Dave (DAVE) Earnings Call zu Q3 2026: Umsatzwachstum beschleunigt sich, Prognose angehoben

Dave (NASDAQ: DAVE) verzeichnete im zum 30. September 2026 beendeten dritten Quartal ein beschleunigtes Umsatzwachstum, gestützt auf einen Rekordzuwachs bei den Mitgliedern, eine höhere ExtraCash-Monetarisierung sowie verbesserte Kreditkennzahlen im September. Die Unternehmensführung hob die Prognose für das Gesamtjahr 2026 für Umsatz, bereinigtes EBITDA und das bereinigte verwässerte Ergebnis je Aktie an.

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Der Umsatz im dritten Quartal stieg im Jahresvergleich um 31 % und gegenüber dem Vorquartal um nahezu 16 % auf 198 Mio. US-Dollar. Die Zahl der monatlich transagierenden Mitglieder erhöhte sich um 18 % auf 3,15 Millionen, während der annualisierte ARPU um 11 % auf 251 US-Dollar zulegte.
• Dave gewann einen Rekordwert von 1,1 Millionen neuen Mitgliedern hinzu, ein Plus von 35 % im Jahresvergleich. Die Kundenakquisitionskosten (CAC) stiegen um 14 % auf 22 US-Dollar; laut Unternehmensführung lag die Amortisationszeit jedoch weiterhin unter vier Monaten.
• Das ExtraCash-Kreditvergabevolumen erreichte 2,5 Mrd. US-Dollar, was einem Anstieg von 23 % im Jahresvergleich und 9 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal entspricht. Nach der Einführung von CashAI v6.0 im September erreichte der durchschnittliche ExtraCash-Betrag 225 US-Dollar, und die Verzugsquote nach 28 Tagen sank auf unter 2 %.
• Der Non-GAAP-Bruttogewinn stieg um 33 % auf 138 Mio. US-Dollar. Das bereinigte EBITDA kletterte um 39 % auf 82 Mio. US-Dollar, was einer Marge von 41 % gegenüber 39 % im Vorjahreszeitraum entspricht.
• Das Management hob die Prognose für 2026 auf einen Umsatz von 746 bis 750 Mio. US-Dollar, ein bereinigtes EBITDA von 327 bis 330 Mio. US-Dollar und ein bereinigtes verwässertes Ergebnis je Aktie von 17,45 bis 17,65 US-Dollar an.
• Dave Flex verzeichnete eine frühe produktübergreifende Nutzung mit ExtraCash; das Management rechnet für 2026 jedoch mit keinen nennenswerten Flex-Umsätzen und erwartet erst in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2027 einen bedeutenderen Beitrag.

Wichtigste Finanzdaten

Geschäftliche und operative Entwicklung

Mitgliederwachstum und Wirtschaftlichkeit der Akquisition

Dave steigerte die Ausgaben für Werbung und Aktivierung im Jahresvergleich um 48 % und im Quartalsvergleich um 37 % auf 28 Mio. US-Dollar. Die Marketingausgaben stiegen um mehr als 50 %, während die Kundenakquisitionskosten (CAC) um 14 % auf 22 US-Dollar zulegten. Das Management erklärte, die Renditen auf zusätzliche Marketingausgaben lägen weiterhin bei einem Vielfachen der Kapitalkosten des Unternehmens.

Rund 30 % der Neukundengewinnung basierten weiterhin auf Mundpropaganda. Dave führte die gestiegene Werbeeffizienz zudem auf KI-generierte Werbemittel mit seinem Bären-Maskottchen zurück. Nach Angaben des Managements kann das Unternehmen nun schneller große Mengen neuer Werbemittel für TV- und Social-Media-Kanäle produzieren.

Der annualisierte Bruttogewinn pro monatlich transagierendem Mitglied erreichte 175 US-Dollar. Laut Management erreichen neuere Kohorten im Allgemeinen nach etwa sechs Monaten ein reiferes Monetarisierungsniveau, was das ARPU-Wachstum mit zunehmender Verweildauer der Rekord-Neuzugänge aus dem dritten Quartal stützt.

ExtraCash-Wachstum und Monetarisierung

Das Kreditvergabevolumen bei ExtraCash stieg auf 2,5 Mrd. US-Dollar, was auf annualisierter Exit-Rate-Basis nahezu 10 Mrd. US-Dollar entspricht. Der durchschnittliche ExtraCash-Betrag stieg im Jahresvergleich um 5 % auf 218 US-Dollar im Quartal und erreichte im September 225 US-Dollar.

Die Bruttomonetarisierung vor Kreditausfällen lag im September bei rund 7 %, verglichen mit 6,4 % im zweiten Quartal. Der Umsatz pro vergebenem Betrag stieg gegenüber Q2 um 16 %. Für das gesamte Quartal erreichte die Nettomonetarisierung 5,2 %, was einem Anstieg von rund 40 Basispunkten im Jahresvergleich entspricht und den höchsten Wert seit fünf Jahren markiert.

Dave begann mit dem Testen von ExtraCash-Limits von über 600 US-Dollar, wobei einige Kunden bis zu 1.000 US-Dollar erreichten. Bestehende Mitglieder mit Gebührendeckelung, die für mehr als 600 US-Dollar infrage kommen, können gegen eine Gebühr von 5 % eine zusätzliche Auszahlung erhalten. Das Management erwartet, dass höhere Limits und der Wegfall von Gebührendeckelungsbeschränkungen das durchschnittliche Ausgabevolumen sowie den Bruttogewinn pro Mitglied stützen werden.

Die Abonnementeinnahmen stiegen im Jahresvergleich um 74 %, da mehr Mitglieder den Tarif für 3 US-Dollar pro Monat wählten.

Kreditperformance und CashAI v6.0

Die Verzugsquote nach 28 Tagen lag im dritten Quartal bei 2,09 %. Bei den im September vergebenen Krediten, als CashAI v6.0 nahezu das gesamte Volumen abdeckte, fiel die Quote auf unter 2 %. Nach Angaben des Managements lag die bisherige Entwicklung im vierten Quartal auf dem Niveau des Septembers.

Die Static-Pool-Verlustraten entwickelten sich im Jahresvergleich stabil bis rückläufig. Die Risikovorsorge im Kreditgeschäft in Höhe von 37 Mio. US-Dollar lag jedoch über der Prognose des Unternehmens, da frühere Verbesserungen im Inkassowesen zwar die Rückzahlungen beschleunigten, die letztendlichen Kreditausfälle jedoch nicht so stark wie ursprünglich erwartet reduzierten. Dave kalibrierte sein Rückstellungsmodell neu, um den veränderten zeitlichen Verlauf der Rückzahlungen zu berücksichtigen.

Dave Flex und Dave Card

Das Ausgabenvolumen über die Dave Card betrug 533 Mio. US-Dollar, ein Anstieg von 5 % im Jahresvergleich. Das Unternehmen hat seine Produktinvestitionen in Richtung Dave Flex verlagert, dessen Mitgliederzahl im dritten Quartal von wenigen Tausend auf eine fünfstellige Zahl von Mitgliedern anwuchs.

Das Management betonte, dass sich Flex und ExtraCash eher ergänzen als kannibalisieren. Bestehende ExtraCash-Nutzer, die Flex einführten, behielten ihre ExtraCash-Nutzung im Allgemeinen bei, während über Flex gewonnene Kunden ExtraCash ebenfalls in hohem Maße übernahmen. Dave plant, den Akquisitions-Funnel und die Stückkostenökonomie zu optimieren, bevor Flex im Jahr 2027 breiter skaliert wird.

Finanzierung und Kapitalallokation

Dave erhöhte die ExtraCash-Finanzierungskapazität über die Coastal Community Bank von 225 Mio. auf 325 Mio. US-Dollar. Coastal finanzierte zum Quartalsende Forderungen in Höhe von rund 159 Mio. US-Dollar, verglichen mit 93 Mio. US-Dollar im zweiten Quartal. Dave behält die wirtschaftlichen Erträge und das Ausfallrisiko.

Das Unternehmen geht davon aus, Coastal für den überwiegenden Teil der Kreditvergaben zu nutzen und die verbleibende Mitgliedermigration Anfang 2027 abzuschließen. Die Refinanzierungskosten über Coastal schmälerten die Bruttomarge in Q3 im Quartalsvergleich um rund 100 Basispunkte, setzten jedoch zuvor in Forderungen gebundene Liquidität frei.

Dave setzte im dritten Quartal rund 20 Mio. US-Dollar über Nettoabwicklungen von Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) und Rückkäufe am offenen Markt ein. Im Rahmen der Rückkaufgenehmigung verblieben 88 Mio. US-Dollar. Anfang Oktober zahlte das Unternehmen die im Rahmen seiner Victory-Park-Kreditfazilität ausstehenden 75 Mio. US-Dollar zurück.

Prognose des Managements

In der Mitte der Spanne impliziert der Ausblick einen Umsatz im vierten Quartal von rund 221 Mio. US-Dollar, was einem Anstieg von rund 35 % im Jahresvergleich entspricht, sowie eine bereinigte EBITDA-Marge von rund 46 %. Für das Gesamtjahr 2026 rechnet das Management mit einer Ausweitung der bereinigten EBITDA-Marge um etwa 300 Basispunkte.

Der Ausblick unterstellt höhere Marketinginvestitionen in Q4 als in Q3, eine fortgesetzte Unterstützung des ARPU durch die Preisgestaltung, das CashAI-Underwriting, den Abonnementmix sowie die Reifung der Kohorten. Zudem wird davon ausgegangen, dass die Non-GAAP-Bruttomarge in Q4 das Niveau von Q2 übertrifft; dabei wird ein effektiver Steuersatz von 23 % zugrunde gelegt. Nennenswerte Umsätze aus Dave Flex sind nicht enthalten.

Risiken und wichtige Beobachtungspunkte

• Die Risikovorsorge im Kreditgeschäft überstieg die vorherige Prognose des Managements, da frühe Verbesserungen beim Rückzahlungsverhalten nicht zu der erwarteten Reduzierung der endgültigen Verluste führten.
• Dave trägt weiterhin das Ausfallrisiko für die über Coastal finanzierten Forderungen, obwohl das Programm den direkten Refinanzierungsbedarf des Unternehmens verringert.
• Die Non-GAAP-Bruttomarge sank in Q3 im Quartalsvergleich aufgrund früher als erwartet anfallender Coastal-Finanzierungskosten und der Risikovorsorge im Kreditgeschäft.
• Die aktienbasierte Vergütung belief sich auf 22 Mio. US-Dollar, einschließlich eines einmaligen Nachholeffekts von rund 4 Mio. US-Dollar im Zusammenhang mit höheren erwarteten Auszahlungen bei leistungsorientierten Vergütungen.
• Die sonstigen betrieblichen Aufwendungen enthielten 6 Mio. US-Dollar an einmaligen Kosten für Vergleiche und Rechtsstreitigkeiten. Das Management teilte mit, dass es keine neuen Entwicklungen bezüglich der Angelegenheit mit dem Justizministerium (Department of Justice) gebe und Dave seine Position weiterhin verteidige.
• Dave Flex befindet sich weiterhin in einem frühen Stadium; für 2026 werden keine nennenswerten Umsätze erwartet, während eine breitere Skalierung für 2027 geplant ist.

Höhepunkte der Fragerunde für Analysten

• Qualität der Neumitglieder: Das Management erklärte, das höhere Neukundenvolumen habe weder die Konversionsrate noch die Kundenqualität beeinträchtigt. Die Amortisationszeiten blieben trotz der größeren Skalierung bei rund vier Monaten.
• ARPU-Entwicklungspotenzial: Dave nannte Änderungen bei der Gebührendeckelung, höhere ExtraCash-Limits, das Abonnentenwachstum, die Reifung der Kohorten und Dave Flex als wichtigste Monetarisierungstreiber. Das Management wies darauf hin, dass reifere Kohorten unter sonst gleichen Bedingungen ein ARPU-Wachstum von annähernd 13 % erbracht hätten.
• Gebührenänderungen und Kundenabwanderung: Das Management berichtete, dass die Anhebung der Gebührenobergrenze von 15 auf 20 US-Dollar zu keiner zusätzlichen Abwanderung geführt habe. Die Kunden erhielten im Gegenzug für geringfügig höhere Gebühren höhere Limits.
• Kreditrisikobereitschaft: Dave erklärte, der Schwerpunkt liege weiterhin auf der Maximierung des Bruttogewinns und nicht auf einer wesentlichen Veränderung der Portfoliostruktur. Die wesentliche Chance für eine verstärkte Kreditvergabe bestehe bei Kunden mit höheren Limits, einschließlich ausgewählter Limits von bis zu 1.000 US-Dollar.
• Wachstum der Kreditvergabe: Das Management führte die jüngste Verlangsamung des ExtraCash-Kreditvergabewachstums eher auf Beschränkungen durch Gebührendeckelungen als auf strengere Vergaberichtlinien zurück. Es geht davon aus, dass sich das Vergabewachstum mit dem Wegfall dieser Beschränkungen beschleunigen wird.
• Mittelfristiger Wachstumsrahmen: Das Management bekräftigte seine Zuversicht für ein Mitgliederwachstum im mittleren Zehnprozentbereich und ein ARPU-Wachstum im niedrigen zweistelligen Prozentbereich auf mittlere Sicht, getragen von der Akquisitionsleistung und den Monetarisierungsinitiativen.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz zu den Geschäftsergebnissen

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's conference call to discuss Dave's financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. Joining us today are Dave's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Jason Wilk; and the company's CFO and COO, Mr. Kyle Beilman.

By now, everyone should have access to the third quarter 2026 earnings press release, which was issued today after the market closed. The release is available in the Investor Relations section of Dave's website at investors.dave.com. This call will also be available for webcast replay on the company's website. Please note that this call is being recorded.

Certain comments made during this conference call and webcast are considered forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain known and unknown risks and uncertainties as well as assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in these forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements are also subject to other risks and uncertainties that are described from time to time in the company's filings with the SEC. Do not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which are being made only as of the date of this call. The company undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

The company's presentation also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, non-GAAP gross profit, non-GAAP gross margin, adjusted earnings per share and compensation expense, excluding stock-based compensation as supplemental measures of the performance of our business.

All non-GAAP measures have been reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in accordance with SEC rules. You will find reconciliation tables and other important information in the earnings press release and Form 8-K furnished to the SEC, which are available in the Investor Relations section of Dave's website at investors.dave.com.

[Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Dave's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Jason Wilk. Please go ahead.

Jason Wilk

Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us. Q3 was another strong quarter for Dave with revenue growth accelerating to 31% year-over-year, driven by accelerating member growth and continued ARPU expansion, all while delivering strong credit performance. Based on these results and the momentum we see across the business, we are once again raising our full year guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS.

There are 3 key takeaways from today's call. First, credit performance was strong in Q3 and improved further in September, following the full rollout of CashAI v6.0 with record ExtraCash sizes and lower 28-DPD rates. Second, our customer acquisition engine is delivering record scale and improving unit economics, making our growth investments increasingly attractive. Lastly, Dave Flex is showing encouraging early traction with better-than-expected acquisition costs and strong cross-product adoption with ExtraCash that suggests significant upside to baseline member lifetime value.

Turning to our growth pillars. Starting with member acquisition. We added a record 1.1 million new members, up 35% year-over-year. But the bigger story is how efficiently we scaled. Marketing spend increased more than 50%, while CAC rose just 14%, which was outpaced by improvements in member lifetime value, thus maintaining our attractive returns at much higher volume.

As we've said before, we invest to maximize gross profit dollars rather than minimize CAC. With returns on incremental marketing investment at multiples of our cost of capital, we invested beyond the higher plan we outlined last year. We delivered record non-GAAP gross profit of $138 million, up 33% year-over-year and annualized gross profit per MTM increased approximately $19 to $175. As our record new member cohorts build tenure, we expect their increasing engagement and monetization to support growth into 2027.

Moving to our second pillar, engagement through ExtraCash. Originations reached $2.5 billion, up 23% year-over-year and 9% sequentially, and we exited the quarter at nearly $10 billion in annualized originations. Growth reflected more credit active members and a 5% year-on-year increase in average ExtraCash size to $218. Following the full rollout of CashAI v6.0 in September, average ExtraCash size grew to $225, while our 28-day past due rate on September originations fell below 2%, improving from 2.09% for the quarter. This strong credit performance has continued into Q4.

We also began testing ExtraCash limits beyond $600 with early results showing a meaningful increase in gross profit per member. Notably, existing fee cap members eligible for more than $600 will be enabled higher limits via an additional draw at a 5% fee, which we believe now puts all customers roughly on the same fee structure. We believe higher limits in combination with this additional draw monetization and strong credit performance sets us up well to continue delivering higher gross profit per member moving forward.

Moving to our third pillar, deepening engagement. Dave Card spend was $533 million, up 5% year-over-year. As we discussed previously, we have deliberately shifted our focus from new debit-focused initiatives to our new Dave Flex card, which we believe has more differentiation in the market to win top-of-wallet spend, given our advantages in underwriting and the strong value propositions of the product.

During Q3, we grew Dave Flex adoption from single to double-digit thousands of members through both cross-selling to existing members and direct customer acquisition at better-than-expected acquisition costs. While results are still early, we are encouraged that the products are proving complementary. Existing ExtraCash members cross-sold to Dave Flex are retaining and monetizing well ahead of baseline, driving significant potential LTV upside. Members acquired directly through Dave Flex marketing are subsequently adopting ExtraCash and members who may not yet be approved for Dave Flex are adopting ExtraCash.

Overall, our ecosystem approach is playing out as expected, and we plan to continue to optimize the acquisition funnel and unit economics ahead of scaling more broadly in 2027. We do not expect meaningful Dave Flex revenue in 2026 and none is embedded in our guidance. We expect a more significant contribution in the second half of 2027.

Before turning it over to Kyle, a couple of strategic updates. First, we recently amended our agreement with Coastal Community Bank to expand our funding capacity, giving us greater flexibility to invest in growth and return capital to shareholders. Kyle will cover the specifics. On the DOJ matter, we have no updates and continue to vigorously defend our position.

In closing, we're accelerating member growth, expanding monetization and improving credit outcomes, which are all coming together to drive record performance. Thanks to the entire Dave team for another strong quarter.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Kyle.

Kyle Beilman

Thanks, Jason, and good afternoon, everyone. Our Q3 results show the durability of our model at increased scale. We increased acquisition investment beyond our prior plan while maintaining strong credit performance and growing adjusted EBITDA faster than revenue. In addition, the Coastal funding transition freed up liquidity to support growth and capital return.

I'll cover the financial results, explain the provision and gross margin drivers and close with our capital position and raised outlook. The earnings supplement on our IR site provides a detailed KPI breakdown.

Starting with revenue. Total revenue was $198 million, accelerating to 31% year-over-year and nearly 16% sequentially. Growth was driven by an 18% increase in monthly transacting members to 3.15 million, an acceleration from Q2, together with an 11% growth rate in the annualized ARPU to $251. Newer members begin at lower ARPU and expand with tenure, so a record new member cohort weighs on the average. Even with that mix shift and faster MTM growth, monetization improved as the fee cap changes and CashAI v6.0 supported larger ExtraCash amounts and higher revenue per origination.

One note on comparability. Beginning this quarter, we no longer include, in our calculation of MTMs, members whose only monthly activity was low engagement, non-monetized activity related to Goals accounts. This change affects MTMs, ARPU and gross profit per MTM and prior periods have been recast to ensure comparability.

On pricing, September's gross monetization rate, which measures ExtraCash revenue per dollar originated before credit losses, was approximately 7% compared with 6.4% for Q2. Combined with a larger average ExtraCash size in September, this drove a 16% increase in revenue per origination versus Q2. These results capture a full month of fee cap changes and most of the rollout of CashAI v6.0. For the full quarter, those gains held up after credit losses. Our net monetization rate was 5.2%, up about 40 basis points year-over-year and our highest in 5 years.

Beyond ExtraCash, subscription revenue provides another monetization tailwind, growing 74% year-over-year as more of the base joins at the $3 a month price point. With pricing, underwriting, subscription mix and seasoning of our recent new member cohorts all contributing, we believe we are well positioned to sustain MTM growth and ARPU expansion into 2027.

Turning to gross profit. Non-GAAP gross profit was $138 million, up 33% year-over-year, and non-GAAP gross margin was 70%, up from 69% a year ago and down from 72% in Q2. Two items drove the sequential change. First, Coastal funding costs, which accounted for about 100 basis points of the change from Q2. Most of that was planned, but the transition moved faster than expected, so more receivables entered the program sooner and the related costs came through earlier. These costs are included in gross margin, but excluded from adjusted EBITDA and the transition freed up significant liquidity tied up in ExtraCash receivables.

Second is the provision. Provision for credit losses was $37 million or about 1.5% of ExtraCash originations, in line with the year ago rate but above our forecast. Provision reflects portfolio growth, mix and credit performance, so it can move differently from static pool delinquency and loss rates, which we believe more directly measure credit quality. Static pool loss rates were flat to down year-over-year.

However, our prior provision forecast assumed a larger improvement based on stronger early repayment performance we saw coming out of the spring following collections enhancements we made. Those enhancements brought repayments in sooner, but didn't reduce ultimate losses as much as the early data implied. We've recalibrated our forecast to reflect these new repayment timing patterns and our updated outlook incorporates them.

September was our strongest month of the quarter with a 28-day past due rate below 2%. Q4 to date is tracking in line with September, supporting our expectation that the quarter's 28-day past due rate will remain below 2%. Our updated forecast points to meaningfully better ultimate loss rates, which, together with our pricing changes, supports our expectation for Q4 non-GAAP gross margin to exceed Q2 levels.

Now working down the P&L. Advertising and activation expense was $28 million, up 48% year-over-year and 37% sequentially. As Jason noted, attractive returns supported investments above our prior plan. We expect a modest further increase in marketing investment in Q4.

Compensation and benefits was $43 million, including $22 million of stock-based compensation. Stock-based compensation increased as our stronger full year outlook raised expected payouts on performance-based awards, including a onetime catch-up of about $4 million for prior quarters. Excluding stock-based compensation, compensation was $21 million, up roughly 21% year-over-year and 10% sequentially. The increase reflects the targeted investments in product development, marketing and AI we outlined last quarter.

Other operating expenses were $14 million, including $6 million of nonrecurring legal settlement and litigation expenses excluded from adjusted results. On an adjusted basis, fixed expenses grew more slowly than revenue and declined to approximately 17% of revenue from 18% a year ago. We expect operating leverage to continue building as revenue scales.

Pulling it all together on profitability, adjusted EBITDA was $82 million, up 39% year-over-year at a 41% margin, up from 39% a year ago. GAAP net income was $64 million or $3.30 per diluted share, including $26 million of noncash gains from the remeasurement of warrant and earn-out liabilities. Those gains are excluded from adjusted results and the underlying instruments expire in January of 2027. The year ago GAAP comparison included a significant tax benefit, primarily from releasing a valuation allowance.

Adjusted net income was $60 million and adjusted diluted EPS was $4.39, down 7% and 1% year-over-year, respectively. Both comparisons reflect taxes. Last year's third quarter included a tax benefit in adjusted results, while this quarter reflects a more normalized effective tax rate. Before taxes, adjusted earnings grew roughly in line with adjusted EBITDA and a 5% lower adjusted diluted share count helped per-share results.

Turning to capital. We ended Q3 with $315 million of cash, investments and restricted cash, up from $254 million at the end of the second quarter. We generated over $81 million in operating cash flow, while additional Coastal funding reduced our direct funding needs. As Jason noted, we recently amended our Coastal program agreement, increasing our ExtraCash funding capacity from $225 million to $325 million.

Coastal funded approximately $159 million of receivables at quarter end, up from $93 million at the end of the second quarter. We expect to complete the remaining member migration in early 2027, allowing us to make fuller use of the expanded capacity. As a reminder, Coastal funds the receivables while we retain the underlying economics and credit risk exposure.

With respect to capital return, we deployed approximately $20 million during the quarter to reduce our share count through restricted stock unit net settlements and open market repurchases, leaving $88 million available under our repurchase authorization.

In early October, we also repaid the $75 million outstanding under our Victory Park debt facility. Adjusting September 30 cash for only that repayment leaves approximately $240 million of cash, investments and restricted cash with no borrowings remaining under that facility. Our capital priorities remain unchanged: invest in organic growth at attractive returns and repurchase shares opportunistically to create long-term per-share value.

Turning to our updated 2026 outlook. We are raising guidance across all 3 metrics. We now expect revenue of $746 million to $750 million, up from $725 million to $735 million. We expect adjusted EBITDA of $327 million to $330 million, up from $315 million to $325 million, and we expect adjusted diluted EPS of $17.45 to $17.65, up from $17 to $17.50, and this assumes a 23% effective tax rate.

At the midpoint, our outlook implies fourth quarter revenue of approximately $221 million, up roughly 35% year-over-year and a further acceleration from 31% in Q3 and a fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 46%. For the full year, that represents approximately 300 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.

The outlook assumes higher marketing investment in Q4 than in Q3, continued ARPU support from pricing, CashAI underwriting, subscription mix and cohort seasoning and the Q4 gross margin expansion I described. It also assumes no meaningful revenue contribution from Dave Flex.

In closing, we are raising our full year outlook with revenue growth accelerating again in Q4 while investing more in acquisition at attractive returns. Improving credit performance and stronger monetization support our Q4 margin outlook, while greater funding capacity and liquidity give us flexibility to invest in growth and capital return. We believe these factors position us well heading into 2027.

With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from the line of Devin Ryan with Citizens Bank.

Fragen und Antworten

Devin Ryan

A question just on the record new member additions. Obviously, good to see here. Can you talk about what you're doing different to drive them? Obviously, higher marketing dollars, but CAC went up a little bit, but still at a very -- looks like a positive payback. So can you just talk a little bit about that? And then also, just the seasoning that you typically see since this is a big number. As we look out over the next 4 quarters, as they mature, like, how much ARPU uplift do you see typically over kind of a 12-month look forward just so we can kind of think about modeling this since it's a big number?

Jason Wilk

Yes. Thanks, Devin. I appreciate it. I can speak to the first part of the question with new members. Yes, I'd say it's just really business as usual with our existing channels. We're scaling up the channels that work best for us from TV to social media. And as you know, 30% of our acquisition is coming from word of mouth, which has not changed at all with these increased levels of scale, which gives us a lot of promise going into the next several years here.

I'd say the one lift though is from our further investments in AI-borne creative. We have a very recognizable brand mascot. We spent a lot of time, effort and energy developing that. And AI is able to create tens of thousands of creatives within minutes. It tends to be that most of these networks, they like new and fresh creative. And previously, it took us several months to make one ad, and now we can make ads within a matter of seconds using our proprietary bear mascot with what is an incredibly recognizable dave.com domain name. So I just speak to that being really good signs, and we love to see the incrementality that we're driving here.

And I'll let Kyle speak to the incremental ARPU expansion as these cohorts season.

Kyle Beilman

So look, in terms of how they season, we tend to see, call it, in that post 6-month window, things tend to sort of approach more what we would consider kind of a terminal kind of monetization. And we don't provide explicit breakouts around that.

But I think that we're just really excited to see all the ARPU levers we have kind of stacking that give us a lot of confidence in just the runway of ARPU and kind of getting us to that low double-digit ARPU growth trajectory that we've talked a lot about over the last couple of years. And that comes in the form of the fee cap changes that we completed in Q3, the higher limits that we're in the process of offering. We talked about, in September, that, that number was about $225, and we see there to be a lot of continued upside in that by lifting the higher end of the limit spectrum.

And then we also have the subscription fee revenue that's growing. I think that was up about 74% year-over-year. And then you layer on the Flex opportunity on top of all that. And on the monetization side of the equation, we're feeling very good. But I'd say, all else equal, you probably would have seen us closer to that kind of 13-ish percent number if we had cohorts kind of in that seasoned range that we would kind of expect things to mature to if you're following that.

Devin Ryan

Yes. Great. I appreciate the color there. And then as my follow-up, I just want to get a little bit of maybe early learnings from Flex. Good to hear that you're seeing some demand there and expansion. The question is, are you seeing these members? I know there's overlap with existing ExtraCash members. Is it additive in terms of the activity level that you're seeing from the members? Or is it all cannibalistic where they're using -- they're now using Flex instead of ExtraCash? Just trying to get a sense of like how to think about -- are they complementing each other? Or in some ways, are they competing with each other?

Jason Wilk

Thanks, Devin. I'd say that's one of the most encouraging parts of the product launch thus far is the complementary nature of the 2 business lines. We are seeing customers that are existing ExtraCash users who adopt Flex continue to use ExtraCash almost in its entirety from their prior limits.

But what's also encouraging, as we mentioned on the call, is customers we are acquiring directly into Flex, both the ones that are approved also adopt ExtraCash at a very high rate, and also the ones that we turned down adopt ExtraCash at a very high rate, which turns it into much more of a low-and-grow strategy where we can hang on to that customer and upsell them Flex later.

So there's a lot to like. And as we just continue to develop the cohorts, we're excited to ramp up that product further in 2027. But definitely not cannibalistic.

Operator

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Patrick Moley with Piper Sandler.

Patrick Moley

So Kyle, on gross monetization, I think you said it reached about 7% in September as the legacy fee caps came off, 5.2% for the quarter. So is that 7% the fully loaded right now? Or is there more that we should expect as that $20 cap cohort rolls off?

Kyle Beilman

Thanks, Patrick. It's about 7% for September. And then in terms of total unit monetization on the $225 base, you can kind of infer what the average revenue per ExtraCash is. So the quarterly average was about 6.4% for gross monetization versus that September figure. So you can kind of see what the impact of that fee change was relative to baseline there. I think that September metric is a pretty good indication for where we see the Q4 numbers shake out.

Operator

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Chris Zhang with UBS.

Chao Zhang

My first question was on the acquisition cost for the quarter, but I think it's more -- we're actually more interested in what it looks like in September. And in particular, I remember recently, you shared some stats on the returns or the paybacks on the marginal acquisition dollars. And maybe can you give us a sense or an update of the CAC for the September onwards cohorts? And on the margin, what kind of returns or ROIs you're looking at for the marginal acquisition dollars?

Jason Wilk

Yes. Thanks, Chris. So just to reiterate, so CAC did go to $22, but the gross profit per user went up even faster by $8 to $175. And so it is still a sub 4-month payback even at this increased scale with a very slight increase to CAC. I mean the reality is the marginal improvements in LTV over the last couple of years certainly significantly overshadowed the small increases in CAC to the point that these investment returns are still very, very attractive with much higher increases in CAC compared to this. So these are really healthy trends, and we are encouraged and excited to see the results here.

Kyle Beilman

And just to add to that, Chris, in terms of the marginal CAC, I mean, as you can imagine, they're higher than the sort of baseline average, but we are investing aggressively at this level. I think as you can see, the amount of dollars we're putting to work here, that the returns on an incremental basis are multiples of our cost of capital. And so things continue to look very, very healthy at the top of funnel.

Chao Zhang

All right, appreciate it. And my follow-up is on the loss rates. And I guess maybe conceptually, can you give us a sense of potentially, under CashAI v6.0, how much have you -- if you have, how much have you already kind of loosened the loss rates at all just to kind of widen the originations in order to maximize the gross profit dollars? And then maybe looking ahead, just compared to the take rate, how much are you willing to kind of loosen the loss rates going forward? And maybe like also kind of on the marginal concept, if you could give us a sense of maybe what the loss rate looks like on the marginal cohort, maybe the lowest credit quality cohort, and how high the losses are you willing to tolerate in order to just maximize the gross profit dollars, that would be helpful.

Kyle Beilman

So maybe just to start with the September figures because I think those are a pretty good indication of the fee model changes as well as the impact of v6, which was -- it covered nearly all the originations in September. And so what we talked about is the 28-DPD rate for September being below that 2% level, which should pull through to really solid sequential improvements to our 121-day loss rates.

And look, we're always kind of considering different optimizations within the portfolio to maximize gross profit. I would say that we're -- there's always room to make improvements. But I think in terms of where the margins are at, we're pretty happy there, and I wouldn't expect to see us make any material deviations from these kind of unit economics to maximize a different outcome than what we've been sort of orienting around over the last, call it, quarter or 2 here. I hope that helps.

But again, we're always kind of hunting for value, but very comfortable with where the unit economics lie, especially coming out of September based on the dynamics that we've talked about.

Chao Zhang

All right. Appreciate it, Kyle. Definitely encouraging to see the improvement in September.

Operator

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Connor Allen with JPMorgan.

Connor Allen

I also wanted to ask about members and your investment into marketing. I was curious, as the kind of top of funnel is widening, perhaps you're investing into it, are you seeing any change or surprises relative to the conversion rate to transacting members? Has that dynamic changed at all versus your expectation?

Kyle Beilman

I mean the short answer is no. I mean I think that's captured in our payback periods. and they continue to stay in that, call it, 4, 4-ish month range there and at this higher level of scale. So again, as we talked about, things look very, very healthy, and we're certainly not seeing any kind of deterioration in the quality of customers that we're acquiring at this higher level of scale. Things look, again, very, very healthy at the top of funnel.

Jason Wilk

Which, Connor, I think just speaks to the size of the TAM in general, further supporting how large it is.

Connor Allen

Understood. Got you. Maybe another one on just the fee change -- the fee structure changes. I'm curious whether you've seen any -- as you've made these changes, has there been any impact on churn rates or customer behavior? It seems like no, just from the way you've described it, but anything you'd add there just around customer behavior relative to the fee changes you've made?

Jason Wilk

No, nothing there. I mean specifically the fee change from the $15 to $20 fee cap, there's been no incremental churn as a result of that. The customers that we do give have a benefit in the sense that for a slightly higher fee, they are getting a higher limit. And so we know that our customers would gladly trade a slightly higher amount of money to get more limit. And we did note in the call today that customers going beyond $600 will now have access to an additional draw who were previously fee-capped at a 5% fee. And so we now, for all intents and purposes, have all customers on roughly the same fee schedule at this point for sort of modeling simplicity moving forward.

Connor Allen

And that lets you expand the kind of total cap that you can offer, which matters a lot to the customers. Cool. Appreciate it.

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Ryan Tomasello with KBW.

Ryan Tomasello

Can you just put a finer point on what drove the provision recalibration and the deviation in repayment performance relative to your assumptions? Anything concerning there on the credit side, particularly with respect to the new member cohorts, given you've been leaning into growth? And then does that weaker provision performance run-rate into your go-forward assumptions? If you can tell us what you're baking in for the 4Q provision, that would be helpful.

Kyle Beilman

Yes. Thanks, Ryan. So look, as we talked about, credit performance in general was very solid in the quarter. When we look at the provision, early -- coming out of last quarter, what we saw was really solid early DPD data that we had taken into our provision forecast that was pretty early on in its sort of repayment curve. Ultimately, the losses didn't fall quite as much as what that early strength had suggested.

And so instead of them being improving, they were roughly flat and that kind of drove up our expectation or we sort of under-modeled the provision for this quarter. And so we've recalibrated our extrapolation factors based on the new repayment timing curves. And what has happened there was we rolled out some servicing and collection improvements that effectively pulled forward some of the collection dollars that typically fall into the tail. And we've since recalibrated that, that's now captured in the revised outlook.

And I guess to put a bit of a finer point on it, when you look at the relationship between the 28-DPD rate and the 120-DPD rate, that typically matures at -- historically had matured in kind of that low 30s range where it would reduce into the low 30s between 28 and 120. And now we're seeing that kind of come in, in the high 20s. So that's what we're capturing in our modeling. And again, that's all been captured in our revised outlook.

Ryan Tomasello

And then just a follow-up on the fee caps. As you look at across the member base, just kind of high level, how much runway do you think is out there on average advance sizes, particularly with the higher advanced limit cohort that you already have? Any way to frame how that looks entering next year? And relative to the $225 you cited for September, do you expect growth off of that for the full fourth quarter?

Jason Wilk

So Ryan, I'd say, certainly, we believe a lot of room to run now that we've extended limits beyond $600 with some early test customers already reaching a $1,000 limit, both on ExtraCash as well as with Flex. The $225, expect to still see some growth there in Q4. September was the first full month of v6, which really produced the $225 result in combination with the higher than $600 credit limit customers as well as just improvements to underwriting in general with v6.

So as that continues to season, similar with the v5.5, we think there's a good amount of room to run here still. And as Flex matures, that also will be a tailwind for average originations per user as we -- again, to Devin's point, we're not seeing any cannibalization with those products. So expect the synergy to show up in positive cumulative consumption of credit.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Adib Choudhury with William Blair.

Adib Choudhury

So it looks like the ExtraCash origination dollar year-over-year growth has been decelerating for the last couple of quarters. I just wanted to ask, is that a function of a tighter underwriting or a change in the credit box or aperture? Or is there something else you would call out there?

Kyle Beilman

No. I mean, I just -- it's definitely not a change in sort of risk aperture by any means. As we've talked about, credit performance remains really solid. I mean it's more just a function that we haven't been growing that quite as fast as we had historically because we were constrained around the fee cap to grow average origination sizes per customer at the rate that we did last year, for instance.

And so I think with that fee cap constraint eliminated now, we would expect to grow origination dollars on top of or at a higher rate than what we have been, call it, over the last couple of quarters where it's largely more [ tracked ] to customer growth as opposed to being able to unlock higher average origination sizes per customer. So all that being said, I would expect to see an acceleration there now that this fee cap constraint has been removed.

Adib Choudhury

Got it. And as a follow-up, I guess as we're getting closer to '27, could you kind of remind us about the line of sight you guys have towards achieving the mid-teens member growth and low double-digit ARPU monetization growth that's embedded in your longer-term growth algorithm?

Kyle Beilman

Yes. I mean we continue to feel very good about that over the medium term here. Nothing about our performance thus far calls that into question. We're very excited about what's going on with the overall performance that we're seeing within the portfolio to drive originations growth. Top of funnel is working exceptionally well. We have the monetization levers that I walked through earlier. And so we're feeling quite confident in the outlook.

Jason Wilk

I would just add that the more months we have here or more quarters we have of this accelerated member acquisition, as those customers season over time, that will set us up well for further growth into 2027. So a strong fourth quarter and third quarter really are going to be accretive for us for next year and the years following.

Operator

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Adam Frisch with Evercore. Our next question comes from the line of Jacob Stephan with Lake Street Capital Markets.

Jacob Stephan

Maybe just first, I want to touch on the ARPU expansion quarter-over-quarter, 9%. Maybe if you could just kind of piece out a little bit more in detail on the moving parts of the fee cap removal plus the higher limits that you're advancing to customers. And just remind us the timing of some of those moves in Q2 when you remove the fee cap, et cetera.

Kyle Beilman

Jacob, thanks for the question. I mean, effectively, we were testing -- well, when we take a step back, we had eliminated the fee cap for new customers back in the second quarter, and we had begun the migration of existing customers to either the $20 cap or the fee cap elimination altogether, call it, by late August is when that change was fully implemented. That sort of coincided with the ramping of v6 over that same period of time as well.

And so again, that's why we've tried to highlight September as very instructive on the sort of exit rate for the quarter and the baseline for expectations moving forward. But effectively, the time line is ramping throughout the third quarter on both v6 as well as the pricing adjustments with a full quarter's benefit -- or excuse me, a full month's benefit in September.

Jason Wilk

And for clarity, existing fee cap customers that are looking for credit in addition to the $600 we are giving them today, we will issue them credit via an additional draw of which they'll have to pay the 5% for that additional credit. And that's what I meant on the call that, that roughly puts all the cohorts on the same pricing as of -- once we have that fully rolled out by the end of this quarter.

Jacob Stephan

Okay. Got it. That makes sense. And then maybe just on the Coastal Community facility being upsized today. I think in the past, you've said that you were planning to fund some of the originations off your own balance sheet. Coastal is going to fund the rest. But is that strategy changing at all? How are you thinking about using Coastal going forward?

Kyle Beilman

I would expect to use them for the vast majority of originations. I mean we have the flexibility to balance sheet more of it ourselves, but we really like this arrangement that we've struck with them. It just provides us a lot of kind of flexibility from a capital allocation standpoint at an attractive cost of funds. And so it's something that we're quite happy with, and we'll look to likely use to its full extent for the foreseeable future.

Operator

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Reggie Smith with Loop Capital.

Reginald Lawrence Smith

I just listened to your last response, and I was thinking about the new cohort of users that have come on. And so you've obviously relaxed the fees. And so I'm curious what you're seeing in terms of initial activation as you kind of think about the various kind of cohorts. I would imagine being able to offer -- and maybe you're not doing it, but are you offering more credit on the first transaction? And have you seen an uptick in early engagement? And anything you can talk to around that? And then I have one follow-up about your collections.

Jason Wilk

Reggie, I'd say for the most part, because we have more of a low-and-grow strategy, newer customers tend to get approved for lower amounts than existing customers that we know that we have a longer tenure with. I'd say most of the improvements in first-time credit offers have come from just improvements in overall underwriting.

The big change with respect to new customer offers came with our new pricing model when we moved to the $5 minimum 5% pricing a couple of years ago. It really impacts the customers that are growing beyond the limits of which the fee cap was causing some constraints where we are seeing some obviously positive uplift to ARPU and origination size per user.

Reginald Lawrence Smith

Got it. Okay. And then just thinking about -- it sounds like -- and I'm multitasking here, so I may have gotten this wrong, but it sounds like you pulled forward some of your collections. And I'm curious, I guess, like you, I would assume that, that would carry forward, but for some reason, it's not. I'm curious, are people shutting down the accounts? Like what would explain that fall off toward the back of the collection period? Are you seeing that folks just aren't receiving income in that account and aren't active in that account, that linked account anymore? Or what's driving that?

Kyle Beilman

Yes. I mean that tends to be the typical thing that you see from a loss perspective as people abandon the accounts or have stopped their income coming into those accounts that we underwrote. I would say nothing has really changed. And the pull forward is really, again, a function of the servicing and kind of collections upgrades that we put into place. And it's -- we expected those results to carry through.

But in hindsight, we didn't really change much around the decisioning process from an underwriting perspective to really expect meaningful loss rate impact. And I think that was just a learning for us and how we kind of think about what's servicing and collections impact versus, say, the decisioning where decisioning is probably more of a driver for ultimate loss rate as opposed to the servicing and collection instruments.

Jason Wilk

Reggie, the big takeaway is that loss rate from a provision perspective were still flat to down year-over-year. But as an operator and also an investor, excited about September performance with 28-DPD rate being below 2%. I mean there's a lot to like about that. And that was, again, the first full month of v6, which has been a big focus area of the company to get that rolled out. And that's what I would be using to assess the credit performance of the company.

Reginald Lawrence Smith

Yes. I think to echo, I think, what Chris was getting at earlier, I think we see the DQ rate go down, and we hear about the underwriting, that's great. I think what we're wondering is like why not push it. And obviously, we get, you just have the Coastal Bank agreement and you want to be very cautious there and careful. But it just seems like there's probably more risk on the table -- or more opportunity that's not necessarily being tapped into. And so -- it's great to see but...

Kyle Beilman

Yes. I mean just to speak to that, I think where we see that big opportunity is particularly at the higher end of our limit spectrum. And Jason talked about the ability to go up to $1,000 for those customers and being a little bit more risk on being able to help support more of their needs with the higher limits. And I don't think that really changes the sort of the margin picture to be dilutive at all. It's just ARPU-accretive and value proposition-accretive, which is why we're so excited about it.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. This concludes today's program. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.