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国产替代及技术突破 中国高端制造业迎新动力

香港智远权证网2025年6月19日 00:00
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来源 文汇报

龙兆丰 建银国际证券研究部高端制造业分析师

伴随技术进步,中国汽车零部件领军企业将国产替代的趋势拓展至全球市场,那里拥有巨大的市场空间与合理的利润水平。随着时间的推移,中国汽车零部件供应商因快速响应、规模化生产、高稳定性和完善的供应链而闻名,与新能源汽车制造商及其他颠覆性创新者建立了紧密关系,重塑了汽车供应链,逐渐从传统国际制造业龙头手中夺取市场份额。

中国汽车领先企业的需求变化,深度绑定并积极参与这些公司在新能源汽车、自动驾驶技术及人形机器人领域的开创性发展。

4大投资主题捕捉机遇

中国高端制造业有四个投资主题:(1) 技术突破与国产替代:中国制造业通过自主研发和并购促进技术突破,推动整条供应链的国产替代趋势,从低级供应商逐步提升至一级供应商,并最终进入整车厂领域;(2)全球本土化生产:从数十年前,中国制造业就开始在本地市场为国际企业供应,随后逐渐向海外市场扩展,并在海外布局生产基地和研发中心,实现全球本土化生产;(3)重塑汽车供应链:通过与技术领先企业的深度合作,重塑汽车供应链,打破过去一级供货商的先发优势,并在新技术研发和新产能布置上快速反应;(4)具身智能的成熟:随着电控技术的日渐成熟和人工智能的快速发展,具身智能正接近量产的临界点,而中国高端制造业在此领域具有无可比拟的竞争优势。

贸易体系变革 促创新技术加速发展

在全球贸易体系经历深刻变革与调整的背景下,尽管面临一定的不确定性因素,但同时也为各国经济发展带来了新的发展机遇。例如,新的美国关税政策出台后,传统盟友如欧洲和日本正在探索替代市场和战略。

一些国家可能选择与美国相反的路径:不提高壁垒,而是开放市场,通过采用人工智能、成熟工艺芯片和机器人等创新技术加速发展。当前全球供应链的形成源自过去数十年的全球化趋势、侧重于经济效益而非国家利益。保护主义试图以国家为单位实现独立化,但其代价是效率低下且实际操作困难。

2024年9月至今年3月间,发生了几件对高端制造领域产生震撼影响的事件:(1)2024年9月,中国政府重申对资本市场和民营企业的高度重视,支持政策持续加码;(2)特斯拉在2024年10月的「We, Robot」活动中展示了新一代人形机器人Optimus;(3)2025年1月的「Deep Seek」时刻;以及(4)宇树人形机器人Unitree H1登上春晚,随后中国政府大力推广具身智能。这些事件在其间引发了人形机器人相关板块股价的大幅上涨。

危机并存 需警惕潜在风险

不过,高端制造行业未来仍面临不少潜在风险,包括由于贸易战引发的全球经济衰退、全球供应链的独立化,中国新能源汽车的产能过剩、过度竞争导致利润率下行,海外新产能的前期利润率较低,以及新赛道前期投研所带来的短期财务压力。

题为编者所拟。本版文章,为作者之个人意见,不代表本报立场。

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