로레이트 에듀케이션(LAUR) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콜: 등록생 증가, 가이던스 재확인

핵심 요약

• 로레이트 에듀케이션은 2026년 3분기 매출 4억 8500만 달러 및 조정 EBITDA 1억 4700만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했다. 우호적인 환율 효과로 2900만 달러가 매출에 기여했다.
• 고정환율 기준 및 학사 일정 시기를 조정한 3분기 매출은 전년 동기 대비 6% 증가했으며, 조정 EBITDA는 14% 상승했다.
• 이번 등록 주기 동안 신규 및 총 등록 인원은 각각 8% 및 6% 증가했다. 멕시코의 1차 등록은 8% 증가한 반면, 페루의 2차 등록은 9% 증가했다.
• 3분기 조정 EPS는 전년 동기 대비 2배 증가한 0.52달러를 기록했다. 보고된 순이익은 1억 100만 달러(주당 0.73달러)였다.
• 경영진은 매출 19억 2000만~19억 3000만 달러, 조정 EBITDA 5억 9300만~5억 9900만 달러, 조정 EPS 2.04~2.10달러의 2026년 가이던스를 재확인했다.
• 이사회는 1억 5000만 달러를 자사주 매입용으로 추가 승인하여, 9월 30일 기준 추정 잔여 승인 한도는 2억 2500만 달러가 되었다.

주요 재무 데이터

2026년 첫 9개월 동안 매출은 7% 증가하고 조정 EBITDA는 9% 고정환율 및 학사 일정 조정 기준으로 상승했습니다.

사업 및 영업 실적

멕시코

멕시코의 주요 입학 시즌 신입생 등록 수는 8% 증가했으며, 이는 대면 프로그램과 신설 푸에블라 캠퍼스의 성장에 힘입은 것입니다. 푸에블라는 멕시코 입학생 수 성장에 약 3퍼센트 포인트 기여하며 경영진의 예상치를 소폭 상회하는 실적을 기록했습니다.

멕시코의 전체 등록 학생 수는 5% 증가했습니다. 달력 효과가 조정된 3분기 매출과 조정 EBITDA는 6% 및 12% 각각 고정환율 기준으로 증가했습니다.

첫 9개월 동안 멕시코 매출은 6% 증가한 반면, 조정 EBITDA는 3%. 경영진은 EBITDA 성장세 둔화의 원인을 투자 시점과 푸에블라 캠퍼스 가동 확대 때문이라고 설명했습니다.

페루

페루의 2차 학기 신규 등록 학생 수는 9% 증가했으며, 이는 직장인을 대상으로 하는 100% 온라인 프로그램이 견인했습니다. 총 등록 학생 수는 5% 증가했습니다.

달력 일수 조정 기준 3분기 매출은 6% 증가했으며, 조정 EBITDA는 고정환율 기준 15% 증가했습니다. 연초 대비 누적 매출과 조정 EBITDA는 각각 7% 및 14% 증가했습니다.

로리엣은 페루에 4만 명 이상의 100% 온라인 학생을 보유하고 있습니다. 경영진은 저가 온라인 프로그램의 급격한 확장이 포트폴리오 믹스를 통해 학생당 평균 매출을 감소시키고 있으며, 이러한 영향이 2027년까지 이어질 것으로 예상된다고 밝혔습니다.

캠퍼스 확장

로리엣은 2025년 초 이후 리마 동부의 아테, 몬테레이, 푸에블라 등 3개 캠퍼스를 개교했습니다. 경영진은 캠퍼스가 정원을 채우기까지 일반적으로 4~5년이 걸린다고 설명했습니다.

2027년에는 2개 캠퍼스가 추가 개교할 예정입니다. 남부 리마 캠퍼스는 1분기에 개교할 것으로 예상되며, 메리다 캠퍼스는 멕시코의 2027년 9월 주요 신입생 모집 전 개교할 예정입니다.

메리다 캠퍼스는 약 6,000명의 학생을 수용할 수 있는 규모로 예상되며, 설비투자(CAPEX)는 2,000만 달러대 초중반 수준이 될 전망입니다. 경영진은 2026년 동안 추가 부지를 확보한 후 2028년에 캠퍼스 개교를 가속화할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다고 밝혔습니다.

경영진 가이던스

2026년 4분기 매출은 5억 4,600만 달러~5억 5,600만 달러, 조정 EBITDA는 1억 9,800만 달러~2억 400만 달러로 경영진은 전망하고 있습니다. 해당 전망에는 추산 2,000만 달러의 연중 학사 일정 관련 부정적 영향이 포함되어 있습니다.

경영진은 환율이 연간 가이던스의 상단과 하단을 나누는 주요 변수라고 설명했습니다. 현재 환율 수준에서는 실적이 중간값 부근에 위치할 것이며, 통화 강세나 약세에 따라 실적이 각각 상단 또는 하단으로 이동할 수 있습니다.

리스크 및 관전 포인트

• 환율: 3분기 이후 멕시코 페소화와 페루 솔화가 약세를 나타내며 해당 분기 동안 기록했던 우호적인 환율 흐름이 반전되었습니다.
• 학사 일정 타이밍: 개강일 변경으로 인해 분기 간 매출과 조정 EBITDA가 이동했으며, 4분기 매출에는 2,000만 달러의 예상 역풍이 포함되었습니다.
• 온라인 비중 및 이탈률: 페루의 지속 성장하는 100% 온라인 등록 학생층은 다른 형태보다 학생 1인당 평균 매출이 낮고 주기 내 이탈률이 높습니다.
• 캠퍼스 투자: 신규 캠퍼스 구축으로 인해 약 500만 달러의 부정적 영향이 발생해 멕시코 마진이 약 50bp 줄어들고 있으며, 이는 연결 기준 약 25bp 수준입니다.
• 경쟁 압박: 경영진은 페루의 다른 대학들도 온라인 포트폴리오를 확장하고 있다고 인정하면서도, 로리엣(Laureate)의 브랜드, 폭넓은 상품 체계 및 학생 경험상의 강점을 강조했습니다.
• 엘니뇨: 2026년 11월에서 2027년 2월 사이에 정점에 달할 것으로 예상됩니다. 경영진은 혼합형 및 온라인 수업 방식을 통해 페루에서의 잠재적 운영 차질을 일부 완화할 수 있을 것이라고 밝혔습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 신규 캠퍼스가 현재 연결 마진을 약 25bp 정도 깎아먹고 있다고 설명했습니다. 이러한 투자 부담이 없다면 2026년 마진 확장 폭은 약 75bp 수준으로, 가이던스로 제시된 50bp 대비 높았을 것입니다. 향후 수년간 경영진은 연평균 30~50bp의 마진 확대를 지속적인 목표로 삼고 있습니다.

최고 6%였던 등록 학생 수 증가율이 연간 가이던스 상단인 5%로 둔화될 것으로 예상되는 것은 일반적인 4분기 이탈률을 반영한 것입니다. 경영진은 페루의 100% 온라인 학생 비중이 높아짐에 따라 이들의 이탈률이 더 높아 올해 영향이 더 클 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

이전 가이던스 대비 3분기 실적에 대해 경영진은 900만 달러의 매출 상방 서프라이즈가 전적으로 환율 효과에 기인했다고 밝혔습니다. 조정 EBITDA의 상방 서프라이즈는 환율 수혜와 비용 집행 시점의 영향이 거의 균등하게 반영되었습니다. 약 500만 달러 의 비용이 4분기로 이월될 것으로 예상된다.

경영진은 또한 푸에블라가 2026년에 개교하는 유일한 캠퍼스임을 확인했다. 아테와 몬테레이는 운영 2년 차에 진입했으며 지속적으로 안착하면서 자체 등록 학생 수 성장에 기여하고 있다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Hello, and welcome to Laureate Education Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Adam Morse. You may begin.

Adam Morse

Good morning and thank you for joining us on today's call to discuss Laureate Education's third quarter 2026 results. Joining me on the call today are Eilif Serck-Hanssen, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rick Buskirk, Chief Financial Officer.

Our earnings press release is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at laureate.net. We have also posted a supplementary presentation to the website, which we will be referring to during today's call. The call is being webcast and a complete recording will be available after the call.

I'd like to remind you that some of the information we are providing today, including, but not limited to, our financial and operational guidance constitutes forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable U.S. securities laws. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may change at any time, and therefore, our actual results may differ materially from those we expected. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations are disclosed in our annual report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, our 10-Q filed earlier this morning, as well as other filings made with the SEC.

In addition, all forward-looking statements are based on current expectations as of the date of this conference call, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Additionally, non-GAAP measures that we discuss, including and among others, adjusted EBITDA and its related margin, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share, total debt net of cash and equivalents and free cash flow are also detailed and reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in our press release or supplementary presentation.

Let me now turn the call over to Eilif.

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Thank you, Adam, and good morning, everyone. Today, we are pleased to report strong financial performance for the third quarter, along with the results of our current intake cycle. Third quarter revenue was $485 million and adjusted EBITDA was $147 million. Both metrics were ahead of the guidance we provided 3 months ago, aided by favorable foreign exchange rates.

In Mexico, the primary intake is largely completed with new enrollment growth of 8% versus comparable intake period last year, driven by a very successful launch of our new campus in Puebla as well as continued growth in existing campuses and online.

In Peru, we are seeing a 9% increase year-over-year in new enrollments during the secondary intake, which will be fully completed in November. Our Peru intake benefited from our leading fully online capabilities, which generated strong demand from working adult students. The strong results from our combined intake cycles confirm the 3 main growth levers in our business and that they are all working well.

These 3 growth drivers are: Number one, same-store growth enabled by rising participation rates and market share gains. And secondly, new campus expansions in new ZIP codes and new cities in Mexico and Peru. And thirdly, our rapidly scaling fully online portfolio for working adult learners.

Since the start of 2025, we have opened 3 new campuses, and we expect 2 additional campuses opening in 2027. Our Southern Lima campus remains on track to open in the first quarter, followed by our new Mexican campus in Merida, which is expected to open prior to the September 2027 main intake. Beyond these projects, we have a strong multi-year pipeline of attractive campus expansion opportunities across Mexico and Peru, and we have already secured multiple sites to support future growth and expect to accelerate our new campus openings in 2028. During our next earnings call, we will provide some additional details on the pipeline and its deployment cadence going forward.

Upon completion of this intake cycle, we have good visibility into the remainder of the year as well as the jump-off point for 2027. That gives us the confidence to reaffirm the full year guidance expectations and announce an additional $150 million increase to our stock repurchase program, reinforcing our disciplined capital allocation strategy and commitment to long-term shareholder value creation.

Let me now provide some color on the geopolitical and macro conditions in our markets. Mexico's economy continues to show signs of improvement during 2026. Second quarter GDP grew by 2.1% year-over-year, the strongest gain since 2024, supported by broad-based growth across industrial production, services, and agriculture. And importantly, foreign direct investment hit a record level for the first half of this year, highlighting the renewed confidence in Mexico's role as the preferred supply chain partner to the United States. While conditions are improving and in line with our expectations for the second half of 2026, overall economic growth in Mexico continues to be below its full potential. In the medium- to long-term, we remain confident that Mexico's deep integration with the U.S. economy will provide attractive structural growth opportunities for the Mexican economy.

In Peru, President Keiko Fujimori's election win provides greater clarity on economic policy, which now focuses on reducing red tape, increasing investments in core industries, and lifting the growth rate for the economy. Strong domestic demand, large investment into the mining sector, and elevated commodity prices further support Peru's momentum of GDP growth above 3%.

As for Peru's El Nino preparedness, the country has drawn lesson from previous events and is today better prepared than during past extreme weather occurrences. The government has improved their forecast capabilities and increased investments in storm and flood mitigation activities, including river dredging and drainage systems. Further, Laureate's ability to deliver high-quality hybrid and online learning should help to partly mitigate the potential disruption to our operations during the peak of the El Nino event forecasted to take place between November 2026 and February 2027.

In summary, Peru's solid fundamentals continue to support our bullish medium- and long-term growth outlook for the country.

That concludes my prepared remarks, and I'm now handing the call over to Rick for the financial overview for the quarter as well as more details on our outlook. Rick?

Richard Buskirk

Thank you, Eilif. Before I discuss our financial performance for the quarter, let me provide a few important reminders on seasonality. Campus-based higher education is a seasonal business. Although the third quarter is a large intake period, from a P&L perspective, it is seasonally low as classes are out of session for much of the quarter. In addition, the timing of the start of our classes can shift year-over-year depending on various factors such as when public universities begin classes or when holidays occur. This, in turn, affects the timing of enrollments and revenue recognition and quarter-over-quarter comparability.

In terms of seasonality for 2026, we have some intra-year calendar timing impacts as outlined on Slide 21 in our presentation. As I review our operating results, I will provide additional color on these timing-related impacts.

Let's start with Pages 10 and 11 of the supplementary presentation, which highlight our third quarter and year-to-date operating and financial performance. New and total enrollment volumes increased 8% and 6%, respectively, for the current intake cycle versus the comparable intake period in the prior year. Growth from new campuses contributed approximately 2% to our overall new enrollment growth and 1% to our total enrollment growth. Third quarter revenue was $485 million and adjusted EBITDA was $147 million. Strong new enrollment intakes in both markets drove favorable results for the quarter.

We also benefited from $29 million of foreign currency impact on revenue, reflecting a stronger Mexican peso and Peruvian sol during the period. On a constant currency basis and adjusted for the academic calendar shift discussed earlier, revenue for the seasonally low third quarter was up 6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA increased by 14%.

Third quarter net income was $101 million, resulting in earnings per share of $0.73 per share on a reported basis. Third quarter adjusted net income was $72 million and adjusted earnings per share was $0.52 per share, an increase of 100% as compared to Q3 of the previous year. Growth was aided by earnings momentum and favorable intra-year academic calendar timing.

Now turning to year-to-date performance. On a constant currency basis and adjusted for academic calendar timing, results for the first 9 months of 2026 were strong, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth of 7% and 9%, respectively, versus the prior year period.

Let me now provide some additional color on the performance of Mexico and Peru, starting with Page 13. Please note that all comparisons versus prior year are on a constant currency basis. Let's start with Mexico. Mexico's new enrollments for the primary intake grew 8% versus the prior year intake period with strong growth in face-to-face enrollments. As Eilif noted earlier, our new campus opening in Puebla is performing ahead of expectations and as a result, contributed approximately 3% to Mexico's year-over-year intake performance. Pricing for the intake was in line with our cost inflation for our traditional face-to-face and online programs. Total enrollments volume increased by 5% versus the comparable intake period in the prior year. Adjusted for timing of the academic calendar, Mexico's revenue for the third quarter grew 6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA increased 12%.

As discussed on prior calls, we expect Mexico's margin accretion in 2026 to be weighted towards the second half of this year. On a year-to-date basis and adjusted for timing of the academic calendar, Mexico's revenue grew 6%, resulting from a 4% increase in average total enrollments and price mix and adjusted EBITDA increased by 3%, reflecting the timing of investments and the ramp up of our new Puebla campus.

Let's now transition to Peru on Slide 14. Peru's secondary new enrollment intake grew 9% versus the prior year intake period, driven by fully online programs as we continue to leverage our leading digital capabilities to meet growing market demand for working adults. Our rapid growth in fully online is creating price mix impact on average revenue per student in Peru. We expect this impact to persist into next year. Total enrollments were up 5% versus the prior year intake period, supported by new enrollment growth and the expansion of our fully online programs.

Adjusted for timing of the academic calendar, Peru's revenue for the third quarter grew 6% year-over-year, driven by higher enrollment volumes and adjusted EBITDA increased by 15%. On a year-to-date basis and adjusted for timing of the academic calendar, Peru's revenue increased 7% versus the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was up 14% and was impacted by the timing of certain expenses, which are expected to normalize in the fourth quarter.

Let me now transition to our balance sheet. Our balance sheet remains strong. Laureate ended September with $204 million in gross debt and $190 million in cash for a net debt position of $14 million. Through September, we repurchased $256 million of common stock under our previously announced share repurchase program, including $75 million of repurchases in the third quarter. Today, we announced that our Board has authorized an additional $150 million increase to our share repurchase program. In total, as of September 30 and pro forma for this increased authorization, $225 million remains available under the upsized authorization. Upon completion of this full execution, we will have returned more than $3.5 billion of capital to shareholders since 2019 through a combination of share repurchases, cash distributions, and cash dividends.

Moving on to our outlook, starting on Page 18. As Eilif noted earlier, we recognized favorable foreign currency impact in our third quarter results versus expectations. Since that time, both the Mexican peso and Peruvian sol have weakened against the dollar, essentially giving back the FX upside from our third quarter. Despite the recent weakening of the currencies, we are pleased to reaffirm our full year guidance for 2026, which is as follows: Total enrollments to be in the range of 518,000 to 523,000 students, reflecting growth of 4% to 5% versus 2025. Revenues to be in the range of $1.92 billion to $1.93 billion, reflecting growth of 13% on an as-reported basis and growth of 6% to 7% on a constant currency basis versus 2025.

Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $593 million to $599 million, reflecting growth of 14% to 15% on an as-reported basis and 8% to 9% on a constant currency basis versus 2025. This would result in an increase in adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 50 basis points at the midpoint of guidance on a reported basis. For 2026, adjusted EBITDA to unlevered free cash flow conversion of approximately 50% on a reported basis, supporting our continued emphasis on return of capital to shareholders. Lastly, adjusted earnings per share guidance for 2026 is expected to be in the range of $2.04 to $2.10 per share, reflecting growth of 19% to 22% versus 2025 on a reported basis. This outlook assumes a weighted average share count of approximately 139 million shares.

Now moving to fourth quarter guidance, which includes an expected $20 million of unfavorable intra-year academic calendar timing as illustrated on Page 21 of our presentation. For the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect revenue to be in the range of $546 million to $556 million. And finally, adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $198 million to $204 million.

Eilif, I'm now handing it back to you for your closing comments.

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Thank you, Rick. The strong year-to-date performance through September reflects the strength of our business model and the resilience of our operations in Mexico and Peru. Our investments in academic innovations, AI capabilities, digital offerings and accretive campus expansions are all strengthening our competitive position. At the same time, our scaled operating model continues to drive margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation. We have an enviable position with the leading university brands, attractive growth opportunities, and a strong balance sheet. We believe these favorable attributes position us well to create long-term value for our shareholders while also expanding access to high-quality affordable education for students and learners in Mexico and Peru.

Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks, and we are now happy to take any questions from the participants.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

질의응답

Jeffrey Silber

You called out the -- I think it was a 3% impact on enrollment from the new campus in Puebla. Can you talk about the other 2 campuses you opened this year? Can you just remind us where they were, when they opened? And was there any impact from those other 2 campuses on the quarter as well?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Hello, Jeff, this is Eilif. Yes, Puebla performed very well and opened on time, on budget, and slightly ahead of our expectations. We have also opened a new campus in the east part of Lima, in a district called Ate. And we opened also a new campus in Monterrey, Mexico. Those campuses are now in the second year of operation. So there's just normal growth in new enrollment as the base -- 2025 baseline already had a cohort of new enrollment in it. So that's part of the organic growth. However, both campuses contribute nicely to the total of -- of total enrollment as the campuses takes 4 to 5 years to fill up.

Jeffrey Silber

I appreciate you clarifying that. And in terms of the fourth quarter guidance, when we compare it to your implied guidance beforehand, it was a little light. You called out a couple of things in the quarter, and I just hope you can parse that out. I think there was a timing difference in expenses in Peru and also changes in FX. Is it possible to kind of segment those 2 in terms of the impact on guidance?

Richard Buskirk

Yes, absolutely. The outperformance in Q3 was primarily driven by FX and a bit of, as you said, expense shifting in terms of adjusted EBITDA. But more specifically, the revenue outperformance of $9 million versus the high was entirely driven by FX favorability in the quarter versus guidance. And for adjusted EBITDA, it was about a near 50-50 combination of FX outperformance and operational expense timing shift. So that -- when you look at Q3, it was that. When you look at Q4, we're obviously looking at a much weakened peso relative to the dollar at where we sit as of last week and this week. So that we are not -- we are reaffirming full year guidance, but we are taking down Q4 as we're just flowing through the upside of FX that we had in Q3 to Q4.

Jeffrey Silber

So again, roughly a 50-50 impact in the fourth quarter as well?

Richard Buskirk

Revenue was all FX.

Jeffrey Silber

Revenue is all FX, okay. And then obviously, the expenses -- the adjusted EBITDA is impacted by the timing of expenses. I can follow up on this.

Richard Buskirk

The expenses will shift of around $5 million in -- probably in Q4.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Paris with Barrington Research.

Alexander Paris

Just to follow-up on the Q4 guide. Obviously, FX, you just kind of went through that, a negative impact in the fourth quarter versus prior guidance. A $20 million shift in revenue, which we knew about in the academic calendar. Does that shift into Q1, first of all?

Richard Buskirk

No, it's all intra-year. So it all will be going into Q4, and we've got that laid out for you in the earnings presentation. You can see it by quarter [indiscernible] around $16 million, $28 million shifted into Q3 in Mexico and one in Peru in Q3 and $16 million and $4 million shift out of Q4, and you see that on the earnings presentation on Page 21. [indiscernible] of next year.

Alexander Paris

And then if you take high and low of your full year guidance and the year-to-date through 9 months, there's a $10 million spread on revenues from high to low, a $6 million spread on adjusted EBITDA from high to low. What are the underlying assumptions for the low end and the high end basically?

Richard Buskirk

I think really at this point, we're sitting here in end of October. We just completed our intake. We have a very strong view of the operational performance of the business and feel very comfortable about that. The bigger impact that is between the spread of the high and low is FX. And if the current FX level hold versus the peso deteriorate versus the peso rebounds?

Alexander Paris

So if the current level holds, we're talking midpoint. If the current -- if FX improves for you, it's the high end. If it weakens, it's the low end.

Richard Buskirk

Approximately.

Alexander Paris

Okay. Good. That's helpful. And then on year-to-date new student enrollment for Laureate in general, it was up 9%. At June 30, it was up 10%. And if you look at it by market, it was really a decline in new student enrollment sequentially in Peru. Now I realize that's the secondary intake, but is there anything else to read into that?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

I mean we are very, very pleased with the new enrollment momentum this year. We have seen the Mexican economy improving, and we obviously -- we used to correlate it to the overall economy and including the offline [indiscernible] we are getting an uplift in execution and [indiscernible] is very, very strong. So getting 8% enrollment growth for the full cycle for Mexico, which is the main impact, I'm very, very pleased and encouraged by that, when you're looking [indiscernible] across all [indiscernible] across all modalities and I think the hybrid and online. And also [indiscernible] Mexico was, I think was the main intake is also heavily weighted to face-to-face young students. And that's traditionally the more economically sensitive population because of the adult students are more resilient [indiscernible] the main intake is February and March and continues to be very strong and [indiscernible] rotational basis and very strong [indiscernible] of the overall impact.

Alexander Paris

Great. Thank you. I appreciate the additional -- yes, the additional color is helpful. Thank you. And then just a point of clarification. In prepared comments, you talked about discussing the pipeline on the Q4 call. Are you referring to the new campus pipeline?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

[indiscernible] the pipeline of a few campus [indiscernible] campus opportunities that they have with a very significant amount of kind of the expansion opportunities across both of our markets. Of course, Mexico is a bigger country and has more opportunities both when you have the [indiscernible] and more specificity on that in the fourth quarter results and 2027 guidance. But you can expect, given the fact that we have secured more opportunities to secure our CapEx for the second half of 2026 has increased a little bit versus historical levels, and that is because securing [indiscernible] and expansion opportunities that will be coming online 18 to 24 months [indiscernible] campuses in 2027 and we will [indiscernible].

Alexander Paris

Great. I had a little trouble hearing you. But just to be clear, there were 2 new campuses opened up last year. There's Puebla this year. And then next year, there's 2 planned, 1 in each market. Is that still the current thinking for 2027?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

That's correct. And in 2028, we should be able to go a little faster given we have secured land plots for new locations during 2026, which will likely come online in 2028.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Marcelo Santos with JPMorgan.

Marcelo Santos

I have 2 on my side. The first is going back to the guidance. I think you were forecasting enrollment growth of around 4% to 5%, right, for the year. And you're growing faster than that now. What would this number of enrollments decelerate? What would make it decelerate into the fourth quarter? Like I just want to know if this is conservativeness or there's some specific effect that you are targeting there? And the second question would be more if you could discuss -- you already discussed this in previous quarters, but could you reiterate your views on margins outlook for the next coming years?

Unknown Executive

Yes. This is [indiscernible]. Good morning, Marcelo. First, as it relates to our guidance, the rate is 4% to 5% at the high end of the range, is short of range, the high end range is 5%. And the difference between the guidance and the 6% is simply a matter of that September 30 is peak enrollment. And we have intra-cycle attrition in the fourth quarter as we normally experience, that brings it down to an average at that high of 5%. Since we had a stronger mix of fully online, particularly in Peru that has a higher attrition, that's what's happening structurally. I'll pause there and see if that answers your first question.

Marcelo Santos

Every year, you have this effect, right, in the fourth quarter. So what you're saying is that this year, this attrition effect should be higher because of the mix in Peru. That would be the main reason why this year would be different than the previous year.

Richard Buskirk

That's correct. And as it relates to your second question, as you know and our investors know, we've done a tremendous focus on very aggressive margin expansion, particularly in Mexico over the last couple of years that led to over 500 basis points.

As Eilif and I have communicated, we have a commitment to continue to expand our margins in the next several years despite drag that we have from the new campus investments. And we've said that we expect to be able to expand margins on average around 30 to 50 basis points per year going forward. And really, what's happening there fundamentally is we're getting the benefit of the massive scale that Laureate has of 500,000 students and a very skilled back office where we get good flow-through on incremental revenue.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Samuel Alves with BTG Pactual.

Samuel Alves

First on Mexico's margins, just one follow-up. Could you guys quantify how much the new greenfield campuses are currently like diluting margins? Just trying to understand the potential of the margin upside as the campus mature. And second, on Peru, we have heard that the competition has become somewhat more aggressive there with some players like cutting prices, particularly in the fully online programs or versus the fully online programs. Have guys noticed like any change in the competitive environment or pricing dynamics there in Peru? That's it.

Richard Buskirk

Sure. I'll take the first question and then Eilif can take the second question. So on the first question as it relates to the impact of the new campuses, as we said in prior calls and in this one, the impact is around 50 basis points on margin in Mexico and about 25 basis points consolidated. So just as a reminder, we're saying that we're going to expand overall Laureate margins 50 basis points this year. It had not been for new campuses, we would have expanded 75. So at the end of the day, we're still expanding margins despite that. And essentially, what's happening is there's around a $5 million drag in new campuses because the campuses aren't open, particularly Puebla that just launched here in the third quarter, fourth quarter and the Merida, second campus we're going to launch next year. So we're paying rent on those and accelerating marketing investments on those. But obviously, we are looking forward to them as they continue to get cohorts into the door will be very accretive to us overall with it.

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Sam, can you hear me okay?

Samuel Alves

Yes, sure. The second one.

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Yes, the second was [indiscernible] difficult to hear, my microphone is working okay.

In terms of the competitive environment in Peru, clearly, people are looking towards the leadership position we have established in the fully online and, not surprisingly, people are -- all the universities are launching their online product portfolio. But the purchase behavior is really driven by the brand positioning, the product portfolio, the overall student experience and the price point. And our strategy has been to deliver a high-quality product at an affordable price. Right? That gives us a very, very significant competitive advantage, and that's really why we have been growing this market very, very rapidly. And we currently have over 40,000 fully online in Peru. So really, really robust growth for us in that segment. But yes, absolute [indiscernible].

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mauricio Cepeda with Morgan Stanley.

Mauricio Cepeda

Just so you know that the sound there in the room is not really clear. I think you seem to be a little far away from the mic. But anyhow, I'll make my -- we have also 2 questions from our side. So first is about expansion, right, so that we can project better. So this new campus in Merida, how does it compare to the ones that we already have in Monterrey, Puebla, and Mexico City in terms of capacity and CapEx? And what should be your standardized campus size and necessary CapEx? So will you continue to be focusing also on these lower-tier brands in both countries? So this is the first part. And the second part, a little bit more about how online is progressing. So just to have a kind of a reality check on how much of the Mexican intake growth has come from the face-to-face versus online?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

So in terms of the Merida campus, it is a smaller campus because the secondary [indiscernible]. It is a CapEx of somewhere in the mid to low 20s versus mid 40s for a capital city campus. It has about 6,000 students capacity versus a typical [indiscernible] for capital city campus. But it has a very similar IRR profile. The strength of our brands in the secondary cities gives us a very commanding preference, consumer preference and hence the market share will be opening up. And the market segmentation in the secondary cities are greater than those in capital cities. So there is a strong preference towards large nationally recognized brand as education is very important branded consumer product. I'll pause there to see if that answers your question on the Merida expansion economics. Can you hear me?

Mauricio Cepeda

Yes. I think about the online also, right?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Yes. So moving on to online. We view online to be very different, but complementary business. It leverages on the back of it. It leverages very strong brand portfolio. And of course, a lot of the infrastructure as well is shared with a hybrid portfolio in those markets. That gives us a massive competitive advantage and scale benefit. But the commercial [indiscernible] for online is [indiscernible] nontraditional students, students who are looking for a degree completion or getting a undergraduate degree in order to get promotion or shifting their career from a local company into international. So it's a very, very different consumer and the marketing and the communication and the attraction effort is very separate and distinct from that of [indiscernible] high school lever and hence marketing to what we call [indiscernible] 15 to 20 kilometer radius of all of 55 campuses [indiscernible].

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, I'm showing no further questions in the queue. That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.