Conferencia de resultados del 3T de 2026 de VPG: El récord de pedidos de sensores respalda las perspectivas de crecimiento para 2027

Puntos clave

• VPG informó de unos ingresos netos GAAP en el T3 de 2026 de 85,1 millones de dólares. Los ingresos ajustados fueron de 87,4 millones de dólares tras excluir 2,3 millones de dólares en reembolsos de aranceles transferidos a los clientes, lo que supone un aumento intertrimestral del 4% y un 10% interanual.
• Los pedidos ajustados alcanzaron los 103 millones de dólares, generando un ratio de facturación sobre pedidos (book-to-bill) consolidado de 1,17. Los tres segmentos se situaron por encima de 1,0, mientras que la cartera de pedidos pendientes alcanzó los 151 millones de dólares al cierre del trimestre.
• Los ingresos del segmento de Sensores aumentaron un 21% interanual hasta los 38,4 millones de dólares. Las reservas alcanzaron un récord trimestral por segundo periodo consecutivo de 51,7 millones de dólares, impulsadas por la infraestructura relacionada con la IA y las aplicaciones aeroespaciales y de defensa.
• El margen bruto ajustado mejoró de forma intertrimestral hasta el 39,3%, el EBITDA ajustado aumentó a 8,2 millones de dólares y el flujo de caja libre ajustado se recuperó hasta los 5,5 millones de dólares.
• La dirección situó sus previsiones de ingresos para el T4 de 2026 entre 84 y 91 millones de dólares, y señaló que los ingresos del T1 de 2027 podrían alcanzar los 90 millones de dólares o más a medida que se expanda la capacidad de producción.
• Basándose en el impulso de los pedidos y en la cartera pendiente, la dirección ve potencial para un crecimiento de los ingresos del 10% al 12% en 2027. Esto sigue sujeto a la ejecución de la capacidad, los plazos de los clientes y las condiciones del mercado final.

Datos financieros clave

Rendimiento empresarial y operativo

Sensores

El segmento de Sensores fue el principal motor de crecimiento de VPG. Los ingresos aumentaron un 15% intertrimestralmente y un 21% interanual, alcanzando los 38,4 millones de dólares. Las reservas subieron un 8% desde el T2 hasta un récord de 51,7 millones de dólares, lo que dio lugar a un ratio de facturación sobre pedidos de 1,35.

La demanda estuvo encabezada por las resistencias de precisión utilizadas en equipos de proceso frontal (front-end), posterior (back-end) y de control de procesos de semiconductores, junto con productos para infraestructuras de transmisión por fibra óptica de alta velocidad. La demanda de aviónica y defensa también se mantuvo firme tanto en programas consolidados como de nueva generación.

La dirección estimó que la demanda relacionada con la IA representó aproximadamente entre el 20% y el 30% del segmento de Sensores. Esta estimación incluye semiconductores, infraestructura de datos de fibra óptica y potencialmente aplicaciones de robótica humanoide.

Las reservas de robótica humanoide se situaron en unos 200.000 dólares y los ingresos en 300.000 dólares. Un cliente inicial retrasó el inicio de su rampa de producción al T4 debido a desafíos en el escalamiento de la cadena de suministro. VPG prevé que los pedidos aumenten gradualmente en el T4 y se aceleren a lo largo de 2027, al tiempo que enfatiza que los plazos de los clientes siguen siendo inciertos.

Soluciones de pesaje

Los ingresos ajustados fueron de 26,9 millones de dólares, lo que supone un descenso intertrimestral del 11% y del 2% interanual. El descenso intertrimestral reflejó la debilidad estacional en Europa, principalmente en los productos de pesaje de procesos.

Los pedidos ajustados alcanzaron los 28,6 millones de dólares, con un ratio de facturación sobre pedidos de 1,06. La demanda en pesaje industrial y médica se mantuvo en general estable. Las menores reservas para bicicletas eléctricas tras un gran pedido semestral en el T2 se vieron compensadas por una mayor demanda en el sector del transporte.

Sistemas de medición

Los ingresos aumentaron un 10% intertrimestralmente y un 8% interanual, impulsados por mayores ventas de sistemas de simulación termomecánica DSI para el mercado del acero. La producción de KELK continuó recuperándose.

Los pedidos aumentaron un 19% intertrimestral hasta aproximadamente 22,2 millones de dólares, lo que incluye un incremento del 40% en pedidos relacionados con el acero. Las reservas de DTS para pruebas de seguridad ante colisiones en el sector automotriz alcanzaron su nivel más alto de 2026, mientras que los pedidos aeroespaciales y de defensa se mantuvieron sólidos.

VPG generó 4,2 millones de dólares en ahorros de costes durante los primeros nueve meses de 2026 y mantiene el rumbo para alcanzar aproximadamente 6 millones de dólares en todo el año. Estas medidas forman parte de un plan a tres años cuyo objetivo es lograr unos 20 millones de dólares de ahorro mediante la optimización de la fabricación, la automatización y las eficiencias en las compras.

Previsiones de la dirección

VPG prevé unos ingresos netos para el T4 de 2026 de entre 84 y 91 millones de dólares, asumiendo tipos de cambio constantes respecto al T3 de 2026. Las previsiones excluyen los reembolsos de aranceles previstos para los clientes, que la dirección calificó de neutros para el beneficio.

El rango del T4 refleja los envíos programados de la cartera de pedidos pendientes, menos días laborables que en el T3 y la incertidumbre en torno a los plazos de los clientes de robótica humanoide. La empresa continúa contratando y capacitando personal de fabricación y añadiendo equipos, particularmente en el segmento de Sensores.

La dirección afirmó que la expansión de capacidad planificada podría respaldar unos ingresos en el T1 de 2027 de 90 millones de dólares o más. Asimismo, ve potencial para un crecimiento de los ingresos del 10% al 12% en 2027, apoyado por la cartera pendiente de 151 millones de dólares, la continua demanda relacionada con la IA, la actividad aeroespacial y de defensa, y los primeros signos de recuperación del mercado industrial.

VPG prevé una tasa impositiva operativa para todo el año 2026 de aproximadamente el 45% y unas inversiones de capital de entre 14 y 16 millones de dólares.

Riesgos y factores a vigilar

• Los tipos de cambio desfavorables redujeron el beneficio operativo ajustado del T3 en 3,4 millones de dólares interanual y el beneficio operativo acumulado en el año en 8,1 millones de dólares.
• La tasa impositiva ajustada del T3 aumentó del 37% de la primera mitad del año al 48% debido a un cambio en la combinación geográfica de ingresos, lo que redujo el BPA ajustado en aproximadamente 0,03 dólares.
• El calendario de producción de la robótica humanoide sigue siendo volátil debido a que los clientes están escalando cadenas de suministro complejas.
• La expansión de la capacidad de Sensores requiere nuevos equipos, centros de fabricación adicionales, contrataciones y capacitación de empleados. La dirección señaló que la curva de aprendizaje del producto implica que las mejoras en la capacidad y en los plazos de entrega llevarán tiempo.
• El T4 contiene menos días laborables que el T3, lo que genera una restricción adicional en los volúmenes de envío.

Aspectos destacados del turno de preguntas de analistas

La dirección confirmó que las reservas de desarrollo de negocio fueron de aproximadamente 12 millones de dólares en el T3 y de 33,5 millones de dólares en los primeros nueve meses. VPG mantiene el rumbo para alcanzar su objetivo de 45 millones de dólares para todo el año 2026.

Al ser preguntada por las perspectivas para 2027, la dirección citó la cartera de pedidos pendientes de 151 millones de dólares al cierre del trimestre, las expectativas de un ritmo de ejecución de pedidos en el T4 similar al del T3, la continua demanda vinculada a la IA, la solidez en el sector aeroespacial y de defensa, y los signos de recuperación industrial.

En cuanto a la capacidad, VPG declaró que está adquiriendo equipos, contratando personal y aumentando la producción en instalaciones de fabricación adicionales. La dirección prevé que estas medidas incrementen la producción y reduzcan los plazos de entrega durante el próximo trimestre.

La empresa también confirmó que parte de un pedido de KELK diferido anteriormente se cumplió en el T3, y se espera que la mayor parte se entregue en el T4.

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to the VPG Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Steve Cantor, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Steve Cantor

Great. Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to VPG's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our press release and slides are available on our website, vpgsensors.com. An audio recording of today's call will also be available on our website. On the call today, we will be -- today's remarks are governed by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Actual results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements, and there could be no assurance that the results discussed today, including the targets in our operating model, will be achieved. For a discussion of the risks associated with VPG's operations, please refer to our SEC filings, particularly our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and our other recent SEC filings.

We also present certain GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and on this call, and we believe these measures provide useful information about the operating performance of our business and should be considered together with the corresponding GAAP measures. Before beginning the call, I want to note that we received $2.3 million in tariff refunds from the U.S. federal government, and we intend to pass those refunds on to our customers. GAAP net revenue for the third quarter was $85.1 million. Third quarter adjusted net revenue was $87.4 million, excluding $2.3 million of refunds that had no impact on gross profit.

Under GAAP, these refunds are reflected as reductions to revenue and cost of products sold. Unless otherwise noted, all third quarter financial measures discussed today exclude these refunds, including adjusted gross margin. The refunds have no impact on prior periods. Joining me on the call today are Ziv Shoshani, President and CEO; and Bill Clancy, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Ziv for his prepared remarks. You can read off the quarterly presentation. Ziv?

Ziv Shoshani

Thank you, Steve. I will begin with commentary on the third quarter. Bill will then review our financial results and provide our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026. Moving to Slide 4, third quarter highlights, booking and sales. Our third quarter reflected continued strong demand, improving revenues and margins and ongoing progress in our strategic initiatives. Adjusted revenue was $87.4 million, our highest quarterly level in 3 years, increasing 4% sequentially and 10% year-over-year.

Adjusted orders of $103 million were driven by continued record demand in our Sensors segment from AI-related markets, including semiconductor equipment, data center infrastructure as well as aerospace and defense applications. Bookings from our business development initiatives totaled $11.9 million in the third quarter and $33.5 million year-to-date, keeping us on track to achieve our $45 million full year goal.

Our consolidated book-to-bill ratio was 1.17, marking the eighth consecutive quarter at or above 1.0 and underscoring continued positive demand trends, led by the Sensors book-to-bill ratio of 1.35, all 3 segments achieved ratios above 1.0. This sustained order momentum is driving a growing backlog and increasing our visibility into 2027.

We continue to add manufacturing capacity and personnel to support our growth, particularly in Sensors. Our order momentum in key markets and our growing backlog set the stage for potential revenue growth of 10% to 12% in 2027, which is above the annual target rate in our 3-year plan. Adjusted gross margin improved to 39.3% from 38.6% in the second quarter. Third quarter cash from operations was $11.1 million and free cash flow was $5.5 million.

Adjusted EPS of $0.14 reflected an adjusted 48% tax rate compared to the 37% through the first half of 2026, driven by a shift in the geographic mix of income. The higher tax rate reduced adjusted EPS by approximately $0.03 per diluted share. Regarding our operational improvement initiatives, we delivered nearly $4.2 million of cost savings year-to-date and remain on track to achieve approximately $6 million of savings this year.

These actions represent the first phase of our 3-year plan to deliver approximately $20 million of cost reduction initiatives through manufacturing footprint optimization, increased automation and procurement efficiencies across our global supply chain. I'll now review performance by segment.

Moving to Slide 5. Sensors third quarter highlights. Beginning with our Sensors segment, third quarter revenue of $38.4 million grew 15% from the second quarter and 21% from a year ago. The increase from the second quarter primarily reflected higher sales to the test and measurement market. Bookings of $51.7 million remained robust, increasing 8% sequentially to a second consecutive all-time quarterly record. This resulted in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.35.

Demand continued to be driven by investments in AI-related infrastructure. We recorded strong orders for precision resistors sold to semiconductor front-end, back-end and process control equipment manufacturers. Bookings for manufacturers of high-speed fiber optic transmission equipment remained elevated, supporting the continued build-out of data center infrastructure. We saw continued positive trends in avionics and defense applications with sustained demand from both established and next-generation defense programs.

Turning to humanoid robotics. We remain highly optimistic about the long-term opportunity. While the market is still in its early stages, the engineering complexity, demanding performance requirement and the need to scale sophisticated supply chain create an attractive opportunity for VPG. Humanoid-related bookings were approximately $200,000 and sales were $300,000 in the third quarter as our initial customer shifted the start of its production ramp to Q4, citing the challenges of scaling a highly complex supply chain -- we are prepared to support customer planned production volume and now expect orders to increase gradually beginning in the current quarter, with volume accelerating further through 2027.

We also received an investment from this customer to support our capacity expansion related to humanoid, which we view as a solid endorsement of our value proposition and their commitment to VPG as a supplier. Regarding customer #2, discussions continue to progress well and the potential revenue opportunity could be larger than we previously anticipated. We are also supporting several other humanoid robotics customers as they advance from prototype development to commercialization, while expanding our engagement with the additional prospective customers across the market.

Moving to Slide 6, Weighing Solutions third quarter highlights. Turning to our Weighing Solutions segment. Third quarter adjusted revenue of $26.9 million, which excludes $2.3 million of tariff refunds to customers, declined 11% from the second quarter and were down 2% from a year ago. The sequential decline reflected seasonal softness in Europe, mainly for process weighing products.

Adjusted orders of $28.6 million were flat with the second quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.06. Trends in the industrial weighing market and the medical market were mostly stable. Bookings declined from -- for consumer e-bike applications following a large semiannual order in the second quarter, which was offset by a higher demand in the transportation market.

I am pleased to note that our products are now standard options for onboard weighing on off-highway heavy use trucks for a leading European manufacturers designed to improve efficiency and safety. These solutions are integrated into the vehicle to measure payload during the loading and operations in a harsh environment such as mining and construction.

Moving to Slide 7. Measurement Systems third quarter highlights. Turning to Measurement Systems. Third quarter revenue increased 10% sequentially and 8% year-over-year. The sequential increase was driven by higher sales of DSI's thermal mechanical simulation test systems for the steel market. KELK production continued to recover from the second quarter. Because these products operate in a demanding environment and play a mission-critical role in optimization yields and productivity for steel products, we continue to focus on execution, product quality and customer service.

Orders of approximately $22.2 million increased 19% sequentially, which reflected a 40% increase in steel-related orders. We also had another strong quarter of DTS as bookings related to automotive crash safety testing reached their highest level of 2026 and orders for aerospace and defense applications remain strong.

Moving to Slide 8, priorities and focus. Our key priorities remain centered on 2 areas: accelerating commercialization and growth and driving operational execution and excellence. On the commercial side, we completed the first phase of our company-wide CRM rollout for the Sensors segment, with deployment across the remaining business planned for the fourth quarter and 2027. We rolled out a system and processes for lead management and opportunity management for Sensors.

And we have initiated targeted marketing programs in the humanoid robotics market. We also refreshed our corporate website and started the first phase of our plan to accelerate and streamline the new product development processes. Operationally, we achieved $4.2 million of our targeted $6 million in cost savings for 2026. We continue to optimize and relocate manufacturing for key products to support our long-term cost and productivity objectives.

At the same time, we are expanding production capacity through adding personnel and equipment at key Sensors facilities. Importantly, our manufacturing and supply chain capabilities are in place to support the initial production ramp for humanoid robotics customers. As we look ahead, given the strong order trends, growing backlog, continued execution on our growth strategies, we see potential to achieve revenue in the first quarter of 2027 of $90 million or better. This supports our potential to grow our revenues 10% to 12% in 2027, which is above the targeted annual growth rate in our original 3-year plan.

I will now turn it over to Bill Clancy. Bill?

William Clancy

Thank you, Ziv. Referring to Slide 9 and the reconciliation tables in the slide deck, third quarter 2026 GAAP net revenues was $85.1 million after $2.3 million of tariff refunds passed through to customers with no impact on gross margin. Excluding these refunds, adjusted revenue was $87.4 million. Adjusted gross margin improved sequentially to 39.3% from 38.6% in the second quarter, excluding $141,000 of start-up costs related to expanded production capacity. This was an improvement from 38.6% in the second quarter.

Sequentially by segment, Sensors adjusted gross margin increased to 32.6%, primarily due to higher volume, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs. Weighing Solutions adjusted gross margin of 34.6% declined mainly due to lower volume. Measurement Systems gross margin increased to 56.5%, primarily reflecting higher volume and a favorable product mix.

Moving to Slide 10. Our third quarter operating margin was 3.2%. Excluding the aforementioned start-up costs as well as restructuring, stock-based compensation and severance costs, adjusted operating margin was 4.9%. Selling, general and administrative expense for the third quarter was $31.2 million or 35.7% of revenue, down from second quarter levels due to lower sales commissions and reduced incentive compensation accruals.

Foreign exchange rates continued to represent a significant headwind to profitability. Unfavorable exchange rates reduced third quarter adjusted operating profit by $3.4 million compared with the prior year period. Year-to-date, unfavorable foreign exchange has reduced operating profit by $8.1 million. GAAP net earnings were $559,000 or $0.04 per diluted share. Adjusted net earnings were $1.8 million or $0.14 per diluted share. As Ziv noted earlier, the GAAP tax rate for the third quarter of 2026 was significantly higher than the run rate through the first half of the year. For full year 2026, we are assuming an operational tax rate of approximately 45%.

Moving to Slide 11. We also made meaningful sequential progress in EBITDA and cash flow. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $8.2 million or 9.4% of revenue from $5.2 million or 6.5% of revenue in the second quarter. Capital expenditures were $5.6 million in the third quarter and $10.6 million for the first 9 months of 2026. For full year 2026, we expect CapEx of approximately $14 million to $16 million.

We improved receivable collections during the quarter, which drove adjusted free cash flow to $5.5 million, a $6.9 million sequential improvement from negative $1.4 million in the second quarter. At the end of the third quarter, cash was $80.9 million and long-term debt was $15.7 million, resulting in net cash of approximately $65 million. Regarding the outlook, for the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect net revenues of $84 million to $91 million, assuming constant third quarter 2026 exchange rates.

Our guidance excludes expected fourth quarter tariff refunds to customers, which are profit neutral. In summary, order momentum remains strong, led by record demand in Sensors and continued strength in AI-related markets. Our financial performance is improving with sequential gains in adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow while we continue to execute our cost reduction initiatives. And our growing backlog, expanding capacity and commercial execution gives us increased visibility into 2027, supporting our view that revenue growth can exceed the annual target in our 3-year plan.

With that, we will open the call for questions. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Jaeson Schmidt at Lake Street Capital.

Preguntas y respuestas

Jaeson Schmidt

Just curious if you could disclose what new business development revenue was in Q3? And I guess relatedly, are you still on track to hit that $45 million goal for the year?

Ziv Shoshani

Yes. So yes, we did report a BD for Q3, the BD contribution is $12 million in orders. And for the first 9 months, it's $33.5 million, and we are on track to hit our $45 million target for 2026.

Jaeson Schmidt

Okay. Perfect. And then looking at 2027, obviously, you guys feel pretty confident on next year. Just curious if you could rank order the growth drivers that are giving you the confidence in the '27 outlook.

Ziv Shoshani

So as we look into 2027, first, we see a very solid backlog. For the end of this quarter, we are running at a backlog of $151 million. The expectation is that the order run rate for Q4 will be similar to the third quarter, given the business environment. We do see a continuation in -- from a demand standpoint from our end markets regarding AI-related infrastructure and applications as well as AMS. We do see also some signs in the industrial market in terms of recovery. Therefore, we are optimistic regarding our projection for 2027, which we expect to be 10% to 12% higher revenues in respect to 2026.

Operator

We'll move next to Josh Nichols at B. Riley Securities.

Josh Nichols

Just curious, like looking -- the backlog, the order activity has been exceptionally strong. You're assuming 4Q is kind of similar to 3Q and then there's a nice ramp assumed in 1Q and beyond. What's the right way to think about that wider revenue range that you're giving for 4Q? And what are kind of the puts and takes that would get you potentially to the higher end of that range? Is it order timing on things like humanoids or other parts of the core business like Sensors?

Ziv Shoshani

So if we are looking at the Q4 revenues, our Q4 outlook reflects really our aged backlog and the timing expected to be shipped in Q4, but it also takes into account the number of working days in Q4, which is less than Q3. We are also looking at -- we do continue to hire and train additional manufacturing personnel to increase our manufacturing production, mainly in the Sensors segment.

So all in all, the Q4 revenue projection is based on the backlog, number of working days, while also we increased the output per day. Based on our projected capacity increase, we do believe that we will be able to reach the $90 million or higher in Q1 in respect to revenues. And I'm sorry, what was your other question?

Josh Nichols

I was just curious because the range for 4Q was also a bit wider than you normally give. Normally, it's around $5 million.

Ziv Shoshani

We did give larger ranges in the past. I didn't thought this is a higher range than in the past. I would say that, as you said, there is a certain volatility regarding the humanoid business given the fact that the expected -- the supply chain is more complicated from our customer's standpoint, the supply chain is more complicated than expected. But this is part of the -- you can call it, of the buffer volatility that we also account in our range.

Josh Nichols

Got it. That makes sense. And then last question for me. I mean, the sensors momentum has been exceptionally strong, another quarter, record bookings north of $51 million. I'm just curious how you're thinking about -- given the influx of orders about your capacity lead times and the ability of the company to really convert that backlog into revenue in a timely manner.

Ziv Shoshani

So naturally, given the sizable order intake, we had to place order to increase capacity equipment as well as hiring more people. In addition to that, we are setting, I would say, more manufacturing site (sic) [ sites ] to support more manufacturing site (sic) [ sites ] to support the higher capacity. So it takes time given the learning curve and the complexity of the product that we are producing. But the expectation is that in the -- I would say that in the coming quarter, we are going to reduce the lead time and increase our capacity as we expand also in our other manufacturing facility.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

We'll move next to John Franzreb at Sidoti.

John Franzreb

Ziv, I'm kind of curious, given how much AI infrastructure markets are driving demand, do you have a sense of how much that is of the revenue and/or booking profile?

Ziv Shoshani

We didn't provide any specific information regarding the Sensor segment. We can -- we did identify that all the -- our semiconductor business, all our fiber optics data and potentially also our humanoid business, they are all AI related. I think that at this point in time, I could estimate that -- and by the way, in addition to that, I would like to state that we have also a very solid demand avionics, military and space business. But if we speak about specifically about the AI, I would say that at this point in time, a rough estimation would be around 20% to 30%.

John Franzreb

20% to 30% of the Sensors segment or company-wide?

Ziv Shoshani

No, no, no. Of the Sensors segment.

John Franzreb

And in the second quarter, there was a KELK order that was deferred at the time we say in the second half of the year. Was that order fulfilled in the third quarter? Or is there still some remaining that's going into the fourth?

Ziv Shoshani

So you are correct. Some of the order has been fulfilled, but the main part will be delivered in Q4 this quarter.

John Franzreb

That's good to hear. And one, I guess, last question. How are the -- just a point of clarity for me, how are the bookings impacted by the tariff refunds? I understand how the revenue works, but it looks like there's a footnote in the presentation about bookings.

William Clancy

Yes, John. So the way we do our calculation, it's always the opening backlog and then plus order less -- I mean -- so basically, we back into the order numbers just because the backlog is fixed. So it's just a mathematical calculation.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And we have no further questions. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve for closing remarks.

Steve Cantor

Before concluding, I want to note that we will be participating in the ROTH Conference this month and the Sidoti Conference in December, and you can contact me for more information about those. We look forward to updating you next quarter. Thank you all, and have a great day.

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.