BKV 2026年第三季度财报电话会：产量增长与400兆瓦Temple扩建

BKV公司2026年第三季度财报电话会议主要聚焦于上游产量的提升、坦普尔（Temple）电力开发项目的扩建，以及为公司增长计划提供资金而增强的流动性。管理层还强调了得克萨斯州的监管不确定性以及ERCOT电价面临的近期压力。

核心要点

• 调整后EBITDAX升至1.33亿美元，高于1.01亿美元（2025年第三季度）。归属于BKV的调整后净利润为4000万美元，即摊薄后每股0.36美元。
• 上游日均产量为981 MMcfe/d，高于BKV基准指引区间的上限。近期收购的巴内特（Barnett）资产在当季贡献了约两周的产量。
• BKV将其坦普尔（Temple）能源综合体规划的模块化发电一期项目规模上调至400 MW（原为200 MW），这得到了与意向承购方达成的成本补偿协议的支持。
• 第三季度战略电力增长资本开支总计1.16亿美元。管理层预计该支出将增至2026年第四季度的2.4亿至2.7亿美元，主要是由于坦普尔（Temple）一期项目开发规模的扩大。
• 季度末现金及现金等价物约为6.2亿美元，总流动性达到12亿美元，增长3.27亿美元（较上一季度）。净债务为14亿美元，净杠杆率为2.4倍。
• BKV目前运营四个碳捕集项目，二氧化碳年化注入量合计约为35万吨。 管理层的目标仍为2028年达到每年150万吨。

核心财务数据

业务与运营表现

上游业务及巴涅特收购

平均产量为 981 MMcfe/d（第三季度）。单位现金成本较前两个季度低 9%，而开发资本支出为 5100 万美元，低于指引区间下限。

BKV 表示，其基础钻井、完井和设施成本保持在约 每水平英尺 525 美元，巩固了其在巴涅特的低成本地位。Yarborough 8H 井的表现持续超出管理层预期，支撑了估算约 114 个上巴涅特井位。更多上巴涅特区块成果预计将于 2027 年年中公布。

巴涅特收购交易于 9 月 15 日完成交割，带来超过 65 MMcfe/d 的产量，其中液体占比超过一半。所收购的资产组合还包括约 350 Bcfe 的证实已开发在产储量、117,000 净英亩、约 1,000 口总作业井，以及 9% 的年递减率。

配套基础设施包括一座天然气处理厂，拥有 180 MMcf/d 的处理能力，约 340英里的天然气集输管线，以及另外225英里的水集输系统。液体产品目前占BKV总产量的20%，并贡献了约30%的天然气、NGL及石油收入（第三季度）。

电力业务开发

BKV旗下在运发电综合设施录得72%的容量因数，同比增长2%，等效可用系数约为96%。电力业务调整后EBITDA总额为3400万美元（在公司管理费用分摊前）。

管理层表示，财务表现未达预期，原因在于尽管电力需求创下历史新高，但新增的太阳能和储能电池容量对ERCOT的高峰电价造成了下行压力。

在坦普尔（Temple）项目上，BKV正与一家领先的前沿人工智能实验室进行独家商业谈判。一项成本补偿协议支持将一期模块化发电容量扩大至400兆瓦。管理层表示，该协议独立于此前宣布的1.77亿美元兜底协议（该协议是与一家投资级超大规模云服务商签署的）。

该400兆瓦开发项目预计将于2027年底开始供电，按约100兆瓦的批次推进，并在2028年实现全面达产。另有200兆瓦的设备旨在为2029至2030年期间预留扩建产能。BKV表示，其已获得首期400兆瓦项目的空气排放许可证。

坦普尔项目的整体规划包括三个阶段：

1. 400兆瓦的模块化“表后”发电装机。
2. 对现有的1.5吉瓦容量的一半签订专用网络合同。
3. 开发Temple 3项目，这是一个与现有电厂规模相仿的新建联合循环燃气轮机项目。

BKV还在评估一个潜在的1.2吉瓦联合循环项目，该项目位于杰克县（Jack County）。管理层表示，坦普尔和杰克县项目在初期均被设计为孤网运行项目，从而在早期阶段减少对电网互联接入的依赖。

碳捕集

Barnett Zero、Cotton Cove和Eagle Ford项目已累计注入约122,000吨二氧化碳（截至第三季度末）。收购巴奈特（Barnett）资产后新增了第四个由其运营的项目，使BKV当前的年化注入运行率达到约350,000吨。

东得克萨斯（East Texas）项目仍按计划于2027年中期投入运营。BKV还在推进与Comstock在东得克萨斯州以及与High West在路易斯安那州的合作项目，两地的VI类井（Class VI）许可证申请目前仍在接受监管审查。

管理层表示，BKV成为首家获得Verra认证的公司，该认证涉及与天然气生产相关碳封存的碳信用额。该公司预计，该认证将为碳封存天然气的潜在销售提供支持，并在45Q税收抵免之外创造额外的利润空间。

管理层业绩指引

BKV更新了其2026年业绩展望以反映对巴奈特（Barnett）资产的收购，目前预计产量将超过1 Bcf/d。管理层表示，除战略性电力投资增加外，其原有的资本开支指引保持不变。

战略性电力增长资本支出预计总额为2026年第四季度为2.4亿至2.7亿美元，主要受扩建后的400兆瓦Temple一期项目带动。

该公司仍将签署Temple购电协议的目标时间定在2026年至2027年初，不过管理层提示称，德克萨斯州政治和监管环境的变化可能会对时间表产生影响。

套期保值方面：

• 约63%的2026年剩余天然气产量已进行套期保值，均价为3.89美元/MMBtu。
• 2027年，BKV已套期保值约472 MMcf/d，其中互换合约价格为4美元/MMBtu，领式期权平均下限接近3.30美元/MMBtu。
• 约20,000桶/日的2027年NGL产量已进行套期保值，综合价格约为28美元/桶。
• 电力业务目前有约700兆瓦已对冲规模用于2026年剩余时间，另有约700兆瓦用于2027年。2027年的头寸完全由火花价差对冲构成。

风险与关注要点

管理层指出，德克萨斯州政治与监管环境的变化是数据中心和电力开发项目潜在的进度风险来源。BKV表示，其初期的离网设计有助于将项目早期执行与电网相关的监管决策隔离开来。

受新增光伏和储能装机的影响，近期ERCOT电价同样承压。管理层认为这属于暂实现象，但承认这导致本季度实际实现的峰值电价有所下降。

在上游业务方面，BKV正面临通胀以及柴油和钢材价格上涨带来的成本压力。该公司计划通过签订期限更长的合同、采用双燃料完井、延长水平井段以及发挥运营协同效应来抵消这些压力。

管理层认为近期天然气市场供应充足，并表示2027年远期曲线反映了这一市场环境。若气价进一步走弱，BKV可能会调整投产接网时间、完井进度以及重复压裂作业。

电力业务增长计划需要巨额资金。BKV计划利用经营活动现金流、合作伙伴出资、设备融资以及项目级融资，同时力求在建设期对电力相关债务进行风险隔离。

分析师问答环节要点

管理层表示，电力项目的商业谈判主要集中在三个方面：详细技术设计、商业条款，以及能够适应不同监管结果的合同结构。

BKV预计，在项目逐步过渡到有限电网取电并最终实现全面并网之前，离网发电将起到过渡桥梁作用。管理层表示，这种做法不仅应能避免在初期给用电客户带来负担，同时也保留了日后向电网供电的潜力。

在项目融资方面，BKV仍在考虑采用约70-30或80-20的债务与股权结构，具体取决于市场情况。在PPA最终敲定并落实项目融资后，管理层预计，公司此前投入的超出最终股权要求的前期权益出资将获得返还。

管理层表示，PPA定价谈判是基于新建发电机组的成本及必要回报率，而非当前的ERCOT远期电价。管理层还指出，碳抵消对某些潜在客户而言非常重要，但对其他客户来说相关性较低。

BKV正评估通过潜在的上游资产变现，以及为已去风险化的电力项目引入更多合作伙伴资本，来优化其投资组合。管理层表示，这些举措可为公司的增长计划提供更多资金支持。

业绩电话会完整实录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BKV's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

[Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Michael Hall, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Michael Hall

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining BKV Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

With me today are Chris Kalnin, Chief Executive Officer; Eric Jacobsen, President of Upstream; and David Tameron, Chief Financial Officer.

Before we provide our prepared remarks, I would like to remind all participants that our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions.

Actual results could differ materially from those in any forward-looking statements, including those associated with the integration of our recently acquired Barnett Shale assets, our financing activities, and the timing and terms of any power purchase agreements.

In addition, we may refer to non-GAAP measures.

For a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures, please see the company's public filings, including the Form 8-K filed today, which is available on our website.

I would also point listeners to the updated investor presentation posted this morning on our Investor Relations website.

We encourage everyone listening to review those slides and our forthcoming quarterly report on Form 10-Q to be filed with the SEC for further information on our results for the quarter and the details of our updated 2026 guidance.

I'd now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Chris Kalnin.

Christopher Kalnin

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by putting our results and outlook in the context of the tremendous opportunity we see ahead for the energy industry.

Energy has always been fundamental to driving economic growth, and I believe we are entering one of the most exciting periods in our industry.

From the rapid advancement of AI, the growth in LNG, and the continued expansion of our economy, the need for reliable around-the-clock energy has never been more important.

We have strong conviction in the durability of AI-driven power demand and believe we are at the beginning of a sustained power growth supercycle. In fact, we believe electricity demand in ERCOT could more than double over the next decade, creating significant opportunities for companies like BKV.

Of course, this opportunity comes with real challenges, including commodity price volatility, inflation, regulatory uncertainty, and significant capital needs. We've been deliberate in building BKV to navigate these dynamics.

Our strong hedge book, low decline production base, and disciplined approach to financing provide the cash flow and financial flexibility to pursue our growth opportunities with confidence.

And that brings me to our third quarter, where we continue to deliver solid operational results, advance our strategic growth initiatives, and take meaningful steps to position BKV for the next phase of growth across our closed-loop business model.

Turning to our power business. Demand for reliable electricity continues to accelerate. Texas remains an attractive market for investment, and we believe the need for additional dispatchable generation creates an excellent opportunity for BKV to deliver the power that Texas needs.

Following this week's elections, we recognize that Texas' political and regulatory environment will continue to evolve, particularly as the state considers frameworks to accommodate large load growth from data centers with input from newly elected officials and local communities.

Ultimately, we are confident that Texas remains pro-business. BKV will continue to proactively engage with community, legislative, and regulatory stakeholders.

We are committed to responsible power development that strengthens grid reliability, supports economic growth, and reflects the priorities of the communities where we operate.

Our integrated offering is why customers are engaging with us. We offer advanced time-to-power from an existing operating site with equipment secured, EPC agreements, and air permits in hand.

We bring fuel and infrastructure certainty through our own gas, midstream, water, and decarbonization options, so customers aren't depending on a chain of third parties for their most critical inputs.

As their load ramps, our existing combined cycle plants provide a path to highly reliable, efficient grid-connected supply.

These advantages have enabled us to share development capital risk with potential customers as we pursue contracts with the duration and credit quality required to support project financing and attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Today, we are announcing substantial progress in our Tempel Energy complex. We are in exclusive commercial negotiations with a leading frontier AI lab for the delivery of power and associated infrastructure.

Alongside that exclusivity, our power JV has entered into a cost reimbursement agreement, or CRA, with the intended offtaker, supporting an increase in planned modular generation in Temple to 400 megawatts from 200 megawatts.

The CRA allows us to maintain our development schedule and speed to power while advancing commercial discussions towards a long-term PPA. Details of the CRA are provided in our quarterly press release.

The CRA is separate from and in addition to the previously announced backstop agreement for $177 million with an investment-grade hyperscaler. Based on our current commercial momentum, we continue to target our original time frame for executing a PPA within 2026 to early 2027.

At the same time, we recognize that the new political and regulatory backdrop following this week's election could shift our targeted timelines. We will continue to monitor the situation and work closely with our potential customers towards the optimal outcome.

To remind you, at Temple, we have a 3-phase development plan designed to leverage and expand our existing infrastructure.

The first phase is modular behind-the-meter generation, now targeting 400 megawatts at the counterparty's request, with the potential to begin delivering power as early as late 2027 and into 2028.

Phase 2 includes contracting half of our existing 1.5 gigawatts within a private use network or PON to support data center campus expansion. This is a capital-efficient way to contract additional generation on the back of commercial and regulatory agreements.

Phase 3 is building Tempel 3, which would add a third CCGT of similar size and scale to our existing plants. These 3 phases represent a significant opportunity to expand the scale and earnings potential of the Tempel Energy complex.

Beyond Tempel, we continue to evaluate development opportunities at our prospective Jack County site. Our recently announced backstop agreement with an investment-grade hyperscaler represents tangible commercial progress toward a potential 1.2 gigawatt combined cycle project.

We believe the site offers an opportunity to leverage BKV's natural gas, midstream water, and carbon capture capabilities as commercial discussions and development planning advance.

Together, we believe Tempel and Jack County give us a controllable path to grow our power business, supported by our existing equipment supply agreements and commercial momentum.

Ultimately, these projects are about capturing higher margins across the natural gas value chain, backed by long-term power contracts with high-quality counterparties that have the potential to materially enhance BKV's EBITDA.

In Upstream, we delivered another quarter of production above the top end of guidance with operating cost and development capital at or below the low end of our guidance ranges.

Our results in the Barnett continue to demonstrate the strength of our approach in mid-tenured basins, and our recent acquisition is the latest proof point.

We recently expanded our position through the addition of approximately 65 million cubic feet per day equivalent of liquids-rich production. This transaction takes production to over 1 Bcfe per day, along with adding reserves, midstream infrastructure, and an operated carbon capture project.

We believe this model can scale attractively, and we are actively exploring additional expansion and portfolio optimization opportunities.

In carbon capture, we now have 4 operating projects, including the Buy project added through the acquisition, and a clear line of sight to ramping our current CO2 injection run rate of approximately 350,000 tons to our target of 1.5 million tons per year of injection in 2028.

As the platform scales, we believe CCUS can become a self-funding business that makes a meaningful contribution to BKV's financial performance, positioning the company as a low-carbon provider of around-the-clock dispatchable energy.

Finally, I'm extremely pleased to share that BKV has become the first company to receive certification of carbon credits for carbon sequestration associated with natural gas production. This certification came from Verra, an established and renowned carbon credit certification organization.

The certification, combined with our recent MSCI AA rating, positions BKV as a leader in low-carbon around-the-clock energy solutions and enables us to create additional margin, for example, through the sale of carbon-sequestered gas or CSG.

As we scale, we're building on a strong cash-generating foundation and investing in opportunities that expand margins, reduce earnings volatility, and extend the duration and credit quality of our cash flows.

With that, I'll turn it over to our President of Upstream, Eric Jacobsen.

Eric Jacobsen

Thanks, Chris. The third quarter was another incredibly strong quarter for our upstream and midstream business. We delivered production of 981 million cubic feet equivalent per day, above the top end of our baseline guidance range.

Our existing assets performed above the high end of guidance, and the acquisition contributed approximately 2 weeks of production during the quarter.

Cost performance was equally strong, with cash unit costs now 9% below the prior 2 quarters and development capital of $51 million coming in below the low end of guidance. We continue to deliver more with less capital.

Across our existing asset base, we remain on track to meet or exceed our already raised full-year production target, driven by our continued production optimization efforts, exceptional development delivery, and AI-driven analytics.

On the development capital front, our base drilling completions and facilities cost of approximately $525 per lateral foot continues to position BKV's Barnett operations as the lowest cost in major U.S. shale gas plays.

And while we're starting to see some cost pressure on D&C from macro inflation and higher diesel and steel prices, we expect to offset these increases through proactive cost management, including locking in longer-term contracts, rolling out dual fuel completions, even longer laterals, and further operational synergies.

We also continue to see sustained results from our Upper Barnett program. The Yarborough 8H continues to perform well above expectations and supports an inventory of approximately 114 Upper Barnett locations and further reinforces our confidence in the quality and scale of this opportunity.

We expect to have additional Upper Barnett results in mid-2027, which will further delineate this attractive development runway within our existing operating footprint.

Our strong production base, tremendous runway of development inventory, and the newly acquired assets provide a stable foundation for continued cash flow generation into 2027.

Before turning to the acquisition, a word on how we're thinking about 2027. Near term, the gas market looks well supplied. Record demand is being met by new supply, and the 2027 strip reflects that.

We see a larger step-up in demand from LNG and power arriving late in 2027 and into 2028.

Our business is built to perform in exactly this kind of year. With our peer-leading low base decline, we can sustain our production with a low reinvestment rate, and our 2027 hedge position protects the cash flow that funds it.

That same low decline, coupled with exceptional and cost-efficient inventory, gives us the flexibility to respond to changing market conditions with limited impact on production.

We also have levers if prices weaken further, including the timing of turn-in lines, completions timing, and refrac pacing. We'll pull these levers when they create value rather than push volume into a weak market. We'll provide our full 2027 outlook with fourth quarter results.

On the Barnett acquisition, we closed on September 15 and added more than 65 million cubic feet equivalent per day of production, more than half of which is liquids, along with approximately 350 billion cubic feet equivalent of PDP reserves, further strengthening our low decline production profile.

The assets include approximately 117,000 net acres, primarily in Montegue County, approximately 1,000 gross operated wells with a 9% annual decline, and significant operated midstream infrastructure, including a gas plant with 180 million cubic feet per day of capacity, approximately 340 miles of gas gathering lines, and an additional 225 miles of water gathering systems.

Importantly, the liquids-rich nature of these assets further diversifies our production mix and enhances our margin opportunity.

Liquids now represent 20% of our total production and contributed approximately 30% of our natural gas NGL and oil revenue in the third quarter.

We're excited about what these assets bring to BKV: more low-decline production, additional reserves, greater liquids exposure, and an expanded midstream footprint. They also create meaningful opportunities to apply BKV's operating playbook, grow margins, and unlock value from the Barnett.

We look forward to further assessing the inventory development opportunities within this acreage as well.

We have a strong acquisition track record. With the scale, capabilities, and technology we built in the Barnett, we expect to realize significant torque or incremental value above our underwriting assumptions, as we have done with our previous Barnett acquisitions.

On acquisition operating costs, we expect LOE to increase modestly in the near term as we integrate the assets with a goal of bringing LOE towards the low 50s per Mcfe range over time.

We also expect the acquisition to have a slightly favorable impact on GCPT with the addition of Owned Midstream.

We will apply the same disciplined operating approach that has driven meaningful cost improvements across our existing Barnett operations while leveraging the acquired midstream infrastructure to capture more margin per unit of production.

Turning to carbon capture. Barnett Zero, Cott on Cove, and Eagle Ford are all injecting CO2 and generating 45Q tax credits. Combined, these projects have injected approximately 122,000 tons of CO2 through the end of the third quarter.

The Barnett acquisition also adds a fourth operated carbon capture project to our growing portfolio. The [Buy] project captured more than 100,000 metric tons of CO2 over the preceding 12 months through the first quarter of 2026, and we are now integrating it into our operating model.

With these 4 operating projects, we now have a portfolio injecting approximately 350,000 tons of CO2 per year, providing a meaningful and growing foundation of CO2 sequestration and 45Q tax credit generation. And we're continuing to build on that foundation.

Our East Texas project remains on track to begin operations in mid-2027, adding a fifth injecting project to the scaling portfolio.

We're also advancing our development projects with Comstock in East Texas and High West in Louisiana, where Class VI permit applications continue through regulatory review.

Together, our operating assets and advancing development pipeline keep us firmly on track towards our target of 1.5 million tons per year of CO2 injection in 2028.

Stepping back, the common thread across our upstream, midstream, marketing, and carbon capture businesses is capturing more value from every molecule we produce, not simply producing more molecules.

The third quarter was our first full quarter marketing all our own natural gas.

That gives us direct control over where and how our production is sold and lets us retain economics we previously paid to third parties.

Our owned gathering and processing, now including the plant we just acquired, captures midstream margin on our own volumes.

Our power projects are designed to run on BKV-produced gas, creating a long-term in-house customer.

And with Verra verification, we can now deliver carbon-sequestering gas, a first-of-its-kind carbon-neutral natural gas product to customers with the carbon value-adding margin beyond our 45Q tax credits. Each of these adds margin on top of the base commodity price.

Together, they're how our closed-loop strategy shows up in realized economics, and we look forward to sharing more of that progress as we move into 2027.

With that, I will turn the call over to our CFO, David Tameron.

David Tameron

Thank you, Eric. Before turning to consolidated financials, let me begin with power. Pemol delivered another strong quarter of reliable operational performance.

Capacity factor reached 72%, up 2% year-over-year, with an equivalent availability factor of approximately 96%, reflecting continued disciplined execution at the complex.

Gross power-adjusted EBITDA was $34 million before corporate expense allocations. Financial results fell short of expectations as continued solar and battery storage additions weighed on peak pricing realizations despite record ERCOT demand.

Near-term pricing doesn't change our long-term view. If anything, it reinforces the value of the long-term contracts we're pursuing. Power's strategic growth program continues to advance in response to strong potential customer demand, with capital deployment accelerating.

During the quarter, we invested approximately $116 million of strategic growth capital. This was below our expected range as certain planned expenditures shifted into the fourth quarter.

We now expect fourth-quarter spending of approximately $240 million to $270 million. The increase is largely driven by our new 400-megawatt Phase 1 development at Temple and is directly tied to counterparty demand.

This spending supports 2 independent commercial processes at Temple and Jack County, and in both cases, commercial agreements with our counterparties limit our capital at risk.

Turning to consolidated financial results. We reported adjusted EBITDAX of $133 million compared with $101 million in the third quarter last year. Adjusted net income attributable to BKV was $40 million or $0.36 per diluted share.

Total capital expenditures were approximately $187 million versus the midpoint of guidance of $245 million.

Power-related capital was $116 million, while upstream, midstream, CCUS, and corporate capital totaled $71 million. Both of these were below our expected midpoint.

Adjusted free cash flow was approximately $31 million, excluding strategic power growth capital. This brings year-to-date free cash flow before strategic power capital expenditures to over $91 million.

Turning to our balance sheet. It remains strong and well positioned to support our strategic growth initiatives. We have built substantial liquidity to support our targeted 2027 power build-out and to execute against the timelines that matter to prospective customers.

At quarter-end, we had approximately $620 million of cash and cash equivalents and total liquidity of approximately $1.2 billion, which is $327 million higher than last quarter-end.

Net debt was $1.4 billion and net leverage was 2.4x. During the quarter, we further strengthened our liquidity through several actions.

First, we completed an upsized offering of 1.625% convertible notes, raising $575 million. The associated capped call transaction is designed to mitigate dilution until our stock reaches approximately $48 per share.

The proceeds funded the Bard acquisition, enhanced liquidity, and positioned us to retire the Power JV shareholder loan as planned.

Second, we entered into an equipment financing arrangement for the initial 200 megawatts of modular engines, providing up to $160 million of financing and further supporting near-term liquidity.

Third, BPP U.S. contributed approximately $65 million during the quarter. For the remainder of the year, we expect an additional $80 million to $100 million of partner contributions, with the large majority expected to help fund the phase development at Temple.

I also want to be clear about how we're approaching capital allocation through our anticipated power build. Our first priority is funding the upstream program that sustains production and cash flow, supported by our hedge book.

Second is protecting the balance sheet. We intend to keep net leverage at levels appropriate for each of our business units, with power-related project finance ring-fenced through construction.

Third is investing in growth only where commercial protection is in place, as with the cost reimbursement agreement Chris described in our previously announced hyperscaler backstop on our CCGT equipment through March 31, 2027.

We evaluate every growth dollar, including power, through a lens of returns, not just EBITDA.

We'll fund that growth with a mix of operating cash flow, partner capital, equipment financing, and project-level structures designed to limit dilution. Turning to hedging. In our upstream business, we have approximately 63% of our remaining 2026 natural gas production hedged at an average price of $3.89 per MMBtu.

For 2027, we have hedged approximately 472 million a day through swaps at $4 per MMBtu and collars with average floors of approximately $3.30 per MMBtu. We have also hedged roughly 20,000 barrels a day of 2027 NGL volumes at a blended price of approximately $28 per barrel.

In power, we have 700 megawatts hedged for the remainder of 2026 and approximately 700 megawatts for 2027. Our 2027 hedges consist entirely of spark spread hedges.

Finally, we have updated our guidance to reflect the acquisition and our latest outlook.

We now expect production to exceed 1 Bcf a day, a meaningful milestone for BKV, while maintaining our original capital guidance other than the increase in the anticipated strategic power capital investment discussed earlier.

For full details, please see the guidance table in today's earnings release and investor presentation.

With that, I will turn the call back over to Chris.

Christopher Kalnin

Thank you, David. Before we turn to questions, I want to put the progress of the last 24 months into perspective.

Since becoming a public company just over 2 years ago, we have grown our upstream production from approximately 760 million cubic feet equivalent per day to over 1 Bcfe per day.

In carbon capture, we have grown from a single project, Barnet Zero, injecting approximately 140,000 tons of CO2 annually to a portfolio of 4 projects injecting CO2 at an injection rate of approximately 350,000 tons annually and scaling rapidly.

And in power, we have moved from owning 750 megawatts of equity generation capacity to over 1.1 gigawatts while making tangible commercial progress that positions us for meaningful organic growth in the years ahead.

That's significant, measurable progress across each of our business lines in just 2 years and a clear demonstration of our ability to execute and scale our closed-loop strategy.

What continues to excite me is the opportunity still ahead. We've built a differentiated energy platform with multiple avenues for growth, a disciplined approach to capital allocation, backed by strong demand fundamentals.

And we're confident in our ability to execute and build on this momentum, creating long-term value for our shareholders.

Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Gabe Daoud with Truist.

分析师问答

Gabe Daoud

I was hoping we could maybe just start with the events this week and a Blue Wave and the change in leadership there in Texas.

I was curious if maybe there's anything you could point to on the regulatory front, maybe ease some of the concerns out there from a timeline standpoint. It seems like everything is on track, but I'd love to maybe just discuss that or unpack that a little bit more.

Christopher Kalnin

Gabe, it's Chris here. Thanks. Great question. Obviously, we've been watching the situation in Texas very closely. I think, first of all, congratulations to the returning and the new folks that got elected this cycle.

I think if you look at what the dialogue has been around Texas, I think it's about balancing the need for growth and ensuring that Texas continues to be pro-business friendly while ensuring that the communities and the stakeholders involved are not disadvantaged.

And so I think with the governor-elect, Ms. Hinahulosa, I think you see this theme around ensuring that there is responsibility in how you develop these data center projects in particular.

And the good news is, I think the BKV strategy around engaging the community, dealing with water, local concerns, ensuring sound mitigation, ensuring bringing your own generation to the grid- all those things fit exactly what the governor-elect is looking for in these types of projects.

And the vast majority of the tax income stream actually goes to the school systems, which is near and dear to the heart of the governor-elect as well.

So, we think what's going to happen is there's going to be a high grading of projects; projects that addressed and have been holistic in their thinking around community impact and have balanced those considerations are going to be high graded, and those are the projects that are going to get blessed, and projects that are not considering those things are going to get slowed down.

So, I think it is a reckoning. I think Texas remains incredibly pro-business. So we're very excited about being there. But I think it's an exciting time for BKV because of our environmental credentials, our community credentials, and the projects that we're architecting exactly fit what the governor-elect is looking for.

Gabe Daoud

Maybe as a follow-up, maybe you can just articulate some of the outstanding items as you continue to progress commercial discussions with, I guess, a couple of different counterparties now.

And I guess, it seems like there's a race between 2. Just any color again around what could maybe materialize first between the 2?

Christopher Kalnin

So there's, I would say, Gabe, it's a good question. There are 3 dimensions that we are in the final stretch on. I think the first is the technical designs.

I think people take for granted how complicated these technical solutions are for developing power for data centers.

Everything from what is the heat rates that you're guaranteeing to what are the load ramps you're serving and how much backup power that you need to do in an island to design, for example, all have to be spelled out in excruciating detail.

And so there are just 1,000 technical design decisions that go into these projects that have to get documented and outlined.

The second is, of course, the commercial terms: everything from credit to who pays what damages if things go wrong, events that are not expected, who's at fault for what.

So think of, like, a large LNG deal: there are 1,000 gotchas you have to work through, and you have to think through various scenarios.

And then the third thing is just getting the commercial arrangements to accommodate a variety of regulatory scenarios. As we've talked about, we're in a situation where the regulatory environment continues to be dynamic.

And so as you contemplate that, you have to build into your agreements a decision tree of things that allow you to meet your time-to-power deadlines in a number of scenarios that could play out on the regulatory front.

So with those 3 things, I think again, these are things that we've been working on for the last several months. They're not new. But as I said, they just take time, effort, and compromise to get to the finish line.

Gabe Daoud

Certainly not going the timeline early 1Q '27, right, Chris?

Christopher Kalnin

As I said, we continue to target that timeline '26 to early '27. But we've also said at the same time, you've got to recognize that we've had a pretty significant political shift. We'll watch that.

But I think we're optimistic, and we're working with our customers to continue that execution timeline.

Operator

Our next question comes from Betty Jiang with Barclays.

Wei Jiang

First of all, congratulations on all the commercial progress that you've been making in a fairly short period. But following up on its question earlier about the political shift.

Chris, you mentioned islanded design earlier. Do you think this shift could move customer demand more towards behind-the-meter islanded design, as you mentioned?

And do you think that affects the progress for Temple and Jack County projects differently?

Christopher Kalnin

Yes. Betty, good to hear from you. It's a great question. Look, I think we've always been saying, and you'll be familiar with this, that long-term, you want to be grid-connected.

And so I think the islanded projects, the behind-the-meter setup, is a stepping stone to allow regulation and grids to catch up to where the demand and the power growth is coming from.

So think of it like a bridging solution. And our projects in both Jack and in Temple contemplate that. And particularly, what we have in our design, Betty, we start with an islanded solution, which then is completely agnostic of what's happening on the grid.

And that doesn't put any burden on ratepayers, and we've designed these projects not only to be not grid-connected initially, but to be investing immediately into the communities that we're involved in and incredibly responsible with the standards that BKV adheres to in all our businesses.

The second phase then is you get some level of grid connection, and you create an asymmetric relationship with the grid where you're able to dispatch more power into the grid than you're actually drawing. That's called a withdrawal-limiting point.

And so that structure in our minds is ultimately how you add additional dispatchable generation to the grid, protect the ratepayers from bearing the cost of the infrastructure while still enabling this additional generation that's been deployed to benefit broader society.

So that's the second stage. The third stage then is the grid ultimately upgrades to the levels we need over time, which it has to. The grid has not really been upgraded for 20 years.

So we're playing a degree of catch-up similar to our infrastructure and roads and rail and airports, et cetera. So the grid is just behind.

And so once the grid is fully upgraded- 765 kV lines, et cetera- then you fully connect everything. And you have a much more distributed and much more resilient energy system.

So we think it happens in 3 phases. BKV is leading the edge in all 3. And as you correctly pointed out, we're starting with what we think is the right answer, which is initially islanded in both projects and then rolling into withdrawal and then ultimately grid-connected.

Wei Jiang

So if I can follow that, though, given the regulatory change, is it fair to say that Phase 1 will still move forward no matter what's changing on the regulatory front, and you might just end up staying in that island Phase 1 phase for longer on both projects?

Christopher Kalnin

Yes. I think that's a fair assumption, Betty, because the islanded solution doesn't touch the grid. So the impact to ratepayers is not at all initially, at least.

So, to your point, having islanded solutions in our minds is a way to decouple what's going on regulatory-wise with the need for power for these leading AI frontier labs and hyperscalers. So, this is our solution that we're developing.

Again, we're working jointly with these potential customers in designing this, and this is where their headspace is at as well. So I think you're spot on that initially for the next few years, this is going to be the way that we see power built out here in the U.S. in the majority.

Wei Jiang

For my follow-up, if I can ask about just about the equity funding and how you think about as these projects progress, maybe walking through financing the equity component of this build-out.

I know there are intricacies with the interplay of when the equity capital needs to go out, when you can get financing for equipment and project financing, as well as the reimbursement from JV partners. So maybe just walk us through that process.

David Tameron

Yes. Betty, it's David. I'm going to answer your question a little more. So let me just cover the whole snapshot as I see it today.

And remember, you know this, but we've consistently financed growth with discipline. That we've done that not only since we've been public, but pre-public. That's going to continue going forward.

We're going to align that capital deployment with the commercial opportunities and obviously do that while keeping in mind shareholder returns and the balance sheet.

But just think about '27; let's talk about that first, and then I can answer a little more about the equity piece as far as it relates to project finance. So right now, if you look at what we've done, just take the annualized number for 2026.

If you annualize that on a leverage operating cash flow number, that's about $450 million. I mentioned liquidity in my script: $1.2 billion of liquidity within that is $630 million, $35 million, actually, of cash.

So you think about going into '27, you have $450 million of projected operating cash flow on an annualized basis, what we've done this year, another $600 million plus, you're at $1.1 billion, right, just as you move into '27.

Equipment financing, we talked about that. We had $160 million of equipment financing to finance that first 200 modular, and we have more opportunity to expand that.

We talked about partner capital. We mentioned in the release, $80 million to $100 million of partner capital expected in the fourth quarter.

Obviously, 25% of that is related to the power JV; that's 25% DP U.S., a partner there, and then we have the partner, as you know, on the CIP side.

And then finally, let me just talk about the capital stack. And this was alluded to, but where we are at today versus at least what we've announced today versus where we were at 3 months ago, you think about what's happened and strengthening that material, that commercial stack: the commercial support over $500 million of backstop, $200 million related to the CCGT that we talked about, the hyperscaler, another $374 million that we announced this morning.

So, significant commercial support there. So finally, to get to your question, with that as a backdrop, when we enter into the project financing, and again, we still expect to do that 70-30, 80-20, depending on the market, depending on what we choose to do there.

But think about that in those terms. When we announce them and get the project finance, once- for instance, let me talk about the Temple complex, and I'll just use that as an example. We have put in the equity upfront, as you know.

Once we go out to project finance, once we finalize a PPA, then we will be reimbursed for the amount of equity above that 30%. So there will be additional equity coming in from that once we announce that project financing. Does that make sense?

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Baker with Evercore ISI.

Christopher Baker

I would love to hear a little bit more about just how the modular timeline is laid out from here.

Obviously, with the release, the step-up from 200 to 400, and then it looks like you have 600 on order. Can you just square that up with their permits and sort of what the rough timeline looks like from here?

Christopher Kalnin

Chris, good to hear from you. Listen, when it comes to the modular Phase 1 at Temple, remember, this is under the JV.

So, 75% us, 25% Bun Power. The way we're thinking about it, as we shared, is late '27, you get energization. You can think of the 400 megawatts in equal tranches.

So you can imagine an initial quarter of that coming online, and then you've got a series of quarters of that. So it comes on in quarters. It's like 100 megawatts per tranche. And you can imagine that rolling into '28. So within '28, you're fully ramped.

And then the extra 200, as you can imagine, these modular units are matched to the load profiles of these potential customers, the data centers. So as they build out their campuses, there's a lot of rationale to continue to add additional buildings.

And so you've got to preserve that ability to bring on additional power. And so the additional 200 gives you the ability to bring on additional power '29- '30 time frame.

So that load ramp fits very nicely with how the customers like to ramp their data centers if you think about, like, a data hall or 2 bringing on 100, 200 megawatts at a piece, that fits very nicely.

And so that's why we've gone ahead and preemptively procured that to make sure that as the customers grow, we can grow into their power needs alongside them and maintain that platform that we're building here.

And on the air permits, Chris, just on the air permits, we already have the 400-megawatt air permits approved. So that's already in hand.

Christopher Baker

And then just love to get an update as to how you're thinking about the economics with the subsequent orders.

Are these all the same resets that we've talked about in the past, and just how to frame that up for folks as we look at the next steps here?

Christopher Kalnin

Exactly. Everything we're doing is modular in design. So it's rinse and repeat, scalable, same exact equipment at every level, so we can build redundant spares. We can swap things out. We can create resiliency.

Remember, initially, this is an islanded mode. So you want to create as much economies of scale, economies of scope as possible.

So everything is going to be identical design, flat, all in proximity to the Temple Energy complex, leveraging the mechanics, the water, the platform we already have operating the 1.5 gigawatts already operating at Temple with incredible staff that operates there around the clock.

So all that infrastructure just is additive, and these designs are identical in how we scale so that there's a huge amount of fungibility.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jonathan Mardini with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jonathan Mardini

So you mentioned in your remarks that the batteries and renewables are moderating peak power pricing. Do you see that as a lasting structural shift in the ERCOT power pricing market?

And how may that be influencing the pricing or structure of the PPAs under your discussion?

Christopher Kalnin

Jonathan, good question. So the renewables and batteries are a legacy of the IRA bill. A lot of that was stuff that was planned in the 2020- '21 time frame.

It came on to ERCOT. So you're just seeing an overhang of that build coming online and hitting the market. At the same time, as you know, we've been going through this batch process in ERCOT, where the new demand has been essentially prevented from coming on the grid.

And so you have sort of hundreds of gigawatts of new demand that's been sitting on the sidelines waiting to be connected while you've had this residual IRA-backed solar and battery come on the grid.

So it's really, I would call it, an anomaly, if you will. The reality is the demand is growing, and there's no more dispatchable generation. And really, you don't see the same number of solar and renewable projects coming online anymore because of the change in the regulation.

So what we foresee happening in the next few years, and your point about strip is a good one, and I'll come back to it, is that you don't have any more supply coming online.

And with prices where they are, you certainly aren't going to stimulate any more supply coming online, especially dispatchable. Meanwhile, every year, just organically, Texas power demand has been growing. We had another peak this year. So that sets up for an incredibly exciting merchant market over the next 5 years.

And we're actually very bullish on the curve. I always tell people, if you're willing to sell me several gigawatts of power at today's strip, I'll buy it. But of course, people can't do that.

So the reality is everyone who's looking at additional or incremental large megawatts understands that they have to price that replacement or new generation economics, which is materially above where the curve is.

And so what you're seeing right now is that demand is being held back because of the batch process, and then you've got a hangover, if you will, using a little bit of a crew term of solar supply that's come online.

But that works its way through the system pretty quickly, and then you've got this growth in demand that's coming. And if you don't get dispatchable, that's going to create incredible scarcity of pricing as you get towards the end of this decade, I should say.

Jonathan Mardini

I appreciate that insight could be transitory as demand ramps. As part of that. So you wouldn't see that dynamic impacting the structure and economics of the PPAs that are under discussion?

Christopher Kalnin

Absolutely not. So the PPA discussions are purely based on the cost and the returns around new generation, and the potential customers understand that.

So you're going to price off new generation economics and then the cost of capital on top of that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Gruber with Citigroup.

Scott Gruber

I want to come back to the Island power project. Chris, you mentioned that you have the air permits required to run the modular capacity.

Does the offtaker have the permits they require to construct and operate the associated data center facilities to keep the project moving forward?

Christopher Kalnin

Scott, good to hear from you. I will not be able to comment on where that potential offtaker is or what they have.

I can tell you that we are absolutely advancing the projects alongside them in a way that puts us in a pole position to have time to power. The permits depend on what you're talking about.

And what I can say is our location, where we've sited these projects, and our relationship with the county, with the local stakeholders, is incredibly strong.

The progress we've made on designs, everything that you can contemplate that is needed for these projects is being pursued or thought through very quickly and carefully.

And so, I can't comment for the potential customer, but the feedback we've received is that this project is one of the highlights of where they want to deploy their next potential batch of chips in 2027.

So I'm trying to answer your question indirectly, but you can imagine that their project has a lot of what they need to be able to advance with us at this pace.

Scott Gruber

And I know it's tough to speak on their behalf, but I just wanted to get the color around the timing risk here. So I appreciate your comments.

And then my follow-up is: you're progressing conversations with multiple counterparties on the power side.

Has your ability to sell offset credits impacted those discussions? Has that been a factor? Or are we really still focused on time to first power and just securing the generation capacity over the long run?

Christopher Kalnin

Scott. Look, when it comes to credit, obviously, we're hyper-focused on that, no pun intended.

In terms of the credit quality, I can say that the way we're structuring this- and David, you should comment here- it's going to be very financeable.

I think both sides understand that for these projects to really be executed, you have to have the project financing capability. That's the whole point of the PPA structure to some degree. And so it is a central point of our discussions. But David, maybe you can comment on that.

David Tameron

Scott, it's a good question. Look, there's a model out there for doing this. You've seen that from some of the projects that have been announced, and I would expect us to follow the same model as well.

So obviously, credit is important. As we see the scenario today, we have complete confidence that we can get this project financed, and I'll just leave it at that.

Scott Gruber

I may not have been clear. I was actually referring to your ability to sell the carbon offset credits and whether that's impacting the commercial discussions and attracting customers to your projects.

Christopher Kalnin

Sorry, Scott, we misunderstood you there. In terms of the carbon offsets, I would say it depends on the customer.

One of the potential customers is very focused on that. It is a central part of the thesis. The other customer is pretty agnostic to it; another potential customer, again.

So it really depends on the customer. But I would say for certain customers, it is absolutely critical. And the fact that we have Verra certification on these carbon offsets is a huge milestone, and it really brings substantial credibility.

So we're optimistic that for a subset of our core targeted customers, they're going to absolutely value this, and we're going to create a premium offer.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our next question comes from Jacob Roberts with TPH Research.

Jacob Roberts

I wanted to ask about the power side of things. I think you responded earlier to a question about kind of the pipeline of solar and battery and the impact of you guys seeing that rolling off.

But I'm just curious: is the function of your hedge book to protect against that in the near term? And then how should we think about the hedge book longer dated beyond kind of what we see through 2027 at this point?

Christopher Kalnin

Jake. So the hedge book typically is a rolling 1-year sort of hedge book on the power side.

Generally, what we try to do is cover our fixed costs, so when you think about just basic operating costs, G&A, financing, et cetera, the strategy is very much about just ensuring the coverage of that cost and then maintaining optionality to participate in the scarcity pricing of ERCOT.

So it's less about trying to be very acute with picking the curve and more about just getting predictability in the base cash flows that are needed to cover the fixed cost of the operating business.

As you look out in time, as I mentioned, the curve in our minds gets very bullish, not the current strip, but where the fundamentals point, and I think there are a lot of analyst reports that support that.

And so we're going to be looking to more optimistically evaluate the potential to hedge into those markets in the future.

As it is right now, I think it's very much just about protecting fixed costs and doing that on a rolling annual basis. And so that's how we've done it. Yes.

David Tameron

And Jake, the only thing I would add is it's David. Obviously, as we contemplate a PPA, right, that's effectively a natural hedge, right? So we'll have to adjust our hedging position appropriately.

But as we talked about, the model is moving from a commodity-based model to more stable long-duration cash flows. So as we do that, we'll reevaluate. But yes. To Chris' point, we'll protect the capital program in the meantime.

Jacob Roberts

And I joined late, so I apologize if you covered this, Chris, but I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks some portfolio optimization opportunities. I was wondering if you could just expand on that a bit.

Christopher Kalnin

So if you look at our portfolio, and we've talked about this, there are definitely areas that we can continue to optimize.

We're looking at, certainly on the upstream side, I think there are opportunities for us to monetize, and we've seen some of the private market transactions out there that seem to have pretty attractive metrics.

And so that would be a very nice source of potential funding if we decided to go that route; we'll be inquisitive, and we'll be open to inbound as well as opportunities there. So I think that's one dimension that will remain inquisitive.

I think David hinted at the partner capital that we have; obviously, as we scale the power business and derisk these projects, the ability to bring in partner capital at a premium is going to be another area that's going to optimize our portfolio and give us the ability to capture some value along the way and continue to fund the business accretively.

So I would say those are probably the 2 primary. And then on the carbon capture business, we've got a great partnership with CIP, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners.

They continue to be a 49% partner in all those projects and are very excited about our future there. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session.

Operator

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Chris Kalnin for closing comments.

Christopher Kalnin

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for your interest in BKV. I remain very excited about our future.

I think there are many exciting developments, and we appreciate your interest and your faith in our company, and we look forward to future announcements. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.