Melco Resorts (MLCO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: 288 Mio. USD EBITDA, Aktienrückkäufe und Macau-Ausblick

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (NASDAQ: MLCO) wies für das dritte Quartal 2026 ein konzernweites bereinigtes Immobilien-EBITDA von rund 288 Millionen US-Dollar aus, beziehungsweise 298 Millionen US-Dollar nach Bereinigung um die VIP-Haltequote.
• Ungünstige VIP-Gewinnquoten im City of Dreams Macau verringerten das Immobilien-EBITDA um rund 14 Millionen US-Dollar. Günstige VIP-Gewinnquoten steuerten in Manila und Sri Lanka jeweils etwa 2 Millionen US-Dollar bei.
• Die täglichen Betriebsausgaben in Macao sanken auf rund 3,2 Millionen US-Dollar (inklusive House Advantage) und lagen damit unter der vorherigen Prognose des Unternehmens.
• Die Liquidität belief sich zum 30. September 2026 auf insgesamt rund 2 Milliarden US-Dollar, darunter 887 Millionen US-Dollar an Zahlungsmitteln, Zahlungsmitteläquivalenten und verfügungsbeschränkten liquiden Mitteln.
• Melco kaufte zwischen dem 1. Juli und dem 3. November rund 33,1 Millionen ADSs für 160 Millionen US-Dollar zurück. Die Gesamtrückkäufe im Jahr 2026 erreichten 47,1 Millionen ADSs für rund 236 Millionen US-Dollar.
• Das Management behielt den Schuldenabbau als oberste Priorität für den freien Cashflow bei. Eine Dividende könnte möglicherweise gegen Ende 2027 wieder aufgenommen werden, wobei der Zeitpunkt teilweise von Chancen bei Aktienrückkäufen abhängen wird.

Wichtigste Finanzdaten

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Der Markt in Macao blieb hochgradig wettbewerbsintensiv, während das Management die jüngste Nachfrage eher als „Delle“ („soft pocket“) denn als dauerhafte strukturelle Veränderung beschrieb. Lawrence Ho erklärte, dass der Markt in Macao im Oktober um 10 % zurückgegangen sei, und verwies auf den schwächeren chinesischen Konsum sowie andere mögliche Belastungsfaktoren. Dennoch schnitt Melco in diesem Monat nach Anpassungen bei der Vertriebsmannschaft und der Kundengewinnungsstrategie im August und September besser ab als der Gesamtmarkt in Macao.

Das Unternehmen strafft die Reinvestitionen in Kunden und führt einen neuen Player Club mit Schutzplanken ein, die die Margen sichern sollen. Das Management betonte, dass man nicht beabsichtige, Marktanteile durch unrentable Werbeausgaben anzustreben, sollte die Nachfrage schwach bleiben.

City of Dreams Manila erwirtschaftete ein bereinigtes Immobilien-EBITDA von rund 33 Millionen US-Dollar, was trotz des wirtschaftlichen Drucks auf den Philippinen im Vergleich zum Vorquartal weitgehend stabil war. City of Dreams Mediterranean und die Cyprus Satellite Casinos von Melco erzielten ihr erstes Quartals-EBITDA seit Betriebsbeginn auf Rekordhöhe. Sri Lanka befand sich weiterhin in der Hochlaufphase, während das Unternehmen die Kundenpräferenzen weiter evaluierte.

Das neu benannte REM Hotel ist mit 150 zusätzlichen Zimmern voll betriebsbereit. Das Management rechnet nur mit einem moderaten Anstieg der Ausgaben, da Personal umverteilt und Kosten an anderer Stelle rationalisiert wurden.

Im City of Dreams Macau sollen modernisierte Einzelhandels- und Gastronomiebereiche ab Ende 2026 schrittweise eröffnet werden. Ein wesentlicher Teil soll noch vor dem chinesischen Neujahrsfest den Betrieb aufnehmen, wobei die Bauarbeiten bis in den Sommer 2027 andauern.

Prognose des Managements

Für das vierte Quartal 2026 gab das Management folgende nicht-operative Prognose ab:

Die Prognose für den Zinsaufwand enthält rund 6 Millionen US-Dollar an Gebühren für die Glücksspielkonzession in Macao und die Glücksspiellizenz in Zypern sowie rund 5 Millionen US-Dollar an Finanzierungsleasingzinsen im Zusammenhang mit dem City of Dreams Manila.

Melco erwartet für das vierte Quartal 2026 CapEx von rund 95 Millionen US-Dollar, womit sich die Ausgaben für das Gesamtjahr auf etwa 375 Millionen US-Dollar belaufen. Für 2027 prognostiziert das Management CapEx von rund 275 Millionen US-Dollar und liegt damit unter seiner bisherigen Prognose.

Risiken und zu beobachtende Bereiche

Das Management stellte eine Schwäche in mehreren Kundensegmenten in Macao fest, nicht nur bei den umsatzstärksten Spielern. Es führte diese Schwäche in erster Linie auf die allgemeine Wirtschafts- und Konsumlage in China zurück, erwähnte jedoch auch mögliche Auswirkungen der Fußball-Weltmeisterschaft sowie ausländischer Steuerfragen.

Die hohe Wettbewerbsintensität bleibt ein zentrales Margenrisiko. Das Management warnte, dass aggressive Reinvestitionen in Kunden in der gesamten Branche die Auswirkung einer schwächeren Glücksspielnachfrage auf das EBITDA verstärken könnten.

Auch die Volatilität der VIP-Gewinnquote beeinträchtigte die Quartalsergebnisse, insbesondere im City of Dreams Macau. Zudem wurde die endgültige bilanzielle Behandlung der Investition in den Orientierungsfonds der Regierung von Macao von den Abschlussprüfern des Unternehmens weiterhin geprüft.

Highlights der Analysten-Fragerunde

Kapitalallokation: Das Management erklärte, dass die Konsolidierung der Unternehmensstruktur von Studio City derzeit keine Priorität habe. Der Schuldenabbau bleibe das Hauptziel, aber Melco beabsichtige, weiterhin ADSs zurückzukaufen, wenn die Bewertung auf dem aktuellen Niveau bleibe. Das Unternehmen hat im Jahr 2027 keine Fälligkeiten von Verbindlichkeiten, nachdem es vorrangige Anleihen in Höhe von 600 Millionen US-Dollar mit einem Kupon von 5,625 % und Fälligkeit 2027 zurückgezahlt hat.

Schuldenmanagement: Studio City hat vorrangige Anleihen in Höhe von 165 Millionen US-Dollar mit einem Kupon von 6,5 % und Fälligkeit 2028 zurückgezahlt, was hauptsächlich über die vorrangig besicherte Kreditfazilität und liquide Mittel finanziert wurde. Laut Melco haben sowohl diese Transaktion als auch die Tilgung der Anleihen für 2027 den Zinsaufwand verringert.

Zeitpunkt der Dividende: Das Management erklärte, dass eine Wiederaufnahme der Dividende möglicherweise gegen Ende 2027 angestrebt werde, der Zeitpunkt jedoch ungewiss bleibe, da Aktienrückkäufe weiterhin um Kapital konkurrieren könnten.

Investitionsverpflichtungen in Macao: Lawrence Ho sagte, dass die Anrechnung der Investition in den Orientierungsfonds der Regierung von Macao auf die verbindlichen Investitionsanforderungen eine gewisse Unsicherheit hinsichtlich der Notwendigkeit zusätzlicher Veranstaltungen oder anderer Ausgaben beseitige.

Margenschutz: Das Management konzentriert sich auf disziplinierte Reinvestitionen in Kunden, Änderungen bei der Vertriebsmannschaft und die Kontrolle der Betriebskosten. Es erwartet durch den vollen Betrieb des REM einen moderaten Kostenanstieg, sucht jedoch an anderer Stelle nach Einsparungen, um die Nettoauswirkung zu begrenzen.

Vollständiges Transkript der Ergebnissekonferenz

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in the Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call of Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited. [Operator Instructions]

Today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Jeanny Kim, Senior Vice President, Group Treasurer of Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited.

Jeanny Kim

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us today for our third quarter 2026 earnings call. On the call are Lawrence Ho, Geoff Davis, Evan Winkler and our Property Presidents in Macau, Manila and Cyprus.

Before we get started, please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Our actual results could differ from our anticipated results. In addition, we may discuss non-GAAP measures. Definitions and reconciliations of each of these measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the earnings release. Finally, please note that our supplementary earnings slides are posted on our Investor Relations website.

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Lawrence Ho.

Yau Ho

Thank you, Jeanny, and thank you all for joining us today. We continue to be confident in the long-term prospects of our business in Macau. We're focused on disciplined execution of our strategy to drive strong returns. Our distinctive product portfolio in Macau reflects the best in luxury and innovation. Coupled with the opening of our newly branded hotel REM and the renovation of our retail space at City of Dreams, we believe we're well positioned to capture the demands of our evolving customer base, supporting long-term growth.

We're also proud that Morpheus at City of Dreams has been awarded 3 Michelin Keys, becoming the first hotel in Macau and 1 of only 4 in Greater China to receive this distinction. This recognition underscores our commitment to delivering exceptional hospitality and guest experiences.

We continue to enhance our product offerings through improvements to City of Dreams retail and food and beverage experiences. Work is underway. We expect to unveil completed areas progressively from the end of this year, with a substantial portion coming on stream before Chinese New Year and construction continuing into the summer of 2027. Once complete, City of Dreams will offer the most interactive retail and dining experience in Macau, one that is truly second to none.

The Macau market remains extremely competitive. We have been increasingly disciplined in allocating resources with a sharper focus on customer acquisition and reinvestment and ensuring every dollar invested strengthens returns. Alongside these efforts, our performance has improved, with our business outperforming the broader Macau market in October.

Turning to the operations outside Macau. In the Philippines, despite broader economic pressures, City of Dreams Manila demonstrated resilience, with adjusted property EBITDA remaining steady at approximately $33 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the prior quarter. In Cyprus, City of Dreams Mediterranean and our Satellite Casinos continue to show strong growth, recording the highest quarterly EBITDA since the start of operations. In Sri Lanka, we continue to build on our understanding of the market and customer preferences as we ramp up operations.

With that, I turn the call over to Geoff.

Geoffrey Davis

Thank you, Lawrence. Our group-wide adjusted property EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was approximately $288 million. Adjusted for VIP hold, our adjusted property EBITDA was approximately $298 million. Unfavorable VIP win rates at City of Dreams Macau negatively impacted property EBITDA by approximately $14 million, partially offset by favorable VIP win rates at City of Dreams Manila and Sri Lanka, which positively impacted property EBITDA by approximately $2 million at each property.

Total daily OpEx in Macau declined to approximately $3.2 million during the third quarter of 2026, inclusive of House Advantage, and below our prior guidance. While the operating environment remains competitive, we continue to review our operating structure and adjust spending in response to changes in demand and business volumes while maintaining the highest standards of service and product offerings.

Turning to our balance sheet. We continue to maintain a strong liquidity position. As of September 30, 2026, we had total liquidity of approximately $2 billion, including approximately $887 million of cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash. Melco Resorts, excluding Studio City, the Philippines, Cyprus and Sri Lanka, accounted for approximately $474 million of cash and cash equivalents.

During the quarter, Studio City redeemed $165 million in aggregate principal amount of its 6.5% senior notes due 2028. The redemption was funded principally through a drawdown under Studio City's senior secured credit facility and cash on hand, which reduces interest expense.

In September, Melco Resorts also redeemed $600 million in aggregate principal amount of its 5.625% senior notes due 2027 in full. The redemption was funded through a drawdown under Melco's revolving credit facilities and also resulted in reduced interest expense. We currently do not have any debt maturities in 2027.

From July 1 through November 3, 2026, we repurchased approximately 33.1 million of our ADSs for consideration of approximately $160 million. This brings total repurchases in 2026 to approximately 47.1 million ADSs for aggregate consideration of approximately $236 million.

As we normally do, we'll give you some guidance on non-operating line items for the upcoming fourth quarter of 2026. Total depreciation and amortization expense is expected to be approximately $140 million to $145 million. Corporate expense is expected to come in at approximately $20 million to $25 million and consolidated net interest expense is expected to be approximately $115 million to $120 million. This includes finance liability interest of approximately $6 million relating to fees payable in relation to the Macau gaming concession and the Cyprus gaming license and finance lease interest of approximately $5 million relating to City of Dreams Manila.

That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, back to you for the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from David Bain with Texas Capital Bank.

Fragen und Antworten

David Bain

Great. I guess, first, during the quarter, we saw, I would call it, notable volatility in share price dislocation with MSC and recognizing liquidity makes it difficult to be opportunistic, I guess, in the open market, it kind of reopened the debate, I think, around potential consolidation.

Just given your focus on deleveraging and maybe even the upcoming dividend this year, does consolidating MSC corporate structure, does that rank somewhere within the priority list? Or just any kind of color around what kind of conditions could things evolve that direction?

Yau Ho

David, it's Lawrence. Maybe I'll start and Geoff can supplement. I think our corporate priority, as we've stated for the last 2 or 3 years, has been to delever. But recognizing there is a massive dislocation of share prices versus what we believe the fair market value of Melco Resorts is, as Geoff said in his prepared remarks, that we have bought back a lot of shares at Melco. So any sort of Studio City consolidation, that is not a priority at all. But at the same time, we're always open to look at what is the optimum structure.

David Bain

Got it. That makes sense. Okay. And then can we also get your take on the recent Macau government guidance fund? Just given the reinvestment or the investment counts towards the mandatory quotas, does that alleviate maybe uncertainty in terms of non-gaming physical expansion disruption? Is this a better result for you in your requirement? And does it even more broadly have any theoretical impact on 2032 renewals either from a goodwill perspective or structurally?

Yau Ho

Well, I think we think so. We're always happy to support the government in their initiatives. And I think the most important thing for Melco and our fellow competitors in the industry is that this counts towards the stated investment. And so I think if anything, it does remove some of the uncertainties of having to do more events or other things. So all in all, I think it's a good outcome.

Geoffrey Davis

And David, if there was an accounting question in there, there is going to be a difference in how we treat it at MIDL with IFRS versus U.S. GAAP for MLCO. So for MIDL, the accounting will record the investment as an asset, likely an intangible asset, but we're still finalizing that with our auditors. And similarly, at Melco, we're still working with our auditors on the final treatment there. But we do anticipate accounting for it as an asset downstairs as well.

Operator

Your next question comes from Praveen Choudhary with Morgan Stanley.

Praveen Choudhary

Congrats on steady business and grand opening of REM Hotel. I have 2 questions. The first one is financial. Could you tell us if you have a deleveraging target either over the next 12 months or over a medium period? But also do you have a dividend reinstatement target? That's the first question.

The second question is just asking about the current demand environment, especially if you can talk about second half of October, November. There has been some slowdown in the premium segment and then how are you looking at it right now?

Yau Ho

Praveen, maybe I'll take the second question first and let Geoff answer the first one, and Evan can supplement it. But I think we're -- the market is challenging right now. And I think everybody saw that October was down 10%. And let's not forget last year, last October, October 2025, I mean, we had typhoons and then I think Mid-Autumn Festival was stuck in there. So it was already kind of a low base.

So it is -- I think on other calls, we've also listened. I don't think there's one factor. I think the main thing is really the consumption part of the Chinese economy tends to be a bit weak right now. And there could be aftereffects of the World Cup, the overseas tax issues. So I think it's a little bit of a perfect storm.

But I don't think it affects our long-term thesis of the durability of this market. But I think at the same time, we were happy to see that we made some changes over August and September, and those are starting to play out for us in October. But I think maybe Evan can talk about it more.

Evan Winkler

Yes. No, I think, Praveen, as you talk about the market, I think we saw similar to what others have seen, which is there is some softness going into October. I don't think it was only at the high end, although people talk about sort of different points on what the high end is, but we did see some softness going in.

I think, as Lawrence alluded to, our relative positioning because we've been going through some changes in our sales force and other things in the August, September time frame bore some fruit. So we did a little bit better in October from a company standpoint. But from an overall market standpoint, I think as Lawrence said, we've hit a little bit of a soft pocket.

I think some of that is just the general overall China economy coming through. I'm not sure that I would point, and I know others have, acutely only to the high end. It's not just in the sort of top, top players that we're seeing. We are seeing some general softness as you go down, which makes us sort of feel like it's probably a little bit more overall China economy than just the specific tax one that's sort of getting the headlines. But as Lawrence said, I think as we look forward, I don't think we view it as a permanent structural change. I think we view it more as a soft pocket and we're working through it.

Geoffrey Davis

And Praveen, on your first question, as Lawrence said, deleveraging is our #1 priority with our free cash flow. We don't have a specific target to share, but we'd like to be a lot closer to where we were in 2019 versus where we are today.

And on the dividend, perhaps to echo what we said on the second quarter call, we would still aim to recommence the dividend potentially towards the end of next year, but that will be very hard to predict the exact timing given that we will have potentially other opportunities to continue to buy back stock.

We have prioritized buying back stock at these very dislocated levels of valuation. And you can expect us to continue to buy stock if the shares stay at or around these levels. So dividend is still something we would endeavor to do on the horizon, but timing is difficult to pinpoint.

Praveen Choudhary

Those are very clear. Can I have a follow-up question? I wanted to ask about the competitive intensity. First of all, the OpEx number looks good. So clearly, everyone, but also you, are working on your OpEx. But the issue is that now our GGR numbers for the market have turned negative.

When revenue was great, our cost was also up for the industry. And now that GGR is negative, even though we are working on OpEx and reinvestment, I'm worried that EBITDA growth is not visible. I just wanted to understand from your perspective sitting there, what could you do to ensure that your EBITDA is not falling or you can maintain it at this level? What else can you do?

Evan Winkler

Why don't I lead off and Lawrence and Geoff may also comment. Again, I think from where we are as a market and what we're focused on very much so is that as you go into a period of lower demand that you're not trying to chase to unhealthy levels in reinvestment to get the business that's there.

So we actually, as we speak, are launching our new player club tomorrow morning. So we've gone back over the last sort of couple of months in the wake of some changes that we've made in our sales force to make sure that we're taking an appropriate and disciplined approach to how we're looking at reinvestment relative to player performance sort of across the board and trying to make sure that we're putting in guardrails and everything else to make sure that we maintain margins moving forward.

So I think the approach that we're taking and we're sort of signaling to the market is we think the right thing to be doing here is to continue to be disciplined in what we're doing going forward because it's very easy to chase everybody down to the bottom, especially if you're in a market where people feel like they need to grab a little bit of share because revenue is soft.

I think we feel good about where we are and what we're doing, but the market is going to continue to be dynamic. And the market right now continues to be competitive. So what I would tell you is we, with Lawrence's direction, put in place programs that we think are customer-attractive but preserve margin. And we're going to have to see how that plays out over the next month or 2 because obviously, we're going to react to what others do.

But the hope is that others will sort of follow the lead and take a rational approach because, again, as demand softens, you don't want to double the impact by having a circumstance where everyone is throwing money at getting the remaining share and driving down margin disproportionately. So I'd say we're a leader in rationality, but whether or not everyone decides to follow suit or to check themselves into the asylum, we will see over the next month or so.

Operator

Your next question comes from Timothy Chau with Citigroup.

Tak-Hei Chau

I think I was on mute just now. I actually have 2 questions here. The first one is about REM. If I remember correctly, from last quarter's guidance, I think the opening of REM should not have a significant impact on the costing of the overall group. I'm just wondering if this guidance still stands, seeing REM is currently operating normally now.

The second question is about the CapEx guidance. I'm just wondering if there's any change or any color on how we should be looking at the CapEx guidance -- sorry, CapEx by the end of this year and also next year.

Evan Winkler

Sure. So this is Evan. Maybe I'll take REM and then Geoff will do CapEx. I think the guidance that we gave you in the last call is correct in the sense that Tim and the team at COD have worked very hard to try and move bodies around not to increase incremental costs in terms of opening up the additional room count.

We are going to see a tick-up in expenses overall just because it still is an incremental 150 keys, but we're trying to find other places where we can rationalize expense. So I would say it's not a dramatic move up, but there will be a tick-up now that we've got REM fully operational.

Geoffrey Davis

And on the second question on CapEx. So we've been able to bring down CapEx for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027 as compared to prior guidance. So for the fourth quarter of this year, we're looking at about $95 million of CapEx, bringing the total to roughly $375 million. And then for next year, we're looking for total CapEx of around $275 million.

Operator

There are no further phone questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Jeanny Kim for closing remarks.

Jeanny Kim

Thank you for participating in the conference call today, and we look forward to speaking to you again next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.