ExxonMobil Stock Holds $163.76 as $100+ Oil and Permian Growth Put $166.65 in Focus

Exxon reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $14.68 billion which is their strongest quarterly profit in about 4 years. Their adjusted EPS came in at $3.52. Operating cash flow hit $23.56 billion and their Free Cash Flow hit $17.24 billion.

Even with the small EPS miss, cash flow looks strong as their Upstream adjusted earnings hit $9.19 billion and with their Energy Products hitting $4.10 billion, their integrated business clearly benefits them in this tight energy market.

Brent crude was around $105.90 on September 11th after hitting $110, and WTI also traded above $100. For Exxon, if Oil stays in this range, it will have positive realizations for their Upstream operations and would likely support another strong earnings report.

The spike in Oil prices will be driven, at least in part, by physical disruptions in the Middle East. While Oil prices above $100 are positive for Exxon, the spike to $110 with disruptions to shipping, risks of inflation and a recession are less possible positive outcomes than demand driven $100 Oil.

Exxon’s Permian production hit a new record of more than 1.8 million boe/day in Q2 2026. Exxon expects production from the region to reach 2.5 million boe/day by 2030, and the company’s acquisition of Pioneer has increased the company’s expected annual synergies to about $4 billion, double the original estimate.

This is positive because Exxon is focusing on more than just changes in commodity prices. Exxon has the potential to improve drilling economics and recovery rates, as well as improve other aspects of its operations in one of the largest contiguous positions across the Permian Basin.

Guyana continues to be a major long-term growth contributor with an anticipated start of Q4 2026 for a fifth FPSO and expected completion of eight FPSOs by the year 2030. Exxon’s low-cost Stabroek production provides the company with a long-duration high margin production.

LNG growth also improved this week. Exxon is taking over operatorship of Papua LNG and increasing its interest to 34.1 percent. The cost of the project is potentially around $14 billion and the final investment decision is expected by Q4 of 2026. As Exxon operates the adjacent PNG LNG, the two may provide some exciting opportunities for operational and infrastructure synergies.

On September 9, Exxon and ANPG announced a new discovery at the Vicango Este-01 well in Block 15. The well encountered about 25 meters of high-quality hydrocarbon-bearing sandstone. It is still too early to estimate the commercial size, so for now, this announcement doesn’t have any significant impact on valuation.

Block 15 having existing infrastructure also adds strategic value because any successful development would have reduced costs to tie in and may also help prolong the life of offshore assets.

Exxon has captured $16.3 billion of cumulative structural cost savings since 2019 and continues to aim for total savings of $20 billion by 2030. This further reduces the oil price needed to generate attractive free cash flow.

The company returned $9.4 billion to its shareholders in the second quarter of the year with $5.1 billion in buybacks and $4.3 billion in dividends. The management team aims for about $20 billion in share repurchases in 2026, in the case of moderately favorable market conditions.

XOM recently closed at around $165.23. That is virtually exactly in line with the chart reference, and is a positive sign. Price has surged back above the moving average at $161.75, and continues to trade above $163.76 in a bullish fashion.

ExxonMobil Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The initial resistance sits at $166.65. A break above that level would aid the breakout and suggest $168.60 is within reach. It would also suggest that the continuation of the developing higher low structure started in late August is now in force.

RSI is just below 63, and in a strong uptrend, but is not yet overbought. Below $163.76, the next supports are $161.75 and $161.25. A fall below $161.25 would have significant bearish implications and would suggest that $158.82 is now in play.

Key Levels

·       Latest completed close: $165.23

·       Key pivot support: $163.76

·       Moving average support: $161.75

·       Horizontal support: $161.25

·       Major support: $158.82

·       Breakout resistance: $166.65

·       Upside target: $168.60

·       RSI: Around 63, constructive and not overbought

An unlikely combination of $100+ oil prices, record Permian production, increasingly active Guyana, growing LNG, and new exploration has propelled Exxon into spotlight. Integrated refining and trading also gives Exxon refined products market value.

A sustained hourly close above $166.65 would confirm the recovery trend and suggest the upper target of $168.60. A downside break towards $161.25 would be extremely bearish.

ExxonMobil’s September 11 setup is strong because higher oil price is creating a strong positive impact on production and cash flows. Record Permian output, Guyana growth, Papua LNG operatorship, Pioneer synergies and structural cost savings are improving underlying Earnings. The primary risk is that higher oil prices begin to erode demand or disrupt Exxon's operations. I am bullish on Exxon as long as $163.76 holds, and $166.65 is the level I wait to break before I look toward $168.60.