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国泰海通上调歌礼制药(1672.HK)目标价至27.91港元,管线竞争优势突出,看好临床与BD进展

香港智远权证网2025年8月18日 00:00
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国泰海通发布歌礼制药(1672.HK)研究报告指出,该公司核心管线具备全球竞争力与稀缺性。2025年内及2026年第一季度预计有关键临床数据读出,其海外授权合作的确定性。据此上调目标价至每股25.40元人民币(折合27.91港元),维持"增持"评级。

核心药物展现强大竞争力

歌礼制药旗下ASC30每日口服剂型已于2025年8月完成所有患者入组,预计2025年四季度获得顶线数据;美国Ib期研究显示,经4周治疗后,安慰剂校准后相对基线平均体重下降高达6.5%,总体耐受性良好,无呕吐发生,未出现严重不良事件,所有胃肠道相关不良事件均为轻度(1级)或中度(2级),对比礼来orforglipron(减重三期数据不达市场预期)展现强大竞争力。

ASC30每月注射剂型在超长效减肥药领域展现竞争优势,预计2025年完成治疗肥胖症的美国12周IIa期临床研究所有受试者入组,2026年Q1获得顶线数据;在评估的三种储库型制剂中,一种制剂支持超过每月一次的更低频率给药,相较周制剂药物及抗体多肽偶联月制剂候选药物,具有潜在注射频率更低或产品成本更低的优势。

ASC47作为脂肪靶向、超长效皮下注射的THRβ选择性小分子激动剂,支持每月一次至每两月一次给药。在澳大利亚Ib期研究取得积极顶线结果,经安慰剂校准后的平均减重为1.7%(第50天,峰值),具备减重不减肌的潜力,预计2025年获得其联合司美格鲁肽治疗肥胖症的美国临床研究顶线数据。

研发进展顺利

歌礼制药其他重要管线推进顺利:治疗银屑病的口服小分子IL-17抑制剂ASC50,预计2025年收获美国I期SAD研究的顶线数据;治疗中重度痤疮的地尼法司他(ASC40)在III期试验中展现出显著疗效及良好安全性,公司计划于2025年寻求商业化合作;治疗实体瘤的口服小分子PD-L1抑制剂ASC61的美国I期研究已成功完成,拟于2025年寻求对外授权机会,以充分实现该项目价值。

风险方面,歌礼仍需面对创新药新药研发失败风险、候选管线授权合作不达预期风险及减重药物竞争加剧风险。

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