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花旗首予歌礼制药“买入”评级 目标价20港元 看好口服减肥药ASC30商业合作潜力

香港智远权证网2025年6月16日 00:00
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近日,花旗银行发布首次覆盖报告,予歌礼制药(1672.HK)“买入”评级,目标价20港元。报告认为,公司核心资产口服GLP-1减肥药ASC30临床数据全球领先,有望成为跨国药企争夺的下一个重磅授权标的,叠加皮下注射剂型及肌肉保护疗法布局,打开长期价值空间。

核心资产ASC30疗效数据优于竞品

花旗指出,歌礼制药当前正专注于开发口服GLP-1受体激动剂ASC30用于治疗肥胖症,该药物正在美国开展IIa期临床试验,具备显著竞争优势。在Ib期试验中,其特定剂量组展现出6.5%的安慰剂调整后体重减轻效果,且未报告严重不良反应。这一疗效数据优于当前市场上其他同类在研产品,如礼来的orforglipron。花旗认为,随着ASC30将于2025年Q3下半年启动IIa期试验的推进,以及后续潜在的商业合作交易,有望为公司估值提供强劲支撑。

报告进一步指出,全球药企正加速抢占减肥疗法高地,肥胖治疗市场正加速扩张,而口服GLP-1小分子凭借其使用便捷性与成本优势,已成为大型药企竞相角逐的新焦点。花旗强调,罗氏3月斥资53亿美元收购Zealand的胰淀素药物,而ASC30若2029年获FDA批准,风险调整后峰值销售额预计2037年达38亿美元。花旗认为,歌礼制药在GLP-1药物领域的差异化策略、多重美国专利构建的知识产权护城河,以及清晰的商业路径,共同构成中长期投资价值的重要支撑。

差异化管线构筑护城河

此外,歌礼制药在肥胖治疗领域持续展现创新能力,其脂肪靶向THRβ激动剂ASC47凭借“减脂不减肌”特性尤为突出。该药物已在动物实验中显示出与司美格鲁肽(semaglutide)相当的减重效果,同时能更显著地保留肌肉质量。此外公司的辅助管线亦同步推进,其痤疮药Denifanstat中国III期临床数据达标,治疗成功率较安慰剂高出18.6%;IL-17抑制剂ASC50获FDA批准临床;AI药物发现平台持续输出创新分子实体。

风险方面,歌礼仍需面对包括关键临床试验结果的不确定性、合作推进节奏不达预期、以及中美等地地缘政治变动对跨境授权谈判带来的潜在影响等挑战。

总体而言,花旗认为歌礼制药在当前港股生物医药板块中具备高成长潜力与催化剂预期。若未来临床数据持续向好并推进对外商业合作,其股价有望达到20港元的基本目标,更有机会在理想情境下触及40港元的“牛市”预期。

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