Primo Brands (PRMB) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：销售增长、业绩指引及3亿美元回购

核心要点

• 可比净销售额同比增长3.3%至18亿美元，标志着Primo Brands连续第三个季度实现增长。价格/产品组合贡献了5.9%的增幅，但被2.6%的销量下滑所部分抵消。
• 调整后EBITDA增长1.6%至4.11亿美元。可比调整后EBITDA利润率下降40个基点至22.6%，主要受运输成本上升和战略投资影响。
• 直接配送可比净销售额增长2.2%。准时全额交付履约率从去年同期的刚逾50%提升至90%以上，有效支撑了客户留存率与满意度。
• 管理层目前预计2026年可比净销售额增长约3%，调整后EBITDA约为14.65亿美元，处于此前指引区间的下限。
• 调整后自由现金流指引维持在7.90亿至8.10亿美元不变。净杠杆率连续第三个季度下降至3.32倍，管理层的目标是在2027年内降至3倍以下。
• 董事会批准了一项最高达3亿美元的新股票回购计划。管理层还预计2027年调整后EBITDA金额和调整后自由现金流将实现增长，正式指引将于2月发布。

主要财务数据

业务与运营表现

直接配送和零售业务的增长均进一步扩大，其中区域天然泉水、纯净水和高端品牌表现强劲。高端品牌继续保持两位数增长。Primo Brands还报告称，几乎所有渠道以及多种包装规格均实现增长，其中整箱装和特定场景装领涨。

由于定价和产品组合的利好抵消了销量下滑的影响，零售销售额实现增长。零售折合标准箱销量下降，部分原因是为了支持即饮消费而调整了产品销售策略。

直接配送业务连续四个季度实现环比改善。管理层将复苏归功于服务提升、获客执行力增强以及严格的定价纪律。服务的改善减少了联络中心的来电量，并提升了净推荐值（NPS）和Trustpilot评分。

该公司已开始按季节优化配送路线和人员配置。其他举措包括更具科技赋能的联络中心以及预计将于2027年推广的仓库管理系统。

即饮消费仍是核心增长重点。管理层表示，该板块占品类销售额的略低于三分之一，但利润贡献占比更高。Primo Brands在即饮消费领域的份额约为其总市场份额的一半，在其销售组合中仍处于个位数百分比水平。扩张举措包括客户自备冷库、品牌冷柜、货架和侧端架陈列，预计大部分增长机遇将在2027年释放。

管理层业绩指引

管理层将2026年可比净销售额增长指引收窄至约3%，即此前2%至4%区间的中值。在剔除已退出业务后，2025年可比销售额基数为66.35亿美元。

调整后EBITDA目前预计约为14.65亿美元，处于此前14.65亿至15.15亿美元指引区间的下限。该预期反映了货运压力以及对包括即饮消费在内的增长渠道的持续投资。调整后的指引意味着第四季度调整后EBITDA将实现同比增长。

调整后自由现金流指引重申为7.90亿至8.10亿美元。公司继续将年度基础资本支出目标定为净销售额的约4%。2026年整合资本支出总计约1亿美元，预计年内剩余时间新增支出极少。

对于2027年，管理层预计调整后EBITDA金额和调整后自由现金流将实现增长，且净杠杆率将进一步走低。潜在驱动因素包括定价翘尾效应、收入增长管理、即饮消费组合占比提升、高端品牌增长以及新的生产力举措。公司计划于2月发布正式的2027年业绩指引。

风险与关注重点

紧张的货运市场和居高不下的即期运费令第三季度利润率承压。与石油相关的投入成本和原生PET价格也依然是波动的源头。

Primo Brands已增加其2027年柴油对冲头寸，达到与2026年大致相当的水平。锁定的价格高于2026年平均水平，但低于当前的现货价格。管理层提醒称，对冲并不能完全使公司免受大宗商品通胀或供应商成本转嫁的影响。

尽管价格/产品组合带来正面贡献，但当季销量仍下降了2.6%。管理层正持续密切关注消费者对价格调整的反应，包括单客购买量、单客消费金额以及单客到店频次。

战略投资可能会继续抵消部分运营改善成果。管理层还预计第四季度将计入一笔与自愿提早退休计划相关的一次性费用，而相关收益大部分预计将在2027年体现。

分析师问答亮点

• 2027年盈利前景：管理层在2月前未对预期的调整后EBITDA增长进行量化。管理层指出，定价翘尾效应、高端品牌增长势头、分销渠道拓展、生产力提升以及柴油成本能见度改善是支撑因素。
• 直接配送业务复苏：管理层表示，更优质的服务提升了客户留存率和满意度。下一阶段将聚焦于获客、产品搭售率、配送路线效率、行驶里程以及每条路线的工时。
• 定价灵活性：2026年现有的提价举措将延续至2027年。若成本压力依然居高不下，公司可能会视消费者反应和竞争环境，考虑进一步提价、加收配送费或燃油附加费。
• 即饮消费：Primo Brands正优先推进冷柜投放、冷库分销以及常温陈列。管理层表示，年度客户协议预计将在2027年推动该战略更广泛地落地市场。
• 第四季度销售走势：管理层表示，全年展望并不代表品类需求减弱。管理层指出，2026年第二季度的增长中包含了约150个基点与前一年问题相关的基数影响；经正常化调整后，环比增速更接近第三季度的水平。
• 资本配置：公司计划优先对自身业务进行投资，同时降低杠杆率，并通过股息和股票回购回馈现金。季度股息维持在每股0.12美元不变，年化为0.48美元。

业绩电话会完整纪要

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Primo Brands 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

I would now like to turn the call over to Traci Mangini, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Traci Mangini

Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. With me on the call today are Eric Foss, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and David Hass, Chief Financial Officer.

Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. For information, please refer to the forward-looking statements disclosure in our earnings release.

In addition, the definitions of and applicable reconciliations for any non-U.S. GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release and supplemental earnings slides, which were made available earlier today on the Investor Relations section of our website.

With that, I'll pass it to you, Eric.

Eric Foss

Thanks, Traci. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Today, I'll review our third quarter performance and the progress we've made over the last 12 months since I was named Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. I'll also discuss how we've positioned the company to be fit to win, advanced our key growth priorities and managed a dynamic cost environment and how that progress has set us up for 2027. David will then discuss our financial results and 2026 guidance in greater detail. Then, we'll be happy to take your questions.

Let me start with the quarter. We're encouraged by the momentum across the business with strengthening fundamentals supported by stronger-than-expected performance in direct delivery and broad-based strength in retail, including dollar share gains in bottled water. This led to third quarter net sales of $1.8 billion, up 3.3% on a comparable basis versus prior year, resulting in a third consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Adjusted EBITDA increased 1.6% to $411 million as growth in productivity helped offset continued freight and oil-related input cost pressures while we maintained disciplined investment in the business. With 1 quarter remaining in the year, we're narrowing our 2026 comparable net sales growth and adjusted EBITDA guidance expectations within the prior ranges. Our momentum this year supports approximately 3% net sales growth, which is the midpoint of our previous guidance of 2% to 4%. We expect adjusted EBITDA at the lower end of the previous guidance range of $1.465 billion to $1.515 billion, as continued freight pressure and strategic growth initiatives partially offset improved operating performance.

Taking a step back, 1 year ago, our business performance and the operating environment were very different. Since then, we've simplified the leadership structure to allow faster decision-making, sharpened accountability, improved execution and returned both direct delivery and the total business to growth. More importantly, the improvement reinforces the ability to sustainably grow over the long term.

We have a leading position in an attractive category, a strong portfolio of brands and an advantaged route-to-market network that provides us multiple avenues for value creation. This is all supported by our team of associates who I'd like to thank for their dedication and contributions, which are essential to our progress and long-term success.

When I came into this role, we established 4 priorities. The most immediate were to first improve the customer experience in customer direct; and second, return the company to balanced growth. We have done both. The third was to deliver on our financial objectives and the fourth was to drive long-term shareholder value creation.

So let me walk through the progress we've made over the last year. Direct delivery has delivered 4 consecutive quarters of sequential improvement, reaching 2.2% net sales growth in the third quarter this year. The improvement reflects a customer-first orientation that has led to improved service, better execution around customer acquisition and disciplined pricing.

Our focus on service is paying off. On-time in-full increased dramatically from an average of just over 50% in the third quarter a year ago to over 90% this year in the third quarter. Achieving this during peak season demand is particularly encouraging and it led to lower contact center call volumes and continued improvement in customer satisfaction metrics with increases in both NPS and Trustpilot scores.

With service levels stabilized, we are beginning to translate that recovery into better operating efficiency. In the fourth quarter, we began implementing targeted productivity actions, including seasonally adjusting routes and headcount. We also continue to advance our initiatives to create a more efficient, technologically enabled contact center and warehouse management system, which we expect to roll out in 2027.

Our second priority was to return the total business to growth, which is exactly what we've done for the last 3 consecutive quarters. Enterprise growth was broad-based across direct delivery and retail across regional spring waters and purified waters and continued strong double-digit growth in premium brands. Growth in both regional spring water and purified water also accelerated in the third quarter when compared to the first half of the year. In addition to strength across water types, we grew across nearly all channels and multiple pack sizes with particular strength in case pack and occasion pack.

We are excited by the opportunities that lie ahead, and we continue to invest to strengthen our brands, expand our presence and drive improved growth via immediate consumption, premium and through revenue growth management capabilities.

Our final priorities are to deliver against our financial objectives and build a strategy for long-term shareholder value creation. We plan to share more on our long-term strategy at CAGNY in February. So for now, let's discuss our financial objectives.

Amid a challenging macro cost environment this year, our business has performed well. We raised our net sales guidance twice this year and continue to improve the quality of our free cash flow and strengthening of our balance sheet. Against this backdrop, our Board's authorization, as announced today, of a new $300 million share repurchase program underscores our confidence in the opportunities ahead and the commitment to creating long-term shareholder value.

Given the environment, we wanted to give you an early look at 2027 and the direction we are headed. The progress we're making in the business and the actions underway give us confidence in a path to adjusted EBITDA dollar growth, adjusted free cash flow growth and improvements in net leverage in 2027. We intend to provide formal 2027 guidance in February, including the magnitude of adjusted EBITDA dollar growth. But for now, we wanted to share the drivers that give us confidence in that path. These include carryover pricing from 2026, stronger revenue growth management, favorable mix as immediate consumption scales, continued premium brand growth and newly introduced productivity initiatives across the business.

We've increased our diesel hedging for 2027 to a level similar to 2026, and we reached that position earlier than we did headed into 2026. This does not fully insulate us from cost pressures, including potential cost pass-throughs, but we're encouraged by the steps we're taking to manage the costs within our control. David will discuss some of these drivers in more detail in a moment.

In summary, 1 year into this journey, we're pleased with our progress, with more work to do to optimize our potential. As One Team Primo, we're building a customer-focused culture obsessed with executional excellence and that commitment is showing up in our service levels and in our performance. Direct delivery has stabilized and returned to growth. Retail has demonstrated broad-based strength and continued to gain dollar share of the category and the organization is operating with greater focus and accountability.

And while there is more work to do, we remain confident in our ability to deliver long-term profitable growth, cash generation and shareholder value creation.

With that, let me turn the call over to David.

David Hass

Thank you, Eric. To enhance comparability of continuing operations, we focus on comparable results, which exclude the Eastern Canadian operation exited in the first quarter of 2025 and the Office Coffee Services business exited during 2025. Reconciliations are available in our earnings release and supplemental slides on our website.

Third quarter comparable net sales increased 3.3% versus the prior year. Price/mix contributed 5.9%, which offset a negative 2.6% volume contribution. Importantly, growth continued to broaden across the business with direct delivery increasing 2.2% on a comparable basis and retail and direct delivery had a more balanced growth profile for the first time since the first quarter of 2025.

In retail, net sales increased as price and mix offset lower volume. Retail volume declined on a case equivalent basis, partly reflecting changes in certain product selling strategies to support our immediate consumption offering.

Direct delivery net sales growth was driven by price and mix, partially offset by a volume decline. On a quarterly sequential basis, net sales growth accelerated, providing further evidence that recovery efforts are improving performance. Adjusted EBITDA increased $7 million to $411 million. Comparable adjusted EBITDA margin declined 40 basis points to 22.6% versus the prior year, primarily reflecting higher transportation costs given the tight freight market and elevated spot rates as well as ongoing strategic investments to support long-term growth and productivity.

EBITDA before adjustments increased substantially for the quarter and year-to-date, while our adjustments related to acquisition, integration and restructuring expenses decreased 73% in the quarter and 55% year-to-date. On a quarterly sequential basis, comparable adjusted EBITDA margin improved 120 basis points as operating efficiency and productivity continued to stabilize during our seasonally strongest quarter.

Turning to the balance sheet and cash flows. Our balance sheet continued to strengthen and the underlying quality of our cash flow improved. EBITDA and free cash flow adjustments declined significantly in the quarter, bringing reported results into closer alignment with underlying performance. Net leverage improved to 3.32x at the quarter end from 3.42x at the end of the second quarter, marking 3 consecutive quarters of decline. We remained focused on reaching a net leverage ratio of below 3x and expect to achieve that target during 2027.

Our liquidity remained strong with $1.064 billion of availability between our cash balance and our unused line of credit. We ended the third quarter with $477 million of cash on our balance sheet, up $111 million from the second quarter and $101 million from year-end 2025, demonstrating the cash-generative nature of our business despite ongoing inflationary pressures and last year's integration disruptions, which are behind us.

We generated $293.6 million of cash flow from operations for the quarter. Adjusting for significant items, most notably integration and merger activity, cash flow from operations would have been $329.8 million. Adjusted free cash flow, which excludes integration-related capital expenditures, was $274.2 million in the quarter, representing a $36.9 million decline versus prior year. Underlying cash flow remained strong, even as cash taxes increased due to higher pretax income in the quarter and working capital investments to support the growth in sales.

Our strong financial flexibility allows us to reinvest in the business while returning cash to shareholders. Third quarter total capital expenditures were $83 million. Of that amount, the majority of the investment supported growth initiatives and maintenance with only $20 million related to integration activities. Overall, capital expenditures were down 37% in the quarter.

During the quarter, we repurchased a total of 943,000 shares for $22 million, comprised of approximately $12 million or 532,000 shares in market repurchases and $10 million or 410,000 shares in connection with One Rock's secondary offering on August 6. At quarter end, we had $40.8 million remaining under the program authorization. As part of our commitment to returning cash to shareholders, today, we announced that the Board authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $300 million, replacing the existing program, which included the approximately $41 million of unused capacity that I just mentioned. Finally, this week, our Board of Directors declared a $0.12 quarterly dividend, which annualizes to $0.48 per share.

Turning to guidance. As a reminder, in 2026, we cycled the exit of our Office Coffee Services business, which accounted for $25.5 million in our reported 2025 net sales as well as the Eastern Canadian operations, which accounted for $3.6 million in our reported 2025 net sales. This puts the comparable 2025 net sales base at $6.635 billion. As Eric discussed, we expect comparable 2026 net sales growth of approximately 3%, the midpoint of the previous guidance range. We also now expect adjusted EBITDA at the lower end of the previous guidance range of approximately $1.465 billion, reflecting the dynamic macro cost environment, notably the freight market and ongoing strategic investments in new growth channels like immediate consumption.

Our refined guidance implies a year-over-year growth rate for fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA. As performance has improved this year, integration recovery-related to reinvestments have begun to roll off, allowing us to shift to productivity measures. In the fourth quarter, we are implementing targeted actions to seasonally optimize routes in direct delivery and other enterprise-level workforce reductions to better align headcount across routes, warehouses, production and corporate functions.

These measures include an ongoing voluntary early retirement program. We expect to record a related one-time charge in the fourth quarter, with most of the benefits expected to be realized in 2027. We are reaffirming our adjusted free cash flow guidance of $790 million to $810 million, supported by the strength of our cash generation, along with expected add-backs associated with the fourth quarter workforce productivity program.

Lastly, we are maintaining an annual base capital expenditure target of approximately 4% of net sales. In 2026, this was supplemented by approximately $100 million of integration capital expenditures with minimal usage expected for the balance of the year.

In closing, we remain focused on driving net sales growth while taking disciplined actions to manage higher transportation costs, reduce spot freight exposure and mitigate commodity pressures. These actions include our growth plans, the newly introduced productivity initiatives and potential additional pricing actions, further supported by proactive financial risk management. If cost pressures remain elevated for an extended period, we have additional flexibility through delivery fees and fuel surcharges.

Our 2027 diesel hedging is ahead of where we were at this point last year, bringing our current coverage broadly in line with the overall percentage of our exposure we hedged for 2026. While the prices we have locked in for 2027 are above our 2026 average, they remain below current spot prices and continue to provide meaningful protection against market volatility. We have also selectively secured virgin PET supply contracts for 2027 and remain in active negotiations with suppliers. While these actions do not eliminate commodity cost volatility, when taken together, they improve our visibility, reduced near-term exposure and support a path to deliver adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow growth in 2027.

With that, I'll turn the call back to Traci.

Traci Mangini

Thanks, David. [Operator Instructions] Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

分析师问答

Peter Galbo

David, I guess just to start and appreciate the early commentary on 2027, but just wanted to press a little bit on that to gauge some of the puts and takes, particularly around the EBITDA number. I know you're calling for dollar EBITDA growth. I think consensus is currently looking at, call it, mid- to high single-digit growth, which given just the cost environment, I wanted to press a little bit on that. I know you're going to get more specifics as we get into February. But just looking at the current consensus relative to what you're saying about plans for growth, we just don't know how much. If you could help us a little bit more there as we kind of refine models for next year.

David Hass

Sure. Thanks, Pete. Yes, I think we're going to stick with providing that specific dollar value and range, both for the top and bottom line in the February calendar event that we discussed. But I think as you look into the environment, we remain pretty confident with where sales have trended and where we think that horizon looks for us, notably because obviously, the premium brands and the broad-based diverse growth that's occurred year-to-date, we expect to sort of have that tailwind with us as well. We'll obviously have pricing actions that sort of roll into next year on an annualized basis.

And then when it comes to the cost environment, I think we're at a place where our hedges, at least within our indirect and direct diesel usage set us up favorably with how we acquired those hedges and at what prices across this year. Obviously, that's subject to where WTI and subsequent diesel refined product ends up. But I think we feel good that we at least go in with an understanding of those cost pressures and how to understand what volume or price-oriented actions are required.

And I think the other thing with regard to sort of capital allocation decisions, we remain pretty confident that we can navigate 2027 on a 4% CapEx basis of top line. And I think that should start to provide clarity along with sort of repurchase announcements and things like that with our primary goal investing in the business, but also being able to delever with the current rate environment and continue to reduce sort of our interest expense exposure. So I think that's really the comfort we're able to provide today. Again, I think we remain committed to using this period between now and February to really refine our productivity targets to sort of ensure that dollar growth we just communicated.

Operator

Your next question comes from Derek Lessard with TD Cowen.

Derek Lessard

I just wanted to hit on the direct delivery, which, Eric, it beat your expectations. So I was wondering if you could maybe talk us through what drove the upside? And where do you see the growth opportunities from here? And then maybe just as a follow-up, with the integration now behind you guys, and I think you touched on it briefly in your opening remarks, maybe just add some color on where you see the biggest optimization opportunities.

Eric Foss

Thanks, Derek. It's Eric. Yes, I think we're really encouraged by the recovery and the progress we've seen on the direct delivery business. Obviously, it starts with our ability to put a great service foot forward, which we've done. Again, we've seen for several months now on-time in-full continue to be right in that mid-90s range, which obviously impacts the number of calls and the number of quits. So again, we continue to see the sequential growth of that business. That's translating into improved retention, improved NPS and Trustpilot customer satisfaction scores. And as you said, I think the integration is now behind us.

I think we've definitely demonstrated that, that business has stabilized. Now it's about unlocking the growth flywheel, which is really all about, again, improved retention, making sure we have -- drive new business, but that, that new business is durable in nature, driving attachment to our existing customer base. Our exchange and refill business continues to perform very, very well. And so I think the additional add I would probably include is that now that we are post-Labor Day and we've route optimized coming out of that, I think some of the key operating metrics on a go-forward basis will lead to improved operating leverage on that business as well.

Operator

Your next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

Lauren Lieberman

Wanted to get some color on how the immediate consumption pricing initiatives have been going, sort of just an update on conversations with retailers, what your sense has been in terms of any kind of consumer perception or reaction or lack thereof? And then also with that, would just love to hear more about progress and runway on cooler placement and if there's a particular set of channels that you're focused on first and just how big you think that opportunity could be?

Eric Foss

Sure. I mean we continue to believe this is a real big and important opportunity, Lauren. So as we've said before, it's a big piece of the category, a little less than 1/3 of the category in terms of sales, but even more important in terms of its profit contribution. And we're very under-indexed. We're underdeveloped. Again, it's -- our share on immediate consumption is half of what it is on our total market, and it's a single-digit percentage of our mix.

So our strategy going forward is really to drive presence and availability. So it's about distribution. It's about getting into the customer-owned coolers and cold vaults. It's about placing our own branded coolers and driving the ambient side of this business, which in our category is, in many cases, consumer preferred as well, rack, side stack. So it's an exciting opportunity.

Most of this will play out in 2027. So again, as we've gone through this year, it's been a lot of preparing to win. And as we go through the annual customer development agreements, that's where a lot of the selling strategy will come to life. But -- we're continuing to monitor our cooler throughputs in the pilot markets and again, are really encouraged about where this will go in 2027 in particular.

Operator

Your next question comes from Daniel Moore with CJS Securities.

Dan Moore

Maybe just talk broad picture. Great to see the increased hedging actions you're taking to protect further inflationary pressures. As inflation sort of built on itself, is it getting harder, not only for Primo, but the competitors to take price? Just wondering what you're seeing in terms of customer elasticity and whether there's been any noticeable changes across the businesses after multiple rounds of price increases and that inflationary pressure. How is it impacting just overall volumes that you're seeing? Any comments there would be great.

Eric Foss

Sure. Yes. Let me try to start with maybe what we've tried to do on the pricing front, and then I'll bridge that to kind of how we think about that and what some of the key metrics we're monitoring on the volume front. So again, our overarching goal is balanced volume and pricing. Our principles around pricing have remained intact. We continue to run any of our pricing actions through the lens of how will the consumer react. Obviously, we want to maintain our level of competitiveness, which we have done. And then in terms of the company P&L, absorb the inflationary costs that we're seeing.

So we initiate pricing actions. We continue to be pleased with those and monitoring those. I think as we went through this quarter, one of the things we're encouraged by that David mentioned is the position we're in now as we head into 2027 given the rollover pricing that will impact that. I think we continue to have, again, a great value impression to the consumer across consumer occasions from refill to exchange to our Pure Life brand, particularly on the value side.

And then in terms of volume, again, overarching, very pleased with the growth trajectory. I think we're seeing healthy balanced growth across the portfolio, whether it's direct delivery, whether it's retail, brands, channels. I think that really speaks to the strength of and kind of diversity of both our business model as well as the continued consumer engagement around healthy hydration. We continue to look at what's happening relative to some key consumer metrics like volume per buyer, dollar per buyer, trips per buyer, all of those were up in Q3.

And obviously, we continue to monitor where we stand from a market share standpoint. And in our case, we're the only scaled national player that has grown our value share in Q3 and year-to-date. And when you just look at the branded piece, we continue to grow both our value share and our volume share. So we'll continue to monitor it and be flexible to try to drive as good a balance as we can, but certainly encouraged by the continued growth of the business.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan Chase.

Drew Levine

Drew Levine on for Andrea. So I just wanted to circle back to the initial comments around 2027. David, I'm just wondering maybe does that comment sort of assume any incremental pricing actions that would need to be taken to grow EBITDA dollars? Or does it sort of contemplate what's already in the market? And you also mentioned that if commodity prices remain elevated, you may look to take fuel surcharge or delivery fees on the direct business. I'm wondering when those sort of actions could potentially take place if this sort of commodity level would necessitate that action? And anything else from a direct delivery pricing perspective relative to retail where you've already sort of taken larger increases?

David Hass

Yes. Thanks, Drew. I think within the business -- and because our '26 pricing actions didn't exactly begin on January 1 of this year, we do have different waves, if you will, that sort of roll into 2027. I think we remain very flexible and dynamic within the market. I think if things stand where they are today, we would largely rely on distribution and those rollover actions to sort of shape the top line situation for '27. But again, I think that remains entirely dynamic as we feel like we are in a better spot for next year than we were coming into this year with respect to diesel and those direct exposure points, obviously, that's been an incredibly dynamic market.

Even in the last 3 weeks, WTI has moved in magnitudes of $20-plus a barrel. So I think we're in a better position set up for that to at least know our cost activity to either attack that through, again, rollover pricing actions, volume/distribution gains in both immediate consumption, retail or sort of customer dynamics in direct delivery.

And then what productivity actions we have to continue to align against. Again, notably, those will continue to be things like increasing our private fleet, becoming more efficient with miles driven overall as we're exiting the year with a much better OTIF percentage than we obviously entered 2026. I think that allows us to focus on sort of more legacy productivity tactics where we look at productivity per route. We look at miles driven per route. We look at man-hours per route, and we start to really refine and optimize that.

So I think the short of it is we feel more confident that our existing pricing actions will provide a nice starting point. And again, I think we remain totally flexible that if the dynamics from here change, we'll have to consider other things. But as Eric mentioned, that will always start and end with the consumer. I think we're incredibly blessed to have a very diverse portfolio within our bulk product.

Again, the Pure Life brand playing well against private label, the regional spring water and then, of course, the premium side, which we expect that growth to continue into 2027. So I think it's a nice starting point. Obviously, between now and February, we're going to monitor the market and make sure we're set up for success next year.

Eric Foss

And Drew, it's Eric. The only thing I would add is, again, we're a branded company that right now is competing in a very, very attractive category, leading brands within that category and engaged consumer around healthy hydration that I mentioned earlier. And I think back to David's point earlier, we certainly are positioned much better than we were a year ago at this time, given where we sit around rollover pricing and the impact that will carry into 2027, new productivity initiatives. And obviously, we'll continue to monitor and manage the dynamic environment. But the intent was to really communicate that we're better positioned than we were a year ago at this time. And again, we continue to benefit from pretty significant advantages, both at the category level as well as our position within the category.

Operator

Your next question comes from Andrew Strelzik with BMO.

Andrew Strelzik

I wanted to go back to the top line discussion and the commentary and the confidence all sounds very constructive. But if I look at the guidance and what it implies for the fourth quarter, it seems like a bit of a flattening sequentially of that growth rate from the third quarter. So I'm curious how you're thinking about the puts and takes there. I would assume that direct delivery business maybe continues to accelerate. So are you seeing some offset on retail? Are there any other kind of one-offs that we should be aware of? Any color there would be great.

David Hass

Sure. Thanks, Andrew. So I think when we step back and look at the quarters this year so far, the one area I want to highlight is, obviously, we are very proud of Q2 success. That 4.2% top line enterprise value really comprised about 150 basis points of growth that was related to the Hawkins-related issue in Q2 of 2025. So when you start to normalize for that and you look at the sequential pattern on a -- if you want to adjust that, that kind of sits at about a 2.7%, you then progress to about a 3.3%. That puts us at a year-to-date, even with that 4.2%, of about 3.1%.

So I think as we just look at the environment, I think we're remaining confident in that midpoint. I understand the sort of the mathematics there. I think it's basis points on the margin either side. But again, I don't think there's a signal from us that there's a consumer waning of interest in the category or our products. I think we're just trying to single into a kind of a sweet spot for the full year with the time remaining. And I think that sets us up for a good foundation for next year. So I wouldn't look into that in any way, but I think the color on Q2 maybe provides a little perspective of how we're thinking about on an adjusted basis where that sequence really falls.

Operator

Your next question comes from Jon Andersen with William Blair.

Jon Andersen

On direct delivery, as you pivot to the growth flywheel, Eric, could you talk a little bit more about what some of those initiatives might look like and how they'll kind of roll into the market? I'm thinking about things you've talked about in the past around building the basket or attach rates to other products, maybe price harmonization, other things there. And then also in -- with respect to direct, could you talk a little bit more about top of funnel, the kind of the add part, the added customer part and your approach there and maybe now relative to how it maybe differed prior to your tenure, I'd appreciate that.

Eric Foss

Sure. I'll take some of that and let David jump in and add his thoughts as well. I think, first of all, on the RGM and pricing, yes. I mean, for us, we want to continue to make sure that lever is working for us either on the retail or the customer direct business. I think for us, again, it starts with retention because the most valuable customer we have is the one that we're servicing today. But through what we call our First Focus initiatives, we are looking in fourth quarter to really focus on attachment, whether that be case pack or premium packaging to our direct delivery customers. So that's one that we'll continue to execute against.

And then relative to the top of the funnel, again, a variety of initiatives that we continue to pursue. And again, continue to be encouraged because as we said, I think, throughout the year, that customer base has remained stable and very consistent quarter in, quarter out.

Operator

This concludes our Q&A today. I would now like to turn the call over to Eric Foss for closing remarks.

Eric Foss

Thank you. Again, thank you all for joining us today. We're looking forward to the momentum and are encouraged by the path forward. And we appreciate your continued interest and investment and look forward to updating you on our continued progress. Have a great day.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day.