VPG 2026年第三季法說會：創紀錄感測器訂單量支撐2027年成長展望

重點摘要

• VPG 公布 2026 財年第三季 GAAP 淨營收為 8,510 萬美元。在扣除轉交給客戶的 230 萬美元關稅退款後，調整後營收為 8,740 萬美元，季增 4%，年增 10%。
• 調整後訂單金額達 1.03 億美元，綜合接單出貨比（B/B ratio）為 1.17。三大業務部門的接單出貨比均高於 1.0，季末在手訂單達 1.51 億美元。
• 感測器（Sensors）部門營收年增 21% 至 3,840 萬美元。受 AI 相關基礎設施以及航太與國防應用推動，新接訂單金額連續兩個季度創下新高，達 5,170 萬美元。
• 調整後毛利率較上一季改善至 39.3%，調整後 EBITDA 增加至 820 萬美元，調整後自由現金流回升至 550 萬美元。
• 管理層預測 2026 財年第四季營收為 8,400 萬至 9,100 萬美元，並表示隨著產能擴充，2027 財年第一季營收有望達到 9,000 萬美元或更高。
• 基於訂單動能與在手訂單，管理層看好 2027 財年營收有成長 10% 至 12% 的潛力。然而，這仍取決於產能執行狀況、客戶拉貨時程及終端市場狀況。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

感測器

感測器是 VPG 的主要成長動力。營收季增 15%、年增 21% 至 3,840 萬美元。新接訂單較第二季成長 8% 至創紀錄的 5,170 萬美元，接單出貨比達 1.35。

需求主要來自用於半導體前段、後段及製程控制設備的精密電阻，以及用於高速光纖傳輸基礎設施的產品。航空電子與國防需求在現有及下一代專案中亦保持穩健。

管理層估計 AI 相關需求約佔感測器部門的 20% 至 30%。該估算包含半導體、光纖資料基礎設施以及潛在的人形機器人應用。

人形機器人新接訂單金額約為 20 萬美元，營收為 30 萬美元。由於供應鏈擴展挑戰，首批客戶將量產開展時間延後至第四季。VPG 預計訂單將在第四季逐步增加，並在 2027 年加速成長，但同時強調客戶的具體時程仍具不確定性。

稱重解決方案

調整後營收為 2,690 萬美元，季減 11%，年減 2%。季減主要反映歐洲市場的季節性疲軟，特別是在製程稱重產品方面。

調整後訂單為 2,860 萬美元，接單出貨比為 1.06。工業稱重及醫療需求大致穩定。第二季大幅下單後的電動自行車（e-bike）訂單減少，被更強勁的運輸需求所抵銷。

量測系統

受惠於針對鋼鐵市場的 DSI 熱機械模擬系統銷售增加，營收季增 10%，年增 8%。KELK 的生產持續復甦。

新接訂單季增 19% 至約 2,220 萬美元，其中鋼鐵相關訂單大幅成長 40%。用於汽車碰撞安全測試的 DTS 訂單達到 2026 財年最高水準，而航太與國防訂單亦保持強勁。

VPG 在 2026 財年前九個月節省了 420 萬美元的成本，並維持全年達成約 600 萬美元節約目標的進度。這些措施屬於三年計畫的一部分，旨在透過製造最佳化、自動化與採購效率達成約 2,000 萬美元的成本節省。

管理層財務預測

在假設 2026 財年第三季匯率不變的前提下，VPG 預計 2026 財年第四季淨營收為 8,400 萬至 9,100 萬美元。該預測未包含預期給予客戶的關稅退款，管理層稱該退款對獲利呈中性影響。

第四季預測區間反映了預定的在手訂單出貨、工作天數少於第三季，以及人形機器人客戶拉貨時程的不確定性。公司繼續招聘與培訓製造人員並增設設備，特別是在感測器部門。

管理層表示，計畫中的產能擴充可支持 2027 財年第一季營收達到 9,000 萬美元或更高。受惠於 1.51 億美元的在手訂單、持續的 AI 相關需求、航太與國防業務，以及工業市場復甦的早期跡象，管理層亦看好 2027 財年營收有成長 10% 至 12% 的潛力。

VPG 預計 2026 全年營運有效稅率約為 45%，資本支出為 1,400 萬至 1,600 萬美元。

風險與關注焦點

• 不利的匯率變動導致第三季調整後營業利益同比減少 340 萬美元，今年以來營業利益減少 810 萬美元。
• 受獲利區域結構改變影響，第三季調整後稅率自上半年的 37% 升至 48%，使調整後每股盈餘減少約 0.03 美元。
• 由於客戶正擴展複雜的供應鏈，人形機器人的量產時程仍具波動性。
• 感測器部門的產能擴充足需引進新設備、新增製造據點、招聘及員工培訓。管理層表示，產品學習曲線意味著產能與交期改善需要時間。
• 第四季工作天數少於第三季，對出貨量構成額外限制。

分析師問答集錦

管理層確認第三季業務拓展訂單金額約為 1,200 萬美元，前九個月累計達 3,350 萬美元。VPG 仍有望達成全年 4,500 萬美元的目標。

在被問及 2027 財年展望時，管理層提到了季末高達 1.51 億美元的在手訂單、預期第四季接單運轉率將與第三季相當、持續的 AI 相關需求、強勁的航太與國防業務，以及工業復甦的跡象。

關於產能，VPG 表示正在採購設備、招聘員工，並在更多製造據點擴充產能。管理層預期這些舉措將在未來一季提高產量並縮短交期。

公司亦確認，先前遞延的部分 KELK 訂單已於第三季完成交付，其餘大部分預計將在第四季交付。

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to the VPG Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Steve Cantor, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Steve Cantor

Great. Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to VPG's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our press release and slides are available on our website, vpgsensors.com. An audio recording of today's call will also be available on our website. On the call today, we will be -- today's remarks are governed by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Actual results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements, and there could be no assurance that the results discussed today, including the targets in our operating model, will be achieved. For a discussion of the risks associated with VPG's operations, please refer to our SEC filings, particularly our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and our other recent SEC filings.

We also present certain GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and on this call, and we believe these measures provide useful information about the operating performance of our business and should be considered together with the corresponding GAAP measures. Before beginning the call, I want to note that we received $2.3 million in tariff refunds from the U.S. federal government, and we intend to pass those refunds on to our customers. GAAP net revenue for the third quarter was $85.1 million. Third quarter adjusted net revenue was $87.4 million, excluding $2.3 million of refunds that had no impact on gross profit.

Under GAAP, these refunds are reflected as reductions to revenue and cost of products sold. Unless otherwise noted, all third quarter financial measures discussed today exclude these refunds, including adjusted gross margin. The refunds have no impact on prior periods. Joining me on the call today are Ziv Shoshani, President and CEO; and Bill Clancy, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Ziv for his prepared remarks. You can read off the quarterly presentation. Ziv?

Ziv Shoshani

Thank you, Steve. I will begin with commentary on the third quarter. Bill will then review our financial results and provide our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026. Moving to Slide 4, third quarter highlights, booking and sales. Our third quarter reflected continued strong demand, improving revenues and margins and ongoing progress in our strategic initiatives. Adjusted revenue was $87.4 million, our highest quarterly level in 3 years, increasing 4% sequentially and 10% year-over-year.

Adjusted orders of $103 million were driven by continued record demand in our Sensors segment from AI-related markets, including semiconductor equipment, data center infrastructure as well as aerospace and defense applications. Bookings from our business development initiatives totaled $11.9 million in the third quarter and $33.5 million year-to-date, keeping us on track to achieve our $45 million full year goal.

Our consolidated book-to-bill ratio was 1.17, marking the eighth consecutive quarter at or above 1.0 and underscoring continued positive demand trends, led by the Sensors book-to-bill ratio of 1.35, all 3 segments achieved ratios above 1.0. This sustained order momentum is driving a growing backlog and increasing our visibility into 2027.

We continue to add manufacturing capacity and personnel to support our growth, particularly in Sensors. Our order momentum in key markets and our growing backlog set the stage for potential revenue growth of 10% to 12% in 2027, which is above the annual target rate in our 3-year plan. Adjusted gross margin improved to 39.3% from 38.6% in the second quarter. Third quarter cash from operations was $11.1 million and free cash flow was $5.5 million.

Adjusted EPS of $0.14 reflected an adjusted 48% tax rate compared to the 37% through the first half of 2026, driven by a shift in the geographic mix of income. The higher tax rate reduced adjusted EPS by approximately $0.03 per diluted share. Regarding our operational improvement initiatives, we delivered nearly $4.2 million of cost savings year-to-date and remain on track to achieve approximately $6 million of savings this year.

These actions represent the first phase of our 3-year plan to deliver approximately $20 million of cost reduction initiatives through manufacturing footprint optimization, increased automation and procurement efficiencies across our global supply chain. I'll now review performance by segment.

Moving to Slide 5. Sensors third quarter highlights. Beginning with our Sensors segment, third quarter revenue of $38.4 million grew 15% from the second quarter and 21% from a year ago. The increase from the second quarter primarily reflected higher sales to the test and measurement market. Bookings of $51.7 million remained robust, increasing 8% sequentially to a second consecutive all-time quarterly record. This resulted in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.35.

Demand continued to be driven by investments in AI-related infrastructure. We recorded strong orders for precision resistors sold to semiconductor front-end, back-end and process control equipment manufacturers. Bookings for manufacturers of high-speed fiber optic transmission equipment remained elevated, supporting the continued build-out of data center infrastructure. We saw continued positive trends in avionics and defense applications with sustained demand from both established and next-generation defense programs.

Turning to humanoid robotics. We remain highly optimistic about the long-term opportunity. While the market is still in its early stages, the engineering complexity, demanding performance requirement and the need to scale sophisticated supply chain create an attractive opportunity for VPG. Humanoid-related bookings were approximately $200,000 and sales were $300,000 in the third quarter as our initial customer shifted the start of its production ramp to Q4, citing the challenges of scaling a highly complex supply chain -- we are prepared to support customer planned production volume and now expect orders to increase gradually beginning in the current quarter, with volume accelerating further through 2027.

We also received an investment from this customer to support our capacity expansion related to humanoid, which we view as a solid endorsement of our value proposition and their commitment to VPG as a supplier. Regarding customer #2, discussions continue to progress well and the potential revenue opportunity could be larger than we previously anticipated. We are also supporting several other humanoid robotics customers as they advance from prototype development to commercialization, while expanding our engagement with the additional prospective customers across the market.

Moving to Slide 6, Weighing Solutions third quarter highlights. Turning to our Weighing Solutions segment. Third quarter adjusted revenue of $26.9 million, which excludes $2.3 million of tariff refunds to customers, declined 11% from the second quarter and were down 2% from a year ago. The sequential decline reflected seasonal softness in Europe, mainly for process weighing products.

Adjusted orders of $28.6 million were flat with the second quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.06. Trends in the industrial weighing market and the medical market were mostly stable. Bookings declined from -- for consumer e-bike applications following a large semiannual order in the second quarter, which was offset by a higher demand in the transportation market.

I am pleased to note that our products are now standard options for onboard weighing on off-highway heavy use trucks for a leading European manufacturers designed to improve efficiency and safety. These solutions are integrated into the vehicle to measure payload during the loading and operations in a harsh environment such as mining and construction.

Moving to Slide 7. Measurement Systems third quarter highlights. Turning to Measurement Systems. Third quarter revenue increased 10% sequentially and 8% year-over-year. The sequential increase was driven by higher sales of DSI's thermal mechanical simulation test systems for the steel market. KELK production continued to recover from the second quarter. Because these products operate in a demanding environment and play a mission-critical role in optimization yields and productivity for steel products, we continue to focus on execution, product quality and customer service.

Orders of approximately $22.2 million increased 19% sequentially, which reflected a 40% increase in steel-related orders. We also had another strong quarter of DTS as bookings related to automotive crash safety testing reached their highest level of 2026 and orders for aerospace and defense applications remain strong.

Moving to Slide 8, priorities and focus. Our key priorities remain centered on 2 areas: accelerating commercialization and growth and driving operational execution and excellence. On the commercial side, we completed the first phase of our company-wide CRM rollout for the Sensors segment, with deployment across the remaining business planned for the fourth quarter and 2027. We rolled out a system and processes for lead management and opportunity management for Sensors.

And we have initiated targeted marketing programs in the humanoid robotics market. We also refreshed our corporate website and started the first phase of our plan to accelerate and streamline the new product development processes. Operationally, we achieved $4.2 million of our targeted $6 million in cost savings for 2026. We continue to optimize and relocate manufacturing for key products to support our long-term cost and productivity objectives.

At the same time, we are expanding production capacity through adding personnel and equipment at key Sensors facilities. Importantly, our manufacturing and supply chain capabilities are in place to support the initial production ramp for humanoid robotics customers. As we look ahead, given the strong order trends, growing backlog, continued execution on our growth strategies, we see potential to achieve revenue in the first quarter of 2027 of $90 million or better. This supports our potential to grow our revenues 10% to 12% in 2027, which is above the targeted annual growth rate in our original 3-year plan.

I will now turn it over to Bill Clancy. Bill?

William Clancy

Thank you, Ziv. Referring to Slide 9 and the reconciliation tables in the slide deck, third quarter 2026 GAAP net revenues was $85.1 million after $2.3 million of tariff refunds passed through to customers with no impact on gross margin. Excluding these refunds, adjusted revenue was $87.4 million. Adjusted gross margin improved sequentially to 39.3% from 38.6% in the second quarter, excluding $141,000 of start-up costs related to expanded production capacity. This was an improvement from 38.6% in the second quarter.

Sequentially by segment, Sensors adjusted gross margin increased to 32.6%, primarily due to higher volume, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs. Weighing Solutions adjusted gross margin of 34.6% declined mainly due to lower volume. Measurement Systems gross margin increased to 56.5%, primarily reflecting higher volume and a favorable product mix.

Moving to Slide 10. Our third quarter operating margin was 3.2%. Excluding the aforementioned start-up costs as well as restructuring, stock-based compensation and severance costs, adjusted operating margin was 4.9%. Selling, general and administrative expense for the third quarter was $31.2 million or 35.7% of revenue, down from second quarter levels due to lower sales commissions and reduced incentive compensation accruals.

Foreign exchange rates continued to represent a significant headwind to profitability. Unfavorable exchange rates reduced third quarter adjusted operating profit by $3.4 million compared with the prior year period. Year-to-date, unfavorable foreign exchange has reduced operating profit by $8.1 million. GAAP net earnings were $559,000 or $0.04 per diluted share. Adjusted net earnings were $1.8 million or $0.14 per diluted share. As Ziv noted earlier, the GAAP tax rate for the third quarter of 2026 was significantly higher than the run rate through the first half of the year. For full year 2026, we are assuming an operational tax rate of approximately 45%.

Moving to Slide 11. We also made meaningful sequential progress in EBITDA and cash flow. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $8.2 million or 9.4% of revenue from $5.2 million or 6.5% of revenue in the second quarter. Capital expenditures were $5.6 million in the third quarter and $10.6 million for the first 9 months of 2026. For full year 2026, we expect CapEx of approximately $14 million to $16 million.

We improved receivable collections during the quarter, which drove adjusted free cash flow to $5.5 million, a $6.9 million sequential improvement from negative $1.4 million in the second quarter. At the end of the third quarter, cash was $80.9 million and long-term debt was $15.7 million, resulting in net cash of approximately $65 million. Regarding the outlook, for the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect net revenues of $84 million to $91 million, assuming constant third quarter 2026 exchange rates.

Our guidance excludes expected fourth quarter tariff refunds to customers, which are profit neutral. In summary, order momentum remains strong, led by record demand in Sensors and continued strength in AI-related markets. Our financial performance is improving with sequential gains in adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow while we continue to execute our cost reduction initiatives. And our growing backlog, expanding capacity and commercial execution gives us increased visibility into 2027, supporting our view that revenue growth can exceed the annual target in our 3-year plan.

With that, we will open the call for questions. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Jaeson Schmidt at Lake Street Capital.

分析師問答

Jaeson Schmidt

Just curious if you could disclose what new business development revenue was in Q3? And I guess relatedly, are you still on track to hit that $45 million goal for the year?

Ziv Shoshani

Yes. So yes, we did report a BD for Q3, the BD contribution is $12 million in orders. And for the first 9 months, it's $33.5 million, and we are on track to hit our $45 million target for 2026.

Jaeson Schmidt

Okay. Perfect. And then looking at 2027, obviously, you guys feel pretty confident on next year. Just curious if you could rank order the growth drivers that are giving you the confidence in the '27 outlook.

Ziv Shoshani

So as we look into 2027, first, we see a very solid backlog. For the end of this quarter, we are running at a backlog of $151 million. The expectation is that the order run rate for Q4 will be similar to the third quarter, given the business environment. We do see a continuation in -- from a demand standpoint from our end markets regarding AI-related infrastructure and applications as well as AMS. We do see also some signs in the industrial market in terms of recovery. Therefore, we are optimistic regarding our projection for 2027, which we expect to be 10% to 12% higher revenues in respect to 2026.

Operator

We'll move next to Josh Nichols at B. Riley Securities.

Josh Nichols

Just curious, like looking -- the backlog, the order activity has been exceptionally strong. You're assuming 4Q is kind of similar to 3Q and then there's a nice ramp assumed in 1Q and beyond. What's the right way to think about that wider revenue range that you're giving for 4Q? And what are kind of the puts and takes that would get you potentially to the higher end of that range? Is it order timing on things like humanoids or other parts of the core business like Sensors?

Ziv Shoshani

So if we are looking at the Q4 revenues, our Q4 outlook reflects really our aged backlog and the timing expected to be shipped in Q4, but it also takes into account the number of working days in Q4, which is less than Q3. We are also looking at -- we do continue to hire and train additional manufacturing personnel to increase our manufacturing production, mainly in the Sensors segment.

So all in all, the Q4 revenue projection is based on the backlog, number of working days, while also we increased the output per day. Based on our projected capacity increase, we do believe that we will be able to reach the $90 million or higher in Q1 in respect to revenues. And I'm sorry, what was your other question?

Josh Nichols

I was just curious because the range for 4Q was also a bit wider than you normally give. Normally, it's around $5 million.

Ziv Shoshani

We did give larger ranges in the past. I didn't thought this is a higher range than in the past. I would say that, as you said, there is a certain volatility regarding the humanoid business given the fact that the expected -- the supply chain is more complicated from our customer's standpoint, the supply chain is more complicated than expected. But this is part of the -- you can call it, of the buffer volatility that we also account in our range.

Josh Nichols

Got it. That makes sense. And then last question for me. I mean, the sensors momentum has been exceptionally strong, another quarter, record bookings north of $51 million. I'm just curious how you're thinking about -- given the influx of orders about your capacity lead times and the ability of the company to really convert that backlog into revenue in a timely manner.

Ziv Shoshani

So naturally, given the sizable order intake, we had to place order to increase capacity equipment as well as hiring more people. In addition to that, we are setting, I would say, more manufacturing site (sic) [ sites ] to support more manufacturing site (sic) [ sites ] to support the higher capacity. So it takes time given the learning curve and the complexity of the product that we are producing. But the expectation is that in the -- I would say that in the coming quarter, we are going to reduce the lead time and increase our capacity as we expand also in our other manufacturing facility.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

We'll move next to John Franzreb at Sidoti.

John Franzreb

Ziv, I'm kind of curious, given how much AI infrastructure markets are driving demand, do you have a sense of how much that is of the revenue and/or booking profile?

Ziv Shoshani

We didn't provide any specific information regarding the Sensor segment. We can -- we did identify that all the -- our semiconductor business, all our fiber optics data and potentially also our humanoid business, they are all AI related. I think that at this point in time, I could estimate that -- and by the way, in addition to that, I would like to state that we have also a very solid demand avionics, military and space business. But if we speak about specifically about the AI, I would say that at this point in time, a rough estimation would be around 20% to 30%.

John Franzreb

20% to 30% of the Sensors segment or company-wide?

Ziv Shoshani

No, no, no. Of the Sensors segment.

John Franzreb

And in the second quarter, there was a KELK order that was deferred at the time we say in the second half of the year. Was that order fulfilled in the third quarter? Or is there still some remaining that's going into the fourth?

Ziv Shoshani

So you are correct. Some of the order has been fulfilled, but the main part will be delivered in Q4 this quarter.

John Franzreb

That's good to hear. And one, I guess, last question. How are the -- just a point of clarity for me, how are the bookings impacted by the tariff refunds? I understand how the revenue works, but it looks like there's a footnote in the presentation about bookings.

William Clancy

Yes, John. So the way we do our calculation, it's always the opening backlog and then plus order less -- I mean -- so basically, we back into the order numbers just because the backlog is fixed. So it's just a mathematical calculation.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And we have no further questions. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve for closing remarks.

Steve Cantor

Before concluding, I want to note that we will be participating in the ROTH Conference this month and the Sidoti Conference in December, and you can contact me for more information about those. We look forward to updating you next quarter. Thank you all, and have a great day.

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.