FIBK 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：利润率连续第10个季度扩张

FIBK公布第三季度净利润有所下降，原因在于上季度包含了一项分支机构交易收益，而净利息收入和净息差则继续改善。管理层强调，核心存款增长、资产重定价和积极的资本回报是其业绩战略的主要驱动力。

核心要点

• 2026年第三季度净利润为6220万美元（即摊薄后每股收益0.65美元），而2026年第二季度为8390万美元（即摊薄后每股收益0.87美元）。
• 净利息收入环比增长2%至2.062亿美元。全额应税等值净息差上升7个基点至3.55%，标志着连续第10个季度实现扩大。
• 贷款减少2.96亿美元，反映出间接贷款流失、非本地信贷缩减以及住宅贷款组合收缩。管理层预计第四季度将有额外的商业贷款还清。
• 存款总额减少5280万美元至214亿美元，但若排除一位大型、高成本且全额抵押客户的流失，存款环比有所增加。无息存款实现连续第二个季度增长。
• FIBK在第三季度以约7600万美元回购了约200万股股票。自2025年8月该计划启动以来，累计回购股份约1000万股，总金额达3.47亿美元。
• 管理层预计第四季度净利息收入将按业绩指引的中点实现增长，尽管息差的环比改善幅度应小于第三季度。

关键财务数据

业务与运营业绩

FIBK继续围绕关系型银行业务重组其资产负债表和地理布局。公司已退出部分非战略性市场，减少了非本地贷款，并根据当地的增长机遇推进网点扩张或整合。

第三季度贷款减少了2.96亿美元。这一降幅包括间接贷款减少的4770万美元、保留的非本地组合减少的6490万美元以及住宅贷款减少的3680万美元。管理层表示，部分预期的还款递延到了第四季度初期。

尽管报告的存款总额有所下降，但存款结构得到改善。一位大型高成本客户的流失为第三季度息差扩大贡献了约3个基点，且未对净利息收入产生实质性影响。管理层表示，客户获取依然强劲，尤其是在洛基山脉地区，新合作关系带来了运营存款及相关服务。

资产重定价仍是盈利驱动因素。管理层指出，新贷款收益率保持在6%的中段水平，并表示投资组合中5年期以上部分的收益率提升了约40至50个基点。9月份整月的计息存款成本为1.51%，而该季度的平均成本为1.49%。

信贷指标总体稳定。关注类贷款环比增加210万美元，即0.2%，但同比下降19%。不良资产在季度内下降了6%。未放款的建筑承诺增加推高了未放款准备金，管理层称相关项目定价合理且结构良好。

FIBK计划在2027年上半年开设两个科罗拉多州分支机构，并在2026年第四季度整合三个网点。管理层表示，现有的客户经理团队产能、技术和基础设施足以支持计划中的增长，无需大幅追加投资，不过正常的通胀性费用增加仍有可能发生。

管理层业绩指引

管理层表示，第四季度展望的中点假设净利息收入实现环比增长，这得益于资产重定价、生息资产趋于稳定以及无息存款表现相对强劲。

公司预计第四季度息差的环比改善幅度将小于第三季度。9月加息后的存款重定价将在第四季度更充分地显现，而大型高成本存款流失带来的益处已在第三季度体现。

由于商业贷款偿还、间接贷款持续摊销以及进一步退出非关系型和非本地信贷，近期贷款余额预计仍将承压。在问答环节中，管理层预计第四季度贷款将减少，存款将持平至走高。

固定利率资产重定价和投资组合现金流预计将对生息资产收益率形成支撑，并延续至2027年。管理层表示，贷款到期可能会使2027年的重定价益处更加显著，但并未提供正式的2027年业绩指引。

风险与关注领域

• 更多的商业贷款偿还和非本地信贷退出可能会继续降低报告的贷款余额，并对生息资产结构造成压力。
• 较高的利率可能会影响现有借款人及即将到期的贷款。管理层表示，已针对更高利率对贷款展期进行了压力测试，并定期审查关注类信贷。
• 随着第三季度利率上升，投资组合的未实现亏损有所增加，但预期的本金现金流保持相对稳定且展期有限。
• 第四季度的存款季节性特征表现为季度初期较强、后期较弱，这给年末的存款余额带来了不确定性。
• 净冲销额微升至990万美元，同时信贷准备金包括了对已放款贷款和未放款建筑承诺更高的计提比率。

分析师问答亮点

存款增长：管理层表示，尽管对报告指引进行了微调，但潜在的核心存款预期并未改变。无息存款余额和客户数量的增长支撑了其对存款业务的信心。公司还强调，并未通过利率促销来推动存款增长。

净利息收入：在对2025年第四季度和2026年第二季度通过分支机构交易剥离的约10亿美元存款进行调整后，管理层认为FIBK已进入净利息收入扩张阶段。资产持续重定价和存款趋稳预计将支持这一趋势。

资本配置：管理层表示，FIBK仍处于资本过剩状态，并打算继续积极进行资本配置。资产负债表增长仍将是资本首要且最能增厚收益的用途，但未提供具体的季度回购目标。

贷款增长：商业贷款发放量同比大幅增加，但基础商业贷款组合整体仍大致持平至略有下降。管理层认为银行已接近拐点，并拥有足够的客户经理产能来支持增长。

效率：管理层未发现未来增长存在重大缺失的投资需求。费用可能仍会因正常的绩效加薪和通胀而上升，而网点优化和规模提升仍是持续的优先事项。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Nancy Vermeulen. Please go ahead.

Unknown Speaker

Thank you, Megan. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings conference call. As we begin, please note that the information provided during this call will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results or outcomes might differ materially from those expressed by those statements. I'd like to direct all our listeners to read the cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements contained in our most recent quarterly report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC and in our earnings release, as well as the risk factors identified in the quarterly report and our more recent periodic reports filed with the SEC. Relevant factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements in the earnings release and in our SEC filings. The company does not undertake to update any of the forward-looking statements made today. A copy of our earnings release, which contains non-GAAP financial measures, is available on our website at fibk.com. Information regarding our use of the non-GAAP financial measures may be found on the body of the earnings release, and a reconciliation to their most comparable GAAP financial measures is included at the end of the earnings release for your reference. Again this quarter, along with our earnings release, we've published an updated investor presentation that has additional disclosures that we believe will be helpful. The presentation can be accessed on our investor relations website, and if you have not downloaded a copy yet, we encourage you to do so. Please also note that as we discuss our financials today, unless otherwise noted, all of the prior period comparisons will be with the second quarter of 2026. Joining us from management this morning are Jim Reuter, our Chief Executive Officer, David De La Camera, our Chief Financial Officer, and other members of our management team. Now, I'll turn the call over to Jim Reuter. Jim.

James Reuter

Thank you, Nancy, and thank you for joining us on our earnings call today. In the third quarter of 2026, we continued to execute against our multiyear strategic plan, further improving the long-term earnings power of the franchise. Net interest margin expanded for the 10th consecutive quarter and non-interest-bearing deposits continued to increase, reflecting our focus on relationship growth. We maintained our disciplined approach to long-term value creation, investing in the markets where we see the greatest opportunity to deepen customer relationships and grow core deposits, while enhancing shareholder returns through additional share repurchases. The execution of our multi-year strategy has required deliberate changes to both the composition of the balance sheet and our geographic footprint. We have exited certain non-strategic markets, initiated a long-term branch optimization program that includes both targeted expansion and consolidation and refocused lending activities to customers that align with our relationship banking model. Our primary objective is to protect and strengthen the quality of the deposit franchise and add new customers. As we expected, new client acquisition remained strong in the Rocky Mountain region. New production continued to be concentrated among relationship-based clients represented by operating deposits and associated services. Going forward, our capital, talent, and branch investments will increasingly follow markets where we have an existing franchise advantage or an attractive opportunity for relationship growth. We believe the current expense base supports a production level that would stabilize earning asset mix when producing at capacity. While we expect our new teams to follow a typical ramp-up period, we believe the banking organization now has the capacity and market coverage required to support growth. This improvement operating model strengthens one of our key differentiators, combining the relationship focus, local decision making and high touch service of a profitable community bank with the sophisticated treasury, commercial banking and wealth management solutions of a larger institution. We have seen meaningful improvement in criticized loan levels over the past 12 months, which reflects our long-term commitment to disciplined credit decision making. Credit was stable in the third quarter, with little change in criticized loans and a modest reduction in nonperforming assets. Effective risk management continues to be a priority for us as strong credit discipline combined with a high quality customer deposit foundation will support performance in all economic cycles. We believe our low cost deposit base, which is granular across a large number of customers and geographies, provides a competitive advantage over the long term. In the third quarter, we also continued to optimize our capital structure through prudent execution of our share repurchase program. We repurchased approximately 2 million shares during the quarter, bringing total repurchases to approximately 10 million shares since the program began in late August 2025. Together with our dividend, repurchases are an important component of our total shareholder return. Through ongoing fixed asset repricing, capital deployment, operating model optimization, and continued focus on relationship banking, we are building a more efficient organization. We remain confident in our ability to continue to deliver improved earnings over time. And with that, I will hand the call over to David. David.

Unknown Speaker

Thanks, Jim. I'll start with our results for the quarter. The company reported net income of $62.2 million, or $0.65 per diluted share, in the third quarter, compared to $83.9 million, or $0.87 per diluted share in the second quarter. Net interest income increased by $4 million compared to the prior quarter, or 2% to $206.2 million. Yield on average loans increased 5 basis points to 5.67% and total funding costs decreased 4 basis points compared to the second quarter. Deposit costs benefited from the exit of a large high cost fully collateralized customer where our long term return objectives were not being met. Excluding this balance, deposits increased during the quarter. This was a unique customer from both the size and pricing perspective. That exit contributed an approximately 3 basis point improvement to our net interest margin in the quarter and did not have a material impact on net interest income. Our fully taxable equivalent net interest margin was 3.55% for the third quarter compared to 3.48% during the second quarter and 3.36% during the third quarter of 2025. As Jim mentioned, this marks our 10th consecutive quarter of net interest margin expansion and fixed asset repricing should remain a tailwind to earning asset yields and underlying margin improvement into 2027. Over the past few years, we have used cash flows from the investment portfolio to eliminate wholesale borrowings, and since we began reinvesting in 2025, we have targeted shorter duration, reducing the balance sheet sensitivity to changes in interest rates. Based on our current interest rate risk modeling, the balance sheet is broadly neutral from a net interest income perspective in both the near term and over the next 12 months, while continued asset repricing and reinvestment at current market yields provide sequential support to earning asset yields. Non-interest income was $43.3 million, a decrease of $18.4 million from the prior quarter. This decrease primarily reflected the $19.5 million gain recognized in the second quarter from the Nebraska branch transaction. Non-interest expense was $157.1 million for the third quarter, a decrease of $1.8 million from the prior quarter. Moving to the balance sheet, loans decreased by $296 million in the third quarter. A number of payoffs we anticipated in the third quarter shifted into the early fourth quarter. As we look to the loan decline in the quarter, this was influenced by a $47.7 million decline in indirect lending loans, a $64.9 million decline in the retained out-of-market portfolio and a $36.8 million decline in the residential portfolio. While total deposits decreased $52.8 million to $21.4 billion in the quarter, when adjusted for the exit of the one large collateralized deposit, deposits increased quarter over quarter. Our deposit mix further improved in the quarter as non-interest-bearing balances extended the increase we experienced in the prior quarter. The ratio of loans held for investment to deposits was 65.4% at the end of the quarter compared to 66.6% at the end of the prior quarter and 70.1% at the end of the third quarter of last year. Turning to credit, net charge-offs increased by $0.2 million in the third quarter to $9.9 million, or 28 basis points of average loans. The company recorded a $10.5 million provision for credit losses in the third quarter, driven primarily by the charge-offs, a 2 basis point increase in funded loan ACL to 1.30% and higher unfunded allowance due mostly to an increase in unfunded construction commitments. Criticized loans were stable in the quarter with an increase of $2.1 million or 0.2% from the prior quarter and declined 19% from a year ago. Non-performing assets declined 6% during the quarter. We repurchased approximately 2 million shares in the third quarter, totaling approximately $76 million, and repurchases since the initiation of the program in August 2025 totaled about $347 million. Share repurchases remain a key capital allocation tool to drive shareholder value. The investment portfolio unrealized loss position increased with interest rates during the quarter, while expected principal cash flows remained relatively stable with limited extension. Our strategy diversifies risk through shorter maturities, floating rate products, and lower capital intensity instruments. Together with natural back book runoff, this improves our ability to manage interest rate exposure. While meaningful, the recent move in interest rates has not changed our near-term strategic capital deployment plans at this time, and all else being equal, should support asset repricing and medium-term earnings. Finally, we declared a dividend of $0.47 per common share, which equates to a 5% annualized yield based on the average closing price of the company's common stock during the third quarter. Our common equity tier one capital ratio ended the third quarter at 14.36%, a decrease of 18 basis points from the prior quarter. Our leverage ratio is 9.49% at the end of the third quarter, compared to 9.59% at the end of the prior quarter. Our capital levels provide us with the flexibility to enhance shareholder returns while supporting long-term accretive growth. Moving to our guidance. In line with the prior quarter, our balance sheet expectations continue to include more meaningful payoffs within our commercial loan portfolio in the fourth quarter and further success in exiting some non-relationship and out-of-market credits. On the deposit side, our guidance continues to incorporate the positive trends within customer acquisition. Our net interest income guidance at the midpoint assumes expansion in NII into the fourth quarter as we continue to benefit from meaningful repricing, a stabilization of earning assets, and relatively strong non-interest-bearing balance performance. The September rate increase benefited asset yields late in the third quarter, while the related deposit repricing will be more fully reflected in the fourth quarter. As a result of that, as well as the impact from the larger high-cost deposit exiting in the third quarter, we expect a smaller sequential margin benefit in the fourth quarter than we realized in the third quarter. Our expense forecast includes continued investment in areas that support our customer acquisition efforts, and as we referenced last quarter, we will be opening two branches in Colorado in the first half of 2027 and are consolidating three additional locations in the fourth quarter of this year. We will maintain our expense discipline and have been pairing noted investments with efficiencies. Over the prior 12 months, net interest margin has improved 19 basis points, and average deposits per average diluted share has improved approximately 3%. Average deposits per branch improved 6%, and net interest income per share improved 8% compared to the third quarter of 2025. With that, I'll hand the call back to Jim.

James Reuter

Thank you, David. Our multi-year strategy continues to gain traction across the franchise and enhance our long-term earnings power. Our capital deployment remains disciplined, balancing investments in high-opportunity markets to support future growth with share repurchases. We believe that the continued growth and non-interest-bearing deposits that we saw in the third quarter provides encouraging evidence that our relationship banking efforts are resonating with clients. Our go-to-market strategy has increased scalability, improved market alignment, and expanded banker capacity to fulfill our primary objectives of enhancing our best-in-class deposit franchise. We are well positioned to execute on our strategy across a range of interest rate environments. We look forward to future earnings calls as disciplined relationship growth and earning asset yield expansion increasingly contribute to results. And now I would like to open the call for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. [Operator Instructions] We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Robert Andrew Terrell with Stephens. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

分析师问答

Andrew Terrell

Good morning, Andrew. I wanted to start just on deposits. I appreciate the color around some of the moving pieces here in the third quarter. Looks like the fourth quarter guide or the full year guide kind of implies you step up from here. I think if I recall, there's usually some seasonal headwinds in the fourth quarter. Can you just talk through what you're seeing kind of boots on the ground from a deposit standpoint or deposit growth standpoint here in the fourth quarter? And what kind of gives you confidence about deposits maybe inching up?

Unknown Speaker

Yes, sure, Andrew. I think as you look to kind of the midpoint of that guide in the fourth quarter, that's generally implying about flat year over year when you back out some of those branch sales and that large deposit. And then as we look kind of to the underlying core, we're seeing that strength and non-interest-bearing. Our seasonality tends to be strong early in the fourth quarter, a little bit weaker late. So we think kind of putting those together, it's the right range for us to land in.

Andrew Terrell

Got it. Okay. And then, there's a question. I think you called out towards the end of your remarks, just the NII per share growth over the past 12 months. But when we look at it just straight NII dollars, it's down versus 3Q '25 when you look at it. When you look over the next 12 months, can you get NII growth without balance sheet growth just as a function of what you see in terms of margin expansion? Or do you really need to get back to balance sheet growth in order to drive actual dollar NII growth?

Unknown Speaker

I think if you look at major B-transact on the second one and you do a B-6, so those are not a B-6. So kind of adjusting. I think if you look back over the past year, there's a few different things. The two major being the branch transactions, right? So we had the branch transaction in 4Q '25 and then the second one in 2Q '26. And so those together took approximately $1 billion out of deposits. And so if you kind of adjust the NII for that, I think we're already at a point of expanding and then quarter over quarter, given the NII expansion there, and then our view that we think the deposit profile is stabilized, we view it as we're into the NII expansion part of the story.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Matthew Clark

Just on the asset repricing, the slide that you have in your deck is very helpful, but can you give us a sense for the pickup and spreads we should assume given where rates are today?

Unknown Speaker

Yes, sure. So investment portfolio side, I think about 5 year plus, we'll call it the 40 to 50 basis point ranges is right. We have a combination of again, variable and belly of the curve type of instruments. And so that's an approximate range on that front. On the lending side would point to third quarter, excuse me, new loan yields, kind of in that mid 6% range. There's of course been a lot of curve volatility, but that kind of can give you a broad understanding of where spreads are.

Matthew Clark

Got it. And then just on deposit costs. If we could get the spot rate at the end of September, given that large balance that left and then your deposit beta assumption on the way up here, I think you did 27% on the way down.

Unknown Speaker

Sure. And so on the cost of deposits, interest-bearing deposit cost for the full month of September was 151 versus 149 in the quarter. And then as we think about the forward expectation, I would view it as generally aligned with the disclosure we have in our Q and our NII modeling. And so I think that's the right way to think about it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Rulis with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jeff Rulis

Good morning. I wanted to check in maybe on the buyback appetite. If we think about 10 million shares roughly in the last year. I want to look forward to '27 and maybe the dynamics change as you as you turn to growth at some point, a resumption of. And so just want to kind of check in with that appetite level and understanding that that could alter over the course of the year, but just initial thoughts on, you know, roughly half that level or something matching it in any initial thoughts.

Unknown Speaker

Sure, Jeff. So I think a couple, couple things. I think near term, you know, we have what I would view as a holistic approach to capital planning. So kind of given the different factors, including visibility into the investment portfolio, cash flows, improving profitability, et cetera. We're, can we continue to be comfortable deploying capital. So I think, you know, we continue to be in that active part of the capital deployment plan. I think as we go forward, our levels continue to support meaningful deployment. Balance sheet growth is always going to be the first and most accretive option for capital allocation. And so as we see that low cost core deposit and lending growth, that would at some point impact capital deployment. But in the near term, we continue to be in an excess capital position. So we intend to continue deploying capital.

Jeff Rulis

David, just to kind of quantify that, 2 million shares, a quarter, 5 million shares, for the next couple quarters is sort of the view. And then thereafter, maybe lessening as as growth comes on. Is that oversimplifying?

Unknown Speaker

I think each quarter will depend on the facts and circumstances. We don't have a specific quarterly target. It'll depend on market factors, what we're seeing for balance sheet growth, et cetera. But I think I would just point you to, we continue to be and intend to be active, but facts and circumstances will develop over time.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Liesch with Benchmark Company. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Thank you. Andrew, can you check if your mic is muted, please?

Unknown Speaker

Can you hear me now? Oh, sorry about that. No, my question was really on the, it sounds.

Operator

Yes, we can. Thank you.

Unknown Speaker

Like there were some payoffs expected in the loan book in the third quarter that were pushed into the fourth. Can you maybe quantify that amount so we know where we're starting off with here at the in the fourth quarter for loan balances?

Unknown Speaker

Yes Andrew, I think I would just point you to kind of if you look to where our guidance is for year end, that's informed by some of our view of payoffs and we've seen some of those early October and so those have come through as expected. I think if you look at where those are coming from, we've talked about that out-of-market portfolio that continues to be a main driver and something we're looking at, actively working through and having success there. And then, you know, continue to see that indirect amortization as well as other activity. Not a specific figure there, but I think the midpoint of the loan guide is a reasonable point, and that's what we think is our best estimate.

Unknown Speaker

Got it. And then the commentary on earning assets stabilizing, is that really a comment on deposit growth and where deposit balances are? And I guess, how does deposit growth look here going into the fourth quarter and into next year? So should we start to see earning assets rise?

Unknown Speaker

Yes, so earning assets from here is a function of deposit growth, of course, being. I think from an underlying deposit perspective, we've seen our second consecutive quarter of non-interest-bearing expansion, both periodically and on a year-over-year basis when adjusted for the sold deposits. And so we're very pleased with that. It's an important part of our strategy. And if you look to how we're executing out in the market, it's a full relationship approach. And so that's where we think that's very important. And so yes, you're right, it is a function of deposit growth. And then I think too early to provide a '27 guide, but our focus continues to be on enhancing and growing that deposit franchise. And so our intent is to grow our assets.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kelly Motta with KBW. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Kelly Motta

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question. Maybe sticking on the topic of deposits, the guide was reduced slightly and I know we're maintaining deposit balances and relationships is really key for the longer term outlook for the franchise. Just wondering, looks like it was mostly on the rate side, but if you could speak to that drivers of the reduction in the deposit guide for the year.

Unknown Speaker

Yeah, I think just a couple comments. One, I would say just kind of tweaking is in zooming in as we get closer at the end of the year, but two we talked about that large deposit exiting. So our actual expectation and view of what we'll call the underlying core deposits hasn't changed. We're continuing to see strength there. And again, a couple quarters in a row if not in the next.

James Reuter

Interest-bearing growth. And Kelly, one thing I would add to it is we've seen an improvement in the growth and number of clients as well, which is, you know, I think a direct result of some branding efforts and also frankly our bankers doing a great job of expanding relationships and as you know, growth and number of clients begets growth and deposits in the long term and generates new fee income opportunities. We're happy with what we're seeing at the core of the bank.

Kelly Motta

Yes, yes, totally, totally understood. I think switching to credit cards is a credit quality. You know, criticized remain elevated, although overall we haven't seen much by way of increased credit costs and the charge-offs have been within guide. Just wondering if you're starting, if it how it how you're thinking about the overall outlook for the health of the portfolio in the higher rate environment, if there's anything at the margins where you're seeing incremental stress, and then also wondering, you guys have been so proactive on the credit front, if that's been overall incrementally probably helpful here as we go into this rate cycle.

James Reuter

Yeah, thanks for the question, Kelly. Yeah, you're right. We saw less improvement in credit quality when compared to the previous quarter. However, I think I mentioned it in my opening comments were down in criticized loans 18% year over year and you know as I said on previous calls it's a dynamic part of the bank so it won't move in a straight linear path quarter to quarter but directionally over the long term, we anticipate continued improvement in that area and you know we remain focused on that primary source of repayment and you know, that focuses on whether the property and or businesses performing as expected. As to the higher rates, that's a good question. And, you know, just offer a few thoughts on that front. There's no doubt higher rates can impact existing loans on the books. You know, as to the criticized loans, these loans are consistently reviewed by our bankers and credit teams to discussed and so you know, confident we have a good handle on the impact of higher rates across all economic risk factors. And then in addition, we stress upcoming maturities for higher rates. Becomes part of the renewal conversation with borrowers as we approach the maturity date, so you said it. I'm a big believer in proactive credit risk management and I think you've seen that over the past two years because that's what sets you up to perform well in all economic cycles.

Kelly Motta

Great. Thank you so much for the callers. I'll step back.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Coffey with Janney Montgomery Scott LLC. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Timothy Coffey

Thank you. Derek, can we follow up on the kind of topic on the mix of earning assets? Because as we see in the last several quarters, the percentage of loans and earning assets has come down, and now you've built up a securities portfolio that's putting off regular cash. Is it possible we could start to see the mix of earning assets to start to turn towards more loans relative to the sources of liquidity?

Unknown Speaker

I think near term that's not our expectation, you know, in the fourth quarter. So the guidance, our loans decline, deposits, you know, flat to higher in the fourth quarter. And so, you know, I think into '27. It'll just be depend on pace of lending versus deposit growth. Of course, we're not going to provide a forecast today or a guide today on '27. But we're seeing good underlying activity in lending. But I think near term, we would expect continued pressure on the mix. Long term, our intent is to stabilize or improve that.

Timothy Coffey

Okay. And then a question about the chart on page six, the average deposits per branch. In the current rate environment, I mean, is that is $79 million the right number per branch given that the break-even point for a branch is probably higher since interest rates are higher?

James Reuter

Yeah, I mean, the break-even rate per branch depends on the cost of the branch and if you look at our footprint, we would have some pretty low cost branches in the mix. You know, I think the median peers about $150 million, and you know, we've always said given our footprint of higher mix of some rural and mid markets, our average branch size will not look like that of the peers. But like I said, the underlying expense structure is also different. But, you know, the branch optimization efforts you've seen us deploy here, whether it's closing and consolidating, that's helped improve that about 10% over the last 18 months. And, you know, our goal would be to improve that number over time.

Timothy Coffey

All right, great. Thanks, gentlemen.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Samuel Varga with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Samuel Varga

Hey, good morning. I just wanted to go back to the comments you just made on the earning asset mix and how it's shifting towards securities in 4Q. I guess in that sort of backdrop, the implications of margin? What is the true incentive for pushing deposit growth?

Unknown Speaker

So I think deposit growth is always going to be our number one priority that's what creates near and long term franchise value and so I think across all environments will look to drive customer acquisition and deposit growth and then the mix again fourth quarter is just our view that we see some near term payoffs, especially in that out-of-market and other portfolios. And so that we think drives reported lending balances around the fourth quarter.

James Reuter

Yes, and I would just add that we're not running rate promotions to grow deposits. That's why we called out its two consecutive quarters of growth in non-interest-bearing deposits. That's the granular, low-cost funding that I think is the power of the franchise, and we're going to keep building on that.

Samuel Varga

Thank you for that. And just a quick one on unfunded commitments. Could you give us an update for how those trended in 3Q and what the pipelines look.

Unknown Speaker

Sure. So we saw an increase in the third quarter in that construction line, and we noted that as a driver of the increase in unfunded provisions. So we were pleased with that. Those were a variety of well-priced, well-structured projects. And so it's an example of some of that underlying improvement we're seeing in customer acquisition in production, that'll of course fund more as a '27 impact, but we're seeing some encouraging signs there. Again, would point to that unfunded provision increase.

Samuel Varga

Thank you for taking my question.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Terence McEvoy with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Terence McEvoy

Great. Good morning. First question, underneath the planned loan payoffs and paydowns, what is the underlying growth? And I'm trying to get a sense for what you refer to on your guidance slide as improved commercial production. And is that component, is that growth accelerating and can that accelerate? Acceleration of growth continue into next year. We'd love to have some context behind that.

Unknown Speaker

Sure, so I'll start with a couple of comments. I think as we look year over year, we have seen a material increase in commercial production. I think there's one more increase we're looking for to have that underlying portfolio grow. But from a reported perspective and noted it a little bit in the prepared remarks, there are a series of portfolios in the near term impacting reporting balances with reported balances, excuse me, which points to that underlying commercial book being closer to flat but still modestly declining at this point as we look to '27, would note the addition of RMs and capacity we think sits in the business and so. You know, we're not today giving a specific point. We think that turns, but we think we are closer than further away. And we think we have the right capacity in the business.

Terence McEvoy

Great, thank you. And that's what I was looking for. And then maybe as a follow up, what are the remaining opportunities to improve efficiency? And basically, do you think you can generate positive operating leverage next year without meaningful balance sheet growth?

Unknown Speaker

Sure. So, I would say again, still too early to provide a '27 guide, but I think as we look to our margin, think through '27, there's continued fixed asset repricing. I think there it actually could become a little bit more meaningful in 2027 as you look to the quantity of loan maturities and then continued significant cash flow in the investment portfolio and a supportive yield curve and then stability and modest growth in the underlying core low cost deposit franchise is helpful. The combination of those we think is very powerful to NII, and again, just from a high level perspective, there's a significant quantity of trapped earnings in those assets that are curing currently and through '27 and on. And so we think we're well positioned. Again, don't want to provide a '27 guide today, but we think there are some very strong underlying factors supporting '27 and forward.

Terence McEvoy

Appreciate that. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Rulis with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jeff Rulis

Thanks, Jim. I just wanted to circle back to a comment you made in the prepared remarks about the expense-based supporting earning asset growth from here. You've had the branch sales in the rear view and you've kind of been bouncing non-interest expense in that $157 million, $158 million a quarter. Maybe trying to get a sense for what expense growth looks like. I mean that maybe that comment implies that you kind of hold the line and can grow off that. Any other detail to help on what I think what you meant by that would be helpful.

James Reuter

Yeah, thanks, Jeff. First, I just mentioned we'll be providing '27 guide in January in the first quarter. But what that statement meant is, for the growth we want to go get, we have what we need in terms of RMs, technology, infrastructure. So there's no step up needed from an investment standpoint to grow the bank beyond where we are today.

Jeff Rulis

OK, appreciate the no guidance. Effectively, well, yes, I'll step back.

Unknown Speaker

Jeff, would just add, I think year over year and again, we won't provide the '27 figure, but it is not reasonable to expect normal inflationary factors on our expense base, so we wouldn't be holding to a nominal figure year over year when you get normal merit and things like that. But again, we don't view there's a significant missing piece of investment needed outside of normal factors.

Jeff Rulis

Okay, helpful. Thank you, David.

James Reuter

All right. Well, thank you for joining the call today and thank you for the questions. And as always, we welcome calls from investors and analysts. So please reach out if you have any follow-up questions and thank you for tuning into the call today. Have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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