優莎納 (USNA) 2026 年第三季法說會：Hiya 成長，調降 EBITDA 展望

USANA Health Sciences (USNA) 公布 2026 財年第三季營運表現好壞參半，核心營養業務 (Core Nutrition) 獲利能力增強以及 Hiya 動能重燃，但被核心營養業務客戶減少與 Rise Wellness 銷售疲軟所抵銷。管理階層目前預期 2026 財年淨銷售額將接近 9 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 約為 7,700 萬美元。

重點摘要

• 2026 財年淨銷售額預計將接近 9 億美元，而調整後 EBITDA 財測則從 8,050 萬美元下修至約 7,700 萬美元。
• 核心營養業務活躍客戶數年減 8%。管理階層預期該部門銷售額約為 7.4 億美元，較最新預期低 1,000 萬美元。
• 東南亞及太平洋地區淨銷售額在上一季下滑 13% 後，本季年增 2%。活躍客戶數較前一季成長 3%。
• Hiya 每月活躍訂閱用戶數季增 18%，淨增加約 29,500 人。管理階層將 Hiya 的 2026 年淨銷售額預期上調至 1.3 億美元。
• 今年初至今的營運現金流從 2,600 萬美元增至 4,500 萬美元，自由現金流達到 3,600 萬美元。USANA 截至本季末擁有 1.79 億美元現金，且零負債。
• Rise Wellness 財測再次遭到下修，主因量販通路訂單仍低於預期，且銷售額持續受到訂單入帳時點影響。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

核心營養業務

由於活動與獎酬費用減少，核心營養業務的營業利益率有所改善。部分改善反映出有利的基期比較，主因去年同期的獎酬計劃費用未再次發生。

客戶成長趨勢依然疲軟。活躍客戶數年減 8%，其中大中華區占銷售額與活躍客戶數季減的大部分份額。若排除東南亞及太平洋地區，所有區域按固定匯率計算均呈現下滑。

東南亞及太平洋地區是主要的改善亮點。銷售額年增 2%，相較於上一季的下滑 13% 明顯改善，活躍客戶數則較前一季增加 3%。管理階層將該改善歸因於一線領導人更深入的參與、多個市場的領導層換血，以及成功的激勵計劃。

USANA 計劃透過品牌投資、產品推出以及調整激勵計劃，來促進新客獲取與客戶留存。新產品規劃將部分聚焦於婦女與兒童，預計將於 2027 年期間推出。

Hiya

隨著獲客成本自上半年水準下降，Hiya 銷售額重回年成長軌道。USANA 加大數位行銷投資，推動每月活躍訂閱用戶數季增 18%，淨增加約 29,500 名訂閱戶。

來自 Target 與亞馬遜的合計銷售額較第二季翻倍以上，不過管理階層指出此比較基期較小。Hiya 亦正透過創作者與聯盟行銷計劃以及 TikTok Shop 來擴大獲客。

由於新客戶享有首次訂單折扣及精裝初始包裝，較高的獲客支出壓縮了近期利潤率。管理階層表示，Hiya 的留存率與客戶終身價值依然強勁，隨著新獲取的訂閱用戶在後續季度帶來貢獻，獲利預期將有所改善。該公司亦指出，零售銷售的利潤率高於直面消費者 (DTC) 通路。

Rise Wellness

Rise Wellness 仍面臨量販通路訂單波動帶來的壓力。去年同期包含一筆大額 Rise Bar 量販訂單，本期未再出現，而當前量販訂單再次低於公司預期。

USANA 正將 Rise 的分銷網絡擴展至量販通路之外。管理階層預計到 2026 年底，Protein Pop 將進駐包含 Target 與超市在內的 4,100 個零售據點。結合蛋白質與益生元纖維的 Protein Pop Balance 已於 9 月在 Target 上市，預計將成為該品牌在 2027 年的核心重點。

管理階層財測

管理階層預期 2026 財年淨銷售額將接近 9 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 約達 7,700 萬美元。EBITDA 較先前預期的 8,050 萬美元下修，主要反映 Rise 銷售疲軟及 Hiya 投資增加，但部分被核心營養業務獲利能力增強所抵銷。

針對 Hiya，管理階層預期第四季淨銷售額與調整後 EBITDA 均將較前一季成長。該展望假設第三季新增訂閱戶將貢獻一整個季度，且 Target 與亞馬遜將持續累積動能。

核心營養業務全年銷售額預計約為 7.4 億美元，仍落在 2026 年初提供的預估區間內，但由於活躍客戶數減少，低於該公司的最新預測。

Rise 的展望假設排定的第四季零售訂單如期出貨。管理階層表示，若這些訂單遞延至 2027 年第一季，2026 財年銷售額與獲利可能會略低於更新後的預期，相應貢獻則將轉移至 2027 年。

風險與關注重點

• 核心營養業務的活躍客戶群仍面臨壓力，尤其是在大中華區。
• Hiya 偏高的獲客投資可能導致單季 EBITDA 與利潤率出現波動。
• Rise Wellness 部分依賴量販通路訂單，管理階層形容此類訂單本質上較為零散不均，且在時程上不受公司控制。
• 隨著 Rise 建立更廣泛的零售分銷通路，改善毛利率仍是其首要任務。
• Hiya 的無形資產攤銷以及 USANA 創投業務目前的表現，仍是稅率方面的阻力。
• 調整激勵計劃與推出新產品所帶來的預期效益，預計將是逐步顯現而非立竿見影。

分析師問答重點

管理階層表示，核心營養業務激勵計劃的初期調整將獎酬向前移至計劃較早階段，以鼓勵獲客並協助新品牌夥伴更早取得成功。進一步的調整將聚焦於資格門檻與獎金發放時程，以提升留存率、忠誠度與客戶終身價值。相關變動預計將於 2027 年分階段推行。

在 Hiya 方面，管理階層解釋獲客成本下降為第三季加速訂閱用戶成長帶來了機會。此項支出雖壓抑了初期利潤率，但公司預期隨著訂閱用戶保持活躍且零售占銷售組合比重增加，獲利能力將會提升。Hiya 亦計劃於 2027 年第一季初進軍量販通路。

針對 Rise Wellness，管理階層強調在 Target 與超市建立更穩定的零售基礎，以降低對波動較大的量販訂單之依賴。Protein Pop Balance 將是近期的主要產品重點，不過後續也已規劃其他產品。

在稅務方面，管理階層指出 Hiya、Rise 及其他創投業務若能取得更佳的執行成效，將是逐步減輕實質稅負的主要契機。此外，只要此類調整在營運上能支援業務發展，公司亦考慮在各別市場中將更多支出配置於更貼近消費者的端點。

法說會完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the USANA Health Sciences Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce speaker, Andrew Masuda, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Andrew Masuda

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us to review our third quarter results. Today's conference call is being broadcast live via webcast and can be accessed directly from our website at ir.usana.com.

Shortly following the call, a replay will be available on our website. As a reminder, during the course of this conference call, management will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of our company. Those statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ perhaps materially from the results projected in such forward-looking statements.

Examples of these statements include those regarding our strategies and outlook for fiscal year 2026, uncertainty related to the economic and operating environment around the world and our operations and financial results. We caution you that these statements should be considered in conjunction with disclosures, including specific risk factors and financial data contained in our most recent filings with the SEC.

During today's call, we will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release. I'm joined by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Guest; our Chief Financial Officer, Doug Hekking; our Chief Commercial Officer, Brent Neidig; our Chief Operating Officer, Walter Noot; our Chief Scientific Officer, Dr. Kathryn Armstrong; and other executives.

Yesterday, after the market closed, we announced our third quarter results and posted our management commentary document on the company's website. We'll now hear brief remarks from Kevin and Doug before opening the call for questions.

Kevin Guest

Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to speak to the strategy we're executing, where we're seeing progress and where we still have work to do. Our earnings release and management commentary present the numbers for the business. So I'll focus on providing context for the numbers and then ask Doug to add more color on how our strategy is coming to fruition.

Overall, this was a mixed quarter, but one where I'm encouraged by the progress we're seeing with our strategy. Our strategy is to evolve USANA from a single channel direct selling company into a diversified omnichannel health and wellness company built on consumer acquisition and loyalty.

In Core Nutrition, we're working to increase customer acquisition and customer loyalty by investing in the USANA brand, bringing new products to market and further refining our incentive structure. Through Hiya and Rise Wellness, we're expanding our business to reach consumers at more venues where they already shop, including retail and Amazon. Our debt-free balance sheet lets us fund this expansion with discipline.

Let me start with what's working. In our Core Nutritional business, we generated improved operating profitability through lower event and compensation expenses. Part of that is favorable -- is a favorable comparison against compensation plan in the last year's quarter that did not repeat, but the cost base is in better shape, and that gives us a stronger foundation to invest from.

We also saw real improvement in Southeast Asia Pacific regions. Net sales grew 2% year-over-year after declining 13% last quarter. Active customers grew 3% sequentially and engagement among our field leaders has increased. It's one region and still early, but it's the improvement we're working on to generate elsewhere.

At Hiya, after a difficult year for digital advertising, results began to improve. The team has been diversifying how it reaches customers beyond a single advertising platform, building creator and affiliate programs and more recently, launching TikTok Shop.

As customer acquisition costs came down from the first half of the year, we intentionally invested in digital marketing to drive customer acquisition. Active monthly subscribers grew 18% sequentially, adding about 29,500 net subscribers and net sales returned to year-over-year growth. Target and Amazon net sales combined more than doubled from the second quarter, albeit from a small base.

Back-to-school seasonality helped and the added marketing investment pressured near-term margins. So we're staying measured, but the early results are encouraging. Hiya has historically seen strong retention and lifetime value. So the customers we add today should contribute for many quarters to come, which is why our focus is now on engaging and retaining them.

Reflecting this progress, we raised our Hiya net sales outlook to $130 million. There's still plenty of work ahead, and I'll take a few more minutes to share my thoughts on where we need to do better. First, Core Nutrition. We're tracking inside the range we expected for the year, but it isn't where we want to be. And the clearest example is active customers, which are down 8% year-over-year.

Greater China, our largest market, accounted for most of the sequential decline in net sales and active customers. On lighter incentive and promotional activity during the third quarter and outside of Southeast Asia Pacific, every region declined in constant currency.

Growing our active customer base remains our top priority. Our brand investment, product innovation that we plan to begin introducing in 2027 and the incentive plan refinements are all aimed at growth in active customers, and we expect the benefits to build gradually.

Second, we're not satisfied with Rise Wellness' results, and we're lowering our outlook again. Last year's third quarter included a large club order for Rise Bar that did not repeat, and club orders again came in below our expectations. Club channel sales are inherently lumpy and reflect in part order timing that we do not control.

Improving gross margin remains a priority. Protein Pop is still a young brand. We launched Protein Pop Balance in Target in September. As we said, we would and our goal is to broaden distribution beyond the club channel and turn this effort into more consistent results.

Third, Hiya. The work ahead is retention, building retail and improving profitability. So while there are -- there's plenty of opportunity for improvement in all our brands, we're making progress, and I'm encouraged by what we're seeing come to fruition. These early results reinforce my confidence in our strategy and in the actions we're taking. With that, I'll ask Doug to walk through the correction to our second quarter non-GAAP figures and add some color on the outlook.

G. Hekking

Thanks, Kevin. I'll briefly cover our updated outlook and our cash position and then turn it back to Kevin. With the third quarter in the books, we now expect net sales approaching $900 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $77 million compared with our prior outlook of $80.5 million.

The change reflects softer sales at Rise, our decision to invest at Hiya, which is partially offset by stronger profitability in the Core Nutritional segment. With about 2 months left in the year, we anticipate Hiya will build on momentum for the third quarter with sequential growth in net sales and adjusted EBITDA as the subscribers we add in the third quarter contribute for a full quarter and retail and Amazon keep building.

For Core Nutritional, we're assuming net sales of roughly $740 million within the range we provided at the beginning of the year and $10 million below our most recent outlook, reflecting fewer active customers. For Rise, our outlook assumes certain retail orders currently scheduled for the fourth quarter to ship as planned. If the timing of those orders shift into the first quarter, our 2026 results could be modestly below the outlook, though we would expect any changes in net sales and earnings to be realized in 2027.

Finally, cash. Cash from operations totaled $45 million year-to-date, up from $26 million last year, and free cash flow was $36 million, more than double last year. Inventory being down 13% from the end of the year was also a positive. We ended the quarter with $179 million in cash and no debt, which gives us the flexibility to continue investing in our strategy and drive future growth. With that, I'll turn it back to Kevin.

Kevin Guest

Thanks, Doug. To close, we still have plenty of opportunity for improvement, but I repeat, we're making progress. Our priorities are clear: grow customer acquisition and loyalty in Core Nutrition, engage and retain Hiya's new subscribers and improve margins at Rise. We have a strategy we believe in and the teams who are executing it. Thank you for joining us. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question we will hear from Anthony Lebiedzinski with Sidoti.

分析師問答

Anthony Lebiedzinski

So first, on the Core Nutritional side, it was good to see some pockets of growth, as you called out, the Southeast Asia Pacific. I guess it's a multipart question here. Are you doing anything meaningfully different there versus the other regions?

And I guess the second part of that question, as you look to evolve your brand partner incentive plan, can you give more specifics as far as what changes do you expect to achieve from this? What's the time frame as to when we could see some improvements in the customer count and also the segment revenue as well?

Kevin Guest

Those are excellent questions. We have some really strong leadership around the world, and we are seeing some things work in Southeast Asia that we are expanding in other markets around the world. I'd love to have Brent Neidig, our Chief Commercial Officer, who deals directly with those markets, also respond to that question.

Brent Neidig

Thanks, Kevin. Anthony, thank you for the question. Yes, it was great to see the results from Southeast Asia. I think it's a combination of many things. Southeast Asia has been in a rebuild for the last many quarters and a couple of years actually.

We've changed leadership in several markets, and that's producing fruit. In the quarter specifically, we had an incentive program that ran, which was quite successful. We are going to build on that into the fourth quarter. But I think where the real magic came together was that we have seen a great deal of reengagement from our top brand partner leaders in many of those core markets, specifically in Australia, Malaysia, even in Korea, the Philippines.

And that combination of reengagement from our brand partners who are driving the growth, combined with the incentive program that we ran is really delivering the results that we're seeing. I wouldn't necessarily call it a new trend line, but we're very optimistic to see those results continue to build in some of those core markets. Remind me the second part of that question, Anthony?

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Sure. Yes. So as far as the comment about evolving your brand partner incentive plan, so if you could just comment on what types of changes you expect to achieve from these incentive plan changes and kind of the time frame as to when we could see some tangible results from that?

Brent Neidig

Yes, sure. We've talked about this many times. Our major evolution to the plan took place last year in July is when the first parts of that rolled out. What that was designed to do was to bring some more money from the back end of the plan to the front end to encourage increased acquisition and help people see success as they -- as soon as they come in the door. That's been successful.

We have seen increased brand partner engagement. And when you look at the numbers, our brand partner decline is less than our preferred customer decline. So we think that the acquisition engine is still intact and still working. Where we really see an opportunity going forward is in consumer loyalty. And Kevin addressed that in his prepared remarks.

But the consumer loyalty piece, that's where we see an opportunity to make some slight adjustments to the current plan, nothing major, but some adjustments to qualification criteria and timing of payout of certain incentives, which we believe will drive increased retention and loyalty, ultimately driving LTV. So that's the program that we've got queued up, and we expect that to roll out throughout 2027. So it's going to be a phased-in approach.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Got it. Yes. And then as far as the comment on the -- as far as new product introduction, can you speak to the pipeline of new products that you have for next year? And also, it looks like you're going to be a bit more aggressive with digital marketing. How do we think about the impact that may have on your costs?

Kevin Guest

Well, those are great questions. Meeting people where they're at is a key part of our strategy and also speaking to them effectively where they're at and relevant communications is a big part of that as we think about our product launch and expansion and growth. And we've actually done a couple of test markets here in the U.S. that are reaping positive results that we're very optimistic around the consumer-driven product-based offerings. And so -- but I would like to ask Kathryn Armstrong. Dr. Armstrong is our Chief Science Officer. And would you comment on his question?

Kathryn Armstrong

Anthony, this is Kathryn. Thanks, Kevin. When we talk about our new product launches, to Kevin's point, it's really about the holistic approach of how do we bring these to market. And so we're focusing a lot on women's and kids initiatives.

To Kevin's point, we have a lot of experience in those areas, and we've been testing out new ideas, both through our core brand as well as through our extended set of brands in terms of how we can leverage product execution to drive customer loyalty. And you can expect to see those coming to fruition in 2027 with launches.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Okay. And then with respect to Hiya, how do we think about the balance between marketing spending and profitability for the brand? And I guess as you look to scale Hiya across the core subscription business and add more retail, kind of as you look at building this brand over the course of the next few years, how do we think about gross margins, operating margins for Hiya, where they could be?

Kevin Guest

When we first acquired Hiya, the thing that got me really excited -- most excited about Hiya was the competency of their team and how proactive and how effective they were at building a national brand and how focused they were.

And it's great to see them expand and grow inside their channel and their product base. But I'd like to ask Walter, who's coordinating from our home office with the Hiya leadership team on the go-forward and execution.

Walter Noot

Yes. Think about it this way, Anthony. So when the customer first buys from Hiya, first order is half price. And the first order comes with a nice bottle and it's got a really nice box, and it's an expensive presentation that gets sent to that customer. Hiya invests in that new customer. And we have a really high LTV and it's very predictable.

It's been predictable since the beginning, we've actually seen it gone up over the last year. And so with Hiya, you'll see months like September, especially September, but even this last quarter, where CAC went down a little bit. And so it gave us an opportunity to go out and acquire more customers. And you saw a net gain of about 30,000 new customers that came in. And those customers are going to stay for a long time.

And so what happens in first month is you'll see lower EBITDA, lower margins, and then you'll start seeing us reap that just like Doug said. So in Q4, you'll start seeing margins going up quite substantially. Same thing that will probably happen in Q1 of next year, you'll see a lot more acquisition because beginning of the year, we'll acquire a whole bunch more customers.

And then throughout the year, we'll start benefiting from that. And then on the retail space, we have a much higher margin on the retail space. So we're in Target right now. That's getting us good margins, and that's growing fairly quickly. And then we're going into club at the beginning of next year and early Q1. And so you'll see -- as time goes on, I think we'll build a nice base. With DTC, especially with Hiya's business, the kind of the way it's set up with that first order being half price, that creates some inconsistency in EBITDA. But over time, as we start adding retail, that will start to change.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Okay. That's very helpful context. And then kind of, I guess, a similar question on Rise Wellness. So it does appear that it's a bit more lumpy than expected. However, as you look to diversify your retail distribution, how do we think about sales and profitability for the brand and whether that includes any new additional products that you're thinking of as far as potentially announcing next year? Just how do we think about the trajectory for Rise Wellness?

Walter Noot

So with Rise, like you said, it has been lumpy, especially because of club stores. And even though we still are -- it's very promising. Club stores are still very interested in the brand and what we're doing with them. It's just that they do a lot of testing with us and they'll order on a regional basis rather than a national basis at times. So we're going kind of back and forth.

But we have, not just conversations, but we've got orders coming in, and we think it's going to be positive long term. But in the meantime, we've had to start building a base because if you think about it, Protein Pop was a brand-new brand last year. I mean, this is September last year, we launched at Target. So it's a new brand we have to build up.

We have gone -- by the end of this year, we'll have in the retail space, not club, but this is grocery and Target and grocery. We'll have 4,100 stores that we'll be in, which is a huge amount of growth that's all happened this year. That will build a base for us and allow us to -- especially in grocery, there's a better profitability margin for us.

And so I think that you'll see, obviously, we didn't do well this year because -- especially because of club and because of some of the lumpiness of that business. This year -- this next year and the rest of this year, we'll start having more business going through those retail channels.

Protein Pop is -- the units per store and dollars per store is the #1 clear protein product in the U.S. So it's -- and that's a product that started in September last year. So there's -- and there's a huge opportunity for us still in the grocery space and in the club space. We are -- we have just launched a new product in Protein Pop, that's called Protein Pop Balance. It's a prebiotic fiber and a protein. And it's a lower amount of protein. So it competes in the grocery aisle -- or sorry, in the soda aisle.

So because of that, we think we'll get more units per user, per customer. We think it will consume more. And we also think that being in the soda aisle, we'll get a lot more sales per store per week. And that's really been our focus. I think for the next year, I mean, we definitely have new products we'll be launching. But I think Protein Pop Balance is probably our focus for the next year.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

And I guess my last question is probably for Doug. So the tax rate has been a headwind. Just wondering if there are any things that you can try to do to minimize the tax impact, anything structurally that you could perhaps do differently or as far as the tax impact? And how do we think about the tax rate beyond 2026?

G. Hekking

Yes. I think everything that we just talked about with Hiya, Rise and even Kevin's strategic comments on the Core, all feed into that. I think we've had a little bit of a drag on our venture companies, which I think are -- there's so much positive information there. But as you see that, you just don't get the benefit from a tax standpoint, I think particularly with the amortization of intangibles at Hiya.

And so that really is a headwind. And so one of the things we look at is the absolute tax amount. And the rate is not something, believe me, we sit through Board meetings. And it's a comment every Board meeting, and it's an interesting navigation. I think there's opportunities to shift some of the spend closer to the consumers in different markets, and there's some opportunity there. I think any of those considerations, we want to be very thoughtful and very intentional about something that's going to be additive to the business. But I think just generally getting traction in the businesses and executing on the plans that we have with our venture companies are the best opportunity.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back to Andrew Masuda for closing remarks.

Andrew Masuda

Thank you, Rochelle, and thanks for your questions and participation on today's conference call. If you have any remaining questions, please feel free to contact Investor Relations at (801) 954-7210.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.