate Energy Industrial revenues of approximately $35 million for the quarter. Our Q4 guide for the Thermal Barrier business has 2 primary drivers. We've assumed GM production at an annualized rate of approximately 70,000 to 90,000 vehicles in the quarter.
GM sourced approximately 170,000 vehicles annualized in Q3, and the current IHS forecast as GM producing approximately 110,000 vehicles annualized in Q4. We know Q4 has a component of seasonality and thus, our guide is conservatively below IHS. Our European Thermal Barrier customers generated $18.9 million of revenue through the third quarter. This is the ramp we've been waiting for. With one quarter to go, we've already generated the most European Thermal Barrier revenue in any year since we got into the EV business.
For the full year of 2026, we expect the European programs to reach approximately $30 million of revenue. As a reminder, these European programs have not reached serial production, but most of them will SOP in 2027. In fact, customer diversification is one of the most promising factors here. as 7 different OEMs across 8 different programs drive growth in 2027.
We continue to target meaningful growth over our 2026 outlook to approximately $50 million to $60 million of European Thermal Barrier revenues in 2027. Given the product mix included in our revenue range, we expect Q4 adjusted EBITDA to be between $5 million and $13 million, which includes adding back incident-related costs of approximately $5 million to $10 million.
Turning to our liquidity outlook. CapEx and scheduled debt payments should total around $10 million in Q4 when excluding East Providence restoration CapEx. Working capital will remain more variable, driven by where we produce and sell finished goods, safety stock builds tied to East Providence's recovery pace, and the timing of insurance proceeds, which are paid in arrears relative to the costs they cover.
Regardless of that timing, we remain confident we'll at least maintain our net cash position by year-end. When it comes to the sale of Plant 2 assets, we continue to actively market both the building and equipment. We have buyer interest in the building and continue to drive towards liquidity as we evaluate each option. On the equipment, we plan to begin a structured sale process to sell remaining assets over the coming months. The majority of the proceeds from the sale of Plant 2 assets are most likely a 2027 event. And as a reminder, would be applied directly to reduce our term debt on a dollar-for-dollar basis.
With ample levels of liquidity today, we still see flexibility to further delever the business while staying nimble to opportunistically invest in strategic growth initiatives. Pulling this all together, 3 things defined where Aspen stands today, a more profitable and less capital-intensive operating model. Commercial traction in both segments with new market opportunities and best and data center infrastructure projects and a strong balance sheet with net cash just above $60 million.
Our implied fiscal year 2026 outlook ranges from $233 million to $248 million revenue and $5.5 million to $13.5 million adjusted EBITDA. We've demonstrated how powerful our financial framework can be at $85 million in quarterly revenue and $19.8 million adjusted EBITDA and will carry that momentum going forward.
Don, back to you.
Donald Young
Thanks, Grant. Before we move to Q&A, I would like to reiterate our outlook for Q4. We expect revenue between $60 million and $75 million and adjusted EBITDA between $5 million and $13 million. We have the opportunity to be at the high end of those ranges. Our priorities are clear: scale, Energy Industrial, broaden PyroThin customer base, and advance adjacent opportunities where our technology can create value.
We are investing in innovation and in our customer-facing commercial teams to support that work. We believe this strategy is the best path to put our financial strength to work and create long-term shareholder value. Our Q3 performance and Q4 outlook provide significant momentum as we enter 2027 with a focus on growth and durable profitability.
With that, we'll open the call for questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Colin Roche of Oppenheimer.
질의응답
Colin Rusch
Congrats on the results as well. As you look at the European opportunity and the potential for significant upside here, I just want to get a sense of where the manufacturing footprint is headed and the finishing lines? Is it the sort of thing where it might make sense to think about ramping a finishing line in Europe to meet some of that demand?
Donald Young
Well, we do not have a plan to build a fabrication capability in Europe today. We are very pleased with our capabilities in Mexico, and we will focus our efforts there and our expertise there and our costs in that single facility. It is possible that we will create a shorter supply chain by having warehouse capability near our European customers. We're in discussions today around that idea. But today, we do not have a plan to spend capital building, fabrication capability in Europe.
Colin Rusch
Excellent. And then just getting into the data center opportunity. Could you just talk about the diversity of potential customers that you're working with at this point? And how we might start seeing some of that activity flowing into the P&L over the next couple of years?
Donald Young
Yes. We are -- we have, as I said, Collin, captured our first order in this space, and it is focused around the resource efficiency for these facilities. We are going to use this first order, the installation, it's a deliverable here in Q4 and immediate installation. And we're going to use this as a case study to demonstrate value of our product in these areas, and you will see us use that case study as we spread out our commercial team to capture more of these kinds of orders.
The opportunities are significant and broad based. And we believe that resource efficiency will be paramount to existing and new facilities as the data center effort spreads out. Obviously, with community consternation, we believe resource efficiency is a way of addressing that at least in part.
So we're in the early days of this. Having said that, the opportunity is here in Q4. We're delivering and installing. So we're operating at a pretty fast pace. We're very excited about the opportunity. It's a very natural extension of the work that we have done in Energy Industrial for a long time. So it's -- while it's new, it's not entirely new. It's very much a [ first cousin ] of the work that we've done for more than 10 years.
Colin Rusch
Okay. And just one clarifying question. Is it primarily thermal management, are you guys addressing any of the sound issues with some of these systems?
Donald Young
The work that we have captured to date is around energy efficiency and the thermal management aspect of it. We do have attributes that address acoustical opportunities as well, but that's not the focus of this particular order. .
Operator
And your next question comes from the line of Eric Stine.
Eric Stine
So maybe just to clarify first. So it sounds like you did complete the 2 subsea projects in Q3. So I just want to confirm that, but then I would love to get more details, both on the significant project award that you referred to in your comments there first, but then also just talking about the significant project activity that you are seeing in Energy Industrial for 2027.
Donald Young
Well, so 2 parts on that, at least, yes, we did deliver as planned and as expected, our 2 projects in Q3 of this year. And that's why you saw that strong revenue in Q3 and a little bit of a tail off in Q4, although the other parts of our business are growing. It's just we all know that the subsea business tends to be lumpy.
Just to put it all in perspective, we expect and Grant said this in his comments, our history would suggest that we deliver between $10 million and $20 million of subsea revenue in a normal year. If you go back to 2024, we had some number closer to $30 million, and that's not a normal year. In 2025, we had something approximating 0. That is not a normal year. In 2026, we are falling in that normal $10 million to $20 million range. In 2027, with a project in hand, we anticipate, again, being in that $10 million to $20 million range for the year with respect to our subsea work.
The second part of your question on just the activity levels, we are seeing significant opportunity, especially on the LNG side. We are active here and throughout -- really, throughout 2026, and that's going to roll right into 2027 as well. Again, Subsea project in hand, that's great. We're confident we will be in that $10 million to $20 million range. There are plenty of opportunities for us to keep that rolling forward as well. .
Eric Stine
Okay. And then maybe just a quick follow-up. Just would love more details on the storage revenue, I know initial revenue here in 3Q. I mean, is this -- it looks like -- or it sounds like this may be a pretty similar product to what you're delivering hasn't necessarily required a whole lot of tuning this to that application, but would love more details?
Donald Young
Yes, thank you. We've been striving and articulating a goal that we would achieve initial revenue in 2026, and that's exactly what we did here in Q3. And you are correct. These thermal barriers are very much first cousins of the thermal barriers that we supply for mobility and for automotive OEMs. We believe that we will be able to convert these prototype materials, these evaluation materials. I would call them advanced evaluation materials at this point into specific projects and that they will be contributors to our revenue in 2027.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Pfingst.
Ryan Pfingst
Maybe just starting with a follow-up on Energy Industrial growth for '27. You mentioned a similar Subsea revenue outlook. But how should we be thinking about LNG and maintenance growth next year, perhaps relative to the growth we saw here in 2026?
Donald Young
Well, we're not quite prepared to provide an outlook for 2027, but we do. It is great to have to be confident that we will bring our Subsea business into its normal range as, again, as we said, $10 million to $20 million. We are seeing an acceleration in our LNG revenue and efforts. And so we think that's a growth opportunity for us, '26 to '27.
Look, the broadly speaking, the energy infrastructure space is growing, and we're going to participate in that growth. We are striving -- we're kind of head down right now, trying to reach that 20% growth here in 2026 as we've targeted. And we'll get to 2027 at our next earnings call. But we're moving into '27 with a lot of momentum. Let me just say that.
Ryan Pfingst
Got it. And then flipping over to Thermal Barrier. As you're delivering more product to the European OEMs. How are you thinking about potential upside to the current 2027 outlook? And are there potential wins out there that could come soon enough that they'd show up as soon as late next year?
Donald Young
Let me do the second part of that first. We are competing for additional European OEM design awards. History would say that those take -- you don't usually generate revenue in the same year that you win the award. I mean, not meaningful revenue at least, just prototype type revenue. So I wouldn't want you to count on that. But these companies are further along in their development and from a thermal protection point of view.
I think from what we're seeing is from the time of design award to the time of first revenue, that period is shortening. In terms of upside, look, I said in my script that we were going to be at the high end of that $20 million to $30 million for 2026 and that we were in a position to double that revenue in 2027. I think that's a solid way of thinking about it as we go into 2027.
Again, if you just take price times volume of our '27 agreements with these companies, it's a number considerably greater than $60 million. But again, I think our history tells us to be careful and conservative and that's what we're doing. We still think doubling the business year-over-year is impressive. So we're excited about that.
Grant Thoele
One just additional point on that, Ryan, is that I think with the European OEMs, we're obviously actively engaged on current programs, and we're also quoting new programs. And so whether or not it's a new award with a new OEM or a new award with a current OEM, I think, is another way to kind of think about it for '27.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Chip Moore with ROTH Capital Partners. .
Unknown Analyst
I wanted to follow up on the energy storage opportunity. I guess, how should we think about the evaluation process. Is this -- how does that compare to automotive? I would assume it's less work to get spec-ed in, but testing requirements or time frame? Any thoughts there?
Donald Young
Well, the sequence is, again, with multiple leading partners in this space, we are providing materials with again, what I'm referring to as advanced evaluation materials. The next full step is, I would say, full qualification. And then our customer needs to go and win their business based on our product and their modules.
So those are the steps along the way, and we believe that we will get qualifications here in the near term and revenue beginning in 2027. Again, it's a broad opportunity for us. And again, we think achieving initial revenue was an excellent milestone that we had committed to earlier this year. We reached that, and now it's a matter of converting it into ongoing steady profitable revenue for us.
Unknown Analyst
Great. And maybe for my follow-up, just East Providence restart, just give us a little update there. It sounds like it's on track and implications for margins, I guess, really in back half of next year? .
Grant Thoele
Thanks, Chip. I think the way to think about East Providence right now is that we're fully manufacturing our aerogel blankets and we are actively restoring the oven where the incident occurred. And so we're on track for first half of next year to be completed with that restoration. And the team is working kind of day and night to make sure that we're putting in place all of the appropriate safety protocols and getting everything buttoned up as we should.
And the interesting thing about our margins so far this year, and that's why I kind of -- I've been citing the adjusted gross margin is that there's just so many incident-related charges that are, from a GAAP perspective, obviously, burdening gross margin, but we're adding those back to adjusted EBITDA.
So that's going to continue probably through the first 2 to 3 quarters of next year as we -- we're building inventory with EMF as well. And so we're making sure that when we do kind of flip back to -- and have that oven capability at East Providence that we are -- we have the inventory in place to do that, and we can do so in a very efficient way. So everything is going on track, and we're just proud of the team for doing all the work they're doing down there at the plant.
Donald Young
Chip, I think one of the interesting things that Grant had in his script earlier today was really related to cash and the fact that we have incurred these business interruption charges, I believe you cited approximately $20 million.
Again, from a cash point of view, we have not received those insurance proceeds, which we are filing claims for. And so we'll work through that process. But just from a cash point of view, it is interesting to note that we have incurred those cash expenditures without reimbursement to date. Again, we're confident that we will have a good claims process, let me say, and capture that in the quarter to come.
Operator
We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Don for closing remarks.
Donald Young
Thank you, Kathleen. We appreciate your interest in Aspen Aerogels and look forward to sharing our fourth quarter results with you in early February. Be well, and have a good day. Thank you.
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
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