Target Stock Heads Into Earnings Up 70% This Year, With $169.24 the Level to Beat

Under CEO Michael Fiddelke, shoppers have started coming back. In the second quarter, net sales rose 5.3% to $26.5 billion, and comparable sales, which compare sales from stores open at least a year plus digital orders, rose 3.8%. Transactions rose 3.6%, while the average purchase rose just 0.2%, so the growth came from more shoppers, not bigger baskets. Digital comparable sales rose 8.7%, and same-day delivery grew more than 25%. Fiddelke said the results show "increasing confidence that our strategy is resonating with our guests."

Earnings per share jumped to $4.11 from $2.05, but a one-time $994 million tariff refund added $1.65 a share. The refund also added 3.7 percentage points to the operating margin, which reached 9.6%. Without it, EPS grew about 20% and the operating margin rose about 70 basis points, or 0.7 percentage point.

Target raised its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance to $9.90 to $10.90, including the roughly $1.65 refund. By my calculation, that leaves $8.25 to $9.25 without the refund. The full-year analyst estimate of $8.89, reported by Barchart, falls inside that range, which suggests analysts are looking past the refund. For the third quarter, Barchart puts consensus EPS at $2.08, up 16.9% from $1.78, and Target has beaten estimates in each of its last four quarters.

The 70% rally assumes the turnaround will last, but revenue has not grown much over time. Trefis notes that trailing 12-month revenue of $108 billion is the same as in mid-2022. Home furnishings and decor sales fell 6.5% last fiscal year, and Target cut prices on nearly 2,000 home, apparel and accessories items in late September. According to Trefis, management has said work on home and apparel will continue "into 2027 and beyond." So Wednesday's key tests are whether traffic is still rising and whether margins hold up without refunds.

That optimism shows clearly on the weekly chart. Target has climbed steadily inside a rising channel, two parallel lines that have guided prices higher, since mid-2025, nearly doubling from the low near $80. Buyers defended the lower edge of that channel, now near $147.3, in recent weeks, and the latest bounce started from the $144.80 low just below it. An earnings marker on the chart also points to volatility ahead.

RSI, a momentum gauge that runs from 0 to 100, sits near 67, just above its signal line. The MACD, another momentum indicator, still shows slightly negative histogram bars, but they are shrinking, which hints that buyers are regaining momentum.

TGT Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

A weekly close above $169.24, the August high, could open $184.69, followed by $197.83. On the downside, $144.80 is key support, and a weekly close below it would break the channel and could send TGT toward $130.79.

I'm bullish while TGT holds above $144.80, with $169.24 as the next breakout level.

Key Levels

• Last close: $160.90 on Thursday, November 12 (overnight: $161.59)
• Support: $144.80, $130.79
• Resistance: $169.24, $184.69, $197.83
• RSI: 66.58
• Bullish trigger: Weekly close above $169.24
• Bearish trigger: Weekly close below $144.80

When does Target report Q3 2026 earnings?

Target reports fiscal third-quarter results on Wednesday, November 18, before the market opens. Analysts expect EPS of $2.08, up 16.9% from a year earlier.

What is the Target stock forecast before earnings?

The bias is bullish while TGT holds above $144.80, just below the lower edge of its rising channel on the weekly chart. A weekly close above $169.24 could open $184.69 and $197.83, while a weekly close below $144.80 could send the stock toward $130.79.

Target has earned its rally with more shoppers, but much of this year's profit jump came from a one-time refund, and the stock already sits near analysts' average target. The level that matters is $169.24. In my view, a weekly close above it would confirm the uptrend, while a weekly close below $144.80 would end the channel that has carried the stock since mid-2025.