셀렉트쿼트(SLQT) 2026 회계연도 4분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 현금흐름 및 2027 회계연도 가이던스

셀렉트쿼트(NYSE: SLQT)는 연간 매출 증가, 4분기 조정 EBITDA 강세, 영업활동 현금흐름의 전년 대비 4,400만 달러 개선 속에 2026 회계연도를 마감했습니다. 메디케어 어드밴티지(Medicare Advantage) 보험사들이 혜택 및 수익성 목표를 지속적으로 조정함에 따라 경영진은 2027 회계연도에 매출 성장보다는 현금 창출과 부채 감축을 최우선 과제로 두고 있습니다.

핵심 요약

• 2026 회계연도 매출은 전년 대비 6% 증가한 16억 2,000만 달러를 기록했으며, 조정 EBITDA는 회사의 가이던스 범위인 9,000만 달러~1억 달러를 상회하는 1억 9,000만 달러를 달성했습니다.
• 4분기 매출은 전년 동기 3억 4,500만 달러에서 3억 2,200만 달러로 감소했으나, 조정 EBITDA는 300만 달러에서 1,200만 달러로 증가했습니다.
• 영업활동 현금흐름은 전년 대비 4,400만 달러 개선되었습니다. 경영진은 2027 회계연도 영업활동 현금흐름이 6,000만 달러 이상으로 약 두 배 증가하고, 잉여현금흐름은 약 5,000만 달러에 달할 것으로 예상합니다.
• 헬스케어 서비스가 셀렉트쿼트의 최대 매출 기여 부문이 되었습니다. 해당 부문 매출은 14% 증가한 8억 4,500만 달러를 기록했으며, 조정 EBITDA는 총 2,500만 달러를 기록해 연말 기준 연환산 약 5,000만 달러 수준에 도달했습니다.
• 경영진은 AI, 기술, 프로세스 변화, 조직 적정화 및 비용 통제를 통해 연환산 기준 3,000만 달러 이상의 비용 절감 방안을 확보했습니다.
• 셀렉트쿼트가 메디케어 어드밴티지 투자를 제한하고 인플레이션 감축법(IRA)의 연간 매출 영향을 흡수함에 따라 2027 회계연도 매출은 감소할 것으로 예상되지만, 연결 기준 마진은 가이던스 중간값 기준으로 확대될 것으로 전망됩니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 성과

헬스케어 서비스 및 셀렉트Rx

헬스케어 서비스가 영업적 변곡점에 도달하며 셀렉트쿼트의 최대 매출 사업 부문이 되었습니다. 셀렉트Rx는 4분기를 109,000명의 가입자로 마감했습니다. 경영진은 가입자 수 극대화보다는 서비스 혜택과 단위 경제성이 우수한 가입자를 우선시하고 있다고 밝혔습니다.

캔자스주 올라시의 물류 시설은 셀렉트쿼트의 기존 두 거점 대비 약 30% 높은 배송 효율을 창출하고 있습니다. 회사는 다음 연례 가입 기간 동안 신규 가입자 및 기존 회원의 비율이 이 시설을 통해 훨씬 더 높게 처리될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 또한 올라시 시설에서 얻은 운영 노하우를 다른 거점에도 적용할 계획입니다.

경영진은 헬스케어 서비스 부문의 장기 조정 EBITDA 마진이 10%대 초반에 달할 것으로 기대하고 있습니다. 단기적으로는 외부 가입자 유치에 대한 대규모 투자에 앞서 배송비 절감, 자사 약국 관리 시스템 사용 확대, 현금흐름 개선에 주력할 방침입니다.

시니어

시니어 부문은 메디케어 어드밴티지 시장의 변동성에도 불구하고 수익성을 유지했습니다. 주요 보험사 파트너의 전략적 마케팅 투자 변화로 인해 매출이 일부 감소했으나, 해당 부문은 26%의 조정 EBITDA 마진을 유지했습니다.

경영진은 메디케어 어드밴티지 보험사들이 3%~4%의 영업이익률을 지속적으로 목표로 하는 반면, 손해율은 과거 대비 높은 수준을 유지하고 있다고 밝혔습니다. 셀렉트쿼트는 플랜 해지 및 혜택 축소가 이어질 것으로 예상하고 있으나, 시장 개선의 초기 징후와 함께 2028 계획 연도에 보다 타겟팅된 성장 가능성도 포착하고 있습니다.

라이프

라이프 부문 매출은 8% 증가한 1억 8,600만 달러, 조정 EBITDA는 2,700만 달러를 기록했습니다. 최종 비용(Final-expense) 보험은 견조한 성과를 이어갔으나, 정기 생명보험 시장의 경쟁이 치열하고 고객 유치 비용에 대한 모니터링이 필요함에 따라 경영진은 신중한 태도를 유지하고 있습니다.

효율성 및 자본 구조

셀렉트쿼트는 AI 기반 가입 지원, 판매 보조 기술, 자동화된 매출 프로세스, AI 기반 품질 보증 시스템을 도입하고 있습니다. 이러한 이니셔티브는 확인된 연환산 3,000만 달러 이상의 비용 절감에 기여하고 있습니다.

회사는 총 자금 조달 비용이 약 12% 수준인 부채 및 우선주 합계 약 8억 달러를 보고했습니다. 우선주 배당금을 제외한 연간 현금 이자 비용은 약 4,500만 달러입니다. 경영진은 전체 자금 조달 비용이 100bp 줄어들 때마다 약 800만 달러의 비용이 절감되어 주주 가치로 귀속될 것으로 추정했습니다.

경영진 가이던스

헬스케어 서비스 가입자 수는 연례 가입 기간 이전인 1분기에 다시 완만해졌다가 2027 회계연도 말에는 2026 회계연도와 비슷한 수준을 나타낼 것으로 예상됩니다. 경영진은 상반기 매출 비교가 인플레이션 감축법(IRA)의 영향을 특히 크게 받을 것으로 예상합니다.

리스크 및 주요 관전 포인트

• 메디케어 어드밴티지 보험사의 전략, 플랜 설계 및 신규 모집 규모는 여전히 가변적이며, 추가적인 플랜 해지 및 혜택 축소 가능성이 있습니다.
• 셀렉트쿼트는 성장보다 수익성과 현금흐름을 우선시함에 따라 메디케어 어드밴티지 승인 건수가 감소할 것으로 예상합니다.
• 인플레이션 감축법(IRA)은 2027 회계연도 내내 헬스케어 서비스 매출에 압박을 가할 것이나, 경영진은 EBITDA에 미치는 영향이 이와 같이 실질적이지는 않을 것으로 보고 있습니다.
• 헬스케어 서비스 가입자 수는 메디케어 어드밴티지 증권 보유자 유입과 계속 연동되어 있어, 시니어 부문 투자가 조절됨에 따라 단기 성장이 제한될 것으로 보입니다.
• 정기 생명보험 경쟁과 고객 유치 비용은 라이프 부문 실적에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
• 셀렉트쿼트의 약 8억 달러 규모 부채 및 우선주 잔액은 높은 자금 조달 비용을 수반하므로, 부채 감축과 향후 리파이낸싱이 현금흐름 전략의 핵심입니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

경영진은 헬스케어 서비스가 메디케어 고객 대상 크로스셀링(교차 판매)을 넘어선 대규모 전체 잠재시장(TAM) 기회를 보유하고 있다고 밝혔습니다. 다만 2027 회계연도 노력은 마진 확대와 영업 효율성에 먼저 주력할 예정입니다. 개선된 단위 경제성은 향후 제3자 유치 채널 테스트를 지원할 수 있을 것입니다.

현금흐름과 관련해 경영진은 2027 회계연도에 예상되는 개선의 대부분이 단순히 시니어 부문 투자 축소 때문이 아니라, 헬스케어 서비스 마진 개선, 올라시 약국 운영, 신규 약국 관리 시스템 및 AI 기반 비용 절감 덕분이라고 설명했습니다.

셀렉트쿼트는 현재 10억 달러를 상회하는 미수 수수료 잔액이 이전 보험 판매분 회수가 신규 미수금으로 대체됨에 따라 2027 회계연도까지 비교적 변동 없이 유지될 것으로 예상합니다. 경영진은 영업활동 현금흐름 증대, 부채 상환, EBITDA 확대 및 향후 리파이낸싱을 레버리지와 자금 조달 비용을 낮출 수 있는 잠재적 경로로 보고 있습니다.

지원 인프라가 갖추어져 있어 미수채권 유동화는 여전히 이용 가능하지만, 경영진은 단기적으로 이를 활용할 가능성을 상대적으로 낮게 평가했습니다. 자본 배분의 우선순위는 부채 감축과 현금 창출력을 개선할 수 있는 투자입니다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Welcome to SelectQuote's fourth quarter 2026 earnings conference call. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to introduce Matt Gunter, SelectQuote Investor Relations. Mr. Gunter, you may begin the conference.

Matthew Gunter

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to SelectQuote's fiscal fourth quarter earnings call. Before we begin our call, I would like to mention that on our website we have provided a slide presentation to help guide our discussion. After today's call, a replay will also be available on our website. Joining me from the company, I have our Chief Executive Officer, Tim Danker, and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Clement. Following Tim and Ryan's comments today, we will have a question and answer session. As referenced on slide 2, during this call, we will be discussing non-GAAP financial measures.

The most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of the differences between the GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings release and investor presentation on our website. And finally, a reminder that certain statements made today may be forward-looking statements. These statements are made based upon management's current expectations and beliefs concerning future events impacting the company, and therefore involve a number of uncertainties and risks, including but not limited to those described in our earnings release, annual report on Form 10-K for the period ended June 30, 2026, and subsequent filings with the SEC. Therefore, the actual results of operations or financial condition of the company could differ materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Tim Danker. Tim?

Timothy Danker

Thank you, Matt, and thanks to everyone joining us this morning. Before we begin, I'd like to start with what we believe is the most important takeaway from today's call. SelectQuote's highest priority continues to be driving profitable cash flow, and our fiscal 2026 results demonstrate meaningful progress against that objective. As you'll hear throughout our remarks, we're managing the business with a focus on cash generation and leverage reduction, which we believe is the best way to create long-term shareholder value. We believe the platform we've built is capable of generating substantially more cash flow over time, and we are beginning to see that potential translate into tangible results.

Looking towards the future, we expect the Medicare Advantage industry to remain fluid as our carrier partners continue to right-size and get closer to their own operating margin targets. As a result, in fiscal '27, we will be prudent with our MA growth investments, while our primary focus will be to grow and compound our cash flow. Meanwhile, we reached an inflection point in fiscal 2026 with the healthcare services division becoming SelectQuote's largest revenue contributor. And we anticipate increasing cash flow and earnings power from that business in fiscal '27. Beyond fiscal '27, we firmly believe SelectQuote is well positioned to grow both our senior and healthcare services revenues, which will further accelerate cash flow generation.

Now moving to our recent performance. SelectQuote delivered a strong fourth quarter in what has been a highly successful fiscal year for our company. As you know, 2026 was another challenging year for Medicare Advantage as carriers shifted policy benefits and had widely varying origination volumes. In healthcare services, we successfully managed a shift in reimbursement rate from a SelectRx payer partner and changes in drug pricing from the Inflation Reduction Act. Through it all, we modestly grew revenue, maintained strong margins, and significantly increased operating cash flow. Looking ahead, our highest priority is to realize value for our shareholders, which, as I mentioned, is best achieved through cash flow. To be blunt, we see a wide disconnect in the value of our shares relative to the real cash flow generation of our platform. I'll end today's prepared remarks with more detail on that point, but I'll reiterate that we see fiscal 2027 as a real inflection point for compounding cash flow growth and the value of our equity.

Turning to slide 3, I want to frame fiscal 2026 around the key areas where SelectQuote made the most meaningful progress. First, in healthcare services, SelectRx continued to prove the earnings power of its scaled membership base, producing approximately $25 million of adjusted EBITDA for the year, while exiting at nearly $50 million annual run rate in the fourth quarter. This is an important milestone for a business we built essentially from scratch over the past several years. And we believe there's still meaningful room to grow profitably as we continue to drive operating leverage across the platform.

Our senior business remained highly profitable despite another dynamic Medicare Advantage environment. The business generated adjusted EBITDA margins of 26%, which we believe reflects the durability of our model, the strength of our carrier relationships, and the efficiency of our agent-led, technology-enabled distribution platform. And third, most importantly, we delivered more than $40 million of year-over-year improvement in operating cash flow. As I mentioned before, that cash flow progress is central to the story we're telling investors today. We have been very clear that our priority is not simply growth for growth's sake, but profitable growth that compounds into stronger cash generation, lower leverage, and ultimately greater equity value for shareholders.

I want to synthesize the point. It is important to remember that there is significant cash flow scale both in our $1 billion plus commissions receivable balance, which we grew in fiscal 2026, and our scaling healthcare services platform. As we increase operating efficiency and reduce costs, the equity accretion of compounding cash flow will be increasingly powerful. So when we look back on fiscal '26, we see a year where the model worked well and our teams executed yet again. We navigated industry complexity, delivered value for customers and partners, and took a meaningful step forward in translating the underlying earnings power of SelectQuote into visible cash flow.

Now let me turn to slide 4 and how SelectQuote is driving value and cash flow through our ongoing effort to maximize operating efficiency. Part of our fiscal 2027 planning process, we identified more than $30 million of annualized run rate expense improvement across the business. Importantly, these benefits are the result of a combination of actions, including AI and technology-enabled efficiencies, process improvements, organizational rightsizing, and prudent cost management. Today, I'd like to double-click on a few of the technology-enabled efficiencies we're capturing.

As you know, SelectQuote was founded with a clear view that technology and information are critical for operating efficiency and the value we deliver to our customers. Our investments in technology and data increasingly help us improve both efficiency and customer outcomes. We are deploying AI-enabled enrollment support tools that help us flex capacity with demand. This ensures we preserve valuable agent talk time and allow our highly trained live agents to do their most valuable work. We've also streamlined agent workflows through sales assist technology and we'll expand the use of AI-powered quality assurance tools to review and coach our agents. We're also automating revenue generation processes and leveraging internally developed technology to increase efficiency within both our senior and pharmacy businesses. These initiatives reduce manual work, improve scalability, and help generate meaningful cost savings while optimizing the high level of service our customers expect.

Additionally, as discussed on our 3Q call during fiscal 2026, we built, deployed, tested, and are now leveraging our new custom-built pharmacy management system. This system not only enables streamlined day-to-day pharmacy operations, but also provides the technical infrastructure we need to continue to process more scripts through our new state-of-the-art Olathe, Kansas facility. In this facility, we are already recognizing around 30% efficiency gains on shipments relative to our two legacy locations. This is yet another way we are meeting the market given that the U.S. healthcare system demands increasing efficiency. And you can see that with the improvement in our Kansas facility.

The challenge for most operators in our industry has been trying to balance speed and efficiency with services that fit the individual customer and drive value. There are some that do one or the other, but in our view, only SelectQuote succeeds at both. These initiatives build on a long history of incremental operational improvements across the company. While the over $30 million of savings reflects actions already taken or underway, we believe our technology platform positions us to capture incremental savings over the next several years as automation, data analytics, and workflow optimization become increasingly embedded across our operations.

We are seeing that technology is allowing us to further unlock the value of our core success you see in both our senior and healthcare services businesses begins and ends with real conversations between real people. We have a long track record of these conversations and earning the trust of America's seniors, who give us unmatched insights into their needs. We firmly believe our scale and, increasingly, our technology are exceptionally valuable assets that will continue to broaden our competitive advantage and allow us to meet the needs of America's seniors as they navigate the complex healthcare environment. These factors are not only allowing us to serve them better, but also powerfully contribute ongoing leverage to our cash flows. With that, let me turn the call to our CFO, Ryan Clement, to review our financials.

Ryan Clement

Thanks, Tim. I will begin on slide 5 with our consolidated financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026. As Tim mentioned, our results reflect strong execution across the business and continued progress against our goal of driving profitable cash flow. In the full year, revenue totaled $1.62 billion, up 6% year over year and within our guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA was $109 million, finishing well ahead of our guidance range of $90 million to $100 million. Most importantly, the business made substantial progress on operating cash flow, which we will touch on later.

In the fourth quarter, revenue was $322 million compared to $345 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $12 million compared to $3 million last year. That fourth quarter improvement reflects the operating discipline we have emphasized throughout the year, including actions to improve efficiency, manage costs, and focus resources behind the areas of the business with the clearest path to durable cash generation. The key message is that SelectQuote exited fiscal 2026 with a more efficient operating model and a clear path to expanding cash flow again in fiscal 2027. We remain focused on profitable growth, not simply top-line growth, and we are managing the business with that framework in mind.

Before I detail our segments, let me first call out SelectQuote's improvement in operating cash flow on slide 6. As Tim noted, we realized a $44 million year-over-year improvement, which was driven by progress within each of our divisions. In senior, we delivered strong operating results despite a challenging market backdrop. Similarly, in fiscal 2026, we generated more operating cash flow per SelectRx member than we ever have, driven by both operating scale from our Olathe, Kansas distribution facility, but also from a maturing member base. Lastly, our life insurance business, while smaller, delivered strong cash flows.

Turning to slide 7, our senior business remained highly profitable despite another dynamic Medicare Advantage environment. Senior revenue declined 4% compared to last year, totaling $576 million. In addition to another volatile season for Medicare Advantage, part of the reduction in revenue was tied to a change in a key carrier partner's strategic marketing investment. Despite this headwind, we were still able to drive very strong margins. In fact, the senior segment generated 26% adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year. As Tim noted, we have now recorded four consecutive years with senior margins in the mid-20% range, which demonstrates the durability of the business and the strength of our agent-led, technology-enabled distribution platform. The Medicare Advantage market continues to evolve, and we expect carrier strategies and benefit designs to remain important variables. As we've said in the past, growth in our senior business is a choice, and the engine we've built is ready when the markets support a return to responsible growth. While we've started to see green shoots of a turnaround within the MA market, our expectation is that this upcoming AEP will remain dynamic.

Moving to slide 8, the healthcare services segment continues to generate scaled revenue and is making meaningful progress on profitability. As previously forecasted, membership moderated in the fourth quarter to 109,000 as we continue to focus on members that receive the largest benefit from our services while producing the best unit economics. Looking ahead, we expect members to moderate again in the first quarter leading up to the AEP selling season, but to finish 2027 around 2026 levels. To be clear, demand remains very strong, but we continue to focus on driving further improvements in segment profitability. Additionally, it is important to remember that healthcare services membership growth is synergistic with Medicare Advantage policyholder onboarding. As Tim noted, improvements in that market should serve as a tailwind for SelectRx membership growth in future seasons.

While members remained flat year over year in fiscal 2026, total revenue in healthcare services totaled $845 million, up 14% compared to full year 2025. This growth was achieved despite the impact from the Inflation Reduction Act, which went into effect on January 1st of 2026 and hit the third quarter and fourth quarter of this year. I'll touch on the implications for 2027 during my guidance commentary. Moving to the bottom of the slide, the healthcare services business is scaling into a more profitable operating model, driven increasingly by further utilization of our Kansas distribution facility and our prescription management systems. The business delivered $25 million of adjusted EBITDA, effectively all of which converts to cash.

You'll recall that our first quarter and second quarter results were affected by the reimbursement renegotiation with one of our PBM partners, which we have called out here in the chart. Also, as a reminder, while the Inflation Reduction Act drives a material reduction in revenue, it does not materially reduce the impact to EBITDA given the geography of reimbursements to SelectRx on the P&L. The most important takeaway for this slide is that healthcare services exited fiscal 2026 at an annual EBITDA run rate of nearly $50 million. Although we expect EBITDA to moderate in the first quarter as we make investments in preparation for the AEP and OEP enrollment season, we feel that EBITDA performance reflects continued execution across the member base and the early contribution from efficiency initiatives across the pharmacy platform. We're particularly focused on continued efficiency gains in our Kansas SelectRx facility. As we increase utilization and continue to advance our pharmacy management system, we believe healthcare services can contribute even more meaningfully to profitability and cash flow over time.

Turning to life on slide 9, the business delivered $186 million of revenue, up 8% year over year. The business generated adjusted EBITDA of $27 million for the year, which we remind everyone is highly cash efficient. We are pleased with these results, but remain measured in our outlook. While our final expense business continues to perform nicely, the term life insurance market remains competitive and customer acquisition costs are worth monitoring. As a result, we continue to focus on disciplined execution and profitable growth, rather than assuming the strong trends we've seen recently will continue uninterrupted.

Lastly, let me conclude with our financial outlook for fiscal 2027. Starting with revenue, we are guiding to consolidated revenue of $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion in 2027, 14% below 2026 levels at the midpoint. This reduction is driven by factors in both senior and healthcare services. In senior, as we noted, we expect 2027 to be a transition year for Medicare Advantage carriers. As a result, we are being prudent with our investment with a greater focus on senior profitability and cash flow over growth. We expect this will result in MA approved policies declining 10% to 15% year over year. In healthcare services, we expect revenue to be down 10% to 15%, primarily due to the Inflation Reduction Act. The IRA will create year-over-year revenue headwinds throughout fiscal 2027, including particularly noisy comparisons in the first half of the year. To reiterate Tim's comment about the platform, SelectQuote is well positioned to grow both businesses in the future, but will purposely remain disciplined in 2027 to drive profit and cash flow.

Turning to adjusted EBITDA, we are guiding to a range of $90 million to $115 million for 2027. While down year over year on a dollar basis, the midpoint reflects consolidated margin expansion of about 60 basis points. We expect senior margins will be strong, coming down from 2026 levels but remain above our 20% target. This will be more than driven off by our expectations that healthcare services margins will approximately double in 2027. We expect the efficiency gains to be driven by continuing to scale our pharmacy management system in Kansas, as an increasingly higher percentage of our scripts are routed through this facility in 2027.

Finally, we are introducing an operating cash flow guide for the upcoming year. Despite the top-line pullback we discussed, we expect SelectQuote to approximately double operating cash flow in fiscal 2027 to $60 million plus. We also believe the business will generate free cash flow of around $50 million, which is aligned with our strategic priority to demonstrate meaningful and compounding value for shareholders. With that, let me turn the call over to Tim to drill down on that strategy before we take your questions. Tim?

Timothy Danker

Thanks, Ryan. We wanted to close with additional context on our most important strategic priority, cash flow. As I mentioned in my opening, we're pleased with the durability of returns we've built into our business. This is evidenced by our performance over the past four years. In senior, we have high conviction that our model can execute in a range of Medicare Advantage environments. In healthcare services, we're excited about the inflection occurring and expect our scale to drive significant profit contribution in 2027 and beyond. While we're pleased with the business performance, I'll reiterate that we're not satisfied with our valuation and want to be clear about our plan to drive shareholder returns.

We know our credit partners see the value of our platform and our current $1 billion plus commissions receivable balance. That said, we know equity investors want to see expanding cash flow creation and lower leverage. As we show here, we believe fiscal 2027 will be another strong year following the $44 million improvement made in fiscal 2026. As Ryan mentioned, we expect operating cash flow in 2027 to approximately double compared to fiscal '26 and for the business to generate free cash flow of around $50 million in the year ahead. What isn't shown here is how a growing base of operating and free cash flow can compound.

As you know, we continue to work to optimize our balance sheet and believe we are well positioned to reduce our funding costs more meaningfully in the future. Today, our debt and preferred equity total around $800 million at a cost of approximately 12%. We pay annual cash interest of approximately $45 million in addition to our preferred equity dividend. For illustration, every 100-basis-point decrease in that overall funding cost would equate to nearly $8 million of savings that accretes to equity holders. Similarly, we expect to reduce aggregate leverage in the future, both through debt repayment and expanding EBITDA.

The bottom line is, we see significant value in SelectQuote and believe there is a real and observable roadmap to grow our equity and generate attractive returns for shareholders. The North Star of our strategy is to grow our equity base through expanding cash flow. We will achieve this through operating efficiency, responsible growth, lower leverage, and reduced funding costs. Best of all is the more cash flow we create, the more cash efficient SelectQuote becomes. 2026 was a great year of inflection for our strategy, and we believe fiscal '27 presents an even greater opportunity to demonstrate our value to shareholders. With that, let me turn the call back to the operator for your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Ben Hendrix from RBC Capital Markets.

질의응답

Benjamin Hendrix

Just a couple of questions on the health services segment. Can you talk about any kind of opportunities you might have to grow membership outside of kind of congruency with the senior business? Are there opportunities? I know you guys are very focused across selling those two segments, but is there an opportunity to look outside of the senior and AEP trends, kind of given the softer dynamics in the MA over the next year?

Timothy Danker

Yes, Ben, good morning. This is Tim. Thank you for joining. I'll make a few comments and ask Bob Grant to talk to some of your specifics. But again, really pleased with the inflection point in the fourth quarter for our healthcare services business. So you can see how this business is certainly picking up steam, as you indicated. There is a very synergistic relationship between our senior platform and our healthcare services division. And given the small, kind of prudent pullback that we're making in the senior division, given the market dynamics, that will have some pull-through impact to healthcare.

Our current focus is really around driving operational efficiencies and some additional technology that we think will help us prove out the doubling of margins in healthcare that we mentioned. To your point, we're still a small piece of the market and have opportunities outside just the pure-play relationship with seniors. Bob, if you want to comment on what we're doing there, I'd appreciate it.

Robert Grant

Right now, you know, we have historically been and are still very focused on cross-sell, and with the mild pullback in Medicare, it's why, you know, not as much growth that we would expect in the top line or membership there. However, we are very, very focused in efficiency, replacing a lot of our technology, you know, using AI to help assist and make things much faster and smoother and drop cost, you know, per shipment out the door so that we can increase market share especially on kind of new membership and kind of get there a lot quicker. You see that really reflected in the guide and what we saw in the fourth quarter where we have nearly a $50 million run rate.

I would say with that this year, we'll really, really hone in on that, use this kind of mild pullback in Medicare as an opportunity to really focus on the cash flow and efficiency of that business. And then, yes, as we get even more efficient, it allows us to afford some CAC on our actual side of the house and really allows us to start testing and learning on kind of third parties and things like that because there is a massive market opportunity beyond just what we do as a cross-sell within Medicare, but it does come at a little bit of a cost. So as we increase that margin, it allows us, again, to really lean into that and find those sources and test and vet. So we're a little bit focused on both, but I would say this year, it's hyper-focused on increasing that margin and cash flow efficiency.

Benjamin Hendrix

Appreciate that, and just a little one more on kind of the integration of operations through the Kansas City facility. Can you remind us where that stands in terms of penetration in your total volume, where that could go, and then ultimately what you would expect target margins for the segment to be once that's, you know, fully integrated?

Robert Grant

Yes, we are, I'll let Ryan actually speak to the margins at the end. As far as integration, still a relatively small percentage of our overall volume because we're very focused on kind of our new technologies and different things within that facility. And then as of this AEP, we would expect a huge percentage of our enrollments and overall members to move to Kansas City, which as Tim said is far more efficient and has higher margins than our other sites. We'll then take those learnings and retrofit our other sites to make them more efficient and better. So all those dollars too, as we decrease that cost per shipment out the door, increase those margins. It all falls to the bottom line. It's a really exciting thing as we've seen the reality play out of Kansas City. As Tim said, it's about 30% more efficient than our other sites, so we know that there's a path there, now it's just being, you know, very tactical in how we go and get that. But we are very close. And again, this AEP, you'll see a massive growth within the Kansas City facility. Ryan?

Ryan Clement

Yes, and with respect to the margins, obviously we're at an inflection point. We had a really great quarter. We saw this step increase in terms of margin progression. And we talked about this coming year expecting margins to double on a year-over-year basis. Over the long term, we are still expecting low double-digit EBITDA margins. That's our long-term target for this segment. Obviously, efficiency gains both in Kansas City and other things that are on the horizon are all part of that story.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of George Sutton from Craig-Hallum.

George Sutton

My first question is around the MA market. You used a few adjectives like fluid, dynamic, and volatile, but you also mentioned green shoots that you're starting to see. I wondered if you can give us an updated thought on carrier messaging that you're getting. You're obviously investing less this season. So just kind of curious, are we maintaining upside potential if the market turns? Any thoughts that would be helpful?

Timothy Danker

Hey, George, appreciate you joining this morning and the question. Yes, I think more broadly, we are seeing a healing in the MA market. There's been year-over-year improvement, but there's still work to do. The payers are signaling to get to their 3% to 4% operating margin. So there's more work that needs to happen. And we expect to see a lot of discipline in the market. That's been our conversations with carriers. Their MLRs are still elevated relative to historical norms, maybe better than forecast, but higher than historical. And a byproduct of that will be a continuation of some level of market disruption via plan terminations and benefit pullbacks.

And our conversations, it feels like, carrier dependent, you know, towards hopefully the later innings of this recovery and a reemergence to what we would call responsible or targeted growth on planning year 2028. Certainly things around special needs plans continue to be a focus for the payers and one that we over-index to in our carrier line too. So our current plan of action is, you heard from our comments, is to match the market in terms of prudence around MA growth, and continue to focus on cash flow. That was our indication around slightly lower policy volumes. But we will continue to be opportunistic around, as we see opportunities, we're nimble. And I think we've proven that over the past four years, it's been honestly, you know, tough sledding, and we've produced mid-20s EBITDA margins for four years. We'll be in position to do that again. We'll be in position to react to the market if there's interesting opportunities, but overall the message is a resounding enterprise-wide focus on cash flow, how that can accrete equity value to shareholders.

George Sutton

On the Rx side, a couple of dynamics I just wanted to ask about. First on the pricing impacts of the IRA, just so we fully understand that went in effect in early '26, but how impactful, if you can quantify that. Ryan mentioned serving the customers that need us the most. What I read into that is those who have the most prescriptions and therefore are more profitable versus those who have limited needs. Can you just walk through how you're managing that relative to the growth of that segment?

Robert Grant

Yes, sorry. On the IRA and the impact of that, it's obviously trying to push down costs to the overall consumer. You know, there's some really tough dynamics on that because it puts a lot of pressure on the payers and then puts pressure on the pharmacies from a revenue perspective. But to Ryan's point, doesn't put a lot of pressure on the pharmacies from an overall margin perspective. So the IRA though has introduced some things where because the payers' cost for drugs has gone up so much because they're eating a lot of that, they have changed some of the plan designs. I mean, that's been part of some of the impact of this kind of disruption to where they're introducing coinsurance for drugs and things like that. Those things that we hadn't really seen before. So the IRA has ultimately though, you know, put a lot of pressure, I'd say in the front half of the year on the cost of drugs for consumers because of the coinsurance and those things. That'll continue to be the case. And again, Ryan will talk about it. It does put pressure on our revenue, not our margins though, which is why you see margin progression but revenue pressure. Ryan?

Ryan Clement

Yes, so with respect to the way it works, I mean, the overarching cost to the consumer comes down. We actually do receive elsewhere in the cost of goods line item, a rebate back from manufacturers. So again, the impact at the top line is more meaningful than it is on the bottom line. As you mentioned, went into effect calendar Q1. And so that's created some pressure. And certainly as we look to 2027, where you've got kind of the wraparound impact and having a full year plus 2027, of the top line, but again, it's less significant in terms of EBITDA margin where we expect, you know, margins to actually double year over year. And so, you know, we're not going to be able to get that to the top line, and really, really pleased with the business's results and the cash generation both in 2027, but also what we see beyond 2027.

George Sutton

So I thought the points on leverage reduction and the impact to your cash flows being pretty meaningful. Ryan, I'm just curious, what is a realistic assumption for leverage reduction? Is it just simply limited to the cash flows that you generate, or are there considerations around more aggressive use of the receivables balance or segment M&A, anything like that?

Ryan Clement

Yes, I mean, I think this is a key area for the business and how do we reduce our overall cost of capital. So I'd say there are a range of paths, but I think the one that's probably most prominent, obviously, is the significant progression in operating cash flow is our key area of focus. 2027, we've talked about $60 plus million. We're not specifically guiding to 2028. But we see increasing levels of cash flow in our multi-year forecast. And we do expect to be a cash payer in terms of the PIK, but also see a path to delevering and a lower cost of capital via future refinancing.

Timothy Danker

George, I would just add all those options are on the table. We absolutely want to be really clear that, to Ryan's point, we see a clear path in terms of increasing cash flow generation, natural deleveraging, a better cost of capital, all of the above that can lead to enhances in equity value for shareholders.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of [ Steven Cush ] from Jefferies.

Unknown Analyst

Hi, this is Steven on for Dave. So the cash flow, I wanted to start there. The EBITDA down a little under $10 million year over year, but operating cash flow improving $30 million. Is that $40 million delta primarily a function of the slower growth in senior, or are there other factors in play?

Ryan Clement

No, the primary drivers of the improved cash flow is continued progression in healthcare services. We expect those margins to expand. We've highlighted the significant progress we're seeing from our Kansas pharmacy and we expect that to continue to build upon that as we roll out the pharmacy management system that we built out. Additionally, the AI technology efforts are also ranking nicely, which is a meaningful contributor to pretty significant anticipated cost savings around $30 million. A lot of that's tied to kind of a combination of reducing labor intensity through AI, but also streamlining some of our back office functions. We have, as you mentioned, we have been prudent with our investments, but the vast majority of that step increase is actually driven by the healthcare services segment.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. And then on healthcare services, I just wanted to clarify, you expect membership by the end of fiscal year '27 to be roughly flat with the end of fiscal year '26. And so is that despite, you know, sort of lower approved policies coming out of senior?

Timothy Danker

That is correct. Yes, that's correct. That's correct, Steven. We do expect to be roughly flat at the end of the year. We'll go through our normal, you know, there'll be a little bit of a pullback going into 1Q as we come off of, you know, the SEP period before ramping up into AEP and OEP. Again, part of this is predicated upon the slight pullback in our senior business, but again, the real focus is what Bob was highlighting around operational efficiencies, the introduction of new technology, the hyper focus around margin accretion, nailing down the operations, improving the cash flow, and then pushing more into the scaling of the business.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. And then maybe if I could sneak in one more. I'm seeing your conversion rates remained really strong. It was actually above 100% this quarter. Can you help us understand how that's possible and then any impact that had on the quarter financially? And then do you expect, I know you've done some work around conversion rates and trying to improve those, do you expect the conversion rates in fiscal '27 to stay high like we've seen in the back half of fiscal '26?

Robert Grant

If you're talking to sales agent conversion, is that what you're speaking to or Ryan? Yes. I'll speak to rates on the actual policies themselves. So as far as sales agent close rates, just as a reminder, because SEP has materially changed, we've pulled back a little bit, which was reflected in the number of policies in that quarter year over year due to there not being as many opportunities for a consumer to buy. When we do that, right, our best people end up taking those leads and we see higher conversion rates, which took down the estimated pressure we had on Q4 conversion rates. I would say for the next year, as a percentage of our overall policies, core agents, which I think everybody here, that means you've been through one AEP with us, have significantly higher conversion rates. So we would anticipate AEP and OEP to have high conversion rates relative to the environment. And we should see those push, you know, and be similar to last year, maybe a little bit greater due to a greater percentage of our overall agent base being core agents, even though we're pulling back on policies a little bit. So we do feel really good about where we are there and especially the force of agents that we have. Ryan, you want to talk about approval rates?

Ryan Clement

Yes, and so in terms of approval, and I think the dynamic that you were speaking to was approved policies exceeded submitted policies, which, you know, what actually allows that to happen is not all policies get approved in the first month that they're submitted. And so, you know, you have the busy season and then you've got a slowing down at the SEP, but there's still approvals that trickle in from the prior periods. And so that's really what drove that. But as Bob mentioned, the approval rates have been strong. The conversion rates within our agent workforce has also been strong. And we're pleased with the overall performance.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Kupinski from NOBLE Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski

You guys have a very strong cash flow story. I can't imagine that the market couldn't recognize that at some point here. You have $1 billion of commissions receivable and more than $60 million of operating cash flow expected this year. Can you kind of help me understand how much of the fiscal '27 cash generation is coming from the existing commissions receivable book? And more broadly, can you give us a framework for the cash expect to generate over the next three to five years?

Ryan Clement

Yes. So, in terms of operating cash flow, as you mentioned, strong progress in 2026. Expect to build upon that in 2027 with operating cash flow exceeding $60 million. In terms of the commission receivables, obviously, we're going to be looking at the commission. Obviously, we've sold policies for years and have a billion dollars in receivables, like you mentioned, and those cash flows trickle in. When you think about where we ended fiscal '26 and where we end 2027, we actually expect that commission receivables balance to be relatively flat, selling policies and replacing that balance as we are drawing down on or collecting on the prior policy sales. And in terms of future periods, while we're not specifically guiding to 2028, we are absolutely managing the business to grow operating cash flow over the long term. We have a multi-year plan and we've been, we again have visibility and line of sight to stronger operating cash flow in the future that we believe will ultimately lead to a refinancing and lower cost of capital. We are intensely focused on cash generation.

Timothy Danker

Yes, Michael, I might just add to Ryan's comment that hopefully we've made it really clear that we have a lot of conviction around the improvement in cash flow. You saw the $44 million year-over-year improvement. We're talking about a doubling this year. We're talking about the doubling of margins in healthcare services. So while we can't provide, you know, today we're not here to talk about a three-year outlook. That might be something we talk about in the future. You know, all of our business lines are cash flow generative. Healthcare services, you can see the inflection point in the fourth quarter and our $50 million run rate, the doubling of margins, that business is going to continue to grow and kick off cash flow. Our life insurance business, we didn't spend a lot of time talking about it, but it's a very nice contributor to cash flow. And a senior business that has a lot of utility around a billion-dollar back book. And what we're choosing to do around, you know, be improved in this year. So more to come on that front, but would make a point that we have a high degree of conviction and a growing cash flow base, which will help the company, you know, lead to deleveraging, a better cost of capital, and a lot of accretion of value to shareholders.

Michael Kupinski

Got you. And then, obviously, your outlook for a very strong free cash flow, has that changed your thinking around another receivable securitization?

Ryan Clement

I don't know that it's changed our position. Obviously, we put a tremendous amount of effort into putting the infrastructure in place in support of securitization, and it's still in place. It's performing, and it is a path that's available to us given our current capital structure like there is an immediate need to make a change. It is something that again we have there as an option. Obviously, one other piece, though, is the Medicare market dynamics, which in the last two years have been somewhat disruptive. And so at this point, I'd say the probability in the short term is relatively low.

Michael Kupinski

Got you. And then with the free cash flow, just a little bit about capital allocation, I was just wondering about how you are allocating between debt reduction, addressing the preferred securities and reinvesting the business, and then is there a leverage or capital structure target you would consider returning capital to common shareholders?

Ryan Clement

Yes, we are obviously excited about the cash generation of the business and where we're headed. In terms of capital allocation and what we're doing with it, delevering and high ROI investments would be kind of top of list. And when I say high ROI investments, I'm talking one that would first either enhance the cash generation, but ultimately delevering is the key area of focus for the business and that could come in the form of cash pay on the PIK. We do intend to cash pay in the future, but again, it could also be other forms of delevering. So we haven't earmarked the dollars, if you will, but certainly are focused on cash generation and ultimately delevering.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Tim Danker, Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks.

Timothy Danker

I want to thank you all again for your time. We really do appreciate your support. As Ryan and I both noted, the SelectQuote model continues to drive consistent and reliable value to our customers and insurance carrier partners. We know the underlying cash flows for our services are real and significant, and we look forward to convincing more and more investors of that value in our equity in the months and years ahead.

Operator

Thank you, and have a great day. We'll talk to you soon. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.