CVR 에너지(CVI) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표회: 42억 달러 규모 정유공장 계약 및 사상 최대 실적

CVR 에너지(NYSE: CVI)는 강력한 그룹 3 크랙 스프레드와 정유 처리량 증가에 힘입어 2026년 3분기 순이익 5억 6,300만 달러, 조정 EBITDA 5억 8,200만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했다. 또한 인수 금액 42억 달러 규모의 마라톤 페트롤리엄 정제소 2곳 및 관련 자산 인수 계약을 체결했다고 발표했다.

핵심 요약

• 2026년 3분기 순이익은 5억 6,300만 달러(희석주당순이익(EPS) 5.67달러)를 기록했다. 조정 주당순이익은 4.00달러, 조정 EBITDA는 5억 8,200만 달러에 달했다.
• 석유 부문 조정 EBITDA는 주로 그룹 3 크랙 스프레드 확대 및 처리량 증가에 힘입어 2025년 3분기 1억 2,000만 달러에서 5억 6,500만 달러로 증가했다.
• CVR 에너지는 마라톤 페트롤리엄의 세인트폴 파크 및 맨단 정제소, 관련 마케팅 사업, 일부 물류 자산을 약 42억 달러에 인수하기로 합의했다.
• 인수 대상 정제소의 명목 원유 처리 용량은 하루 총 약 17만 7,000배럴이다. 이번 거래로 CVR 에너지의 총 용량은 하루 약 20만 7,000배럴에서 38만 4,000배럴로 늘어난다.
• 경영진은 거래 완료 후 첫 1년 동안 이번 인수가 주당순이익과 잉여현금흐름을 50% 이상 증가시키고, 연간 약 7,000만 달러 규모의 시너지 효과를 창출할 것으로 예상한다.
• 이사회는 2026년 3분기 주당 0.10달러의 배당금을 선언했다. 경영진은 정제 업황의 상승 사이클이 2027년까지 이어질 수 있을 것으로 전망하면서도, 인수 이후 디레버리징(부채 감축)을 최우선 과제로 삼을 계획이다.

핵심 재무 실적

발표된 실적에는 RFS(신재생연료의무이행) 부채의 호의적인 변동 3억 1,400만 달러, 재고자산 평가 효과 3,500만 달러, 미실현 파생상품 손실 1억 2,700만 달러가 포함되었다. 총 파생상품 손실은 2억 5,900만 달러로, 실현 손실 1억 3,300만 달러와 미실현 손실 1억 2,700만 달러로 구성된다.

사업 및 운영 실적

합산 처리량은 하루 약 22만 8,000배럴이었다. 원유 가동률은 명목 용량의 약 105%에 달했으며, 경질유 수율은 총 처리량의 93%를 기록했다.

그룹 3 2-1-1 크랙 스프레드는 배럴당 평균 68.50달러로, 2025년 3분기 25.94달러에서 상승했다. CVR 에너지의 조정 실현 마진은 배럴당 34.97달러로, 51%의 캡처율(capture rate)을 나타냈다.

RIN(신재생연료 인증번호) 가격은 전년 동기 대비 125% 이상 상승하여 배럴당 14달러를 상회했다. RFS 부채 변동을 제외한 순 RIN 비용은 2억 3,500만 달러(배럴당 11.20달러)였다. 경영진은 이로 인해 분기 벤치마크 캡처율이 약 16%포인트 감소했다고 밝혔다.

미국 환경청(EPA)은 윈우드 리파이닝 컴퍼니의 2025년 의무에 대해 소규모 정제소 면제권을 완전 승인하여 재무상태표상 RFS 부채를 2억 5,300만 달러 줄였다. 9월 30일 기준 미지급 RFS 의무금액은 2억 3,000만 달러였으며, 이는 평균 가격 2.04달러로 평가된 1억 1,300만 개의 RIN에 해당한다.

석유 부문 직접 영업비용은 주식 기반 보상을 포함한 인건비 증가로 인해 2025년 3분기 배럴당 5.69달러에서 6.15달러로 증가했다.

비료 부문 조정 EBITDA는 2,000만 달러로 감소했다. 암모니아 가동률은 80%로 계획된 이스트 두뷰크(East Dubuque) 정기보수를 반영했다. CVR 파트너스는 보통주 단위당 1.79달러의 분배금을 선언했으며, CVR 에너지는 37%의 지분을 바탕으로 약 700만 달러를 수령할 것으로 예상한다.

마라톤 정제소 인수

42억 달러 규모의 이번 거래에는 미네소타주의 하루 10만 5,000배럴 규모 세인트폴 파크 정제소, 노스다코타주의 하루 7만 2,000배럴 규모 맨단 정제소, 최대 590개 브랜드 매장을 보유한 관련 마케팅 사업부 및 일부 물류 자산이 포함된다.

경영진은 인수 금액이 피인수 사업부의 2026년 추정 EBITDA의 3.5배 미만 수준이라고 밝혔다. 2026년 9월 30일로 끝난 9개월간의 프로포마(추정) 기준에 따르면, CVR 에너지의 EBITDA는 약 9억 달러에서 약 20억 달러로 증가하고, 희석 EPS는 3.73달러에서 7.67달러로 상승할 것이라고 밝혔다.

회사는 보통주 지분, 현금 및 부채를 통해 인수 자금을 조달할 계획이다. 조달처에는 트라피구라(Trafigura)의 대규모 보통주 투자, IEP의 5억 달러 지분 투자 약정, CVR 에너지의 자체 현금 약 6억 5,000만 달러, 25억 달러 규모의 확정 브릿지 파이낸싱, 그리고 11억 달러로 증액된 ABL 한도 대출에서의 3억 달러 예상 인출액 등이 포함된다.

CVR 파트너스를 제외한 프로포마 부채는 거래 완료 시점에 약 38억 달러, 즉 경영진이 추정한 2026년 연결 프로포마 EBITDA의 2배 미만이 될 것으로 예상된다. 또한 CVR 에너지는 잔여 2028년 만기 선순위 채권을 상환하고 미드사이클(상업적 중간 주기)을 상회하는 마진 환경에서 창출된 현금흐름을 활용해 부채 비율을 줄일 계획이다.

경영진 실적 가이던스

인수된 마라톤 자산을 제외하고, CVR 에너지는 다음과 같은 2026년 4분기 전망을 제시했다.

경영진은 2026년 연간 연결 자본적 지출을 약 2억 2,000만 달러에서 2억 4,000만 달러로 예상한다. 비료 부문 전망에는 10월에 완료된 이스트 두뷰크 정기보수가 반영되었다.

마라톤 인수 거래는 하트-스콧-로디노(Hart-Scott-Rodino) 대기 기간 만료를 포함한 일반적인 관례적 거래 종결 조건 및 당국의 승인에 따라 2026년 말까지 완료될 것으로 예상된다.

리스크 및 관전 포인트

• 이번 인수는 규제 당국의 승인, 자금 조달 실행 및 기타 관례적인 거래 종결 조건에 따라 달라질 수 있다.
• 기대되는 시너지 효과와 주당 가치 증대를 실현하려면 인수 대상 정제소, 마케팅 사업 및 물류 자산의 성공적인 통합이 전제되어야 한다.
• 프로포마 부채가 약 38억 달러로 증가할 것으로 예상됨에 따라 거래 완료 후 디레버리징 및 현금흐름 관리가 중요해질 것이다.
• 높게 유지되는 RIN 비용은 정제 마진에 지속적인 상당한 압박 요인이다. 이번 인수를 통해 혼합(blending) 용량이 확장되어 CVR 에너지의 미헤지 RIN 노출이 줄어들겠지만, 통합 법인이 RIN 롱(매수/초과) 상태가 되지는 않을 것이다.
• 정제 마진은 변동성이 큰 원유 및 석유 제품 시장의 영향을 계속 받는다. 향후 12~24개월간 마진 상승세가 지속될 것이라는 경영진의 전망은 부분적으로 글로벌 공급 차질과 낮은 재고 수준에 근거한다.
• 본 거래의 예상 편익, 시너지 효과, 주당 가치 증대 및 완료 일정은 미래 예측에 관한 사항이며 실행 리스크에 노출되어 있다.

애널리스트 질의응답(Q&A) 주요 내용

경영진은 미드사이클 가치평가 프레임워크에 RIN 변동성을 반영해 조정한 약 10년간의 과거 크랙 스프레드를 적용한다고 밝혔다. 피인수 자산의 미드사이클 추정 이익 수준은 한 애널리스트가 언급한 약 4억 달러의 두 배 가까이에 달할 것으로 평가되었다. 경영진은 또한 최근 시장의 추가 상승분이 협상 가치평가에 반영되지 않았음에도 향후 미드사이클 마진이 과거 수준을 상회할 수 있다고 본다.

피인수 정제소는 하루 약 12만 6,000배럴의 바켄(Bakken) 원유와 하루 5만 배럴에 약간 못 미치는 캐나다산 원유를 처리한다. 캐나다산 물량의 절반 정도는 WCS 또는 기타 중질유(heavy crude)다.

경영진은 과거 피인수 자산 제품의 약 15%만이 벌크 시장에 공급되었다고 밝혔다. 맨단 정제소는 노스다코타주의 유일한 정제소로서 지역 제품 공급 측면에서 이점을 누리고 있으며, 세인트폴 파크는 매력적인 대도시 랙(rack) 시장에 공급하고 있다.

인수 대상 사업은 소매점 사업이 아닌 마케팅 사업이다. CVR 에너지는 제품 공급과 혼합에 대한 통제력을 강화하여 추가 마진을 확보하고 연결 기준 미헤지 RIN 노출을 줄일 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

맨단 정제소는 2023년, 2024년, 2025년 의무에 대해 50%의 소규모 정제소 면제권을 부여받았다. 경영진은 인수 가치평가 시 향후 면제 가능성을 반영하지 않았으므로, 추가적인 면제 혜택이 발생할 경우 기존 추정치에 대한 추가 상승 요인이 될 수 있다.

CVR 에너지는 전망치에 마라톤의 현재 계획된 자본 프로젝트를 포함했다. 경영진은 피인수 자산의 관리가 잘 이루어져 왔으며, 단기적인 우선순위는 대규모 구조 재편보다는 성공적인 통합에 맞춰져 있다고 설명했다. 다만 세인트폴 파크의 코커(coker) 설치와 같은 장기 프로젝트는 고려할 수 있다고 덧붙였다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to CVR Energy's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Richard J. Roberts, Chief Financial Officer. Richard, please go ahead.

Richard Roberts

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. We very much appreciate you joining us this morning for our CVR Energy Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. With me today are Dane Neumann, our Chief Executive Officer; Mike Wright, our Chief Operating Officer; and other members of management.

Today, we announced our agreement to acquire 2 refineries from Marathon Petroleum, and we have posted a presentation on the Investor Relations section of our website. We will refer to that presentation during our prepared remarks.

Prior to discussing our 2026 third quarter results, let me remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements as that term is defined under federal securities laws. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical facts may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. You are cautioned that these statements may be affected by important factors set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and our latest earnings release. As a result, actual operations or results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by law.

This call also includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non-GAAP measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our 2026 third quarter earnings release that we filed with the SEC and Form 10-Q for the period and will be discussed during the call.

In addition, our remarks today include forward-looking statements regarding the proposed acquisition, including its expected benefits, synergies, accretion, financing and timing to close. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the satisfaction of customary closing conditions and regulatory clearance, our ability to finance the transaction and to integrate the acquired assets and the other factors described in our press release and SEC filings.

With that said, I'll turn the call over to Dane.

Dane Neumann

Thank you, Richard. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our earnings call. This is a historic day for CVR Energy as we announced the largest acquisition in the company's history, along with a record earnings quarter on both a consolidated basis and in the Refining segment. We are also pleased to announce a third quarter 2026 dividend of $0.10 per share. We believe current market conditions, along with the platform expansion opportunities afforded by this transaction, generate tailwinds for our business that should create tremendous value for our shareholders. Before Richard takes you through the quarter, I want to spend a few minutes on the news we announced this morning.

Starting on Slide 2 of the presentation, CVR Energy has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Marathon's St. Paul Park, Minnesota and Mandan, North Dakota refineries, along with their associated marketing business and certain logistics assets for total consideration of approximately $4.2 billion, subject to certain customary closing adjustments. The 2 refineries have a combined nameplate crude capacity of approximately 177,000 barrels per day with St. Paul Park at 105,000 and Mandan at 72,000. Combined with Coffeyville and Wynnewood, our crude processing capacity would increase from approximately 207,000 to approximately 384,000 barrels per day.

This is a transformative acquisition for CVR Energy, nearly doubling our refining capacity, enhancing our geographic scope and diversifying our distribution footprint through a highly complementary marketing and logistics platform. The transaction implies an asset acquisition multiple of less than 3.5x management's estimate of 2026 EBITDA for the acquired business. For the 9 months ended September 30, 2026, on a pro forma basis, giving effect to the transaction, CVR's EBITDA increased from approximately $900 million on a stand-alone basis to approximately $2 billion and diluted earnings per share increased from $3.73 on a stand-alone basis to $7.67. Further, we expect the transaction to be greater than 50% accretive to CVR's earnings and free cash flow in the first full year after closing.

We intend to fund the transaction with a mix of common equity, cash and debt, and we plan to redeem our outstanding 2028 senior notes. The equity portion is intended to be funded by a large common equity investment from Trafigura, along with a $500 million equity commitment from IEP and approximately $650 million of cash from the CVI balance sheet. We have $2.5 billion of committed bridge financing from our banks, which we expect to replace with syndicated secured debt financing prior to closing, and we expect to draw $300 million on an upsized $1.1 billion ABL facility.

We also expect to equally and ratably secure our 2031 and 2034 senior notes upon the completion of the permanent financing. Pro forma for the transaction, we expect total debt, excluding CVR Partners of approximately $3.8 billion at closing, less than 2x our estimated 2026 consolidated pro forma EBITDA. We remain committed to a strong balance sheet, and we intend to capitalize on the above mid-cycle margin environment to further reduce leverage.

As the potential transaction is absorbed, we also see potential to substantially improve our corporate credit rating profile. The transaction has been unanimously approved by our Board of Directors and is expected to close by year-end 2026, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory clearance, including expiration of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act.

Turning to Slide 3. This is a unique opportunity for us to acquire high-quality geographically advantaged assets from an established operator at a compelling valuation. This transaction would expand our footprint to new geographic areas across the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Plains regions, broadening our exposure to regional transportation fuel demand and expanding our presence across the broader PADD II region.

From an operations perspective, these assets are similar to what we own and operate today, medium-sized inland refineries with advantaged crude access via Bakken and Canadian crude oil processing. They are also well-maintained assets, supported by strong historical investment by Marathon that drove average utilization levels over the past 5 years in the high 90s. The transaction would include Marathon's associated marketing business with up to 590 branded locations across the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Plains regions and long-standing relationships with strategic counterparties. It gives us a diversified distribution mix across gasoline, ultra-low sulfur diesel, jet fuel and asphalt in new geographies through a combination of local rack sales and wholesale channels and a platform for potential expansion into our existing footprint.

The business also has high blending capacity, which would increase our internal RIN generation capability and reduce some of our reliance on third-party RIN purchases, potentially further improving the overall RIN exposure of the company on a consolidated basis. I would also note that Mandan has received a small refinery exemption for 50% of their 2023, 2024 and 2025 obligations. Additionally, a larger, more diversified asset base would support more durable free cash flow through the cycle, enhanced balance sheet flexibility and more sustainable capital returns. This should also mitigate the volatility inherent in our smaller existing system. We expect to see approximately $70 million in cost and operational synergies on an annual run rate basis. Ultimately, we believe a larger platform improves our positioning for future growth, supported by a larger and more diversified shareholder base.

Turning to Slide 5. We believe this transaction comes at an attractive point in the cycle with a compelling forward margin environment. The ongoing conflicts in Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East continue to drive volatility across crude oil and refined product markets. Disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia continues to constrain global refined product supply. Even if an effective reopening of the strait eases crude supply constraints, we believe refined product prices could stay elevated for longer as damaged refineries must be repaired and global inventories rebuilt. We think global supply dislocations and historically low inventory levels support a higher than mid-cycle margin environment for at least the next 12 to 24 months.

Looking at the U.S., the domestic refining fleet ran hard in the third quarter as companies deferred maintenance and maximize throughput volumes to keep product supply flowing to meet the needs of consumers. U.S. refinery utilization averaged 96% in the quarter, well above the 5-year average of 92% for the same time period. Despite the high utilization, refined product inventories have continued to decline due to resilient demand trends and increased refined product exports. Domestic gasoline inventories are currently 5% below the 5-year average and distillate inventories are 9% below the 5-year average. Exports of gasoline and diesel from the U.S. averaged 2.9 million barrels per day for the third quarter, an increase of nearly 20% from the third quarter of 2025.

Slide 6 shows how PADD II refining dynamics reflect similar trends with supply-demand fundamentals and widening light heavy differentials supporting margins in the region.

Before we speak to our third quarter results, I want to recognize the employees at St. Paul Park and Mandan, who have built a long record of safe and reliable operations, along with the team at CVR Energy that has worked tirelessly on this transaction. We look forward to welcoming these new employees to CVR Energy following our closing, and our focus between now and closing will be a seamless transaction for our new colleagues and customers.

Now let me turn the call over to Richard to discuss our third quarter results.

Richard Roberts

Thank you, Dane, and good morning, everyone. Turning to our third quarter results highlighted on Slide 10. For the third quarter of 2026, our consolidated net income was $563 million, earnings per share was $5.67 and EBITDA was $804 million. Our third quarter results include a favorable change in our RFS liability of $314 million, favorable inventory valuation impacts of $35 million and unrealized derivative losses of $127 million. Excluding the above-mentioned items, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $582 million and earnings per share was $4. Adjusted EBITDA in the Petroleum segment was $565 million for the third quarter compared to $120 million for the third quarter of 2025. Elevated Group 3 crack spreads and higher throughput volumes drove the majority of the increase from the prior year period, offset somewhat by higher RIN expenses and realized derivative losses.

Combined total throughput for the third quarter of 2026 was approximately 228,000 barrels per day. Crude utilization for the quarter was approximately 105% of nameplate capacity and light product yield was 93% on total throughput volumes. The Group 3 2-1-1 averaged $68.50 per barrel for the third quarter of 2026 compared to $25.94 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025.

Our third quarter realized margin adjusted for the change in RFS liability, inventory valuation and unrealized derivative losses was $34.97 per barrel, representing a 51% capture rate on the Group 3 2-1-1 benchmark. RIN price increased significantly from third quarter 2025 levels, up over 125% to average over $14 per barrel for the third quarter of 2026. Net RIN expense for the quarter, excluding the change in RFS liability, was $235 million or $11.20 per barrel, which negatively impacted our capture rate for the quarter by approximately 16%.

The estimated accrued RFS obligation on the balance sheet was $230 million at September 30, representing 113 million RINs mark-to-market at an average price of $2.04. We were pleased with the EPA's decision in August to grant Wynnewood Refining Company a full SRE for its 2025 obligation, which reduced the RFS liability on the balance sheet by $253 million. We appreciate EPA's recognition that Wynnewood Refining Company is disproportionately economically harmed by the RFS and deserves full relief. However, the exorbitant cost of RINs continues to disproportionately harm small and merchant refineries like ours, along with American consumers as RINs currently represent roughly $0.28 of every gallon that hits the pump. If the President wants to lower the price of fuel today, he should pull the only lever he can that doesn't need an act of Congress, exercise of the EPA administrator's existing RFS waiver authority.

Our third quarter 2026 results include derivative losses totaling $259 million, comprised of a $133 million realized loss and a $127 million unrealized loss. For the fourth quarter of 2026, we have approximately 2.3 million barrels of diesel hedged with a total notional value of approximately $93 million. For 2027, we have approximately 3.2 million barrels of diesel hedged fairly ratably across the year.

Direct operating expenses in the Petroleum segment were $6.15 per barrel for the third quarter compared to $5.69 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025. The increase in direct operating expenses per barrel was primarily due to increased personnel expense, largely due to share-based compensation.

Adjusted EBITDA in the Fertilizer segment was $20 million for the third quarter compared to $71 million for the prior year period. Ammonia utilization rate was 80%, which was impacted by the planned turnaround at East Dubuque during the quarter. The Board of Directors of CVR Partners General Partner declared a distribution of $1.79 per common unit for the third quarter of 2026. As CVR Energy owns approximately 37% of CVR Partners common units, we will receive a proportionate cash distribution of approximately $7 million.

Cash flow from operations for the third quarter of 2026 was $655 million and free cash flow was $593 million. Significant uses of cash in the quarter included $61 million of capital spending, $46 million of cash interest, $41 million paid for the noncontrolling interest portion of the CVR Partners' second quarter 2026 distribution and $10 million for dividends. Total consolidated capital spending on an accrual basis was $58 million, which included $22 million in the Petroleum segment and $35 million in the Fertilizer segment. For the full year 2026, we estimate total consolidated capital spending to be approximately $220 million to $240 million.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with a consolidated cash balance of $1.3 billion, which includes $158 million of cash in the Fertilizer segment. Total liquidity as of September 30, excluding CVR Partners, was approximately $1.7 billion, which was comprised primarily of $1.1 billion of cash and availability under the ABL facility of $530 million.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2026 and excluding the acquired Marathon assets for our Petroleum segment, we estimate total throughput to be approximately 210,000 to 225,000 barrels per day, direct operating expenses to range between $115 million and $125 million and total capital spending to be between $45 million and $55 million. For the Fertilizer segment, we estimate our ammonia utilization rate to be between 88% and 93%, which will be impacted by the completion of the East Dubuque turnaround in October. We estimate direct operating expenses, excluding inventory and turnaround impacts, to be between $58 million and $63 million, turnaround expenses to be between $4 million and $6 million and total capital spending to be between $26 million and $34 million.

With that, Dane, I'll turn it back to you.

Dane Neumann

Thank you, Richard. In summary, we delivered a great quarter in refining, and we remain constructive on the outlook for both segments. I would like to thank our employees for all their hard work during the quarter, delivering crude utilization of 105% and completing the East Dubuque turnaround on the revised schedule. Our third quarter results show the benefits of focusing on safe and reliable operations. We continue to believe this up cycle in refining could persist through 2027, and today's announcement is a clear example of our focus on pursuing accretive growth opportunities intended to add value for our shareholders.

We have approached the Marathon acquisition with discipline. We underwrote it on historical mid-cycle earnings rather than today's elevated margins and at less than 3.5x our estimates of 2026 EBITDA that includes both Refining and Marketing, we consider the transaction to be extremely compelling for CVR Energy through the cycle with the current environment as upside. Subject to closing, we look forward to welcoming the St. Paul Park and Mandan employees to CVR Energy.

With that, operator, we are ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH.

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Matthew Blair

Congrats on the strong quarter. I think you mentioned at the end that this transaction was predicated on mid-cycle economics. Maybe you could talk a little bit about what your assumptions are for mid-cycle. If we look back, it looks like the Mid-Con segment for MPC made about $5 to $6 a barrel in 2024 and 2025, which I think, if I'm doing the math correctly, would put the EBITDA around $400 million. Does that seem reasonable for a mid-cycle environment? Or are you projecting something higher?

Richard Roberts

Matthew, yes, the idea of mid-cycle and refining is something that we talk about every quarter. I would say from a historical basis, not taking into account any of the changes in refining fundamentals recently, looking back over a 10-year period, that's typically the way we view mid-cycle. We look at a 10-year period of cracks, adjust that for the RIN component since the RVO has been so volatile and then gross that up with the current RIN price on a go-forward basis, we get to a number probably close to double that, that you threw out for a historical mid-cycle basis on these assets.

I think our view is that given all the changes in the global refining supply-demand picture recently, that the go-forward mid-cycle is probably higher than the historical mid-cycle. But I would point out, too, that the negotiations on these assets started before the Ukraine war kicked off. So all of the upside that we've seen in the market here recently and that we're looking forward to for the next couple of years most likely, really wasn't factored into the valuation that we had here.

Matthew Blair

Okay. Sounds good. And then could you talk a little bit about the crude slate and then the product exposure for the acquired refineries. I think I remember the St. Paul Park refinery running about 1/3 WCS. And so I guess that would put the total crude slate for the package at maybe roughly 20% WCS, 80% Bakken. Is that reasonable?

And then on the product exposure, I thought that these refineries also sold into the Mid-Con Group 3 product market like your existing system. So what is a good approximation for the split between Mid-Con and Midwest exposure for the acquired assets on the product line?

Dane Neumann

Yes, Matt, this is Dane. So total crude throughput for the acquired assets, call it, around 175,000 barrels a day. Bakken is about 126,000 of that, just approximately. And then total Canadian just under 50,000 barrels and half of that Canadian would be WCS or heavy. So -- and then on the, call it, the product side, these assets actually, with their wholesale marketing and strong, call it, presence of distribution in the, call it, the northern part of the Mid-Con -- there's really historically about 15% of their product that ends up, kind of, in that bulk market, so substantially lower than ours, and they have significantly more advantaged product placement.

North Dakota, obviously, the only -- sorry, Mandan is the only refinery in North Dakota and can place the majority of its product in relatively local areas. And then St. Paul Park has a really attractive metropolitan area that allows it to place the majority of its product over the rack. So from a marketing perspective, substantially different than what we have in our existing business today and don't really see a significant amount of overlap or bulk market volumes.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

Neil Mehta

Congrats on the transaction. I had a couple and I might queue back in here, which is -- the first is just around Mandan. Historically, this has been eligible for a small refinery exemption. Can you remind us that, I believe, has been more partial versus full, but help us size what that's been in terms of a cash flow tailwind? And how does that feed into the way that you thought about valuing these assets?

Dane Neumann

Yes. Thanks, Neil. Yes. So Mandan has received 50% waivers for the '23, '24, '25 period. In terms of our valuation, we actually did not apply any waivers into the go-forward business and any waiver received would be upside from our transaction valuation.

Neil Mehta

That's helpful. And just the follow-up is how do you weigh this relative to the path that you were on around deleveraging? Because you had gotten the balance sheet back into a good place at the precipice of reinstating the dividend. So how do you think about this relative to return of capital?

Dane Neumann

Yes. So Neil, for us, I think that we've all talked a long time that CVI, just kind of as a stand-alone business, always suffered from lack of geography, lack of scale and lack of really controlling the barrel downstream of this. So as this opportunity came up, and again, as Richard pointed out, we believe in an elevated period of time of cracks here for the next year or so or further, taking a little excess leverage and then using the incremental tailwinds we have from the market to get us back to a more normalized level across the entire fleet became the more accretive option for us. So while there is a little bit of excess leverage, if you think about a mid-cycle level on a, call it, LTM or on a '26 estimate or what we believe the '27 environment look like, it seems like a decent leverage target, but we want to continue to work that down over time.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

Neil Mehta

Can you spend a little bit more time talking about the retail side of the business and the marketing side of the business? A lot of us covered Northern Tier back in the day, and I know that was a business they were looking to grow. But just give us a mark-to-market on that -- on those assets and how we should be thinking about that?

Dane Neumann

Yes, Neil. So just to clarify, it's not a retail business and that we don't own the retail stores. It's more...

Neil Mehta

As a marketing...

Dane Neumann

Marketing [indiscernible]. So for one, that's a business we don't have today in our existing assets in the Southern Mid-Con and Group 3. So there is some margin that we're giving up between where we're selling in the bulk market and where that product ends up to the ultimate retailer. So by controlling that piece of the value chain, there's some incremental margin that we get to capture there. In addition to that or as part of that, which is actually a pretty meaningful piece, is the RIN generation that comes along with controlling that piece of the business, along with the significant rack sales relative to what we have today.

So I think we mentioned in the prepared remarks, but on a go-forward basis, even not giving credit to the SREs that we've gotten at Wynnewood and that Mandan has received, our consolidated RIN obligation would go down quite a bit just from the additional blending. And as you layer in those potential additional SRE benefits that it goes even lower. So incremental margin there just on controlling more of the barrel and where it goes on top of the additional RIN generation.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH.

Matthew Blair

I guess just to clarify on the RIN exposure, are you saying that you can overblend on these assets that you actually are, I guess, net long RINs on the acquired assets? Or maybe I'm misinterpreting here.

Dane Neumann

Yes. No, Matt. It wouldn't be a net long position. The relative blending capacity of the acquired assets is significantly higher than the relative blending capacity of the CVR assets, predominantly the St. Paul Park with that local rack supplying a substantial portion of their volumes. What the RIN exposure comment is, as it relates to the weighted average across the 2 facilities, our percentage will come down in terms of open exposure pretty dramatically.

Matthew Blair

Okay. And then are you expecting any notable capital investments with this acquisition? Just thinking that the St. Paul Park runs a fair amount of WCS, but I believe it still does not have a coker. Would you consider putting in a coker or any other notable capital investments?

Richard Roberts

Thanks, Matt. I'll take that one. Yes, we would consider it. I think that there's -- really that's a pretty heavy lift in terms of capital dollars and really where would that -- how much more of the value would we capture in that mode. Coffeyville, we do have the benefit of having a gasifier fertilizer business right next door and can get a decent netback and that's a good synergy, and we probably don't have that as much. It's a pretty big transportation that they get from St. Paul down. There is capital that is planned, and we put all of the capital that was currently planned with Marathon into our future forecast, and we expect to complete those. Not -- they've done a really good job of maintaining those assets and don't see really a lot of makeup capital like you see in some other assets that go on the market. So excited about these assets the way they are well maintained and reliable. So look forward to working with them. And really, it's more about a successful integration than it is trying to re-kit that right away.

Matthew Blair

Sounds good. And then finally, is there any sort of earn-out on the transaction?

Dane Neumann

No, sir.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Dane for closing remarks.

Dane Neumann

All right. Again, I would like to thank you all for your interest in CVR Energy and our employees for their hard work and commitment towards safe, reliable and environmentally responsible operations. And we look forward to reviewing our fourth quarter 2026 results during our next call in a couple of months. Have a safe day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.