Conferencia de resultados del T3 de 2026 de Oxford Square Capital (OXSQ): cae el NAV, continúa el desapalancamiento

Conclusiones clave

• Oxford Square Capital Corp. (NASDAQ: OXSQ) registró un resultado neto de inversiones de 4,9 millones de dólares en el tercer trimestre de 2026, o 0,04 dólares por acción, por debajo de los 5,1 millones de dólares, o 0,05 dólares por acción, del trimestre anterior.
• El valor del activo neto disminuyó a 1,21 dólares por acción desde los 1,29 dólares, mientras que las pérdidas netas combinadas de inversión realizadas y no realizadas se ampliaron a 3,3 millones de dólares frente a los 1,1 millones de dólares.
• Los ingresos totales por inversiones aumentaron intertrimestralmente a 9,9 millones de dólares desde los 9,4 millones de dólares. Las compras de inversiones sumaron un total de 20,8 millones de dólares, en comparación con los 10,3 millones de dólares en amortizaciones.
• El ratio deuda-patrimonio neto al cierre del trimestre fue de 1,07, por debajo del 1,26 registrado al final del primer trimestre de 2026. La gerencia señaló que el apalancamiento disminuyó aún más posteriormente tras un pago adicional de deuda.
• El consejo de administración declaró distribuciones mensuales de 0,015 dólares por acción para enero, febrero y marzo de 2027. La gerencia vinculó el menor pago a la capacidad de generación de beneficios a corto plazo, al desapalancamiento continuo y a la preservación de capacidad para oportunidades en el mercado secundario.
• La gerencia indicó que el giro de la cartera hacia un perfil de riesgo más conservador fue deliberado y prevé una mayor rotación a medida que surjan oportunidades.

Datos financieros clave

Rendimiento empresarial y operativo

La gerencia describió el reposicionamiento de la cartera como una respuesta consciente a la fijación de precios del riesgo en préstamos corporativos sindicados de Estados Unidos y capital de CLO. La empresa ha aumentado su enfoque en la deuda garantizada de primer rango mientras reduce la exposición a la deuda garantizada de segundo rango y al capital de CLO.

Oxford Square ve oportunidades atractivas en el mercado secundario de capital de CLO, pero menos oportunidades convincentes en el mercado primario. La gerencia pretende equilibrar una actividad inversora selectiva con un desapalancamiento moderado y el control del riesgo.

El índice Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan subió del 94,96% del valor par el 30 de junio al 95,32% el 30 de septiembre. Los precios de los préstamos con calificación BB aumentaron 8 puntos básicos y los de calificación B subieron 119 puntos básicos, mientras que los precios con calificación CCC cayeron 286 puntos básicos.

La tasa de impago de préstamos de los últimos 12 meses disminuyó al 0,55% por importe principal desde el 0,97%. Sin embargo, la tasa que incluye los ejercicios de gestión de pasivos se mantuvo elevada en el 2,97%, en comparación con el 2,77% a finales de junio. El ratio de estrés financiero aumentó del 6,87% al 7,05%.

La emisión primaria de préstamos apalancados en Estados Unidos, excluyendo modificaciones y transacciones de refijación de precios, sumó un total de 107.400 millones de dólares en el T3 de 2026, un 20% menos que en el T3 de 2025. Las entradas de fondos en préstamos fueron de aproximadamente 1.280 millones de dólares.

Perspectivas de la gerencia

La gerencia prevé una continua rotación de la cartera para captar inversiones oportunistas mientras apoya un mayor desapalancamiento moderado. No se facilitó un objetivo de apalancamiento específico; el ritmo de reducción de la deuda dependerá del equilibrio entre las oportunidades de inversión y el mantenimiento de unos ratios de apalancamiento adecuados.

El consejo de administración declaró distribuciones de 0,015 dólares por acción para cada mes desde enero hasta marzo de 2027. La gerencia afirmó que este nivel refleja la capacidad de generación de beneficios actual y prevista a corto plazo de la cartera, el objetivo de reducir el apalancamiento y la necesidad de mantener flexibilidad para inversiones en el mercado secundario.

Riesgos y aspectos a vigilar

• El NAV por acción disminuyó 0,08 dólares intertrimestralmente, y las pérdidas netas combinadas realizadas y no realizadas aumentaron a 3,3 millones de dólares.
• Los precios de los préstamos con calificación CCC cayeron 286 puntos básicos durante el trimestre, lo que contrasta con las ganancias en las categorías de mayor calificación.
• La tasa de impago, incluidos los ejercicios de gestión de pasivos, subió al 2,97%, mientras que el ratio de estrés financiero de los préstamos aumentó al 7,05%.
• La gerencia ve menos oportunidades convincentes de capital de CLO en el mercado primario y mantiene un enfoque más conservador respecto al riesgo.
• El nivel de distribución más bajo refleja la evaluación por parte de la gerencia de la capacidad de generación de beneficios de la cartera a corto plazo y sus prioridades de desapalancamiento.

Puntos destacados de la sesión de preguntas y respuestas con analistas

• Composición de la cartera: La gerencia confirmó que el cambio hacia la deuda de primer rango y el distanciamiento de la deuda de segundo rango y del capital de CLO fue deliberado. Se prevé una mayor rotación a medida que haya inversiones atractivas disponibles.
• Apalancamiento: El ratio deuda-patrimonio neto cayó del 1,26 a finales del T1 de 2026 al 1,07 al cierre del T3. La gerencia señaló que un reembolso adicional redujo aún más el apalancamiento, y que las futuras reducciones dependerán de las oportunidades de inversión.
• Pérdidas realizadas: Las pérdidas reflejaron principalmente la finalización del plazo de dos posiciones de capital de CLO. Dichas posiciones ya se registraban prácticamente sin valor o solo con valor de opción, lo que se tradujo principalmente en un trasvase de pérdidas no realizadas a realizadas.
• Revalorización no realizada: La gerencia atribuyó la revalorización no realizada del trimestre, de algo menos de 8 millones de dólares, principalmente al aumento generalizado de los precios de los préstamos apalancados, con algunas posiciones generando rendimientos extraordinarios.
• Decisión sobre las distribuciones: El consejo basó la distribución mensual de 0,015 dólares para el T1 de 2027 en la capacidad de generación de beneficios a corto plazo, los objetivos moderados de desapalancamiento y el deseo de preservar capital para oportunidades en el mercado secundario.

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Carly, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Oxford Square Capital Corp. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jonathan Cohen, CEO. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Cohen

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Oxford Square Capital Corp. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I'm joined today by Saul Rosenthal, our President; Bruce Rubin, our CFO; and Kevin Yonon, our Managing Director and Portfolio Manager.

Bruce, could you open the call with the disclosure regarding forward-looking statements?

Bruce Rubin

Sure, Jonathan. Today's conference call is being recorded. An audio replay of the conference call will be available for 30 days. Replay information is included in our press release that was issued earlier this morning. Please note that this call is the property of Oxford Square Capital Corp. Any unauthorized rebroadcast of this call in any form is strictly prohibited. At this point, please direct your attention to the customary disclosure in this morning's press release regarding forward-looking information.

Today's conference call includes forward-looking statements and projections that reflect the company's current views with respect to, among other things, future events and financial performance. We ask that you refer to our most recent filings with the SEC for important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these projections. We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements unless required to do so by law. To obtain copies of our latest SEC filings, please visit our website at www.oxfordsquarecapital.com.

With that, I'll turn the presentation back to Jonathan.

Jonathan Cohen

Thank you, Bruce. For the quarter ended September, Oxford Square's net investment income was approximately $4.9 million or $0.04 per share compared with approximately $5.1 million or $0.05 per share in the prior quarter. Our net asset value per share stood at $1.21 compared to a net asset value per share of $1.29 for the prior quarter. During the quarter, we distributed $0.105 per share to our common stock shareholders. For the third quarter, we recorded total investment income of approximately $9.9 million compared to approximately $9.4 million in the prior quarter.

In the third quarter, we recorded combined net unrealized and realized losses on investments of approximately $3.3 million or $0.03 per share compared to combined net unrealized and realized losses on investments of approximately $1.1 million or $0.01 per share for the prior quarter. During the third quarter, our investment activity consisted of purchases of approximately $20.8 million and repayments of approximately $10.3 million.

During the quarter ended September, we issued a total of approximately 14.1 million shares of our common stock pursuant to an at-the-market offering, resulting in net proceeds of approximately $19.4 million. On October 28, our Board of Directors declared monthly distributions of $0.015 per share for each of the months ending January, February and March of 2027. Additional details regarding record and payment date information can be found in our press release that was issued this morning.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to our Portfolio Manager, Kevin Yonon.

Kevin?

Kevin P. Yonon

Thank you, Jonathan. During the quarter ended September 30, U.S. loan market performance improved versus the prior quarter. U.S. loan prices, as defined by the Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index, increased from 94.96% of par as of June 30 to 95.32% of par as of September 30. According to LCD, during the quarter, there was some pricing dispersion with BB-rated loan prices increasing 8 basis points, B-rated loan prices increasing 119 basis points and CCC-rated loan prices decreasing 286 basis points on average.

According to PitchBook LCD, the 12-month trailing default rate for the loan index decreased to 0.55% by principal amount at the end of the quarter from 0.97% at the end of June. Additionally, the default rate, including various forms of liability management exercises, which are not captured in the aforementioned default rate, remained at an elevated level of 2.97% versus 2.77% as of June 30. The distress ratio, defined as a percentage of loans with prices below 80% of par, ended the quarter at 7.05% compared to 6.87% at the end of June.

During the quarter ended September 30, 2026, U.S. leveraged loan primary market issuance, excluding amendments and repricing transactions, was $107.4 billion, representing a 20% decrease versus the quarter ended September 30, 2025. This was driven by lower refinancing, dividend and M&A activity, partly offset by higher LBO activity versus the prior year comparable quarter. At the same time, U.S. loan fund inflows, as measured by Lipper, were approximately $1.28 billion for the quarter ended September 30. We continue to focus on portfolio management strategies designed to maximize our long-term total return. And as a permanent capital vehicle, we historically have been able to take a longer-term view towards our investment strategy.

With that, I will turn the call back over to Jonathan.

Jonathan Cohen

Thank you, Kevin. Additional information about Oxford Square's third quarter performance has been posted to our website at www.oxfordsquarecapital.com.

And with that, operator, we're happy to open the call up for any questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is from Erik Zwick with Lucid Capital Markets.

Preguntas y respuestas

Erik Zwick

Jonathan, I want to start maybe with just a bigger picture question as I look through the material. I noticed that the portfolio turnover rate relative to a year ago had slowed from 12.7% down to 4.1%. And then if I look at Slide 4 in the slide deck, just looking at the composition of the investment portfolio, there's been increased concentration in the first lien secured debt and the other category and then declines in the second lien secured debt and CLO equity.

So just curious, as the last year has played out, how much of that change in the portfolio composition was conscious and on your part relative to maybe just market opportunity? And curious, would we continue to see that portfolio composition change over the next few quarters? Or do you feel like the current composition is well suited for today?

Jonathan Cohen

Thank you, Erik, very much. So from an overarching perspective, I think the decision-making has been entirely conscious. We have oriented the portfolio in such a way as to take a more -- reflect a more conservative view of the current price for risk in the primary and secondary markets so far as both U.S. syndicated corporate loans are concerned and also CLO equity. We do see strong opportunities right now in the secondary market for CLO equity, but we see many fewer compelling opportunities in the primary market.

So the combination of a desire to delever the portfolio somewhat and an overall reflection of our approach to risk management, those are the things that has led -- have led to the current composition of the portfolio.

Erik Zwick

That's helpful. And I guess, do you feel like the portfolio is in a good position today? Or would you continue some remixing in favor of maybe first liens and maybe secondary CLO equity investments going forward?

Jonathan Cohen

I think you can reasonably expect to see continued portfolio rotation with the idea of both taking advantage of opportunistic investment possibilities as they arise and also reflecting, hopefully, the continued desire to moderately delever the portfolio while maintaining the appropriate levels of risk management.

Erik Zwick

Yes. That makes sense. And I did want to follow up kind of on the leverage topic. I think leverage is down to 1.07 now at this point. It sounds like maybe with your comments, we could see a little bit further deleveraging going forward? And if so, do you have a kind of target range in mind where you'd like it to settle?

Jonathan Cohen

So intra-quarter, Erik, you may have seen that we paid down some additional debt. So it's lower than that still. And our expectation is that we're going to continue to pay down debt depending on the balance that we see between investment opportunity and the necessity to maintain our leverage ratios at the appropriate levels. But you're absolutely right. You can see at the end of the first quarter, we were sitting at a total debt-to-equity ratio of 1.26. We closed out the third quarter at 1.07. And per my earlier comment, we're lower still on the back of the intra-quarter repayment.

Erik Zwick

Yes. And then moving to the net realized losses in the quarter. I know there were no sales during the quarter. So curious what drove those realized losses?

Jonathan Cohen

So essentially, on at least, I believe, 2 deals, on actually the 2 deals, those were CLO equity positions that had simply reached their terminus points. So they were essentially discharged and unwound as ongoing investments. They were being carried at essentially no value or option value only at that point.

Erik Zwick

Got you. So was that a switch from unrealized to realized? Was that considered kind of what happened as they wound down?

Jonathan Cohen

Precisely right, Erik. Yes, exactly.

Erik Zwick

Got it. Got you. Okay. And then on the flip kind of the unrealized appreciation in the quarter, just shy of $8 million. And I know Kevin mentioned increases in leveraged loan prices during the quarter. Is that primarily the driver there? Or were there some other factors at play as well?

Kevin P. Yonon

Primarily increases in leveraged loan prices, more or less across the book, except for a few positions that were sort of outsized returns, but fairly balanced across the loan portfolio.

Erik Zwick

Excellent. And then last one for me, and I'll step aside, just on the dividend payment in January going forward. Lower now, but seems to be more in line with the earnings power of the current portfolio. Just kind of curious if you could run us through the decision and how you came to that number?

Jonathan Cohen

Sure. The Board's decision, Erik, was taken on the back of exactly what you just mentioned, which is the current and likely prospective near-term earnings power of the fund, combined with the things that we had talked about earlier, which were, firstly, a desire to continue to moderately delever the portfolio, which obviously paying out a lower distribution is helpful with. And then secondly, being in an appropriate position to take advantage of principally secondary market opportunities as they arise.

Operator

I show no further questions at this time. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Jonathan Cohen, CEO, for any closing remarks.

Jonathan Cohen

Thank you very much. Thank you, everyone, for being on this call and for your continued interest in Oxford Square. We look forward to speaking to you again soon. Thanks very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.