Robinhood (HOOD) Jumps 9% on Record Trading Volume — Can the Rally Continue Above $105?

As CEO Vlad Tenev noted, Robinhood's planned layoffs come at a time of business strength rather than weakness and are intended to "flatten our organization, speed up product velocity, and retain a nimble high-performing culture as the business scales." The market reaction to the layoffs supports this thesis: Robinhood has announced a 10% reduction in its headcount at a time when platform trading volumes are at record highs, a very different signal than announcing the same workforce reduction alongside an earnings miss.

Robinhood estimates it will incur approximately $28 million in restructuring costs in Q2 2026, a relatively small one-time expense given the longer-term benefits to profitability margins as a result of the restructuring. Analyst Brian Bedell of Deutsche Bank raised his price target on HOOD to $105, from $98, in his note specifically noting the combination of the announced layoffs in addition to record volumes across equities, options, and prediction markets in the month of June. Bedell has also reduced his adjusted 2026 expense expectation to the low end of Robinhood's previous range of $2.70 billion to $2.825 billion.

The layoffs in addition to the recent uptick in platform activity is all coinciding with the record SpaceX IPO this past week, which Robinhood claims led to some of the highest daily traffic on the platform. The high volume of users resulted in "slight latency for some users" as traffic was high enough that a few people were "unabled to gain access to the platform," according to Robinhood. Meanwhile, Robinhood Securities recently got the nod as an underwriter for the space company IPO and facilitated a SpaceX IPO for 855,424 people, marking an expansion for Robinhood outside its traditional brokerage services into capital markets and deal flow for investors. Also, Rothera, which is the new joint venture between Robinhood and Rothera, will provide prediction markets to customers routed through Rothera, giving the brokerage another vector for growth by recapturing more economics from these prediction markets than just the brokerage business alone provides.

The main fundamental weak spot this past week for the Robinhood case was crypto. In May 2026, crypto trading volume within the Robinhood app totaled $5.9 billion, marking a 50% drop compared to the same month last year. This downward trend is what ultimately resulted in Robinhood missing its Q1 earnings call; the firm delivered $1.07 billion in revenue versus an expected $1.17 billion, with crypto trading revenue dropping 47% year-over-year to roughly $134 million on the back of lower volumes. However, equity trading volumes have been more than picking up the slack, according to the most recent numbers, surging 75% year-over-year, and with options contracts also higher by 29%, Robinhood management has characterized the trend change as retail capital rotating towards AI plays rather than an actual drop in user activity.

What that means for the longevity of the rally is that if it is a simple substitution of one highly engaged asset class for another, rather than a platform experiencing an overall drop in engagement, that paints a more sustainable picture. Still, the crypto portion of Robinhood's transaction revenue remains the single most variable item to keep an eye on as we wait for Q2 results to come in on August 5.

On the other side of the ledger, valuation is another contentious point between bulls and bears right now. While HOOD currently has a price-to-earnings multiple above 46 that a number of analysts argue is an expensive premium over the rest of the brokerage peer group, especially with the history of quarterly misses coming as the result of a shift in crypto volumes, the 15-3-0 Strong Buy rating from the last three months reflects confidence that Robinhood platform-asset growth and the rollout of new services in prediction markets, IRAs, and access to capital markets should support this valuation. However, the multiple allows little room for error should the equity trading spike that drove this week's headline numbers fade before crypto recovers.

On the daily timeframe, HOOD at $105.20, after the 8.78% move on Friday, is now trading well above the EMA50 at $84.14 and the EMA200 at $88.99 in a rising channel with a series of higher highs and higher lows. RSI at 69.41 is edging into overbought territory, but without any evidence of bearish divergence, the bullish momentum remains strong, suggesting more of a FOMO-inspired extension in the making with no clear signs of fatigue yet.

Robinhood Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

From the $78.91 low, the Fibonacci roadmap sees a 1.618 extension already breached at $104.06, the 2.0 extension at $109.99, the 2.272 extension at $114.22, and the 2.618 extension at $119.60. In addition, the rising channel extension projects further upside towards $130 and higher on continued momentum.

With RSI in close proximity to the overbought zone in the run-up to the weekend with no major catalysts on the schedule, we should consider the possibility of a slowdown or a pullback to the $98.70 support, which was the last swing point before the prior rally, but we can also continue to expect the upside to remain intact.

• Entry: Long above $109.99, Breakout of the 2.0 Fib extension
• Target: $119.60, Target is the 2.618 Fib extension
• Channel extension: $130+ on sustained momentum
• Stop Loss: Close below $98.70, failure of support
• Next catalyst: 2Q 2026 earnings, August 5, 2026

Robinhood stock rallied to $105.20 this week following the company's announcement of a 10% staff cutback on June 16, with Robinhood's CEO Vlad Tenev calling it a move to increase efficiency that reflects confidence rather than financial weakness. This came with the news that Robinhood's management also noted that June trading volume on the app's equity, options and "prediction markets" so far this month is the highest ever. Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Needham and Argus all increased their price targets on the Robinhood stock this week. Robinhood stock was also buoyed by reports that platform assets climbed to $377 billion in May, a 48% jump over a year earlier as total funded customer accounts on Robinhood reached 27.7 million.

Yes. Crypto in-app trading volume fell 50% year-over-year to $5.9 billion in May 2026, a development that contributed to the company's Q1 2026 total revenue of $1.07 billion missing Wall Street forecasts of $1.17 billion as crypto revenue specifically fell 47% year-over-year. While equity trading volumes up 75% year-over-year have more than made up the loss to date as capital rotation sees retail traders chasing AI-related plays, crypto has always been the most sensitive component for the firm ahead of the company's Q2 earnings on August 5.

HOOD stock is trading at RSI 69.41 on the 1-month chart and is approaching overbought levels with no clear bearish divergences yet as momentum has been strong and price remains well above EMA50 and EMA200. A long above $109.99 has the potential to reach a first target price of $119.60 while a stop-loss is set just below $98.70. Given the potential for the momentum to be approaching overbought territory again given there aren't any scheduled catalysts for the weekend, it's not unreasonable for us to think some consolidation to perhaps $98.70 may be in store in the near-term even as the long-term uptrend remains intact. With that said, the "Strong Buy" analyst consensus and the record platform activity metrics should give a boost to HOOD stock to continue on the upside, although the P/E above 46 and heavy exposure to crypto in-app volume are two important variables for investors to follow going into Q2 earnings.

Robinhood shares gained 8.78% to $105.20 this week, buoyed by a sense that the company's record-high trading volume for June, a $377 billion year-over-year increase of 48% in May platform assets and the recent announcement of a 10% workforce cutback being viewed as an efficiency initiative and not financial weakness, outweigh the 50% year-over-year decline in crypto volume, which is the only notable negative in an otherwise strong week. With a P/E above 46, the company may need to perform well when it reports earnings in August to keep this stock above $98.70.

And while the stock remains in a clear uptrend with no clear divergence as RSI sits around 69.41, approaching 70, and the stock is well above the EMA50 and EMA200, the stock could pause this weekend given there are no major catalysts until Monday morning. A trade above $109.99 could lead the stock to test $119.60 as a first target, but a stop at $98.70 makes sense given the potential for a short-term pullback.