Conferencia de resultados del 3T de 2026 de Antero Midstream (AM): EBITDA y crecimiento de ductos

Conclusiones clave

• Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) informó un EBITDA ajustado para el tercer trimestre de 2026 de 291 millones de dólares, un 3% más interanual, a pesar de los recortes de capacidad de procesamiento de aproximadamente 10 Bcf.
• Los volúmenes de recolección y compresión aumentaron un 19% y un 17%, respectivamente, mientras que la inversión de capital totalizó 51 millones de dólares.
• El flujo de caja libre tras dividendos alcanzó los 449 millones de dólares, incluidos 377 millones de dólares procedentes del litigio de Clearwater. La empresa utilizó el flujo de caja para reducir la deuda en más de 400 millones de dólares y acelerar la recompra de acciones.
• El apalancamiento disminuyó a 2,8x al 30 de septiembre, por debajo del objetivo de 3,0x de AM y un giro completo por debajo del máximo registrado a finales de 2022.
• La dirección prevé que el EBITDA ajustado del cuarto trimestre de 2026 alcance un récord para la empresa y crezca a un ritmo de un dígito alto a nivel secuencial, respaldado por el suministro de agua dulce y un modesto crecimiento del volumen de procesamiento neto de los recortes previstos.
• Para 2027, la dirección prevé un crecimiento del EBITDA de dos dígitos interanual y más de 100 millones de dólares en gasto de capital adicional al programa orgánico para East Side Express y otros proyectos regionales de demanda de gas.

Datos financieros clave

Rendimiento empresarial y operativo

Antero Midstream continuó expandiendo su infraestructura integrada en Marcellus Shale mediante la adquisición de HG, proyectos orgánicos de recolección y agua, y su nueva unidad de negocio de gasoductos regionales.

Dos equipos de terminación operaban en la superficie dedicada a AM, respaldando dos plataformas de desarrollo perforadas pero no terminadas. Tanto el sistema de agua heredado como el de HG alcanzaron un 100% de tiempo de actividad durante el tercer trimestre. La empresa sigue en camino de completar la integración del sistema de agua de HG a finales de año y materializar las sinergias de agua previstas en la adquisición.

La construcción de East Side Express continuó. La dirección indicó que múltiples contrapartes aguas abajo han mostrado interés en acceder al gas natural de Antero Resources a través del gasoducto. Se prevé que el proyecto incluya aproximadamente siete interconexiones con gasoductos aguas abajo.

AM también está evaluando varios miles de millones de dólares en posibles proyectos de infraestructura, incluidos un gasoducto regional norte-sur, ramales hacia centros de demanda de gas natural y oportunidades de energía integrada. La dirección afirmó que la empresa tiene la intención de utilizar su infraestructura para captar una mayor parte de la cadena de valor a medida que expiren los acuerdos existentes con terceros.

Desde finales de 2022, AM ha integrado cinco adquisiciones por un total de 1.400 millones de dólares, ha invertido más de 1.000 millones de dólares en capital de crecimiento orgánico, ha aumentado la capacidad de procesamiento en más de 1 Bcf al día y ha reducido su número de acciones en más de 6 millones de acciones.

Orientación de la dirección

La dirección prevé que el EBITDA ajustado del cuarto trimestre de 2026 marque un récord para la empresa y aumente a un ritmo de un dígito alto con respecto al tercer trimestre. La mejora prevista se basa en mayores volúmenes de suministro de agua dulce y un modesto crecimiento del volumen de procesamiento tras los recortes previstos.

Para 2027, la dirección prevé un crecimiento del EBITDA de dos dígitos interanual. Entre los factores clave se incluyen un mayor volumen de procesamiento vinculado a los planes de producción de Antero Resources, dos equipos de terminación operando durante todo el año, entregas adicionales de agua dulce y la finalización de las dos plataformas de desarrollo en los terrenos heredados.

La empresa prevé que el gasto de capital para 2027 aumente en más de 100 millones de dólares por encima de su programa orgánico, principalmente para East Side Express y otros proyectos regionales de demanda de gas.

East Side Express mantiene un alcance estimado de aproximadamente 200 a 300 millones de dólares, con una finalización prevista para finales de 2028 o 2029. La dirección está evaluando actualmente la propuesta del gasoducto norte-sur y afirmó que la decisión final de inversión podría tomarse en 2027.

Riesgos y aspectos a vigilar

La capacidad de procesamiento del tercer trimestre se redujo en aproximadamente 10 Bcf debido a los recortes, y las perspectivas de la dirección para el cuarto trimestre siguen asumiendo algunos recortes previstos.

East Side Express tiene un plazo de construcción de varios años, mientras que el gasoducto norte-sur permanece en fase de definición del alcance y aún no ha alcanzado una decisión final de inversión.

El crecimiento previsto del EBITDA para 2027 depende en parte de un mayor volumen de procesamiento de Antero Resources, una actividad de terminación sostenida y un mayor volumen de suministro de agua dulce.

Puntos destacados de la sesión de preguntas y respuestas con analistas

El analista de Goldman Sachs John Mackay preguntó sobre el alcance, el coste y el calendario de los proyectos de gasoductos regionales de AM. La dirección reiteró un alcance de 200 a 300 millones de dólares para East Side Express, incluidas aproximadamente siete interconexiones aguas abajo, con un plazo fijado para finales de 2028 o 2029.

En cuanto al posible gasoducto norte-sur, la dirección citó un sólido interés en el mercado de Clarington. La empresa está llevando a cabo trabajos de evaluación inicial y podría tomar una decisión final de inversión en 2027.

Al ser preguntada por los factores de transición hacia el crecimiento del EBITDA en 2027, la dirección señaló una mayor capacidad de procesamiento, la finalización de dos plataformas perforadas pero no terminadas y un mayor suministro de agua dulce al operar dos equipos de terminación durante todo el año.

Transcripción completa de la llamada de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to Antero Midstream Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Dan Katzenberg, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may now begin.

Daniel Katzenberg

Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream's Third Quarter Investor Conference Call. We will spend a few moments going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at anteromidstream.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures.

Joining me on the call today are Michael Kennedy, CEO and President of Antero Midstream; Justin Agnew, CFO of Antero Midstream; and Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Resources.

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

Michael Kennedy

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide #3. Antero Midstream continues to expand its integrated Marcellus Shale footprint to support growing natural gas demand across North America. This expansion includes our HG acquisition and integration, organic gathering and water growth projects and our new regional pipeline business unit.

Turning first to Water. Two completion crews are operating on acreage dedicated to Antero Midstream, supporting 2 drilled, but uncompleted growth pads. Higher freshwater delivery volumes in the fourth quarter, combined with modest throughput growth net of expected curtailments are expected to drive high single-digit EBITDA growth quarter-over-quarter.

We also remain on track to complete the HG Water System Integration by year-end and realize all of the water synergies assumed in the acquisition. Both our legacy and HG water systems achieved 100% uptime in the third quarter, positioning us well for full operational integration.

Looking ahead to 2027, these growth pads and water system integration are expected to drive double-digit year-over-year EBITDA growth.

Turning to our newly established regional pipeline business unit. We continued construction on the East Side Express. Since announcing the project last quarter, we have seen interest from multiple downstream counterparties seeking access to AR's natural gas through the pipeline. This interest underscores a shift in industry dynamics in Appalachia.

Unlike the producer push expansions of the past, today's opportunities are driven by demand pull from LNG facilities, utilities and growing electrification of America.

Importantly, unlike the previous wave of expansions that were farmed out to third parties, Antero Midstream now has the scale, balance sheet capacity and expertise to pursue these opportunities. We are actively pursuing several billion dollars in potential projects, including our first North-South directed regional pipeline, laterals to natural gas demand centers and integrated power opportunities.

As existing third-party agreements expire, we plan to leverage our infrastructure to own more of the value chain previously served by those providers. This strategy positions AM to play an integrated role in expanding AR's margins and to serve as the industrial builder in West Virginia, delivering customized infrastructure that connects growing demand with investment-grade producers.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Justin.

Justin Agnew

Thanks, Mike. I'll start with our third quarter highlights on Slide #4. Gathering and compression volumes increased by 19% and 17%, respectively. As noted in the press release, throughput was impacted by approximately 10 Bcf of curtailments during the quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $291 million, which was a 3% increase year-over-year. Capital invested during the quarter was $51 million, which marked another quarter of EBITDA growth and flat capital.

Free cash flow after dividends was $449 million, including $377 million of Clearwater litigation proceeds. This free cash flow was utilized to reduce debt by over $400 million during the quarter and accelerate share repurchases once our leverage target was achieved.

I'll conclude our prepared remarks on Slide #5, which highlights the balance sheet improvement over the last several years. As of September 30, our leverage was 2.8x, below our 3x target and in line with this time last year. As you can see on the right-hand side of the page, our leverage is down a full turn from its peak at year-end 2022 after our first dry gas gathering acquisition.

Since then, we have integrated 5 acquisitions totaling $1.4 billion, invested over $1 billion in organic growth capital, increased throughput by over 1 Bcf a day and reduced our share count by over 6 million shares.

Looking ahead to 2027, we expect a step-up in capital as we invest over $100 million of capital incremental to our organic program related to East Side Express and other regional gas demand projects.

Even after these in-hand growth projects, we still have significant balance sheet capacity to pursue the large infrastructure opportunity set, Mike referenced in his comments, while still maintaining peer-leading leverage and debt levels.

In summary, our balance sheet, consistent free cash flow generation and integrated platform position us well to capitalize on the growing need for natural gas infrastructure in Appalachia.

With that, operator, we are ready to begin the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

Preguntas y respuestas

John Mackay

I appreciate the updates on East Side Express and some of the early comments on North-South. Last call, you guys were still, I guess, kind of codifying the scope on East-West. So just maybe if you can kind of share a little bit more of what the latest thoughts are in terms of size, total CapEx. And then off of that, any early read on North-South would be interesting.

Justin Agnew

Yes, really no change to the scope of that project, call it, $200 million to $300 million. Again, that's going to be roughly 7 interconnects with downstream pipelines really positioning for that demand pull industry dynamic we talked about. So really no change in that scope. Everything remains kind of on track, on schedule for that late '28, 2029 time frame.

Michael Kennedy

Yes. And then on the North-South, I don't know if you -- John, if you caught the AR call, but we're having so much interest in the Clarington market. I think it'd be natural and very opportunistic for us to build a North-South from our field up into that area.

John Mackay

And maybe just any time line on that?

Michael Kennedy

Yes, over the next couple of years. We're actually scoping it right now, having a little initial capital right now assessing it. But I think you'll probably see us FID that in 2027.

John Mackay

All right. That's clear. And then second one for me. I appreciate the commentary on kind of double-digit EBITDA growth into next year. Obviously, the third quarter and kind of implied fourth quarter are softer. You guys touched on that in terms of the curtailments and some of the kind of more actual physical constraints. But maybe just walk through a little bit of the bridge for us in terms of kind of underlying volumes versus margin versus anything else.

Michael Kennedy

Yes. I don't think the fourth quarter is soft. It will be an all-time high EBITDA for the company by quite a margin or quite an amount. So not soft there. And then '27 we will have 10% on that. You saw AR's guidance at 15 to 20 Bcf, but it's still at 4.3 Bcfe versus the 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, I believe it was for AR. So you'll have that growth in throughput.

Obviously, that's a net number. So you have a little more on that on gross for AM. And then you have those 2 water projects, the completion of the DUCs on the AR legacy acreage. So that will result in substantial water volume growth. So that will drive the Q4 up in that high single-digit EBITDA growth quarter-over-quarter.

And then looking at next year at that 4.5 that AR guided, you'll see that obviously come through in the throughput. And then you'll have more freshwater delivery as we run 2 completion crews flat for the year. So you put that all together and you get the double-digit EBITDA growth year-over-year, '27 over '26.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. It appears we have no additional questions. We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll hand the floor to management for any closing or final remarks.

Daniel Katzenberg

I'd like to thank you for joining the earnings conference call this quarter. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out. Have a good day.

Operator

This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.