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【投资观察】第4季港股领航:整装蓄力

香港智远权证网2025年10月13日 16:30
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来源:文汇报

建银国际证券策略团队

随着三季度恒指突破并站稳25,000点这一关键分水岭,港股一二级市场良性循环得到进一步强化,牛市格局已基本确立。港股投资逻辑由估值修复转向基于新质生产力和高质量发展的估值重估,这一转变逐步形成市场共识。

多重憧憬利好港股牛市

四季度将成为港股夯实新一轮牛市基础、打开上行空间的关键阶段。核心影响因素包括多重政策与事件窗口:中美谈判的进展及APEC峰会期间元首互动,可能对市场风险偏好产生影响;美联储后续降息的节奏及力度仍是流动性预期的重要变量;内地预料在第四季相继举行的重要会议将是重要的增量政策观察窗口;产业层面,随着「十五五」规划纲要相关文件的发布,将为行业和主题投资提供更为明确的指引;同时,关注DeepSeek R2或其它新版本潜在技术突破而对新质生产力主线将产生的催化效应。

流动性环境呈现复杂特征。尽管美联储重启降息已充分定价,但后续政策路径和空间,特别是2026年及以后的发展,仍存高度不确定性。美元走势或短期震荡,中期承压,长期走弱。

风险因素方面需保持警惕。贸易谈判的反覆可能扰动市场情绪;美联储降息节奏若不及预期,则有概率叠加美日财政及债务风险,令市场将面临调整;此外,美国经济滞胀风险、美股潜在波动及地缘政治的黑天鹅事件,依然构成潜在威胁。

综合研判,四季度港股或呈现先抑后扬的震荡格局。恒生指数波动区间预计在24,800点至27,800点之间。配置策略上,建议采取攻守平衡的哑铃型组合:底仓配置高股息品种以应对波动,同时逢低布局新质生产力与高质量发展主线,重点聚焦科技、高端制造、生物医药及内需复苏领域。

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