Wall Street Debates 2026 SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, Will the AI Bubble Burst?

SpaceX plans to launch its roadshow as early as June 4 and finalize pricing around June 11, targeting a valuation of approximately $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion with a fundraising size of up to $75 billion. Elon Musk publicly disclosed IPO documents on May 20; the company's business spans three major sectors: space launch, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence.

OpenAI plans to complete its IPO as early as September, following an $852 billion valuation disclosed in March. Anthropic has just closed a $65 billion Series H financing round, with its post-money valuation climbing to $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI; it is also expected to officially launch its listing process this fall.

The combined fundraising scale for the three major IPOs could exceed $200 billion. Analysts have pointed out that in the first quarter of 2026, global venture capital firms invested approximately $300 billion in around 6,000 startups, with about 80% of that capital flowing into AI-related fields. Whether public market liquidity is sufficient to simultaneously accommodate these three 'behemoths' has become the primary uncertainty.

Bank of America stated that this epic IPO cycle is essentially a large-scale transfer of accumulated risk from early investors to the public market.

The risk signal that Wall Street is most focused on comes from Bank of America, with Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett comparing current market mania to several historical bubble extremes.

He warned that the listings of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will cause the technology sector's weight in the S&P 500 to breach the 48% historical threshold, surpassing concentration peaks seen during the 'Roaring Twenties', the 'Nifty Fifty' of the 1970s, the Japanese stock market of the 1980s, and the TMT bubble of the 1990s.

Citigroup also described the current market as being in a highly frothy state.

The time windows for these three major IPOs are extremely concentrated, with SpaceX scheduled for mid-June and OpenAI and Anthropic targeting the fall, creating resonance with historical empirical cases of the IPO liquidity crowding-out effect.

Additionally, more than 600 current and former OpenAI employees have sold $6.6 billion in company stock through the secondary market ahead of the IPO; this early exit by shareholders is itself a negative signal to the market regarding valuation peaks. Several analysis articles also pointed out that this IPO wave is essentially a 'cash-out operation' where early investors transfer accumulated position risk on a large scale to retail investors and pension funds.

Active investors such as PIMCO and BlackRock have stated that the AI infrastructure capital expenditure cycle is still accelerating and no fundamental disruption is expected.

Investment banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, which lead the underwriting for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, believe that the liquidity impact of mega-IPOs on the market is manageable, noting that as global investors chase tech and AI themes in 2026, the IPO window is actually supported by ample liquidity.

Bulls argue that the positive feedback loop of this round of AI infrastructure investment—driven by long-term orders from hyperscale customers locking in cash flows and continuous institutional inflows—is fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble of 2000, which was fueled by excessive market speculation.

Bulls are focused on whether the IPOs of these giants can attract sufficient global allocation capital, thereby simultaneously injecting fresh upward liquidity into the AI theme.

For investors, when three giants with a combined valuation approaching $3 trillion engage in concentrated fundraising within a span of a few months, the market's pricing mechanism will shift from being driven by fundamentals to being driven by liquidity.

Even if the business prospects for each company are promising, the pace of selling by early investors after the lock-up periods expire 12 to 18 months post-IPO, along with whether the profitability of these three companies can sustain trillion-dollar valuations, will be the critical factors determining the trajectory of the AI sector.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.