阿德摩尔航运 (ASC) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：第四季度MR TCE达57,600美元/天

核心要点

• Ardmore Shipping 报告 2026 年第三季度调整后收益为 6300 万美元（即每股 0.40 美元），调整后 EBITDA 为 2880 万美元。
• 该公司宣布每股派发 0.27 美元的季度股息，相当于调整后收益的三分之二，标志着其连续第 16 个季度派发现金股息。
• MR 型油轮第三季度的日均等效期租收益（TCE）为 27,000 美元。第四季度已订租 45%，平均日租金为 57,600 美元，而近期成交合同的日租金已超过 80,000 美元。
• 化学品船第三季度日均收益为 23,300 美元，第四季度迄今已订租 60%，日均收益为 30,100 美元。过去一个月，灵便型化学品船的成交定租均价接近每天 50,000 美元。
• 运营现金盈亏平衡点维持在每天 10,800 美元，相对于当前租金水平具备显著的运营杠杆。本季度营运率达到 99%。
• 管理层表示，地缘政治导致的贸易错位、成品油低库存以及航程增加继续支撑油轮需求，而老龄化的 MR 型和灵便型船队则限制了有效供给。

核心财务数据

业务与运营表现

Ardmore 进入第四季度时，约有 85% 的船队敞口暴露于现货市场，这使公司能够捕捉油轮租金的急剧上涨。管理层将当前状况形容为在季节性时期完全开启之前就已经展现出冬季市场的特征。

公司将强劲的油轮需求归因于贸易路线受阻、炼油利润率高企以及成品油库存干涸。管理层表示，全球成品油库存的下降相当于 600 多艘 MR 型油轮的运量。管理层还提及，欧洲航空煤油库存仅为年初水平的一半左右，而美国汽油和柴油库存低于其五年均值区间。

更长途的贸易格局也推高了船舶利用率。美国湾区发往欧洲和亚洲的出口量同比增加，而向东行驶的 MR 型石脑油运量增长了五倍。管理层补充道，中国、韩国和印度出口活动的增加可能会进一步支撑货物周转。

船队供给继续受到船龄老化的限制。MR 型手持订单占现有船队的 18%，而现有的 MR 型油轮中有一半将在五年内船龄超过 20 年。在灵便型油轮方面，手持订单占比为 6%，且 75% 的船队将在五年内船龄超过 20 年。管理层表示，更严格的安全、环保和合规要求降低了老旧船舶的有效利用率。

Ardmore 以 3430 万美元出售了一艘 2013 年建造的船舶，交船已于 10 月中旬完成。公司还行使了另外两艘新造灵便型油轮选择权，使订单总数达到六艘，计划从 2028 年开始交付。这些船舶设计用于运输成品油、高级化学品、食用油和替代燃料。

管理层业绩指引

管理层预计 2026 年剩余时间的船队资本支出为 200 万美元，并预测 2027 年为 1300 万美元。

除当前已订租数据外，公司未提供整季度的 TCE 预测。管理层强调，虽然运费预测仍存在不确定性，但近期 MR 型油轮超过 80,000 美元/天的订租价格表明，市场动能已超越第四季度已订租的 57,600 美元/天平均水平。

Ardmore 计划继续派发三分之二的调整后收益，同时兼顾船队更新、择机出售船舶和潜在收购。管理层表示，这些资本配置杠杆可能会在市场周期的不同节点使用，而不是同时实施。

风险与关注焦点

• 第四季度的 TCE 数据仅覆盖了 MR 型油轮 45% 的可用天数和化学品船 60% 的可用天数，使最终业绩易受现货费率变化的影响。
• 管理层承认，当前运费率环境持续的时间和幅度难以预测。
• 地缘政治局势动荡虽然支撑了更长途的贸易路线，但也导致了充满挑战的运营环境和货流方向的变化。
• 老旧船舶在安全、环保和合规标准方面面临顶尖租船方日益严格的审查，降低了其有效利用率。
• 六艘新造船计划增加了远期资本承诺，这体现在 32% 的有效杠杆率中。

分析师问答环节点评

分析师关注的焦点在于，卓越的现金流创造能力和资产价值是否会改变 Ardmore 的资本配置优先级。管理层表示，公司将保持灵活的方法，将股息派发、潜在的股票回购、选择性船队投资以及择机出售老旧船舶相结合。

在船队战略方面，管理层表示，Ardmore 对以当前现代化的船队和较高的现货市场敞口进入冬季市场感到满意。公司准备在更多周期中保留老旧船舶，但如果买家提供足够有吸引力的价格，也会考虑出售。

管理层还表示，租入船舶仍是 Ardmore 战略工具箱的一部分，尽管在退租一艘船舶后，公司目前没有租入船舶。未来任何租入交易都需要符合 Ardmore 在船舶质量、技术管理和客户兼容性方面的标准。

业绩电话会完整文字记录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Note that today's call is being recorded and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website, www.ardmorshipping.com. We will conduct a question-and-answer session after the opening remarks. Instructions will follow at that time. A replay of the conference call will be accessible anytime during the next week by dialing 1 888660-6345 164 517-4150 and entering passcode 402 19. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer at Ardmore Shipping.

Gernot Ruppelt

Good morning, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. First, let me ask our President, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.

Bart Kelleher

Thanks, Garnet. Turning to Slide 2. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in our third quarter 2026 earnings release, which is available on our website. And I'll now turn the call back to Gernot.

Gernot Ruppelt

Thank you, Bart. Let me outline the format of today's call, which you can see here on Slide 3. First, I'll provide a brief overview of our third quarter highlights. Thereafter, I will hand over to Bart, who will cover the market outlook and update you on our financial and operating performance. Then I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions. Turning to Slide 4, which covers our earnings highlights. We are pleased to report another strong result with third quarter adjusted earnings of $63 million or $0.40 per share. Geopolitical dislocation continues to reshape trade patterns, absorbing tonnage and boosting TCE rates and even stronger momentum has been building into the fourth quarter.

We continue to execute on our capital allocation policy -- part more is declaring a dividend of $0.27 per share, consistent with our policy of paying out 2/3 of adjusted earnings. During the third quarter, we agreed to sell 1 of our 2013 Baltimore for $34.3 million, and the ship was subsequently delivered in mid-October. And as previously announced, we exercised options for 2 Handysize tanker newbuildings bringing our total order to 6 vessels with delivery dates starting from 2028.

Moving on to our TCE performance on Slide 5. Our third quarter bookings reflect the firm market during what is a seasonally slower period. And moving into the fourth quarter, rates have been accelerating meaningfully. Our MR tankers earned $27,000 per day for the third quarter and $57,600 per day so far in the fourth quarter with 45% booked. As you can see in the chart here, these levels are roughly double the TCEs achieved during the same period last year. And if you were to zoom in further, our recent bookings are north of $80,000 per day. Our chemical tankers earned $23,300 per day for the third quarter and $30,100 per day so far in the fourth quarter with 60% booked. With some additional context, our Handysize chemical tankers, the focus of our new building program have concluded average charter rates of nearly $50,000 per day over the last month. Our operating leverage is exceptionally strong with TCE earnings at a multiple of our operating cash breakeven of $10,800 per day.

Turning to Slide 6. Here, we outlined the company's approach to capital allocation whereby we continue to return capital to shareholders while investing in fleet renewal and growth. At the start of the year, we increased our dividend payout ratio to 2/3 of adjusted earnings. And today, we are declaring our 16th consecutive quarterly cash dividend. As mentioned, we have contracted 6 Handysize tanker newbuildings with delivery starting in 2028. These highly flexible assets can carry the full range of mainstream oil and refined products as well as the majority of advanced chemical cargoes, edible oils and alternative fuels.

This year, we sold 2 older vessels at very attractive prices. While last year, we had acquired 3 modern secondhand MRs at prices around 30% below current market levels. And we retained considerable financial flexibility across a wide range of market conditions with an operating cash breakeven of just $10,800 per day and ample debt capacity. With that, I'd like to hand it over to Bart for the market outlook.

Bart Kelleher

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to Slide 8 and the market outlook. Starting on the top right, Global seaborne crude shipments are essentially back to pre-conflict levels. The chart on the bottom left shows crack spreads averaging over $60 per barrel on WTI and over 50 on Brent, up from the $20 range at the start of the year. This is supporting robust refining activity as depicted in the bottom right. The IEA forecast global throughput to rise by more than 1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter with further growth through 2027, supporting higher product exports and product tanker utilization. .

Moving to Slide 9 and the inventory restocking opportunity ahead. Disruption to crude and product flows has created supply gaps in several regions. Inventories have been drawn, leaving product stocks at multiyear lows. The chart on the top right shows European jet fuel now half of what it was at the start of the year, sitting well below its 5-year range. Looking to the 2 charts on the bottom, U.S. gasoline and diesel are both below their 5-year lows as well. Rebuilding these stocks will add an incremental layer of product tanker demand. Just to frame this, the decline in global product stocks equates to over 600 MR equivalent cargoes.

Additionally, several countries are planning to increase their strategic reserves, potentially further lengthening the restocking cycle and corresponding product tanker demand. Turning to Slide 10 and how geopolitical shifts in refinery dislocation are reshaping global trade. Energy security remains a fundamental priority with government's diversifying import sources and securing seaborne supply chains. At the same time, refining and consumption are increasingly dislocated. The continued trend of closures in the West is being replaced by new capacity in the East, extending voyage distances. On top of these structural drivers, trade disruption is absorbing fleet capacity. The map shows a few representative examples.

Volumes from the U.S. Gulf to Europe and Asia have risen significantly year-on-year, and MR Naptha East is up fivefold. Moving to Slide 11. I where we highlight the favorable supply dynamics. Starting on the left with the MR segment. The order book represents 18% of the fleet. And within 5 years, half of all existing MRs will be over 20 years old. Moving to the Handysize segment on the right, which, as a reminder, is the focus of our newbuilding program, the order book is just 6% of the current fleet and within 5 years, 75% of Handy's will be over 20 years old that 17 million tons approaching the scrapping window to warping the 1 million tons on order. Slide 12 further shows how the aging fleet impacts effective supply.

Given rigorous safety, environmental and compliance standards, older tankers are increasingly scrutinized by top-tier charters. As the chart highlights, utilization meaningfully declines as the vessel ages. And even when older vessels are not scrapped, effective supply is reduced accordingly. Moving now to our financial and operating performance. Turning to Slide 14, where we detail our financial position. We continue to generate robust cash flow by optimizing TCE performance and tightly managing costs, supporting our low operating cash breakeven level of $10,800 per day. were $11,700 per day, including dry dock and CapEx. Looking ahead, including the forward commitments associated with our newbuilding program, effective leverage stands at 32%.

Turning to Slide 15. Again, highlighting our third quarter results with adjusted EBITDA of $28.8 million and adjusted EPS of $0.40. The EBITDA reconciliation in our fourth quarter guidance can be found in the appendix. Turning to Slide 16 for operational highlights. -- far well-being continues to be a top priority, and we acknowledge the key role our seafarers play in an increasingly challenging operating environment. During the quarter, we achieved an impressive 99% on-hire utilization, supported by our very active Ship to Shore collaboration with innovation continuing to drive strong efficiencies. For the remainder of the year, fleet CapEx is estimated at $2 million, and we forecast $13 million for 2027. With that, I'm happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.

Gernot Ruppelt

Thank you, Bart. Moving to Slide 18 in summary. Ardmore is well positioned and capitalizing on a strong market. We are capturing TCE rates at large multiples of our cash breakeven with MR earnings so far in the fourth quarter of almost $60,000 per day and recent bookings point even higher as discussed earlier on the call. Near-term disruption and inventory restocking needs create strong immediate drivers in addition to compelling structural long-term demand growth and an aging fleet. We are distributing 2/3 of adjusted earnings to shareholders while renewing the fleet through targeted investment in line with the company's dynamic approach to capital allocation. As always, our decisions are guided by our long-term strategy strong governance and a commitment to creating value through market cycles. We now welcome your questions. .

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First, we will hear from John Chappell at Evercore ISI. Please go ahead, Jon.

分析师问答

Jonathan Chappell

Thank you. Okay. Slide 6 is your policies and priorities that you've had in place for a few years, and they've obviously served you quite well. but we're in incredible times right now. And the cash flow generation, the asset value movements we've never seen before in this industry. Does that change the way that you think about these priorities into '27 and beyond? And if not, the priorities themselves but maybe the timing of how you look to introduce them or potentially accelerate them?

Gernot Ruppelt

That's a terrific question, John. And I'd like to think we have been and we'll continue to approach that topic in a very nonbinary way, where as a business, we continue to make sure that we return capital to shareholders. Well, of course, there's any business, you also have to invest in your future. But those different levers don't have to be always pulled simultaneously or within any given quarter, but rather need to be looked at kind of through the game, through the cycle. And for us, we'll continue to adjust those levers on right now our accelerated dividend payout ratio at a different time, we embraced share buybacks on the fleet renewal side, very well-timed acquisitions in the second hand market last year and equally some well-timed new building constructions that we've committed to at pre-year-end prices and then layered as various tranches at options throughout the year in all those situations kind of really moved early before the market and then also continuing to assess opportunities to take some value off the table by pruning some of our older ships if we're seeing sort of the right price and we'll continue to approach it exactly in that fashion.

Jonathan Chappell

Okay. And then as a follow-up, again, extraordinary, typically, when you have this kind of quarter-to-date level rate, I would tend to fade them because typically, they don't last. They're not strong for this long. However, as you insinuated in 1 of your product tanker peers spoke to last week. They're actually continuing to march higher. So is there any way to kind of give us a sense of where you sit today relative to that average? And then given the inventory slides, especially that Bart laid out, maybe how to think about magnitude and direction from the rest of this quarter, understanding it's very difficult to predict. So maybe just kind of where we are today versus the average is a good way to start.

Gernot Ruppelt

Yes, acknowledging some of those challenges of a true prediction, but at the same time, grounding us and some of the facts that we are seeing -- that we're observing today. Just looking at the market around you, it feels like a winter market already before it is even winter. If you look at refining margins, we had, of course, some data update during the slide show. But in very simple terms, refining margins today are double of what they were before the situation in Iran kicked off earlier this year. And those levels are yet again double of what they would have been at the start of the decade. So none of this is set to change anytime soon.

Atlantic product markets remain extremely tight, as you can see with some of the significant product deficiencies in some markets. And then at the same time, some barrels, of course, coming out of the Middle East. And you see an overall structural Chinese refining surplus, probably kicking in to an even higher gear. If you consider the recent publication of higher export quotas from Korea -- sorry, from China, at the same time, you also saw that Korea made some announcements with regard to expanding the export -- export capacities. And India typically gets quite busy this time of the year as well. So we continue to see these significant swings. Overall, the barrels are back, but the efficiency is not. And you, of course, now see product tankers continuing to connect these inefficient commodity markets in a very efficient way.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Next will be Omar Nokta at Clarkson.

Omar Nokta

Pretty a good update. Yes. So clearly, 3, even though it was softer quarter-over-quarter, it was still historically very good and then 4Q is looking off the charts as you were highlighting. I wonder if you just ask about maybe somewhat related to John's first question about capital allocation. You mentioned opportunistically selling the 2013 built MR. How do you think about replacing those earnings or taking the cash and using that for a separate purpose. What are you thinking about that? When we -- in the past few quarters, you've invested in the handies via the new buildings. How are you thinking about the MR specifically? Would you look to recycle the cash into more new buildings on the MR side? Or would you look to acquire potentially modern vessels? Or is it just sit back and leave as ?

Gernot Ruppelt

Right now, we're very happy with the position that we're in, Omar. We have a very modern fleet, all equals back 85% -- roughly 85% spot as we're heading into the winter market here. As far as the future is concerned, I believe the market will guide the way. There are times to be just patient and let you position play out. And then there are other times to be decisive as we have demonstrated at the start of last year at again at the start of this year. And we continue to have a very live interactive discussion internally and with our Board about where the pockets of value closely tracking price dislocation again, bringing it back to the overall levers of our capital allocation policy, balancing returning capital to our shareholders reinvesting in the business in the long run, but also in line with what is our long-term strategy and what has been our long-term strategy that underpins those decisions.

So kind of combining a very deliberate long-term strategic focus while being nimble and opportunistic for instance, if there's an opportunity to prune some of these older ships. I will say the ARPA feet, as you see also the shift that we sold, these are fine ships, all eco built by or owned by Armor for longer than a decade with various efficiency upgrades already undertaken, and we are fully prepared and would be very happy to take them through various cycles to come and hold them for another 7 years. And we're preparing any additional upgrades and maintenance programs and driving schedules with that baseline assumption. But if somebody really wants to come and present a strong number, of course, on an older ship. We obviously have to listen. But that's probably not today, we're very happy approaching the winter as it is now and letting our position play out here.

Omar Nokta

Okay. That's fair. So basically go into the winter, see how that goes and perhaps revisit as we get into next year if I'm moving you correctly?

Gernot Ruppelt

Absolutely. And I think there's a lot of really important interesting immediate drivers that are just really starting to play out on the market. I think there's the broader picture with with the relationship with -- between the bigger ships and MRs and MRS just really stepping into that normalized relationship, kind of taking their rightful place there. And I think looking ahead as where the world is going, not to belabor the state of the world, but at times like these, this concept of having access to energy supply chain resilience or that becomes for state players as a matter of natural security and at an enterprise level for our customers, protecting these incredible refining profits through access to tonnage, we'll continue to mean 1 thing and 1 thing only, maritime assets, essential assets and the market is probably just in the process of finding how to price those assets correctly, and we're quite happy to see that play out. .

Omar Nokta

Yes, certainly. And maybe if I could, just another question. I wanted to ask about the chartering and tonnage something that you have done generally in the past as we think about opportunities there, you've got a very strong balance sheet, plenty of flexibility with all the liquidity you have and the cash. How do you think about maybe looking to more on the TCN side by going long and bringing vessels in and go short in terms of charting them out in the spot market. Is that something that's interesting, just given kind of where the market is today in terms of the separation between what a TC and what cost versus what a spot rate would get you today? And then obviously, in the context of having a very robust balance sheet.

Gernot Ruppelt

Absolutely. And I feel like these are levers we have used in the past and something we would continue to explore at the moment, well, we have actually redelivered a ship and currently don't have any ships on time charter in, but that could always be something that's very much in the mix for Armor. Of course, we're not only looking for a particular number with time short and relationships. It is also important that we have strong compatibility on brand, on technical management, on the quality of the ships, on the quality of the technical management company behind that vessel as we then move it into the auto tonnage list that it is fully up to our expectations because we have a strong following among our community of customers and charters and maintaining that is also really important for us. So in principle, very much part of the playbook, even though that might not be the case today. .

Operator

At this time, we have no other questions registered, which will conclude the question-and-answer session as well as our conference call today. I would like to thank everybody for taking the time to attend and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have yourselves a good afternoon.