阿麦伦 (AEE) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：上调业绩指引，381亿美元资本计划

核心要点

• 阿默伦公司（NYSE: AEE）公布2026年第三季度GAAP收益为 摊薄每股2.42美元，高于2.35美元 （2025年第三季度），亦高于调整后收益2.17美元（上年同期）。
• 管理层将2026年每股收益指引上调至5.35-5.55美元， 此前为5.25-5.45美元，理由是今年迄今业绩强劲、天气条件有利以及创新能源技术投资带来的收益。
• 阿默伦发布2027年每股收益指引为5.70-5.90美元。其中 5.80美元的中值相当于8.4%的增长（较公司最初2026年指引中值而言）。
• 该公司预计2027年至2031年每股收益复合年增长率为8%-10%；随着大负荷用电销售放量，2028年和2029年的增长预计将接近该区间的上限。
• 阿默伦计划在2027年至2031年进行381亿美元的资本支出，比一年前发布的计划高出20%以上。管理层预计该计划将推动2026年至2031年的费基复合年增长率达13.3%。
• 已签署的供电服务协议涵盖2.8吉瓦的新增负荷。阿默伦还拥有1.2吉瓦处于建设协议下的项目，以及4.4吉瓦已完成并网研究的项目。

关键财务数据

第三季度收益增长主要反映了销量上升、有利的天气条件、创新能源技术投资收益的增加以及基础设施支出的回报。这些积极因素被阿默伦密苏里公司更高的运营与维护支出（包括以提高可靠性为重点的作业）部分抵消。

业务与运营表现

第三季度是圣路易斯50多年来最温暖的季度，而9月创下了有记录以来的最热纪录。若剔除天气影响，阿默伦密苏里公司过去12个月的零售售电量增长了约0.5%，主要由商业客户拉动。

阿默伦在截至2026年9月期间投资了超过40亿美元用于能源基础设施建设。电网自动化投资帮助避免了超过6300万分钟的客户停电时间（管理层表示，数据覆盖该期间密苏里州和伊利诺伊州全境）。

大负荷用电需求是最新增长计划的核心。阿默伦的五年期预测假定2027年至2031年密苏里州售电量复合年增长率达12.9%，基于到2031年新增2.9吉瓦负荷的假设。公司预计，现有的2.8吉瓦已签署协议将在2027年底开始放量，并在2030年达到满负荷。

谷歌和亚马逊计划投资总额达250亿美元的项目占据了已签约负荷的一部分。管理层表示，工程建设进展顺利，预计这些项目将创造数千个建筑业工作岗位和数百个长期职位。

阿默伦密苏里公司的首选资源计划要求在2027年至2031年期间新增约7.7吉瓦的发电装机容量，使装机容量增加约80%。目前已公布约5.3吉瓦的项目，包括2.3吉瓦已获得监管批准、正在建设中且预计将于2027年和2028年投入运营的单循环燃气、太阳能和电池储能资源。

该公司还在推进拟建的2.1吉瓦西奥尔顿能源中心（West Alton Energy Center），目标是在2031年投入运营。计划新增的发电装机预计将产生约27.5亿美元的税收抵免（2027年至2031年期间），管理层表示这将惠及客户。

阿默伦目前的储备投资规模已超过900亿美元（至2036年），增加了190亿美元。该增长主要反映了阿默伦密苏里公司首选资源计划中假定的到2036年满足5吉瓦负荷增长所需的基础设施。

管理层指引

管理层预计2026年摊薄每股收益为5.35-5.55美元， 假设年内剩余时间气温正常。公司预计年底前在配电线路巡检、树木修剪和能源中心维护方面的支出将有所增加。

对于2027年，阿默伦预计摊薄每股收益为5.70-5.90美元。 管理层将预期的增长归因于基础设施投资、销量提升、经济发展和业务流程优化。

以2027年指引中值5.80美元为基准，阿默伦的目标是 截至2031年每股收益年均增长8%-10%。管理层预计，随着超大规模客户需求和相关费基投资加速，2028年和2029年的增长将接近该区间的上限。

阿默伦还预计股息将伴随收益实现可持续的年度增长，目标派息率为45%-55%。

该展望仅计入了已签署的供电服务协议以及支持2.9吉瓦假设负荷增长所需的基础设施。管理层表示，额外的协议和相关投资可能会带来上行空间，尤其是在该计划的后期阶段。

风险与关注事项

• 施工工期：管理层指出，大型客户现场的工程延误是可能推迟预期销售放量并影响2027年或2028年每股收益增长的首要因素。
• 项目执行：阿默伦正在推进大规模的发电扩建工程，包括燃气、太阳能、电池储能和输电项目。公司正利用标准化设计、提前采购以及成熟的工程与施工合作伙伴来应对进度和成本风险。
• 监管裁决结果：密苏里州电费费率审查仍处于早期阶段。阿默伦预计监管命令将于2027年5月前下达，新费率将于2027年6月前实施。伊利诺伊州电网计划与对账结算裁决预计将于2026年12月出炉。
• 股权稀释：管理层表示，计划中的股权融资是预计13.3%的费基复合年增长率高于8%-10%每股收益增长目标的主要原因。
• 融资需求：阿默伦预计2027年至2031年将发行约50亿美元的股权，并进行大规模的长期债务融资，同时致力于维持其投资级信用评级。

分析师问答要点

管理层表示，费基增速与每股收益增速之间的差距主要归因于股权融资。阿默伦预计在未来五年内将发行约50亿美元的股权，其余大部分需求集中在2027年底和2028年底前后。

关于密苏里州的费率案，管理层表示，该申请主要针对为传统客户进行的投资，而非新的大负荷客户。阿默伦将寻求达成和解，并表示2027年2月下旬或3月上旬可能是潜在的时间窗口，不过目前尚未收到直接证词。

针对大负荷需求，管理层表示谷歌和亚马逊建设现场的工程进展顺利。新增的供电服务协议可能会增强2030年和2031年的每股收益增长，并将高增长期延长至当前计划之外。

阿默伦报告称，除已签署协议外，还有5.6吉瓦的意向大负荷需求。管理层表示磋商仍具建设性，并对2027年可能签署更多协议表示乐观，但拒绝透露明确的时间表。

该公司还表示，针对未来的大负荷项目，仍在考虑替代性客户融资安排，包括有助于支撑资产负债表的结构设计。

财报电话会议完整实录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good day, everyone. My name is Ryan, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome you all to the Ameren Corporation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Andrew Kirk, Senior Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Modeling.

Andrew Kirk

Thank you, and good morning. On the call with me today are Marty Lyons, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Moehn, Group President of our Ameren Utilities; and Lenny Singh, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; as well as other members of the Ameren management team.

This call contains time-sensitive data that is accurate only as of the date of today's live broadcast and redistribution of this broadcast is prohibited. We have posted a presentation on the amereninvestors.com homepage that will be referenced by our speakers. As noted on Page 2 of the presentation, comments made during this conference call may contain statements about future expectations, plans, projections, financial performance and similar matters, which are commonly referred to as forward-looking statements. Please refer to the forward-looking statements section in the news release we issued yesterday as well as our SEC filings for more information about the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.

Lastly, all per share earnings amounts discussed during today's presentation, including earnings guidance, are presented on a diluted basis, unless otherwise noted.

Now here's Marty, who will start on Page 4.

Martin Lyons

Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Starting on Page 4 with key highlights.

Today, we're very excited to share an update to our growth story, one, driven by growing customer energy needs, economic development across our region and the need for an even more resilient grid. We are well positioned to meet these needs, support expansion and deliver durable value to our customers, communities and shareholders.

First, reflecting our strong year-to-date performance and outlook, we have raised our 2026 earnings per share guidance range and issued 2027 earnings per share guidance that represents solid year-over-year growth. Looking further ahead, we have also raised our long-term growth outlook with expected compound annual earnings per share growth of 8% to 10% from 2027 through 2031. This outlook reflects strong economic development across our service territory, particularly in Missouri, where 2.8 gigawatts of signed electric service agreements underpin our higher sales forecast and increased generation investment plan with additional opportunities in the pipeline.

Regional economic growth is also driving incremental investment opportunities in our Transmission segment to connect new generation resources and serve new large load customers. To meet this increasing energy need, we plan to strategically invest $38.1 billion in energy infrastructure over the next 5 years, which is expected to drive 13.3% compound annual rate base growth from 2026 through 2031.

What excites me most about this plan is the opportunity to create lasting value for our customers and communities through a safer, more reliable and more resilient grid, while directly supporting a growing economy with more and better jobs. Indeed, our strategy, outlined on Page 5, is centered on delivering value to the customers and communities we serve, including 2.5 million electric and 900,000 natural gas customers across Missouri and Illinois. By investing in and strengthening our energy infrastructure, advocating for constructive energy policies and continuously optimizing performance to improve service quality, we are delivering on what matters most to our customers: safe, reliable energy at the lowest cost possible.

Turning to Page 6. Execution of our strategy is delivering tangible customer benefits. Over time, we have achieved top-quartile reliability performance and strong customer service satisfaction. We have also supported tens of billions of dollars in annual economic impact and, in 2025 alone, an estimated 63,000 jobs, while keeping average residential rates below national and Midwest averages. And that's before factoring in the significant additional economic impact from the large load and other customer growth our investments facilitate, including significant incremental tax revenue for our communities.

Highlighted on Page 7, execution of our strategy has also delivered strong, consistent shareholder results. Since divesting our Merchant business in 2013, weather-normalized adjusted earnings per share have grown at a compound annual rate of approximately 7.4%, annual dividends per share have increased 78% and total shareholder return has exceeded 300%, significantly outperforming utility index averages. Looking ahead, we believe continued execution of this strategy centered on delivering value for customers and communities will continue to drive superior long-term returns for our shareholders.

Turning now to Page 8. Here, we reiterate our strategic priorities for 2026. Targeted timely infrastructure investments are key to delivering reliable service. As shown on the right, we invested more than $4 billion in energy infrastructure through September to strengthen reliability and resiliency and improve service. The value of continued investment was evident during the third quarter's extreme heat, when our infrastructure performed well and our team successfully managed the system through periods of exceptionally high demand, keeping our coworkers safe, homes cool and businesses running.

This year's severe weather, with Illinois leading the nation in tornado activity, further underscores the importance of building a stronger, more resilient energy system and having skilled teams in place to operate it safely and reliably. In 2026 through September, investments in grid automation helped avoid more than 63 million customer outage minutes across both Missouri and Illinois, a tangible example of how infrastructure investment translates into better service. We also made strong progress on many other objectives, which I'll discuss in a moment.

Moving to Page 9. Yesterday, we reported third quarter 2026 earnings of $2.42 per share, compared to adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share in the third quarter of 2025. The key drivers of our strong third quarter results are outlined on this page. In light of a strong year-to-date performance, we raised our 2026 earnings per share guidance range to $5.35 to $5.55, from our original range of $5.25 to $5.45.

Turning to Page 10 for our 2027 guidance outlook. We have a long track record of strong and consistent earnings per share growth. As we look ahead, we expect this to continue. We expect 2027 earnings to be in the range of $5.70 to $5.90 per share. The midpoint of this range represents 8.4% earnings per share growth compared to our original 2026 earnings guidance midpoint. Lenny will provide the key drivers for 2026 and expected 2027 earnings later in the call.

Turning to Page 11 and Ameren Missouri sales growth expectations. At Ameren, we are proud to provide the quality of service that is necessary to attract investment and economic growth to our region. The pipeline of economic development interest within our service territory remains robust across Missouri and Illinois. Our 5-year financial plan laid out today assumes 12.9% compound annual sales growth in Missouri from 2027 through 2031, based on an assumption of 2.9 gigawatts of new load by 2031.

This growth assumption, as depicted by the dashed green line on the chart on the right-hand side of this page, is consistent with our preferred resource plan through 2030, which projects a 60% increase in Missouri sales by 2030 from 2027 levels. This growth is supported by the existing 2.8 gigawatts of electric service agreements, with sales from those agreements expected to reach full capacity in 2030.

Beyond these signed agreements, our pipeline includes 1.2 gigawatts of projects with construction agreements and an additional 4.4 gigawatts of projects with completed interconnection studies. We were pleased to see one of the projects with a completed interconnection study advance to a construction agreement since our second quarter update. Consistent with the requirements of Missouri Senate Bill 4, large load customers will pay for the power and infrastructure costs driven by their operations. And once their sites are operational, large load customers will contribute to paying fixed costs of the energy grid, providing long-term cost benefits for other customers.

Moving then to Page 12 for an update on Missouri's generation plan. In September, Ameren Missouri filed its 2026 Integrated Resource Plan, updating its 20-year road map to reliably and cost-effectively meet customers' energy needs under a range of future conditions. Using an optimal mix of natural gas, solar, energy storage, wind, nuclear and other technologies, our preferred resource plan is designed to serve 3.4 gigawatts of additional demand by 2031 and 5 gigawatts by 2036.

To support this growth, the plan calls for accelerating and expanding natural gas generation and battery storage, expanding solar generation and adding fuel cell generation, extending the retirement date of 2 Labadie Energy Center units from 2036 to 2042, and adding new nuclear generation by 2040. Importantly, the table on this page identifies the preferred resource plan additions included in our 2027 through 2031 capital plan. The 5-year capital plan supports 2.9 gigawatts of incremental load growth by 2031.

Preferred plan resources identified as not included in our 5-year capital and rate base growth plans represent potential upside to our outlook as we execute additional electric service agreements. We will continue to provide updates on any additional electric service agreements and associated investment needs as appropriate.

On Page 13, we outline how continued execution of our strategy is expected to drive strong growth over the next 5 years. Today, we're rolling forward our 5-year capital plan, which now totals $38.1 billion, reflecting significant investment to serve the anticipated load growth I just discussed, while strengthening system reliability. We expect these investments to drive 13.3% compound annual rate base growth from 2026 through 2031.

Leveraging our proven strategy and building upon our track record of strong earnings growth, we expect to deliver 8% to 10% compound annual earnings per share growth from 2027 through 2031 using our 2027 guidance midpoint of $5.80 per share as the base. As large load sales ramp in 2028 and 2029, we expect annual earnings per share growth near the upper end of that range in those years. We also expect to deliver strong, sustainable annual dividend growth as our earnings grow, with a payout ratio ranging between 45% to 55%.

As we invest to support meaningful economic growth in our communities, our focus remains on delivering reliable, affordable service for all customers, with large load customers paying the costs required to serve their operations. I'm truly excited about the opportunity to support this significant growth and the lasting benefits it can bring to local communities and across our region.

I'll now turn the call over to Michael to discuss our disciplined approach to delivering the generation and transmission resources needed to meet our growing sales.

Michael Moehn

Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Page 15. As Marty outlined, significant economic development is driving growing energy needs across our region. Our economic development teams remain focused on supporting long-term business investment and job growth. That work is translating into tangible results for our communities.

During the second quarter, Google and Amazon announced projects in our Missouri service territory, representing a combined planned investment of $25 billion. These projects are part of the 2.8 gigawatts of ESAs we signed earlier this year. As you can see from the photos on this page, the projects are well underway.

These projects are creating thousands of construction jobs for local contractors and small businesses and will directly employ hundreds of people longer term once operational. These projects are also expected to generate billions of dollars in local tax revenue, helping fund schools and public safety, including fire stations and police stations and improve roads, delivering lasting benefits to the communities where they operate.

Beyond these investments, Google and Amazon have committed millions of dollars through community benefit agreements to support new workforce development, energy efficiency and community-focused programs both locally and across Missouri. We will continue to work closely with businesses interested in locating operations in our service territory to find the right solutions to meet their energy needs and ultimately support economic development in the region.

Moving to Page 16. We continue to make strong progress advancing our generation portfolio to support customers' growing energy needs with a focus on reliability and affordability. As our generation investment grows, we are applying lessons learned across projects through a disciplined, portfolio-based execution model. This includes standardizing designs and equipment as appropriate, securing long lead components early, leveraging experienced engineering and construction partners across multiple projects and strengthening our internal team to provide consistent oversight.

Work underway at the Castle Bluff and Big Hollow energy centers is helping establish a repeatable execution model for other projects, including the 2.1 gigawatt West Alton Energy Center. This approach is designed to improve productivity, better coordinate resources across projects and increase scheduling cost predictability. We believe this approach positions us well to effectively execute future generation projects and meet increasing customer demand.

Turning to Page 17. The execution focus we just discussed is critical as we advance Ameren Missouri's broader generation plan. Consistent with our 2026 preferred resource plan, we are developing a balanced and diverse portfolio that includes adding approximately 7.7 gigawatts of new generation capacity from 2027 through 2031, which would increase Ameren Missouri's installed capacity by approximately 80%. With 5.3 gigawatts of announced projects, we are making tangible progress towards that target.

Approximately 2.3 gigawatts of simple cycle gas, solar and battery storage resources have received regulatory approval, are under construction and are expected to begin serving customers in 2027 and 2028. In July, we filed a CCN request for the 2.1 gigawatt West Alton facility, which is expected to be in service in 2031. In October, the Missouri PSC approved CCN request for nearly 1 gigawatt of solar and storage resources following a 5-month review. These projects are expected to begin serving customers in 2028 and 2029.

With more than 5 gigawatts of new generation resources in progress and more in the pipeline, I'm pleased to say that our teams are well positioned to deliver these projects on schedule for our customers.

Planned generation additions are expected to generate approximately $2.75 billion of tax credits from 2027 through 2031, providing significant savings for our customers. As new large load electric demand evolves, our focus remains on serving all our customers reliably and affordably by carefully planning and executing grid upgrades, maintaining a balanced generation portfolio, and ensuring costs to serve new large load customers are appropriately allocated to such customers in accordance with Senate Bill 4.

Moving to Page 18 for a transmission update. We continue making a robust investment in our region's transmission infrastructure to ensure ongoing reliability and efficiency. We expect our transmission investment levels to remain strong over time to support new large load customers and to connect the generation resources required to serve our territory reliably as regional demand grows.

At the same time, we remain focused on executing our assigned and awarded long-range transmission projects for the first 2 MISO-LRTP tranches. In the second quarter, MISO selected our joint proposals for the [ Will and Stu ] LRTP tranche 2 competitive projects located in our Illinois service territory. Notably, we have won the opportunity to develop all 5 competitive long-range transition projects in our service territory within both the Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 portfolios, reflecting our strong record of delivering high-quality transmission infrastructure at a competitive cost.

I'm also pleased to say that last month, our joint proposal for the competitive EASL transmission project, located in Iowa, was selected from among multiple bids. Over half of the approximate $500 million investment opportunity is included in the capital plan issued today. Importantly, this marks our first competitive transmission project award outside of our service territory and further demonstrates our ability to effectively and efficiently design, build and operate high-quality transmission infrastructure.

On Page 19, we outline the investment pipeline across our businesses over the next decade. These investments will support safety, reliability and resiliency of the energy grid and economic development in our region, while positioning our system to power the quality of life for all of our customers in our territory. The pipeline now includes more than $90 billion of investment opportunity through 2036. The $19 billion increase in our 10-year pipeline primarily reflects the investments needed to serve the 5 gigawatts of load growth assumed within the new Ameren Missouri preferred resource plan by 2036.

Moving to Page 20. We recognize that our critical infrastructure projects represent significant investments, which is why we prioritize the projects that are most beneficial for customers and maintain a sharp focus on keeping rates as low as possible. Through disciplined cost management, we've been able to keep our Ameren supplied residential rates in Missouri and Illinois on average below both national and Midwest averages.

In addition, Ameren invest hundreds of millions of dollars each year to support our customers and communities through energy efficiency programs and demand response initiatives. In October, we announced $10 million of additional funding for programs to help eligible customers in need across Missouri and Illinois manage their energy bills. In addition to funding Ameren developed programs, we also partner with a wide range of organizations to connect customers with available federal, state and local assistance. In 2026 through September, Ameren customers received more than $107 million in total energy assistance.

We're also focused on affordability through transformational process improvements, including implementation of several operational and process enhancements designed to increase efficiency and help manage cost. Since implementing these programs, we have achieved savings of over $100 million annually. For example, we have implemented a standardized planning and scheduling model across distribution operations that improves how work is planned, prioritized, cost-estimated and executed, reducing cost and enabling crews to be more productive. We've also implemented initiatives to design to strengthen the efficiency of our third-party spend.

And also underway, we're working to improve the productivity of our gas operations through standardized operating practices and optimized crew deployment, streamlining operating costs while maintaining strong safety, service and emergency response performance. We're also advancing a multiyear digital road map to optimize operating costs, simplify the technology landscape, and position the company to leverage automation and AI capabilities more effectively.

I'm excited by the operational milestones achieved to date, and I'm confident in our team's ability to effectively execute our investment plans in a way that benefit our customers and communities. I will now turn the call over to Lenny for a financial update.

Leonard Singh

Thanks, Michael. I'll begin on Page 22 of our presentation. Yesterday, we reported third quarter 2026 GAAP earnings of $2.42 per share, compared to third quarter 2025 GAAP earnings of $2.35 per share, and adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share. The difference between 2025 GAAP and the adjusted earnings reflected a previous disclosure of tax benefit of $0.18 per share. The year-over-year third quarter increase primarily reflected higher sales and favorable weather, higher earnings on investments in innovative energy technologies and higher earnings on infrastructure investments to improve system reliability, resiliency and service quality. The third quarter was the warmest in St. Louis in more than 50 years, with the month of September being the hottest on record.

Separate from the impact of weather, we continue to experience solid customer growth at Ameren Missouri, where weather-normalized electric retail sales for the trailing 12 months ended September increased approximately 0.5%, primarily driven by the growth in the commercial customer class. These positive factors were partially offset by higher operations and maintenance expenses at Ameren Missouri primarily driven by increased reliability-focused efforts.

Moving to Page 23 for select considerations for the remainder of the year. As Marty noted, yesterday, we raised our 2026 earnings per share guidance due to strong year-to-date performance. The revised outlook assumes normal temperatures for the remainder of the year. As we close out the year, we expect higher expenditures for distribution line inspections, tree trimming and energy center maintenance that will strengthen service for our customers. Through continued execution of our strategy, we remain focused on delivering 2026 earnings within our updated guidance range.

Turning to Pages 24 and 25 for a brief update on the Missouri electric rate review we filed with the Missouri PSC in late June. The review is proceeding according to the established procedural schedule, and we expect Missouri PSC staff and other intervenors to file direct testimony in early December. Recall the requested revenue increase is designed to recover the cost of significant system reliability and resiliency investments.

In addition to incorporating meaningful improvements for our customers, this request also includes $21 million in savings from projected data center revenues for our other retail customers, and establishes a new income-eligible discount rate to supplement our financial assistance programs already in place. We look forward to working with the Missouri PSC staff and other stakeholders throughout the review process to achieve a constructive outcome. We expect the Missouri PSC order by May 2027, with new rates reflecting the approved adjustment effective by June 2027.

Moving to Page 26 for an update on Ameren Illinois regulatory matters. 2025 annual reconciliation proceeding under the electric multiyear rate plan continues to progress. The $28 million adjustment we are requesting reflects 2025 actual cost, actual year-end rate base and the allowed return on equity and common equity ratio established in the multiyear rate plan. Notably, our requested adjustment is aligned with the ICC staff and administrative law judge's recommendations. An ICC decision is expected in December with the approved reconciliation adjustment reflected in rates in 2027.

Moving to the Ameren Illinois multiyear grid plan proceeding. We proposed a $2.7 billion electric distribution investment plan for 2028 through 2031. The plan is designed to strengthen grid safety, reliability and resiliency while preparing the system to support evolving customer needs and Illinois' clean energy objectives. Last month, the administrative law judge recommended approval of the grid plan with proposed downward adjustments to our capital plan of approximately $200 million. We expect an ICC decision on the proposed investment plan by December. The approved multiyear grid plan will inform a rate review filing we expect to make in the first quarter of 2027.

Turning to Page 27, we look at our company-wide capital plan for the next 5 years. As Marty highlighted, we see robust investment opportunities ahead. The plan we are releasing today calls for $38.1 billion in capital expenditures from 2027 through 2031, an increase of more than 20% compared to our capital plan issued last year. The increase in our capital plan reflects the roll forward of our plan from 2030 to 2031, the firming up of cost estimates and project timing, and the incorporation of new investments.

The investments themselves primarily reflect significant new generation additions at Ameren Missouri, critical upgrades to strengthen and maintain an aging grid across all operating segments, and expanded transmission investments to execute awarded MISO-LRTP competitive projects, and to connect new generation to serve large load customers and support resource adequacy across the region. We expect this investment to drive 13.3% compound annual rate base growth from 2026 to 2031, which is outlined by business segment on this page.

Turning to pages 28 and 29 where we provide a financing update. We continue to feel good about our financial position. As we fund our robust infrastructure plan, we remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and strong credit metrics. Our primary source of funding will continue to be cash from operations, which we expect to increase as sales grow and rates are updated to reflect our investment in energy infrastructure. Additional funding needs will be financed in a balanced manner, consistent with our past practices.

We fulfilled our 2026 equity needs in 2025, primarily through $600 million of forward sales agreements that we expect to settle near the end of the year. We expect to issue approximately $5 billion of equity from 2027 through 2031 and have sold forward in 2026 approximately $1.7 billion of common stock under our at-the-market program to address a portion of those needs. We've had success utilizing our ATM program and expect to continue to leverage the program going forward. We appreciate the flexibility our ATM provides, including the ability to effectively dollar-cost-average our issuances over time.

Based on our anticipated investment and other funding needs, we expect equity issuances for 2027 through 2031 to be concentrated primarily near year-end 2027 and year-end 2028. Long-term debt will fund remaining cash requirements. In 2027, we expect approximately $5.2 billion of new long-term issuance to refinance maturing obligations and fund a portion of our $8.8 billion of planned investments. A portion of such issuances could include parent company hybrid debt securities, which receive 50% equity credit from Moody's and S&P. Expected timing for 2027 debt issuances is shown on Page 29.

We will continue to proactively manage interest rate risk associated with planned parent company new issuances through systematic execution of our rate hedging program. As a reminder, this past spring, S&P and Moody's reaffirmed our stable outlook and BBB+ and Baa1 credit ratings, respectively. As we've said before, we value our current ratings and remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and strong credit metrics as we execute our growth plan.

Moving to Page 30 of our presentation. Marty outlined our 2027 earnings per share guidance range earlier. Expected 2027 earnings detailed by segment compared to our 2026 expectations are highlighted on this page. Robust planned infrastructure investments, strong expected sales and economic growth, and strategic business process optimization opportunities give us confidence in our ability to deliver strong earnings growth in 2027 and the years ahead.

In summary, turning to Page 31, we're excited about the opportunities ahead and confident in our ability to execute our strategic plan and deliver strong, sustainable value to customers, communities and shareholders. As Marty noted earlier, our outlook includes 8% to 10% compound annual EPS growth from 2027 through 2031. And we expect EPS growth near the upper end of that range in 2028 and 2029. This anticipated growth reflects strong economic development with expected 12.9% compound annual sales growth in Missouri from 2027 through 2031, as well as our $38.1 billion 5-year capital plan that is expected to drive 13.3% compound annual rate base growth. Additional electric service agreements and the infrastructure investments needed to serve that demand represent potential upside to these growth expectations.

Over the next decade, we have identified an investment pipeline greater than $90 billion needed to support reliability and anticipated economic growth, while delivering meaningful benefits to our customers. We also expect to deliver strong, sustainable annual dividend growth as our earnings grow with a payout ratio ranging between 45% to 55%.

As we execute our robust growth plan, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and strong investment-grade credit ratings. Taken together, we believe our strong growth outlook, disciplined financing plan, and focus on operational excellence and execution position us well to deliver long-term value for our customers and competitive total returns for shareholders.

With that, we'll now open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Shar Pourreza with Wells Fargo.

分析师问答

Andrew Kadavy

Actually, it's Andrew Kadavy on for Shar. So looking at the EPS rate CAGR and then also the rate base CAGR, we're seeing a big delta there. It's a -- the delta has gone up since your last update. Can you talk about what's driving that? Is it structural? Or is this something that could be narrowed through time?

Martin Lyons

Yes. Look, similar to the past, the big delta between the rate base growth and the earnings per share growth rate that we expect has to do with our financing activities. And as you know, we're going to finance the capital expenditure plan that we have, the $38.1 billion capital plan, in a very balanced way, consistent with the way we've historically financed our operations, which means we will be issuing some equity over time to help with the financing of that.

Today, we talked about, in fact, we expect about $5 billion of equity issuances over the next 5 years. We've already got $1.7 billion of that priced through some of the forward hedging that we've done. But that equity dilution is the primary driver of the difference between the rate base growth plans that we have and the EPS growth that we expect to be able to deliver over the next 5 years.

Andrew Kadavy

And then moving on to the rate case in Missouri. Are you thinking that you'll be able to settle that case? Or since it's kind of the first one with a large load, tariffs evolved, maybe you want to fully litigate it? And then on top of that, what kind of outcome are you embedding in your plan for that rate case?

Martin Lyons

I'll start, this is Marty again, and see if anybody else wants to chime in. But we're really still in the very early stages with respect to that rate review. As we indicated in our prepared remarks, this case is really about infrastructure investments that have been made to serve all of our existing customers. Today, we really aren't serving any large loads. We expect those sales to begin ramping up in late 2027, and only modestly in late 2027 and really not ramp up until '28 or '29.

So really, this case is really all about infrastructure investments we've made for our traditional customer base. We expect, as we mentioned, to see direct testimony from parties in early December. So we haven't seen any of that yet. However, we do always try to work with the parties in these cases to resolve issues, and we have a good track record of being able to settle these rate reviews in the past. And that would be our ambition again as we go into this rate review.

So typically, those settlements have occurred sometime between when true-up testimony is received and the evidentiary hearings began. So that would signal late February, early March of next year in terms of a possible sort of settlement time frame. And as I sit here today, again, not having seen any direct testimony yet, but have no reason to believe we wouldn't be able to reach agreement with the other parties in the case.

Operator

Our next question will come from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

Unknown Analyst

This is Amanda on for Dave. Maybe the first point on large loads and with ESAs expected to ramp starting in the second half of '27 and then reaching full capacity in 2030, what are the main items that could accelerate or delay the ramp? And do you see any impact to earnings from any shifts to the expected ramp?

Martin Lyons

Amanda, yes, look, first of all, as you probably saw in our slides, we were encouraged by the construction activity that we're seeing with respect to the 2.2 gigawatts of construction that's already underway, we showed in a couple of pictures. That's for Google and for Amazon. And so we're seeing really good progress in terms of those construction activities, as well as our own construction crews. It's great to be able to go out and meet with our teams that have been interconnecting the transmission assets that we have to these particular sites and we have had great progress there as well. So really, it's terrific to see.

So as we sit here today, we are encouraged by the signs we're seeing. We expect ramp to begin in 2027. And as you noted, ramp aggressively in '28 and '29.

What could throw that off? I would say construction delays at those sites to the extent those would occur. But frankly, we've had pretty good weather year-to-date and are seeing, again, very good progress. But I think that's the primary thing, would be any delays in construction that could occur over the course of 2027 as they really look to finalize those structures.

And I would say to the extent that any of those sales were delayed due to construction activity or other matters, it would, of course, affect the sales growth and EPS growth that we would see in '27 or '28. But we feel like the CAGR we provided today as well as the guidance we gave about our expectations to deliver near the upper end of that in '28 and '29 have reasonable assumptions baked in, in terms of the growth we expect to see.

Unknown Analyst

Great. That's very helpful. And then you raised the like '26 range to $5.35, $5.55. Any specific moving pieces to call out there and kind of what puts you into that higher range?

Martin Lyons

Yes, I think Lenny covered it really well as he went through 2026. We've had favorable weather year-to-date. We've had some favorable gains on some innovation investments that we've made. And that's been partially offset by investments that we've made, O&M investments that we've made in our system as it relates to things like additional vegetation management, energy center maintenance, things that we've really done to bolster reliability for our customers and our distribution system as well as bolster the reliability of our energy centers, which is really going to be important in the years ahead. We saw those as needed investments, frankly, very early in the year, and began making those investments early. So net, we feel very confident in our ability to raise the midpoint of our guidance $0.10.

Operator

Our next question will come from Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.

Carly Davenport

Maybe just starting on the revised EPS growth outlook. Obviously, the '27 guidance is just north of 8% growth year-over-year. Anything more you can share about the cadence of growth as we work through the new planning period relative to that 8% to 10% range?

Martin Lyons

Yes, that's a really terrific question, and appreciate it. First of all, as it relates to 2027, we had guided on our prior calls that we expected to deliver at the upper end of our prior 6% to 8% earnings per share growth range. And that's exactly what we're delivering today. If you look at that midpoint of that $5.70 to $5.90 guidance, at $5.80, again, 8.4% growth off of the original guidance we gave for 2026, which is $5.35. So I think that should meet expectations.

Now as we look ahead to years beyond that, as we've spoken earlier, we're expecting to see a ramp rate in terms of the sales to our new customers, these hyperscalers, under that 2.8 gigawatts of energy services agreements that we've signed. You can see that we're already deploying more capital in 2027, and we'll be doing so again in 2028 as we really look to invest to build out the generation resources to serve those ESAs. So you're seeing both in '28 and '29 higher sales growth as well as higher rate base growth in those periods. And that is what's given us the confidence to indicate that we expect our earnings per share growth in '28 and '29 to be towards the upper end of that new 8% to 10% EPS CAGR that we've provided.

But again, we feel like we've got really good visible growth all the way out through 2031, which gave us the confidence to provide that 8% to 10% CAGR. And as you know, that's driven by the $38.1 billion of expenditures we have, which, again, was increased not only for incremental generation investments in Missouri, but also, as Michael indicated, incremental investments in transmission as well given the long-range transmission projects that we've won and the need to begin spending capital in the latter parts of this 5-year plan, to achieve the in-service dates of 2032 to 2034 for those LRTP projects. So feel good about the growth all the way out through 2031 based upon all that.

Now I might take the opportunity, given your question, to talk a little bit about some of the upside that we also see in our plan. So I'd focus you on slides 11 and 12 in particular. So as you know, today, we've signed 2.8 gigawatts of energy services agreements. And as I just said, we expect those to ramp up pretty quickly after 2027. The preferred resource plan assumed 2.9 gigawatts of sales growth by 2030. So as we said earlier today, that's what we embedded in this update today. Essentially, 60% sales growth in Missouri by 2030.

If you look over to Slide 12, in the bottom right, in the second column from the right, you see which preferred plan resources which projects and the related CapEx we've included in the update today. That amounts to, if you total up that column, that amounts to 7,650 megawatts of new capacity or about an 80% increase in our installed capacity. That is the generation that we believe is needed to serve that 2.9 gigawatts of assumed growth in sales out through 2030 or 2031.

But as we said today, there's upside in our plans, both to our sales and to our rate base growth plans. If you look back on Slide 11, you'll see that we have another 5.6 gigawatts of large load interest. That's what's supported by construction agreements, interconnection agreements. And the generation assets in the full preferred plan would allow us to serve 3.4 gigawatts by 2031 and 5 gigawatts by 2036. So if we do sign additional ESAs, depending upon the amount and the timing of those sales, we would add spending towards the addition of the resources, shown in the bottom right of Slide 12, and we would be spending that in this 5-year period. So that could be, again, additive in the latter part of this 5-year plan to our sales and to our capital expenditures.

I would also note that in the IRP, there was an upside case, and that's depicted in the dark blue line on Page 11. And while it's not shown in the slides, that would require more simple cycle and combined cycle gas as well as renewables during that period of 2032 to 2034, we would need those assets to go into service. But that would also, as you know, based upon supply chain and construction time lines, that would require us to actually invest more during this 5-year period and drive rate base growth even higher.

So I guess bottom line, where I'm going with, so I'm very optimistic about the future. I'm excited about the economic development opportunities that are before us, excited for the communities that we serve and the jobs that this is going to create. But we've been conservative today in the outlook that we've provided. We've only incorporated sales based upon the ESAs that we've signed. We've only incorporated the capital expenditures for the projects needed to serve those 2.9 gigawatts of sales that we've included. And we think there's upside as we look even at the latter part of this 5-year plan in terms of sales opportunities and additional CapEx. So just building that on because we feel very good about that 8% to 10% CAGR that we provided today.

Carly Davenport

Appreciate that perspective, super helpful. And maybe just in that same vein, you also obviously raised here the 10-year pipeline pretty significantly. Is there anything that you can share sort of on how front-end-loaded that remaining kind of $52 billion or so in additional opportunities beyond the 5-year planning period is, just as you think about some of the moving pieces on the PRP and transmission?

Martin Lyons

Yes, it's a really good question. You're right, we feel really good about that 10-year outlook and that pipeline we have. And I think with respect to the front-end loading, if you will, I think you're saying, hey, do you think it's going to be front-end-loaded after 2031? The answer is, yes, largely as we sit here today because we have got greater visibility there.

And I think what you want to look at is those transmission projects that we won that have those in-service dates, as I mentioned, 2032 to 2034, look at the additional generation assets that we're putting into service, which you see in the slide that we provided on the IRP, there's better visibility in those periods. And so yes, I think as it relates to that incremental $52 billion, that's more front-end-loaded.

But again, I'm optimistic that the growth that we're experiencing today can continue on for a decade, and I think there'll be opportunities to add to that $90 billion as we go through time. That's really what's visible today. And I would say, going back to my answer to your last question, that includes what's in the preferred plan, but it does not include generation resources that would be needed if we were able to achieve the upside case in the IRP.

Operator

Our next question will come from Richard Sunderland with Truist Securities.

Richard Sunderland

Marty, just running through all of the upside case options and pads, it sounds like you have a real eye to additional contract signings. Obviously, the construction agreements and broader pipeline behind that speak to that. How are you seeing the pace of conversations unfolding across those 2 buckets? Any sense on just sort of momentum as it stands now relative to kind of progress over the last 9 months informing today's plan update?

Martin Lyons

Yes, Richard, it's a great question. Look, we are seeing progress. We did see 600 megawatts move from interconnection studies to construction agreements in Missouri. We thought that was positive. Frankly, we're seeing a lot of interest in both Missouri and Illinois in terms of sites that we have that are available for development. And those conversations continue. I think they're constructive. They're positive. They're moving in a good direction. It's just always very hard to put a real time line on when those might convert to energy services agreements. But those conversations are underway and feel really good about those.

As I've mentioned before, even the counterparties that we have today, the Amazons and the Googles, have expressed interest in future expansion in our service territory. So we're working with both developers of these sites as well as counterparties -- ultimate counterparties to move these forward.

So again, hard to put a time line on them. Conversations are constructive. I am optimistic that, in 2027, we'll see further energy services agreements signed, but can't put a definitive time line on that.

Richard Sunderland

No, that's perfect. That's helpful context. And I guess to follow up on that point, it sounds like you're clear on this 5-year plan opportunity. You've already guided to kind of an upper end expectation for 2029. So is this the chance to extend that over '30 and '31. How do you see the upside kind of feathering in over the 5-year period?

Martin Lyons

Yes, Richard, that's exactly the way I'm thinking about it. Over time, if we're able to sign additional ESAs, I look at it as really strengthening the EPS growth rate in the outer years of this 5-year plan and lengthening the period of this strong growth. So I think you've got it right. It's really about lengthening and strengthening as we look ahead to future ESAs.

As I said before, again, I think we've been appropriately conservative in today's outlook. We've really only incorporated the ESAs that we've signed, the construction that's needed to support that, but certainly see upside from there.

Richard Sunderland

No. That's great. And sorry, a quick follow-up on that lengthening and strengthening. The $90 billion plus 10-year plan, what does that roughly equate to on a rate base CAGR basis?

Martin Lyons

Well, I'll let you do the math on that. I think what you'd see is that it provides very good growth beyond the 5-year period, again, lengthening the strong EPS growth rates that we've had, frankly, over the past decade into the next decade. And as I mentioned before, I see upside to that $90 billion as we look out over time as well.

Operator

Our next question will come from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Marty and team, I've learned never to underestimate you guys over the years, and yet again, you guys come in and more than deliver. So kudos to you guys, honestly.

Martin Lyons

Well, thanks, Julien. It's great to have you on the call.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Excellent. So look, let me take what you're putting down. If I can leave with this, we've seen the midterms, we're actively hearing companies talk about pivoting here and specifically some of your customers here, how do you think about your opportunity, you specifically go out of your way to highlight the incremental above the roughly 3 gigs you signed, how do you think about the time line there? I know that was specifically asked you a second ago. But has it changed even in recent days?

And then more to the point, when you think about what this looks like in terms of incremental generation, can you handle it? And the reason I raise this is just on the E&C side, we've seen just the limits of the sector and what they can deliver. I'm very curious to hear how you think about managing the construction risk at the same time here too. So both the upside case, double it down with your customers, I'm hearing that very clearly. Clearly, our [ channel ] checks would suggest that. But at the same time, how do you think about managing the construction risk just given the totality that you have at hand? And I have a quick follow-up on the back end.

Martin Lyons

Okay, Julien. Yes, look, there was a lot there. I'll start and I think I'll turn it over to Michael. He in our prepared remarks today talked a little bit about our preparedness to execute. You started by talking about the election. I would say related to the 2 states we operate in, I think you'd expect relative stability. Governor Pritzker won reelection in Illinois. There was no gubernatorial election in Missouri. Our commissions are not elected commissions. So there was no election results there.

And while we always have some experience of some turnover in the state legislatures, in both cases, the majorities stayed the same post election. So really, I would expect relative stability in terms of energy policy in both of the states. And I think that's a good backdrop as we think about prospectively the growth opportunities, the investment and the growth opportunities that would exist within the 2 states.

Obviously, we're seeing a lot of this growth that we're experiencing, the sales growth and investment opportunity in Missouri. And so again, we'd expect relative stability there.

And again, I would just say that as we thought about building out this 5-year plan, thought, as I said before, I think, appropriately conservative in that we've really only reflected the sales that we've signed up already, the ESAs that we already have as well as the investments to support them. So feel very good about the plan, but continue to feel good about our upside.

Now you're absolutely right, it's really contingent not only on our ability to sign additional ESAs, but to be able to deliver the power that's needed to support those customers. And at that point, I'll turn it over to Michael.

Michael Moehn

Yes, I would certainly echo Marty's comments on the political side too. I mean, I think we like to think about infrastructure economic development as bipartisan issues, if you will. And so we've had term limits in Missouri for a long time, you always have turnover, always building new coalitions and relationships. So all of that will continue.

From a generation perspective, believe we do have a lot going on, as you noted. I mean in the slides, we talked about the 7,600, 7,700 megawatts that we're building an 80% increase. But we feel good about where we are. We got a lot to do, but the team is executing this plan well. We have 2 simple cycles that are under construction. We have all the long lead time material. In fact, on the plant that's coming online in 2027, all the turbines are here, the generators, they're sitting on their pads. So feel good about those and that construction date in 2027.

The Big Hollow Energy Center, same thing, we have all the long lead time material. We have an EPC contract in place with the same person that's building the one in 2027. So feel good about that transition that's occurring there. And then also from a West Alton perspective, making good progress there. We had the long lead time material on this combined cycle. It's a big plant, 2,100 megawatts, under contract for a long period of time. We've recently executed a construction agreement with our local partners here, both Alberici and McCarthy, long-term partners of ours that have built a lot of generation for us. They're very involved in our renewable build as well.

I mean I think it's a great economic development story. We got Missouri companies building Missouri generation. So again, a lot to do there, but we have a nationally recognized engineering record involved in that plant, the same ones, Sargent & Lundy, that's been involved with both the 2 simple cycles. So feel good about that from a design perspective. Putting some additional project oversight in place to make sure that we can execute this.

From a renewables battery perspective, I mean, it's really a rinse-and-repeat sort of program. Just, again, a lot of discipline around it. standardizing where we possibly can, just it makes it simple from a design and construction perspective, and then an operating perspective. And able to use a number of, again, local EPC contractors to help build with this.

So a lot of activity, a lot of economic development, which is absolutely great for the region, great for skilled craft. That part is incredibly positive. We're going to have to manage it well, but feel good about where we sit today, Julien.

Martin Lyons

Julien, it's Marty again. Just one thing to add on the -- what Michael said and tie it to my earlier remarks. I mentioned earlier that when you look at what's sort of outside of our capital plan today, which includes some of the resources on the bottom right of Slide 12, that's not to say that we haven't taken action. In fact, we have taken action to ensure that. To the extent that there are long lead time commitments that we needed to make to lock in our ability to deliver those resources in the '27 to '31 time frame, we have taken that action. So I just wanted to make mention of that.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Excellent. So one small nuance -- and first off. And again, I was more alluding to maybe folks leaving Texas to come to you guys. But maybe with respect to the equity plan just very quickly -- that's what I was thinking. That's what we're hearing out there. But really, if I can talk about the equity plan real quickly, you have 13% rate base CAGR here. Your last plan talked about 250 to 300 basis points of equity dilution, give or take.

When you think about today, you're talking -- it seems like it implies roughly 300 basis points of dilution. Is there any chance that you get incremental customer deposits to bring that down on the margin or the percentage of incremental equity versus CapEx on future deal shifts? We've seen some of your peers talk about, but I just want to make sure I'm hearing you right on this. if there's anything to read in between lines on just de-equitizing the plan on the margin, if you will, through deposits.

Martin Lyons

Yes. Well, first of all, Julien, I think either one of our states, Missouri or Illinois, would welcome folks that want to come from Texas. So I appreciate that sentiment. Look, with respect to the capital plan, the rate base growth plans, the equity dilution and all that, I think that's all reasonable.

Michael Moehn

Yes, Julien, I mean, I would say, absolutely, those types of arrangements are certainly on the table. I mean, obviously, we have this large loan tariff that's in place today that's serving the 2.9 that Marty referenced. But as we think about this next phase and the 2.1 that he referenced, I mean, clearly, we have the ability to try to look at those arrangements, make sure that we have, again, the right parameters in place to make sure we're protecting all stakeholders. But also if there's a way to finance this in a different way that helps from a balance sheet perspective, we absolutely are looking at those.

Operator

Our next question will come from Diana Niles with JPMorgan.

Diana Niles

Reading the Missouri IRP, we saw listed a pipeline of over data center opportunities in the company's Missouri footprint. If you could provide some color characterizing that wider opportunity set to the 5.6 gigawatts laid out in your slides, that will be appreciated. And is there an opportunity for any of those projects to contribute to growth during the plan period or sustain to the next?

Martin Lyons

Yes. Listen, I think the best way we've tried to frame that is in terms of the energy services agreements we've signed and then the backlog that we have of construction agreements and interconnection agreements. So as you know, we've already signed 2.8 gigawatts of energy services agreements. We baked that into our assumptions today. In fact, we baked in 2.9 gigawatts total.

But beyond that, those sites that you saw within the IRP, that really translates into what we're seeing today, again, is about 5.6 gigawatts of affirmed large load interest. And that takes the form of both 1.2 gigawatts of construction agreements, another 4.4 gigawatts of incremental projects with interconnection studies completed. As I said before, we're pleased to see about 600 megawatts go from interconnection studies into construction agreements in this quarter.

So I think that's the color and the projects, and we're excited about the ESAs we've already signed, and we're excited about that backlog and the conversations we're having about serving additional data centers in our service territory. We appreciate the question.

Operator

We have now reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the call over to Marty Lyons for closing remarks.

Martin Lyons

I want to thank everybody who joined us this morning. A lot of really great questions and a lot of great dialogue. Hopefully, you got a lot out of that exchange.

As you can tell, we're absolutely focused on strong execution of our plan and we're going to continue to do that for the remainder of this year and into next year and work very diligently as a team to serve our customers well, to deliver safe, reliable and affordable energy. And so again, thank you all for joining us today. And with that, have a great day and a great weekend.