Conferencia de resultados del segundo trimestre fiscal de 2027 de Modine (MOD): las ventas de centros de datos aumentan un 95%

Puntos clave

• Las ventas de Modine en el segundo trimestre fiscal de 2027 aumentaron un 35% interanual. Los ingresos de las operaciones continuadas de Data Centers y Commercial HVAC crecieron un 59%.
• Los ingresos de Data Centers aumentaron un 95%, lo que incluye un crecimiento del 132% en la región de las Américas. Los pedidos trimestrales superaron los 1.000 millones de dólares por primera vez, lo que situó la cartera de pedidos en un máximo histórico.
• El EBITDA ajustado aumentó un 31%, hasta un margen del 13,7%, mientras que el BPA ajustado creció un 27%, hasta 1,35 dólares. El margen bruto se redujo en 160 puntos básicos, hasta el 20,7%, debido principalmente a la inflación de los costes de los materiales.
• La dirección prevé para el ejercicio fiscal 2027 unas ventas de las operaciones continuadas de entre 3.100 y 3.200 millones de dólares y un EBITDA ajustado de entre 470 y 500 millones de dólares, ambos datos excluyendo Performance Technologies para el conjunto del ejercicio.
• El margen de EBITDA ajustado de Data Centers se situó en el 15,4%. La dirección prevé una mejora secuencial de entre 100 y 200 puntos básicos en el tercer trimestre fiscal y tiene como objetivo alcanzar el 20% o más en el cuarto trimestre fiscal, a medida que mejoren el volumen, los precios y la recuperación de costes.
• Modine completó la escisión de Performance Technologies y su fusión con Gentherm el 1 de octubre, lo que permite a la compañía centrarse en Data Centers y Commercial HVAC.

Principales datos financieros

Los gastos de venta, generales y administrativos (SG&A) declarados incluyeron 14,1 millones de dólares en gastos directamente relacionados con la escisión de Performance Technologies. El BPA ajustado excluyó 29,5 millones de dólares de gasto fiscal asociado a la reestructuración de entidades jurídicas requerida para la operación.

Evolución comercial y operativa

Data Centers

Data Centers siguió siendo el principal motor de crecimiento de Modine. Las ventas en las Américas aumentaron un 132%, respaldadas por la demanda a hiperescala, mientras que las ventas en EMEA cayeron un 6% debido al calendario de envíos.

El segmento registró su cuarto trimestre consecutivo de pedidos récord, con una entrada trimestral de pedidos que superó los 1.000 millones de dólares por primera vez. Modine también se aseguró un programa con una empresa a hiperescala para suministrar más de 400 millones de dólares en unidades de tratamiento de aire personalizadas hasta finales del año natural 2027.

La compañía contaba con 13 líneas de enfriadoras en funcionamiento y mantuvo su compromiso de alcanzar las 20 para finales del ejercicio fiscal 2027. Asimismo, se estaba iniciando la producción en una tercera planta dedicada a centros de datos en Calgary, mientras que el volumen de producción aumentaba en Franklin, Wisconsin.

La fiabilidad de la cadena de suministro mejoró durante el trimestre. Modine suscribió acuerdos a largo plazo con proveedores clave y registró un 100% de entregas a tiempo desde cada una de sus plantas de enfriadoras tanto en septiembre como en octubre. Sin embargo, los aranceles, la inflación de las materias primas, los transportes urgentes y los precios más altos de los proveedores continuaron presionando la rentabilidad.

Commercial HVAC

Las ventas de Commercial HVAC aumentaron un 23%. Las ventas de HVAC Technologies crecieron un 20%, mientras que las de Heat Transfer Solutions avanzaron un 16%.

La demanda de serpentines por parte de clientes de centros de datos siguió siendo un importante catalizador de crecimiento. La dirección señaló que estaba evaluando su posible papel como proveedor clave de serpentines en la cadena de suministro de un cliente estratégico. Los ingresos por recubrimientos aumentaron un 28%, lo que refleja en parte la demanda de aplicaciones resistentes a la corrosión.

El segmento también está fabricando subconjuntos V-Block para las enfriadoras de Modine y planea suministrar productos adicionales de fabricación interna más adelante en el ejercicio fiscal. La dirección continúa aplicando su modelo operativo 80/20 para priorizar el crecimiento y la expansión del margen.

Separación de la cartera

Modine completó la escisión de Performance Technologies y su fusión con Gentherm el 1 de octubre. A partir del tercer trimestre fiscal, los resultados históricos de dicho negocio se presentarán como operaciones discontinuadas.

La compañía recibió 199 millones de dólares de Gentherm y utilizó los fondos para amortizar deuda. La dirección prevé que la ratio de apalancamiento disminuya aún más hacia el final del ejercicio fiscal.

Previsiones de la dirección

Las perspectivas excluyen los ingresos y los beneficios de Performance Technologies para el conjunto del ejercicio fiscal.

La dirección prevé un crecimiento de los beneficios de Data Centers superior al 80% para el ejercicio fiscal 2027. Proyecta una mejora secuencial del margen de entre 100 y 200 puntos básicos en el tercer trimestre fiscal, seguida de otro incremento en el cuarto trimestre, periodo en el que el segmento tiene como objetivo alcanzar un margen de EBITDA ajustado de al menos el 20%.

En cuanto a Commercial HVAC, la dirección prevé un crecimiento de dos dígitos en los beneficios y una mejora incremental del margen de EBITDA ajustado durante el segundo semestre. Se espera que la expansión del margen en el conjunto del año sea de aproximadamente 100 puntos básicos.

Riesgos y aspectos a vigilar

• Data Centers registró un impacto adverso en los costes de materiales de aproximadamente 375 puntos básicos en el segundo trimestre fiscal debido a aranceles, inflación, logística y mayores precios pagados para asegurar componentes.
• La recuperación de los márgenes avanza a un ritmo más lento de lo previsto inicialmente debido a las continuas subidas de costes de los proveedores y al desfase temporal entre los mayores costes y la repercusión de precios a los clientes.
• La rápida expansión de las fábricas, la mano de obra y los proveedores genera riesgos de ejecución. La dirección identificó el cumplimiento de los plazos de entrega a los clientes como una prioridad clave.
• El flujo de caja libre fue negativo en el primer semestre, ya que Modine financió existencias, capital de trabajo y la expansión de capacidad. El ejercicio fiscal 2027 incluye además unos costes de escisión en efectivo estimados de entre 30 y 50 millones de dólares y más de 70 millones de dólares en pagos en efectivo de impuestos superiores a lo habitual.
• Las previsiones revisadas incluyen entre 10 y 15 millones de dólares en costes no absorbidos temporales (stranded costs) tras la escisión de Performance Technologies. La dirección prevé que estos recursos sean absorbidos por el crecimiento de Data Centers de cara al próximo ejercicio fiscal.
• Las perspectivas para el segundo semestre de Commercial HVAC incorporan cierta cautela en torno a la demanda de calefacción dependiente de la climatología, las salidas planificadas de la cartera y las medidas de reestructuración 80/20.

Puntos destacados de la sesión de preguntas y respuestas con analistas

Recuperación del margen de Data Centers: La dirección atribuyó la mejora prevista para el segundo semestre a un mayor volumen de producción y a la recuperación de los costes de los materiales. Identificó un potencial de mejora de al menos 250 puntos básicos procedente de las negociaciones de precios con clientes ya concluidas o en curso.

Cartera de pedidos y visibilidad de la demanda: La dirección señaló que la demanda de equipos a corto plazo está vinculada a instalaciones que ya cuentan con permisos y están en fase de construcción. La demanda de enfriadoras, unidades de tratamiento de aire, unidades de distribución de refrigerante y otros productos para centros de datos sigue superando la capacidad disponible.

Estabilización de la cadena de suministro: Se han cerrado acuerdos a largo plazo con proveedores clave de ventiladores y evaporadores, mientras que las negociaciones con los de compresores continuaban abiertas. La dirección indicó que estos acuerdos ofrecen una mayor visibilidad del suministro que 90 días atrás.

Selección de clientes: Dadas las limitaciones de capacidad, Modine está priorizando a clientes estratégicos en función de sus recursos financieros, su tecnología y su alineación con su hoja de ruta de productos. La dirección afirmó que, por lo general, evita a los clientes de centros de datos más pequeños con balances más débiles, ya que la demanda de sus principales clientes es suficiente.

Flexibilidad del inventario: Aproximadamente entre el 70% y el 80% de un producto es escalable a distintos proyectos, y solo el 20% al 30% final se personaliza. La dirección añadió que la mayor parte del inventario permanece en forma de materia prima, lo que reduce la exposición específica a cada proyecto en caso de que cambien los calendarios de los clientes.

Inversiones de capital y conversión de efectivo: La dirección espera que las inversiones de capital disminuyan hacia un nivel más normalizado en el ejercicio fiscal 2028, aunque prevé un gasto anual superior a 100 millones de dólares para respaldar el mantenimiento y el crecimiento futuro. Los objetivos más detallados para los ejercicios fiscales 2028 y 2029 se reservaron para el Día del Analista e Inversor de la compañía.

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Modine's Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Kathy Powers, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations.

Kathy Powers

Hello, and good morning. Welcome to our conference call to discuss Modine's second quarter fiscal 2027 results. I'm joined by Neil Brinker, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mick Lucareli, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The slides that we'll be using with today's presentation are available on the Investor Relations section of our website, modine.com.

On Slide 3 of that deck is our notice regarding forward-looking statements. This call will contain forward-looking statements as outlined in our earnings release as well as with our company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Neil.

Neil Brinker

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I'm going to start out with the segment updates and then turn it over to Mick to review the financial results for the quarter. Let's jump in. Starting with data centers, we delivered another impressive quarter with revenues increasing 95% from the prior year. We achieved our fourth consecutive quarter of record orders, exceeding $1 billion in quarterly order intake for the first time in our history.

Strong demand has pushed our backlog to another historic high. In addition, we recently received a major new program award with a strategic hyperscaler customer. Through this partnership, we will supply more than $400 million of custom air handling units through calendar year 2027 to cool next-generation data centers. We have continually added manufacturing capacity to support the surging demand for our air handling products since acquiring the Scott Springfield business in 2024. To that end, we are currently launching production at our third dedicated data center facility in Calgary and are actively increasing throughput at our facility in Franklin, Wisconsin. Demand continues to be incredibly strong across our entire data center cooling portfolio, and we are strategically using 80/20 principles to manage this growth. Regarding our overall capacity expansion, we remain firmly on track.

We currently have 13 chiller lines up and running and remain fully committed to reaching 20 operational lines by the end of the fiscal year. A massive part of executing this capacity expansion has been stabilizing our supply chain, and I'm pleased to report that we have made significant progress during this quarter. Over the past few months, the reliability of our supply chain has steadily improved, and we have entered into multiple LTAs with key suppliers to lock in volume for critical components in 2027.

We've also continued to share our future volume requirements with our suppliers so that they can confidently increase their own capacity but their expansions take time to ramp. This supply-demand imbalance is leading to higher prices incremental to the materials inflation and tariffs. We are working on cost sharing and pass-through mechanics, but that takes time as well. In addition, we occasionally get surprised by other smaller disruptions. While these may not result in material production impacts, they can still create delays in short-term inefficiencies. Furthermore, we continue to leverage the specialized capabilities of our Commercial HVAC segment to support the rapid growth of our data center business. Commercial HVAC is already successfully producing V-Block subassemblies for our chillers and recently passed testing for another critical component, officially adding them to our qualified supplier panel.

Scaling our supply chain as we expand capacity to meet demand presents a number of challenges that need to be continually managed. That said, we are in a much stronger position than we were 90 days ago, and I'm incredibly proud of what the team has accomplished. Please turn to Slide 5. The Commercial HVAC segment also delivered a strong quarter with revenues increasing 23% from the prior year. Our coils business continues to benefit from higher sales to data center customers.

Our CHVAC segment has a significant opportunity to drive incremental growth in the data center market, and we are currently executing on several strategic fronts. First, we have been selling coils directly to various external data center cooling companies for some time, which was a primary driver of our revenue growth over the past several quarters. Second, we are capitalizing on a developing trend where hyperscalers are getting involved in downstream sourcing, specifically identifying qualified Tier 2 suppliers for custom data center cooling products. We are currently in active discussions with one of our strategic customers to become a key coils provider within their supply chain.

This represents a major incremental opportunity for our Commercial HVAC business that could lead to significant future orders. Additionally, our coil sales are creating a strong pull-through effect for our coatings business as many customers request specialized coatings to prevent corrosion in harsh environments. Our coatings business had an outstanding quarter with revenues up 28% from the prior year. Finally, CHVAC has multiple opportunities to support our own data center business.

As I mentioned, we're currently producing V-Block subassemblies for our chillers and plan to start supplementing our current supply needs with additional CHVAC manufactured products later this fiscal year. These are exciting opportunities that should drive revenue growth in the near term, fully supported by our disciplined 80/20 focus. We are also seeing excellent growth opportunities elsewhere in the segment. Specifically, we are expanding our product line for portable heating products that we acquired as part of the LB White transaction last year. Overall, there's a wealth of opportunities for both revenue growth and margin expansion within the CHVAC segment. Please turn to Slide 6.

As you know, we successfully closed on the spin-off of our Performance Technologies business and merger with Gentherm on October 1 as planned. Preparing for this transaction of this scale was a massive undertaking for both teams, and I'm pleased to report that the initial phases of the transition are going smoothly. I want to extend my sincere gratitude to our internal team who tirelessly manage the complex work streams required to execute this transaction as well as to our external advisers.

Gentherm has been an outstanding partner throughout this process, and we are confident they will provide a fantastic home for that business. For Modine, this milestone represents a clean strategic separation that allows us to focus 100% of our resources on our highest growth, highest margin thermal management opportunities. Finally, I'd like to remind everyone of our upcoming Analyst and Investor Day planned for November 18. We are holding the event in Chicago with a live webcast for those not planning to attend in person. We will provide an in-depth review of the company's strategy, including growth opportunities for both segments, along with our new long-term financial targets. It should be a great event. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mick.

Michael Lucareli

Thanks, Neil, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 7 to review the Q2 segment results. Beginning with data centers, I want to highlight the exceptional rate of revenue and earnings growth, which continues to outpace the rest of the market with a 95%, increase in sales. Americas sales grew 132%, driven by strong demand from hyperscale customers and EMEA sales decreased 6%, mainly due to the timing of shipments. Adjusted EBITDA grew 66%, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.4%. As I discussed last quarter, we reported a nice sequential margin improvement from the first quarter. However, this was somewhat lower than we anticipated. On the positive side, we continue to see a lower impact from the fixed cost absorption and expansion costs. This was relatively in line with our expectations.

However, the supply chain and material impacts were larger and are lingering longer than we had expected. These can be grouped into a few key baskets, including logistics with a negative impact from tariffs, raw material inflation and higher prices paid to our suppliers to secure volume. We're working on commercial actions for current and future programs to address these additional costs, and we're confident that we can recover these costs.

We remain excited about the overall positive momentum in this segment and anticipate further margin improvements through the second half of the year. Based on our updated revenue and margin outlook, we anticipate that the Data Center segment will generate earnings growth in excess of 80% this year. Please turn to Slide 8 to review Commercial HVAC. Commercial HVAC also delivered strong revenue growth with a 23% increase in sales.

HVAC Technologies sales increased 20% and Heat Transfer Solutions sales improved 16%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 22%, while the adjusted EBITDA margin was flat to the prior year at 15.1%. Similar to the Data Center segment, we anticipated a higher margin in the second quarter. The major driver of the flat margin was the mix of product sales along with higher material and tariff costs. Commercial HVAC remains on track for the year as the leadership team focuses on driving both growth and margin expansion through 80/20 initiatives.

We expect double-digit earnings growth and incremental improvements in the adjusted EBITDA margin during the second half of the fiscal year. Please turn to Slide 9. For Performance Technologies, I'll keep my comments relatively brief given the recently completed spin-off and merger with Gentherm. Sales were relatively flat with Heavy-Duty up 11% and On-Highway down 5%. Adjusted EBITDA declined 3% from the prior year and adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.2%. These results were generally in line with our expectations. As Neil covered, the separation plan and merger with Gentherm was completed on October 1. We are very proud of the improvement made these past few years by the Performance Technologies business and its legacy for Modine. Gentherm and Modine are a fantastic combination with a bright future, and we wish them all the best.

Now let's review the total company results. Please turn to Slide 10. Second quarter sales increased 35%. And I want to point out that if we just look at our remaining data center and commercial HVAC segments, revenue growth was 59%.

Gross margin declined by 160 basis points to 20.7%, driven by lower margins in all 3 segments and largely due to material cost inflation. Although we continue to invest in incremental SG&A to support growth, we're controlling the spending as a percentage of sales. Reported SG&A also includes $14.1 million of expenses directly related to the spin-off of the Performance Technologies business.

I'm pleased to report that adjusted EBITDA increased $32.4 million or 31%, resulting in a 13.7% adjusted EBITDA margin. As I previously discussed, the actual margin was somewhat lower than we anticipated, but there continues to be sequential improvements as we launch more volume and recover material costs. In Q2, there was a 150 basis point improvement from the first quarter, and we expect to see further improvements in the second half of the year.

Adjusted earnings per share was $1.35, 27% higher than the prior year. This excludes $29.5 million of income tax expense related to legal entity restructuring steps required to spin off the Performance Technologies business. Now moving to cash flow metrics. Please turn to Slide 11. Free cash flow was negative in the second quarter, primarily due to the working capital and capital investments in data centers, along with expenses related to the Performance Technologies spin-off. As expected, we're deploying cash for working capital to support our growing data center customer demand and protect our production from supply chain constraints. In addition, we incurred $27.7 million of cash payments, primarily for restructuring and disposition-related costs.

Lastly, cash taxes were higher than normal due to some unique situations and significant customer LTA payments. Net debt was $211 million higher than the prior fiscal year-end, but we received approximately $200 million (sic) [ $199 million ] from Gentherm on October 1, which was used to repay debt. Based on our current outlook for earnings and cash flow, we expect the leverage ratio will decrease further by year-end.

Now let's turn to Slide 12 for our fiscal '27 outlook. As announced in our press release, we're updating our fiscal '27 guidance to reflect our higher revenue outlook for our remaining businesses and the successful spin-off of the Performance Technologies business. Starting with the third quarter, we'll report historical results for this business as discontinued operations. So our current outlook now excludes Performance Technologies revenue and earnings for the full year. Table is available in the appendix providing a recast of financial information for net sales and adjusted EBITDA by quarter for fiscal '26 and year-to-date fiscal '27. We expect total company sales to be in the range of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion, representing a 50% to 55% increase from the prior year, excluding Performance Technologies revenue from both periods.

We expect data center sales to grow 80% to 90% and expect commercial HVAC sales to grow 10% to 15% from the prior year. I want to highlight that both of these ranges represent an increase from our segment outlook last quarter. With revenue expectations increasing, we're still expecting continued margin improvement in the back half of the year. However, we believe that margins will improve at a lower rate than originally anticipated, mostly due to ongoing cost increases across the supply base.

Given the revenue outlook and ongoing improvements in margins, I'm pleased to say that we expect fiscal '27 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $470 million to $500 million, representing a growth rate in excess of 50%.

Again, this outlook excludes Performance Technologies from the full fiscal year. From a free cash flow perspective, we expect to generate positive cash flow for the full year, making up for the use of cash in the first 2 quarters. And as I previously mentioned, we received approximately $200 million (sic) [ $199 million ] of cash on October 1. And while it is not included in our free cash flow calculation, it was used to repay debt. And to wrap up, we remain excited about our fiscal '27 outlook with outstanding revenue and earnings growth. Very few companies are generating earnings growth in excess of 50%.

And I'm proud to say this would represent our fifth consecutive year of adjusted EBITDA growth in excess of 20%. We're looking forward to our next chapter as Modexus Solutions as we're truly a new company and have an exciting future to share with our shareholders. As Neil mentioned, we're holding an Analyst and Investor Day on November 18. Neil and the entire team are looking forward to providing a new strategic update on this next phase of our transformation, along with an exciting financial outlook for fiscal '28 and for fiscal '29. With that, Neil and I will take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

The first question is from Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson.

Preguntas y respuestas

Matt Summerville

Can we maybe start with data center margins? To keep it easy, if you did roughly 15% EBITDA in the first half of the year, sort of implies you need to get to somewhere in the low 20s, let's say, in the second half of the year if data center profits are set to rise by 80% as indicated in the deck and in prepared remarks. Can you specifically spell out what gets you there? Why not maybe derisk that cadence more meaningfully? And I guess, why should investors feel that this is a dependable sort of outlook? And can you bridge how much of this gap between, say, 15% and 21% first half, second half? -- how much of that is sort of solved by price capture? And if you can comment on the cadence between the 2 quarters, that would be helpful. And then I have one follow-up.

Michael Lucareli

Matt, it's Mick. So as we look at second half of the year, we continue to expect a step-up each quarter sequentially. You're right in the high-level math based on our public comments there. Q3, we'd expect to see 100 to 200 basis point sequential improvement and then another step up in Q4 with the target of getting to 20% or above in Q4. And 2 major drivers. So we've talked a lot about first half of the year around labor and overhead. Those have been, as expected, those were coming in much in line with our outlook for Q2.

So as we talked about, materials has been a significant increase. And in the quarter, that was about 375 basis points. So when we look to the second half of the year, there's 2 big drivers. One, volume is a big one. The conversion rate on incremental volume is quite high, way above, as you can imagine, at a variable level. So more volume we're putting through is coming through at a much higher margin than our targets of being at a 20% level. Secondly, we are going to recover material costs. And we have contracts in place. We already have commercial negotiations. So that recovery of material cost is going to improve our material margin. And again, if you just look at first half, second half, again, Q2 was 375 basis points at a minimum between all of our material cost increases. This was kind of the headwind or the penalty in the quarter.

Matt Summerville

And then I'm sure you guys internally have been talking about potential election outcomes. And I would imagine if I don't ask, it's going to get asked on the call. But does this outcome change the shape of your growth trajectory or the fundamental thermal backdrop for you in the United States? And putting that aside for a second, just given that we're looking at a stock price sub-$100, how are you thinking about potential aggressive share buybacks given the state of your balance sheet?

Neil Brinker

Matt, this is Neil. Yes, certainly, we've all thought about the outcome of the elections, and I don't think there's really a big surprise here in terms of what shook out last night. I know that we're seeing a robust, healthy backlog that goes well beyond 2 to 3 years, and there's an immediate demand even today.

So there's already many data centers that are in flight that have been permitted that are going to require multiple years of building and preparing. So those things are kind of in position and in place. For us, I believe that we're going to see even increased demand from this because as you remember, when we broke into the data center market, we broke in as a sustainability play. We broke in as our first data center customers were the only customers that offered a carbon-neutral data center.

And when you offer a carbon-neutral data center, you have to have the best power use effectiveness and the best water use effectiveness. You have to be able to ensure that you are conserving energy and water. And that has been our niche and that has been our play. And I believe going forward with data centers, particularly in many local communities here in the United States, that that's going to be important for people to understand that you're using the best technology in order to drive down energy costs and drive down water usage.

That's our play. That's our differentiation. That's how we broke into the market. I think that's going to continue to trend that way.

Michael Lucareli

And Matt, on the buyback, we're -- like everybody this morning, we're digesting the news to the elections and how the markets reacted to the data center space. But to your question, at the current share price, that will obviously be a big topic with our Board as soon as we meet with them. More to come there, but that will clearly be a topic with our Board.

Operator

The next question is from Noah Kaye from Oppenheimer.

Noah Kaye

Yes, I would like to follow up on the margin trajectory as well. Mick, I think you said maybe 100 to 200 bps step-up is what you contemplated for 3Q on data center margins. Is that correct?

Michael Lucareli

Yes, correct.

Noah Kaye

Yes. So that would imply 4Q margins materially above 20%. I want to confirm that. And I understand what is sort of the -- if any, outsized margin benefit you get in that quarter. I don't know if there's a timing that's anticipated on material recoveries. Or is that kind of really the right level to think about as a jumping off point going into '28. Maybe you can comment on that. And maybe even following up on that point, the visibility you now have into the cost base through some of these LTAs that I know have been a big lift for the company over the last couple of months.

Michael Lucareli

Yes. I'll go first, Noah. There's a lot to what you said there, but I'll try to hit it all. Yes, the -- so Q4 would be another sizable lift from if we're in a 16.5%, 17.5% margin in Q3 and Q4. The big driver in Q4 besides continued improvement in our material cost ratios is volume. So if we look at second half implied volume that's kind of in a 80%, 90% range Q3, I would see in another like 80% type growth rate. And obviously, Q4 gets us 90% plus. So that level of volume going through is a big lift.

Also, the more programs that we are quoting, launching and so forth are all adjusting pricing real time. What I kind of want to make sure we cover with all of you is when we've talked the last few quarters, we started seeing some of the a few key components, and we talked to all of you about that, and we've gone back to our customers to recover those. At the same time, there's just general inflation we're seeing across aluminum, copper, steel, 30% core Q1, 30% Q2. These are things we didn't necessarily anticipate in the agreement. So they've had to go back.

And Neil can comment, our customers are very supportive about recovering those. So we have a little bit of a lag effect on that element. But then certainly, as we're quoting new programs and receiving new POs, we're negotiating that upfront, which is a combination of tariffs, raw material costs and then purchase component cost. That's what -- so that's the impact in Q2, but the opportunity set for us as we go into Q3 and Q4.

Noah Kaye

And to tie into that -- I'm sorry, Neil, I don't know if we were going to add anything else. But to tie into that, I mean, these 4 quarters of record orders, your book-to-bill was greater than 2 this quarter. I guess, how is the better pricing that you're talking about embedded in the orders in the backlog? And can we just get a sense of where this backlog coverage really puts you both for the back half and even into '28?

Neil Brinker

So just to build a little bit on what Mick was saying, obviously, when we negotiate these LTAs and we negotiate these program wins, we want to make sure that we can open up the agreements when there are things that are material in terms of margins. And we have been able to display that willingness to work with our customers, and that's where you're going to see some of this improvement in the back half to Mick's point. Certainly, to your other question, there'll be a -- this will be very clear in the IR Day update for FY '28 and '29 -- next week, 2 weeks.

Michael Lucareli

Mind that.

Noah Kaye

We're looking forward to it like it's next week. But I know there's a bunch of others with questions, so I'll turn it over...

Operator

The next question is from Chris Moore from CJS Securities.

Christopher Moore

Obviously, lots of noise out there. Maybe just kind of how you would characterize 2 things from a customer kind of standpoint. One would be what you're hearing in terms of from availability from a cash flow perspective to build? And two is the kind of certainty in terms of the final geographic destination? Is it still -- is that still up in the air on a lot of the work that you're doing at this stage?

Neil Brinker

I think for the work that we're considering that beyond '28 into '29 and 2030, certainly, there's some of that in terms of locations and exact size of gigawatt campuses, there's a little uncertainty there, but we're working through that in terms of how to close that gap. But in the immediate 24 months, it's there. Remember, Chris, we're one of the last products to go into the data center. So we can see a site that's been permitted and they start the construction of the site and that can take anywhere from 12 to 18 months. And then you start to bring our equipment in. So the equipment that we're preparing our inventories around that we're going to be building over the next several years are for sites that are permitted and are in place.

So more of the backlog that we're working on in terms of size as well as locations where that may change from state to state, which we have seen that happen in the past, in size. They continue to get bigger rather than smaller. That's beyond 2 years from now, Chris.

Christopher Moore

Got you. Very helpful. And maybe just -- I know that with Gentherm, there's still, I think, $20 million to $25 million additional costs in the second half for the transition services agreement. Are these costs included in the EBITDA estimate or they'll be adjusted out?

Michael Lucareli

Great question. In our guide is about full year and when we do disc ops, and we remove Performance Technologies from the full year, there would be about $10 million to $15 million of temporary stranded costs. Obviously, we had PT for half the year. But if you just back them out in our guide, that includes that. And when we first announced the spin-off, we said we didn't anticipate much in the way of stranded, and we still believe that where those costs will be reabsorbed is through the data center growth. So in other words, all those resources we have working on Performance Technologies at the rate of growth we're adding on data centers, those will be fully absorbed by next fiscal year.

It's just more of an internal accounting. But to be clear, in this interim period with now with PT gone $10 million to $15 million, and it's really a half a year's impact in the second half, about, I'd say, $7 million to $8 million here that we need to redeploy into the data center business. Hope that answers your question.

Operator

The next question is from David Tarantino from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

David Tarantino

Maybe following up on the data center margins. Can you just take us through how these headwinds progressed through the quarter? I'm particularly thinking back to last quarter's commentary around margins improving in June. So can you give us some color on how this evolved through the quarter and through October as you locked down more supply and worked on price with your customers?

Michael Lucareli

Yes. Neil can add more color, David, that I would say that -- again, I go back to what we talked about last quarter was what's really started was we were surprised by some short shipments of a few key components. And Neil talked quite a bit about working through those. What's continued to happen, I'd say, through the quarter, it would be other suppliers coming forward either with shortages or their own volume challenges. And then what comes with that, what -- when I talk about material costs, we have expedited freight and logistics and tariffs. So a couple of things that what's happening as the quarter continued to go on. And I think Matt Summerville had asked a good question. We're trying to get in front of it and make sure why we talked about reducing our outlook for the rate of margin improvement is expecting that this will linger longer. But in some cases, we had some sheet metal suppliers or something that don't -- weren't hitting their deliveries.

Other cases, we're getting the deliveries that we asked for, but they show up on a Friday instead of a Monday or we're shipping parts that we have in Europe over to North America, so we can utilize them. So a lot of inefficiencies getting the product in the door to keep the lines moving. And I know it's a lot, but it isn't just that, hey, someone called us and we are negotiating a price increase or an LTA that we should've known about. I think it's just almost the day-to-day evolution. Neil, any other color?

Neil Brinker

No, I think that's good color. I mean, ultimately, we have a decision to make. When we have these challenges in the operations environment with the supply chain, you can look at your customer and apologize and not do anything or you can react to it and try to continue to delight your customers. And sometimes that decision to react to it and do the best you can to meet their commitments and our expectations to meet our delivery schedules is it gets quite costly. When we have to -- when we have key components that are sourced locally and they fall through, we have to then use their international sources to get the components in. And to double that, you expedite the freight at the same time. So there are many instances where we had some suppliers prior to the LTAs that were not able to meet their commitments locally, we had to go with international shipments with expedited freight in order for us to keep the delivery schedules.

David Tarantino

Okay. Great. And then maybe could you give us some color on the pricing discussions in data center? My understanding is there were pass-throughs for inflation, but securing supply at higher cost is somewhat unique. So what does the pricing look like in the LTAs from your suppliers? Where are the discussions at this point with your customers on price? And how much more work is there to do on these discussions?

Neil Brinker

Well, I think the important piece here, David, is that it's not fixed. We have the -- we've got the agreement with our customers that pricing is variable, especially when we have challenges in the metals inflation as well as tariffs, expedited freight costs, those kind of things, there's a willingness to have a conversation and there's a willingness to help us in terms of making sure we can meet their delivery commitments and help share the costs in order to do that. That is a very -- those are very active conversations that take place on a sometimes weekly basis with some of our biggest customers.

Operator

The next question is from Neal Burk from UBS.

Neal Burk

On the commercial HVAC guide, you guys have just done 2 quarters of pretty good double-digit organic sales growth. But I think the guide assumes a step down in the back half. Can you elaborate on that? Do comps get harder? Or is there some timing? Or is this just conservatism?

Michael Lucareli

Yes. With the heating season, one thing that was positive here and helped with HVAC in the really strong Q2, we've had a really good preseason for heating, preseason orders. So we are being a little bit cautious that for those that have been with us a while, we always -- you don't know what unfortunately, weather is going to be. So there's one element of we try to go in with a relatively conservative heat outlook. Secondly, the -- that new leadership team is really going through a heavy lift on 80/20, and we have planned exits, cost reductions and attrition, much like, again, people have been with Modine for a while, we'll see because also implied in there is a pretty healthy second half margin lift.

Again, from the first half, I think we'd probably be looking at, at least 300, 400 basis point plus improvement in the second half of the year, and part of that is from the 80/20 activities, along with price recovery on material costs because there was also a little bit of that in the HVAC segment for Q2.

Neal Burk

Yes. I want to follow up on that. I think I think last quarter, you were pointing to kind of maybe 200 basis points of margin expansion climate for the year. And so can you kind of update where we are now relative to that? I mean you kind of guided back half, but was 2Q how much worse than you expected? And what's the sort of ramp in the back half? How do you kind of break that out between cost recovery and price?

Michael Lucareli

Yes. I see the full year being up, call it, 100 basis points or so. When we look to the back half of the year, I expect a 50 to 100 basis points year-over-year improvement in Q3 and then another big lift in Q4. And again, where -- in as far as Q2, we were a little bit light, and that was also majority was around material costs and mostly raw material costs on the coils business, really strong order intake, in fact, a lot of growth driven by data center business, but that's a lag in timing recovery of like copper, aluminum and steel.

Operator

The next question is from Brian Drab from William Blair.

Brian Drab

Can you touch on that opportunity that you have with the data center customer within the coils business, the timing of that and how significant could that be for that segment?

Neil Brinker

Yes, that is definitely significant. We're going to have to do a lot of 80/20 work there to ensure that we're using the appropriate capacity for this key customer. Definitely is significant in terms of the revenue growth. And it would be helping them supply -- helping them secure supply so that they can continue to navigate the shortages in the supply chain. We've talked about fans as a shortage in the supply chain. You've heard lots of companies talk about that. We've talked about things like evaporators and compressors.

Coils is now bumping up as one of the one of the areas where they're seeing a severe shortage in the industry and the fact that we're the largest independent coil producer in the world is in our advantage. So we have a lot of opportunity there, and we can partner with them, and we are partnering with them. That will be a significant mix shift in that business going forward.

Brian Drab

Can you say what the specific application is for the coil? Like what type of system or units would be...

Neil Brinker

Liquid cooling, rig or heat exchangers, liquid cooling for direct ship.

Brian Drab

Okay. Got it. And then you just mentioned the shortages of fans and other components. Can you sum up at this point, like how many suppliers are an issue? How many parts are an issue? This has been a very acute problem throughout the last 6 to 12 months. But is it still an acute problem? Or has it kind of broadened?

Neil Brinker

Well it hasn't broadened. It was for the -- you have limited supply with 4 key components of those 4 key components fans. We have now entered into an LTA with one of the fan suppliers. We've also entered into long-term purchase agreements a blanket PO is out 12 months for a second. So we have comfort now that we will be able to get the requested supply that we didn't have that comfort 90 days ago. With the evaporator suppliers, we've entered into an LTA. With the compressor supplier, we're in negotiations, and I would expect to close an LTA on that relatively soon. It's just a matter of how much more capacity that they need to add and how many more plants they need to add to support us. So what we see now in coils, obviously, the last, and we're vertically integrated with coils. So that's a nonissue for us. It is for others.

So with these LTAs, we have targeted the ones that were critical a quarter back that had caused a lot of disruption. And as we enter into these LTAs and we enter into these agreements with our suppliers, this is beginning to stabilize around the strategic supply chain. Now you still have the other suppliers that need to deliver. Those are more acute in terms of an issue where you kind of work through it, maybe it delays you a week or maybe it delays you a couple of weeks, but you can -- you have an alternative source that you can ramp up quicker, much quicker because they don't have the same level of technology. So that for us is a different challenge. But the first and the most important thing to do is to lock up your suppliers that are strategic and then we'll work on the ones that are more of an acute issue throughout the weeks and months.

Brian Drab

Okay. And then if I could just ask, now that you have those LTAs in place, you have an understanding of the pricing that goes along with those. And I guess this is asking you to maybe comment on a time period further out than you want to. But in the past, we've talked about the potential for EBITDA margin for the data center business to be well north of 20% once you get to some sort of steadier state. Is that still where you're trying to drive the business towards? What is the goal for EBITDA margin for this business?

Neil Brinker

Yes, that's absolutely what we're trying to drive the business for. But remember, we are in the middle of a ramp. We are ramping products. We're ramping new launches. We're ramping chiller lines. We're ramping air handling units. We're adding $100-plus million of capacity and expanding in a way that we've never done in the past. So there's going to be challenges with the ramp in terms of margin compression with all the things that we talked about. We're what, 13 lines into the 20 lines for chillers now complete. You go back a quarter ago, it was half of that. So by the end of the calendar year, we'll have the capacity in place and you'll start to work through these inefficiencies. But there's often margin compression in the middle of the ramp, and that's exactly what we're in to keep up with the enormous demand that we have for the most efficient product in the industry.

Operator

The next question is from Tim Wojs from Baird.

Timothy Wojs

Maybe just on the data center guidance, the midpoint going from 70% growth at the midpoint to what's 85% now. How much of that is volume versus price?

Michael Lucareli

In terms of majority of that is volume driven, Tim.

Timothy Wojs

Okay. And so I guess when you're thinking about kind of the commercial actions that you need to do to kind of recover the higher component costs, I mean, how much of that have you already went and gotten versus how much you still need to get? And I guess, what is embedded in the fourth quarter? Because I mean, there's still a pretty sizable ramp from Q3 to Q4. And I'm just trying to kind of understand your ultimate visibility to that at this point.

Michael Lucareli

Let me try to answer it the best way I can. I would say based on -- so 2 things we have happening at any one time. We have our 2 major long-term agreements with a couple of hyperscalers, one we announced last year. That had well-defined pricing mechanisms in there. And as Neil said, they're open to it. And in some cases, we didn't -- both sides didn't contemplate some of the things we saw coming. So we're working through those now, and there's a lag effect on getting those approved then into the system, the invoice and so forth.

The second element is every single new discussion we're having commercially, Neil and I are having the teams ensure all of this is upfront and such that incremental programs are addressing even like if it's 6 months between award and completion, we want to be sure that if there's inflation between us getting award for a new site that we can adjust that price before we ship the product. And from what I can kind of see just on pricing we've agreed to and passing through, I see at least like a 250 basis point lift for us on discussions we've already had with customers on current activities. So I hope that gives you a little bit of transparency. And then obviously, new programs, new POs where our full intent is to get those priced upfront when those ship.

Timothy Wojs

Okay. Okay. Yes, that's helpful. So when you think about you're not necessarily guiding to put words in your mouth, but what's implied is probably a 450, 500 basis point improvement Q3 to Q4 in EBITDA margins. Part of that is price that you do kind of have visibility to and there's a lag to it. And then parts of it will also just be kind of volume growth and better efficiencies within the existing lines. It's really like those 2 main factors.

Michael Lucareli

Yes, it's a good summary. I mentioned a few minutes ago, I see in Q2 a 375 basis point material headwind. And then I mentioned to you that what I can see in our system is at least, call it, 250 basis points catch-up right now that we've gone and then you have new programs. So the other thing, right, we have to get in front of and it's a little bit of what we're talking about is then make sure we're factoring in what could come that we're not aware of yet as far as asks from the supply base. And I think -- I'll let Neil comment. I think we're well in front of that. I'm not raising that because it's a message we're trying to send is that if we have all this catch-up, then we have to make sure we don't get surprised with any incremental price increases from our supply base. I think where we're at today, I feel good about. Neil, I don't know if...

Timothy Wojs

Okay. Okay. And then I guess when you think about -- just -- I guess, when you're thinking about the supply chain itself, -- is there a way to just to give us some color on just how supply has tracked for you over the last few months? I mean, are you -- I guess, for Q3, are you kind of operating at that margin level today in terms of the data center business? And are you seeing like weekly or monthly sequential improvement in supply? Or is it still pretty kind of whack-a-mole?

Neil Brinker

We have seen improvement. September was the first time that we hit 100% on-time delivery from each of our chiller plants. October was the second time we hit 100% on-time delivery for our chiller plants. And that's because of some of the stability we've got back in the supply chain.

Operator

The next question is from Jeff Van Sinderen from B. Riley.

Jeff Van Sinderen

You sort of just answered part of my question. I was going to ask you, though, have you seen any customers pull forward demand with more urgency considering the political backdrop?

Neil Brinker

We have seen a lot of that. I don't know if it's completely driven by the political backdrop or if it's more driven by just the breakneck speed that we see around the competitive forces with AI and high-performance compute. There is a scramble for building out as much capacity as fast as possible and outpacing their competitors, and you're starting to see a lot of interesting new technologies as well as requests for us to be able to pull some of these schedules in, whether part of that is politically driven or if it's just the pure competition in order to add the capacity faster.

Jeff Van Sinderen

Okay. And so you said you're adding 100% on-time delivery for chillers now. If you could produce more data center product right now, do you have other data center customers or potential customers that want that product?

Neil Brinker

Yes. It's -- we have more demand, more requests even with the amount of capacity that we're putting in place with air handling units, with CDUs, with chillers that V-dry air coolers, adiabatic coolers, all these products that go into the data center space far exceeds our capacity.

Jeff Van Sinderen

So you really -- at this point, you're having to sort of turn away some potential customers or you're having to -- I don't want to say put on allocation, but it's almost as if you're sort of allocating to some degree.

Neil Brinker

We are trying to navigate these relationships. We leverage 80/20 with how we identify customers that we consider are what we call perfect prospects internally because of their cash position, because of their ability to win because of their technology, because of their strategy. It aligns with our technology road map. When there's a high degree of fit of partnership, we have preference for those customers. It would just be a longer lead time for the others.

Jeff Van Sinderen

Understood. Sounds like a good way to operate. And then just given the balance sheet considerations of some of the smaller data center players, how are you thinking about mitigating that smaller player customer balance sheet risk, if you will?

Neil Brinker

We typically don't engage.

We have enough -- yes, we have enough demand from our top 10 that we don't have to engage.

Operator

The next question is from Manish Somaiya from Cantor.

Manish Somaiya

My first question is on the inventory buildup and the working capital ramp that you've had in anticipation of product deliveries. And my question specifically is if customer site schedules move to the right, how fungible is that inventory across customers and projects?

Neil Brinker

So typically, we build a product that is anywhere between 70% to 80% that's scalable. The last 30 -- 20% to 30% is more customizable. So the majority of the product would be able to be shared with other projects and other demand.

Michael Lucareli

Yes. Most of the inventory is actually in raw state, and we try to time shipments and even negotiations of when our products are done that they take possession of them. So most of it is raw and as Neil said, and then you can reuse that for various products.

Manish Somaiya

Okay. That's helpful. And then on '27 CapEx, I think you have guided to $150 million to $200 million with the 20 chiller lines targeted by year-end. How should we think about '28? I mean, does that kind of normalize from a capital intensity perspective? And I guess, looking ahead to cash conversion, if you can just help us with that as well.

Michael Lucareli

Yes. So a few items. I'm going to push out, as Neil did to our IR Day only when we're looking into '28. But directionally, we will see a more normalized level of capital spending. It will -- I expect it will decline. But as the size of the company kind of stay at a -- for sure, we'll be over $100 million a year, I'd expect just for preventative maintenance and to support future growth. And the conversion, we expect will fully improve as we go forward from a free cash. While I'd like to see -- 2 things I'd say, while I'd love to see bigger free cash flow conversion this year, I think it's a really big positive that we're generating 90% data center growth and the company is fully funding from operating cash flows, our growth, which is great.

But also just this year is a little bit of a unique situation when you look at our full year and even year-to-date with regards to the spin-off of the company. We mentioned that we'll probably have somewhere between $30 million, $50 million this year of cash separation costs plus some capital to separate the company. And then we had talked about cash taxes, both because of the spin-off and frankly, the LTA where we got a large upfront payment, we have about $70 million plus of higher-than-normal cash taxes. So just in this year, I think we've got $100 million of non-normal operating cash items that I wouldn't expect to continue into the future.

Manish Somaiya

And then just lastly, we're sort of in the middle of the third quarter for you guys. And as I process the discussion we've had for the past 1 hour pertaining to the targets for '27 with margins, et cetera. From your perspective, Neil, what are some of the biggest risks that you are focused on that we should at least be aware of?

Neil Brinker

We have to hit the schedules for our customers. The demand that we have is critical for them to be successful. And marrying the supply chain ramp with the factory ramp with the labor ramps has been a delicate balance over the last couple of quarters. We're getting better at it, no doubt about that. And just making sure that we can continue to meet our customers' delivery schedules is critical for the future of our success because they're -- the projects and programs that we have with them extend well out into 2030, so 2031.

So we want to make sure that we're meeting the commitments early, even if it's more costly for us to do it because we see this as strategic customers with long-term potential.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Kathy Powers for closing comments.

Kathy Powers

Thank you to everyone for joining us this morning. The replay of the call will be available through our website in a couple of hours. We're looking forward to seeing many of you on November 18 in Chicago. Have a great day. Thanks. Bye.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.