Predict.fun pledges full refunds after $400K drain, days before PREDICT’s launch

Predict.fun has said that it will reimburse every affected user in the recent breach that saw approximately 400,000 USDT pulled from a small group of wallets.

The breach was traced to a third-party site that hosts the platform’s developer documentation.

The incident is coming just a few days after traders started betting on when the BNB Chain prediction market will finally ship its governance token.

What did Predict.fun say went wrong?

In a statement posted to X on Tuesday, October 27, the company said, “We are aware of a small number of users who have experienced unauthorized transfers of funds from their wallets, totaling approximately 400,000 USDT.”

Its early read of the incident puts the blame on an externally hosted API documentation site, though the post did not spell out how an attacker turned that into access to funds.

It said that it has taken down the documentation site as a precaution, adding that the site will remain offline until it concludes its investigation.

“We will fully reimburse all affected users for any funds lost as a direct result of this incident,” Predict.fun said in the statement.

The company also committed to a full post-mortem once it finishes digging into the cause.

Onchain sleuths trace the money to Tornado Cash

Before Predict.fun acknowledged the breach on X, independent trackers and onchain analysts had spotted the movements and called it out.

One of them is onchain analyst Naeven, who wrote on X that multiple accounts on Predict.fun were being drained.

Naeven wrote that the proceeds were being bridged to Ethereum and then routed through Tornado Cash.

Naeven counted 19 victims drained of roughly 105 ETH, worth about $260,000 at the time, adding that there are likely more victims.

Based on Predict.fun’s statement, Naeven seems correct, as the prediction market platform reported that approximately $400,000 had been lost in the breach.

A compromised supplier, again

Per Predict.fun’s own account of its preliminary investigation, a third-party provider is at the root of the wallet drain. This is similar to what Polymarket said about a December 2025 breach.

Then Polymarket said the exploit came as a result of a “vulnerability introduced by a third-party authentication provider.” It declined to name it or disclose the amount stolen.

There has been a recent uptick in the attacks that target prediction markets. In June, at least 11 Polymarket users lost around $3 million in a suspected phishing campaign. The month before that, $520,000 was drained from a Polymarket contract on Polygon.

Hacks across crypto have also been on the rise, with security firm Hacken reporting that crypto hacks hit $1.18 billion across 107 incidents in the third quarter of 2026.

Hacken reported that about 77% of these losses were due to compromised suppliers, supplier tools, and infrastructure that were outside security audits, like third-party platforms.

Days before the token

A few days before the exploit, it was reported that a Polymarket contract was opened on whether Predict.fun will launch a governance token before October 31.

As of Monday, October 26, that contract was at 22%, up 10 points in a day, while a separate market gave a launch before November 30 a 97% chance. A “Yes” requires a live, tradable token, not just an announcement.

DefiLlama data shows Predict.fun holds about $10.4 million in total value locked and ranks third among prediction markets it tracks. The prediction market has seen around $397.3 million in DEX volume over the trailing 30 days. 

The platform launched in December 2025, drew a follow-on investment from CZ-backed YZi Labs and Susquehanna Crypto in April, and gained in-app access through Binance Wallet the same month.

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