康坦戈白银与黄金 (CTGO) 2026财年第二季度业绩电话会议：随着套期保值结束维持业绩指引

核心要点

• Contango Silver & Gold在2026年第二季度的Manh Choh项目30%归属产量约为8,900盎司。公司以每盎司4,328美元的平均现货金价售出8,627盎司。
• 管理层维持2026年归属产量指引在40,000–45,000盎司不变，目前预计产量将略高于41,000盎司。第3和第4采季预计将各生产约12,000盎司。
• 上半年现金成本为每盎司2,665美元，总维持成本为每盎司2,830美元。随着高品位南矿坑矿石取代低品位北矿坑矿石，管理层继续保持全年现金成本约为每盎司1,900–2,000美元的目标。
• 对冲头寸已于7月完全平仓。管理层表示，第三季度将是公司历史上首个所有黄金均按现货价格销售的季度，而3,100美元的看跌期权则提供了下行保护。
• 截至6月30日，现金总额为8,900万美元。如果金价维持在每盎司4,400美元，管理层预计2026年来自Manh Choh合资企业的现金分红将超过6,000万美元。
• 公司正同步推进Lucky Shot、Kitsault Valley和Johnson Tract三个项目，其中Lucky Shot的可行性研究工作定于2027年进行，Kitsault Valley已有5台钻机在运行。

关键财务数据

业务与运营业绩

Manh Choh

上半年的产量反映了北矿坑品位较低的矿石，包括回填前在资源量模型之外回收的黄金。合资企业已于下半年转入南矿坑采掘，管理层预计该矿坑开采量更高且品位大幅提升。

南矿坑的前期剥离工作在年前六个月已基本完成。管理层预计，这种时间节点效应再加上处理量和品位的提高，将推动下半年的单位成本大幅下降。

按4,400美元的金价和约2,000美元的现金成本计算，管理层展示的利润率约为每盎司2,400美元。由于Manh Choh留存了未来数月生产所需的资金，公司关注的重点是合资分红，而非简单的每盎司利润率。

Lucky Shot

Contango于7月1日完成了对Alaska Hardrock的交易，获得了专利矿权、地产及设备，同时买断了2%的净冶炼所得权益（NSR）。管理层表示，该交易使公司对该矿区实现了实质控制，也体现了对Lucky Shot矿山潜力的信心。

最后的井下化验结果包括一段品位达每吨972克且肉眼可见明金的截头。两台由直升机支持的地表钻机正在Coleman和Lucky Shot之间进行钻探，而井下钻探预计将于本月底重启。

该项目正在收集地质、岩土工程和化验数据，用于直运矿石（DSO）可行性研究。管理层的目标是获取40万–50万盎司、品位约为每吨10–14克的黄金资源量。钻探预计将持续至2027年3月左右，可行性研究计划于2027年进行。

公司还在评估矿石分选技术，以剔除贫矿花岗闪长岩、提高稀释后的开采品位并减少运输量。Fort Knox是潜在的选矿方案之一，不过管理层表示也在审视其他备选方案。

Kitsault Valley

截至6月底，计划40,000米的钻探项目中已完成超过35,000米。目前有5台钻机同时作业，近期每日钻探进尺约470–480米。

管理层预计，在现有预算内，钻探效率提高将增加约5,000–10,000米的进尺。首次化验结果预计将在电话会议后约一个月内公布，随后每两到三周公布一次结果。

管理层将Kitsault Valley定位为以银为主的矿区。白银占Torbrit、Wolf Vein、Dolly Varden和North Star价值的90%左右。公司的五年目标是生产20万盎司黄金和500万盎司白银，其中白银目标正是与该矿区直接挂钩。

Johnson Tract

Johnson Tract仍处于许可审批和基础设施建设阶段。管理层表示，FAST-41审批流程正在按计划推进，而道路和桥梁建设支出低于预算。许可审批工作将与工程建设同步推进。

管理层指引

• 2026年归属黄金产量： 40,000–45,000盎司，目前预计略高于41,000盎司。
• 第3和第4采季： 预计各产出约12,000盎司。
• 2026年现金成本： 约每盎司1,900–2,000美元。
• 下半年合资企业分红： 按公司3,700美元的金价预算假设计算，约为3,600万美元。
• 金价潜在提升收益： 若金价为4,400美元，管理层估计将增加约700万美元分红；如果该价格得以维持，全年分红将略高于6,000万美元。
• 年末现金： 预计约为4,500万美元，现金可能在2027年第一季度达到低谷，随后随着Manh Choh在2027年的提产而回升。
• Lucky Shot可行性研究： 预计于2027年出炉，未提供具体完成日期。

风险与关注事项

• 实现全年成本指引在很大程度上取决于南矿坑更高的品位、增加的处理量以及前期剥离工程的完成。
• 预计的分红提升基于金价维持在每盎司4,400美元附近的前提。公司的看跌期权设立了3,100美元的底部支撑，但管理层将其形容为一份保险策略。
• Manh Choh的分红可能无法直接反映营业利润率，因为合资企业会保留未来三到四个月生产所需的资金。
• 化验实验室的处理进度可能会推迟Kitsault Valley钻探结果的公布。
• 在Lucky Shot直运矿石模式中，运输是重要的成本组成部分，这使得矿石分选的表现成为可行性研究的重要考量因素。
• 随着公司为三个项目提供资金，预计现金将有所下降，并在2027年第一季度触底，随后管理层预计现金流将逐步回升。
• Johnson Tract在推进基础设施建设的同时，仍需继续办理相关许可。

分析师问答精选

在经历较弱的上半年后，为何2026年产量指引依然可以实现？
管理层预计，相比北矿坑，南矿坑将提供更高的采掘量和品位。最后两个采季预计各产出约12,000盎司，支撑总产量略高于41,000盎司。

预计现金成本下降的驱动因素是什么？
上半年吸收了南矿坑的前期剥离成本，且处理的矿石品位较低。目前剥离成本已基本告一段落，预计下半年品位和处理量都将提升。

取消对冲后，现金产生能力有何变化？
从第三季度开始，每一盎司黄金都将按现货价格销售。如果金价维持在每盎司4,400美元，管理层估计全年合资分红将略高于6,000万美元。

当前Lucky Shot钻探的战略目的是什么？
该项工作的目的是缩小钻孔间距、更新资源量模型，并为2027年的直运矿石可行性研究提供地质和岩土工程数据。

Contango是否有能力同时为所有三个开发项目提供资金？
管理层表示，8,900万美元的现金余额以及预计的Manh Choh分红提供了充足的资本，可以在现有预算下推进Lucky Shot、Kitsault Valley和Johnson Tract项目。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Bianca Pisciola

All right. Good morning, good afternoon or good evening, depending on where in the world you're login from today. I lucky enough to have with me today Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, CEO of Contango Silver & Gold; and Mike Clark, the company's CFO, to discuss their recently released Q2 financials. Gentlemen, how are you doing today?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Good morning, Bianca. Good to see you again.

J. Clark

Good morning.

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

And you, too, Mike.

Bianca Pisciola

Always good to see you both. For folks in the room, this is an interactive event. So you can use the chat button at the bottom at any point of today's event to get -- to submit your questions. We will try to get to your questions, but note that this is only a half an hour event today. So if, for whatever reason, we don't get to your questions, someone from the Contango team will be able to help you very shortly. You can also request a meeting with the team at any point during today's event by clicking the request meeting button at the bottom of your screen.

All right. Let's get into it today.

Bianca Pisciola

Rick, this is the first full quarter reporting as Contango Silver & Gold at Kitsault Valley -- with Kitsault Valley in the portfolio and the hedge book fully behind you as of July. Before we get into the numbers, how would you like to frame where the company sits today compared to where it was at this point last year?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes. I mean, obviously, adding the Dolly Varden asset to Kitsault, I mean, it really is a world-class asset, and I think that's why we were eager to get the transaction completed. The teams are integrated. We'll talk more about the drilling later, but we've got 5 rigs turning at Kitsault, but there's a lot of other activity going on in the company at Lucky Shot and at Johnson Tract. But I think, frankly, the most exciting news for me is we're out from underneath the hedges. We've got a clear exposure for our shareholders to the upside in the gold price, which I think -- it shot up over $5,500, went back to $4,000, seemed to find a floor at $4,000. And that's when the team said, "Okay, now it's the time to take care of the hedges."

And I think that was the right call. So -- we've seen gold price continue to move up, and we're seeing now the -- we're getting the advantage of that. So I think from the macro side, which we can talk about later. But I think the company is in a great position. We're generating strong cash flows. We've got the better half of this year ahead of us with production from Manh Choh. We always guided that the first half was going to be lower and higher cost. And then, of course, we're set up well for 2027 when we'll have our -- probably the best year at Manh Choh with good grades and high grades, good grades and low cost. So -- yes, we're -- I think I'm really pleased with where we are as a company, and we still only have 33 million shares outstanding. So I think we're all, I think, pretty proud of that.

Bianca Pisciola

Very good. And Mike, let's get into the quarter. Your 30% share of Manh Choh came to about 8,900 ounces with 8,627 ounces sold at an average spot price of $4,328. The JV is still working through lower grade material from the North pit before higher grade South pit ore comes through. With that said, walk us through the production cadence for the back half of the year and why the 40,000 to 45,000 ounce guidance is still intact?

J. Clark

Yes. Thanks, Bianca. Yes. So Rick already kind of alluded to the grade being lower in the North pit, especially as we mined out kind of the outside of the resource model, there was some lower grade ounces that we did pick up before backfilling. So we didn't -- so this year, we're -- or the second half of the year, we're fully into the South pit, which has -- there's going to be more tonnes mined. There's going to be higher grade mined. And so we expect there to be about 12,000 ounces produced in both campaigns 3 and 4, which should get us to just slightly above 41,000 ounces of gold production for the year. So it's within our guidance, and that's what we're currently estimating as of today.

Bianca Pisciola

Very good. And cash costs for the first half came in at $2,665 an ounce, with all-in sustaining costs at $2,830. And the full year guidance sits at around $1,900 to $2,000 on cash costs. That implies a meaningful improvement in the second half. Can you bridge that gap for investors so they understand how much of this grade timing -- is this grade timing versus anything structural?

J. Clark

Yes. It seems like a lot higher number than what we're projecting for the year, but we still maintain that guidance, and it's largely driven by the pre-stripping in the South pit. And so you spent the whole first 6 months of the year spending money on that while also mining lower grades. And so as we get into the second half of the year, the pre-stripping is behind us, you're going to have higher tonnes mined and processed as well as the grade going up significantly. So all those things together, we still expect to come close to our guidance.

Bianca Pisciola

Awesome. And Q3 will be the first quarter in the company's history where every single ounce sells at spot with gold sitting about $4,400 right now. With the puts at $3,100 providing the floor, what does the margin picture actually look like on each ounce delivered from here? And how does that change the cash flow story for the rest of 2026?

J. Clark

Yes. I think of the puts more as just an insurance policy, and I don't really focus on those. We're always expecting gold to be above $4,000, and we budget everything at $3,700. But if you just look at it simply, you'd say $4,400 minus your $2,000 cash cost, you'd expect about a $2,400 margin. But because we're a 30% JV, I kind of more focus on what the cash distributions will be from the JV for the year because they always do hold some funds back to pay for the next 3 or 4 months of production. So I expect we should receive [ 18 ] -- about $36 million in the back half of this year from distributions. And if you apply -- using that $3,700 -- excuse me, $3,700-odd gold. So if you apply your $4,400 gold price, you'd expect to receive about another $7 million. So that should get our total cash distributions this year to slightly above $60 million if $4,400 gold holds.

Bianca Pisciola

Very good. And Rick, on July 1, you closed the purchase from Alaska Hardrock, which brings in the mineral claims around Lucky Shot along with the 2% net smelter royalty plus property and equipment. You now control that project outright with significantly reduced royalties. Why was that important to get that done now ahead of the feasibility study?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes. I think it was sort of opportunistic. We've known the underlying landowner for a number of years. And he said, "When you're ready to talk, we'd love to own the asset and buy the royalty." And I think he thought about it for a while. And obviously, when we started this whole -- when we acquired Lucky Shot, the gold price was $2,000-ish. And so as that gold price ran up to $5,500, I think he thought well, better get something done.

So -- yes, it was 100% opportunistic. There are sort of no real magic there. We think it's a good deal for him. He did a great job in consolidating that district and putting all the different patented claims together, and he's held on it for a long time. So we're grateful to him for doing that because that's a work of -- you have to work hard to put all these different patents together. So it worked out well for us.

We own the underlying patented mining claims now. Obviously, the state mining claims all around it. We control the district effectively. And -- yes, we obviously bought the royalty out as well. So we're pleased with the overall transaction. Obviously, it's a -- we obviously wouldn't have done it if we didn't think we're finding good things at Lucky Shot. So I mean that sort of underscores our belief that we've got a real mine here.

Bianca Pisciola

Well, speaking of Lucky Shot, the final assays from the underground program included an intercept grading 972 grams per tonne with visible gold in the core. GMS is back underground advancing development, and you've got 2 helicopter-supported rigs turning on the surface program between Coleman and Lucky Shot. What are these programs designed to prove ahead of the feasibility study and the 2027 production decision?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes. So basically, we're gathering all the geologic data, the geotechnical data, the assays, obviously, to do a DSO, direct shipping ore based feasibility study. And first step is to get the geologic model put together, the resource model update that, obviously, we're targeting 400,000 to 500,000 ounces of gold grading in the, I'll say, 10 to 15, 10- to 14-gram range.

Obviously, it's an underground mine. It was historically an underground mine, produced 0.25 million ounces at very high grades. We are going to look at -- they use hand-sorting back in the day. We will take a look at ore sorting and probably, obviously, more of a modern version of it with these ore sorters that work at incredibly high speeds, and they can sort on a lot of different variables. So that is something we'll take a look at because, obviously, transportation is a significant amount of the costs in a DSO model.

So if you can simply put the geology here is a quartz vein in a granodiorite, and the granodiorite is rock that doesn't have any gold in it. If you can mine something that's 2, 3 meters wide and a meter of that is granodiorite, you can get rid of it or get rid of 50% of it with the ore sorters, you're -- that much -- you've upgraded your average grade, your diluted mine grade and you're not transporting that material.

So yes, we've got a lot of work to do, but the first step is gathering all the -- getting the drill spacing down. We're drilling on about 25-meter centers. And then we do fan shots. So between the -- each time we're hitting the quartz vein, we're probably in the neighborhood of 10 to 15 meters apart. So this is a -- this will be measured indicated resource, and we'll be able to develop a mine plan around that. And as I said, the other metallurgy here is like super simple.

It's quartz and gold, a very small amount of sulfide. We've talked about the possibility of taking it to the Fort Knox mill. That's an obvious choice. I think it's fair to say that Fort Knox is interested. They still have a mill that has plenty of capacity in it. But there are other options that we are evaluating as well. So -- that's kind of where we're at.

Give us -- I think the drilling will take place between now, I mean we've been drilling, obviously, the surface drilling 2 rigs. The underground rig will start back up at the end of the month. And let's see what else. We'll be drilling until about March of next year. And obviously, working on all the engineering and what have you work between now and then. And don't have a date on when we'll have a feasibility study done, but it will be in 2027.

Bianca Pisciola

Awesome. And over at Kitsault Valley, you had more than 35,000 meters of the 40,000 meter program done by the end of June and a new resource estimate coming together this quarter. This is the first update since the merger closed. What should investors be watching for in that number? And how has the integration of the Dolly Varden team gone on the ground?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes, great integration. I mean it's a really good group of people, and they're -- I have to say they're like really kicking butt on getting the drilling done. We've got 5 rigs turning. They're averaging beginning of the season when they're drilling the shallower holes, they're over 500 meters a day, 100 meters a rig, which is really good. They're a little under that now, but the high-470, 480 sort of level. So they're cranking out a lot of core, and they're doing it very efficiently from a timing perspective, but also from a cost perspective, which obviously makes me smile and makes Mike smile. But we're smiling because we're going to do more drilling.

We're going to get more drilling, wring more drilling out of the budget. And this was flow-through finance. So we're probably going to get another, I'd say, 5,000 to 10,000 meters drilled with the same budget. So we're excited about that. Obviously, we'll have drill results out, I'm going to guess within a month. That's up to the laboratory gods, which never seem to favor anyone. When I go to conferences, that's probably the #1 complaint of exploration geologists is how long it takes to get assays. So -- but yes, I think we're tracking them, and I think we'll have results out within a month. So hopefully, sometime in later in August at the earliest, but probably more likely early first half of September.

And then once we put results out, you're going to have results every 2, 3 weeks after that. So...

Bianca Pisciola

Brilliant. Silver is trading around $65 an ounce, up roughly 70% from a year ago, and it's been leading gold for stretches of this rally. When you renamed the company, Contango Silver & Gold in March, some people saw that as a bet on exactly this kind of market. How does the silver exposure at Kitsault change the way investors should think about the story?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

I think I used the term world-class, and I don't use that lightly. There are very few silver-only -- silver deposits. Most silver producers are -- it's a bit of smoke and mirrors, frankly, because it's -- they produce more gold value-wise than they do silver. Kitsault is a silver centric silver deposit. It makes up 90% of the value for the Torbrit and the Wolf Vein and Dolly Varden and North Star. Those are all -- you're 90% of the value in silver. You've got some base metals, lead zinc. You don't have a lot of gold. There is gold at Homestake, which is sort of a separate center. It's part of the same overall geologic system, but it's 5 kilometers away, and it's gold-rich.

Interestingly enough, between the two, you do have a gold and silver deposit, which we -- which is right adjacent and named Homestake Silver, but it has good silver and good gold. So nothing wrong with that. But the lion's share of the ounces are silver ounces. And -- so that's going to make for a very interesting story. That's why we kind of -- we talk about our objective in 5 years is to produce 200,000 ounces of gold and 5 million ounces of silver. That -- and 5 million ounces of silver is coming from that silver-centric part of the district.

Torbrit, Dolly Varden and New Wolf discovery. Now we're drilling in some really exciting stuff right now, and I'll -- I can't say much more, but you'll wait for the assays, and they'll be out within a month here.

Bianca Pisciola

Excellent. And Johnson Tract is getting a bit less airtime than the other assets right now, but there's real work happening this summer with bids in for road construction and helicopter support to connect the camp to the proposed portal site. What does the 2026 field season look like there? And where does Johnson Tract fit in the queue behind Lucky Shot and Kitsault?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes. So yes, when you're permitting, that's always kind of the -- I call it the boring part of the Lassonde Curve. But -- so we're permitting, and that's moving part of FAST-41, and that's all moving along according to the schedule. And people can -- what I love about FAST-41 is it's transparent and the schedules on the Internet. So everybody can go and see. We have these reports due and we get those reports due and they have -- the agencies have so many days to review, and that's all happening according to schedule. So that's great.

But while they're doing that, we've been building roads and bridges. And -- so I'm actually heading out there next week, and we'll take some photos and some video, and we'll get that up on the Internet. And I'm really excited to walk across the Johnson River on the bridge. And I'll send you some photos.

Bianca Pisciola

Please.

J. Clark

And it's under budget, too, Rick.

Bianca Pisciola

Love that. That's great. I can't wait to see.

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

The important point to me is because that's -- whenever -- if you look at construction projects, they have a habit of going over budget and taking longer than you plan. And I think the guys again, have just done a great job. The team out there has done a great job of getting it done. And Alegre and her environmental team have done a great job just working with agencies, keeping everything permitted. And there's still a lot of permitting to do while you're doing all this construction work, right? It's permitting -- you're never done permitting.

Bianca Pisciola

Absolutely. Mike, back over to you. Let's talk about the balance sheet. You ended the quarter with $89 million in cash. Repayments on the facility are just $2 million for the rest of this year and distributions from the JV should build as the South pit grades come through. You're funding three projects at once. How do you prioritize where the dollars go over the next 12 months?

J. Clark

Yes. Well, we forecast out the next kind of 3 to 4 years. But if you kind of just isolate over the next 12 months. We have $89 million in the bank as of June 30. We do have distributions coming from Manh Choh. And so with those, we have sufficient capital to advance all these three projects as planned. So it's just making sure that those -- each of those individual budgets stay within where we're currently sitting, then there's plenty of cash to fund those. You'll see the cash probably end the year around $45 million. But what you're -- and you'll probably see it dip to its lowest amount in kind of Q1 of next year. But then as we ramp up into '27 with Manh Choh, you're going to see the cash steadily increase while continuing to advance all those projects.

Bianca Pisciola

Very good. And Rick, let's close off today by asking a macro question. Gold appears to be making a come back yet again despite the feeble warnings of gold bears. What do you think about the macro setup for this year, up 10% in a month is no slouch?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes. I mean, look, we talked about it earlier that we saw gold retrace down to the $4,000 level. It didn't seem to want to go down below $4,000 for any significant period of time. There was always a buyer. And then -- it turns out that those central -- same central banks that have been buying were buying again. And of course, led by China, but other banks as well.

So I think it's kind of the song remains the same sort of a scenario here. We keep printing money. The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard spot. We're still what, close to $40 trillion in debt, the U.S. and it's not just the U.S., all the other currency, all the other governments are in debt, too. And there's only -- gold is the commodity that -- or I should say, the currency that is no one's liability. So whereas when you keep printing money, at some point, somebody says, what are we doing here? So -- yes, gold is king, and we're unhedged. So we're going to see that upside delivered to our shareholders, which I think is the most important thing we've done this year.

Bianca Pisciola

Absolutely. Speaking of -- thank you, everyone, who joined today. If you have a question for the Contango team, and it's just occurring to you just now, please feel free to send them in. We will make sure that they get to the team. Big thank you to you, Rick and Mike for joining us today. Always a pleasure to have you on the platform and hear an update on the story.

But Rick, I'll pass it over to you for a final word.

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes, if there's no other questions from audience. Look, I mean, we're pleased with where the company sits today, unhedged, 33 million shares outstanding, NYSE and Toronto listing. So good liquidity. I think if you're looking for exposure to the gold business, I encourage -- I've always encouraged people to look at it on a per share basis because as a shareholder, you own a part of the company and that leverage is what you want when you are making an investment in the gold space.

So -- yes, we're in a great spot. We're going to have a lot of news flow, a lot of catalysts coming our way in the next few weeks with Lucky Shot drill results, Kitsault drill results, some great photos of roads and bridges at Johnson Tract. And we're on the move. We're going to keep moving. So keep adding value for shareholders. That's our job, and that's our mission.

Bianca Pisciola

Fantastic. Thank you, guys, again. Have a lovely rest of your day.

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Thank you very much.

Bianca Pisciola

Thanks.