SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: SPCX Rebounds Over 5% Ahead of Earnings; Can First Earnings Report Reverse Slump?

SpaceX shares rebounded on Monday, mainly driven by rising earnings expectations and the market's reassessment of Starlink's commercial value.

An important reason for SPCX's previous persistent decline was that investors began to question whether the company's high valuation could match its current profitability levels. However, as the earnings report approaches, the market is refocusing on SpaceX's most commercially valuable business—Starlink.

Compared to Starship, which is still in the R&D and testing phase, Starlink has already become SpaceX's most mature revenue source. The market expects SpaceX's second-quarter communications revenue (mainly from Starlink) to be approximately $3.83 billion, up about 17.5% quarter-on-quarter. Investors hope to confirm through the earnings report whether Starlink is becoming a business that can consistently generate cash flow.

If Starlink's user base continues to grow, while demand from corporate, aviation, maritime, and government markets expands, it will help prove that SpaceX is not just a company whose valuation is supported by future narratives, but a commercial aerospace enterprise that is already profitable.

In addition, SPCX's previous rapid decline has also eased some of the valuation pressure. The stock price has currently fallen below its IPO price of around $135, dropping to a low of $104.83, a pullback of over 50% from its peak. Analysts believe that the market has already priced in the risk of high valuations, and positive signals in the earnings report could act as a catalyst for a short-term rebound.

For investors, there are three key focus areas in this earnings report: Starlink's revenue growth, Starship's commercialization progress, and its AI initiatives.

First, Starlink is currently SpaceX's most mature commercial business, and its revenue growth is the core support for the company's valuation.

Investors need to focus on subscriber growth, revenue scale, and profitability in the earnings report. If Starlink continues to expand its penetration into enterprise, aviation, maritime, and government markets while steadily boosting profit margins, it will prove that SpaceX has transitioned from a company whose valuation is supported by future expectations into a commercial aerospace enterprise with stable cash flow. Conversely, if Starlink's user growth slows or its margins fall below market expectations, investors may re-evaluate SpaceX's current valuation level.

Second, while Starlink is already generating revenue, Starship represents SpaceX's greatest potential for future growth.

Currently, the market's focus on Starship has shifted from 'whether the tests are successful' to 'when it will achieve commercialization.' Investors want to see Starship achieve booster recovery and rapid reusability, and reduce future launch costs. If Starship progresses as planned, it can not only significantly reduce Starlink's satellite deployment costs but also support NASA's lunar missions, large commercial satellite launches, and future space infrastructure construction, thereby opening up new revenue streams.

If Musk shares a more aggressive Starship testing timeline during the earnings call, the market may raise expectations for SpaceX's long-term valuation; however, if Starship's commercialization process remains slow, investors may continue to believe its value is still mostly driven by future expectations.

In addition, AI is also an important area of focus for the market regarding SpaceX's long-term value. Musk has previously emphasized multiple times that the future development of AI will require massive computing infrastructure, and SpaceX possesses advantages in satellite networks, launch capabilities, and space infrastructure, potentially positioning it to participate in space-based computing and AI infrastructure construction in the future. However, the AI business is still in its early stages and its contribution to short-term revenue is limited. Therefore, investors need to focus on whether SpaceX can present a clear commercialization path, rather than just remaining at the level of strategic planning.

SPCX daily stock chart, Source: TradingView

If the earnings report shows continued revenue growth and margin improvement for Starlink, while Starship testing progresses smoothly and management provides positive guidance on future capital expenditures and AI initiatives, the market may view SPCX's previous pullback of over 50% as overdone, driving a stock price rebound. The initial target for the rebound would be to test the $123 resistance level; if this level is breached, it will open up further upside toward the key $150 resistance level.

In a neutral scenario, if Starlink's growth meets expectations but the Starship and AI businesses still require more time to materialize, the stock price may remain range-bound between $105 and $120, awaiting validation from more commercialization data.

Conversely, if Starlink's growth falls short of expectations while the company's future capital commitments continue to expand, the market may grow concerned about high valuations and cash flow pressures. Consequently, SPCX could retest its previous low of $104.83 or even slide to test the $100 mark.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.