Conferencia de resultados del 2T 2026 de Epsilon Energy (EPSN): crecimiento del petróleo y aceleración en Parkman

Puntos clave

• Epsilon Energy afirmó que el segundo trimestre de 2026 marcó su punto más bajo de producción del año. La dirección prevé un crecimiento trimestral consecutivo de la producción hasta finales de año, impulsado principalmente por los volúmenes de petróleo crudo de la cuenca de Powder River.
• El punto medio de las previsiones de la dirección para todo el año 2026 implica un crecimiento interanual de la producción total en el rango alto del 10% y un aumento de casi el 200% en los volúmenes de petróleo.
• Dos pozos de Niobrara puestos en producción en julio alcanzaron cada uno un pico de producción diaria superior a 900 barriles de petróleo y están rindiendo por encima de las expectativas de la empresa.
• La perforación del programa de tres pozos de Parkman se completó con aproximadamente un mes de adelanto respecto a lo previsto. Las terminaciones están planificadas para el tercer trimestre, y se espera la producción inicial en el cuarto trimestre de 2026.
• Epsilon redujo su deuda en 10 millones de dólares durante el primer semestre de 2026. La empresa prevé utilizar su línea de crédito revolvente para financiar parcialmente un mayor volumen de inversión, manteniendo al mismo tiempo su objetivo de apalancamiento de 1,5x EBITDA.
• La dirección afirmó que la corrección en su comunicado de resultados afectó únicamente a la presentación del beneficio neto ajustado y del BPA ajustado en la tabla de resumen, sin impacto alguno en los resultados GAAP, los flujos de caja o la rentabilidad económica del negocio.

Datos financieros y operativos clave

Rendimiento operativo y del negocio

Cuenca de Powder River

Se prevé que la cuenca de Powder River sea la principal contribuyente al crecimiento a corto plazo de Epsilon. La empresa completó dos pozos laterales de dos millas en Niobrara adquiridos a Peak, colocando la totalidad de las 100 etapas planificadas y los volúmenes de arena previstos en el diseño. Ambos pozos entraron en producción en julio y cada uno alcanzó un pico de producción superior a 900 barriles de petróleo al día.

Epsilon también aceleró la perforación de su programa de tres pozos de Parkman tras asegurar la disponibilidad de un equipo de perforación. Los tres pozos alcanzaron las profundidades previstas, con terminaciones programadas para más adelante en el tercer trimestre y se prevé que la primera producción comience en el cuarto trimestre. La empresa conservó una participación de explotación superior al 70% tras reducir su participación desde el rango medio del 90%.

En el condado de Converse, se espera que la construcción de una instalación de suministro y embalse de agua de 1 millón de barriles comience en el tercer trimestre. El diseño revisado permitirá la futura captación y reciclaje del agua producida, lo que según prevé la dirección reducirá los costes de suministro y procesamiento de agua.

Cuenca Pérmica

El primer pozo de Barnett de tres millas de Epsilon inició el proceso de retorno de fluidos (flowback) en junio. La dirección afirmó que el rendimiento está en línea con la curva tipo previa a la perforación, mientras que el equipo de operaciones informó de que el retorno de fluidos inicial normalizado superó las expectativas.

El pozo es el noveno perforado en la superficie arrendada. El operador ha propuesto dos pozos de compensación en Barnett; se prevé que la perforación comience más adelante en 2026 y que la terminación esté programada para el primer trimestre de 2027.

Se ha perforado un pozo de evaluación en Woodford en el que Epsilon no participó, y su terminación está prevista para finales de agosto. La dirección señaló que un resultado favorable podría ampliar el inventario de perforación asociado a sus terrenos más allá de la formación Barnett.

Marcellus

La producción en Pensilvania se vio afectada por recortes planificados y ajustes de presión en el sistema de recolección. La dirección explicó que esta estrategia tenía como objetivo limitar las ventas durante los períodos en que los netbacks en la cuenca caían por debajo de los 2 dólares y preservar la producción para momentos de mayor demanda.

Se han perforado cinco pozos que representan 0,4 pozos netos, con trabajos de terminación planificados para el segundo semestre de 2026. La primera producción está programada para diciembre y la dirección prevé que aporte 6,5 millones de pies cúbicos netos al día. Se espera que cuatro pozos aumenten la capacidad inicial en el sistema de recolección de Auburn en aproximadamente entre 80 millones y 90 millones de pies cúbicos al día.

Previsiones de la dirección

Epsilon publicó por primera vez sus previsiones de producción para el segundo semestre de 2026. La dirección prevé un crecimiento trimestral consecutivo significativo durante el resto del año, registrándose el mayor incremento en el cuarto trimestre, cuando los pozos de Parkman comiencen a aportar producción.

Se espera que el gasto de capital del tercer trimestre aumente sustancialmente debido al desarrollo de Parkman, la perforación en la cuenca Pérmica, las instalaciones del condado de Converse y las preparaciones para una mayor actividad a principios de 2027. La empresa prevé financiar parcialmente esta inversión mediante su línea de crédito revolvente.

Para 2027, la dirección prevé una actividad de desarrollo superior a la de 2026 en las zonas de Powder River, la cuenca Pérmica y Marcellus. El objetivo para publicar las previsiones para todo el año 2027 es el primer trimestre de 2027, antes de que la empresa presente sus resultados del cierre del ejercicio 2026.

Riesgos y puntos a vigilar

• Una parte sustancial del gasto de capital de 2026 no contribuirá a la producción hasta el cuarto trimestre o 2027, lo que aumenta la sensibilidad a los plazos de ejecución de los proyectos.
• La producción de Marcellus sigue expuesta a recortes en el suministro, ajustes de presión en el sistema de recolección, el agotamiento natural y la debilidad de los precios regionales del gas.
• El calendario de los nuevos volúmenes de Marcellus depende de los socios operadores. La dirección señaló que sus previsiones incluyen un margen de error ante posibles retrasos.
• Epsilon prevé hacer uso de su línea de crédito revolvente durante la fase de aceleración de las inversiones, aunque la dirección mantiene su compromiso con el objetivo de apalancamiento de 1,5x EBITDA.
• El crecimiento futuro en las cuencas Pérmica y de Marcellus sigue sujeto a los planes finales de operadores terceros.

Puntos destacados del turno de preguntas y respuestas con analistas

La dirección prevé ofrecer estimaciones anuales de producción a principios de cada ejercicio y afinarlas trimestralmente. Se esperan las previsiones para todo el año 2027 en el primer trimestre de 2027.

En cuanto a las coberturas, Epsilon tiene la intención de mantener una cobertura de aproximadamente el 50% de los volúmenes en producción desarrollados y probados durante los próximos 18 meses. La empresa no prevé actualmente un nivel de protección sobre el gas superior a ese objetivo y espera añadir coberturas a medida que se consolide la certeza sobre los volúmenes incrementales de Marcellus.

La dirección describió la venta parcial de participaciones de explotación como una herramienta de gestión de capital más que como una estrategia fija. Epsilon podría recurrir a futuras ventas para mantener el gasto de desarrollo dentro de su objetivo de apalancamiento, preservando al mismo tiempo su exposición a los proyectos de crecimiento.

La empresa también está negociando intercambios de superficie, laterales más largos y alianzas con operadores de mayor tamaño en la cuenca de Powder River. La dirección confía en ofrecer una actualización más precisa en el próximo trimestre, aunque no reveló acuerdos específicos.

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Thank you. Good day and welcome to the Epsilon Energy Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to your President and CEO, Jason Stabell. Please go ahead.

Jason Stabell

Good morning. Before we begin our prepared remarks, we would like to address the press release correction issued yesterday. The correction was limited to the presentation of adjusted net income and adjusted EPS in the summary table. The reconciliation later in the release reflected the correct treatment. After identifying the inconsistency, we promptly updated the release. There was no impact to our reported GAAP results, cash flows, or the underlying economics of the business. Thank you, Operator.

I'll now turn the call over to Andrew Williamson, our CFO.

J. Williamson

Thank you, Operator. And on behalf of the management team, I would like to welcome all of you to today's conference call to review Epsilon's Second Quarter 2026 Financial and Operational Results. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our comments may include forward-looking statements. It should be noted that a variety of factors could cause Epsilon's actual results to differ materially from the anticipated results or expectations expressed in these forward-looking statements.

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the earnings release that we issued yesterday for disclosures on forward-looking statements and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jason Stabell, our Chief Executive Officer.

Jason Stabell

Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. Joining me today are Andrew Williamson, our CFO, and Henry Clanton, our COO. We will be available for questions following our prepared remarks. Our message this quarter remains consistent with what we communicated in May. We are focused on execution, and I am pleased to report that our major operational initiatives have progressed on schedule and on budget. We have started to execute our development plan as expected and anticipate meaningful quarter-over-quarter production growth through the remainder of 2026, primarily driven by crude volumes in the Powder River Basin.

As a result of the progress we have made across the portfolio, for the first time, we are providing production guidance for the second half of 2026. The anticipated increase in volumes reflects the commencement of production from several high-return oil projects that have either recently been brought online or are expected to begin contributing over the coming months. We refer you to a presentation posted to our website this morning for additional details on our guidance.

In the Powder River Basin, execution on our acquired operated assets has been particularly strong. Our 2 Niobrara DUC completions were completed during the quarter and brought online in July. Early production results have exceeded our type curve expectations. In addition, drilling operations on our 3-well Parkman pad were completed approximately 1 month ahead of plan. These high working interest Parkman wells are now on track to begin production during the fourth quarter and represent the biggest contributor to our anticipated growth profile.

In the Permian Basin, our first 3-mile Barnett well was placed on flowback during June and is currently performing in line with our pre-drill type curve. The successful execution of this well marks another important milestone in the development of the project and provides further confidence in the operator's transition to longer lateral development. Looking ahead, the operator has informed us that 2 additional Barnett wells are expected to be drilled during the second half of 2026, with completion scheduled for the first quarter of 2027.

In addition, the Woodford appraisal well, in which Epsilon elected not to participate, has now been drilled and is scheduled for completion later this month. A successful result could meaningfully expand the future drilling inventory associated with our acreage position and provide additional development opportunities beyond the Barnett formation. In Pennsylvania, production from our Marcellus assets was impacted during the quarter by planned temporary curtailments associated with operating pressure adjustments on our gathering system, will make room on the system for newly drilled wells scheduled to turn in line late in the fourth quarter of this year.

From an organizational standpoint, we have largely completed the transition period associated with the Peak acquisition. The integration of personnel, systems, and field operations has progressed well, and I want to thank our employees for their efforts throughout this process. The successful integration of the acquired assets has allowed our team to remain focused on execution while continuing to identify opportunities to improve operational performance and efficiencies.

Overall, we are accomplishing what we set out to do at the start of the year. Our development program is advancing as planned, our balance sheet remains strong, and we expect to deliver meaningful quarter-over-quarter production growth through the remainder of 2026, as reflected in the guidance provided today. Andrew and Henry will provide additional detail on our major operational initiatives, production outlook, and financial position.

Andrew, I'll turn it over to you.

J. Williamson

Thanks, Jason. On the recent results, the second quarter was a trough for us this year on production, as new development in the Powder River Basin and Permian started to contribute late in the quarter. As Jason mentioned, we anticipate growth from here as Q2 activity is reflected in Q3, and escalates through year-end and into 2027 with continued activity across the portfolio. The biggest impact this year will come in the fourth quarter with our first Parkman volumes in the Powder River Basin. The midpoint of full-year 2026 guidance shows high teens year-over-year growth in total production and almost 200% year-over-year growth in oil volumes.

On the capital side, also as shown in our guidance figures, we plan to spend meaningfully more in the third quarter than we have in past quarters, with the high-interest Parkman development already mentioned, together with drilling activity in the Permian, and facilities build-out in one of our core areas in Converse County, Wyoming, and preparation for a ramp and development activity there early next year. Well over half of our full year capital spending will not contribute to results until the fourth quarter, with over a third showing up in results starting next year, including the facilities build-out I mentioned.

We made several moves during the second quarter in preparation for these investments, including the non-core Marcellus overriding royalty interest sale and an interest sell-down in this quarter's Parkman development, which still leaves us with over 70% interest in the project. The previously disclosed potential sale of our Durango office building did not close, but we expect to reevaluate a potential sale later this year. Over the first half of the year, we paid down our debt balance by $10 million. We expect to utilize the revolver to partially fund the investment ramp starting this quarter. That said, we're very comfortable we can execute our plans while staying within our target leverage level of 1.5x EBITDA.

Looking ahead to next year, we're planning to continue to invest for growth, with development activity in excess of 2026 expected across all 3 of our primary areas. The biggest component will be the Powder River Basin, with additional operated development targeting the Parkman. We are also in discussions with some of the larger operators in the basin to pull forward some of our shale inventory there in partnerships, allowing us to develop cost-efficiently. The Permian and Marcellus assets are expected to exhibit growth next year as well, subject to the final plans of our operating partners.

Now to Henry.

Henry Clanton

Thank you, Andrew, and good morning to everyone. Today I'd like to begin by highlighting some recent operations on our Powder River Basin assets. The company has successfully stimulated both of the 2-mile Niobrara laterals in Campbell County, Wyoming, we acquired from Peak. The frac went as planned with all design sand placed and the 100 stages completed. The wells were flowed back under a managed pressure procedure to technically guide the choke management decisions. Both wells continue to flow up casing on a reduced choke and are performing above expectation, with peak daily rates achieved in excess of 900 barrels of oil a day from each well.

Different from the timing provided in the prior earnings call, we were able to accelerate the drilling of our 3-well Parkman program in July. This being our first drilling operation in the basin, I'm pleased to report that all 3 wells were successfully drilled to their planned depths. The completions are scheduled for later this quarter. As we've done with the Niobrara wells, all production facility work that could be built out prior to placing the wells on production has been completed. Initial production is expected in the fourth quarter.

In Converse County, the 1 million barrel [ lined ] water supply and impoundment facility has finalized with contractor bids under evaluation. Construction is expected to begin in Q3. The original design of the impoundment ponds have been modified to allow for intake and recycling of produced water in the future, which will reduce the total water sourcing and processing costs moving forward. In follow-up to the production enhancement initiatives, the ops team has replaced 16 compression units to date, removing $65,000 a month of operating expenses moving forward. There are several more units to be downsized before the year end when total savings will exceed $100,000 a month. As expected, there have been no decreases to existing production as a result of the compressor downsizing program.

Lots going on in our Permian Basin Barnett project in Ector County. Drill out of the recent 3-mile Barnett lateral went as expected and the well has been placed on production. This is the 9th well drilled on the acreage and the early flowback period has exceeded the normalized type curve expectations and is exhibiting excellent productivity consistent with the existing wells on the acreage. This week we have received well proposals from the operator for 2 offsets to this lateral. These wells have been moved up in the drilling schedule by the operator with plans to spud them later this month.

Finally, the Woodford appraisal test mentioned on the last earnings call has been drilled with completion scheduled for later this month as well. In the Marcellus, as reported last quarter, the operators completed the drilling of a scheduled 5 wells, 0.4 net. Completion operations are planned for the second half of this year. First production from this development is scheduled in December and forecasted to add 6.5 million cubic foot a day net. 4 of the new drills will gather through the Auburn system and are forecasted to increase throughput in the midstream system by approximately 80 to 90 million cubic foot a day upon initial completion.

Now I'll turn it back to Jason.

Jason Stabell

Thanks, guys. Operator, we can now open the lines for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question today will come from Anthony Perala with Punch & Associates. Please go ahead.

Preguntas y respuestas

Anthony Perala

Nice to see the first guidance you've been able to give for production for this year speaks to the shifting the business from non-op to now having the operating piece. What's the best way to think about the approach to guidance going forward into 2027 and beyond?

J. Williamson

Yes, thanks, Anthony. I think the next piece that we'll come out with will be full year '27. And we'll do that, targeting to do that in the first quarter of next year before we post year-end '26 results.

Anthony Perala

Okay, sounds good. So targeting it to be annually, kind of at the beginning of every year.

J. Williamson

That's right, and refined throughout the year with quarters.

Anthony Perala

Okay. A couple questions on the gas business in Pennsylvania. Any more details you could give on the maintenance activities there would be helpful. And then, I'm not sure if you have it available, but, kind of, how you delineate the falloff in production quarter-over-quarter? How much was attributable to the maintenance activities and how much was just your typical decline rates that we would have seen otherwise?

Jason Stabell

Yes, thanks for that question. This is Jason. If you look at our business in Appalachia, our operator has done a really good job in our view, and we've been in agreement with the approach that in the shoulder seasons or periods where we have prolonged pricing netbacks in Appalachia that are sub-$2, we've had curtailments. And the flip side of that, you'll notice in the first quarter we had a monster gas production cash flow quarter because we worked at the opposite, maximize production when we had realized prices of almost $5.50 versus the $1.80 in the second quarter.

So we, kind of, look at it on an annual basis over time. We're trying to maximize production with the operator in high demand, in-basin seasons, and then curtailing as appropriate when we think we're selling gas at depressed prices that are not sustained. As far as delineating, because the way that these volumes were curtailed was a increase in the operating pressure of our gathering line, it's hard to attribute an exact breakdown between what's natural depletion versus what's attributable to that pressure build back on the wells. The farther we are from where that pressure is applied, the more of an impact there is.

Roughly, we think we've been in depletion mode in PA since the wells were brought online last year in the first quarter and will be in depletion mode until the fourth quarter of this year when we start to see those incremental volumes that we addressed earlier in the report today.

Anthony Perala

Okay, that's helpful. And any updates from the operator? It stayed consistent on bringing those wells on in Q4. I guess I'd pair the other piece of the question is, I've seen a lot about just the, kind, of super El Niño and what that does for winter weather and it's biased warmer based on prior analog years when you've seen that type of weather pattern. Any thoughts around the operator potentially pushing the tails out of Q4? And any thoughts on maybe looking to add more hedges given, kind of, forecast for a warmer winter here?

Jason Stabell

I'll let Andrew address the hedging question. We think we've built appropriate, in our guidance, we've, kind of, built appropriate margin of error to adjust for any slide that the operator has on those volumes. And on the hedging?

J. Williamson

Yes, Anthony, we target -- in terms of volume coverage, as I've mentioned in previous calls, we target 50% PDP hedged over the next 18 months. It also coincides with the hedge covenant on our credit facility. So what we've done on gas is use collars to put that production on.

With oil, as I've mentioned before, we took a big hedge book from Peak in the deal in the fourth quarter of last year. The majority of the incremental volumes we have on between now and the end of the year and into '27 as well, or a big chunk of them are our oil volumes, and so we've strategically started to add there starting in the fourth quarter of this year on crude. On the gas, I think we'll just continue to keep coverage as we've had it at that 50% of PDP. So we'll add again once we have some certainty on those incremental volumes coming on that we just talked about in the Marcellus late this year. So to answer your question directly, no plans to put protection on in excess of, kind of, the mandate that we have on 50% coverage.

Anthony Perala

Okay, that's great. That's very helpful color. Then shifting over to the Powder. Nice realization on the working interest sell-down. Just curious on what the market's like for that when you were marketing it and if you could give, kind of, a peek maybe into 2027 what those 6 wells, what your, kind of, net interest is right now and if you may look to tap that market again?

Jason Stabell

As a non-op player, we've been very aware of the AFE wellbore market. It's pretty active across, particularly in the Permian, but there is activity as well in the Rockies, in the Marcellus. So when we -- on that Parkman sell-down, I mean, there were a couple of drivers on that. And Andrew can add some additional color. One, we felt like if we could get a nice premium to our AFE, it really juices our cash-on-cash returns. And as Henry mentioned, these were our first 3 wells in the basin, we -- drilling operation wise, so really we felt okay taking our working interest down from a mid-90s into the low 70s here as a risk mitigant as well. Going forward, we have high working interest Parkman wells. We may consider sell-downs, but I think we feel pretty good about the well design and the performance. So I feel good on that.

J. Williamson

Yes. I'd add to that. Anthony, it's a tool to use to rightsize the capital program. So all of the things that we're planning on doing in the medium term, Powder, Parkman, Barnett development in the Permian, and then continued activity in the Marcellus, those are highly coveted in that market and so we know we can go there to rightsize that capital program and that's to stay within our leverage target that we discussed and still drive growth with that rightsized program, if that makes sense. So it's just a tool that we use. So no definitive plans there to sell down next year to answer your question directly, but it's a pretty quick cycle action if we want to go that route.

Anthony Perala

Yes, that makes a lot of sense. That's great. And then it seems like things were brought forward about a month, I think initially it was December for first production. Now you're assuming, kind of, 60 days that fall into 2026. Was it more a timing thing? Was it efficiency on the drill side? Just any details on that would be helpful.

Jason Stabell

Yes, I may flip this one to Henry. Henry, you want to take that one?

Henry Clanton

Yes, so related to the 3-well Parkman program in Wyoming, we had an opportunity to capture some rig availability. We had all of our permits in place. We had locations built, got our personnel ready, and so we acted upon it.

Anthony Perala

That's great. What is -- what's the market like for availability right now and looking into 2027? Yes, just that.

Henry Clanton

Yes, so in Wyoming, sorry, this is Tim. In Wyoming, yes, from a rig perspective, the rig count in the 2 counties that we're active in, Campbell and Converse, remain in about the 13 rigs running range. 9 of those are focused on the shales, Niobrara and Mowry, the other 4 are the sandstones. And so we're seeing stable activity in our area of the Powder River at this point.

Anthony Perala

And then the last one, I think, Henry, you had mentioned in your prepared remarks, just that you are having active conversations with other operators to maybe pull forward some development in a cost-effective nature, I think is the phrase that you used. Any more detail around that would be helpful just to frame up what that program could look like over the next couple of years.

Jason Stabell

Yes, Anthony, I'll take that one. This is Jason. We intimated on the call last time that we have a large acreage position in the Powder. There are opportunities for swaps and trades and partnerships. So we've had a number of inbounds about that. We're -- I'd say we're farther along in a couple of those discussions, but at this point, not in a position to really provide details, but I'd expect over the next quarter we're going to have something more definitive to provide to you guys.

But essentially this would be areas where we can either swap acreage to extend lateral lengths and/or participate alongside scaled operators and some of the other resource plays in the basin where they have existing infrastructure that's going to allow us to participate at a enhanced cost structure. So more to come on that, but I think that's been -- that's kind of gravy from what our base evaluation was on this Powder asset, because as you know, we've stressed our focus is going to be on the Parkman. But there are some nice opportunities that are also going to be available to us in the shale, the Niobrara in particular, going forward.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Showing no further questions. This will conclude our question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back over to Jason Stabell for any closing remarks.

Jason Stabell

Thank you, Operator. I want to thank everyone for joining us today, and as always, if you have additional questions or comments, please reach out to us. I appreciate your support. Have a great day.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect your lines.