SoftBank (SFTBY): Deeply Discounted Major OpenAI Shareholder
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SoftBank’s net asset value is primarily driven by its major stakes in Arm and OpenAI. While current calculations indicate a 34% NAV discount based on OpenAI's $852 billion valuation, upcoming revaluations toward a $2 trillion to $3 trillion target—bolstered by OpenAI’s enterprise advancements with GPT-6 Astra—could widen the actual discount to between 53% and 62%. With OpenAI’s IPO imminent, transparency and liquidity will improve, though SoftBank's proxy scarcity will decline. Consequently, the optimal investment strategy involves accumulating shares prior to the public listing and exiting before the IPO.
Key Takeaways
SoftBank is a holding company whose current assets primarily consist of Arm and OpenAI. As of the end of June 2026, the company disclosed an NAV of approximately $472 billion converted at current exchange rates (the original disclosure was in Japanese yen; all amounts below are in US dollars). In its financial reports, Arm is the largest asset and OpenAI is the second largest. With OpenAI's rapid development and imminent IPO, our focus on SoftBank has increased significantly; were we investors ourselves, we would opt for a heavy allocation.
Regarding the Arm asset:
Since the end of June, Arm's stock price has dropped from $354.57 to $261.54. Updating Arm's stock price based on the end-June NAV while maintaining end-June valuations for the remaining assets, we estimate SoftBank's current NAV at approximately $366.5 billion, representing an apparent NAV discount of about 34% compared to its current market capitalization of around $244 billion.
Regarding the OpenAI asset:
In its latest funding round completed in March 2026, OpenAI was valued at $852 billion, with SoftBank holding a stake of around 13%. However, driven by the rapid development of AI, OpenAI's fair value has already grown substantially.
Recently, GPT-6 Astra has provided fundamental support for OpenAI's revaluation. OpenAI already boasts over 1 billion weekly active users in the consumer market, whereas its enterprise segment was previously overtaken by Anthropic. Astra's greatest advancements are concentrated in high-value enterprise scenarios such as Coding, Computer Use, Automation, and professional workflows, positioning OpenAI to regain enterprise market share.
When OpenAI's valuation reaches $2 trillion, $2.5 trillion, and $3 trillion, SoftBank's stake will be worth $260 billion, $325 billion, and $390 billion, respectively. Correspondingly, SoftBank's NAV would reach approximately $516 billion, $581 billion, and $646 billion, implying discounts of 53%, 58%, and 62% relative to its current market capitalization.
We anticipate that as OpenAI is revalued, the discount is expected to narrow. Furthermore, considering that OpenAI's IPO is imminent, the optimal strategy would be to sell before the listing.
SoftBank Asset Structure: Arm and OpenAI Already Determine Most of the Value
SoftBank is a strategic investment holding company, making NAV a more suitable valuation metric than P/E or P/B ratios. As of the end of June 2026, the company held assets valued at approximately $543 billion, with net debt of about $70.6 billion and an NAV of roughly $472 billion. Among these, Arm's adjusted value was approximately $326 billion, SVF2 was about $126 billion, SVF1 was around $23.5 billion, SoftBank Corp. was about $18.2 billion, and the remainder was mainly the LatAm Fund and other assets.
Since OpenAI already accounts for most of SVF2, it can be intuitively understood that Arm and OpenAI contribute the majority of the market value. Arm and OpenAI alone reach approximately $331 billion, equivalent to 136% of SoftBank's current market cap of $244 billion.
Therefore, when analyzing SoftBank now, there are actually very few core variables: how much Arm is worth, and how much OpenAI is worth.
NAV Discount of About 34% Appears Modest, but Remains Deep After OpenAI Revaluation
After updating Arm's share price, SoftBank's current NAV is about $366.5 billion, with its current market cap at around $244 billion, representing an NAV discount of about 34%.
Looking at 34% alone, SoftBank's discount is not exaggerated. However, the most critical issue here is that OpenAI is still included in NAV at a valuation of around $852 billion. OpenAI completed a $122 billion funding round in March 2026 at a post-money valuation of $852 billion; as of the end of June, the book fair value of SoftBank's OpenAI stake was $89.6 billion, after which it made two additional $10 billion investments, resulting in a final 13% stake.
If OpenAI's valuation rises further after going public, SoftBank's NAV will undergo a massive change. Below is the scenario analysis.
OpenAI Valuation | Value of SoftBank's OpenAI Stake | Revalued SoftBank NAV | NAV Discount at Current Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
$0.85 trillion | About $111 billion | About $366.5 billion | 34% |
$2 trillion | $260 billion | About $516 billion | 53% |
$2.5 trillion | $325 billion | About $581 billion | 58% |
$3 trillion | $390 billion | About $646 billion | 62% |
In other words, 34% is merely an apparent discount calculated based on OpenAI's current valuation. After revaluing OpenAI at a $2–3 trillion valuation, SoftBank's current actual discount reaches 53%–62%, remaining relatively deep. |
GPT-6 Astra Makes Major Progress as OpenAI Set to Gain B2B and B2C Market Share
OpenAI's revaluation is not merely an IPO catalyst, but also reflects a sustained improvement in fundamentals.
OpenAI currently still holds an absolute scale advantage in the consumer segment. Latest disclosures show that OpenAI products already have over 1 billion weekly active users while covering 2.5 million enterprises. The usage habits formed by consumers will in turn penetrate workplace scenarios, which serves as OpenAI's largest natural distribution advantage in the enterprise segment.
The problem OpenAI truly needs to address lies in the enterprise segment.
According to statistics based on actual payment data from U.S. enterprises by Ramp, Anthropic's enterprise adoption rate reached 43.5% in July 2026, compared to 39.7% for OpenAI. Anthropic had previously overtaken OpenAI by relying on Claude's advantage in coding and professional work.
The biggest advancement of GPT-6 Astra this time happens to focus on these scenarios.
AutomationBench tests the automation capabilities of real professional work, where Astra scored 41.4%, compared to just 18.1% for GPT-5.6 Sol and 31.4% for Claude Fable 5.1; Terminal-Bench 4.0 tests software engineering, system configuration, and data analysis, with Astra reaching 57.9%, compared to 37.3% for GPT-5.6 and 55.8% for Claude Fable 5.1.
Computer Use has also shown significant improvement. In OSWorld 2.0, Astra reached a score of 72.6%, compared to 65.7% for GPT-5.6; in Agents' Last Exam, it reached 59.3%, higher than GPT-5.6's 53.6% and Claude Opus 5's 55.5%.
Furthermore, Astra's advantages are not limited to capabilities; its cost advantage is also pronounced.
In Terminal-Bench 4.0, Astra scored higher than Claude Fable 5.1, while its per-task API cost was approximately 63% lower; in Terminal-Bench Science, Astra scored 64.6% against Claude Fable 5.1's 52.6%, while also being about 31% lower in cost.
This metric is especially critical for the enterprise segment. What businesses are actually buying is task completion. If a coding agent has a higher API invocation price but a higher first-pass completion rate and fewer rework cycles, the final task cost may actually be lower.
Previously, Anthropic's biggest advantage was building a clear lead in coding and complex professional tasks. Although OpenAI possessed a larger consumer user base, it failed to fully convert that advantage into enterprise market share. Astra's performance boost this time directly addresses OpenAI's most obvious previous weakness.
Therefore, following Astra, OpenAI is expected to improve its market share in both consumer and enterprise segments simultaneously: reinforcing its leading position on the consumer side by leveraging its billion-scale user base and enhanced model capabilities, while having the opportunity to overtake Anthropic once again on the enterprise side.
OpenAI IPO Imminent: Best Strategy Is to Hold Until Listing
OpenAI confidentially submitted its IPO paperwork to the SEC in June 2026, with investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advancing the listing process. OpenAI had previously discussed going public in 2026, but the listing timeline is now pointing more toward 2027. As of September, preparations related to the IPO are still underway.
For SoftBank, OpenAI's IPO primarily means an asset revaluation.
OpenAI's latest funding round valued the company at $852 billion. For a company that already boasts over 1 billion weekly active users, has regained its frontier capability lead with its latest model, and is rapidly expanding its enterprise business, a post-IPO valuation of $2 trillion to $3 trillion—considering Anthropic's market cap and the competitive landscape—would significantly alter SoftBank's NAV.
For every $500 billion increase in OpenAI's valuation, based on SoftBank's 13% stake, the value of its holdings increases by $65 billion, equivalent to roughly 27% of SoftBank's current market capitalization.
The second impact of the listing is a reduction in SoftBank's own NAV discount. The OpenAI preferred shares held by SoftBank will automatically convert into common stock upon the IPO or related listing transaction. Once OpenAI transitions from one of the largest unlisted assets into a publicly traded asset with real-time pricing, the opacity of SoftBank's NAV will decrease significantly.
However, an OpenAI IPO would simultaneously drive two opposing variables:
On one hand, once OpenAI transitions from a private asset to a publicly traded asset, both its valuation transparency and liquidity will improve significantly. On the other hand, SoftBank's scarcity value as an OpenAI proxy stock will decline.
Therefore, the optimal investment strategy might be to buy now and sell before the listing.
This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.
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