OSBC 2026年第三季度业绩电话会:净息差5.27%,信贷指标改善
Old Second Bancorp公布2026年第三季度GAAP净利润为2890万美元,每股收益0.56美元。税等值净息差环比上升4个基点至5.27%。尽管信贷指标改善且贷款核销基本可控,但高贷存比与存款竞争加剧预计将使第四季度净息差回落约5个基点。公司稳步推进股份回购,并将第四季度股息提高14%。
Old Second Bancorp, Inc.(纳斯达克代码:OSBC)公布2026年第三季度GAAP净利润为2890万美元,即摊薄后每股收益0.56美元。5.27%的税等值净息差及改善的信贷指标被1270万美元的贷款净核销部分抵消。
核心要点
- GAAP净利润为2890万美元,即摊薄后每股收益0.56美元。扣除MSR(房贷服务权)估值调整后,调整后净利润为2850万美元,即摊薄后每股收益0.55美元。
- 税等值净息差环比上升4个基点,同比上升22个基点,达到5.27%。净利息收入从上一季度的8330万美元增至8400万美元。
- 贷款净核销总计1270万美元,其中包括920万美元的工商业贷款(C&I)核销和310万美元与机动运动设备贷款相关的核销。管理层表示,主要的工商业不良信贷问题目前已基本解决。
- 信贷指标大幅改善:分类贷款减少5780万美元,不良贷款减少1680万美元,关注类贷款减少6130万美元(即下降38%)。
- 贷存比上升至98.3%,限制了资金灵活性。管理层预计第四季度净息差将下降约5个基点,但在近期和中期仍将保持在5.20%以上。
- OSBC在该季度回购了150万股股票。今年迄今的回购量达到340万股,平均价格为22.74美元;同时,公司选择将第四季度普通股股息提高14%。
核心财务数据
| 指标 | 2026年第三季度结果 | 变化或背景 |
|---|---|---|
| GAAP净利润 | 2890万美元 | 摊薄后每股收益0.56美元 |
| 调整后净利润 | 2850万美元 | 摊薄后每股收益0.55美元;不含MSR估值调整 |
| 资产收益率 | 1.69% | — |
| 平均有形普通股股东权益回报率 | 15.77% | — |
| 净利息收入 | 8400万美元 | 高于2026年第二季度的8330万美元,同比增加130万美元 |
| 税等值净息差 | 5.27% | 环比上升4个基点,同比上升22个基点 |
| 效率比率 | 52.34% | 调整后税等值比率为52.0%,而2026年第二季度为50.8% |
| 贷款净核销 | 1270万美元 | 包含920万美元工商业贷款核销和310万美元机动运动设备贷款核销 |
| 信贷损失准备 | 6420万美元 | 占贷款额的1.23%,而2026年第二季度为7040万美元及1.34% |
| 贷存比 | 98.3% | 相比之下,2026年第二季度为96.4%,去年同期为91.4% |
| 平均贷款额 | 增加550万美元 | 环比增长0.1% |
| 平均存款额 | 减少7800万美元 | 环比下降1.4% |
| 每股有形账面价值 | $14.75 | 低于2026年6月30日的14.77美元 |
| 总存款成本率 | 1.02% | 相比之下,2026年第二季度为1.00%,2025年第三季度为1.33% |
业务与经营业绩
贷款发放情况好于期末余额几乎持平所显示的状况。该季度总贷款减少了约780万美元,原因在于提前还款和清偿金额较高,以及财团贷款组合减少530万美元,抵消了新发放贷款。管理层表示,第四季度的储备项目涵盖小微企业、中型市场工商业贷款、医疗保健、投资性商业地产、赞助商融资和投资租赁等广泛领域。
平均存款减少了7800万美元,主要归因于季节性流出以及对利率敏感度高(高Beta值)、实质为批发性质的存款类别持续流失。管理层认为收购后的绝大部分存款流失已告一段落,预计存款将从第四季度开始增长,尽管部分增长可能需要提供更高的利率定价。
财富管理业务继续录得环比和同比增长。抵押贷款银行收入环比增加43.6万美元,同比增加76.2万美元,主要是由于MSR按市值计价的估值分别增长了77.5万美元和100万美元。
在机动运动设备贷款方面,申请量较上年略有增加,而实际放款量大致持平。由于消费者出现承压迹象以及信用报告显示债务水平升高,该公司拒绝的申请量增加了约7%。此外,OSBC还与Dukat USA签署了一项多年背书合作协议,管理层预计该协议将在2026年晚些时候支持放款额,并在2027年做出更显著的贡献。
非利息费用环比增加37万美元。薪资、高管激励、员工保险、场地占用费、房产税和办公设备成本的增加,被上一季度多项一次性项目消除后的其他费用下降所部分抵消。
管理层业绩指引
- 在更强劲的储备项目以及迈入2027年第一季度预期势头的支持下,管理层将2026年第四季度的贷款增长目标定为低个位数。
- 由于边际资金成本、存款竞争以及股票回购对无息资金的影响,OSBC预计第四季度净息差将回落约5个基点。
- 管理层预计近期和中期的净息差将保持在5.20%以上。预计未来三至四个季度,约45%的贷款组合和25%的证券组合将重新定价。
- 尽管面临更广泛的成本压力,管理层预计费用将适度增长,并认可3%-4%的增长区间。
- 公司预计存款将在第四季度开始增长,目前认为与收购相关的绝大部分存款流失已完成。
- 管理层表示,投资者合理预期公司每年回购约5%的股份,同时保留实施小型补充性收购的能力。
风险与关注领域
本季度1270万美元的净核销仍是盈利的主要压力来源。尽管管理层认为工商业贷款的主要信贷风险已基本解决,但预计机动运动设备贷款的核销每个季度仍将持续。
98.3%的贷存比已接近管理层设定的上限,这意味着未来贷款增长将越来越依赖按当前边际利率定价的资金。因此,尽管资产持续重新定价,但加剧的存款竞争仍可能对净息差构成压力。
利率上升降低了证券组合的价值,并导致每股有形账面价值下降。股票回购也减少了股东权益和无息资金,在净息差与每股收益之间形成了权衡取舍。
费用通胀仍是另一个制约因素。管理层表示,预计2027年员工医疗保险成本将增加近20%,需要在其他方面控制成本,以将整体费用增长保持在既定范围内。
分析师问答环节要点
分析师关注信贷损失是否已出现拐点。管理层列举了分类贷款、关注类贷款和不良贷款的减少,并表示对贷款组合的感觉优于过去几年。管理层还表明,准备金率不大可能从1.23%大幅下降,部分原因在于需要不断补充机动运动设备贷款的经常性核销。
在息差敏感性方面,管理层表示,约有一半的贷款组合为浮动利率,且通常落后SOFR(担保隔夜融资利率)30天进行重新定价。低收益固定资产的重新定价应能提供顺风效应,但这预计将被更高的边际存款成本和回购带来的资金影响所抵消。
管理层表示,财团贷款组合在资产负债表中的占比将继续下降,因为公司认为该业务属于交易性质,无法提升特许经营价值。然而,预计该组合不会完全清零,其缩减对总贷款增长的阻碍作用应当会减轻。
关于战略机遇,管理层表示,收购讨论依然活跃,但并不比一年前更强劲。公司专注于较小规模的补充性并购,并希望在2027年能出现合适的机会。
业绩电话会议完整文字记录
完整财报电话会议逐字稿
管理层陈述
Operator
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Old Second Bancorp, Inc.'s Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. On the call today are Mr. Jim Eccher, the company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Brad Adams, the company's Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Darin Campbell, the company's Head of National Specialty Lending.
I will start with a reminder that Old Second's comments today will contain forward-looking statements about the company's business, strategies and prospects, which are based on management's existing expectations in the current economic environment. These statements are not a guarantee of future performance, and results may differ materially from those projected. Management would also ask you to refer to the company's SEC filings for a full discussion of the company's risk factors. The company does not undertake any duty to update such forward-looking statements.
On today's call, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are described and reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in the earnings release, which is available on our website at oldsecond.com on the homepage and under the Investor Relations tab.
Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Jim Eccher.
James Eccher
Okay. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. As customary, I have several prepared opening remarks. I'll give you my overview of the quarter and then turn it over to Brad for additional details. I will then conclude with certain summary comments and thoughts about the future before we open it up to questions.
From a GAAP perspective, net income was $28.9 million or $0.56 per diluted share in the third quarter. Return on assets was 1.69% Third quarter 2026 return on average tangible common equity was 15.77% and the efficiency ratio was 52.34%. Excluding all adjusting items, which for the quarter was limited to MSR valuation adjustments, net income for the third quarter was $28.5 million or $0.55 per diluted share.
Third quarter 2026 earnings were impacted by $12.7 million of net loan charge-offs, which consisted of commercial and industrial loan net charge-offs of $9.2 million, primarily related to relationship one relationship we have discussed on prior calls, $6 million of that $9.2 million was previously reserved for. This credit is a warehousing and distribution business that has seen its cash flow position deteriorate over the last year. We feel this credit is now largely behind us. The remaining portion of the charge-off is related to the powersport business, which totaled $3.1 million, which is comparable to the prior quarter powersport charge-off level.
Tangible book value per share decreased slightly to $14.75 as of September 30 from $14.77 as of June 30, and the tangible equity to tangible asset ratio decreased 19 basis points from last quarter from 11.19% to 11%. The modest declines in these metrics are primarily due to stock repurchases of approximately $39.5 million and the change in the value of the securities portfolio due to higher rates during the quarter.
Our financials reflect an exceptionally strong net interest margin at 5.27% for the third quarter of 2026. That's a 4 basis point improvement from last quarter and 22 basis point increase over the prior year on a tax equivalent basis. Pre-provision net revenues increased in the third quarter of 2026 from the prior quarter, primarily due to day count, slightly higher average loan balances and lower average savings and time deposit balances. Total cost of deposits was 102 basis points for the third quarter compared to 100 basis points for the prior linked quarter and 133 basis points for the third quarter of 2025.
For the third quarter of 2026 compared to last quarter, tax equivalent income on average earning assets increased and interest expense on average interest-bearing liabilities increased nominally. Loan-to-deposit ratio is now 98.3% at the end of the third quarter compared to 96.4% last quarter and 91.4% as of September 30, 2025. Total loans declined nominally about $7.8 million during the third quarter. Tax equivalent loan yields increased 3 basis points during the quarter compared to the linked quarter, but reflected a 1 basis point decrease for the quarter year-over-year. The increase in yields in comparison to the prior quarter is driven by higher short-term rates and repricing of lower yielding loans. We expect this to continue in the near term.
Turning to credit. Asset quality trends improved significantly during the quarter, excluding the elevated charge-offs resulting from the single credit we just discussed. Classified loans decreased $57.8 million and nonperforming loans decreased $16.8 million. Criticized loans, an early indicator of stress, declined by $61.3 million or 38% during the quarter. As a percentage of loans, classified loans have not been this low since before COVID. Needless to say, we are extremely pleased with the credit trajectory and its implication for future quarters.
The allowance for credit losses on loans was $64.2 million as of September 30 or 1.23% of total loans from $70.4 million at the end of the second quarter, which was 1.34% of loans. Unemployment and GDP forecast used in future loss rate assumptions remained fairly static from last quarter with no material changes in the unemployment assumptions on the upper end of the range based on recent Fed projections. Noninterest income declined $191,000 in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the prior linked quarter and nominally from the prior year linked quarter.
Wealth Management continues to reflect strong performance and growth quarter-over- linked quarter and prior year linked quarters. Mortgage banking income increased $436,000 compared to linked quarter and increased $762,000 compared to the period -- prior year period, primarily due to the changes in mortgage servicing rights mark-to-market valuations. MSR mark-to-market valuations increased $775,000 quarter-over- linked quarter and $1 million over the prior year period. Total noninterest expense for the third quarter of 2026 increased $370,000 from the prior linked quarter, driven by higher regular salaries, higher officer incentive and employee insurance costs within salaries and employee benefits and an increase in occupancy, furniture and equipment due to continued capital projects and growth in real estate taxes and office equipment costs. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in other expense from several one-off expenses in the prior quarter.
Our efficiency ratio continues to be excellent as the tax equivalent efficiency ratio adjusted to exclude core deposit intangibles, OREO costs and the adjustments to net income, as noted earlier, was 52.0% % for the third quarter compared to 50.8% for the second quarter. Overall, the company continues to perform at an exceptionally high level. Operating leverage is strong. The margin was largely stable and fee businesses are performing well. The improvement in key credit metrics, including reductions in classified and criticized during the third quarter will allow us to finish the year over the next quarter in a much better position to demonstrate the full earnings power of Old Second.
I'll now turn it over to Brad for more color.
Bradley Adams
Thanks, Jim. Net interest income increased to $84 million relative to last quarter at $83.3 million. It also increased $1.3 million from last year. Loan yields increased 3 basis points, while securities yields declined 5 basis points in the third quarter. Total yield on earning assets increased 6 basis points. over the linked quarter to 640 basis points. Cost of interest-bearing deposits increased modestly at 2 basis points and total cost of interest-bearing liabilities increased 1 basis point to 174. The end result was a 4 basis point increase in the tax equivalent NIM to 5.27% versus 5.23% last quarter. Obviously, we believe this continues to be an exceptional margin performance.
Average loans increased $5.5 million or only 0.1% over linked quarter and average deposits, however, decreased by $78 million or 1.4%. Deposit runoff is largely seasonal this quarter with some residual runoff and high beta effectively wholesale deposit captions. Loan origination activity in the third quarter was much better than it appears and in line with budget. but was offset by significant paydown and payoff activity. Loan prepayments through the first 3 quarters have already reached full year 2025 levels.
Certainly, the market environment, including ongoing interest rate volatility and due to high energy prices and broad-based inflation has resulted in outsized payoffs, it appears to us. Our lending teams are continuing to work very hard and pipelines for the fourth quarter are building, which should also bode well for the first quarter of 2027 as well.
From a stock repurchase perspective, we acquired 1.5 million shares during the third quarter, resulting in a reduction to equity and a growth in treasury stock of $39.2 million. Year-to-date repurchases totaled 3.4 million shares at an average price of $22.74. That's a $74.7 million reduction in equity. This has a negative impact on the net interest margin, obviously, but a positive impact on earnings per share. We do expect to continue being active in the repurchase of shares given our extremely strong capital position and current and expected earnings trends.
In addition, based on the strength of the balance sheet and resilient income statement trends, Old Second elected to increase the common dividend in the fourth quarter of 2026 by 14% as we continue to deliver growth commensurate with the bank's performance. Overall, margin trends still feel very good. Obviously, rates along the curve went up quite a bit with recent instability in the Middle East and previous expectations for rate cuts have reversed course into rate hikes. If those trends remain stable from here and high-cost deposit attrition slows, I would expect to maintain exceptional margin performance.
I do believe at this point, however, that we are likely to give back 5 basis points or so with our current loan growth expectations and the rapid rise we have seen in deposit competition recently. Loan growth in the fourth quarter of '26 is being targeted in the low single-digit level. Expense growth will continue to be modest in the quarters ahead.
That's it for my view, and I'll turn the call back over to Jim.
James Eccher
Thanks, Brad. In closing, we feel despite the isolated charge-off was a pretty solid quarter for the company. We're optimistic due to the improvement in credit metrics this quarter, and the rest of the bank is performing ahead of our expectations. We remain positive about loan growth opportunities and the potential for more strategic growth opportunities as well.
That concludes our prepared comments this morning. So I will turn it over to the moderator and open it up for questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Nathan Race with Piper Sandler.
分析师问答
Nathan Race
Jim, obviously, disappointing charge-off number. Obviously, you mentioned you had this previously allocated for. And we've been through several quarters with some credit noise. But just given the reductions in both nonperformers and criticized loans in the quarter, can you just help us in terms of your degree of confidence that we're now in a position today where we can expect charge-offs to be consistently lower. I think we've talked about a range of maybe 35 to 40 basis points is kind of a normalized range going forward. But can you just speak to kind of your degree of confidence that we can expect that to unfold going forward?
James Eccher
Sure, Nate. Yes. I mean obviously, the one charge-off, this has been a lingering credit that we've been working out for the better part of the year. We -- the company is under contract to be sold, albeit at a much lower price. So -- we feel we've got this now largely behind us. I think what we're most encouraged about, Nate, is a significant reductions in classifieds and even a special mention, you got to go back to October of 2019, way before COVID to have classified at this level.
So we think we've turned the corner at an inflection point with a lot of this credit and understanding we are going to have a certain degree of powersport charge-offs on a quarter-over-quarter, but we feel as good about the loan book today as we have in several years.
Nathan Race
Okay. Great. That's helpful. And Brad, a little surprised to hear your comments around giving back 5 bps of margin in the fourth quarter, just given how low beta your deposit franchise has historically been. I appreciate deposit pricing competition is increasing these days, but just given how much repricing you have in assets tied to short-term rates, curious if you can kind of just unpack some of that a bit just in terms of what your beta expectations are for the fourth quarter. And again, if you could remind us kind of what you have repricing on the left side of the balance sheet tied to short-term rates.
Bradley Adams
So there's a couple of things going on. What I would say from the expectation of giving back a few basis points, the drivers of it, one is how many shares we've repurchased. Obviously, we're giving up a fair amount of free funding in order to do that. That has a negative implication. The other thing is the loan-to-deposit ratio is pretty much nearing the ceiling at this point. So for the first time in a while, we are participating at the marginal funding rate relative to our loan growth expectations. And I think that's probably the biggest driver in what I'm talking about. There are, as you point out, things on the other side that are to the good.
At any given time, 50% of our book is variable. And generally, it reprices with a 30-day lag, and then we move relative to SOFR, but SOFR is ahead of what the Fed has been doing, and that rate has been high for a while. So we've been seeing that benefit for quite some time. That being said, we do have -- Jim was positively by the other day talking about this 3.5% commercial real estate loan that repriced in the 6s. And we are seeing some of that. And that's obviously a big benefit.
James Eccher
Yes. I mean I would say 45% of our loan book is going to reprice in the next 3 or 4 quarters. 25% of our securities portfolio is repriced at the same time. So there will be a tailwind there. The net-net of all that is we're going to hang out pretty high at these levels, but guessing within plus or minus 5 basis points. Clearly, I've been pretty bad at it over the last year or so, but I've been bad on the right side of it. So maybe I'm hedging a bit, maybe I'm right. But I still think we're solidly above the 5.20% margin for the near and intermediate term.
Nathan Race
Okay. Great. And then can you guys just kind of speak to just the buyback appetite, obviously, really stepped up on the buybacks in 3Q and over the course of this year. To what extent do you guys want to continue down the path at a similar clip to what we've seen recently? And within that context, curious how you want to balance buybacks with perhaps an acquisition at some point, perhaps sometime next year?
Bradley Adams
I have plenty of capital to do both, Nate. I mean, as you can see, even this quarter, we didn't shrink capital and we bought back 3% of shares. I think it's reasonable for investors to expect us to take out 5% of shares a year and still have the ability to execute on the type of M&A that we're looking for, which as we've talked about in the past, is relatively smaller than what we would have talked about a couple of years ago. It's kind of fill-in type stuff is from our perspective is where the value would be at this point.
Operator
Our next question is coming from [ Mark Shutley ] with KBW.
Unknown Analyst
So loans were roughly flat this quarter with prior prepayments. And I think you said the outlook is low single-digit growth from here. But I was just curious sort of how the pipeline is looking and where you expect to see that growth in the coming quarters.
James Eccher
Yes. I think as Brad pointed out in his comments, loan production was better than maybe what the results showed, and it's probably one of the stronger quarters in the last 6, 7 quarters. I think what we saw was outsized prepayments 2x of what we would normally see in a quarter. Couple that with the fact that we've been actively trying to work down our syndications portfolio. As you know, we have had a significant syndication portfolio come over with West Suburban. We reduced that $53 million this quarter alone. So had we not had that and any outsized payoffs, we would have had a really good quarter.
As far as the pipeline is concerned, as of right now, it is looking like one of the more solid fourth quarters we've had in a long time, and we're optimistic we're going to get out of the gates pretty well in the first quarter next year as well.
Operator
Our next question is coming from Jeff Rulis with D.A. Davidson.
Jeff Rulis
I wanted to kind of maybe a jump off of the loan demand and higher rates. I guess, initially, are you seeing any pullback on the consumer powersports from a loan demand standpoint? Is that any impact that you're seeing out there?
Darin Campbell
Yes. This is Darin Campbell. Yes. No, we're not seeing any pullback at this point. Application volume for us this year is up a little bit over last year from the application process. I will say we've turned down more applications this year compared to last year just for consumer distress. So we're accounting for more debt that we're seeing on credit reports. And so we've turned down, as I said, about 7%. But originations is very similar to the same time last year. Applications is up a little bit. So overall, strong. Our collective card business is actually up quite a bit this year as well. So we're seeing a lot of demand in that area as well. So overall good.
James Eccher
Yes, Jeff, I think when you look at the commercial bank, our pipeline build right now is pretty broad-based. We're seeing it building in small business, middle market C&I, health care, investment CRE and even sponsor and investment leasing. So we're as pleased as we could be with -- and normally, fourth quarter is pretty soft, but pipelines are really pretty good right now.
Jeff Rulis
Appreciate that. And I guess the other side of that is, I think, Jim, you noted that nice to see the benefit of repricing in the book. The flip side of that is any thoughts on kind of repricing risk on the credit side as maybe higher rates as customers face that. I guess, any color on -- are you helping with borrowers in terms of that repricing risk potentially?
James Eccher
Yes. I mean keep in mind, our loan book is very short duration. So a significant part of some of these credits have already been in a higher rate environment. But we stress test constantly. We feel early-stage indicators are low and no concerns at this point. Darin, do you want to add on the consumer?
Darin Campbell
Yes. I think, Brian, just one of the things that's worth mentioning on the call, we're very excited to announce that we signed a multiyear endorsed agreement with Dukat USA. So we -- something we've been working on for quite some time to get to the finish line. That partnership was announced and launched last week. The dealer feedback that we've received from the dealer network has been tremendous. The application flow has already started to come in. So that's been exciting.
And as we think about growth going forward, even in our fourth quarter, this will give us a little boost for the fourth quarter. But if you think about for '27, there will be a substantial boost for us in originations next year. And Dukat is one of the best motorcycle brands that's in the market. So we could not be more excited about this opportunity for us.
Jeff Rulis
Okay. Sounds good on the production side. But again, on Jim, the credit and the repricing on the credit front, feel good about that given the short duration.
Bradley Adams
Yes, this is Brad. I think what you've seen from us in terms of the spike in classified and criticized over the past 3 years has been that very thing. But again, I think it's pretty safe to say we're through that.
Operator
Our next question is coming from Ken Kohut with Raymond James.
Kenneth Kohut
I'm filling in for Danny Tamayo. A lot of my questions have been asked and answered, but maybe just on deposits. You've been talking about optimizing your deposit base really since the Evergreen acquisition closed to more resemble the legacy Old Second deposit base. And we saw another step down in deposits this quarter, and you specifically called out the runoff of higher cost funding acquired from Evergreen. So I'm just wondering how much work is left to do on that front? And should we expect to see further deposit runoff in the coming quarters?
Bradley Adams
I think you'll see deposit growth in the fourth quarter, and I think that most of the attrition post that acquisition is largely behind us. My expectation would be that deposits would grow from here. Some of that will come at a little bit more rate. And obviously, we remain on the lookout to supplement our deposit base through M&A activity as well.
Operator
Our next question is coming from Brandon Rud with Stephens Inc.
Brandon Rud
The first one may be kind of an adjacent question to a prior one. Just on the reserve, it's come down for the past few quarters now. Are there any remaining specific allocations within that? Or is this 123 kind of the steady state you kind of anticipate going forward?
James Eccher
Yes. I mean there's certainly some reserve allocations built into the portfolio, but I think the drawdown in that reserve is largely reflective of the fact that our classified have come down significantly, right? We won't run much lower from here just due to the fact we'll continually have to replace powersport charge-offs quarter-over-quarter, but I don't see a majority drawdown of reserves.
Brandon Rud
Okay. Perfect. And then just one on expenses. It came in a touch higher than we had in our model. Is this like $51.5 million a good expectation for the near term and then growing 3%, 4% annually after that?
Operator
Yes. Our next question is coming from Brian Martin with Brean Capital.
Brian Martin
Brad, maybe just one follow-up on the expense one. Just the resolution of some of these credits that you've gone through the last couple of quarters, is that a tailwind to the expense line? I mean I get your comments about the outlook, but is that part of the reason, I guess, maybe we get a little improvement or if there is any on the expense side?
Bradley Adams
So I mean that's the big delta between kind of the way you look at things and the way I look at things, Brian, there's always ins and outs and what avenues in every quarter. And this quarter, for example, our third-party expense is elevated. The next quarter, it will be something else, but there's always stuff coming and going. And I look at it much more granularly than probably it appears. Like my income statement has like 42 captions for expenses and yours has like 4.
So there's always stuff moving around. I think that in a world where inflation in any real sense is probably between 4% and 5%, being in that 3% to 4% range is a pretty good thing, given I mean I don't know if you noticed your employer is probably cutting your health care benefits and increasing your costs, but our costs are projected in that caption to be up pretty close to 20% next year, which is shocking. So there's a lot of things going on. And I actually feel like kind of that 3% to 4% range is doing pretty damn good, and I feel great about it.
Brian Martin
Yes. That's what I meant, Brad. I guess it seems like you're going to have other stuff this gives you a little bit of a tailwind or at least a little help to offset some of those other items. So just...
Bradley Adams
I mean it helps us deliver on that guidance I just gave for sure. I wouldn't expect -- I think we're doing a lot of heavy lifting to be at that level is the point I'd like to make.
Brian Martin
Got you. That's clear. And then just on the opportunity set on -- I know you talked about strategic opportunities, Jim, just the opportunity set in terms of what's out there. Are you seeing more opportunities today? Are there less out there today? Just kind of how is the environment on opportunities in the...
James Eccher
I mean, Brian, you know Chicago as well as anybody. There's been a handful of transactions obviously announced, and we continue to have conversations. I wouldn't say it's more robust now than it was a year ago. They're active and ongoing. We're hopeful that opportunity arises next year.
Brian Martin
Yes. Okay. And then the last 2 for me were just the new rates on loans and, I guess, what you're putting on the securities book, Brad, just we kind of reconcile those numbers Jim gave in terms of what's repricing here. What are new rates on securities you're thinking about it kind of 5%-ish and then on loans?
Bradley Adams
I'm not adding the securities book at this point, given where we are in deposit competition. It would be largely static in terms of what you'd see there. If there are flows coming out, will be replaced at similar rates. So I wouldn't expect any real movement in the securities book. In terms of loans, it's still in the kind of mid-6s type range would be my guess.
Brian Martin
Okay. Got you. And the last one was just on the syndication book. I know you mentioned it's been running off, Jim, obviously. Just where it stands today? And I guess that runoff is just going to continue. It's just a steady decline in that book. Is that how to think about that, it's not going to really impact the.
James Eccher
Yes. I mean at our peak, we were $550 million in syndications. We've reduced that by over 60% since the end of '21 roughly $285 million. Will it go to 0? No. It's just not going to be a material part of our balance sheet. We just view that business as transactional non-franchise enhancing type business, but we'll continue to do some of it. It's just not going to be a primary focus.
Brian Martin
Okay. And the payoffs will just -- I guess that's what I was getting at. The payoffs won't be a major factor in terms of -- as we go forward here, like maybe it has been as you owned it.
James Eccher
It won't be as much of a headwind as it has been you're correct.
Operator
Okay. As we have no further questions on the lines at this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Jim Eccher for any closing remarks.
James Eccher
Okay. Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. We look forward to talking to you again next quarter. Goodbye.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's call. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.
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