WaterBridge (WBI) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：创纪录业绩及上调业绩指引

核心要点

• 2026年第三季度，得益于新客户引入、现有客户业务增长以及Speedway一期项目放量，WaterBridge采出水日处理量达到创纪录的280万桶，环比增长6%。
• 营收达到创纪录的2.402亿美元，环比第二季度增长10%；调整后EBITDA环比增长7%，达到创纪录的1.242亿美元。调整后EBITDA利润率约为52%。
• 不计回收原油，采出水单桶处理收入同比增长7%至0.77美元，主要受合同费率改善以及压力受限区域短期可中断服务费率上涨带动。
• 管理层连续第三个季度上调2026年处理量及调整后EBITDA指引。调整后EBITDA区间由此前的4.35亿至4.75亿美元上调至4.65亿至4.85亿美元。
• Speedway一期项目的产能利用率超出管理层预期。新签署的客户协议所需新增资本有限，预计将支撑2027年及以后的增长。
• WaterBridge宣布派发每股0.05美元的季度股息，将于12月10日向截至11月25日登记在册的股东派发。

核心财务数据

业务与运营表现

Speedway一期项目于7月开始输送采出水，并在本季度持续放量。管理层表示，产能利用率超出预期，尤其是该系统的西部区域。此外，WaterBridge还签署了多项所需新增资本极少的油气勘探开采客户协议，提升了现有基础设施的预期回报率。

公司正在继续评估Speedway二期项目。管理层预计该项目有望在近期实现商业化，但打算根据明确的客户承诺和一期项目充足的产能利用率来敲定最终投资决策。目前工程设计与规划工作仍在持续推进中。

WaterBridge将单桶收入走强归因于Speedway等管道更高的长期费率，以及包括Stateline在内的孔隙压力承压区域可中断服务费率的提高。同时，公司在大运量设施中使用成本更低的燃料，并在可行的情况下利用Speedway的业务布局降低新墨西哥州现有基础设施的运营成本。

Ranger资产已整合至Speedway系统中。管理层表示，此次整合提高了系统可靠性，并使Ranger相关处理量得以扩大规模，而无需在新墨西哥州投资建设深层处置井。

WaterBridge还在积极开拓面向数字基础设施的非饮用水供应机遇。PowerBridge位于里夫斯县LandBridge地块上的Alpha数字园区预计将由WaterBridge负责冷却水的取水、处理和输送，并管理采出水及排放水。管理层还透露，另一项针对大型数据中心的独立供水解决方案已取得商业化进展。

管理层业绩指引

管理层表示，上调处理量及调整后EBITDA预期反映了业务规模和利润率的出色表现。资本支出区间收窄主要反映了部分现金支付时间从2026年末推迟至2027年初，而非项目进度发生实质性变动。

WaterBridge依然致力于实现低于3倍的长期杠杆率目标。公司表示，其2027年业务前景较IPO时期更为强劲，主要归功于现有基础设施的内生增长以及近期商业突破所支撑的新项目。公司预计将在公布第四季度业绩时提供正式的2027年业绩指引。

风险与关注事项

• 采出水产生量超出可回收及再利用规模，而特拉华盆地活跃作业区孔隙压力的上升限制了回注处置能力。
• Speedway二期项目的推进时机取决于明确的客户承诺和一期利用率。勘探开采行业的整合以及客户预算周期推迟了部分长期承诺的达成。
• 处理采出水比处理微咸水更为复杂，且面临额外的监管考量。
• 管理层正在密切关注油气生产商情绪、许可证审批、大宗商品价格以及其他可能影响作业方活跃度的指标。
• WaterBridge背负18亿美元债务，季度末契约净杠杆率为3.5倍，高于低于3倍的长期目标。

分析师问答要点

Speedway资本效率：管理层表示，现有基础设施使WaterBridge能够以有限的新增支出承接新增处理量。管网内规模较小的商业项目合计产生的现金流可媲美Speedway二期等较大型项目，且潜在回报率可能更高。

数据中心用水需求：管理层表示，客户完全接受使用经处理的非饮用微咸水。涉及经处理采出水的项目因处理工艺及监管复杂性而需要更长的开发周期，但公司认为其在中期内具有用于冷却应用的潜力。

许可证审批与监管：WaterBridge预计德克萨斯州对采出水的监管政策不会发生剧烈变动。管理层强调了其广泛的业务布局、设施间距、内部地震学专业能力，以及不在德克萨斯州运营深层处置井的决策。管理层还补充称，更严格的标准可能会促使更多处理量流向资金雄厚的运营商。

特拉华盆地水处理量增长：管理层表示，随着含水率上升，新墨西哥州的采出水增长速度已超过原油产量增速。管理层认为这一趋势支撑了从新墨西哥州输往德克萨斯州的长途外输需求，并指出水资源循环利用无法完全消化预期的增量。

资本结构：8月，WaterBridge将循环信贷承诺额度从5亿美元上调至7.5亿美元，并将适用利率加点下调25个基点。公司还增发了1.5亿美元于2033年到期、票面利率为6.5%的高级无担保票据，使未偿本金总额增至7.5亿美元。募集资金用于偿还循环信贷借款，公司在2030年之前无重大到期债务。

业绩电话会完整纪要

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the WaterBridge's Third Quarter 2026 Results. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Mae Herrington, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Mae Herrington

Good morning, and thank you for joining WaterBridge's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. I'm joined today by our Chief Executive Officer, Jason Long; our Chief Operating Officer, Michael Chop Reitz; and our Chief Financial Officer, Scott McNeely. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that in this call and the related presentation, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our current beliefs, plans and expectations, which are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from results and events contemplated by such forward-looking statements.

You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Please refer to the risk factors and other cautionary statements included in our filings with the SEC. I would also like to point out that our investor presentation and today's conference call will contain discussions of non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are useful in evaluating our performance.

These supplemental measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release and the appendix of today's accompanying presentation. I'll now turn the call over to our CEO, Jason Long.

Jason Long

Thanks, Mae, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report another great quarter. We delivered record produced water volumes of 2.8 million barrels per day, along with record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, outperforming on both volumes and margin. I'd like to spend a few minutes on why we expect this performance to continue.

First, the Delaware Basin has some of the best upstream economics in North America, and today's commodity price environment amplifies that advantage. Our customers are responding with higher activity and nowhere is that more visible than along the Stateline and in New Mexico, where water volumes are growing quickly.

Second, that growth is creating a larger water challenge. Produced water volumes in the basin far exceed what can be recycled and reused in completions, and the gap widens as activity accelerates. At the same time, disposal capacity in the most active parts of the basin is constrained by elevated pore pressure.

As a result, the barrels that can't be recycled need a reliable long-term solution. Third, that is exactly where WaterBridge is differentiated. Our large integrated network lets us move water out of pore pressure-constrained areas like the Stateline in New Mexico to areas of low pore pressure where disposal capacity is reliable.

For our current and future customers, that means they can develop their assets with confidence, knowing their water will move every day for years to come. It's why we have seen meaningful outperformance in Speedway Phase I. And as we continue commercial discussions on Speedway Phase II, we are confident in the long-term value proposition of our out-of-basin infrastructure and pore space solutions.

Fourth, water is a resource in West Texas, an opportunity that is becoming more valuable, not less. Communities across Texas are rightly asking how large industrial projects, particularly data centers, will affect their water supply. In West Texas, we believe the answer can be, they don't have to.

The region holds vast volumes of brackish and produced water that can be treated and put to productive use. So industrial growth doesn't compete with the water that families, farms and municipalities rely on. Few companies can source, treat and deliver that water at scale. WaterBridge can through our integrated network, our operating expertise and our access to surface and pore space in the right locations.

Our relationship with LandBridge is central to that advantage. LandBridge's more than 350,000 surface acres in the Delaware Basin provide the land to site treatment and delivery infrastructure the pore space to responsibly manage what remains and the ability to locate industrial development right next to the water resources needed to support it.

Together, we can offer industrial customers complete water solution that doesn't draw on community supplies. That opportunity is moving quickly. We've made significant commercial progress on a water supply solution for a large-scale data center, and we look forward to sharing more when appropriate.

In addition, PowerBridge recently broke ground on its Alpha Digital Campus on LandBridge acreage in Reeves County, where it is committed to using no municipal or community water for industrial purposes. PowerBridge expects WaterBridge to source, treat and deliver the non-potable water for the campus's cooling system and to manage produced and discharged water from the site.

We believe this is the model for responsible industrial growth in West Texas, and we're well positioned to lead it. These drivers give us confidence in the growth trajectory of the business, and I'm pleased to share that we are raising our full year volume and adjusted EBITDA guidance for the third quarter in a row.

We are also lowering the midpoint of our capital expenditures guidance as the timing of certain project spend shifts into 2027. Scott will provide further details in his remarks. WaterBridge's record quarter reflects the value of the organic and inorganic growth initiatives we have pursued in the year since our IPO. The results we're seeing today reinforce our view of the long-term growth potential of the platform and our ability to create compelling value for customers and shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Chop Reitz.

Michael Reitz

Thank you, Jason. Operations were strong across the platform in the third quarter. We handled a record 2.8 million barrels of produced water per day. That's up 6% from last quarter. The growth came from both new customers and existing ones, and our expanding network is meeting that demand.

Just as important, margins held up. Produced water handling revenue was $0.77 per barrel, excluding skim oil. That's up 7% from $0.72 a year ago, and it's growing faster than our operating costs. Two things are driving that improvement. First, contract rates continue to improve.

Long-haul pipelines like Speedway carry higher long-term rates and in pressure-stressed areas like the Stateline, demand is lifting our short-term interruptible rates. Second, we're keeping a tight grip on operating costs as we scale.

We're switching to more cost-effective fuel at our busiest facilities. And although our large diameter Speedway pipeline generally carries higher OpEx, we're leveraging the Speedway pipeline's footprint to lower costs on our existing New Mexico infrastructure where possible.

Now Speedway Phase I. We started moving volumes in July and the ramp is continuing. Demand for capacity is strong. Utilization is beating our expectations. On the western portion of the system, throughput is performing well above what we expected.

We've also signed several new agreements with E&P customers onto the Speedway pipeline. These volumes need very little additional capital, so they bring attractive returns. They'll lift returns on Phase I, and they support our growth outlook into 2027 and beyond.

On Phase II, demand for long-haul out-of-basin capacity keeps growing. We expect to commercialize the project in the near term. Phase I's strong performance lets us set the timing for Phase II on our terms. We'll line it up with firm customer commitments and Phase I utilization, so we're maximizing returns across the system as a whole. Meanwhile, engineering and planning continues so we can move quickly once those commercial milestones are met. With that, I'll hand it over to Scott to walk through the financials.

Scott McNeely

Thank you, Chop, and good morning to everyone joining today. We reported strong third quarter results with record produced water handling volumes, revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Based on the volume and margin outperformance that Jason and Chop described, we are raising the midpoints of our full year 2026 produced water handling volume and adjusted EBITDA guidance by 2% and 4%, respectively.

We now expect full year volumes of 2.65 million to 2.75 million barrels per day compared to our prior range of 2.55 million to 2.75 million barrels per day and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $465 million to $485 million compared to our prior range of $435 million to $475 million.

We are also narrowing our capital expenditures guidance to a range of $530 million to $560 million from $530 million to $590 million previously, which lowers the midpoint by 3%. This reflects the shift of capital outlay for certain projects from 2026 into 2027.

Turning to the quarter. We delivered record revenue of $240.2 million, a 10% sequential increase. Revenue growth was primarily driven by higher produced water handling volumes, including the continued ramp of Speedway Phase I and higher rates on contracts that became operational during the quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA was $124.2 million, a 7% sequential increase. Adjusted EBITDA margin was approximately 52% within the range of 50% to 53% that we have delivered over the last 4 quarters. Capital expenditures were $123.9 million during the quarter. Spending was primarily driven by the construction costs from the first phase of Speedway and continued investments across our Delaware Basin infrastructure footprint.

We ended the quarter with total liquidity of $539.7 million, including $34.7 million of cash and approximately $505 million of available borrowing capacity under our revolving credit facility. Total debt was $1.8 billion, and our covenant net leverage ratio was 3.5x. We remain committed to our long-term leverage target of sub 3x.

During the quarter, we also strengthened our liquidity and extended our financial flexibility. In August, we amended our revolving credit facility, increasing commitments from $500 million to $750 million and reducing applicable margins by 25 basis points across the pricing grid.

Also in August, we issued an additional $150 million of our 6.5% senior unsecured notes due 2033 under the existing indenture, bringing the total outstanding principal amount of those notes to $750 million. We used the proceeds to repay borrowings under our revolving credit facility. With no significant maturities before 2030, we are well positioned to continue funding high-return capital projects.

We remain disciplined in how we allocate capital, guided by 3 priorities: First, driving organic growth across our infrastructure network alongside accretive acquisitions such as Ranger and NDB Landfill. Every project we pursue is held to the same criteria, which include long-term contracts, creditworthy counterparties, fixed fees with CPI escalators, build multiples below 5x and the ability to fund them while maintaining the strength of our balance sheet.

Second, maintaining a conservative balance sheet and prudent capital structure that maximizes financial flexibility and contributes to our long-term leverage target. And third, opportunistically returning capital to our shareholders. Today, we announced a dividend of $0.05 per share payable on December 10 to shareholders of record as of November 25.

To close, our results this quarter reflect a growing business with strong operations, a disciplined approach to capital and a balance sheet built to support growth. Record volumes, a third consecutive raise to our volume and adjusted EBITDA guidance and upsized revolver and our dividend all point to the same thing, durable, high-return growth. And we're carrying that momentum into 2027.

Our outlook for the next year is meaningfully stronger than when we went public, driven primarily by organic growth on infrastructure that we already have in the ground today as well as new infrastructure underpinned by recent commercial wins.

We are in a position of strength, which lets us be judicious in deploying capital for M&A and large commercial projects, given the attractive growth that's already underway. We look forward to sharing our 2027 guidance with our fourth quarter results. We're confident in the path ahead and our ability to keep creating value for our shareholders. Thank you for joining us today. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

分析师问答

John Mackay

Maybe we'll start on the commercial side. You mentioned success on kind of winning new agreements for Speedway Phase I. It looks like you're being a little more capital efficient around the timing for Speedway Phase II. Maybe just catch us up on kind of what commercial momentum has looked like? What you're hearing from your producer customers in terms of their specific willingness to sign incremental blocks of water.

Scott McNeely

John, no, I think a very topical question. I mean I think I kind of boil it down into 3 main considerations here. I mean, first, because we have so much existing infrastructure in place, we can really kind of capture the growth, capture these commercial wins in just a very capital-efficient way.

Speedway Phase I is a great example of that. It's meaningfully outperforming our expectations today, and it still has open capacity that we can utilize over the next several years. And you kind of alluded to the fact that we've signed several new agreements that really require very little incremental capital because we can capitalize on that existing infrastructure.

And those barrels carry just very high kind of attractive returns. And so being thoughtful about when to put new capital on the ground, I think, just is always top of mind because we want to be capital efficient as we work through these projects.

The second consideration I'd point to is really just on timing on the customer side. I mean, we've seen a really fantastic year as it relates to E&P consolidation just given the macro backdrop. And so as the dust has settled from that E&P consolidation and folks are working through their new budgeting cycles, many of the operators we're talking to just wanted to see those efforts get across the finish line before stepping into any long-term commitments at the scale we're talking about with Speedway Phase II.

We do think that comes here in the coming months, and those could very well support an FID on Phase II. But in this interim period, again, we've been able to capitalize that infrastructure on the ground. I mean -- and the third point, and I think this is a really important one to communicate is there have been a number of just other smaller commercial projects and wins and opportunities just across our system that oftentimes come at fantastic returns.

And they may be smaller and not quite as easy to talk to as a large project like Speedway Phase II. But in aggregate, they can easily add up to the same type of cash flow contribution, oftentimes at much better returns, but just without the fancy name like Speedway Phase II.

And so we're in a great spot where we can be patient. And ultimately, I think we're going to get Phase II FID here in the near term as some of those things come to fruition, but really focused on aligning that with when firm commitments are in place, when we think Phase I has been kind of properly utilized. And in the interim here, we'll just continue to push the engineering and planning efforts forward so we can pull the trigger and move quickly when the time is right.

John Mackay

That's great. And just second one for me. You guys talked a lot about the Alpha Digital opportunity on the LandBridge call as well. But maybe more high level, when you're thinking about some of these water opportunities with data center customers, I guess, are you still having kind of technical or, let's say, operational conversations with them? Or is that pretty buttoned up now in terms of their comfort in using this kind of water source and now really, it's mostly just around, let's call it, the commercial side?

Scott McNeely

Yes. No, thanks. I think there's an enormous amount of comfort at this point with using non-potable brackish water. The treatment efforts there aren't by any means new. So the confidence around the operational and the commercial viability, I don't think is really a question at this point. I think it's really just buttoning up some of the finer points and getting these to a point where we can announce them here in the near term.

Now when you think through treated produced water, there's obviously a little longer runway there, more involved in terms of the treatment that's required and a bit more complexity on the side of the regulators. But again, I would say there's a very high conviction ultimately on the operational and commercial viability of that. And I think there's a lot of excitement to transition to using treated produced water for cooling here in, call it, the medium term.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eli Jossen with JPMorgan Securities LLC.

Elias Jossen

I just wanted to start on the broader permitting landscape. Obviously, some changes across the RRC. And I want to just think about how you guys are strategically advantaged on permitting and whether you can expect any changes at the state level? And yes, broader color there would be great.

Scott McNeely

Eli, I appreciate the question. Yes, I mean, ultimately, we don't expect the election to drive any abrupt change on how produced water is regulated. I think it's more important to recognize as kind of you alluded to that our conservative approach actually positions us very well should any change arise. I mean just a few kind of key points to hit. I mean, first, if you're not familiar, the structure of Texas regulatory bodies is actually built for continuity and stability.

And so when you look at the RRC and you look at the TCEQ, there is a staggering and sequencing of kind of key personnel there, really designed to ensure on one single day, there isn't a hard pivot in terms of policy. And when you add in the time it takes to actually legislate and work through rulemaking, the framework just can't change overnight. But I think the second and third point, more important.

I mean, the second point, we have worked over time to develop incredibly strong lasting relationships with the RRC and the TCEQ as well as the other state agencies. We remain incredibly transparent and kind of constructive constant dialogue with them, and we don't see that changing as a result of the election in any way whatsoever.

And third, kind of most importantly here is really kind of how we operate. We've always been incredibly conservative on how we permit and how we site and how we build our infrastructure. I mean, by design, we spread our facilities out over a broad geographic footprint and maintain minimum spacing really designed to avoid any kind of concentrated pressure or other risks.

Further, we have in-house expertise as it relates to seismology, and we certainly outside experts before we develop anything. We've chosen not to operate any kind of deep disposal wells in Texas just as a further mitigant to risks.

And so when you think through any potential for the RRC tightening whatsoever, I would say we're in an incredibly strong spot. To the point where if you look at even last year when they did step out, at the RRC and tightened its permitting guidelines, we at WaterBridge spoke out publicly endorsing the change. This already largely reflects how we're operating.

So I mean, there maybe some other operators who may be toe the line a bit as you think through staying close to the regulatory limits, and they're going to be more exposed to even small changes in policies. But given we have so much kind of cushion there and given our engagement with the regulatory bodies, I think we're well positioned to ultimately navigate what's around the corner. And if anything, any tightening of standards should drive more volumes towards a more responsible, well-capitalized system like our own.

Elias Jossen

That's great. And then maybe just shifting back to the digital infrastructure landscape. I know it's early and you're still commercializing. But if we just think about returns compared to the super accretive returns on organic stuff that you do, how do they kind of seem to compare initially? And then would it make sense to kind of do something in the bolt-on world to advance your footprint in the digital infrastructure landscape?

Scott McNeely

Yes. No, good follow-up. On -- yes, I mean, on the water side, as it relates to digital infrastructure, I would say the return profile we're seeing in these projects are absolutely competitive with how we look at returns across the rest of our investment opportunities.

Ultimately, we're ensuring here that what we do on a risk-adjusted return basis remains competitive as we work through capital allocation. I think we've been able to hold to that. Now in terms of like do we see expanding to further bolster the opportunity set here, we're constantly looking at what makes sense.

We do think this kind of utility style water model is going to be a growing part of our business going forward. Alpha Digital is a great first step in validation of that. Like we mentioned in our prepared remarks, there is more exciting things around the corner.

But as we've said from the get-go, we've always viewed water in West Texas, whether it's non-potable brackish water or produced water as a resource. And we knew the time was going to come when that was proven to the market. And I think we're in a great position to really show that now. And so yes, whether it's M&A, whether it's greenfield development, I think we'll continue to grow that piece of our business, just given the financial upside we see there as well as just the runway we have in that particular industry.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Derrick Whitfield with Texas Capital.

Derrick Whitfield

I'll start bigger picture and spare you guys a 2027 specific-question. There's been a lot of focus from industry on several deeper intervals across the Delaware, and we're seeing that manifest in 15 Bcf per day of new gas long-haul pipes over the balance of the decade. While no one is drilling for gas at the moment, the longer-term implication is that as the industry gets more comfortable with underwriting gas and the wells get gassier, the water ratio tends to creep higher as well. Are you seeing evidence from the industry that they're marrying gas growth outlook with the water disposal outlook?

Scott McNeely

Yes. I certainly think the gas takeaway dynamic has been very material in terms of just growth in the Delaware already even before we start looking at the deeper, more exploratory benches that E&Ps have been looking at. So I mean, if you just look earlier this year, the lack of gas takeaway from the Delaware was actually impediment to E&P operators and just the regular way oil operations because the lack of takeaway just forced them to shut in volumes even when oil was over $100.

And so having that come online, I think one is going to be great in terms of debottlenecking the Delaware in general. But as you point out, I think that there is going to be a growing demand for gas for very obvious reasons, and those deeper zones come with a lot of water. I don't think the industry outlook as a whole has really caught up with that. Certainly, nothing that we've seen from third parties is really leaning in on the fact that water growth is going to be a byproduct of this demand for gas. We certainly see that as upside, but that's not something we're call it, predicating the success of our business on here in the near term.

Derrick Whitfield

Great. And then for my follow-up, I wanted to shift over to your recent acquisition and investment in waste management. Could you speak broadly to the supply and demand fundamentals you see for solid waste management in the Delaware and if you're seeing additional opportunities for growth given the attractive build multiples.

Michael Reitz

Yes. Thanks for that question. We really love the space, and we see the demand for it continuing to grow alongside water. We think the fundamentals for that business really marry well with our water business. And so we'll continue to look for opportunities to grow that business and continue to improve margins there.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen with Barclays.

Theresa Chen

Could you provide an update on the Ranger assets now that you've had them in hand for a few months. Are there any details to share on how this could be or has been further integrated into your existing infrastructure, including Speedway? And how are these assets augmenting your growth outlook from here?

Michael Reitz

Theresa, good to hear from you and good question. We have integrated that system into our Speedway system. So that just adds more reliability to not only the Speedway system, but also that Ranger platform that had a lot of good opportunities for growth. We've had a lot of great conversations with the producers on that system, and we do expect that to continue to grow. And so we've got the ability to really scale that system without having to deploy capital for deep wells in New Mexico, and we can take advantage of that Speedway pipeline and adding incremental capacity at extremely attractive pricing.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb

So 2 questions. First, just thinking about the CapEx and the push of some of it into '27. How much of this is either because projects are maybe taking a little longer and therefore, you don't need to spend the money this year, but the money gets spent next year versus trying to manage the CapEx load relative to EBITDA and free cash flow?

Scott McNeely

It's really more just a byproduct of just working capital timing. I mean we have some large construction efforts going on through year-end. As you know, we report cash CapEx. And so to the extent that cash left the door in Q4 versus Q1 is almost, call it, not material in terms of when projects are coming online.

When we were looking at expectations through the back half of the year last quarter, there was a real possibility that some of that cash left the system in December. And so we wanted to just kind of risk weight increasing guidance to the Street in case that were to come to fruition.

As we're a little closer through -- a little closer to year-end now, we're just seeing some of that cash leave in January versus December. And so there's really not a meaningful shift in timing whatsoever. It's just a byproduct of some of these larger projects we have just driving lumpier CapEx payments and some of those hitting in the first part of Q1 versus the latter part of Q4.

Alexander Goldfarb

Okay. So what you're saying is literally, it's just a matter of a few months. It's not like it's like a 6 months or longer. Okay. Okay. The second question is just going back to the election, and I know you talked about on LandBridge and others have asked about it here, but obviously, the market is reacting pretty heavily.

Are you guys -- it sounds like you're saying that really there's no impact from any changes that could happen because either the way you run your assets from having like very vast pore space not over concentrating or that rig count hasn't gotten out of whack and the Delaware remains just hugely profitable regardless of where oil is that you don't see really any change. Is that the case? Or are there things that could happen from a political or regulatory standpoint where it's like, hey, if these things happen, yes, we -- our business could be impacted and it's something that we watch for.

I'm just trying to understand what you guys are watching for as politics changes. I mean, Texas hasn't been blue since the early '90s, so it's a pretty big shift. So just trying to understand what things you guys are really watching that would give you cause for concern versus saying right now, the way the business is run, we feel pretty good.

Scott McNeely

Yes. It's a good question. I mean just through the course of this year, despite having an incredibly constructive macro backdrop as it relates to pricing, we haven't seen a massive ramp in activity levels from producers for a number of reasons.

And so first, as we think through what does that mean stepping into next year and the year after is there's not this massive ramp in activity that would somehow need to be unwound in the near term. I think ultimately, what we see in the Delaware Basin is just the best economics in the Lower 48.

I think you're going to see ongoing development there regardless of what you see from the political side. We've seen New Mexico continue to grow volumes meaningfully over the last several years, and they have been a blue state for as long as I can remember.

And so it serves as a really good analog of the fact that oil and gas activity is not necessarily, call it, opposed by Democrats in oil and gas states. I think as we've seen in New Mexico, they can certainly coexist. There are certainly benefits to the state. And Texas is an oil and gas state through and through, and I don't think the incoming administration is going to really think differently there.

Now we're certainly keeping an eye on producer sentiment on permitting, on commodity prices and all of those kind of leading indicators that could ultimately drive changes in behavior. But at the end of the day, we don't see a massive pivot to status quo in terms of expectations next year or the near term whatsoever from any of our operators just based on the recent election.

Alexander Goldfarb

Okay. And then just to confirm, so this year, there's been no ramp in E&P activity that would cause you concern. And then New Mexico has been a steady grower in water volumes over the past, however, many number of years, which -- and the water volumes are consistent with oil drilling volumes? Or it's as those wells get deeper that maybe the oil volumes don't change, but the water volumes do as the wells get deeper. I'm just trying to understand that.

Scott McNeely

Sure. Yes. There's been -- I mean there's been very modest growth in oil activity, and I don't want to allude to the fact that the macro has not been supportive of that. But what you've not seen is this atypical ramp in volumes and activity that would somehow fall away because of administration change or because of commodity prices slowly kind of falling off.

Now on the New Mexico side, you have seen oil and subsequently produced water volumes grow meaningfully there over the last 5-plus years as activity has really picked up. That is water that is being generated alongside oil and gas production. And so that is not necessarily the supply of water to answer your question there.

Now I think what is fantastic is we're seeing the same dynamic that we spoke to at our IPO is the more these volumes grow, the higher water cuts get, and we've seen that play out. So it's not necessarily linear in the sense where oil is growing at the same rate as water.

We're seeing water growth eclipse oil growth on a rate basis, so the trend is fantastic. It certainly favors the need for a long-haul takeaway solution like what we offer. The growth that we're seeing can no way be cannibalized by recycling.

And so as long as we continue to see that growth and that production continue to rise, there's just going to be a growing delta of water volumes that need to have a solution that require bringing them out of New Mexico into Texas, and we're obviously ready to deliver that.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Scott McNeely for closing remarks.

Scott McNeely

Yes. Thank you, operator, and thank you for everyone joining us today. Obviously, we're very excited with where we're at the business. There is just fantastic momentum heading into year-end and into 2027. As we mentioned in the prepared remarks, really look forward to getting out at the end of the year and speaking to full year 2027 expectations with the Street. But until then, if there are any questions, please feel free to reach out, and we appreciate your time.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.