Micron Stock Price Forecast: Q4 Memory Contract Prices May Peak and Fall; Will Shares Fall Below $700?

TradingKey - On July 28 Eastern Time, Micron ( MU) lost the $800 level intraday, hitting a low of $789.09, which marked its lowest level since late May. Jefferies analysts reportedly stated in a research report that memory chip prices may be closer to a peak.

Although the market expects third-quarter memory chip prices to rise another 25%-30% quarter-on-quarter, Jefferies' latest industry checks suggest that the increase may be more moderate, between 15% and 20%.

Jefferies analysts believe that most of the price increases are driven by cloud service providers, while consumer electronics manufacturers are showing fatigue toward further price hikes. "Visibility is low for the prospect of further quarter-on-quarter increases in 2027," the Jefferies analysts said, adding that the peak in memory chip prices could arrive earlier than expected.

On the other hand, the successful listing of Chinese memory manufacturer ChangXin Technology suggests that China's memory technology continues to iterate and production capacity is being steadily released, accelerating the replacement of overseas products and breaking the long-term monopoly of international giants. The global supply-demand dynamics for memory chips are reversing, and institutions like Morgan Stanley have warned that the industry cycle has already peaked, with Q4 memory contract prices potentially peaking and declining, completely ending the price-hike speculation in the memory sector.

Meanwhile, policies are currently being introduced within the US to limit the pace of data center construction. Recently, New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order imposing a moratorium of up to one year on environmental permit approvals for large-scale data centers, making New York the first US state to introduce such state-level restrictive measures.

If this prompts more US local governments to follow suit with similar policies, it will directly impact the pace of the physical expansion of AI infrastructure. Commerce Secretary Lutnick's decision on power allocation for the Ohio project will also affect the progress of OpenAI's computing power deployment.

Micron 2-Hour Stock Price Chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at Micron's stock chart, although it fell below the $800 mark intraday, it quickly recovered to trade above key levels (with an interim low of $804).

This is also currently the most important point of divergence between bulls and bears; if it decisively breaks below this level, it means the rebound from $804 to $1,011 has completely failed.

A new round of downside room opens up to the Fibonacci 1.272 extension level ($747.52), with a potential decline of -9%. Considering that Micron has already fallen by over 30% cumulatively, further declines could trigger stronger panic selling, and the downside could reach the $700 round-number mark and the Fibonacci 1.618 extension level ($675.67).

If it holds steady above the $804 level, it is expected to challenge the 5-day moving average ($840) and the Fibonacci 0.786 level ($848.73). However, to reverse the downtrend, it needs to establish a firm footing above the Fibonacci 0.5 level ($907.85), which is still 11% away from the current price and extremely difficult. Any rebound that does not exceed the Fibonacci 0.382 level ($932.35) can only be viewed as a bearish continuation.