Can The Trade Desk Clear $15.29 After a Q3 Beat That Hid a Revenue Decline?

TTD brought in revenues of $736 million for the quarter, a 13% increase from the expected $651 million, and a 0.5% decline from the same quarter the previous year. Management attributed a 3% positive impact on revenues from a strategic partner that it does not expect to repeat. Adjusted EPS of $0.33 beat expectations of $0.25 and declined from $0.45 in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $266 million from $317 million in the prior year quarter. EBITDA margin contracted from 43% to 36%. Customer retention was over 95%.

GAAP net income declined from $116 million to $38 million in the quarter. The decreased income was impacted by a $44 million charge related to a restructuring.

The Trade Desk, an advertising technology company, expects Q4 revenues of at least $755 million, with adjusted EBITDA of at least $280 million. Analysts had expected revenues of approximately $692 million. Even if the company achieves revenues of $755 million, it would represent a 10.9% decline compared to Q4 2025 revenues of $847 million.

Nate Olmstead, The Trade Desk’s CFO, stated that the company does not expect the typical “seasonal uplift” from Q3 to Q4. Olmstead said that budget constraints at large advertisers have negatively impacted the company. Political advertising revenues represented a mid-single-digit share of Q3 revenues and are expected to be slightly higher in Q4. Revenues from political advertising will conclude after the election. Olmstead said that in election years, revenues decline by about 25% from the 4th quarter to the 1st quarter.

A 25% drop from $755 million would put first-quarter revenue near $566 million. Investors focused on the declining sales, and the one-time item that boosted the quarter, instead of the headline number.

The company expects more than $100 million in gross savings in 2027, some of which will be spent. The company raised its buyback authorization by $731 million to $1 billion, and has $1.23 billion in cash, as well as $420 million in short-term investments.

Jeff Green, the company’s CEO, acknowledged that the company is “still operating below the level of growth we expect from ourselves,” and contrasted the company with Amazon and Google. The company’s multiple is currently around 18, which is below its historical lows.

Just a day or two ago, things looked very different. The Trade Desk (TTD) had yet again failed to break and close above the falling trendline from lower highs this summer. Additionally, $13.68 had been tough resistance. On Monday, that all changed. TTD broke and closed above that falling trendline and $13.68, and is currently challenging $15.29.

The Trade Desk Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

$15.29 is a key resistance level. Twice in September, at the $15.29 level, TTD formed a double top, a bearish pattern. Additionally, RSI (a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100) is at 68, quickly approaching the overbought level of 70. Furthermore, the MACD (another momentum oscillator) is in the bullish zone.

Given the bullish daily setup, if TTD opens and trades above $15.29, the bullish target is $16.71, with support remaining at $13.68 and $11.75. I am bullish on TTD as long as it trades above $15.29. I would take profits at $16.71.

Key Levels

• Last close: $14.93, up 15.47% on Monday, November 9 (overnight: $15.36)
• Support: $13.68, $11.75
• Resistance: $15.29, $16.71
• RSI: 68.03
• Bullish trigger: Daily close above $15.29
• Bearish trigger: Daily close below $13.68

Why did The Trade Desk stock rise after earnings?

Revenue of $736 million and $0.33 adjusted EPS resulted in a beat for The Trade Desk in the third quarter. Management expects fourth quarter revenue of at least $755 million, about 9% above the expected $692 million. Most of the after hours move was negated after The Trade Desk management indicated there would be no 'lift' during the holiday season.

What is The Trade Desk stock forecast now?

The bias will be bullish if the stock closes above $15.29 and bearish if the stock closes below $13.68. From current levels, a break of $15.29 resistance targets a move to the $16.71 level, while the $13.68 level offers initial support.

The Trade Desk beat expectations, but year over year revenue declined. Management anticipates political ad spending for the fourth quarter. Without this ad spending, declining revenues are likely. The $15.29 level is critical and a close above cancels the double top, targets a move to $16.71 and a close below keeps it in the current trading range above $13.68.