Tesla misses Q4 delivery estimates as annual sales fall for second straight year

Tesla on Friday released its Q4 production and delivery report, with 418,227 deliveries for the quarter, which is well below Wall Street’s 426,000 estimate, according to StreetAccount.

The report also missed the company’s own analyst survey, posted on December 29, which pointed to 422,850 vehicles and a 15% year-over-year drop.

In the report, Tesla said it built 434,358 vehicles during the quarter, 5.5% away from the 459,445 vehicles produced in the same period of 2024. For the full year, deliveries crashed by 8.6% to 1.64 million, down from 1.79 million in 2024, and Tesla’s annual production reached 1.65 million, which is barely ahead of deliveries and far from past growth streaks.

Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y carry the quarter as Cybertruck stays minor

Tesla said it delivered 406,585 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in Q4, making up about 97% of all units delivered in the quarter, while the rest came from Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck, which altogether were 11,642 vehicles.

In 2023, Tesla claimed more than 1 million reservations for the Cybertruck, but that has sadly not translated into volume sales, and the angular steel pickup has also not become a major contributor as of Q4 2025.

In Q3, Cryptopolitan reported that Elon Musk’s SpaceX reportedly bought tens of millions of dollars worth of Cybertrucks, but still, that didn’t help Q4 earnings much.

Competition also continued to intensify for Tesla across global markets, mostly from BYD in China, Kia and Hyundai in South Korea, and Volkswagen across Europe. BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s largest EV seller for the calendar year. In a Thursday statement, BYD said sales rose 28% to 2.26 million vehicles.

Politics, incentives, and regional pressure are still weighing on Tesla’s performance

Beyond vehicles, Tesla deployed 14.2 gigawatt hours of battery energy storage products in the fourth quarter, following 12.5 GWh in Q3.

The company will release its full financial results for Q4 on January 28, but did acknowledge that vehicle sales in 2025 were indeed affected by Donald Trump’s decision to end a federal EV incentive by September 30, earlier than planned.

As you should know, Elon spent the first quarter leading the administration’s DOGE initiative to reduce the federal workforce. He later endorsed Germany’s extremist anti-immigrant AfD party and supported British activist Tommy Robinson.

In recent weeks, Elon also called for ending the European Union. Consumer backlash followed in both Europe and the United States.

Despite that response, Tesla shares rallied late in the year. The stock jumped 40% in the third quarter and hit a record in mid-December. Elon bought $1 billion in shares in September. In November, shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package granting him more control. Critics said the plan set no limits on political activity or time commitment.

Cryptopolitan has earlier reported that Tesla’s European registrations fell 39% in the first eleven months of 2025, according to ACEA. BYD registrations rose 240% in the region. Battery electric vehicles made up about 16% of new European car sales.

Analysts at Cannacord Genuity wrote that adoption “is rising quickly in emerging markets such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil.”

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