Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会:创纪录的EBITDA与重申业绩指引
Gold Royalty Corp.公布2026年第三季度总营收、土地协议收益及利息收入达1150万美元,归属权益产量为2689个GEO。调整后EBITDA达900万美元,创历史新高。期末现金约2100万美元,无债务,信贷额度未提取。管理层重申2026年全年产量指引为7500至9300个GEO,并预计到2030年年产量将增至28000至34000个GEO。
核心要点
- Gold Royalty Corp.公布2026年第三季度总营收、土地协议收益及利息收入达1150万美元,归属于该公司的黄金等价盎司(GEO)为2689盎司。
- 调整后EBITDA达到创纪录的900万美元,较2025年第三季度的250万美元增长逾两倍,较2026年第二季度增长约60%。
- 截至第三季度末,公司拥有约2100万美元的现金及现金等价物,无债务,且1.5亿美元的信贷额度完全未提取。
- 今年迄今产量达到6366个GEO。管理层重申2026年全年产量指引为7500至9300个GEO,并表示若实现金价理想且无重大运营中断,产量有望达到指引区间的上限。
- 基于投资组合内现有资产,管理层预计到2030年,该资产组合的年产量将达到28000至34000个GEO,约为公司2025年实际业绩的六倍。
- 董事会正在评估资本回报政策,而管理层则继续优先考虑有纪律性且能增厚收益的收购交易。
核心财务数据
| 指标 | 2026年第三季度 | 变动情况或背景 |
|---|---|---|
| 总营收、土地协议收益及利息收入 | 1150万美元 | 创单季度历史新高 |
| 归属权益产量 | 2689个GEO | 较2026年第二季度增长50%以上 |
| 调整后EBITDA | 900万美元 | 达到2025年第三季度的3倍以上;较2026年第二季度增长约60% |
| 2025年第三季度调整后EBITDA | 250万美元 | 上年同期对比 |
| 现金及现金等价物 | 约2100万美元 | 高于2026年初的1200万美元 |
| 债务 | 0美元 | 1.5亿美元信贷额度仍完全未提取 |
| 今年迄今产量 | 6366个GEO | 达到2026年指引中值的76% |
| 第三季度土地协议收益 | 110万美元 | 今年迄今累计达190万美元 |
| 矿业权益维护支出 | 10万美元 | 九个月期间 |
业务与运营表现
Vareš项目已于8月10日实现商业化投产。运营商DPM Metals预计该矿将在2026年底前达到每年85万吨的满负荷处理运行能力。管理层表示,尽管铜品位可能会影响最终收益贡献,但Vareš预计将在2027年成为Gold Royalty最大的收入来源之一。
巴里克与纽蒙特旗下的REN项目预计将于年底前投产。管理层预计REN将在2027年底前达到每年14万盎司的满负荷运行产能。在内华达黄金矿业(Nevada Gold Mines)收回投资资本后,Gold Royalty持有的3.5%净利润权益预计将开始获得收益分成。
特许权生成业务在第三季度贡献了110万美元的土地协议收益。自2021年收购Ely Gold以来,Gold Royalty通过该模式已培育出60项特许权资产,其中4项产生于2026年前九个月。该资产组合目前包含39处涉及土地协议的资产以及6处处于租赁状态的资产。
Gold Royalty还重点提及了投资组合未来的催化因素,包括将Borborema选矿厂年处理能力翻倍至400万吨的研究、更新后的Côté矿山开采计划、Jerritt Canyon重启研究,以及Canadian Malartic旗下Odyssey项目的2号竖井技术评估。
管理层表示,公司的资产负债表实力足以支持规模高达2亿美元的收购,若与Taurus合作还可参与更大规模的交易。然而,在优势矿业管辖区内,对近期具备现金流产生能力资产的竞争拉低了隐含回报率,这进一步强化了管理层严守交易纪律的决心。
管理层业绩指引
Gold Royalty重申其2026年产量指引为7500至9300个GEO。管理层预计第四季度表现强劲,并表示取决于实际实现金价以及运营中是否能避免重大中断,全年产量有望达到该区间的上限。
该指引基于每盎司5150美元的全年金价假设制定。管理层指出,在将土地协议收益、利息以及来自铜和其他金属的收入折算为GEO时,较低的金价反而会增加报告的GEO数量。
对于2030年,基于已收购并完成出资的资产,管理层预计归属权益产量将达到28000至34000个GEO。按中值计算,这约为2025年实际产量的六倍。
关于REN项目,管理层的基准情景是在当前金价水平下,3.5%的净利润权益将于2028年初开始产生收益分红。具体时间仍取决于资本回收进度及黄金价格。
风险及关注领域
波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那宪法法院已针对涉及国有土地的争议(包括Vareš特许经营协议)启动了为期六个月的审查。目前Vareš项目保持正常运营,DPM Metals预计其2026年产量指引不会受到影响,但该法律审查仍是一项不确定因素。
管理层预计,硫磺、柴油、石油衍生品及劳动力成本的通胀将在2027年推高矿山运营商的成本。虽然Gold Royalty主要采用的冶炼净回报(NSR)特许权结构并不直接承受矿山现场的运营成本,但持续的成本压力可能会影响运营商的利润率及投资决策。
土地协议收益本身具有不均衡性。管理层表示,第三季度的贡献高于正常水平,并预计随着时间推移,特许权收益与流转收益在营收结构中所占的比重将逐渐扩大。
并购竞争同样在对潜在回报率产生影响,尤其是对于那些近期拥有稳定现金流、运营商实力雄厚且位于优良管辖区的较大规模资产。
分析师问答环节要点
- 最低现金余额:首席财务官Andrew Gubbels表示,公司并未设定固定的最低限额,但就营运资金需求而言,约1000万美元是一个切合实际且适宜的水平。
- Vareš项目前景:管理层预计2027年全年将以每年85万吨的处理能力运转。受铜品位波动影响,其收益贡献可能与2026年第四季度的期末水平持平或略有超出。
- REN项目付款时间:预计项目很快将实现首批投产,在收回投资资本后,3.5%的净利润权益有望于2028年初开始获得收益支付。
- 特许权生成业务的选择权:管理层以Tonopah West为例。Gold Royalty以约150万美元现金将该项目资产出售给Blackrock Silver,同时保留了3%的特许权。
- 资本配置:董事会正在积极考虑资本回报政策。管理层在积累现金并保持收购灵活性的同时,继续倾向于能增厚业绩的增长。
财报电话会议完整实录
完整财报电话会议逐字稿
管理层陈述
Operator
Welcome to the Gold Royalty Corp. Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to David Garofalo, Chair and CEO. Please go ahead.
David Garofalo
Thank you, operator. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for participating in today's call to review our third quarter 2026 results. Please note, for those not currently on the webcast, a presentation accompanying this conference call is available on the presentation page of our website. Some of the commentary on today's call will include forward-looking statements, and I would direct everyone to review Slide 2 of the presentation, which includes important cautionary notes. All dollar values mentioned in today's call are expressed in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.
Speaking alongside me this morning will be our President, John Griffith; Andrew Gubbels, Chief Financial Officer; and Jackie Przybylowski, Vice President, Capital Markets and Sustainability.
We truly believe that we're in a very strong environment for gold and especially for royalty companies today. The macroeconomic environment, while volatile in the short term, continues to be supportive of strong gold prices. Higher global government spending, deficits and debt, combined with rising costs and concerns about affordability, have the potential to further erode the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and other major global fiat currencies. Rising money supply has historically been strongly correlated to higher gold prices, and we expect this trend will push gold prices higher in 2027 and through the medium term. In this environment, we believe that gold remains well positioned as a store of value and is expected to be driven vastly higher from increased investor and central bank demand.
Inflation will also have a meaningful effect on the capital and operating costs of mine developers and operators. While we have already seen unit costs rise, we believe this will be increasingly topical in 2027 as inputs, including sulfur, diesel and other petroleum-derived products and labor, continue to get more expensive and as hedges, prepurchases and contracts roll over.
We want to emphasize that higher costs will continue to be fully borne by our operating partners. Operators who have enjoyed incredibly strong operating margins over the past few years will likely see these margins eroded somewhat, although we're still confident that the producing mines in our portfolio remain profitable enough to stay in operation and for operators to continue to invest in incremental optimization and improvement projects.
This sets the stage for royalty companies to outperform, Gold Royalty included. Nearly all of our assets are NSR royalties. NSR royalties, or royalties on revenues, are not impacted by mine site operating costs, nor do they have fixed or variable payments back to the operators. In other words, we have no exposure to operating costs or mine profitability. Our structure gives us unmitigated leverage to rising gold prices and our high-quality and diversified asset portfolio means that we can offer this leverage at a lower risk as compared with higher torque gold investment options.
Turning to our results for the quarter. It might sometimes feel like a broken record, but we once again are pleased to report record quarterly results for the third quarter 2026, including adjusted revenue of over $11 million and nearly 2,700 GEOs produced to our account in the quarter, increases of over 40% and over 50%, respectively, from the second quarter 2026. This is a tremendous result for us and really underscores how we have come through the inflection point and are well underway towards exciting growth over the next few quarters and years.
We've truly hit the flywheel phase in our life cycle where we're not only free cash flow positive, but we're generating sufficient cash to build a comfortable cash balance to fund accretive future growth. And we're in a position to consider returning capital to shareholders. Andrew will go through our quarterly financial results in more detail in a few moments.
We also continue to be very optimistic about our outlook on organic growth for the remainder of 2026, as Jackie will discuss shortly, and remain on track to meet or even potentially to exceed our previously disclosed full year production guidance of 7,500 to 9,300 GEOs. John will also lead you through the steady progress we're making in business development.
I'll now pass the call over to our CFO, Andrew Gubbels, to discuss the financial results for the quarter and the year-to-date.
Andrew Gubbels
Thanks, Dave. As Dave mentioned, we are pleased to report new records for revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2026. Total revenue, land agreement proceeds and interest were $11.5 million, translating to 2,689 GEOs in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $9 million, more than tripling from the $2.5 million in the comparable quarter in 2025 and up approximately 60% from Q2 2026.
It wasn't too long ago when Gold Royalty was burning cash to operate its business. Approximately 2 years ago, we pursued a strategy to add revenue-generating royalties and streams to the portfolio while introducing controls to identify and remove redundancies and reduce our cash operating costs. As a result, I'm pleased to say that we have more than tripled our trailing 12-month revenue while maintaining steady cash operating costs over the past 8 quarters. This graph shows the trailing 12-month revenue and G&A at the end of each quarter since the beginning of 2024, rather than quarterly revenue and G&A to illustrate how the company has continued to build its revenue at these consistently stable operating costs.
In an environment of higher fuel prices, declining grades and escalating labor rates, the royalty and streaming business model is expected to look especially attractive as mine operators continue to be affected by these rising costs. Gold Royalty's cash operating margins has not only caught up to but now outperforms its peer group. As the company's cash flows continue to grow at stable operating costs, we expect our margins to keep increasing over time.
Our balance sheet also remains strong. We exit Q3 with approximately $21 million of cash and cash equivalents. That's up from $12 million at the start of the year. We also continue to have no debt and a fully undrawn $150 million credit facility. With a clean balance sheet, we now have the flexibility to freely execute our long-term strategy. Our preference continues to focus on accretive growth, and John will talk about our portfolio growth outlook shortly.
Alongside our growth strategy, we continue to evaluate the optimal time to begin returning capital to shareholders. The capital return policy is actively being considered by our Board of Directors and will be communicated in due course.
I'll now pass the call to John Griffith to review our corporate development activities.
John Griffith
Thanks, Andrew. We have balance sheet and undrawn borrowing capacity to make meaningful acquisitions, potentially as large as $200 million and larger in partnership with Taurus under our cooperation agreement. Competition for larger transactions, especially with near-term cash flow prospects in good jurisdictions and with great operators is negatively impacting implied returns. It is with this backdrop that we've remained disciplined in our pursuit of value-enhancing accretive transactions. That is not to suggest the potential pipeline is not robust. We continue to pursue a significant number of exciting opportunities, and we maintain a deep pipeline of potential transactions to drive growth beyond our already peer-leading organic growth.
We continue to be active on smaller transactions as well, like the two acquisitions we completed in June and July and which we discussed on our August earnings call. In June, we acquired an additional 0.1875% NSR royalty on the REN project operated by Barrick and jointly owned by Barrick and Newmont under the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture for $6.25 million.
And in July, we acquired 2 Nevada royalties in 1 transaction, a 2% NSR on the Sterling property operated by AngloGold Ashanti located south of its Arthur project, previously known as Expanded Silicon. And a 0.5% NSR on portions of Granite Creek operated by i-80 Gold. This Granite Creek royalty covers portions of the Felix and Blue Bell pits, neither of which are included in the proposed mining sequence over the initially envisaged 8.5-year mine life at the Granite Creek open pit as per the March 2025 NI 43-101 PEA study. But these deposits represent longer-term optionality to us.
I wanted to take the opportunity to highlight our royalty generator model led in Nevada by our colleague, Jerry Baughman. We continue to be committed to this important part of our growth strategy. The royalty generator business continues to be profitable to us. It's low cost and brings in upfront revenues that are well in excess of the de minimis costs associated with staking and holding claims. Our adjusted revenues included $1.1 million in land agreement proceeds for the third quarter or $1.9 million for the year-to-date as compared with only $0.1 million spent on maintaining the mineral interests over the 9-month period.
Our low-cost model includes staking land claims, but does not include any expensive exploration or development activity and is centered only around the jurisdiction in which we have deep expertise and a competitive advantage. Not only does this business continue to be profitable for us every year, but it represents tremendous long-term optionality for our shareholders. We've generated 60 royalties through this model since Gold Royalty's acquisition of Ely in 2021, including an additional 4 royalties in the first 3 quarters of 2026.
We currently have 39 properties subject to land agreements and 6 properties under lease generating land agreement proceeds. And as we conduct no exploration on these properties, we can continue to hold our portfolio at very low cost.
I'll now pass the call to Jackie Przybylowski to review our guidance and key catalysts underpinning our peer-leading organic growth.
Jackie Przybylowski
Thanks, John. We have been clear this year that our 2026 production was expected to be 60% weighted to the second half of the year as Vareš and County Line ramp up to their full production run rates and as we could also see production growth at Borden, Côté and Pedra Branca. And while it's not factored into the guidance, the rock mass movement at the Canadian Malartic Barnat pit could bring forward processing and sale of stockpiled material.
We are reiterating our 2026 full year guidance, 7,500 to 9,300 GEOs. Production of 2,689 GEOs in Q3 brings our total production to 6,366 GEOs year-to-date, which is 76% of the midpoint of our guidance range. We were at 44% of the midpoint of our guidance range as of the end of the second quarter. So you can see that we have made up a lot of ground in Q3. We continue to be well on track to achieve the midpoint of our guidance range, and we continue to believe in strong second half production, which includes a strong fourth quarter. Barring any major disruptions and depending on the gold prices realized between now and year-end, we could end the year with production in the higher end of our guidance range.
Just a quick reminder that our 2026 guidance was set at a $5,150 per ounce gold price assumption for the full year. Lower gold prices would work in our favor as conversion of the land agreement proceeds and interest and conversion of revenue from copper and other metals would translate to higher GEO values. Please see our March 18, 2026 press release for a table showing the sensitivity of our guidance to gold prices.
We're excited by this result, not only because it's another record for us on production, adjusted revenue and adjusted EBITDA, but because it reaffirms the even stronger growth in our portfolio over the medium term. As we have previously disclosed, Gold Royalty expects production to grow to 28,000 to 34,000 GEOs by 2030 or approximately 6x our actual 2025 result from assets already fully bought and paid for in our portfolio.
Our extensive portfolio continues to offer exciting news flow and catalysts, and we have a number of exciting updates in our earnings report. I'll just highlight a few on this call that we're expecting in the final quarter of the year. A study to double plant capacity at Aura Minerals' Borborema project to 4 million tonnes per year should be completed shortly. First production at REN, which is jointly owned by Barrick and Newmont, is expected by year-end. An updated mine plan to reflect the integration of IAMGOLD's Côté and Gosselin zones at Côté in Q4. While we don't have any exposure to Gosselin, pushback of the Côté pit wall to accommodate a super pit design could add additional material from our Zones 5 and 7 coverage into the mine plan.
A pre-feasibility level study by First Majestic Silver on Jerritt Canyon restart to be completed in Q4 and the Shaft #2 technical evaluation at Canadian Malartic's Odyssey project to be completed by Agnico Eagle also in the fourth quarter.
We also want to highlight DPM Metals' Vareš mine. As you will recall, Vareš was temporarily closed late last year as the then new owner of DPM Metals optimized the mine. It has restarted and achieved commercial production on August 10, well ahead of the company's target, which was in September. The operator continues to expect that Vareš will achieve its full production run rate of 850,000 tonnes per year by the end of this year. DPM has also noted that it now expects to exceed the high end of its 2026 guidance range on a gold equivalent production basis. We want to congratulate DPM Metals for consistently outperforming on its operating milestones at this world-class silver mine.
On September 30, the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina set a 6-month review related to a constitutional dispute, which has challenged the authority of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina to certain acts regarding state-owned land, including the Vareš concession agreement. This constitutional dispute relates to state-owned forest and land in Bosnia and Herzegovina and forms part of a broader issue affecting a number of large concession-based investments in the country.
We want to emphasize that Vareš continues to operate normally and operator DPM Metals does not expect any impact on its 2026 production guidance as a result of the court's decision. DPM is actively engaging with the relevant authorities to support the 6-month review process to the extent possible. The Vareš operation employs more than 600 people from Bosnia and Herzegovina and is the top exporter in the Zenica-Doboj Canton. But it's important to note that this is a countrywide issue that extends well beyond Vareš and includes numerous other major national and international projects of critical importance.
I'll pass the floor back to Dave for closing remarks.
David Garofalo
Thanks, Jackie. We're so pleased to report another record quarter. Calling this a record quarter understates the magnitude of our achievement this quarter. Our adjusted revenue, including land agreement proceeds and other, was 23% higher than our previous record quarter, and our GEOs were 40% higher than our previous record quarter.
In 2025, we achieved the inflection to a positive free cash flow and our growth has been on a steady march upwards ever since. We expect that our growth will continue. For example, our 2030 guidance assumes roughly 500% or 6x increase at the midpoint from our 2025 actual results. We continue to see compelling upside to our share price as our portfolio assets continue to develop and as the market gives us credit for this organic growth.
Our valuation could be further boosted by accretive growth, but we emphasize that we will remain patient and disciplined as we consider any acquisitions and as we review our capital allocation options going forward. We continue to prioritize accretive growth as always, while building a strong cash treasury, which will enable us to consider a modest capital return as a signal to the market that we will remain disciplined on our growth and that we have matured as a company.
One housekeeping item before we take a question. As you all know, we've ceased our practice of pre-releasing our preliminary revenue results ahead of quarterly earnings. We chose to do this to remove volatility in our results as some of our royalties don't provide information sufficiently ahead of our quarterly reporting. But we will make an exception for the fourth quarter to provide our investors with timely information given the longer delay in our year-end reporting. We plan to pre-release our preliminary Q4 revenue results ahead of full year financial results likely in mid-February.
Thank you, everyone, for tuning into the earnings call. We'll now open up the call to Q&A.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Heiko Ihle with H.C. Wainwright.
分析师问答
Case Bongirne
Case here filling in for Heiko. Congrats on another great quarter. You guys ended with $21 million in cash. Given the increased size and scope of the firm, could you maybe walk us through the minimum sizing of cash that you'd want to hold just to feel comfortable? And maybe how this cash level could change as more and more assets enter production? And if you want to add some additional color on if gold prices have any input on those minimum cash levels?
David Garofalo
Sure. I'll hand that off to Andrew Gubbels, our CFO.
Andrew Gubbels
Yes. No, thanks, Dave. Look, we don't have a hard and fast target for minimum cash. That being said, we do have, I guess, practically speaking, we'd like to keep cash on the balance sheet for working capital purposes as required. Tentatively, somewhere in the circa $10 million range is what we have in mind. It can fluctuate sort of around that level. Now that's not, again, a hard and fast rule.
In terms of additions to cash throughout the year, I think you can run your models and it depends on where your gold price is for revenue as well as what your estimates are for GEOs. But just keep in mind that our operating costs have been quite consistent over the number of 8 to 10 previous quarters. So around that $7 million or $8 million range for G&A, everything in excess would be really free cash given that we don't have any debt on the balance sheet. So in terms of what we build is contingent on what your assumptions are on some of those factors going forward. But I would say somewhere in and around that $10 million cash range is where we sort of feel comfortable keeping cash on the balance sheet.
Case Bongirne
That was really helpful. Second question and last. On the royalty asset generator, you guys mentioned you generated 60 royalties since the acquisition of Ely Gold. Could you maybe walk us through 2 or 3 that you think are most undervalued by the market and also the analyst community?
David Garofalo
John, do you want to handle that, John Griffith?
John Griffith
Yes. Look, I think the reality with early-stage assets is it's very difficult to predict what is going to ultimately become a mine. The one thing that is very important to bear in mind with our royalty generator business model is the fact that we don't -- we're not staking claims on properties that are unknown from a geological perspective. There is a lot of what we would refer to as nearology involved. Many of the properties are staked in close proximity to existing operations and existing resources.
So it's really difficult to give you a prediction of what's going to really turn into a mine over a period of time. But the reality is it's tremendous option value for our stakeholders on that portfolio.
David Garofalo
I think the one example I would illustrate, though, to add to what John said is Tonopah West in Nevada, which we staked back in 2021. It's one of the more significant silver discoveries in that region. And we sold it to Blackrock Silver for about $1.5 million in cash and a 3% royalty back in 2024, and Blackrock believes it will be in production by the end of the decade. So that's warp speed by mining standards.
And just remind you that our entry price was effectively 0. So the rate of return is infinite for our shareholders. And that's the power of this generator model is effectively no entry cost and the potential to generate outsized returns.
Operator
The next question comes from Tate Sullivan with Maxim Group.
Tate Sullivan
You had some comments on the Vareš. Your royalty with, I mean, increasing to $2.4 million in the third quarter and then with the details from DPM about increasing annualized processing capacity by 49% to the end of the year. I mean, should we factor in that scale of an increase for your copper royalty for 2027? Or would you caution against that, please?
David Garofalo
I'll hand it off to Jackie.
Jackie Przybylowski
Thanks very much, Tate, for the question. Yes, I think we don't have a great amount of disclosure on the copper grade or copper expected to be produced in 2027 just because it's not particularly material to DPM given our stream on that asset. I would say, directionally, with Vareš reaching the full run rate, 850,000 tonnes per year by the end of 2026, we would expect processing at that run rate for the full year 2027.
So broadly speaking, without any major changes in copper grade, we would expect to see that sort of Q4 level of production to our accounts sort of continue through 2027 or even potentially slightly higher as the early part of Q4 won't be at that 850,000 tonnes run rate exactly.
But having said that, if there is variation in grade that could affect that ultimate production in 2027 slightly. We haven't seen too much variation in grade at the asset. It has been fairly homogeneous in terms of the copper distribution. So our best outlook right now is that would look fairly similar to how we're exiting the year this year.
Tate Sullivan
I mean looking at -- and looking at the scale, I mean, it potentially could be Vareš your largest royalty revenue, I would think, in '27? Or is that not necessarily the case given all this business dynamics and the portfolio?
Jackie Przybylowski
It's definitely our largest stream revenue given that's the only stream we have. But absolutely, it will be one of the biggest contributors to our revenue next year, yes.
Tate Sullivan
Okay. And then if you can, I mean, just -- I mean, there were some indications of separately Tether selling some gold ounces from 6/30 to 9/30, but then I think their share position in you went up a little bit. Have you had many interactions with Tether or willing to comment on their market behavior at all?
David Garofalo
I don't think we can provide any particular insight. They've been a passive shareholder in our company, and they've been consistently accumulating since they started buying the stock back a year ago last summer. And you'd have to ask them what their intentions are. But clearly, they're still dealing with a fairly significant inflow of interest or yield on their treasuries, and those treasury yields are only going up or have only gone up this year.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Derick Ma with TD Securities.
Derick Ma
My question is on REN. What are your expectations for REN in 2027 and beyond? And specifically, when do you start expecting to get paid on that 3.5% NPI?
David Garofalo
I'll pass that on to Jackie.
Jackie Przybylowski
Thanks a lot, Derick. So with REN, I know Barrick has mentioned that it's expecting to be in production by the end of this year. So we are expecting to see first production from REN fairly soon and to reach 140,000 ounces per year as the full run rate by sort of late 2027. So definitely expecting to see REN really start production very well over the next few months and quarters.
To your point about when we start to get paid. So with REN, on the NPI, the sort of structure of the NPI is that Barrick or Nevada Gold Mines will recover the invested capital first before the NPI starts to pay out to us. And so we would expect that sometime in 2028, depending on gold price, but our sort of base case forecast would be sort of early 2028 at current gold prices.
Derick Ma
Okay. And very strong land agreement proceeds in Q3. How much of that is recurring? And how should we be thinking about the revenue-generating power of this business segment going forward?
David Garofalo
Andrew, do you want to handle that, please?
Andrew Gubbels
Yes, sure. Look, the land agreement proceeds is lumpy by nature. It's really dependent on contracts. In Q3, we had a couple that were chunkier. I would -- the way that I would sort of see land agreement proceeds moving forward is a smaller contribution to the overall mix. Royalty and stream revenue will certainly be on the larger side. This quarterly amount is larger than it was in the previous quarter and quarter before that.
In terms of run rate, it really depends on how many more contracts are signed and how the agreements play out. But generally speaking, I would say that this quarter is higher than what we would expect normally. I'd say Q1, Q2 is probably a little more consistent with where we see future quarters. That being said, we haven't put out guidance for the next year. And when we do, it will be clear. But there are, again, some lumpy revenue coming from land agreement proceeds in future quarters that we expect as well. But this quarter is a little higher than what we usually see.
But again, trailing off somewhere -- if you look at our run rate in the last couple of years, it has decreased as a contribution. But if you look at the revenue contribution over the last year, I think it's fairly consistent if you add up the quarters in this year and going forward, somewhere in that area as well. It's not expected to be substantially bigger, but this quarter is a little bit higher.
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to David Garofalo for closing remarks.
David Garofalo
Thanks very much, everybody. If you have any other questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to jackiep@goldroyalty.com or any of us. Please e-mail, call, we'd be happy to answer any other follow-up questions.
Thank you for your attention this morning.
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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