Intel Stock Price Forecast: Falling Below $100 After Q2 Results, Will the Stock Price Break Below Recent Lows?

TradingKey - On July 24, Eastern Time, Intel ( INTC) saw its stock price fall over 5% intraday, breaking below the $100 round-number mark, after reporting its second-quarter 2026 financial results.

Although Intel's results and guidance were significantly better than expected, and its after-hours stock price once surged by double digits, the market subsequently shifted its focus to the "substantial upward revision in capital expenditures." Consequently, the stock's gains narrowed significantly before turning negative.

According to the earnings report, Intel's Q2 revenue reached $16.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year, marking its strongest single-quarter growth rate since 2011 and beating the market consensus of $14.4 billion by approximately 12%. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.42, doubling the average analyst estimate of $0.21.

Among these, the Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment was the highlight of this earnings report, with single-quarter revenue reaching $6.3 billion, up 59% year-over-year, setting a new historical single-quarter record for Intel's server business.

Meanwhile, Intel expects its third-quarter revenue guidance to be approximately $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion, higher than previous market expectations. However, its aggressive capacity expansion plans triggered market concerns. During the earnings call, the company announced that it is raising its 2026 capital expenditure outlook from $18 billion to over $20 billion, and clearly stated that the scale of capital expenditure in 2027 will be "significantly higher" than 2026 levels.

In fact, as early as July 23, the market had already begun selling off stocks associated with rising AI spending. On that day, Google ( GOOGL) fell over 7%, while Tesla ( TSLA) plunged over 14%. It is reported that while both tech giants delivered robust results, their capital expenditures faced skepticism from the market, with investors beginning to question whether the astronomical AI spending can continue to generate returns.

[Intel Two-Hour Stock Price Chart, Source: TradingView]

Looking at Intel's stock chart, after hitting an all-time high in late June ($142.35), the stock plummeted all the way from its peak, touching an interim low of $89.59 in intraday trading on July 17, representing a decline of approximately 28% over that period.

The current stock price has broken below all moving averages, presenting a typical bearish alignment, which is a technical sign of an oversold condition. However, this does not indicate a reversal; as long as the moving averages do not turn and flatten out, any rebound will be difficult to sustain.

From the Fibonacci retracement perspective, in terms of downside room, the recent low ($89.59) is currently the most critical support level. Once broken effectively, it means the decline will enter an accelerated phase, opening up downside potential to the Fibonacci 1.272 level ($84.91) with a potential drop of 10%, or even the Fibonacci 1.618 level ($78.94) with a potential drop of 16%.

In terms of upside room, the first target for the current stock price rebound remains the convergence zone of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages ($96-$98). If it fails to break above $100 and the Fibonacci 0.236 level ($102.05), it will prove that bullish momentum remains weak, meaning the bears will continue to dominate the market.