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国元国际:重庆机电(2722.HK)主业盈利能力稳健提升,大马力发动机持续高景气

香港智远权证网2025年9月2日 00:00
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国家政策支持西部先进制造业发展

重庆市打造“33618”现代制造业集群体系,将做大做强做优智能网联新能源汽车、新一代电子信息制造业、先进材料3大万亿级产业集群。叠加国家“一带一路”、“成渝地区双城经济圈”建设、西部陆海新通道建设以及西部大开发等优惠政策,相关区域企业将长期享有独特的产业政策优势及税收优势。

AIDC等新增需求带动大马力柴油发动机持续高景气,康明斯是龙头

IDC预测2025年中国智能算力规模将达到1,037.3EFLOPS,并在2028年达到2,781.9EFLOPS;2025年中国通用算力规模将达到85.8EFLOPS,预计到2028年将达到140.1EFLOPS。预测显示,2023-2028年期间,中国智能算力规模的五年年复合增长率预计达到46.2%,通用算力规模预计达到18.8%。柴油发电机组是数据中心可靠、高效、灵活的后备电源解决方案,在数据中心领域发挥不可替代的作用,未来需求有望保持高景气度。

从全球范围来看,柴油发动机的龙头企业仍以国际企业为主,包括康明斯、卡特和MTU等,拥有技术和品牌优势。近年来,中国厂家迅速崛起,包括潍柴、玉柴和科泰等,成为市场中一股越来越强大的新兴力量。

公司主业盈利能力稳健提升,投资收益有望持续增长

公司聚焦清洁能源装备、高端智能装备、工业服务三大板块。受益于技术研发、业务模式调整和自身管理提升,公司2025年上半年公司营业总额约人民币4,658.1百万元,增长约9.2%。公司毛利达约人民币799.8百万元,同比上升约10.4%。叠加重庆康明斯和日立能源在大马力发动机和特高压行业的经营红利,公司股东应占利润达人民币416.0百万元,同比上升约53.8%。

给予“买入”评级,目标价2.65港元/股

我们预测公司FY2025至FY2027实现收入9849.7、10830.3和11885.4百万元人民币,同比增长10.4%、10%和9.7%;归母净利润892(+106.8%)、991.5(+11.16%)和1133(+14.27%)百万元人民币。参考工业机械行业估值,认为公司合理估值应为2025年10倍PE,对应目标价为2.65港元/股,距现价有47%上涨空间,给予“买入”评级。

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