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东吴证券上调歌礼制药(1672.HK)目标价至29.26港元,海外临床进展顺利,远期管线成功概率提升

香港智远权证网2025年8月18日 00:00
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歌礼制药(1672.HK)于2025年8月15日发布2025年中期业绩公告,2025年上半年各项管线推进顺利,未来临床数据披露时间相对明确。东吴证券认为管线成功上市概率提升,据此上调目标价至29.26港元,维持“买入”评级。
核心经营数据表现亮眼
2025年上半年,歌礼制药营业收入108万元,主要来源于研发服务收入;研发费用1.46亿元,同比增长10.9%,通过管线调整与费用优化,在保障核心减重管线快速推进的同时,有效控制了研发费用增幅。截至2025年上半年末,该公司现金及现金等价物达15.8亿元,同比增长361.9%,主要因定期存款到期,充足的现金储备为后续管线研发提供了有力支撑。
核心管线进展与催化剂
作为歌礼制药核心小分子GLP-1管线,ASC30具备每日口服与每月注射双剂型优势。美国I期临床数据显示其4周减重率达6.5%,疗效显著优于礼来口服小分子GLP-1(Orforglipron)且安全性相当,展现出成为全球"同类最佳"的潜力。该管线正在美国推进IIa期13周临床研究,预计2025年第四季度揭晓顶线数据。东吴证券预计注射剂型数据读出略晚于口服剂型,随着临床数据披露,商务合作有望加速落地。
ASC47是歌礼制药开发的THR-β全新靶点减脂增肌管线,采用每月皮下注射给药方式。其独特靶点开创了靶向脂肪细胞的减脂新机制,与司美格鲁肽等GLP-1减肥药存在显著协同效应,联用可有效改善肌肉量下降问题并提升减重效果。该管线与司美格鲁肽联用的美国I期临床已于2025年7月完成所有受试者给药(试验周期29天),东吴证券预计2025年Q4公布顶线数据。
ASC50是少数进入临床阶段的口服小分子IL-17抑制剂,瞄准银屑病口服治疗空白市场(现有司库奇优单抗等药物均需注射)。其临床前数据已彰显疗效优势,极具竞争"同类最佳"潜力。该管线于2025年6月在美国启动I期临床,东吴证券预计2025年底揭晓顶线数据。目前全球仅3款银屑病IL-17小分子进入临床,赛道稀缺性突出。
东吴证券分析指出,地尼法司他作为首创新药(FIC)口服小分子FASN抑制剂,其III期临床数据表现优异,预计2026年在国内递交上市申请,未来有望成为公司重要的收入增长引擎。
盈利预测与估值
东吴证券上调歌礼制药2025-2027年营业收入预测至0.02/0.64/2.03亿元(前值为0/0.4/1亿元),预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为-4.18/-3.96/-3.58亿元,EPS(最新摊薄)分别为-0.43/-0.41/-0.37元。
风险方面,歌礼仍需面对新药研发及审批进展不及预期风险、药品销售不及预期风险、产品竞争格局加剧以及药品审批政策的不确定性的风险。
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