Conferencia de resultados del 3T 2026 de Live Nation (LYV): la asistencia supera los 60M

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) destacó una asistencia récord, un amplio crecimiento internacional y un mayor dinamismo de Ticketmaster durante su conferencia de resultados del tercer trimestre de 2026. La dirección también reiteró sus previsiones de crecimiento del AOI para todo el año, al tiempo que advirtió sobre los costes previos a la apertura de recintos y los efectos de la combinación de negocios.

Puntos clave

• La asistencia a conciertos en el tercer trimestre superó los 60 millones, lo que representa un aumento interanual de casi el 20%.
• La asistencia internacional aumentó un 29%, con un crecimiento de al menos el 15% en Latinoamérica, Europa y Asia, respectivamente.
• Los espectáculos en estadios generaron más de la mitad del crecimiento global de asistentes, mientras que septiembre fue el mes con mayor actividad en anfiteatros de Norteamérica para Live Nation.
• La dirección prevé ahora que la asistencia para todo el año se aproxime a los 180 millones, impulsada por una mayor tasa de venta de entradas, un menor número de cancelaciones y un volumen más sólido en estadios.
• Ticketmaster sumó más de 20 millones de nuevas entradas netas procedentes de nuevos clientes en lo que va de año, principalmente en mercados internacionales.
• Live Nation reiteró un crecimiento de dos dígitos en el AOI de conciertos para todo el año y elevó sus previsiones para Ticketmaster a un crecimiento del AOI en el rango alto de un solo dígito.

Principales datos financieros y operativos

Evolución operativa y del negocio

El crecimiento de los conciertos fue amplio en términos geográficos. Los anfiteatros norteamericanos mostraron un sólido desempeño, y septiembre se convirtió en el mes con mayor actividad en anfiteatros para la compañía. La asistencia internacional aumentó un 29%, y cada una de las principales regiones internacionales mencionadas por la dirección registró un crecimiento de al menos el 15%.

Los estadios representaron más de la mitad del crecimiento global de asistentes. En Norteamérica, parte del incremento reflejó una programación de eventos más tardía, debido a la gestión logística de Live Nation en torno a la Copa del Mundo. La dirección también señaló que el volumen en estadios cerró con más fuerza de lo previsto inicialmente.

Ticketmaster se benefició de forma directa de la mayor asistencia a conciertos, que representó el 95% de su crecimiento. Además, el negocio sumó más de 20 millones de nuevas entradas netas procedentes de clientes en lo que va de año. Las principales salidas a la venta del tercer trimestre para Harry Style, Bruno Mars, Oasis y Metallica aportaron un fuerte impulso de cara a 2027.

Se prevé que Venue Nation reciba a unos 75 millones de asistentes en todo el mundo en 2026. La dirección indicó que los recintos operados y los de terceros realizaron aportaciones ampliamente comparables al crecimiento global de asistentes, aunque los recintos operados generan mayores beneficios y márgenes por asistente. Los anfiteatros inaugurados recientemente en Estados Unidos, las arenas europeas adquiridas, la oferta prémium y las ventas de patrocinios registraron un buen comportamiento.

Previsiones de la dirección

La dirección prevé que la asistencia a conciertos para todo el año se aproxime a los 180 millones. Este aumento refleja mayores tasas de venta de entradas, menores niveles de cancelación y un volumen en estadios superior al previsto a principios de año.

Live Nation reiteró su expectativa de un crecimiento de dos dígitos en el AOI de conciertos para 2026. Asimismo, la previsión de crecimiento del AOI de Ticketmaster para todo el año se elevó al rango alto de un solo dígito, respaldada por la demanda de conciertos, la captación de clientes y un desempeño más sólido en eventos deportivos, lo que compensó la presión esperada en el mercado secundario de entradas.

La compañía prevé ofrecer más detalles en su Día del Inversor sobre las aperturas de Venue Nation, la inversión en recintos, los costes previos a la apertura, el despliegue de capital, la financiación de socios y las rentabilidades esperadas.

Riesgos y aspectos a vigilar

La expansión de recintos está incrementando los costes previos a la apertura en 2026, y la dirección prevé que estos costes continúen aumentando durante los próximos dos años.

La combinación de negocios también influye en la rentabilidad. Los eventos en estadios suelen conllevar precios de entradas más altos pero márgenes más bajos, mientras que los asistentes a recintos operados por Live Nation generan márgenes superiores a los de recintos de terceros.

El gasto en publicidad prepagada creció a doble dígito hasta el tercer trimestre. La dirección indicó que las amortizaciones contables de fin de año en marketing vinculadas a giras que ya están a la venta para 2027 afectarán a los resultados del cuarto trimestre.

Ticketmaster había previsto con anterioridad presiones sobre el mercado secundario de entradas ante un mayor control normativo. Dicho factor adverso no se ha materializado en el conjunto del año gracias a que el mayor dinamismo del segmento deportivo sirvió de contrapeso.

Puntos destacados de la sesión de preguntas y respuestas con analistas

Los analistas se centraron en gran medida en la rentabilidad de la expansión de Venue Nation. La dirección subrayó que los recintos operados ofrecen una mejor rentabilidad por asistente, aunque la combinación de estadios y el aumento de los costes previos a la apertura deben tenerse en cuenta al evaluar el crecimiento del AOI.

Respecto a la mejora en las previsiones de asistencia, la dirección atribuyó la revisión a una mayor tasa de venta de entradas, menos cancelaciones y un volumen en estadios mejor de lo previsto. Estos factores pueden añadir millones de asistentes en comparación con los planes iniciales.

Las preguntas sobre el cierre de adquisiciones de recintos y la parte del gasto de capital en recintos financiada por socios se aplazaron para el próximo Día del Inversor, donde la dirección planea explicar con mayor detalle el despliegue de capital, las participaciones accionariales y el impacto en la rentabilidad.

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is John, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Live Nation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call.

I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Yong. Thank you, Ms. Yong. You may begin your conference.

Amy Yong

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Live Nation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Joining us today is our President and CEO, Michael Rapino; and our President and CFO, Joe Berchtold.

We would like to remind you that this afternoon's call will contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ, including statements related to the company's anticipated financial performance, business prospects, new developments and similar matters. Please refer to Live Nation's SEC filings, including the risk factors and cautionary statements included in the company's most recent filings on Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K for a description of risks and uncertainties that could impact the actual results.

Live Nation will also refer to some non-GAAP measures on this call. In accordance with the SEC Regulation G, Live Nation has provided definitions of these measures and a full reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release. The release reconciliation can be found under the Financial Information section on Live Nation's website.

With that, we will now take your questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from the line of David Karnovsky with JPMorgan.

Preguntas y respuestas

David Karnovsky

Joe, I wanted to see if you could unpack the Q3 result a bit. It looks like fan count came in even higher than expected. So can you give some color on where you saw that added growth and how it flowed to concerts and ticketing AOI? And can you also just remind us of any preopening expense growth in the quarter?

Joe Berchtold

Thanks, David. Yes, great quarter for concerts with attendance of over $60 million. I think the first time we've had that level of attendance, up almost 20%. Both North America and international doing well. International, in particular, was up 29% in every one of the regions. So Latin America, Europe, Asia, all up at least 15%. So we're seeing consistently strong performance globally. In North America, we had a very good amphitheater, including September being our largest amphitheater month overall.

And then globally, it was a very big stadium quarter. Stadiums drove over half of the global fan growth, up measurably in both North America and internationally. North America, a chunk of that being the timing that we've talked about before, where the stadium timing this year was a bit later than it was in previous years, just given how we had to manage the logistics around the World Cup. So overall, excellent, and that obviously flowed through to the ticketing business. Ticketing business, 95% of their growth was from concerts. So certainly benefited from the great attendance that we had at our shows.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs.

Stephen Laszczyk

Joe and Michael, maybe just digging a bit deeper into the growth at Ticketmaster. It's come in a bit better than expectations over the course of this year. I think you're now calling out high single-digit AOI growth for the full year. Just would be curious if you could talk more about the strength you're seeing play out this year, the durability of those trends and then ultimately, how you would expect to close out the year for Ticketmaster.

Joe Berchtold

Sure. I'll get that started. So first of all, better than expected even in terms of the fan growth in our concert business, which we've now guided towards close to $180 million. So that obviously supports the Ticketmaster business. Ticketmaster has also continued to add a number of clients, particularly internationally with over 20 million net new tickets so far this year. So that continues to perform well. We had flagged a year or so ago that we thought that there was likely to be some headwinds on the secondary side as we really continue to increase the enforcement on the concert secondary, which we expected to reduce that business.

And as we noted, we have some offsets with increased performance on the sports side. So we're not seeing that headwind for the year. So with that, we took up our guidance to now expect high single-digit AOI growth for the year. It's been great year-to-date. Q3 was very strong in part because we had a number of substantial on sales for shows next year, Harry Style, Bruno Mars, Oasis, Metallica, all being substantial on sales in the third quarter. So that's already set us up now with some nice momentum heading into next year.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Brandon Ross with LightShed Partners.

Brandon Ross

First, I just wanted to get a clarification or follow-up on David's question and wanted to hone in on the impact of Venue Nation specifically on your concert numbers. There's a lot of moving pieces there. You're acquiring venues, preopening in others, but the O&O fans should be more profitable. How should investors think about how that all nets out at this point in time?

Joe Berchtold

Yes. As you said, Venue Nation is having a great year. We expect to have about 75 million fans attend our venues worldwide. So we're seeing solid growth from that, continued solid growth as well from third-party fans as we're looking at roughly 20 million fan growth overall. So I would say pretty comparable contribution to our overall fan growth from the year. from both operated and non-operated fans. Clearly, the operated fans are higher profitability per fan, higher margin per fan.

When you look at the overall numbers, the couple of pieces you need to take into account with your math are one is the stadium fans because those are the highest priced tickets will tend to be a lower margin. And then preopening costs that we've talked about, which is just as we're ramping up the venue side, these early years this year and for the next couple of years, we're also ramping up preopening costs. So that's -- that all just needs to get put into the math. And as we get into next week in our Investor Day, we'll lay out more for you guys, the ramp of what we expect in terms of the venue fans as well as the investment overall, including the preopening costs over the next few years.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Cameron Mansson-Perrone with Morgan Stanley.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone

To follow up on Venue Nation, you've acquired a handful of venues this year. Some of those like Milan, I believe, have closed. But could you give us an update on what's closed and what you're expecting in terms of the timing of acquisition closes across some of these markets like Prague, Paris, Santiago, Copenhagen, for example?

Unknown Executive

I think you all know we have an Investor Day next week. we're trying to get today to anything that you want kind of specific around the quarter. But we're going to take you through a great presentation next week and give you much more detail around Venue Nation, what rolls out, AI impact, all the good things you want to know about the next few years on what we're rolling out to build your model. So we'll see you there next week and give you that detail.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Ian Moore with Bernstein Research.

Ian Moore

Just to hone in again on kind of the Venue Nation openings this year in the quarter. You've acquired and obviously opened organically a number of venues. I guess of the ones that are joined this year, still ramping, what's kind of been the biggest, I guess, surprise versus your expectations? And what's driving that? Is it more shows, more spend per fan maybe sponsorship?

Joe Berchtold

I think the main thing that we've seen this year, both of our operated and third party is just the strength of the consumer, right? All year, we've been reading in the press about all the concerns about consumer spending, are they going to keep going to shows? Are they going to keep spending at shows? Will shows close? Will they go on sale well? And we are absolutely seeing continued strong consumer demand globally in all these venues. And you look at some of the amphitheaters we opened here in the U.S., had just about a full slate of shows, performed very well. Premium did well, continue to see strength there, the few arenas we've acquired in Europe, all of them doing well. sponsorship sales on the B2B side continuing to do well. So I wouldn't call out any one of them as being particular, but I would just note the continued strong dynamics on all of the venues.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Kutgun Maral with Evercore ISI.

Kutgun Maral

I had a follow-up on concerts where you had a really strong quarter. If I look at the first 9 months of the year, concerts AOI is up about 4%. So your outlook for double-digit growth implies that the fourth quarter loss narrows by at least $30 million or so versus last year, and I imagine it will narrow meaningfully more than that. I guess with fans now approaching $180 million for the year, that implies about 12% fan growth in Q4. Can you help unpack the main drivers of the implied AOI improvement a bit more for the next quarter?

Joe Berchtold

Yes. I think we've said a number of things over the course of the year. I think we got into a pretty good detail over the first couple of quarters explaining what was going on with the results for each of those quarters and how we saw the full year playing out. I think we've been consistent that we expected to see AOI growth for the full year in concerts hitting double digits. And we reiterated that today. So no change in that overall expectation. I laid out earlier some of the puts and takes that we have. Very strong overall fan growth, strong in both venues we operate as well as third-party venues. The margin and per fan economics can get impacted what type of venue it is sometimes, but I think we've given you the pieces there. And then we've also given you the preopening costs.

The last piece that I would note as being an impact is the marketing expense that gets written off for prepaid advertising at the end of the year. We noted here that through the third quarter, that was up double digits. So you can assume the very good news that our fourth quarter gets impacted by prepaid advertising for tours that are on sale and performing well next year. So that's the best problem in the world to have.

Operator

And our final question comes from the line of Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo.

Steven Cahall

So just wanted to understand the upgrade to fan count growth, I think it's about 3% above what you'd guided to before. Is that upside from your expectation that you're all seeing in the second half? Or is it more that as you've gotten visibility into the year, you're more comfortable upgrading that? Just trying to understand how the business is performing versus your expectation as we roll into next year and if you feel like you have incremental momentum? And then just a housekeeping one, how do we think about the partner share of venue CapEx flowing through the cash flow statement in 2026?

Joe Berchtold

So on the upgrade to the expected attendance, I think it's number one thing as the shows are just consistently doing well. So our sell-through rate is higher this year than it was last year. Our cancellation rate is lower. At the start of the year, we probably would have been planning for those to be in line. So for those to outperform at our business, that can account for millions of incremental fans. I think we've ended up stronger on our stadium volume than we thought early in the year, given what we had to manage through with the World Cup here in the U.S., those would be your 2 largest factors that would have driven the increase.

In terms of how we're managing all of the economics, why don't we save that one for Investor Day, so we can go through in more detail and make sure we're answering all the questions on how the capital is being deployed and what pieces of it are ours versus partners. And what the implications that has for IRRs and rates that we're seeing every year.

Operator

Thank you. And that concludes the question-and-answer session, and that also concludes today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.