Seacoast Banking (SBCF) Earnings Call Q3 2026: 13 % Kreditwachstum und stabile Nettozinsspanne

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Die Seacoast Banking Corporation (NASDAQ: SBCF) wies für das dritte Quartal 2026 einen Nettogewinn von 59,9 Millionen US-Dollar bzw. 0,55 US-Dollar je Aktie aus. Der bereinigte Nettogewinn stieg im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 9 % und im Jahresvergleich um 59 % auf 71,8 Millionen US-Dollar bzw. 0,66 US-Dollar je Aktie.
• Die bereinigte Gesamtkapitalrendite verbesserte sich auf 1,34 %, die bereinigte Rendite auf das materielle Eigenkapital erreichte 16,9 % und die bereinigte Aufwand-Ertrag-Relation verbesserte sich auf 53,9 %.
• Das Kreditvolumen stieg um 429 Millionen US-Dollar auf 13,6 Milliarden US-Dollar, was einem annualisierten Wachstum von 13 % entspricht. Die kommerzielle Projekt-Pipeline lag zum 30. September weiterhin bei rund 1,3 Milliarden US-Dollar.
• Die Nettozinsspanne hielt sich bei 3,83 %. Ohne die Wertaufholung aus übernommenen Krediten stieg die Kernmarge im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 1 Basispunkt auf 3,66 %.
• Die IT-Umstellung der Citizens First Bank wurde abgeschlossen, und die Unternehmensführung erklärte, dass im dritten Quartal die letzten fusionsbedingten Belastungen über die Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung liefen. Das vierte Quartal wird einmalige Aufwendungen von rund 2,4 Millionen US-Dollar enthalten, die sich 2027 voraussichtlich nicht wiederholen werden.
• Das Management rechnet im vierten Quartal mit einem annualisierten Kreditwachstum von etwa 10 % und hält längerfristig ein Wachstum im hohen einstelligen Prozentbereich für angemessener. Zudem erwartet es unter sonst gleichen Bedingungen eine Margenausweitung im vierten Quartal, gestützt auf günstigere saisonale Einlagenzuflüsse.

Finanzielle Kernergebnisse

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Das zinsunabhängige Ergebnis belief sich auf insgesamt 31,6 Millionen US-Dollar, was einem Anstieg von 14 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal entspricht. Das bereinigte zinsunabhängige Ergebnis ohne Wertpapiergeschäfte stieg um 15 % auf 32,1 Millionen US-Dollar.

Die Erträge aus dem Hypothekengeschäft stiegen um 2 Millionen US-Dollar auf 4,7 Millionen US-Dollar, was größtenteils darauf zurückzuführen ist, dass höhere Marktzinsen den Wert von Hypothekenbedienungsrechten beeinflussten. Die Erträge aus der Versicherungsvermittlung stiegen um 0,5 Millionen US-Dollar, während die sonstigen Erträge aufgrund höherer Swap- und Konsortialgebühren, Gewinnen aus SBA-Kreditverkäufen sowie Erträgen aus SBIC-Beteiligungen um 1,4 Millionen US-Dollar zulegten.

Das verwaltete Vermögen im Bereich Wealth Management erreichte 3,2 Milliarden US-Dollar, was einem Zuwachs von 29 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr entspricht. Der Geschäftsbereich erzielte seit Jahresbeginn ein organisches Nettozuwachs des verwalteten Vermögens von 574 Millionen US-Dollar, und das AUM verzeichnete über fünf Jahre hinweg eine jährliche durchschnittliche Wachstumsrate von 22 %.

Der bereinigte zinsunabhängige Aufwand lag bei 117,8 Millionen US-Dollar, verglichen mit 114,8 Millionen US-Dollar in Q2. Der ausgewiesene zinsunabhängige Aufwand von 133,3 Millionen US-Dollar enthielt fusions- und integrationsbedingte Kosten in Höhe von 15,5 Millionen US-Dollar im Zusammenhang mit der Umstellung der Citizens First Bank.

Die Einlagen gingen in einem saisonal schwachen Quartal im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 200 Millionen US-Dollar zurück, einschließlich eines Rückgangs der vermittelten Festgelder um 159 Millionen US-Dollar. Unverzinsliche Einlagen lagen bei rund 4,2 Milliarden US-Dollar und sind seit Jahresbeginn mit einer annualisierten Rate von 10 % gewachsen. Kunden-Transaktionskonten machten 48 % der Einlagen aus, während auf die zehn größten Einleger nur 2 % der Kundeneinlagen entfielen.

Prognose des Managements

Das Management erwartet im vierten Quartal ein saisonales Einlagenwachstum von rund 300 Millionen US-Dollar, das überwiegend aus öffentlichen Mitteln stammt. Es wird erwartet, dass diese Einlagen Verzinsungen aufweisen, die 100 bis 200 Basispunkte unter den im dritten Quartal genutzten Großhandelsrefinanzierungen liegen, was unter sonst gleichen Bedingungen die Margenausweitung unterstützt.

Das Unternehmen schätzt das Einlagen-Beta auf etwa 35 %, was weitgehend dem variabel verzinsten Anteil seines Kreditportfolios entspricht. Das Management geht daher davon aus, dass Änderungen des Leitzinses der US-Notenbank eine relativ neutrale direkte Auswirkung auf Marge und Ergebnis haben werden.

Zusätzliche Chancen zur Neufestsetzung von Zinsen bei ertragbringenden Aktiva umfassen Fälligkeiten festverzinslicher Titel von rund 600 Millionen US-Dollar bis Ende 2027, die derzeit Renditen im hohen 4-%-Bereich aufweisen. Bei variabel verzinsten Krediten im Volumen von 300 bis 400 Millionen US-Dollar wird in den nächsten Jahren mit einer jährlichen Zinsanpassung um etwa 150 Basispunkte gerechnet. Zudem erwartet Seacoast einen jährlichen Mittelzufluss aus Wertpapieren von etwa 600 Millionen US-Dollar, was den schrittweisen Wechsel hin zu Krediten unterstützen dürfte.

Für das vierte Quartal stellt das Management ein annualisiertes Kreditwachstum von etwa 10 % in Aussicht, berücksichtigt dabei jedoch auch Abgänge in der Pipeline. Längerfristig hält es ein Kreditwachstum im hohen einstelligen Prozentbereich für nachhaltiger. Das Ausweiten der Gesamtbilanz dürfte im niedrigen bis mittleren einstelligen Prozentbereich bleiben und vom Wachstum der Kerneinlagen abhängen.

Das Management rechnet im vierten Quartal mit einem Anstieg der bereinigten Aufwendungen um etwa 2 bis 3 Millionen US-Dollar gegenüber dem Q3-Niveau von rund 118 Millionen US-Dollar. Zudem verwies es auf einmalige Aufwendungen von 2,4 Millionen US-Dollar im vierten Quartal, die sich 2027 nicht wiederholen sollten. Für die längerfristige Aufwandsplanung verwies das Management darauf, die bereinigte Aufwandsbasis des dritten Quartals zu annualisieren und ein Wachstum von etwa 5 % anzusetzen.

Die operativen Ziele des Unternehmens sind ein ROA von über 1,30 %, eine Rendite auf das materielle Eigenkapital von über 16 % und eine Aufwand-Ertrag-Relation zwischen 53 % und 55 % bei gleichzeitigem Bilanzsummenwachstum im hohen einstelligen Prozentbereich. Eine anhaltende Margenausweitung hängt teilweise davon ab, dass das lange Ende der Zinsstrukturkurve relativ hoch bleibt.

Risiken und zu beobachtende Bereiche

• Das Management geht davon aus, dass höhere Zinsen die Kreditnachfrage schließlich schwächen werden, insbesondere im Gewerbeimmobiliensektor, wo sinkende Immobilienwerte Transaktionen verzögern könnten, während Käufer und Verkäufer ihre Preisvorstellungen neu bewerten.
• Der Wettbewerb um Einlagen könnte das Einlagen-Beta über die vom Management erwarteten rund 35 % treiben, obwohl das Management davon ausgeht, dass die Zinsneufestsetzung auf der Aktivseite diesen Druck ausgleichen könnte.
• Bei den zur Veräußerung verfügbaren Wertpapieren fielen im dritten Quartal aufgrund höherer Zinsen und breiterer Spreads zusätzliche nicht realisierte Nettoverluste von 237 Millionen US-Dollar an. Das Management beschrieb das Portfolio als weitgehend durch US-Hypothekenagenturen besichert und gab an, keine Verkäufe dieser Wertpapiere zu erwarten.
• Die Umwandlung der Kredit-Pipeline bleibt angesichts der Zinsunsicherheit und einer breiteren geopolitischen Volatilität ungewiss. Der Ausblick für das Kreditwachstum im vierten Quartal beinhaltet bereits eine gewisse Ausfallquote.
• Die Investitionen in Kundenberater, Technologie und KI werden fortgesetzt, was auch nach dem Ende der Fusions- und Integrationskosten zu einem Aufwandswachstum führt.

Highlights aus der Fragerunde mit Analysten

Bezüglich der Margen erklärte das Management, dass Seacoast den Höhepunkt der Rentabilität nicht zwangsläufig erreicht habe. Fälligkeiten festverzinslicher Positionen, Zinsanpassungen bei variabel verzinsten Krediten und die Umschichtung aus Wertpapieren mit einer Rendite von rund 4,45 % in Kredite könnten bis 2027 eine weitere Margenausweitung unterstützen, sofern die längerfristigen Zinsen erhöht bleiben.

Hinsichtlich des Kreditwachstums bezeichnete das Management die vorangegangenen zwei Quartale als ungewöhnlich stark. Jüngste Einstellungen von Kundenberatern trugen zum Neugeschäft bei, während geringere Kreditrückzahlungen in einem Höherzinsumfeld das erforderliche Neugeschäftsvolumen verringern könnten, um ein Nettowachstum zu erzielen.

In Bezug auf das Engagement in Gewerbeimmobilien und Baukrediten erklärte das Management, dass man sich innerhalb der internen Leitplanken bewegen und ein diversifiziertes Kreditportfolio beibehalten werde. Es wird erwartet, dass einige Baukredite in Zwischenfinanzierungen und fremdgenutzte Gewerbeimmobilien übergehen, was Kapazitäten für zusätzliche Baukredite schafft.

Zur Refinanzierung gab das Management an, dass derzeit keine weiteren Wertpapierverkäufe zur Finanzierung des Kreditwachstums absehbar seien. Das künftige Wachstum dürfte sich stärker auf Kern-Kundeneinlagen stützen, zumal sich die Mitarbeiter nach der Umstellung der Citizens First Bank wieder verstärkt auf die Neukundengewinnung konzentrieren können.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Welcome to Seacoast Banking Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Colby, and I'll be your conference operator today.

[Operator Instructions]

Before we begin, I've been asked to direct your attention to the statement at the end of the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements. Seacoast will be discussing issues that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Act, and its comments today are intended to be covered within the meaning of that act. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the conference over to Chuck Shaffer, Chairman and CEO of Seacoast Bank. Mr. Shaffer, you may begin.

Charles Shaffer

Okay. Thank you, Colby, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. As we move through today's presentation, we'll reference the third quarter 2026 earnings slide deck available at seacoastbanking.com. Joining me today are Tracey Dexter, our Chief Financial Officer; Michael Young, our Chief Strategy Officer; and James Stallings, our Chief Credit Officer.

Seacoast delivered another strong quarter with continued progress in growth, profitability and operating leverage, all tracking well against the guidance we laid out earlier this year. The quarter also marked an important transition for our company. We successfully completed the technology conversion of Citizens First Bank in The Villages, bringing our integration work largely to a close. The third quarter also represents the end of M&A-related charges flowing through our income statement, providing a cleaner earnings profile and greater visibility into the underlying earnings power of Seacoast.

And, on October 2, Seacoast celebrated its 100th anniversary, an extraordinary milestone made possible by generations of associates, customers, shareholders and the communities we serve.

And turning to the third quarter, net income was $59.9 million or $0.55 per share with adjusted earnings of $71.8 million or $0.66 per share. And I was particularly pleased with the continued improvement in profitability, which has been a major strategic focus over the past year. Adjusted ROA improved to 1.34% and adjusted ROTE increased to 16.9% and adjusted pretax pre-provision earnings grew 58% (sic) [ 49% ] year-over-year.

Organic growth remained strong and loans grew at a 13% annualized rate in the quarter, and we ended September with a commercial pipeline of approximately $1.3 billion. And, importantly, we're generating this growth while maintaining disciplined underwriting and strong credit quality with nonperforming loans declining 15% (sic) [ 0.54% ] and net charge-offs remaining low.

And, on the funding side, total deposits were essentially flat year-to-date, but the underlying franchise trends remain encouraging, particularly as we continue to focus on growing operating accounts. Year-to-date, noninterest-bearing deposits have grown at a 10% annualized rate and year-to-date growth in business accounts offset declines in public fund balances. And we are now moving beyond our seasonal low point for deposits, and I expect core deposit growth from here.

And as we look ahead, Seacoast is operating from a position of considerable strength. We have a fortress balance sheet, substantial liquidity, robust capital, improving profitability and significant organic growth opportunities across our markets. That combination gives us both resilience and considerable flexibility as we move into 2027. And, with the integration largely behind us, our focus is squarely on execution, attracting great bankers, growing organically, deepening customer relationships and investing in technology and AI to operate more efficiently and deliver an even better experience for our customers.

I want to thank our associates for their tremendous commitment to Seacoast and our One Team culture. We have accomplished a great deal thus far in 2026. And with the integration behind us, profitability improving and strong momentum across the franchise, I believe Seacoast is very well positioned for another year of strong performance in 2027.

And, with that, I'll turn it over to Tracey.

Tracey Dexter

Thank you, Chuck. Good morning, everyone. Beginning with Slide 4 and third quarter performance highlights. Seacoast reported net income of $59.9 million or $0.55 per share, up 1% from the prior quarter and 64% from the prior year quarter. Adjusted net income increased 9% sequentially to $71.8 million or $0.66 per share, up 59% from the prior year quarter. Adjusted pretax pre-provision earnings were $100.3 million, up 5% from the prior quarter and 49% from the prior year quarter.

Net interest income increased 2% from the prior quarter. Net interest margin was stable at 3.83%, while margin, excluding acquired loan accretion, increased 1 basis point to 3.66%. Adjusted ROA improved to 1.34%. Loans increased $429 million or 13% annualized during the quarter, supported by continued strong origination activity. We're seeing good results in relationship deposit growth year-to-date with noninterest-bearing deposits up 10% on an annualized basis since the beginning of the year. Adjusted return on tangible equity grew to 16.9%, and we remain well positioned with strong capital.

Moving to net interest income and margin on Slide 5. Net interest income on a fully tax-equivalent basis totaled $185.4 million, up $3.2 million from the prior quarter. Higher average loan balances and higher core loan yields supported growth, partially offset by higher deposit costs and lower average securities balances. Net interest margin remained stable at 3.83%. Excluding acquired loan accretion, core margin increased 1 basis point to 3.66%.

Securities yields increased to 4.52%. Loan yields were 5.89%, up 1 basis point sequentially. And excluding accretion, loan yields increased 3 basis points from the prior quarter to 5.64%. The cost of deposits increased modestly but remained low at 1.6%, and the overall cost of funds was 1.74%.

Turning to noninterest income on Slide 6. Noninterest income totaled $31.6 million, up 14% from the prior quarter. Excluding securities activity, adjusted noninterest income was $32.1 million, up 15% from the prior quarter. Wealth management income continues to build, increasing 2% sequentially. Mortgage banking income increased $2 million from the prior quarter to $4.7 million, with the increase largely the result of the change in the value of mortgage servicing rights resulting from higher market interest rates.

Insurance agency income continues to grow, increasing $0.5 million from the prior quarter. Other income increased $1.4 million from the prior quarter, reflecting higher swap and syndication fees, higher gains on SBA loan sales and higher income from SBIC investments.

Moving to Slide 7. Assets under management reached $3.2 billion, an increase of 29% year-over-year. And as you can see on the chart, a 22% compound annual growth rate over the last 5 years. The team has added $574 million of new organic assets under management year-to-date, reflecting continued new business development and asset inflows from new and existing relationships.

Moving to expenses on Slide 8. Noninterest expense totaled $133.3 million and included $15.5 million of merger and integration costs associated with the completion of the Citizens First Bank, Villages Bancorp conversion. Adjusted noninterest expense was $117.8 million compared with $114.8 million in the prior quarter. The adjusted efficiency ratio improved to 53.9% from 54.5% in the second quarter and 57.6% a year ago, demonstrating continued improvement in core operating leverage. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect approximately $2.4 million in discrete expenses, which will not recur in 2027.

On to Slides 9 and 10 on the loan portfolio. Loans ended the quarter at $13.6 billion, increasing $429 million or 13% annualized from June 30. The commercial pipeline remains strong at approximately $1.3 billion at September 30, supporting our outlook for continued organic growth. Looking at the allowance for credit losses, the details of which are shown on Slide 11.

The allowance for credit losses was $191 million, 1.41% of total loans compared with 1.38% at June 30. During the third quarter, we recorded an adjustment to the purchase accounting valuation for a loan acquired in The Villages acquisition. This increased the allowance by $8.4 million with a corresponding adjustment to goodwill.

Our credit quality metrics shown on Slide 12, remains solid. Nonperforming loans declined during the quarter to $73.3 million and represent 54 basis points of total loans. Net charge-offs were $5.4 million or 16 basis points of average loans, and the fourth-quarter average is 10 basis points of total loans. The level of criticized and classified loans was stable at 2.9% of total loans.

Turning to deposits on Slides 13 and 14. Total deposits were $16.6 billion at September 30 compared with $16.8 billion at June 30. The third quarter is typically our seasonal low point during the year, but the decline also reflects a $159 million reduction in brokered time deposits. Noninterest-bearing demand deposits remained near flat at $4.2 billion. Average noninterest-bearing balances increased $40 million from the second quarter. Customer transaction accounts represented 48% of total deposits at quarter end, and the top 10 depositors represented only 2% of total customer deposits.

Moving to Slide 15 and the investment securities portfolio. Net unrealized losses in the available-for-sale securities portfolio increased by $237 million during the third quarter, driven by higher rates and wider spreads. As a reminder, this is a high-quality portfolio of largely agency-backed securities and with no anticipated need to sell these securities, the decline in value is considered temporary and will reverse over time as these bonds move towards maturity or as the rate environment changes.

Turning to capital and liquidity on Slide 16. Strong capital levels are a hallmark of the Seacoast franchise. The sequential decline in tangible equity to tangible assets and tangible book value per share primarily reflected the impact of higher rates on the market value of the available-for-sale securities portfolio through accumulated other comprehensive income, and we also put some capital to work through share repurchases. Our robust capital levels continue to provide significant flexibility to support organic growth and disciplined capital deployment.

On Slide 17, demonstrating the components of the change in TBV per share during the quarter, which again was primarily impacted by unrealized losses related to the securities portfolio.

On Slide 18, we reiterate our 2026 guidance. Our results for the quarter continue to evidence the improvements we've achieved in core profitability, strong funding trends and continued execution against our strategic priorities. We remain focused on disciplined growth and long-term shareholder value creation. With that, I'll turn the call back to Chuck.

Charles Shaffer

All right. Thank you, Tracey. And, Colby, we're ready for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And with your first question comes from Woody Lay with KBW.

Fragen und Antworten

Wood Lay

I wanted to start on the margin outlook and especially get a sense of how the margin trended throughout the quarter and where we kind of sat in the back half of September once we saw the rate hike.

Michael Young

Yes, Woody, this is Michael. I'll take that one. I think generally, the thing to think about as we head into the fourth quarter is that we'll have the return of seasonal deposit flows, namely public funds. Our public funds are more relationship-oriented and therefore, at a lower rate than some of our wholesale funding that we've used to kind of temporarily fund the balance sheet with a strong growth in Q3. And so you'll see a pretty distinct mix shift into Q4 with about $300 million or so of deposit growth at much lower rates, maybe 100 to 200 basis points below our wholesale funding that should lead to a reasonable margin expansion into the fourth quarter, all else equal.

And then taking just the Fed hike portion of that, that occurred in September, as you can see from our disclosures, we're relatively neutral to rates at this point with about a 35% deposit beta. That roughly matches up to our 35% floating rate loan portfolio. And so as we see moves in the Fed funds rate, we don't expect that to be really much of a headwind or a tailwind to the overall margin or earnings outlook.

Wood Lay

Got it. And then I guess even the NIM trajectory past this quarter, I know you're not going to give 2027 guidance, but I would expect loan growth to continue to be strong. And as you think about that incremental growth, does that represent a positive to the margin? Or is incremental growth, are we kind of reaching peak margins from here?

Michael Young

I wouldn't say we're reaching peak margins. That's not how I'd characterize it. Maybe I'll just kind of unpack it a little bit. Again, not providing '27 guidance, but just giving you some of the dynamics that we've articulated in the past. I think there's 3 key buckets to think about on the earning asset side. First, you've got about $600 million of fixed rate maturities through the end of 2027 that are in the high 4% range. So those will step up pretty nicely. And I think in particular, if the long end of the curve stays high and upward sloping, we'll get more leverage out of some of these back book repricing dynamics.

Then you've got the ARM portfolio that has been relatively fixed over the last 3 to 4 years coming out of kind of a concentration of COVID-era originations. Those are all hitting reset windows, about $300 million to $400 million per year over the next couple of years with step-ups of about 1.5% on the rates on those. And then the third bucket would just be the changeover from the securities portfolio to loans as we remix the balance sheet following the acquisitions and the strong loan growth, which is hitting on your direct question, that the securities portfolio is at about a 4.45% yield today.

So as we change over $500 million to $600 million of cash flows from securities to loans over the next couple of years, that provides, again, with a higher rate environment, more power to the earning asset repricing. So all those are kind of tailwinds discretely to earning assets stepping up higher. And then we should be balanced relative to Fed hikes, as I just mentioned on kind of the deposit beta relative to our floating rate positioning on the loan portfolio.

So then the only factor you have left is kind of what is deposit competition going to look like. And we feel good about our ability to continue to grow core funding and relationship funding without feeling maybe as much pressure as peers. So we still feel good, I think, overall about margin expansion from here into 2027 if the long end of the curve stays high.

Wood Lay

All right. That's really great color. I appreciate that. And then I guess just last for me. If I look at the core ROA in the third quarter, you were at a 1.34% ROA. It sounds like there's tailwinds to the margin. You're through the villages conversion, but you're targeting a 1.30% for the fourth quarter. And I was just curious on where you see some of the normalization occurring in the overall profitability.

Michael Young

Woody, this is Michael. I'll start on that one. I think Tracey mentioned in the prepared remarks about $2.4 million in kind of discrete expense items in the fourth quarter that may just put a little pressure in the other direction temporarily for ROA, but the longer-term dynamics of margin expansion should be supportive of ROA over time. But I will call out that we are still investing for growth in the franchise with a high single-digit loan growth rate, et cetera. We're continuing to add and attract talent to the franchise from bankers and other people kind of bringing that in.

So there is still a good bit of investment that's going on to support strong growth in our markets, and we just see lots of opportunity there. So we're going to balance it as we always have with revenue and managing kind of the efficiency ratio and profitability, but it was really important for us to get to the 1.30% level we articulated prior to the acquisition and the 16% ROTE. So feel good about where we are with some tailwinds in a higher rate environment.

Charles Shaffer

And the only thing I'd add, Woody, is we feel strongly that we'll hit the high end of the guidance range that we provided and exit the year in a really strong position.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Russell Gunther with Stephens.

Russell Elliott Gunther

I'd love to start on the loan growth discussion, please. Really another great quarter from both an order of magnitude and mix perspective, commercial pipeline essentially unchanged. How are you guys thinking about the sustainability of a double-digit loan growth result near term? And then as we contemplate potential future rate hikes or the 10-year kind of remaining north of 5%, is there an absolute level of rates where demand destruction occurs that puts your organic growth targets at risk?

Charles Shaffer

Yes. That's a great question, Russell. The way we're thinking about things is, one, both last quarter and this quarter were standout quarters, and we probably were growing even greater than what we had expected, which is amazing and the result of the heavy amount of recruiting and banker adds that we made earlier this year and then into the prior year. But looking forward, I mean, there's no doubt as rates move higher, demand will go down. And we have contemplated that as we think about the coming year, particularly in commercial real estate as rates go higher, commercial real estate values come down, you end up at a point where buyers and sellers have to reconcile price again to get transactions to move.

So the way we're thinking about the outlook, the longer-term outlook is remaining in that high single-digit growth rate. That's where we think we'll land. That's what we're modeling to, and that's kind of our expectation into the coming quarter. I would suggest to you probably right around 10% growth rate on an annualized basis is kind of the way to think about Q4 with some gives and takes in there. But more longer term, I think high single digits is a more appropriate sort of modeled growth rate for us.

Michael Young

And Russell, maybe just to tack on one additional piece on that. Just the payoff trends is important to keep in mind as well. So there's production and payoffs in a higher rate environment. We do expect lower payoffs. We had about $380 million this quarter, down from $420 million last quarter. In Q1, we had relatively high payoffs. So it takes a little less production to get to the same level of net growth in a higher rate environment for us anyway. And then additionally, with the mortgage production that we have, ours is a little more resilient and durable than many peers given that it's a lot of kind of new construction related in The Villages.

Russell Elliott Gunther

That's great color, guys. And then, Michael, maybe this one for you, just in terms of point of clarification, how you are thinking about the deposit beta here through the cycle? Was that a 35% kind of total deposit beta? Or is that just near term? Maybe just walk us through how you'd expect to shake out.

Michael Young

Yes, Russell, I think 35% is kind of where we expect to be. We were higher in the last rate hiking cycle, but obviously, that was a pretty acute cycle. And then we've remixed with really strong deposit balances through The Villages acquisition and the Heartland acquisition that look very similar to legacy Seacoast in terms of very granular deposit base with lower price sensitivity. So we still feel pretty good about that overall. Competition, obviously, is something that could emerge and put some pressure on that. But I think with the strong back book repricing dynamics that we have over the next year or so, I think we'll more than offset the competitive pressures with back book repricing dynamics, which gives us the confidence in some continued margin expansion, again, assuming that the long end of the rate -- or long end of the curve stays reasonably high.

Russell Elliott Gunther

Okay. That makes a ton of sense. And then last one for me, guys, just on the expense outlook, maybe just bigger picture, how to think about you guys. I understand the puts and takes for the coming quarter, reiterated the efficiency ratio guide. Is that a band that we would expect you guys to stay in? Or is there kind of a normalized pace of annual growth you contemplate, reflecting thoughts around additional hires or investment in tech?

Charles Shaffer

Yes. I think the way to think about it, Russell, this is Chuck. We'll continue to make investments. I mean we need to invest in bankers to continue the growth rate. We need to invest in tech. But at the same time, as Michael talked about, there's solid revenue tailwinds here moving into the coming year again, assuming the yield curve remains where it is today. And so when you look at overall expenses, if you kind of take out and you look at adjusted expenses for this quarter, we were roughly about $118 million into the coming quarter, we expect a few -- that step up slightly, maybe by $2 million to $3 million depending on a few items.

But if you take that $118 million, annualize it at about a 5% growth rate, that's about our expectation for the coming year to give you a relative sort of way to size it. And just overall, just to reiterate, as we think about running the company, we were going to run the company north of a 1.30% ROA, north of a 16% return on equity and an efficiency ratio band somewhere between, call it, 53% to 55%. We think that's about the right sort of gearing ratio for us with a high single-digit growth rate on the asset side. And that generates solid tangible book value growth and solid return performance, and that's what we're working to deliver for shareholders.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Stephen Scouten with Piper Sandler.

Stephen Scouten

So I'm curious on the -- I know, Michael, I think you said some of the construction was from Villages. If you guys might continue to take advantage of your comparatively low concentration on CRE and C&D and kind of be opportunistic in those asset classes in particular?

Charles Shaffer

I mean we'll always be thoughtful. That'd be the best way to start, Stephen, is thinking carefully about it. I do think on what we're going to see in our construction book is as it is built up, we expect that to start to transition over into the mini-perm and move into more of the nonowner-occupied commercial real estate bucket, so move out of construction that frees up some capacity in construction to continue to do some construction over time.

But we're going to manage it within our guardrails. We don't want to get overcommitted to any one area and continue to build a distributed thoughtful loan book. But as the construction moves into more permanent status, there should be some capacity to continue to do construction over time. And then as I mentioned in the last couple of questions there, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to higher rates. That's kind of the unknown at this point.

Michael Young

And just to clarify on -- sorry, Stephen, just to clarify on The Villages, that was just -- we're financing new deliveries through mortgage. So we're not financing the construction there. It's just that there's a tailwind because it's new deliveries versus refinance or rate-driven mortgage origination volume.

Charles Shaffer

Yes. And that's what we're in the residential category.

Michael Young

Yes.

Stephen Scouten

Got it. Okay. And maybe thinking about that, how you think about pipeline conversion? I mean the commercial pipeline remained really strong quarter-over-quarter, obviously. Just wondering with where rates have gone, do you think about conversion any differently as you try to factor out potential loan growth? And have you, I guess, seen anything from customers over the last couple of months that makes you feel more conservative about that expectation?

Charles Shaffer

We haven't seen fallout yet, but as I guided to in the fourth quarter, I'd roughly model about a 10% annualized growth rate in the quarter. And that does assume that there is a little bit of fallout in that pipeline. We do want to handicap that a little bit. We don't know exactly where that's going. It's really hard to tell. You have a lot -- you have midterms, you have the potential of a war restarting post midterms. And you've got rates that moved up to 5.50% now back to 5%. So things are pretty volatile. So there are a lot of unknowns there. But I would expect, like I mentioned, we do believe we'll be able to deliver high single-digit growth rates throughout the outlook at this point.

Stephen Scouten

Got it. And then just lastly for me, kind of thinking about the pace of balance sheet remix. I think you talked a little bit about securities cash flows. But in this quarter, you actually sold some securities to fund the loan growth. How should we think about kind of the mix shift there that might occur over the next year or 2, given the low loan-to-deposit ratio and the room you have there?

Michael Young

Yes, Stephen, this is Michael. I'll take that one. Generally, I think we will be somewhat remixing. It will be really dependent upon the pace of our organic deposit growth overall. We do have a little higher brokered CD balance, which again should trend down and FHLB balances, which will trend down in the fourth quarter seasonally. But then over time, we really aren't trying to be dependent on those sources of funding. We're going to be focused on core customer funding. And I think we've got a big opportunity to increase that core funding growth now with The Villages conversion behind us and all the associates kind of back in the field doing their normal day-to-day activities and focus on business development versus conversion activities. We're excited about what that can mean for 2027.

Charles Shaffer

Yes. And I'd just reiterate that what Michael said there is important. We spent a lot of time over the last year preparing for this conversion. We had over 300 associates working on it. It took up a significant amount of the mind space and the focus inside the company to deliver what was a really, really solid conversion. I'm very pleased with the outcome of that. But with that behind us now, we can turn all of our attention back to organic growth. And I think we'll see the outcome of that as we move forward.

Michael Young

And maybe, Stephen, just to put a finer point on it, we don't necessarily anticipate any additional security sales to fund loan growth. That was just really strong growth in the last 2 quarters above plan during our seasonally weaker period for deposit growth. And so it was kind of prudent to do so given that some of those were relatively lower-yielding securities anyway on a floating rate basis. And so we replaced that with loans.

But going forward, it will really be -- we'll have kind of $600 million a year of securities cash flow that will probably be used to remix the balance sheet towards loans, as I mentioned earlier. And then the aggregate growth of the balance sheet will be more dictated by the pace of deposit growth, but still in that low to mid-single-digit range. That's what you should think about for kind of aggregate balance sheet growth.

Operator

And with no further questions in queue, I'd like to turn the conference back over to Chuck Shaffer for closing remarks.

Charles Shaffer

Okay. I just want to thank you all for joining us this morning. And again, my congratulations to the Seacoast team for celebrating our 100 years. We appreciate all the support from our associates, from our customers, from our shareholders and all the communities that we work and serve. And it's been exciting to celebrate that here at Seacoast, and we're looking forward to 2027. So thank you all for being here this morning. We're around if anybody has questions post call. Operator, that will conclude the call.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.