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瑞银发骇人警告!如果中东冲突出现这种局面 全球股市恐暴跌30%

FX1682026年3月19日 05:57
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 财经网站Investing周三(3月18日)报道称,瑞银周三警告称,若中东冲突持续三个月或更长时间,全球股市可能面临更大修正压力,最悲观情境下,全球股市估值可能较当前水平再暴跌约30%。

(截图来源:Investing)

瑞银(UBS)策略师Andrew Garthwaite表示,随着市场面临高企的不确定性以及各种可能的宏观经济结果,全球股市短期内可能仍将处于盘整阶段。

瑞银将MSCI ACWI全球股票指数(MSCI All-Country World Equity Index)2026年的目标点位设定为1100点,略低于此前预测的1130点。新的预测相比当前1015.60点的ACWI水平,意味着仍有温和上行空间,但过程中波动可能持续。

瑞银指出,未来可能出现的结果存在特别大的分化。在较为乐观的情景下,如果中东冲突迅速得到解决,同时人工智能推动生产率更强劲增长,MSCI AC世界指数的合理价值可能升至1280点。

相反,如果冲突持续三个月或更长时间,且生产率没有提升,合理价值可能低至700点,这意味着该指数较当前水平大约还有30%的下跌空间。

Garthwaite在一份报告中写道:“风险在于,即便局势可能很快得到解决,我们也可能低估供应链中断的影响(例如印度的硫酸、航空燃油和液化石油气)。”

Garthwaite表示,若干短期不利因素正令市场维持区间震荡。风险和情绪指标依然处于偏高水平,瑞银的风险偏好指标位于其过去10年区间的前15%分位,而系统性投资者和主观型投资者的整体仓位大致保持中性,并未出现恐慌性撤退。

与此同时,必需消费品和制药等防御性板块并未显著跑赢大盘,这表明市场尚未充分计入经济放缓的风险。大宗商品市场也释放出相互矛盾的信号:一方面,原油期货显示供应中断可能只是暂时性的;另一方面,债券收益率却大幅上升,这说明投资者可能低估了通胀风险。

在这种背景下,瑞银指出,有几个关键变量值得关注。油价仍是核心因素,因为从历史上看,在过去的地缘政治冲击期间,油价与股市表现密切相关。信用利差也是另一个关键指标,而目前仅温和走阔,表明金融环境所承受的压力仍然有限。

与此同时,美国的通胀预期和工资增长也依然保持良好控制,这使得美联储能够暂时忽略能源价格推动的短期价格压力;相比之下,欧洲面临的通胀环境则更加脆弱。

从长期来看,瑞银仍然认为结构性驱动因素将提供支撑,尤其是生成式人工智能有望从2028年起提升生产率增长。

与此同时,该行也指出,尽管市场泡沫形成的条件已经具备,但当前的市场动态看起来更像是盘整阶段,而不是全面下行。

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