VPG 2026财年第三季度业绩电话会：传感器订单量创历史新高支撑2027年增长前景

核心要点

• VPG公布2026年第三季度GAAP净营收为8510万美元。在扣除传导给客户的230万美元关税退款后，调整后营收为8740万美元，环比增长4%，同比增长10%。
• 调整后订单额达到1.03亿美元，综合订单出货比为1.17。三大业务板块的订单出货比均高于1.0，截至季度末的在手订单额达到1.51亿美元。
• 传感器业务营收同比增长21%至3840万美元。受AI相关基础设施以及航空航天与国防应用需求的推动，新订订单额达5170万美元，连续第二个季度创下历史新高。
• 调整后毛利率环比提升至39.3%，调整后EBITDA增加至820万美元，调整后自由现金流回升至550万美元。
• 管理层指引2026年第四季度营收为8400万至9100万美元，并表示随着产能扩大，2027年第一季度营收有望达到9000万美元或更高。
• 基于订单势头和在手订单，管理层认为2027年营收具备实现10%-12%增长的潜力。不过这仍取决于产能落地情况、客户进度以及终端市场状况。

核心财务数据

业务与运营表现

传感器业务

传感器业务是VPG的主要增长引擎。该业务营收环比增长15%，同比增长21%至3840万美元。新订订单额较第二季度增长8%，达到创纪录的5170万美元，订单出货比达1.35。

需求主要受用于半导体前道、后道和工艺控制设备的高精度电阻，以及用于高速光纤传输基础设施产品的拉动。同时，已有项目和下一代项目的航空电子与国防需求保持稳健。

管理层估计，AI相关需求约占传感器业务的20%-30%。该估算包括半导体、光纤数据基础设施以及潜在的人形机器人应用。

人形机器人新订订单额约为20万美元，营收为30万美元。由于供应链扩产挑战，首批客户将量产爬坡的时间推迟到了第四季度。VPG预计第四季度订单将逐渐增加，并在2027年加速增长，同时强调客户的时间进度仍存在不确定性。

称重解决方案业务

调整后营收为2690万美元，环比下降11%，同比下降2%。环比下滑反映了欧洲市场的季节性疲软，主要是过程称重产品。

调整后订单额为2860万美元，订单出货比为1.06。工业称重和医疗需求总体保持稳定。第二季度大额半年期订单之后，电动自行车订单减少，但这被交通运输领域更强劲的需求所抵消。

测量系统业务

在面向钢铁市场的DSI热力模拟系统销量增长的支撑下，营收环比增长10%，同比增长8%。KELK的生产持续复苏。

订单额环比增长19%至约2220万美元，其中与钢铁相关的订单增长了40%。用于汽车碰撞安全测试的DTS新订订单额达到了2026年最高水平，而航空航天与国防订单继续保持强劲。

VPG在2026年前九个月实现了420万美元的成本节约，并有望如期实现全年约600万美元的节约目标。这些举措是三年计划的一部分，该计划旨在通过制造优化、自动化和采购效率提升节省约2000万美元。

管理层业绩指引

在假设2026年第三季度汇率保持不变的情况下，VPG预计2026年第四季度净营收为8400万至9100万美元。该指引未计入预期给客户的关税退款，管理层表示该项退款对利润影响中性。

第四季度的营收指引区间反映了排期中的在手订单出货情况、工作日少于第三季度，以及人形机器人客户进度的不确定性。公司仍在继续招聘和培训制造人员，并增加设备，特别是在传感器部门。

管理层表示，计划中的产能扩张可支撑2027年第一季度实现9000万美元或更高的营收。同时，在1.51亿美元在手订单、持续的AI相关需求、航空航天与国防业务以及工业市场复苏早期迹象的支撑下，2027年营收具备10%-12%的增长潜力。

VPG预计2026全年运营税率约为45%，资本开支为1400万至1600万美元。

风险与关注点

• 不利的汇率因素使第三季度调整后营业利润同比减少340万美元，使今年以来的营业利润减少810万美元。
• 由于收入地理分布结构的变化，第三季度调整后税率从上半年的37%升至48%，导致调整后每股收益减少约0.03美元。
• 由于客户正在扩产复杂的供应链，人形机器人的量产进度仍存在波动。
• 传感器业务的产能扩充需要新设备、新制造基地、人员招聘及员工培训。管理层表示，由于产品学习曲线的存在，产能提升和交货周期改善仍需时日。
• 第四季度的工作日少于第三季度，对出货量构成了额外限制。

分析师问答环节亮点

管理层确认，第三季度业务开发新订订单额约为1200万美元，前九个月累计达3350万美元。VPG仍有望实现4500万美元的全年目标。

在被问及2027年前景时，管理层指出了季度末1.51亿美元的在手订单、预计第四季度订单运行率与第三季度相似、持续的AI相关需求、航空航天与国防领域的强劲表现以及工业复苏的迹象。

在产能方面，VPG表示正在采购设备、招聘员工并扩展更多制造设施的生产能力。管理层预计这些举措将在未来几个季度增加产量并缩短交货周期。

公司还确认，此前推迟的部分KELK订单已在第三季度交付，预计大部分将在第四季度交付。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to the VPG Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Steve Cantor, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Steve Cantor

Great. Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to VPG's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our press release and slides are available on our website, vpgsensors.com. An audio recording of today's call will also be available on our website. On the call today, we will be -- today's remarks are governed by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Actual results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements, and there could be no assurance that the results discussed today, including the targets in our operating model, will be achieved. For a discussion of the risks associated with VPG's operations, please refer to our SEC filings, particularly our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and our other recent SEC filings.

We also present certain GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and on this call, and we believe these measures provide useful information about the operating performance of our business and should be considered together with the corresponding GAAP measures. Before beginning the call, I want to note that we received $2.3 million in tariff refunds from the U.S. federal government, and we intend to pass those refunds on to our customers. GAAP net revenue for the third quarter was $85.1 million. Third quarter adjusted net revenue was $87.4 million, excluding $2.3 million of refunds that had no impact on gross profit.

Under GAAP, these refunds are reflected as reductions to revenue and cost of products sold. Unless otherwise noted, all third quarter financial measures discussed today exclude these refunds, including adjusted gross margin. The refunds have no impact on prior periods. Joining me on the call today are Ziv Shoshani, President and CEO; and Bill Clancy, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Ziv for his prepared remarks. You can read off the quarterly presentation. Ziv?

Ziv Shoshani

Thank you, Steve. I will begin with commentary on the third quarter. Bill will then review our financial results and provide our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026. Moving to Slide 4, third quarter highlights, booking and sales. Our third quarter reflected continued strong demand, improving revenues and margins and ongoing progress in our strategic initiatives. Adjusted revenue was $87.4 million, our highest quarterly level in 3 years, increasing 4% sequentially and 10% year-over-year.

Adjusted orders of $103 million were driven by continued record demand in our Sensors segment from AI-related markets, including semiconductor equipment, data center infrastructure as well as aerospace and defense applications. Bookings from our business development initiatives totaled $11.9 million in the third quarter and $33.5 million year-to-date, keeping us on track to achieve our $45 million full year goal.

Our consolidated book-to-bill ratio was 1.17, marking the eighth consecutive quarter at or above 1.0 and underscoring continued positive demand trends, led by the Sensors book-to-bill ratio of 1.35, all 3 segments achieved ratios above 1.0. This sustained order momentum is driving a growing backlog and increasing our visibility into 2027.

We continue to add manufacturing capacity and personnel to support our growth, particularly in Sensors. Our order momentum in key markets and our growing backlog set the stage for potential revenue growth of 10% to 12% in 2027, which is above the annual target rate in our 3-year plan. Adjusted gross margin improved to 39.3% from 38.6% in the second quarter. Third quarter cash from operations was $11.1 million and free cash flow was $5.5 million.

Adjusted EPS of $0.14 reflected an adjusted 48% tax rate compared to the 37% through the first half of 2026, driven by a shift in the geographic mix of income. The higher tax rate reduced adjusted EPS by approximately $0.03 per diluted share. Regarding our operational improvement initiatives, we delivered nearly $4.2 million of cost savings year-to-date and remain on track to achieve approximately $6 million of savings this year.

These actions represent the first phase of our 3-year plan to deliver approximately $20 million of cost reduction initiatives through manufacturing footprint optimization, increased automation and procurement efficiencies across our global supply chain. I'll now review performance by segment.

Moving to Slide 5. Sensors third quarter highlights. Beginning with our Sensors segment, third quarter revenue of $38.4 million grew 15% from the second quarter and 21% from a year ago. The increase from the second quarter primarily reflected higher sales to the test and measurement market. Bookings of $51.7 million remained robust, increasing 8% sequentially to a second consecutive all-time quarterly record. This resulted in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.35.

Demand continued to be driven by investments in AI-related infrastructure. We recorded strong orders for precision resistors sold to semiconductor front-end, back-end and process control equipment manufacturers. Bookings for manufacturers of high-speed fiber optic transmission equipment remained elevated, supporting the continued build-out of data center infrastructure. We saw continued positive trends in avionics and defense applications with sustained demand from both established and next-generation defense programs.

Turning to humanoid robotics. We remain highly optimistic about the long-term opportunity. While the market is still in its early stages, the engineering complexity, demanding performance requirement and the need to scale sophisticated supply chain create an attractive opportunity for VPG. Humanoid-related bookings were approximately $200,000 and sales were $300,000 in the third quarter as our initial customer shifted the start of its production ramp to Q4, citing the challenges of scaling a highly complex supply chain -- we are prepared to support customer planned production volume and now expect orders to increase gradually beginning in the current quarter, with volume accelerating further through 2027.

We also received an investment from this customer to support our capacity expansion related to humanoid, which we view as a solid endorsement of our value proposition and their commitment to VPG as a supplier. Regarding customer #2, discussions continue to progress well and the potential revenue opportunity could be larger than we previously anticipated. We are also supporting several other humanoid robotics customers as they advance from prototype development to commercialization, while expanding our engagement with the additional prospective customers across the market.

Moving to Slide 6, Weighing Solutions third quarter highlights. Turning to our Weighing Solutions segment. Third quarter adjusted revenue of $26.9 million, which excludes $2.3 million of tariff refunds to customers, declined 11% from the second quarter and were down 2% from a year ago. The sequential decline reflected seasonal softness in Europe, mainly for process weighing products.

Adjusted orders of $28.6 million were flat with the second quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.06. Trends in the industrial weighing market and the medical market were mostly stable. Bookings declined from -- for consumer e-bike applications following a large semiannual order in the second quarter, which was offset by a higher demand in the transportation market.

I am pleased to note that our products are now standard options for onboard weighing on off-highway heavy use trucks for a leading European manufacturers designed to improve efficiency and safety. These solutions are integrated into the vehicle to measure payload during the loading and operations in a harsh environment such as mining and construction.

Moving to Slide 7. Measurement Systems third quarter highlights. Turning to Measurement Systems. Third quarter revenue increased 10% sequentially and 8% year-over-year. The sequential increase was driven by higher sales of DSI's thermal mechanical simulation test systems for the steel market. KELK production continued to recover from the second quarter. Because these products operate in a demanding environment and play a mission-critical role in optimization yields and productivity for steel products, we continue to focus on execution, product quality and customer service.

Orders of approximately $22.2 million increased 19% sequentially, which reflected a 40% increase in steel-related orders. We also had another strong quarter of DTS as bookings related to automotive crash safety testing reached their highest level of 2026 and orders for aerospace and defense applications remain strong.

Moving to Slide 8, priorities and focus. Our key priorities remain centered on 2 areas: accelerating commercialization and growth and driving operational execution and excellence. On the commercial side, we completed the first phase of our company-wide CRM rollout for the Sensors segment, with deployment across the remaining business planned for the fourth quarter and 2027. We rolled out a system and processes for lead management and opportunity management for Sensors.

And we have initiated targeted marketing programs in the humanoid robotics market. We also refreshed our corporate website and started the first phase of our plan to accelerate and streamline the new product development processes. Operationally, we achieved $4.2 million of our targeted $6 million in cost savings for 2026. We continue to optimize and relocate manufacturing for key products to support our long-term cost and productivity objectives.

At the same time, we are expanding production capacity through adding personnel and equipment at key Sensors facilities. Importantly, our manufacturing and supply chain capabilities are in place to support the initial production ramp for humanoid robotics customers. As we look ahead, given the strong order trends, growing backlog, continued execution on our growth strategies, we see potential to achieve revenue in the first quarter of 2027 of $90 million or better. This supports our potential to grow our revenues 10% to 12% in 2027, which is above the targeted annual growth rate in our original 3-year plan.

I will now turn it over to Bill Clancy. Bill?

William Clancy

Thank you, Ziv. Referring to Slide 9 and the reconciliation tables in the slide deck, third quarter 2026 GAAP net revenues was $85.1 million after $2.3 million of tariff refunds passed through to customers with no impact on gross margin. Excluding these refunds, adjusted revenue was $87.4 million. Adjusted gross margin improved sequentially to 39.3% from 38.6% in the second quarter, excluding $141,000 of start-up costs related to expanded production capacity. This was an improvement from 38.6% in the second quarter.

Sequentially by segment, Sensors adjusted gross margin increased to 32.6%, primarily due to higher volume, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs. Weighing Solutions adjusted gross margin of 34.6% declined mainly due to lower volume. Measurement Systems gross margin increased to 56.5%, primarily reflecting higher volume and a favorable product mix.

Moving to Slide 10. Our third quarter operating margin was 3.2%. Excluding the aforementioned start-up costs as well as restructuring, stock-based compensation and severance costs, adjusted operating margin was 4.9%. Selling, general and administrative expense for the third quarter was $31.2 million or 35.7% of revenue, down from second quarter levels due to lower sales commissions and reduced incentive compensation accruals.

Foreign exchange rates continued to represent a significant headwind to profitability. Unfavorable exchange rates reduced third quarter adjusted operating profit by $3.4 million compared with the prior year period. Year-to-date, unfavorable foreign exchange has reduced operating profit by $8.1 million. GAAP net earnings were $559,000 or $0.04 per diluted share. Adjusted net earnings were $1.8 million or $0.14 per diluted share. As Ziv noted earlier, the GAAP tax rate for the third quarter of 2026 was significantly higher than the run rate through the first half of the year. For full year 2026, we are assuming an operational tax rate of approximately 45%.

Moving to Slide 11. We also made meaningful sequential progress in EBITDA and cash flow. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $8.2 million or 9.4% of revenue from $5.2 million or 6.5% of revenue in the second quarter. Capital expenditures were $5.6 million in the third quarter and $10.6 million for the first 9 months of 2026. For full year 2026, we expect CapEx of approximately $14 million to $16 million.

We improved receivable collections during the quarter, which drove adjusted free cash flow to $5.5 million, a $6.9 million sequential improvement from negative $1.4 million in the second quarter. At the end of the third quarter, cash was $80.9 million and long-term debt was $15.7 million, resulting in net cash of approximately $65 million. Regarding the outlook, for the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect net revenues of $84 million to $91 million, assuming constant third quarter 2026 exchange rates.

Our guidance excludes expected fourth quarter tariff refunds to customers, which are profit neutral. In summary, order momentum remains strong, led by record demand in Sensors and continued strength in AI-related markets. Our financial performance is improving with sequential gains in adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow while we continue to execute our cost reduction initiatives. And our growing backlog, expanding capacity and commercial execution gives us increased visibility into 2027, supporting our view that revenue growth can exceed the annual target in our 3-year plan.

With that, we will open the call for questions. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Jaeson Schmidt at Lake Street Capital.

分析师问答

Jaeson Schmidt

Just curious if you could disclose what new business development revenue was in Q3? And I guess relatedly, are you still on track to hit that $45 million goal for the year?

Ziv Shoshani

Yes. So yes, we did report a BD for Q3, the BD contribution is $12 million in orders. And for the first 9 months, it's $33.5 million, and we are on track to hit our $45 million target for 2026.

Jaeson Schmidt

Okay. Perfect. And then looking at 2027, obviously, you guys feel pretty confident on next year. Just curious if you could rank order the growth drivers that are giving you the confidence in the '27 outlook.

Ziv Shoshani

So as we look into 2027, first, we see a very solid backlog. For the end of this quarter, we are running at a backlog of $151 million. The expectation is that the order run rate for Q4 will be similar to the third quarter, given the business environment. We do see a continuation in -- from a demand standpoint from our end markets regarding AI-related infrastructure and applications as well as AMS. We do see also some signs in the industrial market in terms of recovery. Therefore, we are optimistic regarding our projection for 2027, which we expect to be 10% to 12% higher revenues in respect to 2026.

Operator

We'll move next to Josh Nichols at B. Riley Securities.

Josh Nichols

Just curious, like looking -- the backlog, the order activity has been exceptionally strong. You're assuming 4Q is kind of similar to 3Q and then there's a nice ramp assumed in 1Q and beyond. What's the right way to think about that wider revenue range that you're giving for 4Q? And what are kind of the puts and takes that would get you potentially to the higher end of that range? Is it order timing on things like humanoids or other parts of the core business like Sensors?

Ziv Shoshani

So if we are looking at the Q4 revenues, our Q4 outlook reflects really our aged backlog and the timing expected to be shipped in Q4, but it also takes into account the number of working days in Q4, which is less than Q3. We are also looking at -- we do continue to hire and train additional manufacturing personnel to increase our manufacturing production, mainly in the Sensors segment.

So all in all, the Q4 revenue projection is based on the backlog, number of working days, while also we increased the output per day. Based on our projected capacity increase, we do believe that we will be able to reach the $90 million or higher in Q1 in respect to revenues. And I'm sorry, what was your other question?

Josh Nichols

I was just curious because the range for 4Q was also a bit wider than you normally give. Normally, it's around $5 million.

Ziv Shoshani

We did give larger ranges in the past. I didn't thought this is a higher range than in the past. I would say that, as you said, there is a certain volatility regarding the humanoid business given the fact that the expected -- the supply chain is more complicated from our customer's standpoint, the supply chain is more complicated than expected. But this is part of the -- you can call it, of the buffer volatility that we also account in our range.

Josh Nichols

Got it. That makes sense. And then last question for me. I mean, the sensors momentum has been exceptionally strong, another quarter, record bookings north of $51 million. I'm just curious how you're thinking about -- given the influx of orders about your capacity lead times and the ability of the company to really convert that backlog into revenue in a timely manner.

Ziv Shoshani

So naturally, given the sizable order intake, we had to place order to increase capacity equipment as well as hiring more people. In addition to that, we are setting, I would say, more manufacturing site (sic) [ sites ] to support more manufacturing site (sic) [ sites ] to support the higher capacity. So it takes time given the learning curve and the complexity of the product that we are producing. But the expectation is that in the -- I would say that in the coming quarter, we are going to reduce the lead time and increase our capacity as we expand also in our other manufacturing facility.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

We'll move next to John Franzreb at Sidoti.

John Franzreb

Ziv, I'm kind of curious, given how much AI infrastructure markets are driving demand, do you have a sense of how much that is of the revenue and/or booking profile?

Ziv Shoshani

We didn't provide any specific information regarding the Sensor segment. We can -- we did identify that all the -- our semiconductor business, all our fiber optics data and potentially also our humanoid business, they are all AI related. I think that at this point in time, I could estimate that -- and by the way, in addition to that, I would like to state that we have also a very solid demand avionics, military and space business. But if we speak about specifically about the AI, I would say that at this point in time, a rough estimation would be around 20% to 30%.

John Franzreb

20% to 30% of the Sensors segment or company-wide?

Ziv Shoshani

No, no, no. Of the Sensors segment.

John Franzreb

And in the second quarter, there was a KELK order that was deferred at the time we say in the second half of the year. Was that order fulfilled in the third quarter? Or is there still some remaining that's going into the fourth?

Ziv Shoshani

So you are correct. Some of the order has been fulfilled, but the main part will be delivered in Q4 this quarter.

John Franzreb

That's good to hear. And one, I guess, last question. How are the -- just a point of clarity for me, how are the bookings impacted by the tariff refunds? I understand how the revenue works, but it looks like there's a footnote in the presentation about bookings.

William Clancy

Yes, John. So the way we do our calculation, it's always the opening backlog and then plus order less -- I mean -- so basically, we back into the order numbers just because the backlog is fixed. So it's just a mathematical calculation.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And we have no further questions. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve for closing remarks.

Steve Cantor

Before concluding, I want to note that we will be participating in the ROTH Conference this month and the Sidoti Conference in December, and you can contact me for more information about those. We look forward to updating you next quarter. Thank you all, and have a great day.

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.