노마드 푸드 2026년 3분기 실적 발표회: 2027년 인플레이션, 비용 절감 및 4분기 가격 책정

주요 내용

• 노매드 푸즈는 주로 생선 관련 4분기 추가 인플레이션과 두 번째 정기 외 가격 인상에 따른 출하 패턴 불확실성에도 불구하고 2026년 실적 전망을 유지했습니다.
• 경영진은 총인플레이션 약 7%, 비용 절감 약 3%, 그리고 선별적 가격 조정 및 물량 조치를 통해 대응할 순인플레이션 약 4%라는 2027년 전제 조건을 재확인했습니다.
• 회사는 2027년 EBITDA 가이던스 0%~2%를 재확인했으며, 현금 흐름 개선, 비일회성 비용 절감 및 부채 감축(디레버리징) 계획에 변함이 없다고 밝혔습니다.
• 3분기 비일회성 비용은 400만 유로 미만이었습니다. 경영진은 또한 전년 동기 대비 보너스 효과를 조정한 기준 간접 비용이 감소했다고 말했습니다.
• 슈퍼마켓 냉동 시스템에 영향을 미친 사이버 공격으로 일시적인 차질이 발생했으나, 재충전 주문이 초기 영향을 충분히 상쇄했습니다. 경영진은 노매드 푸즈에 미친 순영향이 미미하고 약간 긍정적이며 중요한 수준은 아니라고 설명했습니다.
• 유럽 디스카운트 리테일러들과의 논의는 계속 진행 중입니다. 경영진은 협상에 대해 상당히 긍정적인 입장을 밝혔으나 새로운 상업적 업데이트는 제공하지 않았습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

노매드 푸즈는 경영진이 소비자 대면 직접 A&P(광고·진흥비)의 건강한 수준이라고 설명한 부분은 유지하면서 비직접적(nonworking) 광고·진흥 지출을 줄이고 있습니다. 회사는 또한 마케팅 효율성의 중요한 요소로 경쟁력 있는 가격 책정을 강조했습니다.

전년 동기 대비 보너스 및 성과급 보상 효과를 제외한 기초 간접비는 감소했습니다. 비용 조치에는 본사 오버헤드 축소, 지역 조직 개편, 발표된 소규모 공장 폐쇄 등이 포함됩니다.

디스카운트 채널과 관련해 경영진은 소매업체들과의 논의가 계속되고 있다고 밝혔습니다. 회사는 유럽 디스카운트 시장을 크고 성장하는 부문으로 보고 있으나 실적 발표 통화에서 추가적인 유통망 확보를 발표하지는 않았습니다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 기존 전망을 유지했습니다. 2026년 4분기 EBITDA는 주로 생선 부문의 추가 인플레이션으로 인해 압박을 받을 것으로 예상됩니다.

4분기 변동성의 주요 원인은 노매드 푸즈의 두 번째 정기 외 가격 인상에 대한 고객 반응과 그에 따른 출하 시기 및 물량에 미치는 영향입니다. 경영진은 또한 계획 대비 상방 가능성이 발생할 경우 성과 보상, 사업 강화 및 지속 가능한 장기 성장에 재투자될 수 있다고 밝혔습니다.

2027년과 관련해 회사는 약 7%의 총인플레이션과 약 3%의 비용 절감을 계속 예상하고 있어 순인플레이션은 약 4%가 될 것으로 보고 있습니다. 경영진은 일부 경우에는 가격 인상을 활용하고 다른 경우에는 물량 기회를 모색하는 등 선별적으로 대응할 계획입니다.

리스크 및 주목할 영역

• 투입 원가 인플레이션: 생선 인플레이션은 4분기에 확인된 주요 추가 압박 요인입니다.
• 가격 정책 집행: 두 번째 정기 외 가격 인상에 대한 고객 반응으로 인해 출하 패턴에 변동성이 생길 수 있습니다.
• 소매 사이버 보안: 슈퍼마켓 냉동 시스템에 대한 공격으로 프랑스, 벨기에 및 기타 유럽 시장에서 냉동 식품 공급에 차질이 생겼습니다. 노매드 푸즈는 자사 운영 및 공급망이 현재까지 사이버 사건을 겪지 않았다고 밝혔습니다.
• 재투자: 잠재적 상방 이익은 단기 이익으로 모두 반영되기보다 성과 보상 및 장기 성장 이니셔티브로 재배정될 수 있습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

애널리스트들은 디스카운트 채널 확장, 사이버 관련 소매 차질, 4분기 가이던스, 마케팅 효율성 및 2027년 비용 전망에 집중했습니다.

경영진은 냉동 시스템 사이버 공격으로 초기에는 소매점 공급 및 매출이 감소했으나, 이후 재충전 주문이 차질을 충분히 상쇄했다고 말했습니다. 전반적인 재무적 영향은 중요하지 않은 수준이었습니다.

비용 부문에서 경영진은 기초 간접비 개선의 원인을 구조조정 및 비용 절감 이니셔티브 덕분으로 돌렸습니다. 또한 A&P 감소가 소비자가 체감하는 마케팅보다는 비직접적 지출에 집중되어 있음을 재확인했습니다.

2027년과 관련해 경영진은 애널리스트 데이에서 발표한 인플레이션, 비용 절감, EBITDA 및 현금 흐름의 구성 요소에 변함이 없다고 밝혔습니다.

실적 발표 전화회의 전체 녹취록

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, greetings, and welcome to the Nomad Foods Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Q&A Session.

[Operator Instructions]

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Jason English, Head of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Jason English

Thank you, and hello, everyone. Welcome to Nomad Foods Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Question-and-Answer Session. We posted the associated press release, prepared remarks and investor presentation on Nomad Foods website at nomadfoods.com. I hope you've all had a chance to review them. I'm Jason English, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, and I'm joined by Dominic Brisby, our CEO; and Ruben Baldew, our CFO.

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about performance that are based on our view of the company's prospects, expectations and intentions at this time. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our press release, our filings with the SEC and in our investor presentation, which includes cautionary language. We'll also discuss non-IFRS financial measures during the call today. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with IFRS results.

Users can find the IFRS to non-IFRS reconciliations within our earnings release and in the appendices at the end of the slide presentation available on our website. Please note that certain financial information within this presentation represents adjusted figures. All adjusted figures have been adjusted primarily for, when applicable, share-based payment expenses and related employer payroll taxes, exceptional items, foreign currency translation charges or gains and hedge ineffectiveness. Unless otherwise noted, comments from here will refer to those adjusted numbers.

With that, operator, let's open the line to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

The first question is from Jon Tanwanteng from CJS Securities.

질의응답

Jonathan Tanwanteng

Congrats on getting back to the organic growth in the quarter. My first question is, I think you mentioned in your recent Investor Day that you were making significant progress in getting products into the discounters with one win and more in the pipeline. I was wondering if you could update us on that progress and how you're seeing that thrust into these new market segments evolve.

Dominic Brisby

Yes. Thank you very much for the question, and thanks for the congratulations on the results as well. We're always very happy to deliver for our shareholders. So we did talk about getting into discounters. And as you know, discounters is a massive segment in Europe, and it's a heavily growing one. We're still in conversations with them. So there's not that much new to talk about at the moment. But we're reasonably positive in how those discussions go. And as we have new news to report, we'll let you know what's going on there.

Jonathan Tanwanteng

Okay. Fair enough. And then just we've seen several reports in the media of cyberattacks on grocery stores in Europe. I think there have been 2 major ones so far. Can you talk about the impact that might be having on your results, your discussions with your customers and if that would be a negative or a positive for you as they restock or if there's going to be a financial issue with your customers?

Dominic Brisby

Yes, definitely. So for those who may not be familiar with the situation, cyberattacks on freezer systems occurred on certain supermarkets in France on October 11 and October 12 and caused disruptions to frozen food availability there. This also happened again earlier this week to numerous smaller retailers, mostly franchises, some of whom have not followed recommended security guidelines. And this occurred in Belgium and it occurred in various other European markets as well.

I think the first thing to say is these incidents are very unfortunate and highlight the importance of resilience across the frozen food chain. Our immediate priority has been to support our customers and support our consumers by leveraging the flexibility of our manufacturing and our supply network to restore product availability. More broadly, we're focused on strengthening supply chain resilience throughout our supply chain. This includes maintaining robust cybersecurity across our own operations, ensuring we have appropriate safeguards, ring-fencing capabilities, response protocols in place and so on. And it's worth noting we haven't experienced any cyber incidents within our own operations or our own supply chain to date.

We're also working very closely with our retail partners and logistics providers and suppliers to support efforts to strengthen resilience across the broader frozen food ecosystem. In terms of absolute business impact on Nomad, the net effect has not been material. So temporary freezer outages have reduced category availability and retail sales in the immediate aftermath of these attacks. But that impact has been more than offset by subsequent replenishment orders as customers have had to restock inventories. So as a result, the overall impact on our business has been modest and slightly positive, but not material.

Operator

The next question is from Scott Marks from Jefferies.

Scott Marks

I wanted to just ask first about the holding the guidance and the implications for Q4 because I think it implies a pretty wide range of outcomes for the quarter. So wondering if you can just walk us through some of the puts and takes as we think about the quarter as well as how to think about magnitude of impact or reversal from the tough prior year compares that you called out in the prerecorded remarks.

Ruben Baldew

Yes. Thank you, Scott. Let me take that question. So we have a range and also the guidance, if you look at quarter 4, there's a negative EBITDA. Now the main driver impacting EBITDA is the additional inflation in quarter 4, which we already alluded to earlier, which is mainly driven by the additional inflation on fish. And despite that, we're actually pleased that we have been able to maintain our EBITDA guidance.

The main driver of the range in the fourth quarter is the customer response to our second off-cycle price increase and the associated variability in our shipment patterns. As you know, we have the inflation coming into quarter 4. As we speak, we are taking the pricing, but there's a variability on the impact, how that could play out on our shipments. In addition, as we consistently communicate, any upside relative to our plan will be thoughtfully reinvested to restore incentive compensation, strengthening the business and also supporting sustainable long-term growth. Now -- and to the range, all of those factors appear to already be reflected in current market expectation. And as a result, we don't see a need to alter our outlook at this point.

Scott Marks

Okay. Understood. And then maybe just moving down, if we think about the operating expenses in the quarter, you held them pretty flat versus last year. And you also noted A&P being down in the year as you pulled back on some of the nonworking media. I'm wondering if you can help us understand some of the puts and takes there because previously, I think you had mentioned feeling comfortable about level of marketing spend, but maybe just shifting where it was spent. So wondering if you could just walk us through maybe both puts and takes on SG&A in addition to the A&P.

Dominic Brisby

Yes. So I'll start on the A&P point. So you remember that historically, Nomad spent a very large chunk of its total A&P on what we call nonworking, so essentially things which consumers don't see. As a result of this, we've been able to make sure that the level of working A&P through the course of this year and indeed in this quarter has remained pretty healthy. But we're not afraid to cut A&P when it's not working, when it's not something that consumers see and it's not something that's been visible.

The other thing that's worth saying, of course, as well is that if pricing is wrong, you can spend as much A&P as you like, and it's not going to have much of an impact. And we put enormous effort during the course of this year to make sure that our prices are competitive in the market, and this is something that we're benefiting from in certain areas. In terms of the SG&A, Ruben, maybe you'd like to handle that.

Ruben Baldew

No, sure, Dominic. So if you look at our indirect, and we've spoken before on the bonus rebuild. So if you completely compare SG&A this quarter versus last quarter, there is a kind of year-on-year impact of bonus and bonus rebuild versus what was done last year. If you correct for that, actually, our indirects are down, and that is a result of the fact that we're driving indirect restructuring. We shared at the Analyst Day and also, I think, in previous quarterly calls that we've taken steps on our central overhead costs. We've taken steps on our local organization. We've spoken about marketing. So those are things we're driving down in terms of savings in the indirect. By the way, then it's beyond savings in indirect. As you might have seen, we've also announced a smaller factory closure. So we're also tackling the cost base, excluding indirects, whilst making sure we don't spend a high amount of nonrecurring. And hopefully, you've also seen our nonrecurring, which was down quite a bit. So we're driving all those things. And underlying, we see a reduction of indirect driven by savings.

Operator

The next question is from Angeline Goh from Deutsche Bank.

Voon Pang Goh

This is Angeline on for Steve. Just a quick question on your '27 outlook. Any updates on your inflation targets or savings targets since we last spoke? Oil has moved a little bit from where it was.

Ruben Baldew

Yes, I can answer that. What you see today, also what we reiterated in our prepared remarks, is that we are reiterating the guidance, which we also gave during our Analyst Day. Within that, the assumptions we've given to you during the Analyst Day are unchanged. So you see inflation of around 7%. We -- that's gross inflation. We're driving savings hard, as I just mentioned, and it's not -- it's the biggest amount, but it's, I think, an example of us being decisive and tackling the cost base of small factory closure. So we're estimating savings to be around 3%. With that, we're looking at a net inflation of 4%. We'll tackle that through pricing. But as I said before, it's not only one-dimensional price discussion. We will be quite surgical. In some cases, we'll go to price. In some cases, we go a bit more on volume if we see a volume opportunity.

So I think the overall construct of our plan hasn't changed also in terms of the EBITDA guidance, which we reconfirm to 0% to 2%, and also in terms of driving cash in terms of lower nonrecurring. You've seen our nonrecurring this quarter was less than EUR 4 million. There was a kind of underlying help, maybe underlying was more like EUR 6.5 million, EUR 7 million. So I think the building blocks we've set out to drive top line growth to drive EBITDA growth in a sustainable manner to drive cash flow growth also by lower nonrecurring and therefore, better quality of earnings and therefore, also deleveraging have not changed versus what we set out around a month ago.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Dominic Brisby for closing comments.

Dominic Brisby

Thank you all very much for joining us today, and thank you for your interest in Nomad Foods.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.