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勃肯 (BIRK) 2026财年第三季度业绩电话会:上调营收指引

TradingKey2026年8月14日 08:08
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勃肯发布2026财年第三季度财报,营收达7.2亿欧元,按固定汇率计算同比增长15%,调整后EBITDA增长11%至2.42亿欧元。得益于DTC业务加速及亚太、美洲和EMEA等全区域的双位数增长,公司上调全年固定汇率营收增速预期至15%,并预计调整后EBITDA至少达7.1亿欧元。尽管面临汇率波动、美国关税及中东冲突带来的物流成本上升等压力,公司核心产品与包头鞋类的强劲需求仍推动了毛利与平均售价的提升。此外,公司已完成2.3亿欧元股票回购,并具备进一步资本操作的灵活性。

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核心要点

  • 2026财年第三季度营收达到7.2亿欧元,按报告财务数据计算同比增长13%,按固定汇率计算同比增长15%。汇率波动使营收增速降低了180个基点。
  • 调整后EBITDA同比增长11%至2.42亿欧元。调整后EBITDA利润率为33.7%,同比下降70个基点,但扣除汇率和美国关税影响后增加了60个基点。
  • 按固定汇率计算,直接面向消费者(DTC)业务增速加速至16%。在13家新门店以及高单位数同店销售增长的支撑下,自营零售营收增长了50%。
  • 所有区域均实现两位数的固定汇率增长:美洲增长14%,欧洲、中东和非洲(EMEA)增长15%,亚太地区(APAC)增长23%。中国市场增长超过50%,而扣除澳大利亚后的亚太地区增长接近30%。
  • 勃肯(Birkenstock)将其2026财年按固定汇率计算的营收增长预期上调至15%,目前预计调整后EBITDA至少为7.1亿欧元。
  • 公司回购了2.3亿欧元的股票,并表示根据市场情况,具有额外进行5亿欧元股票回购或进一步债务再融资的灵活性。

关键财务数据

指标2026财年第三季度同比变动 / 补充背景
营收7.2亿欧元报告增幅+13%;按固定汇率计算+15%
调整后毛利率59.2%下降130个基点;汇率和关税分别带来60个基点和70个基点的下行压力
调整后EBITDA2.42亿欧元+11%;扣除800万欧元的汇率影响后为+15%
调整后EBITDA利润率33.7%下降70个基点;扣除汇率和关税影响后上升60个基点
调整后净利润1.34亿欧元+15%
调整后每股收益0.74欧元+19%(相比于0.62欧元)
经营性现金流2.47亿欧元对比此前为2.61亿欧元,反映出所得税支付额有所增加
现金及现金等价物6.94亿欧元扣除2.3亿欧元的股票回购和债务再融资后
资本支出2600万欧元用于生产、零售和IT领域的投资
净杠杆率1.8倍扣除加速股票回购后约为1.4倍
存货销售比37%高于上一季度的33%,主要受关税、汇率以及澳大利亚并表效应的影响

业务与运营表现

区域增长继续保持广泛态势

美洲地区按固定汇率计算增长14%。青少年零售商和体育用品商店领跑B2B表现,关键合作伙伴的售罄率增长超过20%。勃肯还在美国新开4家门店,使其在美国的门店总数达到21家。

欧洲、中东和非洲(EMEA)地区营收增长15%,强劲的线上和门店需求推动其增速较第二财季进一步加快。该地区的正价销售率为93%。公司在EMEA新开4家门店,使该区域门店总数达到50家。

亚太地区(APAC)按固定汇率计算增长23%,扣除澳大利亚的时间节点影响后增长接近30%。中国市场增长超过50%,且拥有公司最高的平均售价(ASP)。勃肯在亚太地区新开5家门店,使该区域门店总数达到53家。

DTC与零售业务提速

按固定汇率计算,DTC营收增长16%,较第二财季12%的增速有所加快,且跑赢了B2B业务。管理层将数字业务的提升归因于更优质的内容、更高程度的个性化、简化的结账流程以及扩展的会员忠诚度权益。

按固定汇率计算,自营零售营收增长50%。勃肯在本季度新增13家门店,使其全球自营门店总数达到124家。公司仍按计划推进,预计到2026财年底门店总数将达到约140家。

包头鞋类产品拓展了穿着场景

包头鞋类产品的渗透率提高了500多个基点。除Boston款式外的包头鞋类产品销量增长超过50%,其中Naples销量增长超过四倍,Utti销量翻了一番以上。

由于包头鞋类产品需要更多的劳动力和生产时间,产品组合的转变使调整后毛利率降低了约40个基点。然而管理层表示,这些产品能带来更高的平均售价和更高的单双毛利润。

按固定汇率计算,凉鞋业务保持中高单位数增长,主要由新版的Mayari、Madrid和Siena款式引领。产品组合贡献了平均售价增长的一半以上,而整体增长仍符合公司由ASP贡献约三分之一、销量贡献约三分之二的目标构成。

管理层业绩指引

2026财年展望管理层指引
营收增长按固定汇率计算增长15%
预计汇率对营收增长的拖累350个基点
调整后毛利率57.0%–57.5%
调整后EBITDA利润率30.2%–30.5%
调整后EBITDA至少7.1亿欧元
调整后每股收益1.90欧元–2.05欧元
预计有效税率30%–31%
资本支出1.1亿欧元–1.3亿欧元
财年底净杠杆率约为1.6倍–1.7倍(不含额外回购)

利润率展望包含了汇率和美国关税带来的合计约200个基点的下行压力。调整后每股收益指引已包含估计为0.15欧元–0.20欧元的汇率不利影响,且未包含6月完成的加速回购之外的任何额外股票回购。

对于第四财季,管理层预计按固定汇率计算的营收增速将在13%–15%的全年指引范围内。该季度汇率和关税同比预计保持相对中性。预计第四财季的综合关税率略高于15%。

风险与关注事项

  • 汇率波动使第三财季营收增速降低了180个基点,调整后EBITDA减少了800万欧元。管理层预计全年营收增长将面临350个基点的阻力。
  • 美国关税使第三财季调整后毛利率降低了70个基点。全年利润率展望已纳入汇率与关税合计约200个基点的压力。
  • 中东冲突推高了货运和物流成本,并影响了阿联酋等依赖旅游业的市场的需求。管理层目前预计下半财年对营收的影响总计达到高单位数百万欧元。
  • 包头鞋类产品的增长有助于提高平均售价和单双毛利,但由于制造复杂性,其毛利率百分比略低。
  • 与加速股票回购和债务再融资相关的不可扣除、非经常性财务费用,使有效税率暂时偏高。
  • 澳大利亚从经销商销售向本土化运营模式转型,将营收季节性推向第一和第四财季,影响了亚太地区的季度对比。

分析师问答亮点

管理层表示,DTC业务的加速既反映了门店扩张,也反映了更强劲的数字渠道转化率,而有纪律的B2B分销对于触达年轻消费者依然十分重要。在欧洲,尽管大盘市场的促销活动增加,但数字业务表现依然有所改善,且勃肯保持了93%的正价销售率。

在定价方面,管理层表示今年以来的定价增幅跑赢通胀30个基点。公司继续主要针对过季商品、季节性配色和断码商品实行选择性降价。核心与常青产品占业务总量的75%–80%。

管理层表示,超过70%的成品库存已签订合同,且主要由常青产品组成。存货销售比上升的增量中有过半来自汇率和资本化关税,其余大部分与澳大利亚并表及销售节奏改变有关。

在债务再融资之后,经常性财务成本预计将归一化为每季度约2500万欧元。2033年到期的9亿欧元新高级票据利率为4.5%,而已偿还的2029年到期票据利率为5.25%,尽管本金规模更大预计会使每季度的利息支出增加约450万欧元。

在资本配置方面,管理层表示,在考虑额外回购时,打算根据市场条件保持灵活应对。公司更倾向于将回购股票作为更大规模交易的一部分,以避免进一步减少其本已有限的公众流通盘,但如果董事会认定这样做符合股东利益,也可能会从公众流通盘中回购股票。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录


完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Birkenstock's Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Megan Kulick, Director of Investor Relations.

Megan Kulick

Hello, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. On the call are Oliver Reichert, Director of Birkenstock Holding plc and Chief Executive Officer of the Birkenstock Group; and Ivica Krolo, Chief Financial Officer of the Birkenstock Group.

Today, we are reporting the financial results for our fiscal third quarter ended June 30, 2026. You may find the press release and a supplemental presentation connected to today's discussion on our Investor Relations website at birkenstock-holding.com. Results have also been filed on Form 6-K with the SEC. We would like to remind you that some of the information provided during this call is forward-looking and accordingly is subject to the safe harbor provisions of federal security laws. These statements are subject to various risks, uncertainties and assumptions, which could cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements. These risks, uncertainties and assumptions are detailed in this morning's press release as well as in our filings with the SEC, which can be found on our website at birkenstock-holding.com.

We undertake no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements or information, except for as required by law. We will reference certain non-IFRS financial information. We use non-IFRS measures as we believe they represent the operational performance and underlying results of our business more accurately. The presentation of this non-IFRS information is not intended to be considered by itself or as a substitute for the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with IFRS. Reconciliations of non-IFRS measures to IFRS measures can be found in this morning's press release and in our SEC filings.

Now I'll turn the call over to Oliver.

Oliver Reichert

Good morning, everybody. We performed exceptionally well in Q3 and once again demonstrated the strength of our brands. Given this continued momentum for fiscal 2026, we raised our guidance for revenue growth to 15% in constant currency and adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR 710 million. We delivered another strong quarter. Our revenue grew 15% in constant currency at the high end of our annual target of 13% to 15%. EMEA growth accelerated to 15%. DTC growth accelerated to 16% in constant currency. Adjusted EBITDA margin on a like-for-like basis improved 60 basis points year-over-year. We achieved this despite an increase in costs, especially freight rates due to the conflicts in the Middle East.

We returned capital to shareholders by repurchasing EUR 230 million in shares. We also refinanced and upsized our senior notes at a 75 basis points lower rate. We continue to grow in our white spaces. APAC continued its high-quality and DTC-led growth, especially in China. We accelerated the pace of retail expansion. We are on track to meet our target of approximately 140 doors by the end of fiscal '26. Importantly, own retail revenue grew 50% in constant currency. Same-store sales were up high single digits.

We saw a strong acceleration in EMEA digital growth, capturing more demand in our own e-com channel. Closed-toe penetration was up 500 basis points, consistent with recent trends and in line with our goal to expand usage occasions for our footbed. Product mix contributed over half of the growth in ASP. We saw double-digit growth across all of our regions. Our Americas business was up 14% in constant currency. Youth retailers and sporting goods stores continue to lead B2B growth with sellout at key partners in these channels up above 20% year-over-year.

Within the Americas DTC business, we saw very strong retail growth as we continue to open new stores to capture more in-person shopping demand in our own doors. We opened 4 new stores in the U.S., bringing the total to 21. Growth in EMEA was 15%. In the largest, most important quarter for EMEA, we saw accelerating consumer demand, especially in our DTC business, both online and in-store with strong full price realization of 93%. We opened 4 stores during the quarter, bringing the total in EMEA to 50.

APAC grew 23% in constant currency. Excluding Australia, APAC growth was close to 30%. Australia's growth in the quarter was impacted by a shift in quarterly cadence as a result of the distributor acquisition. We are very confident in our APAC target for the full year. Importantly, we had over 50% growth in China, the country with the highest ASP, a testament to our high-quality premium brand positioning in the region. Within the APAC segment, we opened 5 new owned stores, bringing the total to 53.

On the product side, we continue to innovate and drive newness in both closed-toe and sandals. This innovation is most visible with our premium 1774 collection. We introduced new Raffia, Canvas and premium leather executions in Naples, Boston, Arizona and Gizeh. We also collaborated most recently with Song for the Mute, Ader Error and Repetto, a very successful launch targeting the female-led and growing popularity of ballet flats. This global movement also resulted in a very strong demand for the Mary Jane style, Santa Clarita, one of the newest mainline silhouette launches. This once again demonstrates our ability to create a trend within our brand.

While demand for the Boston remains very strong, other clog executions also performed exceptionally well. For example, the Naples grew by more than 4x the units sold year-over-year. We also saw very strong growth in shoes, led by Utti, a lace-up moc-toe, which more than doubled in units sold year-over-year. Overall, non-Boston closed-toe executions were up more than 50%. About half of our top 20 silhouettes are closed-toe, including 3 that were introduced within the past 3 years.

In our sandal business, we saw the strongest growth from our newest seasonal execution such as flowers, rivets, buckles, prints and textiles. Growth was especially strong in our Mayari, Madrid and Siena silhouettes. We highlight this newness most prominently within our DTC business, driving growth in our own channels. We remain super confident in the strength of our brand. We are purpose-driven and see strong global demand for the footbed. We target a diverse range of consumers across geography, gender, age and income.

Our total addressable market is only limited by the global population. This gives us flexibility to drive growth regardless of global or regional macro conditions. We manage our distribution with discipline to maintain scarcity, properly segment the market, manage channel growth and protect full price realization.

Now I will pass the call over to Ivica to go through the quarterly results in more detail.

Ivica Krolo

Thanks, Oliver. I'm happy to share with you details of Birkenstock's performance for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, which exceeded our expectations. We generated third quarter revenues of EUR 720 million, growth of 13% on a reported basis. Growth in constant currency was 15% at the high end of our 13% to 15% expectation.

The depreciation in the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar and Asian currencies like the Indian rupee and the Japanese yen compared to the third quarter of 2025 caused a 180 basis points headwind to revenue growth in the quarter. For reference, in the third quarter of 2026, the average euro to U.S. dollar rate was $1.16, up from $1.13 in Q3 of fiscal 2025.

We saw strong growth across all segments in the quarter. The Americas segment was up 14% in constant currency, continuing the trend we saw in the first half of the year and reflecting the consistent strength in our most developed markets. EMEA was up 15% in both reported and constant currency, a strong acceleration from Q2, driven by particularly strong D2C in Europe in both online and retail.

We continue to see some localized impact in the Middle East related to the conflicts in the Gulf region, particularly in the UAE, which is highly dependent on tourism and export demand. This has been offset by strong domestic demand in markets such as Saudi Arabia. Overall, the Q3 performance was better than anticipated.

APAC was up 23% in constant currency. APAC quarterly growth rates are skewed due to the changed revenue pattern from the Australia business. Prior to the acquisition, revenues were recognized when we delivered to the distributor before the peak season. We are now realizing revenues in line with the local market dynamics and seasonality.

The Australian spring/summer months are September to February and D2C and B2B sellout peaks in these months, which aligns with our Q1 and Q4, which differs from the revenue realization pattern pre-transaction. Therefore, Q3 Australia growth was lower versus last year, which, as one of our top markets in the region had an impact on the APAC growth rate. Excluding the impact from Australia timing shifts, our APAC growth was close to 30%. We continue to expect APAC to grow at twice the pace of the other segments for the full year.

By channel for the year, B2B was up 15% in constant currency, consistent with the trends of the last few quarters on the back of continued strong demand at our key partners. D2C accelerated strongly to 16% in constant currency, up 400 basis points from 12% growth in Q2 and outpaced B2B in the quarter. Our digital growth accelerated very nicely compared to the first half of the year. Many of the actions we are taking to drive improved conversion are beginning to show results. This includes improved content, enhanced user experience, including simplified checkout options and expanded loyalty and member benefits.

Retail was up 50% as we continue to see very strong performance from our new and existing doors. We added 13 new owned stores, bringing our total to 124. Same-store sales growth was up high single digits. Adjusted gross profit margin for the third quarter was 59.2%, down 130 basis points year-over-year, mainly driven by 60 basis points of pressure from FX and 70 basis points of pressure from incremental U.S. tariffs. Adjusted gross profit margin, excluding these effects, was up 10 basis points year-over-year. While we continue to benefit from better capacity absorption, which contributed 50 basis points to adjusted gross profit margin, product mix caused a 40 basis points drag on margin.

The ongoing shift to closed-toe silhouettes comes with a slight margin drag due to the manufacturing complexity and higher consumption of production minutes. However, the shift is very beneficial for us as it yields higher ASP and higher gross profit per pair despite the slightly lower-than-average gross margin percentage. Selling and distribution expenses were EUR 186 million in the third quarter, representing 25.9% of revenue. This was up 30 basis points from the prior year, primarily due to accelerated retail expansion and some higher logistics costs as a result of the conflicts in the Middle East.

General and administration expenses were EUR 33 million or 4.5% of revenue, down 40 basis points year-over-year due to lower IT expenses and fixed cost leverage. Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of EUR 242 million was up 11% year-over-year. The flow-through of FX effects reduced adjusted EBITDA by EUR 8 million. Excluding this FX impact, EBITDA was up 15%.

Adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.7% was down 70 basis points year-over-year due to 130 basis points of pressure from FX and tariffs. Excluding these impacts, adjusted EBITDA margin would have been up 60 basis points. This improvement is despite the increase in freight and logistics costs.

Adjusted net profit was EUR 134 million in the third quarter, up 15% year-over-year. Adjusted EPS for Q3 was EUR 0.74, up 19% from EUR 0.62 a year ago. The debt refinancing triggered a EUR 11.7 million expense from the accelerated amortization of the transaction cost and the derecognition of the embedded derivative of the original senior notes. The ASR triggered a EUR 10.6 million expense from fair value changes due to share price movements during the term of the ASR. These onetime noncash expenses were recognized in finance costs and were excluded from adjusted net profit.

We generated EUR 247 million in operating cash during the quarter compared to EUR 261 million in the prior year due to higher income tax payments totaling EUR 77 million. We ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of EUR 694 million after the share repurchase of EUR 230 million and the refinancing and upsizing of our long-term senior notes. As a reminder, in June, we repaid EUR 428.5 million of 5.25% senior notes due 2029 and issued EUR 900 million new senior notes due 2033 at 4.5%. The remaining excess cash added to the balance sheet gives us flexibility to further enhance shareholder value with an additional EUR 500 million share repurchase or the refinancing of other existing debt subject to market conditions.

Our inventory to sales ratio was 37% in the quarter, up from 33% a quarter ago. The increase from last year is largely driven by the increase in capitalized tariffs and FX effects. Our DSO for the quarter were healthy 45 days, up slightly from 43 a year ago. During the quarter, we spent EUR 26 million in CapEx, adding to our production capacity in Arouca, Gorlitz and Pasewalk, beginning the build-out of Wittichenau and continuing our investments in retail and IT. We also paid the second tranche of the purchase price for Birkenstock Australia of EUR 9 million. Our net leverage was 1.8x as of June 30, 2026, up from 1.5x at September 30, 2025, reflecting the cash outflows from the ASR. Excluding the ASR, net leverage would have been approximately 1.4x.

Turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2026. In the fourth quarter, we expect revenue growth in constant currency within our annual guidance range of 13% to 15%. We expect FX to be relatively neutral in Q4, resulting in similar growth rate on a reported and constant currency basis. On margins for Q4, we expect FX to be neutral. On tariffs, given the recently announced agreement with the European Union and the implementation of Section 301 tariffs, we now expect a blended tariff rate for Q4 of just over 15%, below what we have experienced under the Section 122 tariffs. As a result, tariffs should also be relatively neutral year-over-year in Q4.

For the full year, we now expect revenue growth of 15% at the high end of our guidance range of 13% to 15%. For the full year, the FX drag is expected to be 350 basis points. For the full year, we continue to expect adjusted gross margin of 57% to 57.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.2% to 30.5%, inclusive of approximately 200 basis points of pressure from FX and U.S. tariffs combined. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be at least EUR 710 million for the fiscal year. Our expected tax rate is 30% to 31%, up from our prior forecast of 26% to 28% due to the nontax deductible expenses largely associated with the ASR and debt issuance.

Including the tax impact of the accelerated share repurchase as well as the refinancing and upsizing of our senior notes, adjusted EPS is expected to be EUR 1.90 to EUR 2.05, in line with our prior forecast. This includes approximately EUR 0.15 to EUR 0.20 of pressure from FX. This does not include the impact of any additional share repurchase beyond the ASR completed end of June. CapEx should be in the range of EUR 110 million to EUR 130 million. We have a net leverage target for the end of fiscal 2026 of approximately 1.6 to 1.7x, up from our previous forecast of 1.3 to 1.4x after the impact of the ASR, but excluding any additional share repurchases.

With that, I'll turn it back to Oliver to close.

Oliver Reichert

Thanks, Ivica. We are super happy increasing our revenue growth target to 15% in constant currency and adjusted EBITDA to at least EUR 710 million. Our third quarter results once again prove that demand for our beloved brand remains strong. Even in times of inflationary pressure on consumer wallets, we remain an accessible and desired brand. We are excited about the opportunities in the fast-growing and underpenetrated APAC market in expanding our own retail fleet and in the newness and innovation within our brand.

As we look toward the final quarter of our fiscal 2026 and beyond, we plan to continue to grow our share and expand our following within our new younger target group, building lifetime connections with our consumers across regions and channels, drive innovation and create newness in both our closed-toe and in our sandal business, actively steer product between geographies and channels to optimize margins, maintain scarcity and protect brand equity, continue to use our strong balance sheet and capital allocation decision to drive shareholder returns. Our organic growth generates substantial cash flow. Over the past 2 years, our operating cash flow totaled EUR 774 million. Our first priority remains to invest in the business. Of this EUR 774 million, EUR 189 million was invested in CapEx. Given our currently undervalued shares, we will look for opportunities to continue our buybacks. We will now take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

分析师问答

Matthew Boss

Congrats on a nice quarter. So Oliver, nice recovery in direct-to-consumer growth this quarter, came in above B2B for the first time in 2 years. Can you speak to drivers of the improvement at direct-to-consumer and what you're seeing in B2B relative to D2C? And then relative to the raised top line guide for the year, could you talk to trends in the fourth quarter? And do you think there's potential upside to your 15% top line forecast for the year?

Oliver Reichert

Matt, thank you for your question. I'm -- maybe a bit hard to understand because I'm dialing in from [indiscernible]. I'm heavy selling shoes here, as you can imagine, it's quite hot. But hopefully, you can hear me loud and clear. So to come back to your question, we delivered strong growth across both channels, of course, D2C outpaced B2B supported by the investments we are making in both own retail and in our own digital business. Both channels are and will remain important drivers for our business.

The D2C performance was driven by own retail, where our expanded footprint and faster store opening pace delivered 50% growth. Same-store sales were also strong, up high single digits, which reflects the continued demand for our brand across our existing store fleet. We also saw accelerating online growth. Newness on the product side, greater personalization and stronger storytelling are making the digital experience more compelling and driving the conversion. This was most impactful in Europe, where we saw a clear step-up in online performance with 93% full price realization, even as the broader market became more promotional, as you know.

So we are focused on growing the business where we can and create the most value. That means continuing to invest in D2C while maintaining a strong disciplined B2B business. Our wholesale partners are an important part of our growth strategy. They give us efficient access to new customers, particularly younger consumers while helping us maintain high-quality distribution across our markets. Our 15% constant currency revenue growth guidance reflects the strength we are seeing today across channels and markets. And last part of your question, we feel very confident about the momentum in the business and our long-term revenue growth target is 13% to 15%.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Laurent Vasilescu from BNP Paribas.

Laurent Vasilescu

I wanted to ask about EMEA. EMEA growth accelerated nicely versus Q2. Did you see any impact from the conflict in the Middle East? Could you provide additional color on key drivers behind the acceleration in growth? And to what extent did favorable weather conditions contribute to the growth relative to the underlying trends in the business? And curious, are you seeing any continuation of these trends into 4Q within EMEA?

Ivica Krolo

Laurent, thank you for your question. It's Ivica. So indeed, we did continue to see an impact from the conflict in the Middle East, although certainly it was less pronounced than in Q2, basically at the onset of the conflicts back then. We were able to mitigate much of the pressure through adjustments in the delivery routes and strength in the other parts of the region. For instance, if you think of Saudi Arabia, a very resilient market and less dependent on tourism and expats.

So in general, Q4 is a larger quarter in the Middle East. So we expect slightly more of an impact also due to the resumption of hostilities in the region itself. That said, we expect the total second half impact to be below the EUR 10 million to EUR 12 million we originally estimated. We now see this totaling high single-digit millions. Overall, the growth acceleration was largely driven by D2C demand, as Oliver already mentioned. Demand proved very resilient across the region, and we saw nice growth in both retail and online.

We're also seeing the benefits of the investments and actions we've taken to drive traffic and improve conversion. This is also something we've spoke about in January at our Capital Markets Day, and this includes enhanced upper funnel online marketing, stronger content and optimization of the inside experience, and this is all contributing positively.

So on the weather, definitely, warmer temperatures are generally favorable to our business. However, we are already seeing improved trends ahead of that, and those trends have continued into the first weeks of our fiscal Q4. And finally, to note, there was bad weather in some of our other markets in Q3 as well.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America.

Lorraine Maikis

So pricing over inflation was not a contributor to gross margin this quarter as it has been for the past few. Were you more promotional? And how should we think about your ability to pass inflation through with pricing when customers are a little more price sensitive? Are you seeing any signs of consumer pushback on pricing, particularly in early back-to-school?

Ivica Krolo

Lorraine, it's Ivica. So our pricing decisions are made with the goal of passing through inflation and protecting gross margin, something that we do very consistently. There can be timing differences from when we take pricing and when the inflation works its way through the inventory and flows through the COGS. And please keep in mind year-to-date, the pricing over inflation benefit to gross margin is 30 basis points.

On promotion, at an overall industry level, we see indeed a higher markdown activity as retailers compete for a more constrained consumer wallet. In this context, we continue to deliver a superior full price realization and gross margin. This basically underlines the strength of our brand and our markdown discipline, which remains unchanged. We are and will selectively discount as we always have.

Any active markdown we do is to effectively manage our seasonal excess stock as our business continues to grow. So as you know, 75% to 80% of our business is core products and evergreen styles. Our markdown assortment is centered very much around prior season merchandise, seasonal colorways and broken size runs.

And the beauty of our brand is we serve a broad range of price points from $50 to $1,500 and remain accessible when consumers are tightening up their spending. For those consumers who are more price sensitive, we offer executions in Birko-Flor, EVA or textile, for example.

And importantly, any action we have taken are not negatively impacting our margin. As you can see from our results, gross margin was even up 10 basis points on a like-for-like basis.

And finally, on back-to-school, we continue to be a must-have brand for the school year, and we continue to see a very strong youth-driven demand in the U.S.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Krisztina Katai, an equity research analyst.

Krisztina Katai

Congrats on a good quarter. You provided helpful color that the shift towards closed-toe silhouettes created, I think, a roughly 40 basis point pressure on gross margin. Can you help us quantify that further? What is the difference in gross margin between closed-toe and open toe? And then secondly, maybe if you could provide more color on the components of growth this quarter just across ASPs and volume.

Ivica Krolo

Krisztina, it's Ivica. Thank you for your question. And first, on the margin impact. So as you know, we don't disclose specific margin on a product level, but the complexity of higher ASP, non-Boston closed-toe shoes and boots executions require more labor input and consume more production minutes. So this quarter, we saw an over 500 basis points increase in our closed-toe share, and this is driven by over 50% growth in the non-Boston silhouettes with Naples units up more than 4x and Utti more than doubling year-over-year in Q3. That impacted the gross margin.

These are great, highly profitable products, which are helping us to attract new consumers and broaden the usage occasions for the footbed. And they generate a higher ASP and profit dollars per pair, although a slightly lower but still very strong margin. And we use contract manufacturers in Portugal for some of their production. So in-sourcing parts of this production now, the demand is scaling is a future margin opportunity for us definitely.

And then on your -- the second part of your question on ASP versus volume, it was very much in line with our 1/3, 2/3 target and reflects the continued build-out of our production capacity across the network, which is progressing according to plan.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Binetti with Evercore ISI.

Unknown Analyst

It's Carson on here for Michael. Sorry to get into the nitty-gritty of the model, but can you walk us through the tax rate? It's coming in above the original guidance of 27% to 28%. Is this 30% to 31% the new baseline for taxes? And then I would have expected more upside to EPS for the year given the strong EBITDA outlook and share repurchase. Why aren't we seeing the flow-through to EPS? And then related to that, what's the normalized finance cost on a quarterly basis with the new debt issued? And then should we expect to see less volatility in total finance costs going forward?

Ivica Krolo

Carson, thank you for your question. The first one on tax. No, we do not believe that 30% to 31% is the new baseline. Going forward, we expect a recurring tax rate in the high 20s. This year, it is elevated due to the nondeductible, nonrecurring, noncash finance expenses associated with the refinancing that we have completed over the course of Q3, the ASR and the mark-to-market valuations in the embedded derivative expenses.

On EPS, this year will be impacted by this higher effective tax rate with a normalized tax rate, adjusted EPS growth would have been 23% in the third quarter. For the full year, the impact is about EUR 0.08 per share. To your last part of your question on the finance cost. This quarter, finance costs were impacted by, again, one-time noncash expenses related to the refinancing of EUR 11.7 million and the ASR of EUR 10.6 million. So we do not expect to incur these expenses going forward.

What will result, however, in a recurring way and with a recurring change is the issuance of the new EUR 900 million senior notes and the repayment of the original close to EUR 430 million notes. This will increase interest expense within finance costs by approximately EUR 4.5 million per quarter and finance costs should normalize at around EUR 25 million per quarter. Overall, we expect volatility to decrease due to lower fluctuations in the embedded derivative resulting from the longer time to optional redemption of the new senior notes.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simeon Siegel with Guggenheim Securities.

Simeon Siegel

Ivica, can you just speak to the spread between inventory and sales? How are you thinking about the composition of your inventory now? Maybe how the change in units versus euros? And how are you thinking about the go-forward inventory levels? And then just to clarify on the Australia timing shift. Did sales shift earlier into 2Q or later into 4Q? And is that change now behind us? Just curious how to think about the underlying comment you made or the underlying trends comment you made and the go-forward expectations.

Ivica Krolo

Simeon, it's Ivica again. Thank you for your question. The first part on the inventory -- so as you are well aware, over 70% of our finished goods inventory is already contracted. Most of this inventory is core basically evergreen products, which don't go out of style and definitely allowing us for better preproduction and production balancing and definitely also helps our planning.

More than half of the increase in our stock-to-sales ratio is attributable to FX and capitalized tariffs, and this is something that we've spoken about already in our earnings call in Q2. The other half is largely attributable to the consolidation of the Australia business and the timing of revenue recognition and sell-through of the inventory there. We're now running an onshore business and are more bound to the cadence of selling in the region itself.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adrien Duverger with Goldman Sachs.

Adrien Duverger

Could you please comment a bit more on the performance in the U.S.? More specifically, how is the order book performing? Could you please comment maybe on the sell-in versus sell-out at your wholesale partners? I think you commented already that you have seen very good growth from these youth department stores and sporting goods.

And also, yes, I guess, following up on the prior question, are you confident that there is no buildup of inventory anywhere in the wholesale channel? And is there anything you're seeing in terms of wholesale appetite for your products, I guess, as well in terms of consumer feedback? That would be super helpful.

Ivica Krolo

Thank you very much, Adrien. It's Ivica again. So on your question with regards to U.S. B2B. And indeed, as Oliver said earlier in this call, we're continuing to see strong youth-led demand, and basically, this is the cohort that is highly growing and effectively being new to the brand. So this is what we call the footbed newbies. Sell-through across these channels in Q3 was up by 20% plus year-over-year. So continued strength we've observed for the last couple of quarters and very similar to what you have seen already before.

With regards to back-to-school, as mentioned, we are one of the must-have brand. We have -- are continuing to see this youth-driven growth. And with regards to coming back again to the markdown activity, there is no change to our approach. And if we would be marking down, you would immediately see it in our gross margin, but you don't see it. It's just the opposite. You see an increase on a like-for-like basis, and this is what we will continue to build on.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ed Aubin with Morgan Stanley.

Edouard Aubin

So just a question on China, actually. Obviously, your exposure to China is small. I think it was about 2% last year, but you mentioned on the call that you're growing about 50% year-over-year. Could you just update us on your plan to continue to grow in that market? And then just on production capacity because Oliver mentioned your sustained CapEx investment. I think on my estimates, you're going to be selling about 42 million pairs this year. When will you start to be thinking about building new factories or with the existing capacity, what could be the -- potentially the number of pairs you could be producing every year?

Ivica Krolo

Edouard, it's Ivica. So the first part of your question on China. So the business there was up 50% in the quarter and was our largest market in APAC in Q3. And it's very much a premium market for us. It's high-quality retail-led growth with the highest ASP globally. We'll continue to follow the road map we outlined for the market at our Capital Markets Day in January. So this is including raising brand awareness through new stores, both company-owned and partner doors, local activation, brand-building events. So events do play a key role in increasing the brand awareness through the region, and this will be built up further.

So the second part on your question, Edouard, with regards to build-out of capacity, especially with regards to production. So we are on track to deliver 10% unit growth, as we've said at our Capital Markets Day and the build-out of the entire manufacturing network, especially with regards to Wittichenau, but also Arouca in Portugal and Gorlitz is progressing according to plan, and we are well on track to deliver the target unit growth.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Altschwager with Baird.

Mark Altschwager

I wanted to hit on capital allocation. You have another, I believe, EUR 500 million of liquidity for buybacks. How do you anticipate executing the additional buyback program going forward? The last one was the ASR, obviously, how are you thinking about that versus a regular ongoing buyback program? And relatedly, net leverage 1.8x today, guiding to 1.6x, 1.7x by year-end. Do you have a target leverage ratio? Or what is the leverage level you're going to run in order to complete the buyback program?

Ivica Krolo

Mark, thank you for your question. It's Ivica again. And you are right, we have a significant cash balance from which we can execute additional buybacks, and we plan to do so. We will be responsive to capital market activity and make the decision how and when to utilize that cash based on a number of factors, including a potential liquidity events for our largest shareholder, the timing naturally of which we do not control.

Ideally, we would utilize the cash as we did the EUR 200 million last year and buy shares as part of a larger transaction. So we do not further reduce our public float, which is, as you know, already very low. That said, as we did this year with our most recent ASR, we don't have to wait for a bigger transaction and we'll buy back from the public float if our Board decides that it's in the best interest of our shareholders.

With regards to leverage, we do not have a specific leverage target set. We will keep our options open to allocate capital. However, it is in the best interest of our shareholders.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anna Andreeva with Piper Sandler.

For now, we will move on to Dana Telsey from Telsey Advisory Group.

Dana Telsey

Congratulations on the nice results. Oliver, as you think about the closed-toe penetration, which was up so nicely in the quarter, which typically is a summer quarter that's usually more sandals heavy. What was the growth in the sandals category? And the go forward, how do you think about product innovation and newness, whether in sandals or closed-toe and pricing?

Oliver Reichert

Dana, it's Oliver again. Thank you for your question. As you know, our sandal business remains very strong, up mid- high-single digits in constant currency year-over-year. So sandals were particularly strong in our own D2C channel, driven by newness. There's no one else with the footbed and its benefits. So this is a category we own. It's not just Arizona, which is still growing and benefiting from newness. The Mayari, the Madrid and the Siena silhouettes performed particularly well this summer.

The success of our closed-toe business, especially clogs has created true 4-season demand, reducing the seasonal dependence on sandals. This is not just the Boston, it includes the Naples, [indiscernible], Amsterdam and others, all of which are doing very well and building on our momentum in clogs.

We are constantly driving newness and innovation in both open toe and closed-toe, growing our global fan base. We create new trends from within our brands to build and expand our archive and extend usage occasions. I mentioned 2 good examples of this in my opening comments, like the Santa Clarita and the Repetto collaboration to capture the increasing global demand for ballerinas. This will be -- don't forget this, this will be the trend for the next 3, 5 years, the Ballerinas for ladies.

Operator

And with that, we have reached the end of the Q&A session. This concludes today's call. Thank you so much for attending. You may now disconnect.

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