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NWN 2026年第三季度财报电话会:EPS指引上调至$3.10-$3.20

2026年11月6日 08:27
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Northwest Natural Holding Company将2026年每股收益指引上调至3.10美元至3.20美元,前九个月每股收益同比增长6.6%至1.62美元。业绩增长主要得益于全业务板块利润率提高、严格的成本控制、SiEnergy业务表现以及华盛顿州和俄勒冈州的新燃气费率生效。同时,公司拟将年化股息提高0.03美元至每股2.00美元,实现连续第71年提高股息,并重申5亿至5.5亿美元的资本支出计划。

该摘要由AI生成

得益于年内迄今强劲的业绩表现、建设性的监管裁决以及较低的运营和维护成本,Northwest Natural Holding Company(NWN)上调了其2026年盈利指引。第三季度业绩还反映出所有业务板块的利润率均有所提高,但部分被折旧和融资成本的增加所抵消。

核心要点

  • NWN将2026年每股收益指引上调至3.10美元至3.20美元,理由是年内迄今的表现、监管裁决以及严格的成本控制。
  • 2026年第三季度每股亏损收窄至0.71美元,上年同期为0.73美元。燃气公用事业收益具有季节性,大部分收入和利润产生于冬季供暖月份。
  • 前九个月每股收益增长6.6%至1.62美元,而2025年同期调整后每股收益为1.52美元。
  • SiEnergy前九个月净利润增长440万美元,合每股0.10美元,这得益于客户增长以及收购Pines带来的全期业绩贡献。
  • NWN重申了其5亿至5.5亿美元的资本支出计划。年内迄今资本支出较2025年增长12%。
  • 拟派年化股息增加0.03美元至每股2.00美元,创下该公司自2012年以来的最大增幅,也是其连续第71年提高股息。

关键财务数据

指标2026年第三季度 / 前九个月对比管理层评论
第三季度每股亏损0.71美元2025年第三季度亏损0.73美元利润率提高和运营维护成本控制成效被折旧与融资成本部分抵消
前九个月每股收益1.62美元2025年调整后每股收益为1.52美元;同比增长6.6%SiEnergy以及俄勒冈州和华盛顿州的新燃气费率支撑了增长
Northwest Natural Gas前九个月净利润增长160万美元每股收益下降约0.02美元新费率和严格的成本控制支撑了净利润
SiEnergy前九个月净利润增长440万美元贡献每股0.10美元客户增长和对Pines的收购是主要驱动因素
Northwest Natural Water前九个月净利润下降170万美元对每股收益产生0.04美元的影响与业务集中化相关的运营维护费用及折旧增加拖累了业绩
其他板块前九个月净亏损改善850万美元同比运营维护费用的降低被融资成本的增加部分抵消
2026年资本支出计划5亿至5.5亿美元重申年内迄今支出增长12%
拟派年化股息每股2.00美元增加0.03美元派息率已进入55%-65%的长期目标区间

业务与运营表现

SiEnergy

SiEnergy的客户增长率约为13%(截至2026年9月30日的12个月)。管理层表示,较高的抵押贷款利率放缓了得克萨斯州的房地产活动,但客户增长仍保持在两位数。

待开发地块储备达到近265,000幅(截至季度末)。自不到两年前收购SiEnergy以来,NWN已为该储备增加约110,000幅地块。

9月,SiEnergy达成了归入NWN旗下的首个费率案和解。该和解协议规定收入需求增加860万美元、核准股本回报率为9.8%,以及近60%的权益比率。在获得委员会批准的前提下,新费率预计将于11月生效。

该和解协议还确立了燃气可靠性基础设施计划(GRIP)所需的参数。在获得最终命令的前提下,管理层预计SiEnergy将于2027年提交首份GRIP申请。

Northwest Natural Gas

根据已获批准的多年期费率计划和解协议,华盛顿州的新费率已于8月1日生效。在俄勒冈州,替代费率机制裁决批准了1300万美元的收入需求增幅,而最初申请为1560万美元。这些费率已于10月31日生效。

管理层表示,公司已为供暖季做好准备,包括在Mist储气设施新增两台压缩机,以保障冬季用气高峰期的供应可靠性。

根据俄勒冈州当前的监管时间表,NWN预计将于2028年提交首个多年期费率案申请,新费率将于2029年生效。公司正在评估包括提出常规费率案在内的各项方案,以过渡到多年期框架实施之前的时期。

Northwest Natural Water

供水公用事业客户增长率略高于2%(截至9月30日的12个月)。管理层维持了其2%-3%的长期客户增长目标,同时承认房地产活动有所放缓。

该公司旗下最大的供水公用事业企业Foothills正在继续推进其在亚利桑那州的费率程序,其中包括采用公式费率的请求。另外四起供水费率案正在审理中,预计将于2027年初结束。

NWN还动工建设了其在得克萨斯州的首个社区项目,SiEnergy与Northwest Natural Water将在该社区联合提供天然气、供水和污水处理服务。管理层表示,由于其燃气与供水业务重合,得克萨斯州仍是这种综合服务模式的主要市场。

MX3储气扩建项目

MX3是一个投资3亿美元、受FERC监管的项目,旨在增加4-5 Bcf的区域储气能力。该项目在发出开工通知后即全部签订了为期25年的协议,拥有12.5%的股本回报率及50%的权益比例。

管理层继续争取在2027年底前发出开工通知。有关该项目有条件使用许可的上诉目前正在土地使用上诉委员会审理,但公司表示该上诉已反映在其时间表中。

管理层指引

NWN将2026年每股收益指引区间上调至3.10美元至3.20美元。管理层将这一上调归因于年内迄今好于预期的执行情况、建设性的监管裁决以及良好的运营维护成本表现。

该公司重申了其长期每股收益增长目标,即不含MX3为4%-6%,含MX3为5%-7%。公司计划在2月份公布第四季度业绩时提供2027年指引和最新的资本展望。管理层表示,截至2030年的长期资本计划没有变化。

该指引假设客户持续增长、气候正常,且监管政策、预期的监管裁决、法律或法规没有发生重大变化。

NWN预计2026年股票发行总额为4000万至5000万美元,其中包括已发行的2600万美元。管理层表示,其按市价增发(ATM)计划应足以满足预期的股权融资需求。公司已完成计划中的2026年债务融资,并继续将浮动利率债务敞口目标控制在不超过10%。

风险与关注事项

  • 较高的抵押贷款利率抑制了得克萨斯州以及部分供水公用事业市场的房地产活动。SiEnergy 13%的客户增长率低于管理层年初15%-20%的预期。
  • 折旧和融资成本的增加部分抵消了第三季度利润率的提升及运营维护成本控制成效。
  • Northwest Natural Water正在承受业务集中化带来的更高运营维护成本,以及基础设施项目产生的更高折旧。
  • 俄勒冈州的多年期费率框架预计要到2029年才会生效,这造成了潜在的投资回收缺口,管理层可能会通过常规费率案来解决这一问题。
  • MX3项目仍需获得许可并面临正在进行的上诉程序,不过管理层维持了在2027年底前发出开工通知的目标。
  • 燃气发电在俄勒冈州面临限制,不过管理层认为区域能源需求将继续支撑对储气的长期需求。

分析师问答要点

管理层表示,俄勒冈州近期的监管听证证词并未改变其对多年期费率框架启动前是否需要提交过渡性申请的评估。包括常规费率案在内的所有选项仍均在考虑之列。

在谈及得克萨斯州房地产市场时,管理层表示,尽管受到高利率的抑制,SiEnergy的增长势头依然强劲。管理层还称,除非利率环境发生重大改变,否则两三年前的市场增长顶峰可能已经过去。

该公司证实,MX3的上诉程序仍在按计划推进,并未改变其在2027年底前获得开工通知的预期。

关于股息,管理层表示其政策基本面保持不变,包括55%-65%的派息率目标。2月份可能的更新或将包括年度股息上调的时间安排。

业绩电话会议完整实录


完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Northwest Natural Holding Company Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Nikki Sparley, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Nikki Sparley

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings call. In addition to the press release, a supplemental presentation is available on our Investor Relations website at ir.nwnaturalholdings.com. And following this call, a recording will also be available on our website.

As a reminder, some things that will be said this morning contain forward-looking statements. They are based on management's assumptions, which may or may not occur. For a complete list of cautionary statements, refer to the language in our press release.

Additionally, our risk factors are provided in our 10-Q and 10-K filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see our press release and the slides that accompany today's call, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website.

Please note, our guidance assumes continued customer growth, average weather conditions and no significant changes in prevailing regulatory policies, mechanisms or assumed outcomes or significant changes in local, state or federal laws, legislation or regulations. We expect to file our 10-Q later today.

With us today are Justin Palfreyman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ray Kaszuba, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Justin will provide highlights from the quarter, a regulatory update and a look forward. Ray will walk through our financial results and guidance. After Justin and Ray's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. With that, I will turn the call over to Justin.

Justin Palfreyman

Thanks, Nikki. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. I'm pleased to report another quarter of strong financial results. Earnings per share for both the quarter and year-to-date exceeded our expectations, driven by disciplined cost management, solid operational execution and continued customer growth. Given the strength of our business through the first 9 months and our visibility into the remainder of 2026, we are raising our annual earnings guidance. With the heating season still ahead, we are confident in our position today and the momentum we are building into 2027.

Importantly, we achieved these results while prioritizing customer affordability. At a time when inflation and energy costs are top of mind, our objective is to invest prudently in growth, reliability and the safety of our systems while carefully managing costs on behalf of our customers. That mindset is embedded across our organization. A central tenet of our long-term strategy is collaborating with regulators to align customer needs with utility investment requirements. Across our service territories, we continue to find that timely recovery of investments is important for both customers and utilities. We have long been proponents of multiyear ratemaking and its benefits. Customers benefit from more gradual and predictable rate adjustments and utilities gain greater visibility and certainty to invest in critical infrastructure.

With this in mind, let me provide an update on our regulatory dockets. Starting in Texas, we settled our SiEnergy rate case in September, the first under our ownership. The settlement provides an $8.6 million revenue requirement increase, a 9.8% authorized ROE and a nearly 60% equity ratio. We also received the factors necessary to file for the Gas Reliability Infrastructure Program, or GRIP, which provides accelerated recovery of CapEx between rate cases. We expect new rates to take effect in November, subject to commission approval.

Even after the rate changes, we still expect SiEnergy's customer bills to remain competitive with other Texas gas utilities. SiEnergy is laying the foundation for future investment recovery through both GRIP and the established benefits provided under HB 4384. Together, these mechanisms help reduce regulatory lag, support ongoing infrastructure investment and contribute to more gradual customer bill impacts over time.

Turning to Northwest Natural Water. Foothills, our largest water utility, continues to make progress on its Arizona rate proceeding, including its request for formula rates. We believe formula rate structures can provide a more efficient path for recovering investments while maintaining transparency and regulatory oversight. We have 4 additional water rate cases underway, which we expect to conclude in early 2027. We also continue to advance our rate consolidation strategy across our water utilities. We've made progress in Idaho and Washington and are pursuing further consolidation in Oregon, Arizona and Texas with the goal of simplifying regulatory administration and reducing costs for stakeholders.

Turning to Northwest Natural's regulatory updates. As we mentioned last quarter, new rates in Washington became effective August 1, following approval of our multiyear rate plan settlement. In October, we received the final order for our Alternative Rate Mechanism, or ARM, in Oregon and are pleased with the outcome. The order provides for a $13 million increase in revenue requirement compared to the original ask of $15.6 million. New rates were effective on October 31.

We also received approval for our annual Purchase Gas Adjustments, or PGAs, in both Oregon and Washington. Even after taking into account the ARM in Oregon, the recent Washington rate case and gas costs from the PGA, the average Northwest Natural residential customer continues to pay about the same today for their natural gas service as they did 20 years ago. Over that same period, comparable electricity rates have more than doubled in our region.

Entering the heating season, our gas supply and system readiness position us well to meet customer demand. This includes the addition of 2 new compressors at our Mist storage facility, helping to support reliability during peak winter conditions. In Oregon, we continue to engage constructively with stakeholders as the state advances the framework for multiyear ratemaking. Phase 2 is now underway with conversations occurring across several work streams. While these discussions progress, our priority remains the same, finding solutions that support customer affordability while ensuring utilities can continue to make the investments necessary to maintain safe and reliable service.

Under the Oregon Commission's current schedule, we expect to file our first multiyear rate case in 2028 with new rates effective in 2029. Before our first multiyear rates go into effect, we are closely examining additional options such as a general rate case to ensure timely recovery of our investments and costs. By 2029, once multiyear rates are in place in Oregon, we expect over 95% of our overall rate base to have some form of forward-looking rate plan or mechanism. These mechanisms support more timely recovery of investments help to smooth out customer rate impacts and provide longer-term visibility into our financial results.

With that, let me spend a few minutes on our major growth initiatives, starting with SiEnergy. Customer growth remains strong, up approximately 13% for the 12 months ended September 30, 2026. Elevated mortgage rates have begun to moderate housing activity from peak levels in Texas. While SiEnergy is not immune to these trends, we are still bullish on the Texas housing market long term and are still seeing healthy double-digit customer growth and a robust development pipeline. Underscoring our confidence in the future, our backlog continues to grow and sits at nearly 265,000 lots as of quarter end.

Since acquiring SiEnergy less than 2 years ago, we have added approximately 110,000 new lots to the backlog, which is quite a testament to the strength of SiEnergy's reputation and development team. SiEnergy continues to be one of the fastest-growing gas LDCs in the country and the combination of continued customer growth, a constructive regulatory framework and recovery mechanisms in Texas support our confidence in SiEnergy's long-term EPS growth.

For our water utilities, we are making great progress on centralizing and consolidating the business. Our objective is to build a platform designed to scale efficiently over time. Customer growth at Northwest Natural Water was just over 2% for the 12 months ended September 30. Similar to SiEnergy, we are seeing a modest slowdown in housing activity in some of our markets due to higher mortgage rates.

Over the coming years, we are still confident in our long-term 2% to 3% customer growth target. Our teams are making significant progress on capital projects at our Foothills utilities, including tank projects that support anticipated customer growth and reliability of our water storage and distribution systems. Longer term, greenfield development remains an important incremental growth driver for our water utilities. I'm excited to highlight that we recently began construction on the first community in Texas, where we are serving gas, water and wastewater through both SiEnergy and Northwest Natural Water. The ability to offer multiple utility services through a single company is a differentiated value proposition for developers, and we see opportunities to expand this model in the years ahead.

Finally, moving to MX3. As a reminder, MX3 is a $300 million FERC-regulated gas storage expansion project that will add 4 to 5 Bcf of capacity in our region. The project is fully contracted with 25-year agreements upon notice to proceed, a 12.5% ROE and a 50% equity layer. We continue to work through the permitting process and remain on track to receive notice to proceed by the end of 2027.

As discussed last quarter, we received unanimous approval of our conditional use permit from the Columbia County Board of Commissioners. As expected, an appeal was filed with the Land Use Board of Appeals, or LUBA. That process is underway, and our time line for notice to proceed remains unchanged. MX3 represents an important opportunity to enhance energy reliability across the Pacific Northwest and upon receiving notice to proceed, would support increasing our long-term earnings growth target to 5% to 7%.

In summary, the strategic work we have done over the past few years is starting to produce tangible results. We serve growing service territories, are advancing key regulatory initiatives and investing in critical infrastructure, all while controlling costs and maintaining financial strength. Given our year-to-date results and expectations for the balance of the year, we are raising our 2026 earnings guidance and remain confident in our long-term growth.

Additionally, we recently announced our largest dividend increase since 2012, which reflects that same confidence. The dividend remains an important component of our shareholder value proposition, and the increase highlights both the strength of our underlying business and our expectation that we will continue to drive sustainable earnings and dividend growth over time. That confidence is grounded in our well-established track record. For more than 167 years, Northwest Natural has successfully navigated a variety of economic environments, including periods of elevated inflation and higher interest rates. Throughout our history, we have consistently adapted to those conditions and delivered value to shareholders while staying committed to affordability and serving customers safely.

With that, I'll turn it over to Ray for a more detailed financial update.

Raymond Kaszuba

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. As Justin mentioned, we are raising our EPS guidance range to $3.10 to $3.20, driven by our better-than-expected year-to-date performance, constructive regulatory outcomes and the strong execution we're seeing across the company. A meaningful contributor has been our continued focus on cost management. We're seeing favorable O&M performance across several parts of the organization, reflecting both productivity improvements and disciplined spending decisions. We are also reaffirming our capital expenditure plan of $500 million to $550 million. Year-to-date CapEx is up 12% over last year as we continue to invest in growth and reliability across our utility systems.

Turning to a more detailed review of our financial results. As a reminder, our gas utility earnings are seasonal with the majority of revenues and earnings generated in the first and fourth quarters during the winter heating months. For the third quarter of 2026, we reported a loss of $0.71 per share compared to a loss of $0.73 per share for the same period in 2025. Results were modestly improved year-over-year due to higher margin across all businesses and O&M expense management that was partially offset by higher depreciation and financing costs. For the first 9 months, we reported earnings per share of $1.62 in 2026, up 6.6% compared to adjusted EPS of $1.52 for the same period in 2025.

The year-to-date increase in earnings per share reflected a higher contribution from SiEnergy as well as new rates across our gas utilities in Oregon and Washington. These items were partially offset by higher O&M expenses at Northwest Natural Water. At Northwest Natural Gas, year-to-date net income was up $1.6 million, but EPS was down roughly $0.02. Results were driven by new rates and continued cost discipline. At SiEnergy, year-to-date net income was up $4.4 million or $0.10 per share, reflecting customer growth and a full period of contribution from the Pines acquisition.

At Northwest Natural Water, year-to-date net income was down $1.7 million or $0.04 per share, reflecting higher O&M from continued operational centralization and higher depreciation from several key infrastructure projects. Finally, our other segment's year-to-date net loss improved by $8.5 million, driven by lower O&M, partially offset by higher financing costs. Overall, we are pleased with our operational execution and believe the guidance increase appropriately reflects the strength of our year-to-date performance while maintaining a prudent outlook as we start the 2026 to 2027 heating season.

Turning now to shareholder returns. Last month, we announced an increase in our indicated annual dividend of $0.03, bringing it to $2 per share. This marks our largest dividend increase since 2012 and extends our track record to 71 consecutive years of dividend growth. I am very pleased with the significant progress we've made over the past 2 years to bring the payout ratio down to our long-term target range of 55% to 65%. Our dividend increase reflects the strength and stability of our underlying business. We continue to have strong organic growth opportunities across our regulated businesses and remain committed to investing in essential utility infrastructure and driving sustainable earnings growth while maintaining a solid balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders.

As we have said previously, we expect dividend growth to be higher than it has been historically and supported by continued earnings growth. Beginning in 2027, we will announce updates to our dividend approach in connection with our annual guidance updates on our fourth quarter earnings call in February.

Before turning to questions, I wanted to briefly discuss how we are thinking about financing in the current environment. Given the recent interest rate volatility and broader inflation, we remain focused on a financing strategy that preserves flexibility and supports long-term value creation. On the debt side, we've intentionally maintained a diversified maturity profile and avoided concentrations of refinancing risk. Approximately 75% of our debt is at our regulated businesses, where financing costs are generally recovered through rates. Northwest Natural Gas, which represents the largest portion of our financing needs, benefits from a predictable capital program that generally requires only modest debt financing each year. That allows us to remain flexible and opportunistic as we access capital markets.

Across the company, we have maintained very limited exposure to floating rate debt. Our target remains 10% or less, which helps reduce earnings volatility and provides greater predictability for customers and shareholders. For 2026, we have completed debt financings for the year. On the equity side, we believe the ATM provides sufficient flexibilities to support our anticipated equity needs. We continue to expect to need $40 million to $50 million in total for the whole year, and we've already issued $26 million. While equity needs may vary from year-to-year depending on our CapEx profile, we believe our current plan can be supported by our ATM.

Stepping back, I want to emphasize the flexibility of our financing plan. We have multiple levers to execute our capital program and navigate changing market conditions. Combined with our regulatory strategy and disciplined approach to capital allocation, we believe we are well positioned to continue delivering value for both customers and shareholders across a wide range of economic environments. With that, we'll open up the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Constantine Lednev with Wells Fargo.

分析师问答

Constantine Lednev

Congrats on a great quarter.

Justin Palfreyman

Thanks, Constantine.

Constantine Lednev

Maybe just starting off on the Oregon multiyear plan process. The draft has been absorbing some pretty meaningful lag. Does the draft change your view around interim support filing? I guess what's embedded in your current plan? And what are the options for a smoother kind of path into a multiyear framework in '28?

Justin Palfreyman

Yes. I appreciate the question. We are evaluating options for bridging the period between 2026 and when we will file our first multiyear rate case in 2028. We have all options available to us, including a general rate case. So we are actively evaluating that.

Constantine Lednev

And does some of the recent testimony kind of change any of your views around the need for some of these interim filings just in terms of timing or maybe accelerating some of that?

Justin Palfreyman

No, I don't think so, Constantine.

Constantine Lednev

Okay. And just with the -- I guess, with the Oregon election behind us, some of the policy shifts in Oregon enable any further gas generation to back up renewables or coal retirements? Or does the data center uncertainty kind of complicate some of these incremental gas demand needs just as we think in the context of MX3 and any further kind of Mist expansions?

Justin Palfreyman

Yes. It's a great question. The gas-fired generation is difficult in Oregon. We would expect that you would see more of that happening in surrounding states just because of some of the restrictions in the state of Oregon. All of that, though, and the dynamics that you are referring to bode well for future gas storage expansion because there is a very significant need, especially on peak during the winter for additional energy resources, whether that's generation on the electric side or even on the gas grid itself. And so we still see strong long-term demand beyond even MX3 for gas storage in our region.

Constantine Lednev

Okay. Got it. And then just maybe a quick regulatory follow-up on the SiEnergy of settlement. Just in terms of what's embedded in the current plan and just going forward, assuming approval, what would you look for in terms of timing the GRIP filings going forward on a more cyclical basis?

Justin Palfreyman

Yes. Having the factors in place now for GRIP and assuming we get the final order here in the next few weeks, we would expect that our first GRIP filing would be in 2027. So -- and similar to other utilities who've leveraged this mechanism, we have up to 5 years of leveraging GRIP before a general rate case will be required again.

Operator

Your next question comes from Richard Sunderland with Truist Securities.

Richard Sunderland

Great. I wanted to follow up on that last question around kind of the SiEnergy outlook. You spoke a little bit to the housing starts angle. And I guess maybe this is even more broadly touching water as well. Could you just parse a little bit more around what you're seeing on the ground on the housing front, how that compares to plan and kind of outlook assumptions? And I guess, ultimately, do you expect the earnings impact from this over the next year or 2 versus what you budgeted for? Just trying to contextualize all this.

Justin Palfreyman

Yes. I appreciate that. What we're seeing on the ground in Texas is still very strong growth. So if I think about what we thought at the beginning of the year, sort of 15% to 20% customer growth year-over-year. If you look at the last 12 months, we're tracking just below that, around 13%. That's still a significant amount of new meters being set in our markets in Texas for SiEnergy. So we're seeing a moderation because of interest rates and other macro factors, which would be, I think, very, very intuitive and logical, but we are still seeing very strong growth. And I think that's evident in terms of how that translates into earnings. I think that's evident with the results you've seen here in Q3. And we continue to be bullish on our outlook in terms of housing growth in Texas, but I think that the peak from maybe 2 or 3 years ago is probably behind us unless we see some meaningful change in the interest rate environment.

Richard Sunderland

Understood. That's helpful to run through. And then turning to MX3, I know you briefly touched on the LUBA appeal process. Has there been any movement on that since last quarter? Just any kind of state of the state, so to speak, on MX3 that we may not be appreciating? And I guess, separate but related, what do you have in focus on MX3 on kind of the next 3- to 6-month basis as you progress towards NTP in '27?

Justin Palfreyman

Yes. We just continue to work through that appeal process, which works on its -- the court appointed time line. We had a recent hearing on that. And so we'll expect to hear more over the coming months. And none of this really changes our expectation on when we expect notice to proceed, which continues to be by the end of next year. That time line contemplates this appeal process and has always contemplated that.

Operator

Your next question comes from Dylan Lipner with Mizuho.

Dylan Lipner

Congrats on a good quarter. Just kind of want to get on the guidance range update here. So with this $3.10 to $3.20 at the midpoint, it's about 7.5% above 2025 adjusted EPS versus the 4% to 6% long-term target. How much of the raise is timing or onetime or a higher base? And how should we think about 2027 growth maybe going off the $3.15 midpoint?

Justin Palfreyman

Appreciate the question. I'm going to hand that over to Ray to answer.

Raymond Kaszuba

Dylan, thanks for the question. So I think you noticed in our release and on the call today that we also reaffirmed our long-term growth rate without MX3 of 4% to 6% and with MX3 of 5% to 7%. We typically provide guidance for the prompt year in February. So you'll hear more about 2027 then from us. But I think reaffirming that long-term growth rate from the higher guidance that we gave today gives you some direction in terms of how we're thinking about things long term.

Dylan Lipner

Got you. And we'll have a capital read through the long-term plan in 2027.

Raymond Kaszuba

Sorry, can you repeat the question?

Dylan Lipner

We'll have a full capital update in 2027 as well.

Raymond Kaszuba

Yes. We'll provide that in February.

Justin Palfreyman

And I think you also saw there's no change to our long-term capital plan through 2030 either.

Operator

Your next question comes from Alex Kania with U.S. Bancorp BTIG.

Alexis Kania

Justin, I think you talked a little bit about this opportunity in the prepared remarks, just about, I guess, lack of a better term, the kind of combined platform of water and gas services maybe in Texas. I was just wondering where else you see those opportunities over time as you kind of hinted that on the prepared remarks.

Justin Palfreyman

Yes. Thanks for the question, Alex. What we did after we acquired SiEnergy is we consolidated business development efforts around gas and water in Texas because we saw very strong relationships with the developers and homebuilders there that the SiEnergy team had and had a long-standing relationship there in those communities, and there was overlap with our water utilities, particularly in the broader Houston market. So over the course of 2026, we've been very focused on trying to leverage that and really make sure new communities that are getting built understand that we can deliver both water, wastewater and natural gas service to those communities.

And we're starting to see some signs of success there, and that's why I highlighted that in my prepared remarks. It's super exciting to think about new communities going in where we're providing all 3 of those services. We will continue to focus on that in Texas. There may be opportunities for us to look at that in other states, but our gas and water overlap is not quite the same as it is in Texas and the growth opportunity in some of our other markets isn't quite the same as what it is in Texas, which is why you're hearing the focus there.

Alexis Kania

Great. That makes sense. And maybe a question for Ray. Just thinking about the discussion you were mentioning about the dividend, and I guess we'll get a little bit more clarity on this in the next year-end earnings call. But just again, thinking about where are the areas where you feel like you could update some of that dividend policy? Is this just kind of a refresh of what you're looking at on ongoing cash flow? Is it a potential change or thoughts on where the payout ratio needs to be in context of where the capital plan looks? I'm just kind of curious about what are the levers actually that you're looking for as you kind of make that determination going into the year-end call.

Raymond Kaszuba

Yes. I don't think there's going to be any changes in the fundamentals in terms of our payout ratio, et cetera. We just recently gave the payout ratio target of 55% to 65% and combined with earnings, we think that gives good direction in terms of how we're thinking about our dividend profile going forward. We will provide more information in February, but some of the things that we're considering is timing of our annual increase, for example, but we'll provide more color in February.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Justin Palfreyman, CEO, for closing remarks.

Justin Palfreyman

Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. We appreciate all the questions and your interest in Northwest Natural Holdings. We are pleased with our year-to-date 2026 performance and our raised guidance range of $3.10 to $3.20 per share. This reflects the confidence we have in the rest of the year and our ability to execute on our growth strategy. As always, please don't hesitate to reach out to Nikki with any further questions. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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