Conferencia de resultados del 3T de 2026 de Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR): perspectivas para 2027
Alpha Metallurgical Resources reportó un EBITDA ajustado de 29,4 millones de dólares en el tercer trimestre de 2026, impulsado por mayores envíos. La liquidez totalizó 443,4 millones de dólares y la línea de crédito ABL se mantuvo sin disposiciones. Para 2027, la dirección proyecta envíos totales de entre 14,3 y 15,7 millones de toneladas y un costo de ventas de carbón de entre 104 y 110 dólares por tonelada. Los riesgos principales incluyen la presión inflacionaria en los costos de insumos, como el diésel, las limitaciones logísticas derivadas de la interrupción en DTA y la volatilidad general en la demanda mundial de acero.
Puntos clave
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources reportó un EBITDA ajustado de 29,4 millones de dólares en el tercer trimestre de 2026, por encima de los 25,6 millones de dólares del segundo trimestre, impulsado por un aumento de los envíos a 3,9 millones de toneladas frente a los 3,5 millones de toneladas anteriores.
- El costo de ventas de carbón del segmento Met aumentó secuencialmente a 106,93 dólares por tonelada desde los 103,07 dólares por tonelada, mientras que el precio promedio ponderado obtenido por el carbón metalúrgico se mantuvo prácticamente estable en 124,52 dólares por tonelada.
- La liquidez a fin de año totalizó 443,4 millones de dólares al 30 de septiembre, incluidos 334,1 millones de dólares en efectivo y equivalentes de efectivo. La línea de crédito basada en activos (ABL) no registró disposiciones.
- La dirección prevé para 2027 unos envíos de entre 14,3 millones y 15,7 millones de toneladas y un costo de ventas de carbón de entre 104 y 110 dólares por tonelada.
- Alpha ha contratado 3,5 millones de toneladas con clientes nacionales para 2027 a un precio fijo promedio de 135,48 dólares por tonelada.
- La dirección prevé que el apilador-recuperador dañado de DTA deba ser reemplazado, con un plazo estimado de unos dos años. Se espera que la capacidad en terminales alternativas respalde los envíos previstos, aunque la logística sigue siendo una limitación para un incremento sustancial del volumen.
Datos financieros clave
| Métrica | 3T 2026 | 2T 2026 | Variación o contexto |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA ajustado | 29,4 millones de dólares | 25,6 millones de dólares | Aumentó secuencialmente |
| Toneladas vendidas | 3,9 millones | 3,5 millones | Aumentó secuencialmente |
| Precio promedio obtenido en el segmento Met | 121,09 dólares/tonelada | 118,71 dólares/tonelada | Aumentó secuencialmente |
| Precio promedio ponderado obtenido por el carbón metalúrgico | 124,52 dólares/tonelada | 124,30 dólares/tonelada | Prácticamente estable |
| Precio obtenido por el carbón térmico incidental | 79,44 dólares/tonelada | 79,36 dólares/tonelada | Prácticamente estable |
| Costo de ventas de carbón del segmento Met | 106,93 dólares/tonelada | 103,07 dólares/tonelada | Aumentó secuencialmente |
| SG&A ajustado | 15,0 millones de dólares | 13,7 millones de dólares | Excluye la remuneración en acciones no monetaria y las partidas extraordinarias |
| Flujo de caja operativo | 46,9 millones de dólares | 39,9 millones de dólares | Aumentó secuencialmente |
| Gastos de capital | 33,8 millones de dólares | 45,1 millones de dólares | Disminuyó secuencialmente |
| Liquidez total | 443,4 millones de dólares | 447,8 millones de dólares | Al 30 de septiembre y al 30 de junio, respectivamente |
El carbón metalúrgico de exportación fijado con referencia a los índices del Atlántico y otros mecanismos obtuvo un precio de 107,03 dólares por tonelada, frente a los 109,08 dólares del segundo trimestre. El carbón referenciado a los índices australianos alcanzó los 150,46 dólares por tonelada, frente a los 143,82 dólares anteriores.
Al 30 de septiembre, Alpha disponía de 334,1 millones de dólares en efectivo y equivalentes de efectivo, y contaba con 184,3 millones de dólares de disponibilidad no utilizada en su línea ABL, sujeta a un requisito de liquidez mínima de 75 millones de dólares. La línea ABL no presentaba disposiciones y mantenía 40,7 millones de dólares en cartas de crédito pendientes.
Desempeño operativo y del negocio
El volumen de envíos del tercer trimestre mejoró frente a los 3,6 millones de toneladas del primer trimestre y los 3,5 millones del segundo. La dirección indicó que las presiones de costos continuaron afectando los resultados, aunque el ritmo de inflación de los costos de los insumos se había moderado.
Alpha está orientando su combinación de producción hacia una mayor proporción de carbón metalúrgico de baja y media volatilidad y una menor de carbón de alta volatilidad. La mina Wildcat está incrementando su producción y se prevé que aporte al menos varios cientos de miles de toneladas adicionales de carbón de baja volatilidad al mercado marítimo, aunque los clientes nacionales también han mostrado interés.
Los contratos nacionales de la empresa para 2027 cubren 3,5 millones de toneladas a un precio fijo promedio de 135,48 dólares por tonelada. La dirección señaló que el carbón de alta volatilidad representa una mayor proporción de la combinación de calidades nacional de 2027 que en 2026, lo que influyó en el precio promedio contratado.
Se prevé que el apilador-recuperador SR1 dañado en DTA sea reemplazado en lugar de reparado. La dirección estimó que el diseño a medida, la ingeniería, la construcción y la instalación podrían demorar cerca de dos años. Alpha planea utilizar capacidad en otras terminales de Hampton Roads mientras se lleva a cabo el reemplazo.
Previsiones de la dirección
| Partida de las previsiones para 2027 | Perspectivas de la empresa |
|---|---|
| Envíos de carbón metalúrgico | 13,1 millones–14,1 millones de toneladas |
| Envíos de carbón térmico incidental | 1,2 millones–1,6 millones de toneladas |
| Envíos totales | 14,3 millones–15,7 millones de toneladas |
| Costo de ventas de carbón | 104–110 dólares por tonelada |
| SG&A | 53 millones–59 millones de dólares |
| Gastos por inactividad | 25 millones–33 millones de dólares |
| Ingresos netos por intereses en efectivo | 2 millones–4 millones de dólares |
| Depreciación, agotamiento y amortización | 148 millones–162 millones de dólares |
| Gastos de capital | 145 millones–165 millones de dólares |
| Aportaciones a empresas asociadas | 28 millones–37 millones de dólares |
| Tasa impositiva en efectivo | 0%–5% |
La previsión de SG&A excluye gastos extraordinarios y remuneraciones en acciones no monetarias. Las aportaciones a empresas asociadas incluyen contribuciones en efectivo para DTA.
Para 2026, el 87% del tonelaje metalúrgico estaba comprometido y con precio fijado a un promedio de 126,69 dólares por tonelada en el punto medio de las previsiones. Otro 12% estaba comprometido, pero aún sin precio fijado. El tonelaje térmico incidental estaba totalmente comprometido y con precio fijado a un promedio de 76,06 dólares por tonelada.
Riesgos y aspectos a vigilar
- Presión de costos: El costo de ventas de carbón del segmento Met aumentó secuencialmente. Las previsiones de la dirección para 2027 asumen precios del diésel en el rango medio-bajo de los 5 dólares por galón.
- Interrupción en DTA: El apilador-recuperador dañado podría tardar unos dos años en ser reemplazado. La dirección no prevé un desembolso de capital significativo relacionado, pero afirmó que aún es demasiado pronto para evaluar con precisión los plazos del reembolso del seguro.
- Capacidad logística: Las terminales alternativas ofrecen flexibilidad, pero la dirección señaló que no existe un potencial de incremento sustancial por encima del ritmo de producción previsto actualmente. Cumplir los objetivos de envíos exige un desempeño confiable tanto de las terminales como del ferrocarril.
- Volatilidad del mercado del carbón: La dirección mencionó los conflictos geopolíticos, las condiciones económicas globales y la débil demanda mundial de acero como fuentes de incertidumbre.
- Evolución de los índices: El índice Australian Premium Low Vol cayó de 272,10 dólares por tonelada métrica al 30 de septiembre a 262,20 dólares al 5 de noviembre, mientras que la evolución de los índices de la costa este de EE. UU. varió según la calidad del carbón.
Puntos destacados de la sesión de preguntas y respuestas con analistas
La dirección afirmó que la mayor parte de los aumentos en los costos de los insumos ya se ha trasladado a la base de costos de Alpha, y no prevé un incremento significativo respecto al ritmo actual en 2027. Alpha consume aproximadamente entre 20 y 22 millones de galones de diésel en todas sus operaciones, lo que convierte los precios del combustible en un factor clave de sensibilidad en los costos.
Respecto al potencial de aumento de la producción, la dirección señaló que DTA sigue siendo una limitación a pesar del acceso adicional a otras terminales de exportación. Alpha se siente cómoda con su ritmo operativo previsto para 2027, pero no vislumbra un margen de crecimiento significativo por encima del límite superior sin un sólido desempeño de las terminales y del ferrocarril.
El aumento gradual de la producción en la mina Wildcat debería incrementar la disponibilidad de carbón de baja volatilidad. La dirección indicó que las decisiones comerciales se enfocarán en los rendimientos netos y no en si las ventas están vinculadas específicamente a los índices australianos o a los de la costa este de EE. UU.
En cuanto a la asignación de capital, Alpha continúa evaluando posibles transacciones, pero exige sinergias geográficas y de calidad, además de que resulten acretivas en términos financieros. La dirección afirmó que pocas oportunidades disponibles cumplen actualmente estas tres condiciones.
El gasto de desarrollo previsto para 2027 incluye obras de embalses de estériles en Virginia para respaldar la planta de preparación de McClure y Deep Mine 41, posibles trabajos en la planta de preparación de Kepler que presta servicio a Road Fork 52 y labores prospectivas limitadas en proyectos a más largo plazo.
Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados
Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados
Comentarios de la dirección
Operator
Greetings. Welcome to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Emily O'Quinn, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. You may begin.
Emily O'Quinn
Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Before we get started, let me remind you that during our prepared remarks, our comments regarding anticipated business and financial performance contain forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed. For more information regarding forward-looking statements and some of the factors that can affect them, please refer to the company's third quarter 2026 earnings release and the associated SEC filing. Please also see those documents for information about our use of non-GAAP measures and their reconciliation to GAAP measures.
On the call today, I'm joined by Alpha's Chief Executive Officer, Andy Eidson; and Chief Financial Officer, Todd Munsey, who will provide prepared remarks. Also participating on the call are our President and Chief Operating Officer, Jason Whitehead; and our Chief Commercial Officer, Dan Horn. Following the prepared remarks, we will be available to answer questions.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Andy.
Charles Eidson
Thanks, Emily, and good morning, everyone. Today, we released our definitive third quarter financial results, which include adjusted EBITDA of $29.4 million and 3.9 million tons shipped. Our third quarter volumes improved compared to the first 2 quarters of the year, which were 3.6 million and 3.5 million tons, respectively. Cost pressures continue to influence our financial results, and we remain committed to managing these cost challenges and continually evaluating the portfolio against the needs of the metallurgical coal market.
Speaking of the market, we have completed our annual budgeting process that culminates in the operational guidance expectations we issued today. I'll let Todd cover those in detail, but it's important to note that our 2027 guidance reflects current expectations for the coming calendar year, which includes our analysis of potential financial impacts and 2027 terminal capabilities at DTA in Newport News. Following the storm-related damage that occurred in June, DTA management has worked diligently to keep operations moving and collaborate with the various parties about potential go-forward plans.
As a result of these conversations, DTA believes the stacker reclaimer referred to as SR1 will need to be replaced as opposed to repaired, and they've been in close contact with DTA's insurance provider about covering the replacement cost as well as potentially certain other expenses incurred due to the damage. As such, it's important to note that we do not anticipate significant capital outlays in association with the stacker reclaimer replacement process. As far as timing is concerned, a total replacement of the stacker reclaimer would be a fully custom build requiring specialized design, engineering, construction and installation.
Such work will likely require a lengthy time line, with current estimates in the 2-year ballpark. This is why we've worked so hard to establish a logistical framework that minimizes our disruption -- the disruption to our sales and logistics processes and allows us to keep coal moving to our customers while DTA addresses the damaged stacker reclaimer. This includes a plan to also utilize our throughput capacity at other Hampton Roads terminals in addition to DTA. As evidenced by our more normalized third quarter shipment volumes, we are optimistic about our ability to move all the tons we need to in 2027 and beyond.
As we look to next year, our guidance includes 3.5 million tons that we plan to sell to domestic customers in 2027 at an average price of $135.48 per ton. We're pleased to announce the results of the domestic negotiations, which are fixed-price annual contracts. Each year's negotiation is a little different depending on the market backdrop and a variety of factors. For example, high-vol made up a greater proportion of our 2027 domestic quality mix than in 2026, which influences the average price achieved for the total domestic book. All in all, we're pleased with these commitments, and we look forward to building the rest of our 2027 sales around opportunities in the seaborne market.
As usual, our teams are doing great work throughout the Alpha organization, and several operations have received recognition for their efforts. On the environmental front, our Paramont team in Virginia was recently honored with 3 Excellence in Mining awards from the Metallurgical Coal Producers Association. Virginia Energy also awarded them with 3 Safety Awards at their recent ceremony. Both of Alpha's mine rescue teams continue stacking wins as well, including first and second place finishes across many categories of competition in the National Mine Rescue contest that was held in August. We're extremely proud of our Paramont team that earned the top honor of National Grand Champion this year with a perfect score for the competition. These miners continually train, practice and challenge themselves so they're prepared to respond when their skills are needed. So congratulations to all those team members.
I'll now turn the call over to Todd for a review of our financial results for the third quarter.
Todd Munsey
Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $29.4 million, up from $25.6 million in the second quarter. We sold 3.9 million tons in Q3, up from 3.5 million tons in Q2. Met segment realizations increased quarter-over-quarter with an average realization of $121.09 in the third quarter compared to $118.71 in the second quarter. Export Met tons priced against Atlantic indices and other pricing mechanisms in the third quarter realized $107.03 per ton, while export coal priced on the Australian indices realized $150.46 per ton.
These results are compared to realizations of $109.08 per ton and $143.82 per ton, respectively, in the second quarter. The realization for our metallurgical sales in the third quarter was a total weighted average of $124.52 per ton, roughly flat against the second quarter average of $124.30 per ton. Realizations in the incidental thermal portion of the Met segment were also essentially flat quarter-over-quarter at $79.44 per ton in Q3 compared to $79.36 per ton in Q2. Cost of coal sales for our Met segment increased to $106.93 per ton in the third quarter, up from $103.07 per ton in the second quarter. SG&A, excluding noncash stock compensation and nonrecurring items, increased to $15 million in the third quarter compared to $13.7 million in the second quarter.
Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. As of September 30, we had $334.1 million in cash and cash equivalents as compared to $338.5 million of cash and short-term investments as of June 30. We had $184.3 million in unused availability under our ABL at the end of the third quarter, partially offset by a minimum required liquidity of $75 million. As of the end of September, Alpha had total liquidity of $443.4 million, down slightly from $447.8 million at the end of June. CapEx for the third quarter was $33.8 million, down from $45.1 million in Q2. Cash provided by operating activities was $46.9 million in the third quarter, up from $39.9 million in the second quarter. As of September 30, our ABL facility had no borrowings and $40.7 million of letters of credit outstanding.
Looking ahead, we issued 2027 operational guidance this morning. For sales volumes, we expect to ship between 13.1 million and 14.1 million metallurgical tons as well as another 1.2 million to 1.6 million tons of incidental thermal coal, bringing total 2027 shipment expectations to a range of 14.3 million to 15.7 million tons for the year. For 2027 cost of coal sales, we are guiding to a range of $104 to $110 per ton. Selling, general and administrative costs are expected to be between $53 million and $59 million in 2027, excluding nonrecurring expenses and noncash stock compensation. Idle expense is expected to be between $25 million and $33 million. We anticipate 2027 net cash interest income of between $2 million and $4 million and depreciation, depletion and amortization of $148 million to $162 million.
Capital expenditures, including carryover development and maintenance capital, are expected to be in the range of $145 million to $165 million. Contributions to equity affiliates are expected to be in the range of $28 million to $37 million, which include cash contributions for DTA. Lastly, we are projecting a 2027 cash tax rate of between 0% and 5%.
In terms of our committed position for 2026, at the midpoint of guidance, 87% of our metallurgical tonnage in the Met segment is committed and priced at an average price of $126.69. Another 12% of our Met tonnage for the year is committed, but not yet priced. The thermal byproduct portion of the Met segment is fully committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance at an average price of $76.06.
Coal markets remain subject to uncertainty and volatility resulting from geopolitical conflicts and global economic conditions. Improving indicators and manufacturing conditions across key Alpha markets suggest that economic conditions are stable with almost all in growth territory. While global steel demand remains weak, supply related factors such as mine closure announcements temporarily influenced metallurgical coal indices to rise toward the end of the third quarter with further volatility continuing after the quarter close.
The Australian Premium Low Vol index increased from $244 per metric ton on July 1 to $272.10 per metric ton on September 30. The U.S. East Coast Low Vol index rose from $190 per metric ton at the beginning of the quarter to $210 per metric ton by the end of September. The U.S. East Coast High Vol A index increased from $157 per metric ton at the start of the quarter to $195 per metric ton at the quarter's close. And the U.S. East Coast High Vol B index rose from $147 per metric ton to $170 per metric ton at the end of the quarter. Since then, the Australian Premium Low Vol index has decreased to $262.20 per metric ton as of November 5, representing a drop of roughly 4% since quarter close.
U.S. East Coast Low Vol is unchanged from quarter close, at $210 per ton. U.S. East Coast High Vol A has declined about 3% to $190 per ton, while High Vol B has risen slightly to $174.50 per ton as of November 5. In the seaborne thermal market, the API2 index was $115.50 per metric ton at the beginning of July and increased to $141.40 per metric ton at the end of September. Since then, the API2 index has moved down to $136.30 per metric ton as of November 5.
With that, operator, we are now ready to open the call for questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from George Eadie with UBS.
Preguntas y respuestas
George Eadie
Can I ask on the cost front? So cash costs only 2% higher year-on-year at midpoint, even if I adjust for marginally higher midpoint sales volumes. Can you maybe just talk through what goes into that and sort of potential cost sensitivities for things like diesel? And I guess it sort of seems like a very low year-on-year cost increase given a lot in this sector are talking about a lot of input and broader sort of cost pressures.
Charles Eidson
George, this is Andy. I appreciate the question. Yes, we're actually pretty pleased with where our cost guidance is coming out for next year, although it is up a bit. I mean we've really seen the vast majority of the input cost impacts have already found their way into the system for us. So again, we would hope that there would be some relief on the diesel side. Hopefully, that situation gets resolved sometime in the near future.
And even then, it will take a while to work its way through the system. But we're just -- we're not saying that the input cost increases have flatlined, but the rate of increase has tailed back quite a bit. And once you bake in the impact of the diesel and all the oil adjuncts, I think we're -- currently, our run rate is pretty well reflective of that. So next year, we don't see a material amount of increase from there.
George Eadie
What diesel price did you assume in guidance for '27, Andy?
Charles Eidson
Off the top of my head, I don't know. Yes, I think it was low to mid-5s on a per gallon cost.
George Eadie
Okay. And then like what's the sensitivity, if you were to sort of estimate ballpark per ton on your cash cost, if that went back to sort of, say, mid-3s, like what's the potential production cash cost?
Charles Eidson
Well, I'll leave you to do the math on that, but we do run in the low 20 million gallons of diesel across all operations. So 20 million to 22 million gallons. So you could figure what the sensitivity is on that across all the tons.
George Eadie
Okay. Yes, that's perfect. And then just one more, sort of getting back to the 16 million ton per annum levels. Can you talk through how that looks? And if DTA sort of being down for the 2-year ballpark you guys flagged, is a constraint? Or I guess another way of asking was if markets got a lot stronger next year, could you push beyond that 15.7 million upper end, do you think? Or like what is the constraining limit to higher volumes for you guys at the moment?
Charles Eidson
Yes. I mean DTA obviously will be a constraint. Our sales and logistics team has done a really nice job, as I mentioned in the comments -- the prepared comments. They've done a nice job of finding flexibility and optionality with other export terminal access. So there will be a point in which we can't expand any further. I'm not going to throw out a number for that because, again, the team is pretty creative in finding new paths to get tons where we need them to go. But I think we're comfortable with our current run rate. I don't think there's a huge amount of upside to that.
And we're going to need the terminals to operate well, we're going to need the railroads to perform well to hit all of our numbers the way we want to. But I think we're going to be able to get there. And it's not going to look that different year-over-year comparing to 2026. From a quality perspective, it's going to look a little bit different because, again, I think we are moving around in our -- as has been our plan, we are shifting as a lot of other folks are. We've been working on a multiyear plan to shift more of our production from higher-ranked coals from the low-vol and mid-vol and a little bit less on the high-vol side. So that will continue to develop. But I think logistically, all of that fits pretty well into what we've got planned for 2027.
Operator
Our next question comes from Nick Giles with B. Riley Securities.
Nick Giles
It was good to hear that there's more high-vol coal in the domestic mix, which I assume leaves more low-vol coals to send into the seaborne market. So I was wondering if you could just quantify that mix shift, maybe how many incremental tons of low-vol would you be able to send -- export next year?
Charles Eidson
Nick, I'll throw that one over to Dan. That one is definitely -- he's got the numbers at his fingertips there.
Daniel Horn
Thanks, Andy. Well, let's start by saying that the high-vol that moved into the domestic market, that's coal that is a little -- let's say, a little lower value coal, and that was reflected in the overall comments that we have there in the pricing. But as we ramp up the low-vol mine, our new Wildcat mine, it's kind of dynamic. So you can't really compare our portfolio in '26 to what it's going to look like in '27. So as Wildcat ramps up, we'll have more low-vol available.
And broadly speaking, that's -- at this moment, that's all available for the seaborne market, but we've had a lot of interest in the domestic market, too, as it ramps up. But I won't give you a number, but it's several hundred thousand tons at least that would be available to go seaborne easily as well as our usual mix of high-vol and quite a bit of medium-vol, which is always sought after.
Nick Giles
Got it. Okay. I mean any sense for how much of that would be PLV linked? Or I guess, kind of what do the commercial discussions look like today in terms of getting more tons sold on a PLV basis?
Daniel Horn
Yes. I don't have -- there's -- I'll say this, there's quite a bit of interest from customers that we would sell against the Aussie indices, but I can't quantify that. The Wildcat coal is a premium coal that should -- that will achieve a premium to a lot of other U.S. low-vols, we think. So whether we sell it against an Aussie index or very strongly against the U.S. East Coast index, I mean, we're happy. We focus on the net return, not just the index.
Nick Giles
Makes sense. No, I appreciate that. Maybe just shifting gears to the stacker reclaimer. It's good to hear that you feel like that's fully covered from an insurance perspective. But how should we think about the timing of those insurance reimbursements versus any capital outlays that may be required? Or said differently, is there a scenario where you might have to invest in the new stacker reclaimer and kind of wait a few quarters for the insurance reimbursements to come in?
Charles Eidson
Yes. I think it's probably a little too early to comment on that one, Nick. I don't expect there to be too much of a sequencing problem from that respect, certainly not a multi-quarter type of reimbursement gap. Obviously, you may have a few weeks or a few months, but we're pretty pleased with how our insurance -- or DTA's insurance carriers has responded thus far. They've been very helpful and constructive in helping us move along this process relatively quickly. So yes, I don't expect an impact. But again, it's probably too early in the process to be making too many prognostications there.
Nick Giles
Okay. No, fair enough, Andy. Maybe just one last one from me on the capital allocation front. Would just be good to get an update on what you're seeing among your kind of smaller peers in Central App. Are there any opportunities out there to pick up some tons at a discount? Or have you heard any rumblings of kind of more capacity that's come offline?
Charles Eidson
Really not in a position to comment on any of those folks. I mean they'll have to speak for themselves. There's -- as we've always taken the position, we look at anything and everything. We want things to be a good strategic fit. If things are available, we want it to be either -- or not either, but a combination of geographically synergistic, quality synergistic and accretive from a financial standpoint. And those boxes, all 3 boxes are kind of hard to check right now when you look around the chessboard.
But there are some things out there that we can look at. But again, we're really focused on managing our own portfolio, particularly in markets like this, making sure that we're optimizing our outcomes and optimizing both the productivity and the profitability of the portfolio.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Nathan Martin with StoneX.
Nathan Martin
I had a question on DTA as well. I mean just given the fact that you said the repair/replacement time line could be extended into a year or 2. Just curious, do you see any opportunity to improve logistics or lower transportation or port costs in the meantime?
Charles Eidson
In the meantime, before we get to a repaired DTA? Probably not. I mean that's more of a focus on just getting the tons moved where we can as best we can. On the other side of DTA and during the repair, could there be some opportunities? Yes, I mean, any time you're looking at older equipment that's going to have to be replaced for any reason, you're going to hope to find some opportunities to improve things and whether it's from a throughput capacity standpoint or from a cost reduction. So -- but that will -- that's for future conversations as we actually get into the nuts and bolts of mechanically fixing and replacing the SR.
Nathan Martin
All right. Understood, Andy. I appreciate that. And then maybe looking at CapEx for '27. Guidance falls roughly flat year-over-year. I noticed an updated slide in your deck with kind of the breakdown there, but maybe you can provide a little more detail around the development projects you plan to spend capital on in '27 because I see that's kind of ticked up a little bit there.
Charles Eidson
Yes. I mean some of that is related to existing operations. We do have some refuse impoundment needs in Virginia that will obviously extend the life and help with managing the waste cost at the McClure prep plant, where Deep Mine 41 is handled. So that's obviously something that we're very focused on. Likewise, some potential work at the Kepler prep plant, where Road Fork 52 reports. And Road Fork 52, Deep Mine 41 definitely being at the top of our list as far as the portfolio of mines that we have.
Any development -- any other development, we're looking at other -- kind of our next projects, which are a little bit longer dated, a couple, 3 years out, just doing a little bit of prospective work there, not necessarily committing to a project, but making sure things are moving to the extent where if we want to pursue a project, we're not losing any time. So not a whole lot to report on that just yet.
Nathan Martin
All right. I appreciate that. And then maybe a final question for Dan. Dan, how should we think about the quality mix of what you guys have left to sell here for '26? I think you're roughly 80% committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance, so seemingly a few tons left to put to bed. How should we think about that as we head to the end of the year?
Daniel Horn
Yes, Nate, probably the typical blend. Maybe a little heavier with the low-vol. As Wildcat ramps up, we're producing a little more of that. So I don't think -- probably the same roughly blend. Still a fair half high-vol maybe and maybe the rest mid and low, something like that. But again, with -- going forward -- I'm sorry, going forward, more low. Our plan is and it will happen that we're going to have more low-vol in our mix and more medium-vol as we go forward. That's certainly the plan, and less high-vol. But the rest of the year is pretty well known. It's right in front of us.
Operator
We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would now turn the call over to Andy Eidson for closing remarks.
Charles Eidson
Well, thanks, everyone, for dialing into the call and checking in online. We appreciate your interest in Alpha, and we hope you all have a great weekend.
Operator
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.
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