크라운 캐슬(CCI) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 비용 절감으로 가이던스 상향

크라운 캐슬(NYSE: CCI)은 지속적인 자체 성장에 더해 추가적인 비용 절감, 2억 7,500만 달러 규모의 고객 계약 효과에 힘입어 2026년 전체 실적 전망을 상향 조정했습니다. 경영진은 핵심 임대 활동이 제시된 가이던스 범위의 하단 부근에서 마무리될 가능성이 높지만, 2026년이 자체 성장의 저점이 될 것이라는 기존 전망을 재확인했습니다.

핵심 요약

• 스프린트(Sprint) 해지 및 디시(DISH) 계약 종료를 제외한 3분기 자체 성장액은 3,500만 달러(3.5%)를 기록했습니다. 전년 동기 디시 관련 매출까지 제외하면 성장률은 3.8%였습니다.
• 크라운 캐슬은 2026년 전체 실적 전망에서 타워 임대 매출을 2,000만 달러, 조정 EBITDA를 2,500만 달러, AFFO(조정 운영자금)를 500만 달러 각각 상향했습니다.
• 회사는 일부 타워 자산에 대한 잔여 경제적 지분을 취득하고 주요 고객의 임대 기간을 연장하며 장기 고객 이탈을 제한하기 위해 2억 7,500만 달러를 지급했습니다.
• 크라운 캐슬은 2026년에 2025년 전체 실적의 두 배가 넘는 400건 이상의 토지 임대권을 매입할 것으로 예상합니다. 재량적 자본 지출 가이던스는 4,000만 달러 증액된 2억 4,000만 달러로 상향되었습니다.
• 경영진은 운영 효율화, 시스템 현대화, 토지 임대권 매입에 힘입어 2026년 대비 2030년까지 200bp 이상의 마진 확장이 이루어질 것이라는 전망을 유지했습니다.
• 100개 이상의 엣지 컴퓨팅 사이트가 구축되었으나, 경영진은 수익성 있게 규모를 확장할 수 있을지 판단할 때까지는 해당 기회가 시험 단계에 머물러 있다고 밝혔습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

크라운 캐슬은 타워 중심의 사업 모델에 맞춰 비용 구조를 조정한 결과, 연환산 기준 6,500만 달러의 영업비용 절감을 달성했습니다. 지난 2월 2026년 첫 실적 전망이 발표된 이후, 매출 증가 및 서비스 기여도 감소분을 제외하더라도 연환산 비용 절감 효과에 힘입어 연간 조정 EBITDA 가이던스가 2,000만 달러 상향되었습니다.

회사는 프로젝트 관리 및 현장 서비스 시스템을 현대화하고 시설 거점을 최적화하며 본사 비인건비 비용을 줄이고 있습니다. 또한 광통신 및 스몰셀 사업 매각과 관련된 경과 조치 서비스 계약(TSA)도 종료할 예정이며, 경영진은 이를 통해 본사 기능이 한층 더 단순화될 것으로 보고 있습니다.

토지 임대권 매입은 핵심적인 효율화 추진 과제로 남아 있습니다. 크라운 캐슬은 2026년에 400건 이상의 토지 임대권을 매입할 계획입니다. 경영진은 타워 하부 부지의 소유 비율을 높임으로써 마진을 개선하고 운영 통제력을 강화하며 더욱 신속한 고객 서비스를 지원할 수 있을 것으로 설명했습니다.

2억 7,500만 달러 규모의 이번 고객 계약으로 4분기 타워 임대 청구액은 약 400만 달러(연간 1,600만 달러) 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다. 또한 4분기 선급 임대료 상각액은 200만 달러(연간 800만 달러) 줄어들 전망입니다. 경영진은 선급 임대료 상각을 제외하고 연간 약 400만 달러의 AFFO 증가 효과와 4분기 중 2,000만 달러의 추가 정액 기준 매출이 발생할 것으로 기대하고 있습니다.

크라운 캐슬은 2026년 초 극소수에 불과했던 엣지 사이트를 현재 100개 이상 구축했습니다. 회사는 다양한 상태의 기존 구조물이나 쉘터 약 5,000개를 확보했으며, 이 중 다수는 고객을 신속하게 수용할 수 있는 상태입니다. 현재 목표로 하는 구축 용량은 일반적으로 0.2~0.5메가와트(MW) 수준입니다.

25개 사이트를 검토한 결과, 크라운 캐슬의 자본 투입을 최소화하면서 약 9~11개월 이내에 총 100메가와트 규모의 전력을 확보할 가능성이 확인되었습니다. 다만 경영진은 엣지 컴퓨팅이 여전히 초기 단계의 기회라는 점을 강조했습니다.

경영진 가이던스

크라운 캐슬은 2026년 실적 전망치를 타워 임대 매출 2,000만 달러, 조정 EBITDA 2,500만 달러, AFFO 500만 달러 상향 조정했습니다. 이러한 조정에는 계약 기간 연장에 따른 2,000만 달러의 추가 정액 기준 매출과 500만 달러의 타워 임대 운영비 절감이 반영되어 있습니다.

스프린트 해지 및 디시 계약 종료를 제외한 연간 자체 성장액은 기존과 동일한 1억 3,500만 달러(3.4%)로 전망됩니다. 전년 동기 디시 매출을 제외할 경우 중간값 기준 성장률은 3.6%로 상승합니다.

경영진은 2026년이 자체 성장의 저점이 될 것이라는 전망을 유지하고 있습니다. 장기적인 성장 동력으로는 기존 마스터 임대 계약, 최근의 주파수 거래, 위성 분야의 지상망 구축 가능성, 향후 주파수 경매, 모바일 데이터 수요 증가 등을 꼽았습니다. 다만 2027년에 대한 구체적인 가이던스는 제시하지 않았습니다.

또한 크라운 캐슬은 2026년 하반기부터 2027년 상반기까지 중간값 기준 21억 달러의 AFFO를 창출하는 목표를 순조롭게 달성하고 있습니다. 경영진은 2026년 대비 2030년까지 200bp 이상의 마진 확장을 이뤄낸다는 목표를 지속 추진하고 있습니다.

리스크 및 주시 항목

• 핵심 임대 매출은 일부 기회의 구체화 시점이 기존 예상보다 지연됨에 따라 6,000만~7,000만 달러 범위의 하단 부근에 그칠 것으로 예상됩니다. 경영진은 이를 수요 궤적의 변화라기보다는 단순 시점 이연으로 설명했습니다.
• AT&T의 600MHz 대역 구축은 네트워크 설계, 엔지니어링 및 장비 공급업체 선정이 계속 진행됨에 따라 크라운 캐슬이 당초 예상했던 것보다 더디게 진행되고 있습니다.
• 스페이스X(SpaceX)의 지상망 구축 시 규모, 시기, 네트워크 아키텍처는 여전히 불확실합니다. 크라운 캐슬은 스페이스X가 기존 타워를 활용할지, 아니면 보다 밀도 높은 마이크로셀 네트워크를 구축할지에 따라 구축 속도가 크게 좌우될 것이라고 언급했습니다.
• 전체 사업 대비 엣지 컴퓨팅 매출은 아직 작은 수준이며, 경영진은 수백~수천 개 사이트로의 구축 확장이 수익성을 담보하며 이뤄질 수 있는지 여부를 계속 평가하고 있습니다.
• 디시 관련 파산 절차는 법원의 중재 명령으로 일시 중단되었습니다. 경영진은 구체적인 진행 상황에 대한 updates는 없으며 중재 절차가 11월 초까지 이어질 것이라고 전달했습니다.
• 간섭 우려 고려 사항을 포함해 상위 C-밴드 대역의 주파수 정리 및 구축 시기는 여전히 불확실합니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

스페이스X 및 800MHz: 경영진은 디시(DISH)의 일부 장비가 크라운 캐슬 사이트에 여전히 남아 있음을 확인했습니다. 디시는 1만 2,000개 이상의 크라운 캐슬 위치에 장비를 설치했으며, 이전에 이를 2만 개까지 확장할 수 있는 권한을 보유하고 있었습니다. 크라운 캐슬은 스페이스X가 기존 인프라를 통해 지상 커버리지를 추진할 경우 약 4만 개에 달하는 자사의 사이트 포트폴리오가 시장 진입 속도를 높이는 더 빠른 경로를 제공할 수 있다고 설명했습니다.

AI 주도 네트워크 수요: 경영진은 AI 애플리케이션으로 인한 데이터 업로드 증가에 따라 통신사 네트워크 트래픽이 시간이 지남에 따라 기존 다운링크 90%, 업링크 10% 비율에서 보다 균형 잡힌 구조로 이동할 수 있다고 말했습니다. 이는 장비 업그레이드, 추가적인 타워용 광통신 및 더 많은 엣지 컴퓨팅·저장 용량을 요구할 수 있습니다.

600MHz 구축: 경영진은 해당 주파수가 실내, 교외 및 농어촌 커버리지에 매우 가치가 높다고 평가했습니다. 당초 예상보다 도입이 더디게 시작되었지만, 고객사가 네트워크 설계 및 장비 선정을 마치면 신속한 구축을 추진할 것으로 기대하고 있습니다.

고객 계약 및 고객 이탈률: 이번 거래는 기존 타워 포트폴리오 계약을 연장하고 대상 사이트의 장기 고객 이탈을 제한합니다. 경영진은 긍정적인 거래이지만 크라운 캐슬의 장기 정상 범위 이탈률(50~100bp) 기준을 바꿀 만큼 규모가 크지는 않다고 설명했습니다.

서비스 활동: 회사는 3분기 부진 이후 4분기에는 서비스 활동이 개선될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 경영진은 해당 사업 영역이 본질적으로 분기별 변동성이 크며, 600MHz 관련 활동 지연이 가장 결정적인 요인이었다고 밝혔습니다.

실적 발표 전화회의 전체 녹취록

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2026 Crown Castle Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Hamilton West, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Hamilton West

Thank you, Chuck, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our third quarter 2026 results. With me on the call this afternoon are Chris Hillabrant, Crown Castle's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sunit Patel, Crown Castle's Chief Financial Officer. To aid the discussion, we have posted supplemental materials in the Investors section of our website at crowncastle.com that will be referenced throughout the call.

This conference call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and actual results may vary materially from those expected. Information about potential factors which could affect our results is available in the press release and the Risk Factors sections of the company's SEC filings. Our statements are made as of today, October 21, 2026, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, today's call includes questions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures are available in the supplemental information package in the Investors section of the company's website at crowncastle.com.

With that, let me turn the call over to Chris.

Christian Hillabrant

Thank you, Hamilton, and good afternoon, everyone. As I reflect on my first year at Crown Castle as CEO, I am pleased with the meaningful progress we have made to sharpen our strategic focus, simplify the business and build a strong foundation for future growth. Over the past year, we have taken several significant steps towards becoming the best-in-class U.S. tower operator in addition to completing the sale of our small cell and fiber businesses. .

First, at the beginning of the year, we took decisive actions to align our cost structure with the current business model, while preserving our ability to support customers, deliver best-in-class efficiency and enable future growth. These actions resulted in $65 million of annualized run rate operating cost savings. Second, we launched an enterprise-wide transformation program to create a more efficient and scalable operating model that supports our long-term growth objectives.

Our transformation program spans the entire business and includes initiatives such as modernizing our systems, optimizing our facilities footprint and reducing corporate nonlabor goals. This year, we launched a new project management system, improving the application to air process and a new field services system, enhancing our asset information and utilization data. We are also on track to exit our transition services agreement related to the previous sale of our fiber and small cell businesses, which we believe will allow us to further simplify our corporate functions.

Third, we continue to scale our ground lease buyout program while meeting or exceeding our target returns. In 2026, we expect to purchase more than 400 ground leases more than double the number completed in 2025. We believe acquiring land under our towers improves our margin and increases operational control of our assets. allowing us to deliver more value to the customer by meeting their needs more rapidly.

Finally, we are also making progress strengthening our customer relationships and driving customer engagement. We resolved a long-standing commercial issue in the quarter with one of our largest customers that advances our strategic relationship and positions us for future growth opportunities. We acquired a residual economic interest on a subset of our tower sites and extended the customers' lease terms for those sites. We believe this agreement creates value for both parties by simplifying economics increasing predictability and limiting long-term churn risk.

We believe this progress positions Crown Castle to capitalize on an increasingly supportive long-term backdrop for wireless communications infrastructure. Mobile data demand, one of the clearest indicators of demand for our infrastructure continues to grow at a healthy pace and is showing no signs of stopping with the emergence of AI-enabled applications physical AI and the acceleration of data-only wireless devices. We are also seeing continued investment in spectrum by our customers and others in the wireless industry.

Over the past year, carriers and other wireless offers have committed significant capital to acquire spectrum assets, including AT&T's acquisition of 3.45 gigahertz and 600 megahertz spectrum. Verizon's acquisition of AWS-3 licenses and SpaceX's acquisition of AWS-4, H Block, and 800 megahertz spectrum. These transactions demonstrate the commitments of the wireless industry to aggressively invest and to secure spectrum resources needed to support future terrestrial wireless network growth.

Notably, as part of its 800 megahertz spectrum acquisition, SpaceX said it aims to "become the first network operator to deploy both satellite and terrestrial spectrum." We believe SpaceX's mobile network ambitions could provide an additional list in two ways: First, to invest directly by leasing towers to build their previously announced terrestrial network. And second, as a catalyst for network operators to achieve investment in their mobile networks to enhance performance and coverage against new entrants in the wireless marketplace.

Looking ahead, we expect the FCC to auction approximately 800 megahertz of spectrum, consistent with Chairman Car's efforts to advance spectrum policy and maintain U.S. leadership in telecommunications. This includes approximately 160 megahertz of upper C-band spectrum expected to be auctioned by July 2027. Historically, new spectrum deployment has been an important driver of network investment, and we believe the industry spectrum pipeline remains supportive of long-term infrastructure demand.

We continue to see momentum in edge compute infrastructure as demand for storage and compute continues to accelerate while many large data center deployments face multiyear construction and power delivery delays. Crown Castle now has 100-plus edge sites deployed in several concurrent trials underway. While initial results appear promising, we continue to evaluate whether these edge solutions will scale.

Crown Castle is positioned well to serve this demand in a capital-efficient manner through its nationwide network of tower sites, each with existing power and our band connectivity and can provide select distributed move-in ready locations. Our talented and dedicated teammates continue to play a critical role in our progress transforming the business, and we are seeing rising levels of engagement with our clear and focused strategy.

We are committed to investing in their continued development through additional training, individual development plans and training in the cost-effective use of AI. In conclusion, over the past year, we have taken decisive steps to simplify the business, strengthen our operating model and build the right leadership team. This progress allowed us to increase our full year 2026 guidance and positions us to capitalize on the sector tailwinds and opportunities.

We believe our pure-play U.S. tower strategy, investment-grade balance sheet and capital allocation framework positions Crown Castle to maximize long-term shareholder value. With that, I'll turn it over to Sunit to walk us through the details of the quarter.

Sunit Patel

Thank you, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. We continue to execute on our strategy towards becoming a best-in-class U.S. tower offer in the third quarter. positioning us to increase our full year 2026 guidance. Starting on Page 3. Third quarter organic growth, excluding the impact of sprint cancellations and dish terminations was 3.5% or $35 million. Third quarter organic growth increases to 3.8% if DISH revenues are excluded from prior year segmental billings. This growth was more than offset at site rental revenues by $5 million of Sprint cancellations, $61 million of dish terminations and a $17 million decrease in noncash straight-line revenues and amortization of prepaid rent.

Third quarter services margin was $15 million, which we expect to increase in the fourth quarter. Turning to Page 4. We are increasing our full year 2026 outlook by $20 million for site rental revenues, $25 million for adjusted EBITDA and $5 million for AFFO to reflect first $20 million increase in straight-line revenues related to contractual term extensions as a result of the agreement Chris highlighted earlier; and second, a $5 million decrease in site rental cost of operations as we continue to drive efficiencies and increase our ground lease buyout activity.

Excluding the impacts of the transaction, Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA and AFFO are each increasing $5 million. I would like to take a moment to further highlight our progress on driving cost savings. Since issuing our original full year 2026 guidance in February, if you set aside the increases to our revenue and the decrease from our services contribution, we have increased full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA by $20 million from run rate cost savings or approximately 50 basis point as a percent of our site rental revenues.

On top of this improvement, we still expect to expand margins by more than 200 basis points by 2030 relative to 2026. Turning to Page 5. Full year 2026 organic growth, excluding the impact of Sprint cancellations and dish terminations remains unchanged at $135 million or 3.4% of the point. Full year 2026 organic growth increases to 3.6% at the midpoint if dish revenues are excluded from prior year site rental billings. We continue to expect 2026 to mark the low point for organic growth.

Our full year 2026 organic growth outlook includes $60 million to $70 million in core leasing activity. And based on our current view of the leasing pipeline, we expect to finish the year towards the bottom end of the range. Now I'd like to provide additional detail on the customary agreement we completed in the third quarter. We paid $275 million to acquire a residual economic interest in a subset of towers originally acquired many years ago, extend the customer's lease term for those sites and limit long-term churn across this portion of our portfolio.

By acquiring the residual economic interest, we expect to increase site rental billings by nearly $4 million in the fourth quarter or $16 million on an annualized basis, and decreased amortization of prepaid rent by $2 million or $8 million on an annualized basis. We're not changing our full year 2026 guidance ranges for site rental billings, amortization of prepaid rent and interest expense as these fourth quarter impacts are captured within the existing ranges.

On an annualized basis, we expect the impact of the transaction to be approximately $4 million accretive to AFFO, excluding the impact of prepaid rent amortization. We expect the term extension will result in an additional $20 million of straight-line revenues in the fourth quarter. Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with 97% fixed rate debt with a weighted average maturity of 7 years and leverage at 6.5x and net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA.

Net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA decreases to 6.3x when including the impact from the incremental straight-line revenues related to the term extensions commencing in the fourth quarter. Lastly, we're increasing our outlook for discretionary CapEx by $40 million to $240 million to reflect the higher volume of ground lease buyouts we expect to complete in 2026. Discrinary CapEx, net of anticipated prepaid rent additions of $40 million at the midpoint is expected to be $200 million at the midpoint.

To wrap up, the actions we've taken this year to improve efficiency and strengthen the business, support our increased 2026 full year guidance. We also remain on track to deliver $2.1 billion of AFFO at the midpoint across the second half of 2026 and first half of 2027. We believe our investment-grade balance sheet disciplined capital allocation framework and focus on becoming a best-in-class U.S. tower operator positions us well to generate attractive long-term shareholder returns. With that, operator, I'd like to open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question for today will come from Rick Prentiss with Raymond James.

질의응답

Ric Prentiss

A couple of questions. First, as you know, we always say follow the spectrum really not the CapEx, and so 1 of the most interesting things, obviously, you've touched on it a little bit in the last couple of weeks was brain selling spectrum to SpaceX the 800 megahertz spectrum. So a couple of questions in regards to that. We've heard some to maybe all of the towers out there that DISH rented might already include radios and antennas or some equipment for the 800 megahertz frequency that SpaceX is buying. Can you help us again, is that something you understand that might actually already be on your towers?

Christian Hillabrant

Rick, the answer is there is some equipment that is on the site what specifically the radio types and bands are, I couldn't tell you off the top of my head, but that is correct that the equipment is up there from when DISH abandoned it.

Ric Prentiss

Okay. And obviously, it's also the old Nextel stuff. So our understanding is also it's still in the handsets for a lot of handsets that are out there. So that's also good have, but are you -- is it still like to you that is in the chipsets in a lot of the devices?

Christian Hillabrant

The 800 megahertz spectrum, again, I could comment specifically on what the carriers have out there. But obviously, I think more importantly, as you and I both know, 800 megahertz does solve one of the critical challenges for an eventual SpaceX deployment, which is you need low band to get into buildings, you need low band to be able to provide breadth of coverage. And so it's obviously a huge milestone in their acquisition of that spectrum. .

Ric Prentiss

Makes sense. Little confusing process, obviously, with the escrow set up at the FCC with EchoStar selling spectrum to AT&T. Can you update us as far as we've been hearing some chatter when we were in D.C. for the wireless history foundation tender a couple of weeks ago that the tower industry might be getting closer to figuring out who's going to get how much out of the escrow, and maybe an update on what are you hearing from MLAs with satellite companies? Any progress?

Christian Hillabrant

Okay. Well, let's handle the DISH 1 first. So here's a quick update. So the current proceedings in the bankruptcy court have been placed on pause. While the parties attempt to negotiate a settlement in a court order mediation. There's no specific update to report on the progress of that yet. But as we communicated, I think, on prior earnings calls, the fact that this has now moved into a bankruptcy process, will likely result in an accelerated time line compared to a traditional core proceeding. So that's -- I think that's a good news story and the parties will remain in this mediation through early November. And then sorry, your second question was just around...

Ric Prentiss

Update on any MLA progress from selling companies, whether it's Base, Amazon or anyone else? Just how are we doing there?

Christian Hillabrant

Yes. So I don't think I want to get into a customer specific detail, but you can assume that we're talking to all parties.

Ric Prentiss

Okay. And last 1 for me, a lot of all these interrelated questions. The equipment that was abandoned by DISH on the towers who -- if somebody wanted to buy that for pennies on the dollar or take ownership of that? What's the process? Would they come to you guys and different tower companies? Do they need to go to the bankruptcy court so they need to go to DISH. Like if somebody wanted to say, hey, there's some equipment up there that's interesting to me. What's that process look like? .

Christian Hillabrant

Yes. I think it's probably a question best left to the lawyers in terms of what that is. I mean from our perspective, dishes abandoned equipment, they walked away from it. We've given them every opportunity to claim that equipment and take it off our towers, which they have elected not to do and they've effectively abandoned it. But in terms of how that would work contractually, I think that would be something that'd have to refer out to the lawyers. .

Ric Prentiss

Yes. I guess Shakespeare wasn't right about first thing we do about the lawyers. But.

Christian Hillabrant

We love our lawyers, right? Thank you for the questions.

Operator

The next question will come from Brendan Lynch with Barclays.

Brendan Lynch

Available infrastructure is a company that I identified you as their vendor for deploying edge data centers. Can you elaborate on what you see as the potential growth for this relationship?

Christian Hillabrant

Yes. Let me start saying we're excited to partner with available infrastructure. As you know, they are building a nationwide network of edge new cloud data centers. And while edge data centers are not new to CCI, we look at this as an exciting niche space and look forward to seeing how it evolves over time. More broadly, I guess, an update on -- we've had this trial now for a number of months.

As you heard me announce earlier, we've now eclipsed 100 sites deployed. Part of what we're looking at is to learn from these trials and understand both the demand profile from potential customers, but also just gaining an inventory of what we actually have and what we can actually market to our customers. And as we've gone through this process, we've identified -- we have something like 5,000 existing structures or shelters that are already existing, that are out of our sights today in various levels of condition, but in many cases, able to take customers to move in right away.

We've been researching power, and I think you've heard us talk about before. The sweet spot for us is between, say, a 0.2 to 0.5 megawatt installation, utilizing the existing power on sites customers to be able to utilize it. Some customers have come back to us and have asked and inquired whether we would be able to bring additional power out to the sites. And just as a sampling, what we found across like 25 sites that we just recently completed. What we found out was across those 25 sites there would be an opportunity to bring up to 100 megawatts in aggregate across those 25 sites.

And this is power that could be delivered in approximately 9 to 11 months with very limited capital required from Crown. So I think from an optionality perspective, it opens up the possibility of providing even greater service to our customers. But again, until we've finalized on how we can scale this profitably, I would still characterize this as a trial phase where we're still learning a lot. And this is -- this update I'm providing with you now is indicative of what we're learning along the way and how this might emerge as a business opportunity over time.

Brendan Lynch

Great. That's helpful color. You've also suggested that you've hit an inflection point on organic growth. When we think about the cadence into 2027, can you break down where you anticipate an acceleration or deceleration between the components of core leasing to escalator as Sprint churn case and normal course churn? .

Christian Hillabrant

Yes. I just start by saying, we reiterate that we believe 2026 is the low point for organic growth in our business and across the industry. The reasons why we believe that are the following. One is the MLAs that we have in place that gives us visibility to that future contracted activity. We announced in this past quarter, we resolved this long-standing customer issue, which both strengthens our relationship and clears the path for future growth opportunities with the customer. the recent spectrum transactions, albeit somewhat delayed in the AT&T acquisition of 600 megahertz.

Verizon's acquisition of AWS-3 and now SpaceX with the 800 megahertz. These are all positive catalysts for towers. And then longer term, we've talked about the opportunity of 6G and the fact that the FCC and administration has made it a priority to earmark 800 megahertz of spectrum. And more importantly, stating 6G is a battle to be won and is a kind of a matter of life and depth for the country to win that battle versus others. And starting that spectrum acceleration auction in July 2027.

And then the edge infrastructure ecosystem that is now starting to emerge in a the underlying factor that mobile data demand continues to grow, and is even expected to double over the next 5 years and the powering of AI inference that's driving a much higher percentage of like traffic. All of these are activities of why we believe that 2026 is a low watermark for growth. But obviously, that has to be borne out into 2027 and beyond, but these are positive tailwinds for the industry and for Crown as we look towards our future growth, without me speaking specifically towards our 2017 guidance, which I'm not prepared to share today.

Sunit Patel

Yes. And keep in mind, now we've had some of the satellite players also declare the interest in a taste network. So I think that's a positive also. .

Operator

The next question will come from Michael Funk with Bank of America.

Michael Funk

So first, I'm going back to the 800 megahertz and SpaceX comments, if they were to deploy that nationwide, if you give some approximation for number of tower sites for a minimum level of service with 800 megahertz. And then your thoughts on the timing, the timing of a build of that scale, given any kind of labor constraints equipment purchasing, just maybe think about the framing for timing and tonal contribution to Crown Castle, if they do deploy the 800 megahertz. I have one more follow-up.

Christian Hillabrant

Yes, Michael, I think it's a tough question to answer because it really depends on the strategy in which SpaceX decides to go to market. If part of their goal is to move as quickly as possible across the terrestrial network, that would lead them towards maximizing the number of co-locations on existing towers and rooftops that exist today, and they have to accept the heights of what's available in the ad centers.

If on the other hand, they decided to go alone and to build thousands and millions and billions of microcells that might take quite a bit longer based on the scale of not only identifying the land available, but also the time, cost and effort of bringing backhaul to every site and power to every site. So that's a very good question. It really depends on what SpaceX decides to do in their network design.

I think what we would offer to them is the fact that we've got approximately 40,000 sites. In many cases, we do have prior installations that have already been through the zone and permitting process so that it could help them along with others in the industry of getting to market faster and getting that 800 megahertz deployed.

Sunit Patel

I mean 1 indication, it took DISH like 4 years. And as Chris pointed out, some of that is already up. So it'd probably be -- if they want it to, depending on the ambition. -- you could do it in a much more compressed time line depending on how many sites they want to get to, but they can move quickly if they want to. .

Michael Funk

Yes. So 2029 time line ballpark it for wireless service, utilizing dislike is obviously easiest line of sight to get there versus doing the micro cell strategy? .

Christian Hillabrant

This is the industry cheat code that exists in that is just built this network. I know the people that built that network, many of which were former colleagues at T-Mobile. They're very good smart deployment people. They move through very fast companies like Crown leaned in very aggressively to help them and staffed up in the services side to actually help enable that. So that does represent a huge time-to-market advantage if they go down that route. But in the end, it's going to depend on what route is speed of essence or some other model more appropriate for them.

I think you have to wait to hear from them. But I think on our side, we stand ready and available. And obviously, as one of the lead providers of tower space to dish, obviously, have the scale to really help accelerate that.

Michael Funk

One more, if I could. How are you thinking about the 600 megahertz contributing to leasing activity and timing, whether that's going to be a 4- or 5-year normal maintenance activity from AT&T or if you expect that will be new equipment, shorter duration for deployment?

Christian Hillabrant

I think if I'm being honest here, I think it's first, approval of 600 megahertz of the transaction, obviously, took additional time as they went through the FCC approval process. And now I think the customer is very much in the throes of doing the design engineering and selection of their OEM vendor, which would provide the equipment for them to put up. And so it's probably been a little bit slower of a rollout than we anticipated.

That said, 600 megahertz is the equivalent of beachfront property is the way that I described this. It's propagation is such that it helps to drive in building coverage in urban and suburban areas. It extends coverage in the rural areas. And the customer just paid $23 billion for the spectrum, it's highly valuable. I would think that they would look to deploy this as quickly as possible, given the value in the overall spectrum portfolio of what they've just acquired. And again, with the handset manufacturers having already these frequencies in for other customers. it's something that they can actually put to good views very, very quickly.

Operator

The next question will come from Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.

Nicholas Del Deo

First, Chris, you noted that you're supporting over 100 sites. What would that number have been a quarter or 2 or 3 ago. And what portion of that 100 are supporting GPU deployments versus other use cases?

Christian Hillabrant

Yes. Let me start with the second part. I can't tell you exactly what is in those -- that these have been build-outs that have continued to accelerate through the course of the year. Starting at the beginning of the year, I think we're effectively at 0 or very few sites. So we've been able to build that number in that period of time. Again, the key learnings for us has been understanding what the requirements are of edge data customers that is different than our traditional tower customers, and making sure that we're able to provide them with that timely basis information to help them accelerate their deployment.

And so it's been pretty much a steady build. I think it peaked. We peaked in the third quarter. It's built up steam. And again, the key for us is this something that's scalable so that we're not just talking like 100 sites, but we're talking hundreds or even thousands of sites over time is when it really starts to make sense for us as a new line of business.

Sunit Patel

Nick, it's small in the scheme of our overall revenues, but it's a good sign. And I would say compared to the beginning of the year, we are talking to more players. And I think just doing some more research on our sites and power availability and supply lines, as Chris was saying, we can -- it looks like on certain subsets of sites can provide a bigger power footprint, which I think gets more in the sweet spot of what edge needs are. But again, it's still early days and we'll have more to talk about this in subsequent quarters.

Nicholas Del Deo

That's good to hear. And then maybe one on the leasing outlook. You noted it's going to come in at the low end of the expected range probably a little bit of a change from prior comments that leasing would be back-end loaded. So is that driven by leasing getting pushed into 2027 for some reason? Or are you seeing a shift in the underlying trajectory or something else going on? Anything in general would be great.

Christian Hillabrant

Just more broadly, I think we're seeing interest from many different customers, including our traditional mobile network operator customers in these edge data center operators. In order to finish the year above the low end of the range that we guided to, we would have to see these opportunities materialize earlier than we currently anticipate. So it is -- it's more of a timing issue. .

Sunit Patel

Yes, it's more a shift. I would say the excitement around what people want to do is probably build up, but it's a timing shift as opposed to a trajectory shift. .

Operator

Next question will come from Cameron McVeigh with Morgan Stanley.

Cameron McVeigh

So Elon yesterday said that he expects AI agents to drive orders of magnitude of growth in bandwidth demand, and I'm curious as we think of the extent that AI agents are driving higher uplink traffic. How much can the carriers accommodate with their existing equipment and potential software upgrades. And then to that point, have you had conversations with customers looking to upgrade equipment related to higher uplink traffic so far?

Christian Hillabrant

Maybe to put this in context and share at a recent analyst conference where we sat with the three CTOs of the operators. And what they described was a very interesting and exciting future around AI and the impacts on the carrier networks, predominantly that it would take the current network profile of where, say, 90% of the total mobile traffic data load is on the downlink and only 10% is on the uplink that longer term, that would move closer to a 50-50 between the downlink and the uplink, meaning that you have people in the field ingesting data through video, through voice, through a text whereby they would be adjusting that data and uploading it in order to gain real-time information.

And the implications of that are twofold. One of which is, to your point, there's some re-architecting of the network, both in terms of capacity and then the configuration of how to balance that traffic load up and down. Two is, it starts to talk to latency and it does become a bigger issue. And as you think about the edge of data compute is something where, over time, as those applications evolve the need to have very fast response times lends itself towards the potential for future growth in the edge data centers. So those are the two implications that we've heard directly from customers in terms of the difference in the customer profile. The broader context of the data growth, again, the latest data that I saw published was a doubling of total load over the next 5 years. This was the CAGR that was implied.

Sunit Patel

Yes, I think it's going to be a big growth driver as he was pointing out, I think it also means that fiber infrastructure to towers, I think he also talked about the implications for a need for a lot more edge compute and storage. So these are all things that should be good drivers for our business. And to your point, it is -- I don't think it's just a software upgrade, if you just have raw growth in bits and it takes part of more bits, it might need upgrade of equipment to over time. .

Operator

Next question will come from Michael Rollins with Citi.

Michael Rollins

Two different topics, if I could. So first, going back to the customer dispute, can you provide just a little bit more background? You said it was long standing. What was me about that dispute versus the normal types of relationships that you have with your large carrier customers. And the payment that you made, is that related to the deferred purchase price associated with some of the carriers to leasebacks where there's a certain amount of money that gets deferred into the future. .

Or is there just -- I know you mentioned some of the benefit you expect to lease in dollars, but any other context that you can provide there would be super helpful. And then just separately, back to the topic of DISH. Can you share how many of your 40,000 locations did DISH get to with their infrastructure before they hit the stop button.

Christian Hillabrant

Yes. Let me start with the second 1 first. I think the easy answer on the DISH was they had 12,000-plus installed sites with the ability to go up to 20,000 over time as they develop their network. And then in terms of, again, not so much a dispute, but just more of a long-standing customer issue. This is -- I would characterize it as just part of the normal back and forth that tower companies and their customers have over time. But it was something that, by resolving it opens up the door for additional growth, that was the key for us as a catalyst in getting this sorted.

Sunit Patel

Yes. So a couple of additional things. You asked if we were purchasing futures, this wasn't that at all. This is more to do with the fact that this residual economic interest is that we're getting benefits from some of the revenues. So this just was a simplification. There was a win-win for both of us. I think for them, it simplifies things for them on their side. For us, it was an accretive transaction for us. if you look at it on a multiple basis. And also, it came with a term extension and an agreement to limit churn on a longer-term basis. So I would say, if you look at it in terms of -- from a balance sheet perspective, yes, it's $275 million, of which $158 million we put on other intangible assets and then the other $118 million in just other current activities, but that's the value of the contractual term extension and limiting the churn. So that's what it was. It didn't really have anything to do with any purchase options or anything like that.

Michael Rollins

I appreciate all that detail. And if I could just follow up with one other then on that. So given what you described on the churn side, does this make the case stronger that annual churn ex the Sprint decommissioning side of it could stay below 1% per year?

Christian Hillabrant

Yes. I mean, so as you know, we said our churn is 50 to 100 basis points, 50, probably call it. But -- so it impacts churn. But as I said, it's for a small -- a subset of the towers, so not big enough to kind of impact our guide -- long-term guidance we've talked about with respect to churn, basically beneficial.

Operator

Your next question will come from Mike Ng with Goldman Sachs.

Michael Ng

I just have 2. First, I was just wondering if you could comment on some of the lower network services activity in the quarter and if you expect that to kind of return back to more of a normal cadence after this quarter.

Christian Hillabrant

Service Yes. I mean, look, if you look at our guidance for the service business this year, it's $85 million. So if you look at what we reported in the third quarter, that implies we'll see a nice pickup in the fourth quarter, a nice increase in the fourth quarter. So yes, it returns to more of a normal cadence, probably not at the levels we might have guided to, but yes, in that close enough in that vicinity, at least in the fourth quarter.

Michael Ng

Great. And I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the operational efficiencies in the quarter and some of the kind of key drivers of the 200 bps of margin expansion over the next few years. Any change in terms of key things that could help you there?

Christian Hillabrant

Yes. I mean, so Chris talked about a couple of systems implementations we've done. We've got more of those coming up next year and the year after that. And then we also talked about exiting our transition services agreement that will lead to further simplification in future periods. So I think we've been consistent about saying our margin will improve 200-plus basis points between here and 2030. But the fact is we are -- we made more progress on that on this year and still sticking to that guidance, which I think should say on the margin, we are doing better than what we had indicated at the beginning of the year.

Sunit Patel

Well, particularly the GLBO as a driver of our business, we identified at the start of the year that we had a gap to what our key competitors had in terms of owning land underneath our towers and embarked on a strategic program to accelerate those activities, which we effectively doubled, more than doubled year-over-year and continues to be a large driver of the efficiency and cost savings that we're investing in today.

Operator

Your next question will come from Matt Niknam with Truist.

Matthew Niknam

I'll keep it at 2 as well, but I'll keep them simple. First, on services. I know you had maybe alluded to the expected downtick that we actually ended up seeing in the third quarter. Is there any indication of broader softer leasing from carriers ahead of next year's upper C-band auctions? And then secondly, on the edge data centers, can you speak to whether there's a general type or size of customer you're speaking to for these trials? And if there are any sort of specific use cases they're typically trying to solve for?

Christian Hillabrant

Yes. I mean, in terms of the services, you heard me refer earlier to the fact of that 600 megahertz have been pushed out. And so this was something that when we led in the guide to would have an uptick in 4Q is now that the transaction has been completed and applications are starting to flow is that is the largest individual component from a services perspective. In terms of the edge data centers, again, the traditional installation has been in a sub-1 megawatt in a 0.2 to 0.5. It's providing edge data compute at the cell site in the existing structures that we have, supporting use cases of kind of both a combination of capacity supply in a high-demand data center environment, combined with folks that need the low latency that's provided by the fact of our cell sites being as close to the edge as they are. Those are the primary installation types that we're seeing in that space.

Sunit Patel

Yes. And a couple of things. I mean, remember, I think we've said that the service business has always been lumpy for us in any given quarter. We've talked about that in the past. From a long-term trend perspective, and I think we talked about this earlier, we've seen a time shift, but the interest level in general continues to be pretty strong and active and maybe helped by the change in the competitive environment a little.

Operator

The next question will come from David Barden with New Street.

David Barden

I guess the first, if I could, would be the language around what SpaceX seems to be trying to do seems to be very prospective. Like it's going to maybe probably eventually someday build a network. Your services business has been very much about planning and permitting and those sorts of things. Usually, when companies are planning on building something they kind of come to you guys first and then they buy the spectrum, they don't buy the spectrum first and then figure out how to use it later.

Could you guys weigh in on that a little bit on how you really think what's actually happening there? And then the second question, if I could, please, would be -- regarding the upper C-band auction, we all know the auction is going to happen next year, but that the deployment is going to be delayed because of the potential interference with the FAA optimeter issues.

So when do you think that, that would actually begin. It's probably not going to begin at the last minute in 2030, 2031. It's probably going to begin sooner rather than later. So if you could give us a sense as to the conversations you're having on that topic, it would be hugely helpful.

Christian Hillabrant

Sure. Thanks for the question. So let's start with the SpaceX and I think you raised a great point. For those of us that have spent their careers designing, building operating networks, which I spent more than half of my career doing for Verizon predecessor in T-Mobile is you realize how complex these things are, how long it takes. And what I think Crown brings to the table is a strong pedigree of experience in helping customers get on air quickly from the time an application comes in to the time that we give them an NTP to get up on air. .

And so if SpaceX as serious as it sounds like they are in building a terrestrial network, I think we are a great partner for them in being able to help take a concept and turning it into reality of how to navigate through building a terrestrial network, which is, again, very, very different, obviously, than billing a satellite network as we'd be the first to admit.

So that's something that we believe we can add value to. And again, based on our portfolio and the fact of the partnership that we had with initially, that we have the majority of our sites in top 100 markets where the vast majority of POPs are located. This is something that we can help to solve for, I think, in a significant way. And so we stand ready when and if that time comes. Then more broadly on your comments on the upper C band. Yes. So there's always been this issue where spectrum goes to market an auction. It takes the time that it takes to do an auction, then the aftermath of that is the spectrum clearing before it can be put into use.

What I think I've shared in the past is where there's a will, there's a way. And so if you think back to when the original C-band spectrum was being put into place and there was issues with potential adjacent channel interference with the ultimates is that the industry found a way to work around that and to accelerate those activities. And so I don't know if you can put exact date on when it is. There's typically a deadline by which the FCC sets for having the spectrum clear, but oftentimes, that's not the actual data the spectrum is cleared and put into service.

So I believe it's 1 of these things where stay tuned to the space, but I would not anticipate that it takes that long. There is a desperate need to put additional spectrum to work based on the data growth that we've talked about before. And therefore, again, where there's a will, there's a way to find a way to clear it and get it up on towers as quickly as possible.

Michael Rollins

I really appreciate those comments. And I just want to be crystal clear that when you say that you stand ready to be a partner, the reality is that that SpaceX really hasn't reached out to do anything and that we're just kind of waiting to find out what the plan is. Is that what you're saying?

Christian Hillabrant

What I say -- I'll just reiterate what I said earlier, which is we won't discuss individual customer discussions, and you can assume that we're talking to all of them. .

Operator

And the last question for the day will come from Batya Levi with UBS.

Batya Levi

Just wanted to get back to the discussion about the dispute you had with the customer. Is there any reserve that we need to factor in as a reversal as we forecast ahead maybe a cash component that you are expecting to receive? And is this an extension of an existing portfolio option of a new lease from the key customer and any color in terms of how long that lease is and if it has a normal escalator would be helpful.

Sunit Patel

It's an extension of an existing portfolio. There are no reserves or anything in the future. I think it's sort of like what I described it. We are paying $275 million to acquire a residual economic interest on the revenue side. and that's what it is. But in addition to that, they extended the term of the contract for this particular set of towers, if you like, and agreed to limit churn on a longer-term basis. So I think those are the critical value components of this transaction.

Batya Levi

Is it a typical 5-year extension? With a 3% escalator? .

Sunit Patel

Specific extension, but yes. I mean you get some sense of it from the straight line revenue treatment, I can't give you more specifics on that, sorry.

Operator

And this will conclude our question-and-answer session as well as our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.